第一篇:美联储主席伯克南普林斯顿大学2013年毕业演讲视频
美联储主席伯克南普林斯顿大学2013年毕业演讲
给他们点颜色瞧瞧(双语)
本.伯南克是谁?他是美国经济学家,现任美国联邦储备局主席。下面是伯南克在普林斯顿大学2013年毕业典礼上的演讲。非常幽默,也给2013届普林斯顿毕业生10条人生建议,而这建议几乎都来自《阿甘正传》。
美联储主席伯克南普林斯顿大学毕业典礼演讲稿中英双语对照:
It's nice to be back at Princeton.I find it difficult to believe that it's been almost 11 years since I departed these halls for Washington.I wrote recently to inquire about the status of my leave from the university, and the letter I got back began, “Regrettably, Princeton receives many more qualified applicants for faculty positions than we can accommodate.” 重返普林斯顿感觉不错,很难相信,我离开校园赴华盛顿已经11年了。近期我向校方询问了我的教职问题,回信称:“很遗憾,普林斯顿收到很多更有才华的学者的求职信,而教职有限。”
I'll extend my best wishes to the seniors later, but first I want to congratulate the parents and families here.As a parent myself, I know that putting your kid through college these days is no walk in the park.Some years ago I had a colleague who sent three kids through Princeton even though neither he nor his wife attended this university.He and his spouse were very proud of that accomplishment, as they should have been.But my colleague also used to say that, from a financial perspective, the experience was like buying a new Cadillac every year and then driving it off a cliff.I should say that he always added that he would do it all over again in a minute.So, well done, moms, dads, and families.我将在稍后献上对毕业生的最美好祝愿,首先我要恭喜在座的家长们。作为父母,我知道这年头供孩子读完大学不容易,数年前,我的一个同事有3个孩子毕业于普林斯顿,尽管他们夫妻都不毕业于此,但我的同事常说,从财政角度讲,这如同每年买辆卡迪拉克,然后让车坠崖。他总会补充说,他会毫不犹豫的选择重新来过。所以,感谢你们的工作,母亲们,父亲们,及家人们。
This is indeed an impressive and appropriate setting for a commencement.I am sure that, from this lectern, any number of distinguished spiritual leaders have ruminated on the lessons of the Ten Commandments.I don't have that kind of confidence, and, anyway, coveting your neighbor's ox or donkey is not the problem it used to be, so I thought I would use my few minutes today to make Ten Suggestions, or maybe just Ten Observations, about the world and your lives after Princeton.Please note, these points have nothing whatsoever to do with interest rates.My qualification for making such suggestions, or observations, besides having kindly been invited to speak today by President Tilghman, is the same as the reason that your obnoxious brother or sister got to go to bed later--I am older than you.All of what follows has been road-tested in real-life situations, but past performance is no guarantee of future results.这确实是做毕业典礼演讲的合适场合,我认为,在这一讲台上,每个精神导师都受到过“十诫”的教诲,我没有那样的信心,而且无论无何,觊觎邻居的驴牛已不是目前的问题,所以今年前几分钟我将提出“十个建议”,或称为对这个世界和你们毕业后的生活的十个观察。请注意,这十点与利率毫无关系。我之所以有资格提出这些建议和或观察,除了普林斯顿的善意邀请外,理由和你们讨厌的哥哥姐姐可以晚睡是一个道理:我比你们更老。以下内容均经受过生活的考验,但以往表现并不能确保未来的结果。
1.The poet Robert Burns once said something about the best-laid plans of mice and men ganging aft agley, whatever “agley” means.A more contemporary philosopher, Forrest Gump, said something similar about life and boxes of chocolates and not knowing what you are going to get.They were both right.Life is amazingly unpredictable;any 22-year-old who thinks he or she knows where they will be in 10 years, much less in 30, is simply lacking imagination.Look what happened to me: A dozen years ago I was minding my own business teaching Economics 101 in Alexander Hall and trying to think of good excuses for avoiding faculty meetings.Then I got a phone call...In case you are skeptical of Forrest Gump's insight, here's a concrete suggestion for each of the graduating seniors.Take a few minutes the first chance you get and talk to an alum participating in his or her 25th, or 30th, or 40th reunion--you know, somebody who was near the front of the P-rade.Ask them, back when they were graduating 25, 30, or 40 years ago, where they expected to be today.If you can get them to open up, they will tell you that today they are happy and satisfied in various measures, or not, and their personal stories will be filled with highs and lows and in-betweens.But, I am willing to bet, those life stories will in almost all cases be quite different, in large and small ways, from what they expected when they started out.This is a good thing, not a bad thing;who wants to know the end of a story that's only in its early chapters? Don't be afraid to let the drama play out.1、阿甘曾讲到人生和巧克力的相似性,你不知道下一块巧克力的味道。人生确实难以预料,任何一个认为知道其10年后情况的毕业生,更不同说三十年了,我只能说他或她缺乏想象力。看看我吧,12年前我一心教经济学入门课程,想着编造什么理由不参加教学会议,结果我接到了那个电话。有过你有机会与毕业25年、30年或40年的校友交谈,并使他们敞开心扉,他们将告诉你,他们对生活中哪些事满意或不满意,他们经历过的高潮和低谷。但我敢打赌,他们的人生故事将与预期相异。这是好事而不是坏事,谁想在故事的开篇就知道结局呢?
