李世默TED演讲稿(英文)★

第一篇：李世默TED演讲稿(英文)

Good morning.My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.But no, I wasn’t born there.This was where I was born: Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution.My grandmother tells me that she heard the sound of gunfire along with my first cries.When I was growing up, I was told a story that explained all I ever needed to know that humanity.It went like this.All human societies develop in linear progression, beginning with primitive society, then slave society, feudalism, capitalism, socialism, and finally, guess where we end up? Communism!Sooner or later, all of humanity, regardless of culture, language, nationality, will arrive at this final stage of political and social development.The entire world’s peoples will be unified in this paradise on earth and live happily ever after.But before we get there, we’re engaged in a struggle between good and evil, the good of socialism against the evil of capitalism, and the good shall triumph.That, of course, was the meta-narrative distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.And the Chinese bought it.We were taught that grand story day in and day out.It became part of us, and we believed in it.The story was a bestseller.About on third of the entire world’s population lived under that meta narrative.Then, the world changed overnight.As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth, I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie.Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened.As if one big story wasn’t enough, I was told another one.This one was just as grand.It also claims that all human societies develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.This one went as follows.All societies, regardless of culture, be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian, must progress from traditional societies in which groups are the basic units to modern societies in which atomized individuals are the sovereign units, and all these individuals are, by definition, rational, and they all want one thing: the vote.Because they all rational, once given the vote, they produce good government and live happily ever after.Paradise on earth, again.Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be the only political system for all countries and all peoples, with a free market to make them all rich.But before we get there, we’re engaged in a struggle between good and evil.The good belongs to those who are democracies and are charged with a mission of spreading it around the globe, sometimes by force, against the evil of those who do not hold elections.Now.This story also became a bestseller.According to the Freedom House, the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970 to 115 in 2010.In the last 20years, Western elites tirelessly trotted around the globe selling this prospectus: multiple parties fight for political power and everyone voting on them is the only path to salvation to the long-suffering developing world.Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success.Those who do not are doomed to fail.But this time, the Chinese didn’t buy it.Fool me once… The rest is history.In just 3p years, China went from one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world to its second-largest economy.Six hundred fifty million people were lifted out of poverty.Eighty percent of the entire world’s poverty alleviation during that period happened in China.In other words, all the new and old democracies put together amounted to a mere fraction of what a single, one-party state did without voting.See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps.Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams per person per month at one point.Needless to say, I ate my grandmother’s portions.So I asked myself, what’s wrong with this picture? Here I am in my hometown, my business growing leaps and bounds.Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day.Middle class is expanding in speed and scale unprecedented in human history.Yet, according to the grand story, none of this should be happening.So I went and did the only thing I could.I studied it.Yes, China is a one-party state run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party, and they don’t hold elections.There assumptions are made by the dominant political theories of our time.Such a system is operationally rigid, politically closed, and morally illegitimate.Well, the assumptions are wrong.The opposites are true.Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy are the three defining characteristics of China’s one-party system.Now, most political scientists will tell us that a one-party system is inherently incapable of self-correction.It won’t last long because it cannot adapt.Now here are the facts.In 64 years of running the largest country in the world, the range of the party’s policies has been wider than any other country in recent memory, from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward, then privatization of farmland, then the Cultural Revolution, then Deng Xiaoping’s market reform, then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step of opening up party membership to private businesspeople, something unimaginable during Mao’s rule.So the party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions.Institutionally, new rules get enacted to correct previous dysfunctions.For example, term limits.Political leaders used to retain their positions for life, and they used that to accumulate power and perpetuate their rules.Mao was the father of modern China, yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes.So the party instituted term limits with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.One thing we often hear is political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms and China is in dire need of political reform.But this claim is a rhetorical trap hidden behind a political bias.See, some have decided a priori what kinds of changes they want to see, and only such changes can be called political reform.The truth is, political reforms have never stopped.Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years ago, every aspect of Chinese society, how the country is governed, from the most local level to the highest center, are unrecognizable today.Now such changes are simply not possible without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.Now I would venture to suggest the Party is the world’s leading expert in political reform.The second assumption is that in a one-party state, power gets concentrated in the hands of the few, and bad governance and corruption follow.Indeed, corruption is a big problem, but let’s first look at the larger context.Now, this maybe be counterintuitive to you.The party happens to be one of the most meritocratic political institutions in the world today.China’s highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.In the most recent one, only five of them came from a background of privilege, so-called Princelings.The other 20, including the President and the Premier, came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.In the larger central committee of 300 or more, the percentage of those who were born into power and wealth was even smaller.The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders worked and competed their way to the top.Compare that with the ruling elites in both developed and developing countries, I think you’ll find the Party being near the top in upward mobility.The question then is, how could that be possible in a system run by one party? New we come to a powerful political institution, little-known to Westerners: the Party’s Organization Department.The Department functions like a giant human resource engine that would be the envy of even some of the most successful corporations.It operates a rotation pyramid made up of there components: civil service, state-owned enterprises, and social organizations like a university or a community program.The form separate yet integrated career paths for Chinese officials.They recruit college grads into entry-level positions in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom, called Keyuan Then they could get promoted through four increasingly elite ranks: fuke, ke, fuchu, and chu.Now these are not moves from karate kids, okay? It’s serious business.The range of positions is wide, from running health care in a village to foreign investment in a city district to manager in a company.Once a year, the department reviews their performance.They interview their superiors, their peers, their subordinates.They vet their personal conduct.They conduct public opinion surveys.Then they promote the winners.Throughout their careers, these cadres can move through and out of all three tracks.Over time, the food ones move beyond the four base levels to the fuju and ju, levels.There, they enter high, officialdom.By that point, a typical assignment will be to manage a district with population in the millions or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.Just to show you how competitive the system is, in 2012, there were 900000 fuke and ke levels, 600000 fuchu and chu levels, and only 40000 fuju and ju levels.After the ju levels, the best few move further up several more ranks, and eventually make it to the Central Committee.The process takes two to three decades.Does patronage play a role? Yes of course.But merit remains the fundamental driver.In essence, the Organization Department runs a modernizes version of China’s centuries-old mandarin system.China’s new President Xi Jinping is son of a former leader, which is very unusual, first of his kind to make the top job.Even for him, the career took 30 years.He started as a village manager, and by the time he entered the Politburo, he had managed areas with total population of 150 million people and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion U.S.dollars.Now, please don’t get me wrong, okay? This is not a putdown of anyone.It’s just a statement of fact.George W.Bush, remember him? This is not a putdown.Before becoming Governor of Texas, or Barack Obama before running for President, could not make even a small county manager in China’s system.Winston Churchill once said that democracy is a terrible system except for all the rest.Well, apparently he hadn’t heard of the Organization Department.Now, Westerners always assume that multi-party election with universal suffrage is the only source of political legitimacy.I was asked once, “The Party wasn’t voted in by election.Where is the source of Legitimacy?” I said, “How about competency?”: We all know the facts.In 1949, when the Party took power, China was mired in civil wars, dismembered by foreign aggression, average life expectancy at that time, 42 years old.Today, it’s the second largest economy in the world, an industrial powerhouse, and its people live in increasing prosperity.Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes, and here are the numbers in recent years.Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent.Those who think they’re better off than five years ago, 70%.Those who expects the future to be better, a whopping 82 percent.Financial Times polls global youth attitudes and these numbers, brand new, just came from last week.Ninety-three-percent of China’s GenerationY are optimistic about their country’s future.Now, if this is not legitimacy, I’m not sure what is.In contrast, most electoral democracies around the world are suffering from dismal performance.I don’t need to elaborate for this audience how dysfunctional it is from Washington to European capitals.With a few exceptions, the vast number of developing countries that have adopted electoral regimes are still suffering from poverty and civil strife.Governments get elected, and then they fall below 50 percent approval in a few months and stay there and get worse until the next election.Democracy is becoming a perpetual cycle of elect and regret.At this rate, I’m afraid it is democracy, not China’s one-party system, that is in danger of losing legitimacy.Now, I don’t want to create the misimpression that China’s hunky-dory on the way to some kind of superpowerdom.The country faces enormous challenges.Social and economic problems that come with wrenching change like this are mine-boggling.Pollution is one.Food safety.Population issues.On the political front, the worst problem is corruption.Corruption is widespread and undermines the system and its moral legitimacy.But most analysts mis-diagnose the disease.They say that corruption is the result of the one-party system, and therefore, in order to cure it, you have to do away with the entire system.But a more careful look would tell us otherwise.Transparency International ranks China between 70 and 80 in recent years among 170 countries, and it’s been moving up.India, the largest democracy in the world, 94 and dropping.For the hundred or so countries that are ranked below China, more than half of them are electoral democracies.So if election is the panacea for corruption, how come these countries can’t fix it? Now, I’m a venture capitalist.I make bets.It wouldn’t be fair to end this talk without putting myself on the line and making some predictions.So here they are.In the next 10 years, China will surpass the U.S.and become the largest economy in the world.Income per capital will be near the top of all developing countries.Corruption will be curbed, but not eliminated, and China will move up 10 to 20 notches to above 60 in T.I.ranking.Economic reform will accelerate, political reform will continue, and the one-party system will hold firm.We live in the dusk of an era.Meta-narratives that make universal claims failed us in the 20th century and are failing us in the 21st.Meta-narrative is the cancer that is killing democracy from the inside.Now, I want to clarify something.I’m not here to make an indictment of democracy.On the contrary, I think democracy contributed to the rise of the West and the creation of the modern world.It is the universal claim that many Western elites are making about their political system, the hubris, that is at the heart of the West’s current ills.If they would spend just a little less time on trying to force their way onto others, and a little bit more on political reform at home, they might give their democracy a better chance.China’s political model will never supplant electoral democracy, because unlike the latter, it doesn’t pretend to be universal.It cannot be exported.But that is the point precisely.The significance of China’s example is not that it provides and alternative but the demonstration that alternatives exist.Let us draw to a close this era of meta-narratives.Communism and democracy may both be laudable ideals, but the era of their dogmatic universalism is over.Let us stop telling people and our children there’s only one way to govern ourselves and a singular future towards which all societies must evolve.It is wrong.It is irresponsible.And worst of all, it is boring.Let universality make way for plurality.Perhaps a more interesting age is upon us.Are we brave enough to welcome it?

