古巴导弹危机肯尼迪电视讲话（推荐阅读）

第一篇：古巴导弹危机肯尼迪电视讲话

古巴导弹危机:肯尼迪总统向美国和全世界发表广播讲话 2006-6-3 19:04

John F.Kennedy：

Good evening，my fellow citizens：

This Government，as promised，has maintained the closest surveillance of the Soviet military buildup on the island of Cuba.Within the past week，unmistakable evidence has established the fact that a series of offensive missile sites is now in preparation on that imprisoned island.The purpose of these bases can be none other than to provide a nuclear strike capability against the Western Hemisphere.Upon receiving the first preliminary hard information of this nature last Tuesday morning at 9A.M.，I directed that our surveillance be stepped up.And having now confirmed and completed our evaluation of the evidence and our decision on a course of action，this Government feels obliged to report this new crisis to you in fullest detail.The characteristics of these new missile sites indicate two distinct types of installations.Several of them include medium range ballistic missiles，capable of carrying a nuclear warhead for a distance of more than 1，000 nautical miles.Each of these missiles，in short，is capable of striking Washington，D.C.，the Panama Canal，Cape Canaveral，Mexico City，or any other city in the southeastern part of the United States，in Central America，or in the Caribbean area.Additional sites not yet completed appear to be designed for intermediate range ballistic missilesand thus capable of striking most of the major cities in the Western Hemisphere，ranging as far north as Hudson Bay，Canada，and as far south as Lima，Peru.In addition，jet bombers，capable of carrying nuclear weapons，are now being uncrated and assembled in Cuba，while the necessary air bases are being prepared.This urgent transformation of Cuba into an important strategic baseconstitutes an explicit threat to the peace and security of all the Americas，in flagrant and deliberate defiance of the Rio Pact of 1947，the traditions of this Nation and hemisphere，the joint resolution of the 87th Congress，the Charter of the United Nations，and my own public warnings to the Soviets on September 4 and 13.This action also contradicts the repeated assurances of Soviet spokesmen，both publicly and privately delivered，that the arms buildup in Cuba would retain its original defensive character，and that the Soviet Union had no need or desire to station strategic missiles.on the territory of any other nation.The size of this undertaking makes clear that it has been planned for some months.Yet，only last month，after I had made clear the distinction between any introduction of ground-to-ground missiles and the existence of defensive antiaircraft missiles，the Soviet Government publicly stated on September 11 that，and I quote，“the armaments and military equipment sent to Cuba are designed exclusively for defensive purposes，” that there is，and I quote the Soviet Government，“there is no need for the Soviet Government to shift its weapons for a retaliatory blow to any other country，for instance Cuba，” and that，and I quote their government，“the Soviet Union has so powerful rockets to carry these nuclear warheads that there is no need to search for sites for them beyond the boundaries of the Soviet Union.”

That statement was false.Only last Thursday，as evidence of this rapid offensive buildup was already in my hand，Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko told me in my office that he was instructed to make it clear once again，as he said his government had already done，that Soviet assistance to Cuba，and I quote，“pursued solely the purpose of contributing to the defense capabilities of Cuba，” that，and I quote him，“training by Soviet specialists of Cuban nationals in handling defensive armaments was by no means offensive，and if it were otherwise，” Mr.Gromyko went on，“the Soviet Government would never become involved in rendering such assistance.”

That statement also was false.Neither the United States of America nor the world community of nations can tolerate deliberate deception and offensive threats on the part of any nation，large or small.We no longer live in a world where only the actual firing of weapons represents a sufficient challenge to a nation„s security to constitute maximum peril.Nuclear weapons are so destructive and ballistic missiles are so swift，that any substantially increased possibility of their use or any sudden change in their deployment may well be regarded as a definite threat to peace.For many years，both the Soviet Union and the United States，recognizing this fact，have deployed strategic nuclear weapons with great care，never upsetting the precarious status quo which insured that these weapons would not be used in the absence of some vital challenge.Our own strategic missiles have never been transferred to the territory of any other nation under a cloak of secrecy and deception； and our historydemonstrates that we have no desire to dominate or conquer any other nation or impose our system upon its people.Nevertheless，American citizens have become adjusted to living daily on the bull„s-eye of Soviet missiles located inside the U.S.S.R.or in submarines.In that sense，missiles in Cuba add to an already clear and present dangerin an area well known to have a special and historical relationship to the United States and the nations of the Western Hemisphere，in violation of Soviet assurances，and in defiance of American and hemispheric policyis a deliberately provocative and unjustified change in the status quo which cannot be accepted by this country，if our courage and our commitments are ever to be trusted again by either friend or foe.The 1930„s taught us a clear lesson： aggressive conduct，if allowed to go unchecked and unchallenged，ultimately leads to war.This nation is opposed to war.We are also true to our word.Our unswerving objective，therefore，must be to prevent the use of these missiles against this or any other country，and to secure their withdrawal or elimination from the Western Hemisphere.Our policy has been one of patience and restraint，as befits a peaceful and powerful nation which leads a worldwide alliance.We have been determined not to be diverted from our central concerns by mere irritants and fanatics.But now further action is required，and it is under way； and these actions may only be the beginning.We will not prematurely or unnecessarily risk the costs of worldwide nuclear war in which even the fruits of victory would be ashes in our mouth； but neither will we shrink from that risk at any time it must be faced.Acting，therefore，in the defense of our own security and of the entire Western Hemisphere，and under the authority entrusted to me by the Constitution as endorsed by the Resolution of the Congress，I have directed that the following initial steps be taken immediately：