2.Does the fact that our lives are so influenced by chance and seemingly small decisions and actions mean that there is no point to planning, to striving? Not at all.Whatever life may have in store for you, each of you has a grand, lifelong project, and that is the development of yourself as a human being.Your family and friends and your time at Princeton have given you a good start.What will you do with it? Will you keep learning and thinking hard and critically about the most important questions? Will you become an emotionally stronger person, more generous, more loving, more ethical? Will you involve yourself actively and constructively in the world? Many things will happen in your lives, pleasant and not so pleasant, but, paraphrasing a Woodrow Wilson School adage from the time I was here, “Wherever you go, there you are.” If you are not happy with yourself, even the loftiest achievements won't bring you much satisfaction.2、是否人生偶然性之大的事实,意味着小的决定和行动无足轻重,不需要规划和奋斗呢?当然不是。无论未来人生如何,她将是一个宏大和漫长的项目,是你作为个人 的发展过程。你的家人、朋友和你在普林斯顿的时光已经为你造就了良好的开端,未来你会如何?你会不断学习、竭力思索、对至关重要的问题持批判态度吗?你会 成为情感上更强大、更大度、更有爱心、更道德的人吗?你会更积极的、更建设性的参与世事吗?你的人生会有很多故事,快乐的,及不太快乐的,如果你不为自己 感到快乐,就连最伟大的成就业也不会让你感到满足。
3.The concept of success leads me to consider so-called meritocracies and their implications.We have been taught that meritocratic institutions and societies are fair.Putting aside the reality that no system, including our own, is really entirely meritocratic, meritocracies may be fairer and more efficient than some alternatives.But fair in an absolute sense? Think about it.A meritocracy is a system in which the people who are the luckiest in their health and genetic endowment;luckiest in terms of family support, encouragement, and, probably, income;luckiest in their educational and career opportunities;and luckiest in so many other ways difficult to enumerate--these are the folks who reap the largest rewards.The only way for even a putative meritocracy to hope to pass ethical muster, to be considered fair, is if those who are the luckiest in all of those respects also have the greatest responsibility to work hard, to contribute to the betterment of the world, and to share their luck with others.As the Gospel of Luke says(and I am sure my rabbi will forgive me for quoting the New Testament in a good cause): “From everyone to whom much has been given, much will be required;and from the one to whom much has been entrusted, even more will be demanded”(Luke 12:48, New Revised Standard Version Bible).Kind of grading on the curve, you might say.3、成功的概念促使我考虑所谓的精英主义及其含义。精英是在健康和基因上最幸运的人,他们在家庭支持、鼓励上,或在收入上也是最幸运的,他们在教育和职业机遇 上最幸运,他们在很多方面都最幸运,一般人难以复制。一个精英体制是否公平,要看这些精英是否有义务努力工作、致力于建设更好的世界,并与他人分享幸运。
4.Who is worthy of admiration? The admonition from Luke--which is shared by most ethical and philosophical traditions, by the way--helps with this question as well.Those most worthy of admiration are those who have made the best use of their advantages or, alternatively, coped most courageously with their adversities.I think most of us would agree that people who have, say, little formal schooling but labor honestly and diligently to help feed, clothe, and educate their families are deserving of greater respect--and help, if necessary--than many people who are superficially more successful.They're more fun to have a beer with, too.That's all that I know about sociology.4、谁值得尊重?是那些充分利用其优势,或勇敢面对逆境的人。我想我们会认同,那些虽然接受的正式教育不多,但诚实劳动、勤勉的为家人提供衣食和教育的人,相比更多表面上很成功的人,更值得尊重,和他们喝两杯是更有趣的事情。
5.Since I have covered what I know about sociology, I might as well say something about political science as well.In regard to politics, I have always liked Lily Tomlin's line, in paraphrase: “I try to be cynical, but I just can't keep up.” We all feel that way sometime.Actually, having been in Washington now for almost 11 years, as I mentioned, I feel that way quite a bit.Ultimately, though, cynicism is a poor substitute for critical thought and constructive action.Sure, interests and money and ideology all matter, as you learned in political science.But my experience is that most of our politicians and policymakers are trying to do the right thing, according to their own views and consciences, most of the time.If you think that the bad or indifferent results that too often come out of Washington are due to base motives and bad intentions, you are giving politicians and policymakers way too much credit for being effective.Honest error in the face of complex and possibly intractable problems is a far more important source of bad results than are bad motives.For these reasons, the greatest forces in Washington are ideas, and people prepared to act on those ideas.Public service isn't easy.But, in the end, if you are inclined in that direction, it is a worthy and challenging pursuit.5、提到政治,愤世嫉俗是批判性思考和建设性行动的更糟糕的替代品。当然,利益、金钱和意识形态都有影响力,如你在政治课上所学。但我的感受是大部分政界人士 都在寻求做正确的事情,大部分时候,这由他们的观点和意识决定。在复杂及难于处理的问题上所犯的诚实错误,更是糟糕结果的主要原因,而非不良动机。因此,华盛顿最有影响的力量是观念和想法,人们基于这些观念去行动。公共服务并不轻松,如果你选择了这一道路,那是值得的,并颇具挑战性。