第二篇：2016李世默在清华演讲稿全文

2016李世默在清华演讲稿全文

李世默在清华演讲稿全文，2016年，李世默在清华大学时事大讲堂上，借用五位政治学学者的理论，分析认为21世纪是靠改革竞争的世纪，中国共产党领导的中国必将在此竞争中脱颖而出，因为正处在少年期的中国政治体制在全世界大国中最具有改革能力。在演讲中一起上了一堂“从全球政治学视野看中国共产党与改革”的公开课从全球政治学视野看中国共产党与改革“为题从全球政治学视野看中国共产党与改革”为题李世默在清华演讲稿全文

大家下午好，很开心来清华和同学们交流。我不是老师，我是生意人，但赚钱以外，我的业余爱好是研究中国共产党。首先，我要声明我不是中国共产党党员，小时候试过，但可能因为生活作风有问题，被拒绝了(笑)。后来入党未成，一不小心当上了资本家。我平时是周一到周五做资本家，周六周日研究中国共产党。今天我跟大家分享我这些年研究中共的一点——不能说是学问——只是一些心得，希望大家能够对我的心得提出意见和批判。

我要讲的题目是《从全球政治学视野看中国共产党与改革》。政治学，英语叫politicalscience，就是政治科学，但政治学是一门软科学，就是用科学的方式来研究社会，研究政治，研究软的东西

那么科学的方式是什么呢?一般的科学方式是：第一步是要设立一个假定，拿这个假定到实验室里去验证，有的假定被验证出是对的，有的假定被验证出是错的。验证了对的假定可能成为理论。过一段时间又有人有新的假定，新的假定被验证以后就推翻以前的理论，成为新的理论。科学就是这样发展的。我今天讲的所有内容都只是假定。

今天的假定是：全世界都需要改革。

21世纪是一个在改革中竞争的时代。能成功改革的国家将是赢家，改革失败的国家将是输家。

在这场改革竞争中，中国共产党领导的中国将在全球大国中脱颖而出。所以，21世纪是中国的世纪。

全世界几乎所有国家都面临治理危机，从发达国家到发展中国家，都在说“我们需要改革，不改革不行了”。可是几乎在所有国家，改革都陷入了巨大的困境，举步维艰，四面楚歌，为什么?

我想借用五位世界一流的政治学学者的眼光来讲这个题目。塞缪尔·亨廷顿：政治衰败

塞缪尔·亨廷顿《变化社会中的政治秩序》

第一位叫塞缪尔·亨廷顿，大家都知道他写的《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》，但在政治学里我觉得他最好的著作是《变化社会中的政治秩序》。亨廷顿发明了一个概念叫“政治衰败”(politicaldecay)，这是近代政治学里很重要的一个概念。

亨廷顿在《变化社会中的政治秩序》里研究了二战以后新独立的国家，这些国家的大环境在发生巨大的变迁，可是他们的政治制度不能相应地改变，去适应新的环境。这种情况下，就发生了政治衰败。他还说在体制很稳定、很成功的情况下也会发生政治衰败。意思就是说，现有政治体制发生了所谓的固化，固化到一定程度，环境发生了变化，社会发生了变化，世界变了，可是政治体制没有办法去推动质的变化来适应外部环境和社会内在的变化，那么这个政治体制就发生了政治衰败。

曼瑟尔·奥尔森《国家兴衰探源》

第二位叫曼瑟尔·奥尔森，他的代表作是《国家兴衰探源》。他创造的概念叫“分利联盟”(distributivecoalition)。

奥尔森在《国家兴衰探源》里研究民主体制，他说民主体制里边必然出现利益集团，这些利益集团通过多年不断积累权力，形成分利联盟。意思就是利益集团权力强大到一定程度，他们可以寻租，他们可以俘获甚至操控政治体制，使政治体制为分利联盟的利益服务，而不是为整体利益服务，甚至以损害整体利益为代价来维护分利联盟的利益。奥尔森说在民主体制里，分利联盟俘获政治体制这个问题是一个无解的困境。只有两种东西可以打破这个困境，一个是革命，一个是外部的冲击。如战争。这是非常悲观的一个角度，无解。

弗朗西斯·福山：否决制

弗朗西斯·福山《政治秩序的起源》、《政治秩序和政治衰败》

第三位叫弗朗西斯·福山，最近两/fanwen/1545本书叫《政治秩序的起源》与《政治秩序和政治衰败》。福山把前两个人所创造的概念——“政治衰败”和“分利联盟”——组合起来讨论政治衰败。

第一，他说政治衰败在任何政治体制内部都可能发生，无论是威权体制还是民主体制。福山说，现代治理需要三大要素：一是强政府，二是法治，三是民主问责。

福山说美国现在正处于政治衰败中，原因之一是当代美国是强法治、强民主、弱政府。而这个局面使得美国无法推进急需的改革。

福山还提到两种问责制，一种叫自下而上的问责制，一种叫自上而下的问责制，两种制度各有优劣。

自下而上的问责制即通常说的民主制度，你不好老百姓把你选下去。它的优势在于有一个自动回应机制，你做的不好老百姓可以选另外一位。它的劣势在于分利联盟，福山又创造了一个新词叫“否决制”——“Vetocracy”，就是分利联盟把持政治体制，为了维护自己的利益，损害集体的利益。“Vetocracy”其实就是中国人说的，成事不足败事有余。自上而下的问责制，也许中国是自上而下的问责制，私人企业也是自上而下的问责制，它有强大的执行力，这来自于政治独立性，就是福山说的“politicalautonomy”。它的困境和弊端，第一是信息的困境，底下的人不把正确的信息给老板，老板摸不清楚下面到底怎么回事，导致决策错误。第二是福山说的所谓的“坏皇帝”的风险，老板出问题了怎么办?

