第一篇:2016年大学英语六级作文题目预测人口老龄化
写写帮文秘助手(www.xiexiebang.com)之2016年大学英语六级作文题目预测:人口老龄化
aging of the population
1.我国人口老龄化现象日趋明显
2.人口老龄化带来的问题
3.如何妥善解决人口老龄化问题
【范文】
aging of the population
population officials and demographers have much to worry about china’s increasingly aging population.it is estimated that the proportion of people aged 60 or older in china will rise to 11.8 percent in 2020.by the middle of this century, people aged beyond 60 will take up 27.4 percent of the total population — that means one out of every four people will be senior!
the aging population poses a serious challenge to families and the society.on the one hand, with families becoming smaller and living pace escalating, it is even graver for families to care for aged members adequately.on the other hand, aging causes a relative decline in working force.consequently, the productivity of the whole society will be affected to some extent.the rapidity of the population’s aging has made it more urgent for the adoption of countermeasures.there is no doubt that the key is to build a solid economic foundation.meanwhile, importance should be attached to overall social progress by changing the backward situation in social security, welfare and service.what’s
more, family care and community-based services should also be encouraged.
第二篇:大学英语六级作文题目
提纲式作文:现象阐述型、解决问题型、观点对比型 图表类作文 应用文
现象阐述型
2011年6月六级真题作文
Directions: For this part, you are allowed 30 minutes to write a short essay on the topic of Certificate Craze.You should write at least 150 words following the outline given below: 1.现在许多人热衷于各类证书考试 2.其目的各不相同 3.在我看来 2010年12月六级真题作文
1、当今社会,高校排名很流行
2、个人看法不同
3、我自己的观点 08年12月六级真题作文
How to Improve Students’ Mental Health 1.大学生心理健康很重要 2.为此,学校可以… 3.我们自己应该… 2008年6月六级真题作文
Will E-books Replace Traditional Books?
1.随着信息技术的发展,电子图书越来越多 2.有人认为电子图书会取代传统图书,理由是…… 3.我的看法
2007年12月六级真题作文
1、如今数字化产品得到越来越广泛的使用,例如
2、数字化产品的使用对人工作、学习、生活产生的影响
解决问题型
2010年6月六级真题作文
Due Attention Should Be Given To the Study of Chinese 1近年来在学生中出现了忽视中文学习的现象; 2 出现这种现象的原因和后果; 3 针对这种现象,我认为…… 2006年12月六级真题作文
1.阅读经典书籍对人的成长至关重要
2.现在愿意阅读经典的人越来越少,原因是…… 3.我们大学生应该怎么做 2005年6月六级真题作文 1.目前盗版的现象比较严重 2.造成这种现象的原因及危害 3.我们应该怎么做
Useful words and expressions:
盗版:piracy(n.)盗版产品:pirated products 知识产权::intellectual property rights 侵犯版权:infringe sb's copyright;copyright infringement 2009年12月四级英语作文真题
irections: For this part, you are allowed thirty minutes to write an essay entitled Creating a Green Campus.You should write at least 100 words and you should base your composition on the outline(given in Chinese)below: 1.绿色校园的重要性; 2.什么样的校园是绿色的? 3.我们应该怎么做。
观点对比型
2009年6月六级真题作文
Directions: For this part, you are allowed thirty minutes to write a composition on the topic The Importance of Name.You should write at least 150 words, and base your composition on the outline(given in Chinese)below: 1.有人认为名字很重要 2.有人认为名字不重要 3.你的看法
2009年12月六级真题作文
现在有不少家长送孩子参加各种艺术班;
1、对这种做法有人表示支持,2、有人并不赞成;
3、我认为…
2007年6月六级真题作文
1、有人做好事期望得到回报;
2、有人认为应该像雷锋那样做好事不图回报;
3、我的观点。
2008年6月四级作文真题
Directions: For this part, you are allowed 30 minutes to write a composition on the topic The Internet.You should write no less than 120 words and you should base your composition on the outline(given in Chinese)below: 1.有人认为网络可以让学习、工作更有效率; 2.还有人认为网络让青少年沉迷,进而影响学习; 3.你对网络的看法
图表题型
2006年6月六级真题作文 题目:国外旅游
1。近十年来某城市越来越多人选择出去旅游
2。出现这种现象的原因 3。这种现象可能产生的影响 表格:
1995 2000 2005 1万人
近4万 12万以上 2012年12月四级作文:
Directions: For this part, you are allowed 30 minutes to write A Letter Applying for a Bank Loan.You should write at least 120 words following the outline given below in Chinese。
1.你的基本情况your basic information1 2.你申请贷款的原因、数额及用途you reason for the loan, the amount and purpose 3.你如何保证专款专用以及你的还款打算
应用文体: 书信:
2005年12月六级真题作文 A Letter of Declining a job offer 1.对公司提供职位表示感谢
2.解释为何不能接受所提供职位的原因 3.希望予以谅解,并表达对公司的良好祝愿.呼吁信
2005年1月六级真题作文 Directions:
1、对病人的简单介绍:目前的病情和家庭情况
2、目前的困难:无法继续承担医疗费用,需要护理
3、希望捐助,联系方式 演讲致辞
2005年1月四级作文真题
Directions: For this part, you are allowed 30 minutes to write a campaign speech in support of your election to the post of chairman of the student union.You should write at least 120 words following the outline given below in Chinese.A Campaign Speech 1.你认为自己具备是什么条件(能力,性格,爱好)可以胜任学生会主席工作,2.如果当选你将会为本校同学做什么 C.启事
2006年6月四级作文真题
An announcement for a voluntary program 1.校学生会组织一次暑假志愿活动,现招聘志愿者; 2.本次志愿者活动目的 内容及安排; 3.报名条件和联系方式
考试的命题作文大都是议论文结构,一般来说题目内容应该是考生所熟悉的,能够有话可说的,如那些社会热点问题就是经常出的题目。但不是所有的热点问题都会成为考试题目。考试题目还要和考试对象的文化背景,年龄特点相一致,所以有关大学生生活,学习,理想等的题目经常出现。
作文题目会考虑到考生的语言水平,也就是说学生要求掌握的词汇和结构能否足够表达所考的题目。
• 总的来说,根据学生要求掌握的词汇,根据学生的知识结构,年龄特点和文化背景,出题的范围可大致如下:
• 科学技术:计算机,克隆,电视,小汽车等对社会和生活的影响
• 社会问题:如住房,交通,就业,犯罪,婚姻,环境,能源和广告等
• 校园生活:如学习方式,考试,课余活动,体育锻炼,人际交往和兴趣爱好等
• 青少年问题:如父子代沟,抽烟吸毒,个人思想,职业选择,文化教育和成功失败等
• 文化教育:阅读,道德修养,出国留学,学生减负,教育与成长等
第三篇:2016年大学英语六级作文题目预测微博
写写帮文秘助手(www.xiexiebang.com)之2016年大学英语六级作文题目预测:微博
on the popularity of microblog
1.目前微博很流行
2.微博流行的原?因
3.可能存在的问题
on the popularity of microblog
with the improvement of microblog services and the influence of some “star microbloggers”, most of whom are celebrities, microblog is becoming an important and convenient way for people to express their opinions and communicate with others.now, more and more people start to use microblog services provided by different websites.however, microblog might give rise to some problems as well.some microbloggers may become so dependent on microblogs that they would rather express their thoughts and feelings by writing them down in the microblog than communicate with family members or friends.day by day, microblogs tend to draw them away from their real life.what’s worse, lack of face-to-face communication with others might isolate microbloggers from the society, which would do harm to their mental health.in my view, microblog is a good platform for people to share their personal experiences and communicate with others.but microbloggers should also have a rational attitude toward it and avoid spending too much time on it.after all, sitting in front of the cold screen for a long period of time does no good to their health.
第四篇:大学英语六级作文预测
2011
12
学 语 级 级
预测: 预测:
驾车
学 语 级 级
预测 题:
Food Safety
Currently, up.Currently, many problems concerning the safety of food have popped up.As for me, I believe at least three factors account for this issue.
many First, I observe that profits drive many food producers to commit illegal things.They aim to gain more consumers’ money at the expense of consumers’ health.Second, the overuse of agricultural pesticide has enormous resulted in the degradation of food quality.The excessive pesticide bears enormous health hazard for Furthermore, make people.Furthermore, some food producers inject hormones into domestic animals so as to make people’ them grow more quickly and thus they can turn in more profit.As a result, people’s health has been seriously disturbed.