First： To halt this offensive buildup a strict quarantine on all offensive military equipment under shipment to Cuba is being initiated.All ships of any kind bound for Cuba from whatever nation or port will，if found to contain cargoes of offensive weapons，be turned back.This quarantine will be extended，if needed，to other types of cargo and carriers.We are not at this time，however，denying the necessities of life as the Soviets attempted to do in their Berlin blockade of 1948.Second： I have directed the continued and increased close surveillance of Cuba and its military buildup.The foreign ministers of the OAS [Organization of American States]，in their communiqué„ of October 6，rejected secrecy on such matters in this hemisphere.Should these offensive military preparations continue，thus increasing the threat to the hemisphere，further action will be justified.I have directed the Armed Forces to prepare for any eventualities； and I trust that in the interest of both the Cuban people and the Soviet technicians at the sites，the hazards to all concerned of continuing this threat will be recognized.Third： It shall be the policy of this Nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States，requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union.Fourth： As a necessary military precaution，I have reinforced our base at Guantanamo，evacuated today the dependents of our personnel there，and ordered additional military units to be on a standby alert basis.Fifth： We are calling tonight for an immediate meeting of the Organ[ization] of Consultation under the Organization of American States，to consider this threat to hemispheric security and to invoke articles 6 and 8 of the Rio Treaty in support of all necessary action.The United Nations Charter allows for regional security arrangements，and the nations of this hemisphere decided long ago against the military presence of outside powers.Our other allies around the world have also been alerted.Sixth： Under the Charter of the United Nations，we are asking tonight that an emergency meeting of the Security Council be convoked without delay to take action against this latest Soviet threat to world peace.Our resolution will call for the prompt dismantling and withdrawal of all offensive weapons in Cuba，under the supervision of U.N.observers，before the quarantine can be lifted.Seventh and finally： I call upon Chairman Khrushchev to halt and eliminate this clandestine，reckless，and provocative threat to world peace and to stable relations between our two nations.I call upon him further to abandon this course of world domination，and to join in an historic effort to end the perilous arms race and to transform the history of man.He has an opportunity now to move the world back from the abyss of destruction by returning to his government„s own words that it had no need to station missiles outside its own territory，and withdrawing these weapons from Cuba by refraining from any action which will widen or deepen the present crisis，and then by participating in a search for peaceful and permanent solutions.This Nation is prepared to present its case against the Soviet threat to peace，and our own proposals for a peaceful world，at any time and in any forumwithout limiting our freedom of action.We have in the past made strenuous efforts to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.We have proposed the elimination of all arms and military bases in a fair and effective disarmament treaty.We are prepared to discuss new proposals for the removal of tensions on both sides，including the possibilities of a genuinely independent Cuba，free to determine its own destiny.We have no wish to war with the Soviet Unionor any other threat which is made either independently or in response to our actions this week-must and will be met with determination.Any hostile move anywhere in the world against the safety and freedom of peoples to whom we are committed，including in particular the brave people of West Berlin，will be met by whatever action is needed.Finally，I want to say a few words to the captive people of Cuba，to whom this speech is being directly carried by special radio facilities.I speak to you as a friend，as one who knows of your deep attachment to your fatherland，as one who shares your aspirations for liberty and justice for all.And I have watched and the American people have watched with deep sorrow how your nationalist revolution was betrayedthe first Latin American country to have these weapons on its soil.These new weapons are not in your interest.They contribute nothing to your peace and well-being.They can only undermine it.But this country has no wish to cause you to suffer or to impose any system upon you.We know that your lives and land are being used as pawns by those who deny your freedom.Many times in the past，the Cuban people have risen to throw out tyrants who destroyed their liberty.And I have no doubt that most Cubans today look forward to the time when they will be truly freemonths in which both our patience and our will will be tested，months in which many threats and denunciations will keep us aware of our dangers.But the greatest danger of all would be to do nothing.The path we have chosen for the present is full of hazards，as all paths are； but it is the one most consistent with our character and courage as a nation and our commitments around the world.The cost of freedom is always high，but Americans have always paid it.And one path we shall never choose，and that is the path of surrender or submission.Our goal is not the victory of might，but the vindication of right； not peace at the expense of freedom，but both peace and freedom，here in this hemisphere，and，we hope，around the world.God willing，that goal will be achieved.Thank you and good night.