福山说改革在美国正在失败，美国没有办法改革。为什么?他举了一些原因。第一，民主和透明成了美国改革的绊脚石。美国太多的公众参与，太多的透明，也就是说太多的民主，使这个国家的改革寸步难行。

第二，公民社会在某种程度上也不利于美国的改革。公民社会孵化了利益集团的形成，利益集团积累权力形成分利联盟，分利联盟导致否决制。在这样的公民社会里，只要有一个分利联盟不喜欢一件事，它就能把这件事给黄了。要所有人都觉得没问题才能做，结果是什么事都做不成，改革更做不成。

第三，是法治。美国的法治出现了治理的司法化。就是说所有的政治、所有治理都要通过立法。立法的过程遭到分利联盟的俘获，即便立了法，分利联盟再通过司法程序百般阻挠它的执行。

最后，是自由。福山说自由和特权是一步之遥，一不小心自由就变成了特权。美国最高法院今年判决说政治献金没有上限，这是宪法说的言论自由。就是说我自己合法赚来的钱，为什么不能在电视上买广告，说某某政客好，说哪些政策好，哪些政策不好?给政治献金设上限是违反言论自由的。而维护言论自由的后果是什么呢?当然是越有钱越牛，所以自由与特权是一步之遥。

王绍光：中国式共识型决策

王绍光《中国式共识型决策》

第四位政治学学者，是王绍光，他是香港中文大学的教授。他研究国家能力和国家建设。他近期的著作叫《中国式共识型决策》。王老师用中国在2016年启动的医保改革为案例，仔细阐述了当代中国的政治体制如何超越利益集团，成功推动改革。

中国治理模式的三大要素

我认为中国的治理模式有三大核心要素。

一是贤能治理。这是理想状态，贤能治理也会出问题。中国选贤任能的模式，就是中国的官员来自于草根，最有能耐的人通过这个体系一步步往上爬，最终进入中国的最高治理阶层。

二是实验治理。中国几十年来推/fanwen/1545行很多政策，都是从小地方先试起来。失败了就算了。成功了就让各个地方学，再成功了就全国推广。失败的成本较低。这样的实验治理只能在中央集权的国家才能实现，在美国不可能，你在旧金山实验一个东西成了，然后华盛顿让麻省也试，做不到的。

三是回应治理。有没有能力回应人民的需求，回应制度到底健康不健康。据我了解，中共其实有非常复杂和有效及时的反应机制。

三中全会是政治改革的又一个里程碑

中国30多年的改革开放，取得巨大的成就，也面临巨大挑战。

经济挑战非常严峻，中国经济模式走到现在创造了巨大的财富，但这个模式要改。环境变了，经济结构变了，所以要改变这个经济结构，可是在改变过程中增长率就会下降，又会引发其他问题。这个平衡怎么掌握，很难。

腐败是一个巨大的挑战。环境也是巨大的挑战。这么大规模，这么快速工业化，人类历史上前所未有，造成的环境问题是巨大的。

三中全会好像有600多条改革的政策，国企改革、土地改革、法律改革、经济改革。三中全会开完后，很多学者、媒体都说中国开始实施大胆的经济改革，可是政治改革停滞不前甚至开倒车。我觉得这是一个误读。

我觉得三中全会启动了中国几十年来最大胆的政治改革。很多人把政治改革的定义定死了，认为只有往某种方向去改变的政策才叫政治改革，朝其他方向作的改变，再巨大也不叫政治改革。但如果把政治改革作为一个中性词，就是对政治体制动刀，对政治体制做质的改变，我想三中全会是一个里程碑。

为什么是里程碑?我认为有三方面。

一是中央和地方政府权力分配发生了巨大变化。三中全会比较重要的一点就是国家预算，以前中国的国家税收只有一半在中央政府手里，这次把它变成了全国的预算，这是巨大的权力再分配。

二是党纪和国法的权力分配发生了巨大变化。三中全会对中纪委进行了重组，把地方纪委的决策权力从地方党委那里抽出来。这又是一个巨大的权力再分配。

三是党和国家的关系发生了巨大变化。1949年建国时引进的苏联模式“三驾马车”——人大对应最高苏维埃、党中央对应苏共党中央、国务院对应苏联的部长联席会。三中全会——我认为——把三驾马车的格局打破了。国家成立了很多领导小组和委员会，都是党中央在领导。比如，中央国家安全委员会，负责国内国外的安全;深化改革领导小组，负责经济改革政策。这是一个惊人的权力再分配，是一个巨大的政治改革。中国共产党走到了中国国家治理的前台中央。

所以，我觉得三中全会是中国改革历程中一个巨大的里程碑，很多人把新中国的60多年分成两个30年，我觉得三中全会启动了第三个30年。第三个30年最重要的两个方向：一是政治治理的完善，一是全方位民族复兴。中国政治体制改革的原动力

近些年来，政治学里流行的说法是，选举民主制国家最善于自我纠正，也就是改革，因为能够通过选举更换执政党。但是现实却恰恰相反。民主国家普遍陷入治理危机和改革困境。而中国呢?

回顾中华人民共和国的65年历史，在中共的一党领导下，中国经历的政治、经济变革，幅度和深度是近代史上罕见的，远远超出几乎所有其他国家，包括所有民主选举制的国家。为什么?我认为这是中国政治体制的独特性质的结果。在中国，核心是中国共产党，中共本身就是中国的政治体制。中国是世界上大国中唯一的一个拥有这么一个独立于社会又同时来自于社会的政治力量，正如福山所说的，politicalautonomy。中共来自于中国社会的草根，又高于中国社会的所有利益集团，这个机制就是中国改革的原动力。

尼可罗·马基雅维利：

每种政治制度都有它衰败的一面

尼可罗·马基雅维利《论李维》

回到最开始我说要跟大家分享五位政治学家，前面讲了四位，都是我们同时代的人。

第五位是一位古人，这位古人是政治学的泰斗，没有他就没有政治学，他叫尼可罗·马基雅维利，是500年前佛洛伦萨共和国的外交长官。美第奇家族复辟以后，把他打入监狱，施以酷刑，然后将他流放到乡村。在写给友人弗兰西斯科·维托里的信中，马基雅维利讲述了自己的流放生活。在漫长而平静的日子里，每当夜深人静的时候，马基雅维利总会换上宫廷的华服，进入自己的书房。在那里，他废寝忘食地阅读先哲遗篇，与古贤心照神交。只有在那样的漫漫长夜里，他才感觉不到饥饿干渴，也不再惧怕死亡。在那里，他写下了流传百世的代表作《论李维》，这本书是所有政治学的基石。

他在这本书里，把全世界所有政治制度归纳成三种：一是君主制;一是贵族制，他说的贵族制是希腊语的贵族，就是我们讲的选贤任能或贤能制，不是后来欧洲出现的世袭制的贵族;三是民主制。