All in all, food safety is such a great concern, and we all should do establish laws and implement them effectively to avoid producing toxic foods.
学 语 级 级
预测 题:
驾车
Drunken Driving
Nobody could have failed to notice the fact that drunken driving has been a grave problem with which confronted.several we are confronted.Generally speaking, there are several reasons accounting for /behind this people’ phenomenon.Firstly, recent decades have witnessed the rapid development of people’s living everstandards.As a result, cars gained ever-increasing popularity and have found their way into our everyday life.Secondly, people participate in more activities or banquets than ever before, where they will drink liquor/strong wine.Then, they may get drunk but continue to drive.
Drunken driving is bound to generate severe consequence if we keep turning a blind eye to it.First and pedestrians/goers, foremost, this behavior will directly threaten the safety of drivers, passengers and pedestrians/goers, resulting in traffic accidents, injuries and even deaths.Besides, treating the injured and repairing broken cars mean a grievous waste of money, time and resources.Last but not least, this irresponsible
nightmare, driving will make the road a nightmare, and thus, it will cause serious losses of faith in governments and the society.
In view of the seriousness of this problem, effective measures must be taken before things get worse.First, it is essential that the supervisory role of laws and regulations should be strengthened to punish regulations those performing drunken driving.Secondly, the public, especially drivers, should enhance their awareness of public safety.With stringent laws and alert public, it will only a matter of time for drunken to driving to become things of past.2011 12 学 语 级 级 预测: 预测:
预测 题:
As is apparently psychological miscellaneous thoughtthought-provoking
chart betrayed in the bar chart above, at present university students suffer from problems of various kinds, among which spiritual depression ,
suicideproblems, and suicide-committing top the list.What
the chart reveals is indeed.
The implied meaning of the chart above can be briefly stated as follows.On the one hand, university students are encountering more psychological problems than ever before.The fact can be attributed to fact many factors.Most university students are overloaded with study and haunted by employment pressure.As young and inexperienced people, they are also facing emotional dilemma emotional of human interrelationship.Besides, some students are in a financial predicament and trial.On the
other hand, necessary psychological work for university student is a must for the time being.It is quite students shocking that at least forty percent of university students suffer from spiritual depression.The very fact should not be neglected.Effective countermeasures must be taken to reverse the current grim situation.In sum, the psychological problems should be put on our agenda.
In my view, great efforts must be made so as to ensure the healthy growth of university students.To begin with, we must have a good understanding of the necessity of psychological instruction and What’ guidance among university students.What’s more, government departments at different levels and relaxing related organizations should make joint efforts to create a more relaxing environment for university students.Only in this way can university students develop well both physically and psychologically.
Medical researchers have proved that what people eat affects their health.They advise people to eat vegetables more fruit and vegetables and less meat such as beef and pork because meat contains more fat than poultry and fish.Fat can build up in the arteries, block the flow of blood, and cause a heart
attack or stroke.2011 12 学 语 级 级 预测: 预测:竞争
学 语 级 级
预测 题:竞争
Competition is a common phenomenon in our social life.We compete when we play games and when we try to do better than others in our study.There is constant competition for academic degrees, jobs, customers, money and so forth.In a sense, competition is one of the motive force to the development of society.
In fact, the only way our world reward people is to give laurels to the winners, not to the losers.What activities, is more, by attempting to compete at different activities, we learn to win and lose, gain experience and know our strengths and weaknesses.Competition prepares us for the tough things in life.
possession, should To go ahead, to acquire possession, we should be competitive.To us, industriousness and ambition are positive values.
trophy, Whether in games, in study or in business alike, the aim is to win the game, the degree, the trophy, and the contract.Learning to be competitive is clearly the best preparation for life.2011 碳、6 学 语 级 驾、竞争 2011 12 学 语 级 级 预测: 预测: 碳 预测 关 :
学 语 级 级
预测 题: 碳
1.2.3.
碳 碳 们应该
们
欢 处
去
[
]
]
lowNowadays, there are a considerable number of individuals who prefer to lead a low-carbon lifestyle which find expression in the fact that more and more commuters are using public transportation system in their daily life.