第二篇：古巴导弹危机肯尼迪总统向美国和全世界发表广播讲话

古巴导弹危机:肯尼迪总统向美国和全世界发表广播讲话John F.Kennedy:Cuban Missile Crisis Address to the Nation 22 October 1962 1962年10月中旬，华盛顿的美国情报官员在进行例行情报资料分析时，从飞临古 巴上空的U—2飞机所拍摄照片中发现了问题。他们确认，苏联正在古巴首都哈瓦那西南的圣克利斯托瓦尔修建基地，部署中短程导弹和运载核武器的伊尔-28重型轰炸机。从这些基地发射的导弹，可以击中从秘鲁利马到加拿大哈得逊湾的大多数美洲重要城市。对此，美国政府作出了强烈的反应。10月22日美国东部时间晚上7点，肯尼迪总 统在白宫他的书房里，向美国和全世界发表广播讲话，通告了苏联在古巴部署核导弹的事实，并指出，这一“秘密、迅速和异乎寻常的导弹设施”是&l dquo;蓄意的挑衅和对现 状作出的毫无道理的改变，是美国不能接受的”。因此，美国一方面公开向苏联发出 警告，要求苏联从古巴撤出其中短程核武器，同时以美国海空力量在加勒比海的广大 海域对古巴设立了海上封锁线，进行所谓的“隔离”。就这样，在当时世界两个超级 大国——美国和苏联之间爆发了一场危机，将整个世界带到了核灾难的边缘。------------------John F.Kennedy: Good evening, my fellow citizens: This Government, as promised, has maintained the closest surveillance of the Soviet military buildup on the island of Cuba.Within the past week, unmistakable evidence has established the fact that a series of offensive missile sites is now in preparation on that imprisoned island.The purpose of these bases can be none other than to provide a nuclear strike capability against the Western Hemisphere.Upon receiving the first preliminary hard information of this nature last Tuesday morning at 9A.M., I directed that our surveillance be stepped up.And having now confirmed and completed our evaluation of the evidence and our decision on a course of action, this Government feels obliged to report this new crisis to you in fullest detail.The characteristics of these new missile sites indicate two distinct types of installations.Several of them include medium range ballistic missiles, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead for a distance of more than 1,000 nautical miles.Each of these missiles, in short, is capable of striking Washington, D.C., the Panama Canal, Cape Canaveral, Mexico City, or any other city in the southeastern part of the United States, in Central America, or in the Caribbean area.Additional sites not yet completed appear to be designed for intermediate range ballistic missiles--capable of traveling more than twice as far--and thus capable of striking most of the major cities in the Western Hemisphere, ranging as far north as Hudson Bay, Canada, and as far south as Lima, Peru.In addition, jet bombers, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, are now being uncrated and assembled in Cuba, while the necessary air bases are being prepared.This urgent transformation of Cuba into an important strategic base--by the presence of these large, long-range, and clearly offensive weapons of sudden mass destruction--constitutes an explicit threat to the peace and security of all the Americas, in flagrant and deliberate defiance of the Rio Pact of 1947, the traditions of this Nation and hemisphere, the joint resolution of the 87th Congress, the Charter of the United Nations, and my own public warnings to the Soviets on September 4 and 13.This action also contradicts the repeated assurances of Soviet spokesmen, both publicly and privately delivered, that the arms buildup in Cuba would retain its original defensive character, and that the Soviet Union had no need or desire to station strategic missiles.on the territory of any other nation.The size of this undertaking makes clear that it has been planned for some months.Yet, only last month, after I had made clear the distinction between any introduction of ground-to-ground missiles and the existence of defensive antiaircraft missiles, the Soviet Government publicly stated on September 11 that, and I quote, “the armaments and military equipment sent to Cuba are designed exclusively for defensive purposes,” that there is, and I quote the Soviet Government, “there is no need for the Soviet Government to shift its weapons for a retaliatory blow to any other country, for instance Cuba,” and that, and I quote their government, “the Soviet Union has so powerful rockets to carry these nuclear warheads that there is no need to search for sites for them beyond the boundaries of the Soviet Union.”That statement was false.Only last Thursday, as evidence of this rapid offensive buildup was already in my hand, Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko told me in my office that he was instructed to make it clear once again, as he said his government had already done, that Soviet assistance to Cuba, and I quote, “pursued solely the purpose of contributing to the defense capabilities of Cuba,” that, and I quote him, “training by Soviet specialists of Cuban nationals in handling defensive armaments was by no means offensive, and if it were otherwise,” Mr.Gromyko went on, “the Soviet Government would never become involved in rendering such assistance.”That statement also was false.Neither the United States of America nor the world community of nations can tolerate deliberate deception and offensive threats on the part of any nation, large or small.We no longer live in a world where only the actual firing of weapons represents a sufficient challenge to a nation's security to constitute maximum peril.Nuclear weapons are so destructive and ballistic missiles are so swift, that any substantially increased possibility of their use or any sudden change in their deployment may well be regarded as a definite threat to peace.For many years, both the Soviet Union and the United States, recognizing this fact, have deployed strategic nuclear weapons with great care, never upsetting the precarious status quo which insured that these weapons would not be used in the absence of some vital challenge.Our own strategic missiles have never been transferred to the territory of any other nation under a cloak of secrecy and deception;and our history--unlike that of the Soviets since the end of World War II--demonstrates that we have no desire to dominate or conquer any other nation or impose our system upon its people.Nevertheless, American citizens have become adjusted to living daily on the bull's-eye of Soviet missiles located inside the U.S.S.R.or in submarines.In that sense, missiles in Cuba add to an already clear and present danger--although it should be noted the nations of Latin America have never previously been subjected to a potential nuclear threat.But this secret, swift, extraordinary buildup of Communist missiles--in an area well known to have a special and historical relationship to the United States and the nations of the Western Hemisphere, in violation of Soviet assurances, and in defiance of American and hemispheric policy--this sudden, clandestine decision to station strategic weapons for the first time outside of Soviet soil--is a deliberately provocative and unjustified change in the status quo which cannot be accepted by this country, if our courage and our commitments are ever to be trusted again by either friend or foe.The 1930's taught us a clear lesson: aggressive conduct, if allowed to go unchecked and unchallenged, ultimately leads to war.This nation is opposed to war.We are also true to our word.Our unswerving objective, therefore, must be to prevent the use of these missiles against this or any other country, and to secure their withdrawal or elimination from the Western Hemisphere.Our policy has been one of patience and restraint, as befits a peaceful and powerful nation which leads a worldwide alliance.We have been determined not to be diverted from our central concerns by mere irritants and fanatics.But now further action is required, and it is under way;and these actions may only be the beginning.We will not