他说每一种政治制度都能够表现得非常好，可是每一种政治制度都有它衰败的一面。君主制会衰败成暴政，贵族制会衰败成寡头制，民主制会衰败成放荡制。

我想留给大家的一个想法，就是也许世界上没有永远的东西。我们研究政治学，研究任何一个国家的政治体制，最值得研究的就是这个政治体制在它的生命周期里，是在哪个点上。如果在少年期那是一种预测，如果在中年期和老年期就是另一种预测。在现实中，也许没有一个政治体制是永恒的。每一个政治体制，不管是君主制也好，贵族制也好，民主制也好——中国现在实行的也许是贤能制，美国是民主制——所有这些政治体制最终都可能走向衰败/fanwen/1545，就像人的身体一样。政治学的基础就是，把政治体制、社会当人的身体一样研究。把政治体制比作人的身体，就像人小时候经常生病，每年都感冒，病历卡很厚，但是一到发育的时候什么病都没有了，到七八十岁病又回来了，也就临近死亡了。

我经常把当代中国比作美国100多年前，100多年前的美国也在发生巨大的变革，快速地工业化，那个时候的美国，它的腐败、它的暴力远远超过今天的中国，但那个时候的美国，它的政治体制在它的少年期，那些再严重的问题也没能阻挡它成为超级大国。中国的政治体制也有很多问题。每个人身体里边都有癌细胞，就看它什么时候出来。每个政治体制的基因里边也有癌细胞。我的假定是，中国的政治体制在少年期。美国政治体制，以及整个西方的政治体制，倒是一个值得研究的问题，它们肯定不处在少年期。我们要研究的问题就是西方发达国家的政治体制，在它们的生命周期里边是中年期还是晚年期?如果美国的政治体制是一个50岁的人，它还有一次机会可以重新复兴。如果是80岁呢，就像福山讲的那样，政治衰败就是眼前的宿命。

中国的政治体制处在少年期，它具有巨大的活力——也就是改革的能力，21世纪是中国的世纪。

以上这篇李世默在清华演讲稿全文为您介绍到这里，希望它对您有帮助。如果您喜欢这篇文章，请分享给您的好友。更多演讲尽在：精彩演讲望大家多支持本网站，谢谢

第三篇：李世默演讲观后感

如果他们在台下

——李世默演讲观后感

白荷菲 201355003

笔者总结李世默的演讲，主要有两个方面的内容：

1、元叙事危害着社会的正常发展。无论是原始社会到共产主义社会的单线发展叙事还是传统社会到现代社会选举创造民主美好社会的单一导向叙事都与现实相左，且引导社会走向极端的深渊。

2、中国共产党领导下的中国模式前景是美好的。不同于西方认为的僵化、封闭和不具合法性，中国的一党制模式具备自我纠错能力，能够不断进行政治改革，与时俱进；能够通过一套成熟的党内机制选贤任能；而且以其卓越的竞争力赢得合法性，获得民心。

下面，笔者将试图以哈耶克、伯林、罗尔斯和施密特的立场和观点来看待李世默的这一场演讲。作一个大胆的假设，如果这四位政治思想家当时都坐在台下，他们应该会对演讲的内容褒贬不一，但至少不是全盘否定的。

哈耶克大概是会赞成李世默对元叙事的辛辣讽刺的，因为这完全契合哈耶克认为的人无法克服其无知，人的理性是有限的。且不论是否真的存在社会发展的标准路线，即使存在人们也无法认识或验证。而哈耶克推崇的演进理性主义更是相信社会秩序是在人与人、人与自然的复杂互动中经过漫长的无目标的过程逐渐生成的，元叙事否定偶然性、否定演化过程的自生自发，无疑会受到哈耶克的批驳。在笔者看来，柏林对“积极自由”的警惕批判，认为若信奉积极自由最终的一个可能是会迫使他人自由，这与哈耶克的演进理性主义不无共通之处，在人类社会发展的层面上来看便是反对元叙事。伯林观点让人对元叙事不由得产生恐惧，若单一线性发展路线被个体或群体认定为“真理”，那么“没有人有权反对理性”，加诸于异见者身上的一切便具备了强制性与合法性。而罗尔斯对理性多元论的承认也让笔者相信其对元叙事是不屑一顾的，然而罗尔斯的自由主义观点集中于对公平正义的论证，笔者未能了解到更多与李世默这一观点相关的内容。施密特虽与前三者不同处于一个阵营，但他却从另一个角度对元叙事给予了批判，施密特坚信历史的发展是由一个又一个的“非常状态”构成的，主权者的决断在其中发挥着至关重要的作用，那么认为每一个社会的非常状态都将有同样的结果、每一位主权者的决断都将趋同也就荒诞不羁了。

行文至此，笔者发现，虽属于政治思想的不同阵营，但不论是自由主义还是保守主义的学者都倾向于赞同演讲中的第一个观点，即社会发展并非一个元叙事。而这也逐渐成为当今社会的普世价值，在这个时代若仍处处提意识形态的根本对立也越来越显得不合时宜。想来具有智慧的政治思想家们早就不在元叙事行不通这一点共识上进行争论了，尽管他们中的不少人仍然坚信社会主义远不及资本主义。

然而当落脚到具体的中国模式，思想家们的分歧也许就小不了了。在此抛开自由主义学者对社会主义的根本排斥，笔者希望将各位思想家思想中的具体观点对应上中国模式的特点和元素并加以分析。当然，今日的“中国模式”已不同于他们那个时代计划经济的社会主义了，也正因此才有探讨的价值。天马行空一想，四位学者若能目睹今日世界上的特例，其学说不知又会发生什么样的变革。由此推想，中国模式应当对政治思想界产生相当大的冲击才是，对自由主义等各学派的进一步发展也当产生影响，何以目前尚未在学术界形成一股潮流，亦或已在酝酿之中也未可知，这值得笔者进行更多的了解和学习。

哈耶克虽不会像批判纳粹主义一般指责当今中国，但对中国特色社会主义市场经济定是不会支持的，因为看得见的手的作用仍然巨大，与哈耶克所提倡的完全自由市场有一定距离。另一可能是哈耶克也许会视中国的改革方向是披着社会主义外衣的资本主义，一如现在颇有说服力的一派观点，认为中国已不是社会主义国家。而对于李世默提及的中国共产党的自我纠错能力，凭借哈耶克对构建理性主义的驳斥他是一定不会赞同的，因为这种自我纠错能力毕竟强调的是共产党内部的力量，很大程度上取决于人为努力和自我约束。坚持法治为自由护航的哈耶克对演讲中所提及的以现实竞争力获得合法性想必也不会赞成，中国共产党的选贤举能机制存在着实质法律的因素，即便具有法律依据却不符合哈耶克所说的法治。法治的确是当下中国模式最大的漏洞之一。李世默的演讲有回避这一问题的倾向，但中国要真的实现他所作的预测在十年内获得那些成就，法治是必须直面的。这里所说的直面并不只是强调其重要性，而是将解决宪法和中国共产党的关系问题提到日程上来。

中国共产党选贤任能的机制亦与伯林对消极自由和积极自由的界定相关，柏林大概会认为中国共产党所谓的党内民主很可能是摧毁个人主权的看上去科学有效的途径，实际上则走上了积极自由的危险道路，中国共产党对自我纠正能力越有信心，这套纠偏机制就越接近于绝对理性，而且会有数不清的现实理由为之作辩护。然而，伯林的多元论思想却是对中国模式有所包容的。笔者也同意其承认人类价值目标多样但并非无限，且不能错误指向相对主义的观点。中国模式的开创者邓小平“不管黑猫白猫抓到老鼠就是好猫”的话语在此维度上意义重大。