Low carbon lifestyle can endow us and our society with numerous benefits.Firstly, it goes beyond doubt that low carbon lifestyle contributes a lot to the environmental protection and it is a favorable way to slow down the rate of climate change of our earth, which also means a lot to our health.
lowWe are supposed to undertake the responsibility to lead a low-carbon lifestyle, which is of great significance.significance.And there is a diversity of measures we can take so as to lead such an environmental-friendly life.For one thing, we are expected to minimize the use of private cars, which environmentalemit a large amount of greenhouse gases.For another, we are supposed to cultivate the public awareness of energy conservation for energy in the world today is decreasing rapidly.For instance, we can turn off electrical appliances if not necessary as well as using renewable materials.Furthermore, leisure, carbonat our leisure, we can seek opportunities to plant more trees which can absorb carbon-dioxide.
In brief, low-carbon lifestyle is nothing but the best choice for us and only in this way can we form a lowharmonious harmonious relationship with the environment.2011 6 级 预测 关 2011 12 : 学 语 级 级 预测: 预测: 驾车
学 语 级 级
预测 题:
驾车
Drunken Driving
Nobody could have failed to notice the fact that drunken driving has been a grave problem with which confronted.we are confronted.Generally speaking, there are several reasons accounting for /behind this people’ phenomenon.Firstly, recent decades have witnessed the rapid development of people’s living everstandards.As a result, cars gained ever-increasing popularity and have found their way into our everyday life.Secondly, people participate in more activities or banquets than ever before, where they will drink liquor/strong wine.Then, they may get drunk but continue to drive.
Drunken driving is bound to generate severe consequence if we keep turning a blind eye to it.First and pedestrians/goers, behavior foremost, this behavior will directly threaten the safety of drivers, passengers and pedestrians/goers,
repairing resulting in traffic accidents, injuries and even deaths.Besides, treating the injured and repairing broken cars mean a grievous waste of money, time and resources.Last but not least, this irresponsible nightmare, driving will make the road a nightmare, and thus, it will cause serious losses of faith in governments and the society.
In view of the seriousness of this problem, effective measures must be taken before things get worse.First, it is essential that the supervisory role of laws and regulations should be strengthened to punish those performing drunken driving.Secondly, the public,
especially drivers, should enhance their safety.awareness of public safety.With stringent laws and alert public, it will only a matter of time for drunken driving to become things of past.2011 12 学 语 级 级 预测: 预测: 学校园学术诚 缺
学 语 级 级
预测 题: 学校园学术诚 缺
Academic Dishonesty on Campus
It is shown in the recent surveys that many college students copy papers from the Internet to save the opinion,trouble of doing their homework.In my opinion,this kind of academic dishonesty is very harmful to these students.
First, copying papers from the Internet makes students lazy.Copying papers from the Internet seems easy and can save some time and trouble, therefore, students will do this more and more often and seldom work hard to complete their papers on their own.In other words, students will become lazier and lazier.Second.students can learn little from copying others’ work.Students cannot improve their others’ abilities just by downloading papers from the Internet without their own thinking and working.What’s their What’ cheating, worse, once students get used to academic cheating, they may also cheat in other cases in the future, them. which will be very dangerous for them.