prematurely or unnecessarily risk the costs of worldwide nuclear war in which even the fruits of victory would be ashes in our mouth;but neither will we shrink from that risk at any time it must be faced.Acting, therefore, in the defense of our own security and of the entire Western Hemisphere, and under the authority entrusted to me by the Constitution as endorsed by the Resolution of the Congress, I have directed that the following initial steps be taken immediately: First: To halt this offensive buildup a strict quarantine on all offensive military equipment under shipment to Cuba is being initiated.All ships of any kind bound for Cuba from whatever nation or port will, if found to contain cargoes of offensive weapons, be turned back.This quarantine will be extended, if needed, to other types of cargo and carriers.We are not at this time, however, denying the necessities of life as the Soviets attempted to do in their Berlin blockade of 1948.Second: I have directed the continued and increased close surveillance of Cuba and its military buildup.The foreign ministers of the OAS [Organization of American States], in their communiqué' of October 6, rejected secrecy on such matters in this hemisphere.Should these offensive military preparations continue, thus increasing the threat to the hemisphere, further action will be justified.I have directed the Armed Forces to prepare for any eventualities;and I trust that in the interest of both the Cuban people and the Soviet technicians at the sites, the hazards to all concerned of continuing this threat will be recognized.Third: It shall be the policy of this Nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union.Fourth: As a necessary military precaution, I have reinforced our base at Guantanamo, evacuated today the dependents of our personnel there, and ordered additional military units to be on a standby alert basis.Fifth: We are calling tonight for an immediate meeting of the Organ[ization] of Consultation under the Organization of American States, to consider this threat to hemispheric security and to invoke articles 6 and 8 of the Rio Treaty in support of all necessary action.The United Nations Charter allows for regional security arrangements, and the nations of this hemisphere decided long ago against the military presence of outside powers.Our other allies around the world have also been alerted.Sixth: Under the Charter of the United Nations, we are asking tonight that an emergency meeting of the Security Council be convoked without delay to take action against this latest Soviet threat to world peace.Our resolution will call for the prompt dismantling and withdrawal of all offensive weapons in Cuba, under the supervision of U.N.observers, before the quarantine can be lifted.Seventh and finally: I call upon Chairman Khrushchev to halt and eliminate this clandestine, reckless, and provocative threat to world peace and to stable relations between our two nations.I call upon him further to abandon this course of world domination, and to join in an historic effort to end the perilous arms race and to transform the history of man.He has an opportunity now to move the world back from the abyss of destruction by returning to his government's own words that it had no need to station missiles outside its own territory, and withdrawing these weapons from Cuba by refraining from any action which will widen or deepen the present crisis, and then by participating in a search for peaceful and permanent solutions.This Nation is prepared to present its case against the Soviet threat to peace, and our own proposals for a peaceful world, at any time and in any forum--in the OAS, in the United Nations, or in any other meeting that could be useful--without limiting our freedom of action.We have in the past made strenuous efforts to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.We have proposed the elimination of all arms and military bases in a fair and effective disarmament treaty.We are prepared to discuss new proposals for the removal of tensions on both sides, including the possibilities of a genuinely independent Cuba, free to determine its own destiny.We have no wish to war with the Soviet Union--for we are a peaceful people who desire to live in peace with all other peoples.But it is difficult to settle or even discuss these problems in an atmosphere of intimidation.That is why this latest Soviet threat--or any other threat which is made either independently or in response to our actions this week--must and will be met with determination.Any hostile move anywhere in the world against the safety and freedom of peoples to whom we are committed, including in particular the brave people of West Berlin, will be met by whatever action is needed.Finally, I want to say a few words to the captive people of Cuba, to whom this speech is being directly carried by special radio facilities.I speak to you as a friend, as one who knows of your deep attachment to your fatherland, as one who shares your aspirations for liberty and justice for all.And I have watched and the American people have watched with deep sorrow how your nationalist revolution was betrayed--and how your fatherland fell under foreign domination.Now your leaders are no longer Cuban leaders inspired by Cuban ideals.They are puppets and agents of an international conspiracy which has turned Cuba against your friends and neighbors in the Americas, and turned it into the first Latin American country to become a target for nuclear war--the first Latin American country to have these weapons on its soil.These new weapons are not in your interest.They contribute nothing to your peace and well-being.They can only undermine it.But this country has no wish to cause you to suffer or to impose any system upon you.We know that your lives and land are being used as pawns by those who deny your freedom.Many times in the past, the Cuban people have risen to throw out tyrants who destroyed their liberty.And I have no doubt that most Cubans today look forward to the time when they will be truly free--free from foreign domination, free to choose their own leaders, free to select their own system, free to own their own land, free to speak and write and worship without fear or degradation.And then shall Cuba be welcomed back to the society of free nations and to the associations of this hemisphere.My fellow citizens, let no one doubt that this is a difficult and dangerous effort on which we have set out.No one can foresee precisely what course it will take or what costs or casualties will be incurred.Many months of sacrifice and self-discipline lie ahead--months in which both our patience and our will will be tested, months in which many threats and denunciations will keep us aware of our dangers.But the greatest danger of all would be to do nothing.The path we have chosen for the present is full of hazards, as all paths are;but it is the one most consistent with our character and courage as a nation and our commitments around the world.The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it.And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender or submission.Our goal is not the victory of might, but the vindication of right;not peace at the expense of freedom, but both peace and freedom, here in this hemisphere, and, we hope, around the world.God willing, that goal will be achieved.Thank you and good night.