罗尔斯的政治自由主义学说认为自由宪政不是各种社会力量博弈而取得暂时妥协的结果，强调了公民对政体的理性基础的理解与支持才是政体合法性能够稳固的保证。这为人们提供了对李世默中国共产党的合法性来源论述的思考角度。在夺取政权和巩固政权的许多关键时刻中国共产党在博弈中都取得了胜利，然而这样的竞争力就足以构成合法性了吗？如果论及对其理性基础的理解和支持，又如何判断呢？李世默给出的民意调查结构一定程度上或许可以反映真实情况，然而自上而下的调查就能替代自下而上的承认吗？笔者对此仍然存有疑惑。而罗尔斯两个正义原则中争议最大的第二原则，强调公平优先于效率，则正是对中国模式现存的贫富悬殊和腐败问题的叩问。如果这位学者当时坐在台下，也许会对这一现象进行诟病。

施密特的“非常状态”理论让笔者感触颇多。而反思中国共产党的执政历程，历史又何尝不是由非常状态来决定的呢，这在新中国的六十四年中尤为明显，中国的发展都带有每一代领导人鲜明的印记，这似乎与去人格化的趋势是背道而行的。那么，在施密特看来，是不是就可以说一个政党或者政府的合法性很大程度上就取决于主权者在非常状态下的决断呢？这在中国模式的语境下，就是说中国共产党是否有民意的基础不能仅看经济成就，不能仅考察其日常的民意支持度，更要研究其在非常时刻的决断是否符合人民的根本利益。也许这让人对中国未来的判断蒙上了一丝保守主义的悲观色彩，然而，笔者却认为这个角度的思考是有利的，有助于安全的。

以上是笔者在观看李世默演讲后结合当代西方政治思潮这一门课程所得出的一些感想。非要用这四位政治思想家的观点去看待和评论这一场演讲虽然稍有牵强，但是笔者所想要表达的是，这些学说和观点对于研究当今中国模式仍有重要价值，并不因其所属的是自由主义或保守主义阵营便能断论，学术界需要的是将他们的学说分条理析地与中国当下实情作一一的对应研究，而中国模式也必将对政治学思想领域的发展产生冲击。

第四篇：ted英文演讲稿

ted英文演讲稿：犯错的价值

每个人都会避免犯错，但或许避免犯错本身就是一种错误?请看以下这篇“犯错家“凯瑟琳舒尔茨告诉我们，或许我们不只该承认错误，更应该大力拥抱人性中“我错故我在“的本质。

So it's 1995, I'm in college, and a friend and I go on a road trip from Providence, Rhode Island to Portland, Oregon.And you know, we're young and unemployed, so we do the whole thing on back roads through state parks and national forests--basically the longest route we can possibly take.当时是95年 我在上大学 我和一个朋友开车去玩 从罗得岛的普罗旺斯区出发 到奥勒冈州的波特兰市。我们年轻、无业，于是整个旅程都在乡间小道 经过州立公园 和国家保护森林 我们尽可能绕着最长的路径

And somewhere in the middle of South Dakota, I turn to my friend and I ask her a question that's been bothering me for 2,000 miles.“What's up with the Chinese character I keep seeing by the side of the road?”My friend looks at me totally blankly.在南达科塔州之中某处 我转向我的朋友 问她一个 两千英里路途上 一直烦恼我的问题，“路边那个一直出现的中文字到底是什么?”我的朋友露出疑惑的神情

There's actually a gentleman in the front row who's doing a perfect imitation of her look.(Laughter)And I'm like, “You know, all the signs we keep seeing with the Chinese character on them.”

正如现在坐在第一排的这三位男士 所露出的神情一样，笑声)我说“你知道的 我们一直看到的那个路牌 写着中文的那个啊”

She just stares at me for a few moments, and then she cracks up, because she figures out what I'm talking about.她瞪着我的脸一阵子 突然笑开了 因为她总算知道我所指为何

And what I'm talking about is this.我说的是这个

(Laughter)Right, the famous Chinese character for picnic area.(笑声)没错，这就是代表野餐区的那个中文字

(Laughter)I've spent the last five years of my life thinking about situations exactly like this--why we sometimes misunderstand the signs around us，(笑声)过去的五年 我一直在思考 刚刚我所描述的状况 为什么我们会对身边的征兆 产生误解

and how we behave when that happens, and what all of this can tell us about human nature.当误解发生时我们作何反应 以及这一切所告诉我们的人性

In other words, as you heard Chris say, I've spent the last five years thinking about being wrong.换句话说，就像 Chris 刚才说的 过去五年的时间 我都在思考错误的价值

This might strike you as a strange career move, but it actually has one great advantage: no job competition.你可能觉得这是个奇异的专业 但有一项好处是不容置疑的： 没有竞争者。

(Laughter)In fact, most of us do everything we can to avoid thinking about being wrong, or at least to avoid thinking about the possibility that we ourselves are wrong.(笑声)事实上，我们大部分的人 都尽力不思考错误的价值 或至少避免想到我们有可能犯错。

We get it in the abstract.我们都知道这个模糊的概念。

We all know everybody in this room makes mistakes.我们都知道这里的每个人都曾经犯错

The human species, in general, is fallible--okay fine.人类本来就会犯错一只走鹃鸟 都会跳下悬崖

which is fine, he's a bird, he can fly.反正牠是鸟，牠可以飞

But the thing is, the coyote runs off the cliff right after him.但土狼也会跟着牠一起跳崖

And what's funny--at least if you're six years old--is that the coyote's totally fine too.那很好笑 如果你是个六岁儿童 土狼也很好

He just keeps running--right up until the moment that he looks down and realizes that he's in mid-air.牠就这么继续跑 直到牠往下看 发现自己漫步在空中

That's when he falls.这时候他才会往下掉

When we're wrong about something--not when we realize it, but before that--we're like that coyote after he's gone off the cliff and before he looks down.在我们犯错时 在我们意识到我们犯错时 我们就像那只土狼 还没意识到自己奔出悬崖

You know, we're already wrong, we're already in trouble, but we feel like we're on solid ground.我们已经错了 已经惹上麻烦了 但仍然感觉像走在地上

So I should actually correct something I said a moment ago.我应该改变我之前的说法

It does feel like something to be wrong;it feels like being right.犯错的感觉就和 正确的感觉一样

(Laughter)So this is one reason, a structural reason, why we get stuck inside this feeling of rightness.(笑声)事实上我们这种自以为对的感受 是有构造性的原因的

I call this error blindness.我称之为错误盲点

Most of the time, we don't have any kind of internal cue to let us know that we're wrong about something, until it's too late.大部份的时间里 我们身体里没有任何机制 提醒我们错了 直到木已成舟

But there's a second reason that we get stuck inside this feeling as well--and this one is cultural.但还有第二个理由 文化性的理由

Think back for a moment to elementary school.回想小学时代

You're sitting there in class, and your teacher is handing back quiz papers, and one of them looks like this.你坐在课堂里 你的老师发回小考考卷 像这样的小考考卷

This is not mine, by the way.虽然这张不是我的

(Laughter)So there you are in grade school, and you know exactly what to think about the kid who got this paper.(笑声)你从小学时代 就知道该对拿这张考卷的同学 下甚么评语

It's the dumb kid, the troublemaker, the one who never does his homework.笨蛋，捣蛋鬼 从不做功课的坏学生

So by the time you are nine years old, you've already learned, first of all, that people who get stuff wrong are lazy, irresponsible dimwits--

你不过才九岁 你已经懂得，首先 那些犯错的人 都是懒惰、不负责任的傻瓜

and second of all, that the way to succeed in life is to never make any mistakes.第二 想要在人生中成功 就不要犯错

We learn these really bad lessons really well.我们很早就得到这些错误讯息

And a lot of us--and I suspect, especially a lot of us in this room--deal with them by just becoming perfect little A students，而我们 尤其是这个大厅里的许多人 都因此成为好学生 拿全A perfectionists, over-achievers.完美主义、永不满意