6.Having taken a stab at sociology and political science, let me wrap up economics while I'm at it.Economics is a highly sophisticated field of thought that is superb at explaining to policymakers precisely why the choices they made in the past were wrong.About the future, not so much.However, careful economic analysis does have one important benefit, which is that it can help kill ideas that are completely logically inconsistent or wildly at variance with the data.This insight covers at least 90 percent of proposed economic policies.6、经济学是颇具诡辩性的思维领域,她在解释决策者以往所犯错误方面显得很崇高,但在预测未来时,则不仅如此。然而,谨慎的经济分析确有重要益处,她能去除那些不合逻辑或与数据不符的想法,这对90%的经济政策建议有影响。
7.I'm not going to tell you that money doesn't matter, because you wouldn't believe me anyway.In fact, for too many people around the world, money is literally a life-or-death proposition.But if you are part of the lucky minority with the ability to choose, remember that money is a means, not an end.A career decision based only on money and not on love of the work or a desire to make a difference is a recipe for unhappiness.7、我不会告诉你们金钱无用,反正你们也不会听的。事实上,对全球很多人来说,金钱能够决定生存还是死亡。但如果你属于那些幸运得有能力进行抉择的少数人,请记住,金钱只是途径,而非最终目标。职业选择基于收入、而非热爱,或做出贡献的热情,是日后苦恼的根源。
8.Nobody likes to fail but failure is an essential part of life and of learning.If your uniform isn't dirty, you haven't been in the game.8、没有人希望失败,但失败是生活和学习的一部分。如果你衣衫整齐,你并没有进入比赛。
9.I spoke earlier about definitions of personal success in an unpredictable world.I hope that as you develop your own definition of success, you will be able to do so, if you wish, with a close companion on your journey.In making that choice, remember that physical beauty is evolution's way of assuring us that the other person doesn't have too many intestinal parasites.Don't get me wrong, I am all for beauty, romance, and sexual attraction--where would Hollywood and Madison Avenue be without them? But while important, those are not the only things to look for in a partner.The two of you will have a long trip together, I hope, and you will need each other's support and sympathy more times than you can count.Speaking as somebody who has been happily married for 35 years, I can't imagine any choice more consequential for a lifelong journey than the choice of a traveling companion.9、我希望你们能够发展自身对成功的定义,在这一过程中,你们能够选择一位亲密的伴侣。在做出选择时,要记住外表美只是人类演变的一种方式,它使我们确信对方 没有肠道寄生虫。不要误解我,我也为美丽、浪漫和性所吸引,不然美国影视业和广告业怎么生存下去呢?但尽管重要,这些不是寻找人生伴侣时唯一需要考虑的事 情。你们将共同走过人生旅程,需要对方的支持和关爱。作为已婚35年的人士,我想象不到比选择人生伴侣更重要的事情。
10.Call your mom and dad once in a while.A time will come when you will want your own grown-up, busy, hyper-successful children to call you.Also, remember who paid your tuition to Princeton.10、时不时的给父母去个电话。早晚有一天,你希望自己长大成人的、工作繁忙的、超级成功的孩子给你来个电话,再者,请记着谁供养你上的大学。
Those are my suggestions.They're probably worth exactly what you paid for them.But they come from someone who shares your affection for this great institution and who wishes you the best for the future.Congratulations, graduates.Give 'em hell.最后,毕业生们,给他们点颜色看看。
En8848原版英语
第二篇:美联储主席伯南克周六在普林斯顿大学做毕业典礼演讲
北京时间6月3日晚间,美联储主席伯南克周六在普林斯顿大学做毕业典礼演讲,他没有提及货币政策、没有暗示是否寻求连任,而是向毕业生提出“十大建议”。
以下为伯南克演讲主要内容:
重返普林斯顿感觉不错,很难相信,我离开校园赴华盛顿已经11年了。近期我向校方询问了我的教职问题,回信称:“很遗憾,普林斯顿收到很多更有才华的学者的求职信,而教职有限。”
我将在稍后献上对毕业生的最美好祝愿,首先我要恭喜在座的家长们。作为父母,我知道这年头供孩子读完大学不容易,数年前,我的一个同事有3个孩 子毕业于普林斯顿,尽管他们夫妻都不毕业于此,但我的同事常说,从财政角度讲,这如同每年买辆卡迪拉克,然后让车坠崖。他总会补充说,他会毫不犹豫的选择 重新来过。所以,感谢你们的工作,母亲们,父亲们,及家人们。
这确实是做毕业典礼演讲的合适场合,我认为,在这一讲台上,每个精神导师都受到过“十诫”的教诲,我没有那样的信心,而且无论无何,觊觎邻居的 驴牛已不是目前的问题,所以今年前几分钟我将提出“十个建议”,或称为对这个世界和你们毕业后的生活的十个观察。请注意,这十点与利率毫无关系。我之所以 有资格提出这些建议和或观察,除了普林斯顿的善意邀请外,理由和你们讨厌的哥哥姐姐可以晚睡是一个道理:我比你们更老。以下内容均经受过生活的检验,但以 往表现并不能确保未来的结果。
1、“当代哲学家”阿甘曾讲到人生和巧克力的相似性,你不知道下一块巧克力的味道。人生确实难以预料,任何一个认为知道10年后情况的毕业生,更不同说三十年了,我只能说他或她缺乏想象力。看看我吧,12年前我一心教经济学入门课程,想着编造什么理由不去参加教学会议,结果我接到了来自华盛顿的 电话。如果你有机会与毕业25年、30年或40年的校友交谈,并能够让他们敞开心扉,他们将告诉你,他们对生活中哪些事满意或不满意,他们经历过的高潮和 低谷。但我敢打赌,他们的人生故事与预期相异。这是好事而不是坏事,谁想在故事的开篇就知道结局呢?