prevent To prevent academic dishonesty on campus, some punishment by the school may be necessary.But the most important thing is that teachers should talk to those students, and make them aware of the others’ fact that copying others’ work cannot bring them any knowledge and that only by working hard can they improve themselves 2011 2011 12 学 语 级 级 12 学 语 级 级 预测: 预测:
预测: 预测:网
1.网 2.3.你 看
来 对,
Online Chatting With the development of Internet online chatting is becoming increasing popular with many people, especially young people.people's However, people's opinions about it vary greatly.Some think that it has more problems than benefits.On the one hand , it is a waste of time, energy and money as it doesn't produce any useful cyberspace information and products.On the other hand, it is misleading because cyberspace is actually an imaginary space where things are unreal of fictional.But the advocates of online chatting think it is a good way of recreation, which is both exciting and relaxing.Besides, it helps them release their emotions and pressure freely and safely.Therefore, freely it is very useful and wonderful.As far as I'm concerned, whether online chatting is good or bad depends on the person who chats.So long as we keep ourselves under good control, we can use it properly and benefit from it.2011 来 1.2.3.认为… 认为… Is It A Waste of Talent? Nowadays there are many reports on university graduates who choose jobs that have nothing to housekeeper.public’ do with their majors, such as painter and housekeeper.And this phenomenon has attracted the public’ s attention.Many people maintain their choices are
understandable and we shouldn't use our stereotypes to judge their behaviors.They also hold that we should support them because they are the who pioneers who give us a new understanding of job hunting in the competitive job market.However, there are also a lot of people who oppose their actions.They say that it is a big waste of talent as well as education resources since these jobs don't need the knowledge they obtained from school.What's more, they think that college graduates, especially those from prestigious