兰德公司：中国大飞机梦还很远 应加强国际合作

第一篇：兰德公司：中国大飞机梦还很远 应加强国际合作

兰德公司：中国大飞机梦还很远 应加强国际合作

美国智库兰德公司的环境、能源和经济发展项目组最近在专题研究报告中指出：尽管有以十亿计的资金投入和一系列优惠政策的扶持，中国的商用航空制造业发展并未达到预期，未来发展面临的挑战依然严峻。

近年来，中国的“大飞机梦”越来越多地被人提起。作为国家科技实力和制造能力发展重要标志的商用航空制造产业，受到中国政府青睐。但美国智库兰德公司环境、能源和经济发展项目组最近在专题研究报告中指出：尽管有以十亿计的资金投入和一系列优惠政策的扶持，中国的商用航空制造业发展并未达到预期，未来发展面临的挑战依然严峻。

中国一直对制造商用飞机有浓厚兴趣。但长期以来，中国的飞机制造业以制造军用飞机为主，商用航空制造业被严重挤压，产业规模非常有限，中国的商用航空市场基本被外国企业垄断。

进入21世纪后，中国政府下定决心发展自己的商用航空制造业，并于2008年整合力量成立了中国商用飞机有限责任公司，试图打造与空中客车和波音比肩的国际大型商用航空制造公司。

兰德公司的报告认为，受政策刺激影响，中国商用航空制造业取得了一定发展。2005~2010年间，行业总产值增长了两倍多，相关从业人员超过25万人，有两款机型在研发、生产、推广等方面也都取得了一些突破。但报告同时指出，目前商用航空制造业在中国工业总产值的占比仍然很小，2010年时仅有0.17%。同时，中国制造的飞机在国际市场上竞争力也很有限，2011年时仅占国际市场份额的1.3%。中国民用航空制造业距离预期的发展目标显然还有很长的路要走。

报告列举了中国商用飞机制造产业面临的困难和挑战。

技术上存在不足。中国已在制造飞机涡轮叶片等方面取得突破，但仍无法自主生产大飞机引擎、航电设备等重要部件。由于航空业高度重视安全问题，美国联邦航空管理局和欧洲航空安全局要求，任何航空零部件在使用前都要经过其检验和认证，这对中国相关制造企业提出了更高的要求。

行业人才积累薄弱。项目组调查走访发现，中国商飞公司飞机设计团队中的大部分成员还不满30岁，商用航空制造所必需的复杂系统整合能力比较缺乏。

海外市场竞争力有限。中国政府通过对外援助等方式，向东南亚国家推销中国商用飞机，目前已有成功案例。但其象征意义大于实际意义，加之双方签订的合同很“软”，未来执行程度还有很大疑问。海外维修保障网络的缺乏，同样严重制约了中国商用飞机在海外市场的竞争力。

报告认为，中国扶持高端制造业的产业政策已形成一套“组合拳”：首先集中全国力量，成立产业龙头企业，从资金、人才上给予大量支持；再通过建立合资企业，引起国外投资和技术；要求相关国有企业必须购买“国货”，为产品建立销售渠道。此外，中国政府还会通

过外交渠道，向国外市场大力推销高端制造业产品，帮助其增加国际竞争力。

但是，对中国的商用航空制造业来说，上述政策的扶持效果并不明显。报告指出，除了之前提到的产业规模和海外竞争力等指标外，接受项目组访问的大多数专家都认为，即便中国商飞公司成功地将已经取得一些突破的ARJ-21和C919两款机型推向市场，也不足以打破空客和波音两强垄断的局面。正如一位业内人士所说：“对于中国而言，造飞机并不难，只要钱投够了就行。但是运营一家有生命力、竞争力的飞机制造公司就没这么容易了，钱不能解决所有问题。”

报告认为，商用航空制造业是一项国际化、标准化的产业，对市场化程度要求很高。中国试图采取“国家主义”，“举全国之力”取得成功，困难和挑战远远超过预期。

报告建议，中国政府可以考虑将更多资源投入到通用航空制造业。中航通用飞机有限公司已在该领域进行了一系列国际收购，为打开国际市场奠定了良好基础。此外，中国还可以通过加强知识产权保护、为国外企业提供更公平的投资环境等方式，吸引空客、波音等巨头更多地在中国投资建立合资企业，以使中国更好地融入国际商用航空技术供应链，并借此促进中国相关产业的内生性发展。