Right, Mr.CFO, astrophysicist, ultra-marathoner? 不是吗? 财务长、天体物理学家、超级马拉松先生们?

us.(Laughter)You're all CFO, astrophysicists, ultra-marathoners, it turns out.(笑声)结果是你们全成了财务长、天体物理学家、跑超级马拉松 Okay, so fine.那很好

Except that then we freak out at the possibility that we've gotten something wrong.但一旦我们发现有可能犯错 就开始手足无措

Because according to this, getting something wrong means there's something wrong with

因为依照规定 犯错 代表我们一定也有甚么不对劲

So we just insist that we're right, because it makes us feel smart and responsible and virtuous and safe.于是我们坚持己见 因为那让我们感觉聪明、得体 安全和可靠

So let me tell you a story.让我告诉你们一个故事

A couple of years ago, a woman comes into Beth Israel Deaconess medical center for a surgery.几年前 一个女人到 Beth Israel Deaconess 诊所做手术

Beth Israel's in Boston.Beth Israel 在波士顿

It's the teaching hospital for Harvard--one of the best hospitals in the country.是哈佛大学的教学附属医院 全国数一数二的医疗中心

So this woman comes in and she's taken into the operating room.这个女人被送进开刀房

She's anesthetized, the surgeon does his thing--stitches her back up, sends her out to the recovery room.麻醉，外科医生做完手术 缝合，将她送进恢复室

Everything seems to have gone fine.一切看上去都很好

And she wakes up, and she looks down at herself, and she says, “Why is the wrong side of my body in bandages?”

她醒来，往自己身上一看 说“为甚么我的左腿绑着绷带?”

Well the wrong side of her body is in bandages because the surgeon has performed a major operation on her left leg instead of her right one.她应该接受治疗的是右腿 但为他做手术的外科医生 却把刀开在左腿

When the vice president for health care quality at Beth Israel spoke about this incident, he said something very interesting.当副院长出来为医院的医疗质量 和这次意外做出解释时 他说了句很有趣的话

He said, “For whatever reason, the surgeon simply felt that he was on the correct side of the patient.”

他说“无论如何 这位外科医生感觉 他开下的刀是在正确的一侧”

(Laughter)The point of this story is that trusting too much in the feeling of being on the correct side of anything can be very dangerous.(笑声)故事的重点是 相信自己的判断力 相信自己站在对的一边 是非常危险的

This internal sense of rightness that we all experience so often is not a reliable guide to what is actually going on in the external world.我们心中时常感觉到的 理直气壮的感觉 在真实世界中 并不是个可靠的向导。

And when we act like it is, and we stop entertaining the possibility that we could be wrong, well that's when we end up doing things

当我们依此行事 不再思考我们是否犯错 我们就有可能

88.like dumping 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, or torpedoing the global economy.把两百湾加仑的石油倒进墨西哥湾 或是颠覆世界经济

So this is a huge practical problem.这是个很实际的问题

But it's also a huge social problem.这也是个很大的社会问题

Think for a moment about what it means to feel right.“感觉对”究竟是什么意思

It means that you think that your beliefs just perfectly reflect reality.这代表着你认为你的信念 和真实是一致的

And when you feel that way, you've got a problem to solve, which is, how are you going to explain all of those people who disagree with you?

当你有这种感觉的时候 你的问题就大了 因为如果你是对的 为甚么还有人和你持不同意见?

It turns out, most of us explain those people the same way, by resorting to a series of unfortunate assumptions.于是我们往往用同一种 思考方式去解释这些异议

The first thing we usually do when someone disagrees with us is we just assume they're ignorant.第一是当他人不同意我们的说法 我们便觉得他们无知

They don't have access to the same information that we do, and when we generously share that information with them, they're going to see the light and come on over to our team.他们不像我们懂得这么多 当我们慷慨地和他们分享我们的知识 他们便会理解，并加入我们的行列

When that doesn't work, when it turns out those people have all the same facts that we do and they still disagree with us, then we move on to a second assumption，如果不是这样 如果这些人和我们获得的信息一样多 却仍然不认同我们 我们便有了下一个定论

which is that they're idiots.那就是他们是白痴

(Laughter)They have all the right pieces of the puzzle, and they are too moronic to put them together correctly.(笑声)他们已经有了所有的信息 却笨到无法拼凑出正确的图像

And when that doesn't work, when it turns out that people who disagree with us have all the same facts we do and are actually pretty smart，一旦第二个定论也不成立 当这些反对我们的人 和我们有一样的信息 又聪明

then we move on to a third assumption: they know the truth, and they are deliberately distorting it for their own malevolent purposes.我们便有了第三个结论 他们知道事实是甚么 但却为了自己的好处 故意曲解真实。

So this is a catastrophe.这真是个大灾难

This attachment to our own rightness keeps us from preventing mistakes when we absolutely need to and causes us to treat each other terribly.我们的自以为是 让我们在最需要的时候 无法预防犯错 更让我们互相仇视

104.But to me, what's most baffling and most tragic about this is that it misses the whole point of being human.对我来说 最大的悲剧是 它让我们错失了身为人的珍贵意义

It's like we want to imagine that our minds are just these perfectly translucent windows and we just gaze out of them and describe the world as it unfolds.那就像是想象 我们的心灵之窗完全透明 我们向外观看 描述在我们之前展开的世界

And we want everybody else to gaze out of the same window and see the exact same thing.我们想要每个人和我们有一样的窗子 对世界做出一样的观察

That is not true, and if it were, life would be incredibly boring.那不是真的 如果是，人生将会多么无聊

The miracle of your mind isn't that you can see the world as it is.心灵的神奇之处 不在你懂得这个世界是甚么样子

It's that you can see the world as it isn't.而是去理解那些你不懂的地方

We can remember the past, and we can think about the future, and we can imagine what it's like to be some other person in some other place.我们记得过去 思考未来 我们想象 自己成为他人，在他方

And we all do this a little differently, which is why we can all look up at the same night sky and see this and also this and also this.我们的想象都有些不同 于是当我们抬头看同一个夜空 我们看到这个 这个 和这个

And yeah, it is also why we get things wrong.这也是我们搞错事情的原因

1,200 years before Descartes said his famous thing about “I think therefore I am,”

在笛卡儿说出那句有名的”我思故我在“ 的一千两百年前

this guy, St.Augustine, sat down and wrote “Fallor ergo sum”--“I err therefore I am.”

圣奥古斯丁，坐下来 写下“Fallor ergo sum”“我错故我在”

Augustine understood that our capacity to screw up, it's not some kind of embarrassing defect in the human system, something we can eradicate or overcome.奥古斯丁懂得 我们犯错的能力 这并不是人性中 一个令人难堪的缺陷 不是我们可以克服或消灭的

It's totally fundamental to who we are.这是我们的本质

Because, unlike God, we don't really know what's going on out there.因为我们不是上帝 我们不知道我们之外究竟发生了甚么

And unlike all of the other animals, we are obsessed with trying to figure it out.而不同于其它动物的是 我们都疯狂地想找出解答

To me, this obsession is the source and root of all of our productivity and creativity.对我来说 这种寻找的冲动 就是我们生产力和创造力的来源

Last year, for various reasons, I found myself listening to a lot of episodes of the Public Radio show This American Life.因为一些缘故 去年我在广播上 听了很多集的“我们的美国人生”

And so I'm listening and I'm listening, and at some point, I start feeling like all the stories are about being wrong.我听着听着 突然发现 这些故事全和犯错有关

And my first thought was, “I've lost it.我的第一个念头是 “我完了

I've become the crazy wrongness lady.我写书写疯了

I just imagined it everywhere,”