universities, choose these jobs just because they are afraid of the fierce competition in job hunting.As far as I'm concerned, choosing a career irrelevant to one's major doesn't mean the college education is of no use at all.Besides, everyone has the right to choose what he or she wants, thus there is nothing wrong for these graduates to choose occupations that they can get satisfaction and fun from.12 学 语 级 级 赞 对 预测: 预测: 学 工
选择当家 学 毕业 选择当家教、对这种 对
第五篇:中国人口老龄化发展趋势预测研究报告
21世纪是人口老龄化的时代。目前,世界上所有发达国家都已经进入老龄社会,许多发展中国家正在或即将进入老龄社会。1999年,中国也进入了老龄 社会,是较早进入老龄社会的发展中国家之一。中国是世界上老年人口最多的国家,占全球老年人口总量的五分之一,中国的人口老龄化不仅是中国自身的问题,而 且关系到全球人口老龄化的进程,备受世界关注。为了摸清中国老年人口及老龄化发展的基本态势,掌握未来中国老龄问题的基本国情,全国老龄工作委员会办公室 对中国人口老龄化的发展趋势进行了专题预测研究,基本情况如下。
一、中国人口老龄化的压力已经开始显现
目前,中国已有21个省(区、市)成为人口老年型地区。自1982年第三次人口普查到2004年的22年间,中国老年人口平均每年增加302 万,年平均增长速度为2.85%,高于1.17%的总人口增长速度。2004年底,中国60岁及以上老年人口达到1.43亿,占总人口的10.97%。老 龄化水平超过全国平均值的有上海(18.48%)、天津(13.75%)、江苏(13.75%)、北京(13.66%)、浙江(13.18%)、重庆(12.84%)、辽宁(12.59%)、山东(12.31%)、四川(11.59%)、湖南(11.51%)和安徽(11.18%)等11个省市。
人口老龄化给中国的经济、社会、政治、文化等方面的发展带来了深刻影响,庞大老年群体的养老、医疗、社会服务等方面需求的压力也越来越大。
养老保障的负担正日益沉重。2004年,中国基本养老保险的支出总额达到3502亿元,比2000年增加了65.5%,中央财政对基本养老保险 的补贴支出攀升到522亿元。离休、退休、退职费用也呈现连年猛增的趋势。政府、企业、社会都已经感到养老保障方面的压力正在显著加大。
老年人医疗卫生消费支出的压力越来越大。据测算,老年人消费的医疗卫生资源一般是其他人群的3-5倍。2004年,中国基本医疗保险基金支出达 862亿元,占基金收入的75.5%,比上年增长31.6%,增长速度比基金收入增长快3.5个百分点。基本医疗保险基金支出之所以高速增长,人口迅速老 龄化是重要原因之一。
为老社会服务的需求迅速膨胀。目前,由于社会转型、政府职能转变、家庭养老功能弱化,为老服务业发展严重滞后,难以满足庞大老年人群,特别是迅 速增长的“空巢”、高龄和带病老年人的服务需求。以养老机构和床位数为例,目前,中国共有各类老年社会福利机构3.8万个,养老床位120.5万张,平均 每千名老人占有床位仅有8.6张,与发达国家平均每千名老人占有养老床位数
50-70张的水平相差甚远。其他生活照料、精神慰藉等许多为老服务也都存在发 展缓慢的问题,不能满足老年人群日益增长的需求。
与城市相比,农村老龄问题的压力更大。2000年,农村老年人口为8557万人,占老年人口总数的65.82%,农村老龄化程度比城镇高 1.24个百分点。同时,农村绝大部分地区尚未建立社会养老保险制度,农村新型合作医疗制度目前还处在试点阶段,农民的养老、医疗都缺乏必要的社会保障。随着人口老龄化进程
加快,农村的养老、医疗等方面的压力相对城镇将更加突出,西部和贫困地区尤为严峻。
中国正处在社会转型的关键时期,各项改革进入攻坚阶段,许多制度尚待建立和完善,养老、医疗、社会服务等方面的压力早就潜伏生长,人口老龄化只 是凸显了这些压力。目前,这些压力还只是初现端倪,随着人口老龄化快速发展,这些压力的影响将会更加深刻、更加普遍。
二、21世纪中国人口老龄化发展趋势
21世纪的中国将是一个不可逆转的老龄社会。从2001年2100年,中国的人口老龄化发展趋势可以划分为三个阶段:
第一阶段,从2001年到2020年是快速老龄化阶段。这一阶段,中国将平均每年增加596万老年人口,年均增长速度达到3.28%,大大超过 总人口年均0.66%的增长速度,人口老龄化进程明显加快。到2020年,老年人口将达到2.48亿,老龄化水平将达到17.17%,其中,80岁及以上 老年人口将达到3067万人,占老年人口的12.37%。