2、是否人生偶然性之大这一事实,意味着小的决定和行动无足轻重,不需要规划和奋斗呢?当然不是。无论未来人生如何,都将是一个宏大及漫长的项 目,是你作为个人的发展过程。你的家人、朋友和你在普林斯顿的时光已经为你打下了良好的基础,未来你将如何?你会不断学习、竭力思索、对至关重要的问题持 批判态度吗?你会成为情感更强大、更大度、更有爱心、更道德的人吗?你会更积极的、更建设性的参与世事吗?你的人生会有很多故事,快乐的,及不太快乐的,如果你不为自己感到快乐,就连最伟大的成就业也不会让你感到满足。
3、成功的概念促使我考虑所谓的精英主义及其含义。精英是在健康和基因方面最幸运的人,他们在家庭支持、鼓励上,或在收入上也是最幸运的,他们 在教育和职业机遇上最幸运,他们在很多方面都最幸运,一般人难以复制。一个精英体制是否公平,要看这些精英是否有义务努力工作、致力于建设更好的世界,并 与他人分享幸运。
4、谁值得尊重?是那些充分利用优势,或勇敢面对逆境的人。我想我们会认同,那些虽然接受正式教育不多,但诚实劳动、勤勉的为家人提供衣食和教育的人,相比更多表面上很成功的人,更值得尊重,和他们喝两杯是更有趣的事情。
5、提到政治,愤世嫉俗是批判性思考和建设性行动的可悲替代品。当然,利益、金钱和意识形态都有影响力,如你在政治课上所学。但我的感受是大部 分政界人士都在寻求做正确的事情,大部分时候,这由他们的观点和意识决定。在复杂及难于处理的问题上所犯的诚实错误,更是糟糕结果的主要原因,而非不
良动 机。因此,华盛顿最有影响的力量是观念和想法,人们基于这些观念去行动。公共服务并不轻松,如果你选择了这一道路,那是值得的,并颇具挑战性。
6、经济学是颇具诡辩性的思维领域,她在解释决策者以往所犯错误方面显得很崇高,但在预测未来时则不仅如此。然而,谨慎的经济分析确有重要益处,她能去除那些不合逻辑或与数据不符的想法,这对90%的经济政策建议有影响。
7、我不会告诉你们金钱无用,反正你们也不会听的。事实上,对全球很多人来说,金钱能够决定是生存还是死亡。但如果你属于那些幸运得有能力进行抉择的少数人,请记住,金钱只是途径,而非最终目标。职业选择基于收入,而非热爱或做出贡献的热情,是日后苦恼的根源。
8、没有人希望失败,但失败是生活和学习的一部分。如果你衣衫整齐,你并没有真正进入比赛。
9、我希望你们能够发展自身对成功的定义,在这一过程中,你们能够选择一位亲密的伴侣。在做出选择时,要记住外表美只是人类演变的一种方式,它 使我们确信对方没有肠道寄生虫。不要误解我,我也为美丽、浪漫和性所吸引,不然美国影视业和广告业怎么生存下去呢?但尽管重要,这些不是寻找人生伴侣时唯 一需要考虑的事情。你们将共同走过人生旅程,需要对方的支持和关爱。作为已婚35年的人士,我想象不到比选择人生伴侣更重要的事情。
10、时不时的给父母去个电话。早晚有一天,你希望自己长大成人的、工作繁忙的、超级成功的孩子给你来个电话,再者,请不要忘记谁供养你上的大学。
最后,毕业生们,给他们点颜色看看。
第三篇:9月19日美联储主席伯南克讲话全文
9月19日美联储主席伯南克讲话全文:保持宽松的货币政策
作者:LMAX万海
美联储主席伯南克在北京时间9月19日2:00美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)宣布利率决定,发表政策声明及经济展望后,主持媒体发布会。伯南克发言如下:
伯南克称,目前美国经济增长下滑风险已经降低,但是增长的幅度变缓,经济增速也是适度的。中期经济前景轮廓同6月时的看法接近,需要耐心等待不利因素逐渐缓和。
就业市场复苏不平衡,复苏状况低于期望,失业率高于可接受的水准。失业率降至6.5%以下以前不会升息,在2016年后的几年利率可能逐步上升,最终达到4%。失业率并不是衡量就业市场最关键的数据,目前没有特殊的数据能够完全描述就业市场,希望就业市场全面复苏。委员会将密切关注通胀水平,多数官员预期通胀会上升,通胀会恢复至2。如果通胀持续低于目标水准,将放缓加息的决定。相较于QE,利率政策是更加强大的工具。
财政政策给经济带来消极影响,财政状况令今年经济增长放缓至少一个百分点。如果因政府行动造成经济放缓,我们必须慎重考虑,最重要的是避免2011年的那种不利情况发生。
委员会认为经济数据还没有强劲到支持缩减QE,即将开展的债务上限争论将给市场带来风险。在被问及今年放缓购债进度是否仍合适时,伯南克称总的框架还是一样的,即便缩减购债规模,联储仍能通过利率向市场保持宽松的货币政策。伯南克认为量化宽松政策是有效的,目前就业市场要比一年前好很多,尽管目前效果难以确切评估。
之后的几次会议上委员会将确认经济是否复苏,然后会迈出缩减购债第一步。缩减购债没有固定时间表。如果对经济前景的信心增强,可能在今年稍晚行动。
第四篇:伯南克普林斯顿毕业演讲:给他们点颜色看看
a human being.Your family and friends and your time at Princeton have given you a good start.What will you do with it? Will you keep learning and thinking hard and critically about the most important questions? Will you become an emotionally stronger person, more generous, more loving, more ethical? Will you involve yourself actively and constructively in the world? Many things will happen in your lives, pleasant and not so pleasant, but, paraphrasing a Woodrow Wilson School adage from the time I was here, “Wherever you go, there you are.” If you are not happy with yourself, even the loftiest achievements won't bring you much satisfaction.3.The concept of success leads me to consider so-called meritocracies and their implications.We have been taught that meritocratic institutions and societies are fair.Putting aside the reality that no system, including our own, is really entirely meritocratic, meritocracies may be fairer and more efficient than some alternatives.But fair in an absolute sense? Think about it.A meritocracy is a system in which the people who are the luckiest in their health and genetic endowment;luckiest in terms of family support, encouragement, and, probably, income;luckiest in their educational and career opportunities;and luckiest in so many other ways difficult to enumerate--these are the folks who reap the largest rewards.The only way for even a putative meritocracy to hope to pass ethical muster, to be considered fair, is if those who are the luckiest in all of those respects also have the greatest responsibility to work hard, to contribute to the betterment of the world, and to share their luck with others.As the Gospel of Luke says(and I am sure my rabbi will forgive me for quoting the New Testament in a good cause): “From everyone to whom much has been given, much will be required;and from the one to whom much has been entrusted, even more will be demanded”(Luke 12:48, New Revised Standard Version Bible).Kind of grading on the curve, you might say.4.Who is worthy of admiration? The admonition from Luke--which is shared by most ethical and philosophical traditions, by the way--helps with this question as well.Those most worthy of admiration are those who have made the best use of their advantages or, alternatively, coped most courageously with their adversities.I think most of us would agree that people who have, say, little formal schooling but labor honestly and diligently to help feed, clothe, and educate their families are deserving of greater respect--and help, if necessary--than