第三篇：1962年古巴导弹危机来龙去脉以及其中决策分析

古巴导弹危机

1962年 | 加勒比海地区 【危机的简介】

1962年，加勒比海地区发生了一场震惊世界的古巴导弹危机。它由苏联在古巴部署导弹、美国则坚持要求撤除导弹而引发。这是冷战期间美苏两大国之间最激烈的一次对抗。这次危机虽然仅仅持续了13天，美苏双方在核弹按钮旁徘徊，使人类空前地接近毁灭的边缘，世界处于千钧一发之际。最后以双方的妥协而告终,其中有不少值得总结、反思的经验教训。【危机的起因】

1.古巴革命 1959年1月1日，古巴取得了人民革命的胜利，推翻了巴蒂斯塔独裁政权。1月13日成立了古巴共和国。宣告这一胜利的是领导人民革命的菲德尔·卡斯特罗，当时这位领袖人物年仅32岁。新政权成立初期，美国同古巴的关系还比较好。2月，卡斯特罗出任总理，4月访问美国，还受到艾森豪威尔政府的热烈欢迎。巴蒂斯塔是美国一手扶植起来的傀儡，美国政府欢迎卡斯特罗，并不是赞赏反对独裁统治，而是企图把古巴纳入美国的势力范围，巩固它在拉美的统治基础。

无论是卡斯特罗还是他的战友，本来不仅同苏联和其他社会主义国家没有任何联系，而且甚至对马列主义、对共产主义学说尚无基本的认识。

2.美国与古巴关系的日益恶化 1959年6月，古巴新政府的领导成员发生很大变动，政府重要部门绝大多数被主张实行激进政策的人所掌握。美国政府担心控制不了古巴，后院起火，动摇美国在拉美的统治基础，于是就对古巴新政权产生了怨恨和不满，并且以傲慢的态度对待古巴，企图逼新政府就范。但是古巴新政府的领导人很有骨气，并不屈服于美国的压力。这就导致了美国与古巴关系的日益恶化。1961年1月5日，美国竟然宣布同古巴断绝外交关系。同时，从经济上开始对古巴进行制裁，把一个完全依靠生产和销售糖类来维持国计民生的国家严密地封锁起来，使它的食糖卖不出去，企图通过卡断经济命脉来扼杀年轻的古巴共和国。

3.猪湾事件 1961年4月15日，在美国的策划下，古巴流亡分子驾驶美国B-26型轰炸机对古巴进行了两天的轰炸，1000多名雇佣军登上古巴猪湾，妄图入侵古巴并以暴力推翻卡斯特罗新政府。但是，美国政府没有预料到72小时之内，入侵者即被古巴人民一网打尽。然而，美国政府并未就此罢休，反而继续对古巴施加压力，继续采取敌视古巴的政策。【危机的过程】

1.向苏联寻求援助

在受到美国的强大压力时，卡斯特罗不得不向苏联寻求援助。苏联当时对古巴的处境表现出异乎寻常的关切，正是出于同美国争夺霸权的需要，想在拉丁美洲找一个立足点。古巴的求援，正是赫鲁晓夫求之不得的事情。他认为，古巴局势的发展，直接关系到苏联在拉丁美洲的影响，关系到苏联的威信及其在拉美的立脚点。古巴和苏联于1960年就恢复了外交关系。在美国同古巴绝交后，苏联就抓住机会，增加了对古巴的经济、军事援助。苏古关系的发展，也就隐伏着美苏关系的紧张和日后的导弹危机。

被逼上梁山的卡斯特罗，1960年秋天在联合国大会上发表了一番慷慨激昂的讲话。他面对坐在大厅里的美国人说，是你们促使我们寻求新的市场和新的朋友，它们就是苏联和社会主义世界。在这之后，我们就开始对这种社会主义产生了兴趣并开始研究它。

2.赫鲁晓夫的逻辑：坚决主张把导弹运进古巴，理由是：

报。他对赫鲁晓夫欺骗他的行为非常恼怒，并立刻意识到这件事关系重大。他没有料到苏联人在古巴这样一个地方会采取如此轻率和冒险的行动，没有料到转眼之间古巴戏剧性地拥有了在西半球仅次于美国的最大的、装备最好的军事力量。肯尼迪感到，苏联导弹造成了一种严重的威胁，要是不猛烈回击，那就会有损他的政府在国内外的形象，激起公众对他的不信任，并使美国如芒在背。肯尼迪决定，要使苏联明白美国不惜一战的决心。

6.海上封锁，美国态度强硬

10月22日晚上7点，肯尼迪向美国和全世界发表广播讲话，通告了苏联在古巴部署核导弹的事实,宣布武装封锁古巴，要求苏联在联合国的监督下撤走已经部署在古巴的进攻性武器。

约翰·肯尼迪认为这一“秘密、迅速和异乎寻常的导弹设施”是“蓄意的挑衅和对现状做出的毫无道理的改变，是美国不能接受的”。约翰·肯尼迪总统又以强调的语气列举了美国即将采取的海上“隔离等初步措施”。他在演说中用“隔离”一词代替了“封锁”，认为这个词比“封锁”火药味较少，比较适用于和平、自卫的行动。然而，婉转的言词并没有减弱行动的火药味。封锁命令一下达，美国地面、空中和两栖作战部队即开始集中。此外，还调集出兵古巴所需要的军需物资，开始采取保护美国免遭核袭击的种种预防措施。美国在世界各地的军队也进入戒备状态。美国总统下令，载有核弹头的美国轰炸机进入古巴周围的上空。