第二阶段,从2021年到2050年是加速老龄化阶段。伴随着20世纪60年代到70年代中期的新中国成立后第二次生育高峰人群进入老年,中国 老年人口数量开始加速增长,平均每年增加620万人。同时,由于总人口逐渐实现零增长并开始负增长,人口老龄化将进一步加速。到2023年,老年人口数量 将增加到
2.7亿,与0-14岁少儿人口数量相等。到2050年,老年人口总量将超过4亿,老龄化水平推进到30%以上,其中,80岁及以上老年人口将达 到9448万,占老年人口的21.78%。
第三阶段,从2051年到2100年是稳定的重度老龄化阶段。2051年,中国老年人口规模将达到峰值4.37亿,约为少儿人口数量的2倍。这 一阶段,老年人口规模将稳定在3-4亿,老龄化水平基本稳定在31%左右,80岁及以上高龄老人占老年总人口的比重将保持在25-30%,进入一个高度老 龄化的平台期。与其他国家相比,中国的人口老龄化具有以下主要特征:
一是老年人口规模巨大。2004年底,中国60岁及以上老年人口为1.43亿,2014年将达到2亿,2026年将达到3亿,2037年超过4 亿,2051年达到最大值,之后一直维持在3-4亿的规模。根据联合国预测,21世纪上半叶,中国一直是世界上老年人口最多的国家,占世界老年人口总量的 五分之一,21世纪下半叶,中国也还是仅次于印度的第二老年人口大国。
二是老龄化发展迅速。65岁以上老年人占总人口的比例从7%提升到14%,发达国家大多用了45年以上的时间,其中,法国130年,瑞典85 年,澳大利亚和美国79年左右。中国只用27年就可以完成这个历程,并且在今后一个很长的时期内都保持着很高的递增速度,属于老龄化速度最快国家之列。
三是地区发展不平衡。中国人口老龄化发展具有明显的由东向西的区域梯次特征,东部沿海经济发达地区明显快于西部经济欠发达地区,以最早进入人口 老年型行列的上海(1979年)和最迟进入人口老年型行列的宁夏(2012年)比较,时间跨度长达33年。
四是城乡倒置显著。发达国家人口老龄化的历程表明,城市人口老龄化水平一般高于农村,中国的情况则不同。目前,农村的老龄化水平高于城镇 1.24个百分点,这种城乡倒置的状况将一直持续到2040年。到21世纪后半叶,城镇的老龄化水平才将超过农村,并逐渐拉开差距。这是中国人口老龄化不 同于发达国家的重要特征之一。
五是女性老年人口数量多于男性。目前,老年人口中女性比男性多出464万人,2049年将达到峰值,多出2645万人。21世纪下半叶,多出的 女性老年人口基本稳定在1700-1900万人。需要指出的是,多出的女性老年人口中50-70%都是80岁及以上年龄段的高龄女性人口。
六是老龄化超前于现代化。发达国家是在基本实现现代化的条件下进入老龄社会的,属于先富后老或富老同步,而中国则是在尚未实现现代化,经济尚不 发达的情况下提前进入老龄社会的,属于未富先老。发达国家进入老龄社会时人均国内生产总值一般都在五千到一万美元以上,而中国目前人均国内生产总值才刚刚 超过一千美元,仍属于中等偏低收入国家行列,应对人口老龄化的经济实力还比较薄弱。
根据此次中国人口老龄化发展趋势的预测和分析,可以得出以下结论:
(一)中国人口老龄化将伴随21世纪始终。自1999年中国进入老龄社会开始,老年人口数量不断增加,老龄化程度持续加深,直到2100年,老 年人口总量仍然高达3.18亿,占总人口的31.09%,人口老龄化将伴随21世纪始终。
(二)2030年到2050年是中国人口老龄化最严峻的时期。一方面,这一阶段,老年人口数量和老龄化水平都将迅速增长到前所未有的程度,并迎 来老年人口规模的高峰。另一方面,2030年以后,人口总抚养比将随着老年抚养比的迅速提高而大幅度攀升,并最终超过50%,有利于发展经济的低抚养比的 “人口黄金时期”将于2033年结束。总的来看,2030到2050年,中国人口总抚养比和老年人口抚养比将分别保持在60-70%和40-50%,是人 口老龄化形势最严峻的时期。
(三)重度人口老龄化和高龄化将日益突出。经过50年左右的快速增长,到21世纪下半叶,中国老年人口规模、老龄化程度以及高龄化程度都将在较 高水平上保持基本稳定,老年人口总量虽有所下降,但仍然保持在3亿以上,老龄化程度为31%左右,80岁及以上高龄老年人口规模将保持在 8000-9000万,高龄化水平为25-30%,重度老龄化和高龄化问题将显得越来越突出。
(四)中国将面临人口老龄化和人口总量过多的双重压力。总人口过多是中国的基本国情,由于坚持计划生育的基本国策,总人口增长势头得到了有效控
制,但目前人口总规模仍然高达13亿,预计到2030年达到最大人口规模14.65亿,总人口过多的压力将长期存在。与此同时,中国已经进入老龄社会,这 是一个新的重要国情。人口老龄化压力已经开始显现,并将随着老龄化的发展而不断加重。整个21世纪,这两方面压力将始终交织在一起,给中国经济、社会发展 带来严峻的挑战。
三、问题和建议