many people who are superficially more successful.They're more fun to have a beer with, too.That's all that I know about sociology.5.Since I have covered what I know about sociology, I might as well say something about political science as well.In regard to politics, I have always liked Lily Tomlin's line, in paraphrase: “I try to be cynical, but I just can't keep up.” We all feel that way sometime.Actually, having been in Washington now for almost 11 years, as I mentioned, I feel that way quite a bit.Ultimately, though, cynicism is a poor substitute for critical thought and constructive action.Sure, interests and money and ideology all matter, as you learned in political science.But my experience is that most of our politicians and policymakers are trying to do the right thing, according to their own views and consciences, most of the time.If you think that the bad or indifferent results that too often come out of Washington are due to base motives and bad intentions, you are giving politicians and policymakers way too much credit for being effective.Honest error in the face of complex and possibly intractable problems is a far more important source of bad results than are bad motives.For these reasons, the greatest forces in Washington are ideas, and people prepared to act on those ideas.Public service isn't easy.But, in the end, if you are inclined in that direction, it is a worthy and challenging pursuit.6.Having taken a stab at sociology and political science, let me wrap up economics while I'm at it.Economics is a highly sophisticated field of thought that is superb at explaining to policymakers precisely why the choices they made in the past were wrong.About the future, not so much.However, careful economic analysis does have one important benefit, which is that it can help kill ideas that are completely logically inconsistent or wildly at variance with the data.This insight covers at least 90 percent of proposed economic policies.7.I'm not going to tell you that money doesn't matter, because you wouldn't believe me anyway.In fact, for too many people around the world, money is literally a life-or-death proposition.But if you are part of the lucky minority with the ability to choose, remember that money is a means, not an end.A career decision based only on money and not on love of the work or a desire to make a difference is a recipe for unhappiness.8.Nobody likes to fail but failure is an essential part of life and of learning.If your uniform isn't dirty, you haven't been in the game.9.I spoke earlier about definitions of personal success in an unpredictable world.I hope that as you develop your own definition of success, you will be able to do so, if you wish, with a close companion on your journey.In making that choice, remember that physical beauty is evolution's way of assuring us that the other person doesn't have too many intestinal parasites.Don't get me wrong, I am all for beauty, romance, and sexual attraction--where would Hollywood and Madison Avenue be without them? But while important, those are not the only things to look for in a partner.The two of you will have a long trip together, I hope, and you will need each other's support and sympathy more times than you can count.Speaking as somebody who has been happily married for 35 years, I can't imagine any choice more consequential for a lifelong journey than the choice of a traveling companion.10.Call your mom and dad once in a while.A time will come when you will want your own grown-up, busy, hyper-successful children to call you.Also, remember who paid your tuition to Princeton.Those are my suggestions.They're probably worth exactly what you paid for them.But they come from someone who shares your affection for this great institution and who wishes you the best for the future.Congratulations, graduates.Give 'em hell.内容大意:
重返普林斯顿感觉不错,很难相信,我离开校园赴华盛顿已经11年了。近期我向校方询问了我的教职问题,回信称:“很遗憾,普林斯顿收到很多更有才华的学者的求职信,而教职有限。”
我将在稍后献上对毕业生的最美好祝愿,首先我要恭喜在座的家长们。作为父母,我知道这年头供孩子读完大学不容易,数年前,我的一个同事有3个孩子毕业于普林斯顿,尽管他们夫妻都不毕业于此,但我的同事常说,从财政角度讲,这如同每年买辆卡迪拉克,然后让车坠崖。他总会补充说,他会毫不犹豫的选择重新来过。所以,感谢你们的工作,母亲们,父亲们,及家人们。
这确实是做毕业典礼演讲的合适场合,我认为,在这一讲台上,每个精神导师都受到过“十诫”的教诲,我没有那样的信心,而且无论无何,觊觎邻居的驴牛已不是目前的问题,所以今年前几分钟我将提出“十个建议”,或称为对这个世界和你们毕业后的生活的十个观察。请注意,这十点与利率毫无关系。我之所以有资格提出这些建议和或观察,除了普林斯顿的善意邀请外,理由和你们讨厌的哥哥姐姐可以晚睡是一个道理:我比你们更老。以下内容均经受过生活的考验,但以往表现并不能确保未来的结果。
1、阿甘曾讲到人生和巧克力的相似性,你不知道下一块巧克力的味道。人生确实难以预料,任何一个认为知道其10年后情况的毕业生,更不同说三十年了,我只能说他或她缺乏想象力。看看我吧,12年前我一心教经济学入门课程,想着编造什么理由不参加教学会议,结果我接到了那个电话。有过你有机会与毕业25年、30年或40年的校友交谈,并使他们敞开心扉,他们将告诉你,他们对生活中哪些事满意或不满意,他们经历过的高潮和低谷。但我敢打赌,他们的人生故事将与预期相异。这是好事而不是坏事,谁想在故事的开篇就知道结局呢?