美国如此强硬的态度着实让赫鲁晓夫吃了一惊，于是他下令加快向古巴运送导弹及苏式轰炸机的速度。赫鲁晓夫低估了美国的情报系统和肯尼迪政府的强硬态度。

7.世界危在旦夕

在肯尼迪发表广播讲话以后的5天中，即从10月23日至27日，局势紧张到几乎“难以忍受的程度”，核战争的阴影笼罩着整个加勒比海上空，整个世界危在旦夕。

10月23日，星期二。苏联政府发表声明，表示仍要按苏古协议继续使用武器“援助”古巴，“坚决拒绝”美国的拦截，对美国的威胁“将进行最激烈的回击”。

10月24日，在68个空军中队和8艘航空母舰护卫下，由90艘军舰组成的美国庞大舰队出动了。美舰从佛罗里达到波多黎各布成了一个弧形，封锁了古巴海域。与此同时，美国导弹部队全部奉命处于“高度戒备”状态，导弹在发射台上听候指令。不仅在佛罗里达和邻近各州，美国集结了 发表了一份声明，指出土耳其与古巴危机毫不相干。这封信既反映出克里姆林宫内部意见的不一致，又使美国对苏联的意图更加捉摸不定，因而使局势又复杂化了。

此时，在全世界所有的美国核部队和常规部队都已经奉命准备随时行动，一支庞大的入侵部队也聚集在佛罗里达。双方剑拔弩张，战争一触即发。

美国官方普遍估计，在古巴的几个发射场已处于发射状态，在这种情况下对导弹发射场的任何直接空袭都可能造成美国城市上空的热核爆炸。肯尼迪和国家安全委员会执行委员会权衡了赞成与反对从土耳其撤除导弹的两种主张，讨论了空中打击和入侵的时间表。

正当国家安全委员会执行委员会在激烈紧张地辩论应采取什么对策和一筹莫展的时候，罗伯特·肯尼迪灵机一动，想出了一个摆脱危机的办法。他说，为什么不可以不理睬赫鲁晓夫的 1.美苏关系的转折

美苏更深刻的认识到双方在避免核对抗、维持核垄断方面有着相互吻合的利益。

2.苏联与美国之间差距缩小 古巴导弹危机促使克里姆林宫下决心大力发展核武器，改变劣势，洗刷当年“懦夫的耻辱”。果真到60年代末苏联就赶上了美国，使苏联在全球争夺中逐步转为攻势。

美苏之间差距的缩小也使得苏联在国际社会的野心扩大，使得美国苏联之间的碰撞更为激烈。

3.竞争在一些正式的协议里被法制化

在导弹危机的余烟中，军备竞赛得到了加强，但它在一套日益完善的制度下被处理，竞争在一些正式的协议里被法制化，如1963年的《禁止有限核试验条约》、1968年的《不扩散核武器条约》和1972年的《美苏限制战略核武器条约》。4.苏古矛盾

而对于 国在土耳其，意大利和西德的导弹都对准了苏联。苏联重要的工业中心，就是处于核弹，战略轰炸机的直接威胁之下。到1962年，莫斯科的经济、意识形态、文化和道德模式已经大大地失去了其吸引力。仅留下军事力量作为影响世界的有效方式。因此，应该秘密的把导弹运到古巴，而且要在美国发现之前把它安装好，可供发射。赫鲁晓夫认为，在古巴安装我们的导弹可以阻止美国贸然对古巴采取军事行动。除了保卫古巴以外，苏联的导弹还会使西方人所说的“力量均势取得平衡”美国人已经用军事基地包围了我们的国家，利用核武器威胁我们。现在他们会尝到敌人的导弹瞄准自己是什么滋味。我们只不过是想以其人之道还之其人过身。

2.对美国做出的反应的分析：（心理分析法，法律分析法，综合分析法）

A.美国政府作出的反应:

拉丁美洲是美国的后院。卧榻之侧岂容他人酣睡。

美国国家安全委员会执行委员会在讨论如何迫使苏联撤走导弹时，先后提出了6种方式以供选择.邦迪和腊斯克主张通过外交途径，或通过葛罗米柯或直接会见赫鲁晓夫，或向联合国提出.肯尼迪对此持否定态度，认为谈判无益于问题的解决，况且苏联在古巴的导弹工程进展迅速。美国必须立即作出反应,时间紧迫不允许通过谈判来解决问题，泰勒,狄龙等主张对苏联在古巴的导弹实施外科手术，进行空袭加以摧毁。这种方案遭到不少人的反对，认为这是冒险的不可靠的。人们担心在空袭中不可能全部摧毁在古巴的导弹，残留下来的苏联导弹可能对美国进行报复，它必将给美国带来巨大的损失。同时，美国实施空袭必将要伤害苏联在古巴的技术人员，苏联可能会作出强烈反应，导致毁灭人类的核战争。进行空袭以摧毁苏联在古巴的导弹的方案遭到了否决。麦克纳马拉提出进行封锁，不让苏联继续向古巴运送进攻性武器，在对峙中迫使苏联撤出已在古巴部署的导弹。委员会认为这是一个可进可退，留有回旋余地的方案。封锁成功迫使苏联撤出，避免直接冲突，封锁不果则可考虑采取进一步措施。肯尼迪最后支持了进行封锁的方案。

B.对封锁方案的分析:

封锁的目的在于防止继续把进攻型武器，运进古巴，并且渴望强迫撤走这些已经设置在那里的导弹。封锁是介于无所作为和战争的中间道路，这条道路利用了美国在当地常规力量方面的优势。同时的战略上，处于既可战又可和的有利地位。封锁是比空袭更为有限更为低调的军事行动，他给赫鲁晓夫提供了一种选择，只要苏联的船只避开，就可以避免直接的军事冲突。况且，在离美国不远的加勒比海上交锋，即使不可避免，也是对美国最有力的军事对抗，当然，封锁也有弊病，以空袭相比，封锁的最大缺点是实践问题，因为他不能给赫鲁晓夫和全世界一个即成事实，他的影响无法预料，持续多长时间无法肯定，同时他还给苏联在古巴导弹投入使用以足够的时间。在美国方面看来，封锁是有吸引力的，它的好处是使美国可以更有节奏的升级，根据形势发展的需要，逐步升级或者迅速升级。它可以作为向赫鲁晓夫发出的一种明白无误的而不是，突然的或者屈辱性的警告。让它们了解美国人期待它采取什么行动。由于封锁是相对慎重的，可以避免伤亡，可以避免进攻古巴领土，所以它比空袭更容易为其他国家所接受，使美洲国家和盟国支持美国初步采取的立场。

C.对美国反应的国际法角度分析:

个人认为美国在事件决策中在一定程度上考虑到了以下三个基本原则：和平解决国际争端的原则；尊重别国主权的原则；不用不法行为对抗不法行为的原则。

还在一定程度上遵守了>关于对一些军事手段方法加以限制的限制原则，以及采取的手段应与预期的，具体的和直接的军事利益成比例，禁止过分的攻击和造成过分伤害的军事手段的比例原则，而只采取了相对理智的封锁手段。

D.对肯尼迪的个性魅力的分析： 肯尼迪很可能是他的政府中最懦弱的一员——他根本不是鹰——但是他明白坚持这种立场才是更勇敢的。很多时候，寻求和平比发动战争更需要勇气。肯尼迪对危机的处理一直是果断的、是不妥协的.勇气是不偏不倚的。虽然很多人认为，那根本不是勇气，而是一种危险的固执。肯尼迪认识到，无论苏联战略能力陡增两倍或三倍所带来的军事影响是什么，政治影响可能是毁灭性的。赫鲁晓夫是想通过这一努力去重新调整由华盛顿有关没有导弹差距的承认所确立的战略平衡，肯尼迪勇敢的鹰派作风和冷静灵活的反应阻挠了这一计谋的实现，为美国人赢得了胜利，还羞辱了俄国人。

E.对如果形势失控的假设:

如果尝试失败了，美国军队在古巴已经登陆了，而且赫鲁晓夫象肯尼迪预计他去做的那样攻击土耳其导弹，那么情况又将会怎样？会发生核战争吗？这儿证据太少，不能作结论，但是总统的确发表了一些明确的命令：没有他的许可不许

发射丘比特导弹。即使在如下情况下也不能发射：“作为对我们可能正在别的地方采取行动的回应，苏联对在土耳其的部队发动核战争或无核战争。”

如果美国军队在古巴登陆，他们将遭遇到比智囊团预计的四倍还要多的配备有核武器的苏联军队。俄国人很可能会不顾一切地战斗，因为正如朱可夫所说，军队士气高昂，而且“我们无法离开古巴，我们无路可退。”在某种程度上，赫鲁晓夫预测到了这些危险。他预先命令指挥在古巴的苏联军队，没有莫斯科明确的许可，不准使用任何核武器.只有在战争已经开始而他又不能到莫斯科获取许可的情况下才可使用战术核武器。由于没有许可的行动联系和其他相关的保护措施因此当警戒水平上升时，他加强了对下级的控制，而有一些肯尼迪却没有做。赫鲁晓夫决不给其他任何人发射核导弹的权力；甚至连战略和战术核弹头都没有装到火箭上去。苏联防空部队同样也被明确命令不得向美国的侦察飞机开火，尽管它们正在搜集有关导弹部署的详细资料。3.事件对国际局势的影响：（心理分析法，综合分析法）回顾性的计算危险几乎与试着预测危险一样困难：在任何复杂的系统里，可能变糟的事如此之多以致很难知道可能是什么，或可能有什么。

A.对国际局势的直接影响:

古巴导弹危机促使克里姆林宫下决心大力发展核武器，改变劣势，洗刷当年“懦夫的耻辱”。果真到60年代末苏联就赶上了美国，使苏联在全球争夺中逐步转为攻势。

在导弹危机的余烟中，军备竞赛得到了加强，但它在一套日益完善的制度下被处理，竞争在一些正式的协议里被法制化，如1963年的《禁止有限核试验条约》、1968年的《不扩散核武器条约》和1972年的《美苏限制战略核武器条约》，还有同样重要的非正式的关于双方都容忍卫星侦察的谅解备忘录。到70年代晚期，冷战变得更加激烈更加持久了，达到了超级大国水平，影响着整个“和平的”国际体系。

B.谁在古巴导弹危机中占了上风:

肯尼迪肯定认为是美国，因而他警告他的下属们和当时仍接受这种指示的记者们不要过分公开的吹嘘而使赫鲁晓夫感到羞辱。这的确是“一个伟大的胜利”，以致总统忍不住告诉国会领袖们：“我们解决了人类最大的危机之一。”赫鲁晓夫也承认，“为了和平，我们被迫做出了一些大的进步。”“苏联人就像冒险超出自己的领地，但一旦被发现又紧张地、还带点负罪感地奔逃回安全的地方的猫.” 苏联 赫鲁晓夫则认为：“我们从肯尼迪那儿得到了无论是美国还是它的盟国都不准入侵古巴的保证，这对我们来说，是一伟大的胜利。” “美国侵略者的目的是摧毁古巴，我们的目的是保存古巴。直到今天，古巴一直存在着。由此看，谁才是胜利者呢？我们仅仅花费了运送导弹去古巴和运回它们的往返旅程费用。” 古巴 该处理是一种美苏之间的妥协，对任何一方都不是一个鲜明的胜利；而对于 里时，“我们没有逮扑任何人，因为人们的联合非常牢固。”但是现在古巴人“被一种失望、混乱和痛苦的感觉吞噬了。”格瓦拉对此更加气愤，他说：“美国人想消灭我们的身体，但赫鲁晓夫的退让却毁灭了我们的精神。”米高扬厉声回答到：“我们看见你们准备漂亮地死去，但我们相信这不值得漂亮地死。” 【结论及现实意义】