世界人口老龄化发展的历史表明,人口老龄化对人类生活的所有方面都会产生重大的影响。在经济领域,人口老龄化将对经济增长、储蓄、投资与消费、劳动力市场、养老金、税收等产生冲击。在社会方面,人口老龄化将影响社会福利、医疗制度、家庭构成以及生活安排、住房和迁移。在政治和文化方面,人口老龄 化也会有不同程度的影响。
中国是一个人口大国,目前尚处于社会主义初级阶段,人均收入水平属于中等偏下国家的行列,城乡二元结构尚未得到根本扭转,经济发展水平和综合国 力还相对落后,实现现代化还有许多重大问题需要解决。在这种基本国情下,人口老龄化必将带来一些新的矛盾和压力,对经济和社会的发展提出新的挑战:在建立 适应社会主义市场经济要求的社会保障制度方面,养老、医疗等社会保障的压力巨大;在建立满足庞大老年人群需求的为老社会服务体系方面,加快社会资源合理配 置,增加为老服务设施,健全为老服务网络的压力巨大;在处理代际关系方面,解决庞大老年人群和劳动年龄人群利益冲突的压力巨大;在协调城乡和谐发展方面,解决农村老龄问题,特别是中西部和老少边穷地区老龄问题的压力巨大。同时,中国政府和社会还必须付出巨大成本来调整消费结构、产业结构、社会管理体制等,以适应人口年龄结构的巨大变化。
21世纪,中国社会经济发展的战略目标是在2020年实现全面小康,在2050年基本实现现代化,2050年以后进而实现中华民族的伟大复兴。要实现这一宏伟目标,就必须积极应对人口老龄化迅速发展的严峻挑战。2020年,2.48亿老年人能否同步进入全面小康,目前还有许多矛盾和问题需要解 决;2050年,中国在基本实现现代化的同时,能否承载4亿多老年人群各种需求的巨大压力,更是一个严峻的课题。总之,人口老龄化带来的严峻挑战,关系着 中国全面建设小康社会和现代化能否顺利实现,关系着社会主义和谐社会建设的进程。鉴于人口老龄化对人类生活全方位的深刻影响,自1982年第一届世界老龄大会以来,国际社会高度关注老龄问题,并提出了一系列应对的战略和对 策。2002年,联合国召开第二届世界老龄大会,敦促各国特别是发展中国家政府,必须从现在开始,采取强有力的应对战略和对策,否则,将会丧失战略机遇,付出巨大代价。
中国人口老龄化挑战愈来愈严峻,并将很快进入2030年到2050年的最严峻时期。从时间表上看,留给我们的准备时间只有短短的25年。正如联 合国和有关国际组织警示的:人口现象是一个长周期事件,解决人口问题必须要有足够的提前量。目前,中国应对人口老龄化的思想、物质、制度等各种准备还不 足。
在未来的25年时间里,要全方位地做好应对人口老龄化高峰的准备,不仅时间十分紧迫,而且压力十分巨大。
根据以上分析,我们提出的建议是:
1、要把老龄社会作为21世纪中国的一个重要国情认真对待。中国已经进入并将长期处于老龄社会,各级政府和有关部门及全社会必须充分认识人口老 龄化挑战的严峻性,树立老龄意识,增强应对人口老龄化和老龄社会挑战的紧迫性和自觉性。在研究制定经济社会发展战略时,要切实从老龄社会这一基本国情出 发,把应对老龄社会的挑战列入未来中国的发展战略。
2、要充分利用25年战略机遇期做好应对老龄社会的各项准备。从现在开始的未来25年,是应对老龄社会的关键准备期,也是仅有的战略机遇期,“十一五”时期尤为重要。各级政府要充分认识和把握老龄社会的挑战和机遇,把解决老龄社会的各种矛盾和问题纳入全面建设小康社会和社会主义现代化建设的总 体发展战略,制定发展规划,完善法律法规,调整社会经济政策,做好应对老龄社会的各项准备。要制定应对老龄社会挑战的中长远战略规划。要立足当前,在完善 政策、加大投入、加快发展老龄事业的同时,健全和完善适应世界老年人口第一大国这一国情的老龄工作机制。
3、加快老年社会保障体系建设。建设完善的老年社会保障体系,是从根本上解决老龄社会日益突出的养老医疗问题的制度安排。要在健全和完善城市社 会养老保险、医疗保险体系的同时,大力推广城乡困难群众的医疗救助制度。在建设社会主义新农村新形势下,努力完善农村五保供养制度,普遍实行农村新型合作 医疗制度,并在有条件的地方建立农村居民最低生活保障制度和试点推行社会养老保险制度。2030年人口老龄化最严峻时期到来以前,在全国城乡基本建立起符 合我国国情、适应社会主义市场经济体制要求的老年社会保障体系,确保城乡老年人养老、医疗问题的妥善解决。
4、大力发展老龄产业。发展老龄产业是应对老龄社会、满足庞大老年人群需求、促进经济社会协调发展的重要内容。要制定老年服务业发展规划,实施 国家对老年服务业的扶持保护政策,建立老年服务业发展管理体制。立足城乡社区发展为老服务业,培育老年服务中介组织,培养专业化的为老社会服务队伍,在 2030年以前,使老年服务业有较大的发展。同时,大力研制开发老年消费品,培育老年用品市场。
5、加强对老龄社会的前瞻性和战略性研究。老龄社会的挑战是史无前例的,发展中国家特别是像中国这样一个大国,如何在尚未实现现代化的条件下应 对老龄社会的挑战,还没有成功的经验可借鉴。因此,必须要加强对老龄社会特点和规律的研究,加强对建设有中国特色老龄事业的研究。创造条件,建立综合性国 家级研究机构,组织相关学科研究人员,把人口老龄化和老龄社会作为国家的重大宏观战略课题,立项进行攻关研究,为应对人口老龄化的严峻形势提供科学依据。