2、是否人生偶然性之大的事实,意味着小的决定和行动无足轻重,不需要规划和奋斗呢?当然不是。无论未来人生如何,她将是一个宏大和漫长的项目,是你作为个人 的发展过程。你的家人、朋友和你在普林斯顿的时光已经为你造就了良好的开端,未来你会如何?你会不断学习、竭力思索、对至关重要的问题持批判态度吗?你会 成为情感上更强大、更大度、更有爱心、更道德的人吗?你会更积极的、更建设性的参与世事吗?你的人生会有很多故事,快乐的,及不太快乐的,如果你不为自己 感到快乐,就连最伟大的成就业也不会让你感到满足。
3、成功的概念促使我考虑所谓的精英主义及其含义。精英是在健康和基因上最幸运的人,他们在家庭支持、鼓励上,或在收入上也是最幸运的,他们在教育和职业机遇 上最幸运,他们在很多方面都最幸运,一般人难以复制。一个精英体制是否公平,要看这些精英是否有义务努力工作、致力于建设更好的世界,并与他人分享幸运。
4、谁值得尊重?是那些充分利用其优势,或勇敢面对逆境的人。我想我们会认同,那些虽然接受的正式教育不多,但诚实劳动、勤勉的为家人提供衣食和教育的人,相比更多表面上很成功的人,更值得尊重,和他们喝两杯是更有趣的事情。
5、提到政治,愤世嫉俗是批判性思考和建设性行动的更糟糕的替代品。当然,利益、金钱和意识形态都有影响力,如你在政治课上所学。但我的感受是大部分政界人士 都在寻求做正确的事情,大部分时候,这由他们的观点和意识决定。在复杂及难于处理的问题上所犯的诚实错误,更是糟糕结果的主要原因,而非不良动机。因此,华盛顿最有影响的力量是观念和想法,人们基于这些观念去行动。公共服务并不轻松,如果你选择了这一道路,那是值得的,并颇具挑战性。
6、经济学是颇具诡辩性的思维领域,她在解释决策者以往所犯错误方面显得很崇高,但在预测未来时,则不仅如此。然而,谨慎的经济分析确有重要益处,她能去除那些不合逻辑或与数据不符的想法,这对90%的经济政策建议有影响。
7、我不会告诉你们金钱无用,反正你们也不会听的。事实上,对全球很多人来说,金钱能够决定生存还是死亡。但如果你属于那些幸运得有能力进行抉择的少数人,请记住,金钱只是途径,而非最终目标。职业选择基于收入、而非热爱,或做出贡献的热情,是日后苦恼的根源。
8、没有人希望失败,但失败是生活和学习的一部分。如果你衣衫整齐,你并没有进入比赛。
9、我希望你们能够发展自身对成功的定义,在这一过程中,你们能够选择一位亲密的伴侣。在做出选择时,要记住外表美只是人类演变的一种方式,它使我们确信对方 没有肠道寄生虫。不要误解我,我也为美丽、浪漫和性所吸引,不然美国影视业和广告业怎么生存下去呢?但尽管重要,这些不是寻找人生伴侣时唯一需要考虑的事 情。你们将共同走过人生旅程,需要对方的支持和关爱。作为已婚35年的人士,我想象不到比选择人生伴侣更重要的事情。
10、时不时的给父母去个电话。早晚有一天,你希望自己长大成人的、工作繁忙的、超级成功的孩子给你来个电话,再者,请记着谁供养你上的大学。
最后,毕业生们,给他们点颜色看看。
第五篇:美联储主席伯南克就半货币政策报告向国会的证词
美联储主席伯南克: 就半货币政策报告向国会的证词
编者按:2011年7月14日,美联储主席伯南克就半货币政策报告向国会提呈证词,分析当前的经济形势和前景,并阐述货币政策方面的观点。某银监局对此进行了编译,现编发,供参阅。
一、经济展望
(一)目前,美国经济正在持续复苏但步伐仍然较为缓慢 继2010年下半年2.75%的年增长率后,今年第一季度的实际国内生产总值(GDP)增速约为2%,反映出复苏仍然疲软。同时,曾在岁末年初处于下降轨迹的失业率又重返9%以上。最近美国经济表现弱于预期可归因于几个暂时性因素,主要体现在两个方面:一是能源价格特别是汽油价格,以及食品价格走高,降低了消费者的购买力。二是日本震后造成的供应链中断,导致美国汽车生产商大幅削减装配量,并限制了某些型号的产出。但是展望未来,石油和其他商品价格明显趋稳将减轻家庭预算的压力,汽车制造商报告其在克服零部件短缺方面取得重大进展,预期今年夏季产量将大幅增加。
(二)针对这些发展态势,美国联邦储备委员会成员和联邦储备银行主席,结合联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)六月下旬会议的相关内容,发布其关于经济复苏步伐将在未来几个季度内加快的有关评估