四处都看到有关犯错的幻觉”

which has happened.说真的是这样

But a couple of months later, I actually had a chance to interview Ira Glass, who's the host of the show.但几个月后 我访问了那个广播节目的主持人 Ira Glass

And I mentioned this to him, and he was like, “No actually, that's true.我向他提到这件事 他回答我“事实上

In fact,” he says, “as a staff, we joke that every single episode of our show has the same crypto-theme.你是对的”他说 “我们这些工作人员总是 开玩笑说每集节目之中的 秘密主题都是一样的

And the crypto-theme is: 'I thought this one thing was going to happen and something else happened instead.' And thing is,” says Ira Glass, “we need this.这个秘密主题就是 ”我以为这件事会这样发生 结果其它事情发生了“ 他说”但是，这就是我们需要的

We need these moments of surprise and reversal and wrongness to make these stories work.“

我们需要这些意外 这些颠倒和错误 这些故事才能成立。”

And for the rest of us, audience members, as listeners, as readers, we eat this stuff up.而我们身为观众 听众、读者 我们吸收这些故事

We love things like plot twists and red herrings and surprise endings.我们喜欢故事转折 令人惊讶的结局

When it comes to our stories, we love being wrong.我们喜欢在故事里 看到犯错

But, you know, our stories are like this because our lives are like this.但，故事会这样写 是因为人生就是这样

We think this one thing is going to happen and something else happens instead.我们以为某些事情会这样发生 发生的却是其它事

George Bush thought he was going to invade Iraq, find a bunch of weapons of mass destruction, liberate the people and bring democracy to the Middle East.小布什以为他入侵伊拉克 会找到大规模毁灭性武器 解放中东百姓，为他们带来民主自由

And something else happened instead.但却不是这样

And Hosni Mubarak thought he was going to be dictator of Egypt for the rest of his life, until he got too old or too sick and could pass the reigns of power onto his son.穆巴拉克以为 他到死都会是埃及的独裁者 一直到他年老或卧病 再把他的权力交给下一代

And something else happened instead.但却不是这样

And maybe you thought you were going to grow up and marry your high school sweetheart and move back to your home town and raise a bunch of kids together.或许你想过 你会长大、嫁给你的初恋情人 搬回老家，生一群孩子

And something else happened instead.但却不是这样

And I have to tell you that I thought I was writing an incredibly nerdy book about a subject everybody hates for an audience that would never materialize.我必须说 我以为我写的是一本很冷僻的书 有关一个人人讨厌的主题 为一些从不存在的读者

And something else happened instead.但却不是这样

(Laughter)I mean, this is life.(笑声)我们的人生

For good and for ill, we generate these incredible stories about the world around us, and then the world turns around and astonishes us.无论好坏 我们创造了啦 那包围我们的世界 而世界转过头来，令我们大吃一惊

No offense, but this entire conference is an unbelievable monument to our capacity to get stuff wrong.说真的，这整个会议 充斥着这样难以置信的时刻 我们一次又一次地意识到自己的错误

We just spent and entire week talking about innovations and advancements and improvements, but you know why we need all of those innovations

我们花了整整一周 讨论创新，进步 和改善 你知道我们为甚么需要这些创新

and advancements and improvements?

进步和改善吗?

Because half the stuff that's the most mind-boggling and world altering--TED 1998--eh.因为其中有一半 来自最应该改变世界的 98年的TED 呃

(Laughter)Didn't really work out that way, did it.(笑声)真是出人意料之外啊，不是吗

(Laughter)Where's my jet pack, Chris?

(笑声)我的逃生火箭在哪，Chris?

(Laughter)(Applause)So here we are again.(笑声)(掌声)于是我们又在这里

And that's how it goes.事情就是这样

We come up with another idea.我们重新想出其它点子

We tell another story.我们有了新的故事

We hold another conference.我们开了另一个会议

The theme of this one, as you guys have now heard seven million times, is the rediscovery of wonder.这次的主题是 如果你还没有听到耳朵出油的话 是重新找到想象的力量

And to me, if you really want to rediscover wonder, you need to step outside of that tiny, terrified space of rightness and look around at each other

对我来说 如果你真的想重新找到想象的力量 你需要离开 那个小小的、自我感觉良好的小圈圈 看看彼此

and look out at the vastness and complexity and mystery of the universe and be able to say, “Wow, I don't know.看看宇宙的 广大无垠 复杂神秘 然后真正地说 “哇，我不知道

Maybe I'm wrong.”

或许我错了。”

Thank you.谢谢各位

(Applause)Thank you guys.

第五篇：ted演讲稿 英文

ted演讲稿 英文

欢迎来到聘才网，以下是聘才小编为大家搜索整理的ted演讲稿 英文，欢迎大家阅读。莱温斯基ted演讲稿(英文版)

You're looking at a woman who was publicly silent for a decade.Obviously, that's changed, but only recently.It was several months ago that I gave my very first major public talk at the Forbes 30 Under 30 summit:1,500 brilliant people, all under the age of 30.That meant that in 1998, the oldest among the group were only 14, and the youngest, just four.I joked with them that some might only have heard of me from rap songs.Yes, I'm in rap songs.Almost 40 rap songs.But the night of my speech, a surprising thing happened.At the age of 41, I was hit on by a 27-year-old guy.I know, right? He was charming and I was flattered, and I declined.You know what his unsuccessful pickup line was? He could make me feel 22 again.I realized later that night, I'm probably the only person over 40 who does not want to be 22 again.At the age of 22, I fell in love with my boss, and at the age of 24, I learned the devastating consequences.Can I see a show of hands of anyone here who didn't make a mistake or do something they regretted at 22? Yep.That's what I thought.So like me, at 22, a few of you may have also taken wrong turns and fallen in love with the wrong person, maybe even your boss.Unlike me, though, your boss probably wasn't the president of the United States of America.Of course, life is full of surprises.Not a day goes by that I'm not reminded of my mistake, and I regret that mistake deeply.In 1998, after having been swept up into an improbable romance, I was then swept up into the eye of a political, legal and media maelstrom like we had never seen before.Remember, just a few years earlier,news was consumed from just three places: reading a newspaper or magazine, listening to the radio, or watching television.That was it.But that wasn't my fate.Instead, this scandal was brought to you by the digital revolution.That meant we could access all the information we wanted, when we wanted it, anytime, anywhere, and when the story broke in January 1998, it broke online.It was the first time the traditional news was usurped by the Internet for a major news story, a click that reverberated around the world.What that meant for me personally was that overnight I went from being a completely private figure to a publicly humiliated one worldwide.I was patient zero of losing a personal reputation on a global scale almost instantaneously.This rush to judgment, enabled by technology, led to mobs of virtual stone-throwers.Granted, it was before social media, but people could still comment online, email stories, and, of course, email cruel jokes.News sources plastered photos of me all over to sell newspapers, banner ads online, and to keep people tuned to the TV.Do you recall a particular image of me, say, wearing a beret?