作为国际关系史经典的案例，古巴导弹危机为我们带来哪些启示和解决国际冲突的新途径呢？

A.古巴导弹危机留给我们的启示

1、正如现实主义者认为的，国际关系形势由大国所主导，小国只不过是大国间角逐中的棋子。古巴导弹危机被解决时，俄国人事先没有征求过卡斯特罗的意见。卡斯特罗因而宣称他被出卖了，并表示对这个协议将不予理睬。然而他虽能拖延时日，却不能制止危机的结束。导弹尽管设在古巴的土地上，却是掌握在俄国人手里，而且也没有一个古巴人懂得如何发射导弹。

2、在国际关系中谎言有助于事件隐秘性的达成。而欺骗将导致国际社会的不信任，这个秘密行动的最大的不利就是它要求说谎。赫鲁晓夫欺骗了肯尼迪关于在古巴有进攻性武器的存在，葛罗米柯曾于10月18日当面向肯尼迪总统说谎，那时总统已经知道正在发生什么了。“在那一行动中，它肯定使肯尼迪产生了一种个人背叛的气愤，它也阻塞了在互信基础上建立超级大国关系的道路。”还有，信任却是赫鲁晓夫所希望的。象一份最近发表的关于这次危机的一篇评论所说的：“他相信美苏关系将在肯尼迪被告知了有关导弹的事后取得进展。” 但是对赫鲁晓夫来说，欺骗不是什么新鲜玩意，他曾经就弹道导弹的能力无耻地说了好几年谎话。

3、美苏两国在事件中都充分考虑到国际舆论的反应，两国都有效的开展了舆论战，以求得到国际社会的理解与支持。但独裁国家和民主国家在制造和控制国内舆论的能力是不同的，独裁国家要普遍强于民主国家。无论赫鲁晓夫多么憎恨在土耳其的美国导弹，他都不必担心他们的国内意向。他能在最大程度上控制苏联国内的舆论。他曾长期打击克里姆林宫内的潜在对手，没有人用土耳其的导弹作为借口去攻击他们的领袖。肯尼迪不欣赏这样的优点。试图去欺骗民主总是危险的。某种程度上，独裁者总能控制他们自己的尴尬程度：如果国家要求做到似乎什么也没发生，他们通常就能设法做到。而民主国家的领导人不能，但是他们可以说虽然自己被欺骗，但并没有什么因此而改变。虽然他们的政治对手将迅速证实结果不是这样。俄国人对民主的无知又一次糟糕地帮助了他们。

4、根据贝塔朗非的“系统论”，假设把由各个国家组成的世界视为一个互相作用,互相制约的系统。则其中一个参项的变化，会引起其它参项发生变化。苏联在古巴部署导弹所引发的危机印证了这一点。另外国际关系结构取何种模式是世界各国之间的差异和力量的对比关系决定的。综合国力中的领土、资源、经济规模、军事实力和科技水平等“硬实力”决定了国家实力的大小；而民族属性、历史观念、地缘政治、国家战略等“软实力”则决定力量的发挥和使用方向。苏联试图改变地缘政治，国家战略等因素使有效的国家实力达到更充分的发挥，以求达到制衡美国的战略优势的目的。

5、在不安全的状态中，一旦在制订政策是不能只强调自身利益，因为要求得生存就得与别国在政策上偕同。这正是赫鲁晓夫在古巴导弹危机前忽视和古巴导弹危机中学到的。

6、亨廷顿在“文明冲突论”中指出国家利益源于国家的认同。当面临共同的敌人时，美国政府和人民间，各党派和各权力集团之间达到了空前的一致和认同。与此类似的还有英阿马尔维纳斯群岛战争期间的英国和珍珠港事件期间的美国。

B.古巴导弹危机所解决的国际冲突途径和范式:

1、主不可怒而兴师，将不可愠而致战。古巴导弹危机的两个主要当事国领导人在危机中采取的理智和克制态度值得国际社会各国借鉴。他们每一方都要求保持自制，避免感情用事。国际政治学大师摩根索说过，审慎是最大的美德。40年前肯尼迪对古巴导弹危机的处理彰显了他的“审慎”，这也许应该为情绪化的、意识形态驱动的布什先生提供一个有益的观照。在高度警戒的条件下管理核武器的经历表明这些核武器是多么容易失去控制。古巴导弹危机时期的美国国防部长麦克纳马拉后来说，所有三个国家在危机前后所做出的决定，都由于错误的信息、错误的判断和错误的考虑而被导入歧途。尽管错上加错，但这一切错误都在核战争的难以挽回的灾难后果面前不得不停了下来。从这种意义上说，不是肯尼迪，也不是赫鲁晓夫，而是核战争本身遏止了核战争的爆发。

2、古巴导弹危机历史时刻，出示证据避免大战。获得重要的证据会使当事国在危机中获得主动。肯尼迪为什么对以前那些声明反应如此慢，在他们的欺骗被揭露之前等待了几个月，而对在古巴导弹的做出反应如此之快呢？一个明显的理由是古巴的导弹是真的，而不是哗众取宠。

3、冲突中利用定量分析法使当事国占有了充分的感性材料，以求在