1、具体来说,2011年预期的美国实际国内生产总值增长率主要集中在2.7%至2.9%(该数据包括增长较弱的上半年情况),2012年这一数据预计将为3.3%至3.7%。如果能够实现,未来美国将比今年情况有显著改善。联邦公开市场委员会成员预期中期内经济复苏将持续增强,2013年对实际国内生产总值增长率的预期主要集中在3.5%至4.2%。同时2011-2012年预期实际国内生产总值增长率相比4月报告值下调近0.5个百分点,表明联邦公开市场委员会成员认为一些上半年下行因素还将继续持续一段时间。经济面临的阻力包括:在考虑食品和能源高价影响后消费增长依然缓慢,住房部门的持续低迷,一些家庭和小企业难以获得贷款及各级政府紧缩的财政政策。与实际产出预期增长率略高于趋势率的情况相一致。
2、联邦公开市场委员会成员预计,随着时间推移,失业率将下降,尽管只是缓慢回归至其长期正常水平。成员们就今年第四季度失业率的预期主要集中在8.6%-8.9%,2012年年底为7.8%-8.2%,2013年底为7.0%-7.5%。最新数据表明劳动力市场持续疲软,六月份失业率上升至9.2%,非农就业人数的增长连续第二个月低于预期。目前在经济衰退中减少的超过850万个就业岗位中175万个已经恢复,但在这些岗位中,约6%即860万人反馈他们希望能够全职工作,但目前只能获得兼职。更为严重的是,目前失业者中近一半已连续失业超过6个月,达到二战至今的最高比例。长期失业将给失业者及其家庭带 2
来严重的经济困难,同时随着工作技能的衰退,长期失业将损害其人生职业前景,并降低整个经济的生产潜力。
(三)今年在总需求中有所缓解的要素大多集中在家庭部门,消费者的消费能力和消费意愿将是未来几个季度复苏步伐的一个重要决定因素
2011年前5个月实际个人可支配收入增加主要来自所得税的降低,但是这一收益在很大程度上被更高的油价和其他商品价格所抵消。家庭报告指出,居民对经济持续复苏和自身收入前景改善的信心不大。此外,房屋价格持续疲软压制了家庭财富,并影响着消费者的情绪。从积极的角度而言,家庭债务负担正在减少,信用卡和汽车贷款的拖欠率显著下降,且房主首次按揭付款违约量也在降低。预期经济活动将逐渐活跃,就业机会增加,物价压力缓和,这些将在中期内对实际家庭收入、信心和消费产生支持作用。
住宅建设活动仍处于极低的水平。房屋需求受压制的主要因素与限制消费者支出的普遍因素类似,包括就业和收入的恢复缓慢以及消费者信心指数不佳等。抵押贷款利率接近历史低点,但抵押贷款的获得仍然受到限制。此外,因为房屋需求疲软、空臵待售物业大量积压、以及不良销售比例高企对房价一直保持下行压力,许多潜在购房者仍然担心在下跌行情中入市。
经济复苏的两个亮点是出口及企业设备与软件投资。国内外厂商 对美国制造的资本货物需求有力地支持了复苏中的制造业生产。第一季度设备和软件的支出和出口稳步增加,美国生产商获得的新订单数据表明这种趋势在近几个月中还将继续。企业获利强劲,涉足资本市场较大的非金融企业已经能够为现有债务再融资并以较低的利率筹 3
资。总体而言,企业借款条件继续缓和,但对一些小企业提供的信贷支持仍然相对有限。
(四)迄今为止,今年的通货膨胀率呈上升态势
2011年前5个月个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)折合年率上升超过4%,基于12个月计算的该指标为2.5%。通胀加速主要原因是石油和其他商品及进口商品价格上涨。此外,由于新车型的供应受到日本地震导致零部件短缺的制约,汽车价格大幅上升。多数近期出现的通货膨胀率上升情况可能都是短暂的,联邦公开市场委员会成员预计通货膨胀将在未来若干季度内回落至2%或以下,考虑到充分就业和价格稳定的双重任务,也可能略高于这一预期水平。成员们预期2011年全年PCE价格指数增长率主要集中在2.3%-2.5%,这意味着下半年通货膨胀将显著放缓。对2012-2013年通货膨胀预测主要集中在1.5%-2.0%。对中期通货膨胀的预测理由包括:石油和其他商品价格的明显趋稳并已在石油零售和食品价格中有所反映,依旧大量富余的美国劳工和产品市场已使工人难以获得工资收入,公司难以承担其更高的成本及长期通货膨胀预期的稳定。这一结果是根据对家庭的调查、私人部门经济学家的预测及金融市场指标所确定的。
二、货币政策
作为委员会决定维持高度宽松货币政策的基础,联邦公开市场委员会成员认为在未来几个季度里,经济复苏将保持适中,失业率逐渐 降低,通货膨胀也将趋于缓和。
(一)美联储当前政策由两部分组成
首先,联邦基金利率的目标值保持在0-0.25%,委员会预测当前经济情势可能使联邦基金利率在未来较长时间内保持相当低的水准。4