Now, I admit I made mistakes, especially wearing that beret.But the attention and judgment that I received, not the story, but that I personally received, was unprecedented.I was branded as a tramp, tart, slut, whore, bimbo, and, of course, that woman.I was seen by many but actually known by few.And I get it: it was easy to forget that that woman was dimensional, had a soul, and was once unbroken.When this happened to me 17 years ago, there was no name for it.Now we call it cyberbullying(网络欺凌)andonline harassment(网络骚扰).Today, I want to share some of my experience with you, talk about how that experience has helped shape my cultural observations, and how I hope my past experience can lead to a change that results in less suffering for others.In 1998, I lost my reputation and my dignity.I lost almost everything, and I almost lost my life.Let me paint a picture for you.It is September of 1998.I'm sitting in a windowless office room inside the Office of the Independent Counsel underneath humming fluorescent lights.I'm listening to the sound of my voice, my voice on surreptitiously taped phone calls that a supposed friend had made the year before.I'm here because I've been legally required to personally authenticate all 20 hours of taped conversation.For the past eight months, the mysterious content of these tapes has hung like the Sword of Damocles over my head.I mean, who can remember what they said a year ago? Scared and mortified, I listen, listen as I prattle on about the flotsam and jetsam of the day;listen as I confess my love for the president, and, of course, my heartbreak;listen to my sometimes catty, sometimes churlish, sometimes silly self being cruel, unforgiving, uncouth;listen, deeply, deeply ashamed, to the worst version of myself,a self I don't even recognize.A few days later, the Starr Report is released to Congress, and all of those tapes and trans, those stolen words, form a part of it.That people can read the trans is horrific enough, but a few weeks later, the audio tapes are aired on TV, and significant portions made available online.The public humiliation was excruciating.Life was almost unbearable.This was not something that happened with regularity back then in 1998, and by this, I mean the stealing of people's private words, actions, conversations or photos, and then making them public--public without consent, public without context, and public without compassion.Fast forward 12 years to XX, and now social media has been born.The landscape has sadly become much more populated with instances like mine, whether or not someone actually make a mistake, and now it's for both public and private people.The consequences for some have become dire, very dire.I was on the phone with my mom in September of XX, and we were talking about the news of a young college freshman from Rutgers University named Tyler Clementi.Sweet, sensitive, creative Tyler was secretly webcammed by his roommate while being intimate with another man.When the online world learned of this incident, the ridicule and cyberbullying ignited.A few days later, Tyler jumped from the George Washington Bridge to his death.He was 18.My mom was beside herself about what happened to Tyler and his family, and she was gutted with painin a way that I just couldn't quite understand, and then eventually I realized she was reliving 1998, reliving a time when she sat by my bed every night, reliving a time when she made me shower with the bathroom door open, and reliving a time when both of my parents feared that I would be humiliated to death,literally.Today, too many parents haven't had the chance to step in and rescue their loved ones.Too many have learned of their child's suffering and humiliation after it was too late.Tyler's tragic, senseless death was a turning point for me.It served to recontextualize my experiences, and I then began to look at the world of humiliation and bullying around me and see something different.In 1998, we had no way of knowing where this brave new technology called the Internet would take us.Since then, it has connected people in unimaginable ways, joining lost siblings, saving lives, launching revolutions, but the darkness, cyberbullying, and slut-shaming that I experienced had mushroomed.Every day online, people, especially young people who are not developmentally equipped to handle this, are so abused and humiliated that they can't imagine living to the next day, and some, tragically, don't, and there's nothing virtual about that.ChildLine, a nonprofit that's focused on helping young people on various issues,released a staggering statistic late last year: From XX to XX, there was an 87 percent increase in calls and emails related to cyberbullying.A meta-analysis done out of the Netherlands showed that for the first time, cyberbullying was leading to suicidal ideations more significantly than offline bullying.And you know what shocked me, although it shouldn't have, was other research last year that determined humiliation was a more intensely felt emotion than either happiness or even anger.Cruelty to others is nothing new, but online, technologically enhanced shaming is amplified, uncontained, and permanently accessible.The echo of embarrassment used to extend only as far as your family, village, school or community, but now it's the online community too.Millions of people, often anonymously, can stab you with their words, and that's a lot of pain, and there are no perimeters around how many people can publicly observe you and put you in a public stockade.There is a very personal price to public humiliation, and the growth of the Internet has jacked up that price.For nearly two decades now, we have slowly been sowing the seeds of shame and public humiliation in our cultural soil, both on-and offline.Gossip websites, paparazzi, reality programming, politics, news outlets and sometimes hackers all traffic in shame.It's led to desensitization and a permissive environment online which lends itself to trolling, invasion of privacy, and cyberbullying.This shift has created what Professor Nicolaus Mills calls a culture of humiliation.Consider a few prominent examples just from the past six months alone.Snapchat, the service which is used mainly by younger generationsand claims that its messages only have the lifespan of a few seconds.You can imagine the range of content that that gets.A third-party app which Snapchatters use to preserve the lifespan of the messages was hacked, and 100,000 personal conversations, photos, and videos were leaked online to now have a lifespan of forever.Jennifer Lawrence and several other actors had their iCloud accounts hacked, and private, intimate, nude photos were plastered across the Internet without their gossip website had over five million hits for this one story.And what about the Sony Pictures cyberhacking? The documents which received the most attention were private emails that had maximum public embarrassment value.But in this culture of humiliation, there is another kind of price tag attached to public shaming.The price does not measure the cost to the victim, which Tyler and too many others, notably women, minorities,and members of the LGBTQ community have paid, but the price measures the profit of those who prey on them.This invasion of others is a raw material, efficiently and ruthlessly mined, packaged and sold at a profit.A marketplace has emerged where public humiliation is a commodity and shame is an is the money made? Clicks.The more shame, the more clicks.The more clicks, the more advertising dollars.We're in a dangerous cycle.The more we click on this kind of gossip, the more numb we get to the human lives behind it, and the more numb we get, the more we click.All the while, someone is making money off of the back of someone else's suffering.With every click, we make a choice.The more we saturate our culture with public shaming, the more accepted it is, the more we will see behavior like cyberbullying, trolling, some forms of hacking, and online harassment.Why? Because they all have humiliation at their cores.This behavior is a symptom of the culture we've created.Just think about it.Changing behavior begins with evolving beliefs.We've seen that to be true with racism, homophobia, and plenty of other biases, today and in the past.As we've changed beliefs about same-sex marriage, more people have been offered equal freedoms.When we began valuing sustainability, more people began to recycle.So as far as our culture of humiliation goes, what we need is a cultural revolution.Public shaming as a blood sport has to stop, and it's time for an intervention on the Internet and in our culture.The shift begins with something simple, but it's not easy.We need to return to a long-held value of compassion--compassion and empathy.Online, we've got a compassion deficit, an empathy crisis.Researcher Brené Brown said, and I quote, “Shame can't survive empathy.” Shame cannot survive empathy.I've seen some very dark days in my life, and it was the compassion and empathy from my family, friends, professionals, and sometimes even strangers that saved me.Even empathy from one person can make a difference.The theory of minority influence, proposed by social psychologist Serge Moscovici, says that even in small numbers, when there's consistency over time, change can happen.In the online world, we can foster minority influence by becoming upstanders.To become an upstander means instead of bystander apathy, we can post a positive comment for someone or report a bullying situation.Trust me, compassionate comments help abate the negativity.We can also counteract the culture by supporting organizations that deal with these kinds of issues, like the Tyler Clementi Foundation in the , In the , there's Anti-Bullying Pro, and in Australia, there's Project Rockit.We talk a lot about our right to freedom of expression, but we need to talk more about our responsibility to freedom of expression.We all want to be heard, but let's acknowledge the difference between speaking up with intention and speaking up for attention.The Internet is the superhighway for the id, but online, showing empathy to others benefits us all and helps create a safer and better world.We need to communicate online with compassion, consume news with compassion, and click with compassion.Just imagine walking a mile in someone else's headline.I'd like to end on a personal note.In the past nine months, the question I've been asked the most is why.Why now? Why was I sticking my head above the parapet? You can read between the lines in those questions, and the answer has nothing to do with politics.The top note answer was and is because it's time: time to stop tip-toeing around my past;time to stop living a life of opprobrium;and time to take back my narrative.It's also not just about saving myself.Anyone who is suffering from shame and public humiliation needs to know one thing: You can survive it.I know it's hard.It may not be painless, quick or easy, but you can insist on a different ending to your story.Have compassion for yourself.We all deserve compassion, and to live both online and off in a more compassionate world.Thank you for listening.