American think-tank at the rand corporation environment, energy and economic

development program in a recent research report: despite the billions of money into and a series of preferential policy support, China's commercial aviation manufacturing industry development is not desired, the challenge for the future development is still grim.In recent years, China's “dream” big planes are more and more people.As a national science and technology strength and manufacturing capability development important symbol of commercial aviation manufacturingindustry, favored by the Chinese government.But American think-tank, the rand corporation environment, energy and economic development program in a recent research report: despite the billions of money into and a series of preferential policy support, China's commercial aviation manufacturing industry development is not desired, the challenge for the future development is still grim.China has been have strong interest in manufacturing commercial aircraft.But for a long time, China's aircraft manufacturing industry is given priority to with manufacturing military aircraft, commercial aircraft manufacturing is squeezed, industry scale is very limited, China's commercial aviation market basic monopoly by foreign enterprises.After entering the 21st century, the Chinese government decided to develop its

commercial aviation manufacturing industry, and integration of power in 2008 set up the commercial aircraft corporation of China, trying to build on a par with airbus and Boeing's international large commercial aviationmanufacturing company.The rand corporation report says, affected by the policy stimulus, China's commercial aviation manufacturing industry has obtained certain development.From 2005 to 2010, industry output value more than tripled, practitioners more than 250000 people, there are two models in the research and development, production, promotion, etc, were also made some breakthrough.But the report also pointed out that the current commercial aviation

manufacturing industry in China's industrial output value proportion is still small, only 0.17% in 2010.At the same time, the aircraft made in China is limited in the international market competitiveness, in 2011 only 1.3% of global market share.The development of China's civil aviation manufacturing distance expected goals clearly there is still a long way to go.Report cited China's commercial aircraft manufacturing industry facing difficulties and challenges.Technical shortcomings.China has made a breakthrough in manufacturing for gas turbine aircraft, but still unable to independent production of large aircraft engines, avionics and other important components.Due to the industry attaches great importance to the safety problems, the federal aviation administration and the European aviation safety agency requirements, before using any aviation parts go through the inspection and certification, for the related manufacturing enterprises in China put forward higher request.Industry talent accumulation is weak.Project survey found that comac aircraft design

most of the team members are under 30 years old, the commercial aviation manufacturing ability is lack of necessary for complex systems integration.Overseas market competitiveness co., LTD.TheChinese government through foreign aid, promote China's commercial aircraft to southeast Asian countries, there are success stories.But it is more symbolic than practical significance, in addition to the contract signed by both sides is very “soft”, executive level also has the very big question in the future.Lack of maintenance support overseas network, also restricted the competitiveness of China's commercial aircraft in the overseas market.According to the report, China's support policies of high-end manufacturing industries has formed a set of “combination” : first, focus on the national power, set up industry leading enterprises, a lot of support from capital, talent;Again through the establishment of joint venture, the foreign investment and technology;Requirements related to the state-owned enterprises must buy “air”, set up sales channels for our products.In addition, the Chinese government will, through diplomatic channels, vigorously promote high-end manufacturing products to foreign market, help to increase its international

competitiveness.However, for China's commercial aviation manufacturing, the support of the policy effect is not obvious.According to the report, in addition to the aforementioned industry scale and overseas competitiveness indicators, such as accept the team access most experts agree that even though somebreakthrough in comac will have been

successfully the arj-21 and C919 two models to the market, may not be enough to break the situation of airbus and Boeing duopoly tightly.As one industry source said: “for China, the aircraft is not difficult, as long as have enough money.But there are running a vitality and competitiveness of aircraft manufacturing companies aren't so easy, money cannot solve all problems.”

According to the report, the commercial aviation manufacturing industry is an industry internationalization, standardization, the degree of marketization is very demanding.China is trying to adopt “nationalism”, “” raise the strength of his whole success, difficulties and challenges far more than expected.The report suggests, the Chinese government can consider to put more resources into general aviation manufacturing industry.Avic general aircraft co., LTD.Has made a series of international acquisitions in the sector, and laid a good foundation for open international markets.In addition, China can also by strengthening the protection of intellectual

property rights, investment environment for foreign enterprises to provide more fair, attract the giant airbus, Boeing and other more investment to establish joint venture in China, in order to make China better in international commercial aviation technology supply chain, and to promote endogenous development of relevant industries in China.