其次,货币政策旨在增加联储对长期证券的持有,这一政策的实施也是由于联邦基金利率无法再进一步降低。联储持有长期国库券推动其价格的上涨,并导致长期国库券收益率低于其应有的水平。通过将一定量的长期国库券转移出市场,联储的购买行为促使私人投资者去持有金融市场中其他的国库券替代资产,如企业债券和按揭证券等。这种方式的联邦资产收购项目更像通常的货币政策,用于降低其他资产的收益率和提高它们的价格。这些措施的最终结果是整个经济体中更低的借贷成本和更宽松的财务状况。从多年的货币政策经验可知,当经济发展低于潜在水平时,更宽松的财务状况有助于推动更快的经济增长。基于近期研究和联储的分析预测显示,在其他条件相同的情况下,第二轮的资产收购可能降低长期利率10-30个基准点。我们的分析进一步指出,如此幅度的长期利率下降,对经济的影响等同于联邦基准利率下降40到120个基准点。
(二)今年六月,美联储完成上一年十一月委员会提出的6万亿美元的长期国库券收购计划,同时继续把到期或赎回证券的收益重新用于国库券投资
虽然不再扩大证券的持有规模,但证据表明,联储证券收购项目的调整程度主要由联储已有证券数量和组合决定,而非当前新收购的速度。项目涉及的是证券购买而不是政府支出。伯南克表示之后会进一步说明,当宏观经济环境需要时,美联储会放松这些购买行为。同时,证券的利息收入将全部汇入美国国库。
在这个项目开始之初,美联储并未预期它能解决国家的所有经济问题。然而,当去年夏季美国经济扩张减缓,充分就业和价格稳定的双重任务意味着美联储需要额外的货币调整。在此背景下,美联储相 5
信这个项目既有助于降低已发生的通货紧缩带来的风险,也能给经济注射期待已久的强心剂,促进经济活动的活跃并提供就业机会。证券购买经验表明,这个项目起到降低通货紧缩风险和支持经济活动的预期效应。在去年八月美联储发表关于重新投资到期或赎回证券的政策讲话,并有信号显示出美联储将考虑购买更多的证券。随后几个月,对市场上通胀指数证券的通货膨胀补偿从较低水平上升到正常水平,意味着通货紧缩的预计风险已经显著下降。这是一个重大的成就,日本的经验给予美联储启示,长期通货紧缩会通过削弱经济增长而带来巨大成本。
(三)在就业方面,美联储预期比较保守
在秋季所作的预测认为,对长期证券的额外购买能在随后两年增加大概70万个职位,即每月增加大概3万个额外的职位。尽管五、六月就业数据受到之前讨论的暂时性因素影响而令人失望,但仍然可以看到,与2010年五至八月间平均每月约8万个私人职位的增加相比,2011年上半年就业人数增长幅度达每月16万人。并非所有就业上升都是资产购买项目的结果,但以上比较和美联储对就业数据的预测相一致。美联储表示仍将密切留意劳动力市场的发展。
(四)一旦抑制经济活动的短期冲击消失,美联储预期再次看到政策调整的效应,这些效应将反映为更强劲的经济活动和就业机会的增加。然而,美联储考虑到中期复苏力度和通货膨胀前景具有的不确定性,联储依然准备好应对任何可能的经济发展形势。在这些形势下,美联储对货币政策做出调整是适当的
一方面,近期经济疲软态势会比预期更持久,通货紧缩风险再次发生的可能性依然存在,预示着额外的政策支持是必需的。虽然联邦 6
基金利率接近于零,但美联储还能采取很多措施进一步缓解金融形势。一是在联邦基金利率和资产负债表维持现有水平的同时提供更明确的指导。二是进行更多的证券购买或延长持有证券的平均到期期限。联储可以将其付给银行的利率降低25个基准点,从而使短期利率下降。美联储实施这些政策的经验有限,它们可能会导致潜在的风险和成本。如果条件允许,就谨慎计划而言,将需要美联储评估这些或其他潜在方案对于部署额外刺激计划的效果。
另一方面,经济发展也可能会走向需要略为紧缩政策的情形。因此,委员会将充分考虑现有战略的基础,六月的FOMC会议已就在政策标准化条件允许时所期望采取的发展步骤达成广泛共识。简而言之,当经济条件允许时,委员会将停止将本金投资在证券上并开始标准化进程,联储的资产负债表规模由此会开始缩小。同时或之后,委员会将在其报告中调整接下来的指导。这一系列步骤可能包括最初的临时储备收缩措施,也可能提高目标联储基准利率。从那时起,改变标准联储基准利率的水平或范围将成为美联储调整货币政策以应对经济发展的主要手段。首次提高目标联储基准利率后,委员会将提前对外公布销售时点和步伐,并开始从其组合中把机构证券销售出去。一旦销售开始,预期的销售步伐将是相对逐渐和稳定的,但是也会加以调整以应对经济前景或财务状况的重大变化。随着时间的推移,证券组合和与其相关的银行储备将会下降到与货币政策有效实施相一致的水平。当然,形势会改变,无论选择政策标准化时点还是实施进程的步调,就政策的下一个方向而言,美联储表示会认真考虑充分就业和价格稳定双重任务的两个方面。