2017考研英语 近十年阅读文章来源汇总

第一篇：2017考研英语 近十年阅读文章来源汇总

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2017考研已经拉开序幕，很多考生不知道如何选择适合自己的考研复习资料。中公考研辅导老师为考生准备了考研英语方面的建议，希望可以助考生一臂之力。同时中公考研特为广大学子推出考研集训营、专业课辅导、精品网课、vip1对1等课程，针对每一个科目要点进行深入的指导分析，欢迎各位考生了解咨询。

了解考研英语阅读文章来源可以帮助我们更有针对性地复习，中公考研整理了近十年考研英语作文的文章来源，2017年考生可以全面了解一下。

2016年考研

1.2015年4月5日《基督教科学箴言报》

2.2014年11月15日《卫报》

3.2015年7月23日《经济学人》

4.2015年3月26日《美国大西洋月刊》

2015年考研

1.2014年6月4日《卫报》

2.2014年4月28日《华盛顿邮报》

3.2014年7月3日《自然杂志》

4.2014年6月29日《卫报》

2014年考研

1.2013年6月29日《卫报》

2.2013年2月2日《经济学人》

3.2013年6月12日《自然杂志》

4.2013年7月1日《华尔街日报在线》

阅读二：

1.2013年6月29日《经济学人》《金钱和幸福》

中公考研，让考研变得简单！

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2.2013年6月29日《星报在线》《怎样改善自己的相貌》

3.2012年12月17日《大思想》《我们能赢得与机器的比赛吗?》

4.2013年6月12日《卫报》《综合开支审查可能会扭转房市危机》

完型二：

2013年6月24日《美国大西洋月刊》《肥胖症真的是一种病吗?》

翻译二：

2009年3月《时代周刊》

2013年考研

1.2012年6月21日《商业周刊》

2.2012年6月9日《经济学人》

3.2012年5月23日《科学美国人》

4.2012年6月25日《华尔街日报》

2012年考研

阅读：

1.2011年3月24日《时代周刊》

2.2011年4月24日Boston.com

3.书《EverydayPractice of Science:Where Intuitionand Passion Meet Objective and Logic》

4.2011年3月17日《经济学人》

新题型：

2011年7月5日《新科学家》

翻译：

2011年4月20日《自然杂志》

2011年考研

阅读：

1.2007年9月《社评杂志》

2.2009年11月《商业周刊》

3.2010年1月《福布斯》

4.2010年7月9日《新闻周刊》

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新题型：

书《Professionalizing the professor:the difficultiesof an American doctoralstudent University education in America

翻译

书《Fifty self-helpclassics》

2010年考研

阅读：

1.不详

2.2008年2月26日《商业周刊》

3.2007年2月《哈佛经济评价》

4.2009年4月《经济学人》

新题型：

2008年4月美国哥伦比亚广播公司新闻报道

完型填空：

2009年6月6日《经济学人》

翻译：

书《A Sand County Almanac》

2008年考研

阅读

1.2006年12月《科学探索》

2.2005年9月22日《经济学人》

3.2001年7月《科学美国人》

4.2004年1月《美国新闻》

完型填空：

2005年6月2日《经济学人》

翻译：

木书屋达尔文传

2007年考研

中公考研，让考研变得简单！

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阅读：

1.2006年5月7日《纽约时报》

2.2001年5月《科学美国人》

3.2001年6月《哈佛杂志》

4.2005年6月《经济学人》

新题型

2005年1月《时代周刊》

2006年考研

阅读:

1.不详

2.2000年11月《观察家报》

3.2003年5月15日《经济学人》

4.2005年1月17日《时代周刊》

2005年考研

阅读：

1.2003年9月20日《经济学家》

2.2001年6月25日《美国新闻报道》

3.2002年7月15日《新闻周刊》

4.2004年1月31日《经济学人》

根据这些数据统计，我们不难发现，80%的考研英语阅读来源于《经济学人》、《卫报》、《自然杂志》、《新闻周刊》、《科学美国人》等。

偶尔也会在一些书籍中寻找合适的文字做考试素材，但不多见，尤其是这几年已经很难见到。

从体裁上看，大纲要求考生能够顺利读懂四类文章，分别为议论文、说明文、记叙文和应用文。不过，考研阅读理解的文章大多为说明文或者议论文。针对这两类文章，大家应该有不同的阅读重点和策略。

其中社会科学是考研英语阅读的主要和重点选材，自然科学一直保持在 1 篇文章左右的分量，人文科学的重要性则有上升的趋势。

中公考研，让考研变得简单！

查看更多考研英语辅导资料

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另外在绝大多数情况下，历年真题的文章来源一般控制在过去的5年之内，即倘若2007年参加考研的话，2007年的文章一般来自于2001年到2006年之间的报刊杂志上。

但近五年的真题来源有所改变，一般选自过去两年内的杂志，甚至一年内的居多，可见文章的时效性越来越明显，所以我们阅读的范围也就小了很多。

英语阅读真题文章一般字数上控制在450字到550字之间，段落上一般控制在3到6个段落。所以我们可以把精力主要集中在符合前面字数、段落以及年份的文章来进行复习和阅读，如此一来我们就把复习的范围大为减少了。

在紧张的复习中，中公考研提醒您一定要充分利用备考资料和真题，并且持之以恒，最后一定可以赢得胜利。更多考研英语复习资料欢迎关注中公考研网。

中公考研，让考研变得简单！

查看更多考研英语辅导资料

第二篇：了解考研阅读理解文章的来源和特点

了解考研阅读理解文章的来源和特点

考研英语阅读理解A部分的四篇文章一般都是来自英美国家一些享有较高声誉的权威报刊杂志，如Newsweek（《新闻周刊》），Now York Times（《纽约时报》），U.S.News and World Report（《美国新闻与世界报道》），The Economist（《经济学家》），Times（《时代周刊》）等等。海天考研辅导专家提醒考生，这些文章的内容既包罗万象又具有相当的时效性，大多涉及当年的热门话题，包括了社会科学、自然科学、人文科学等各个领域。

不同文章，不同策略

社会科学领域的题材囊括了经济、心理、教育、传播、家庭、人口、交通、环境、能源、法律、体育等各个方面，自然科学则包括了医学、生物、大气、地质、海洋、遗传、空间、信息、工程、农业等，而人文科学包括了语言学、哲学、文化、历史、艺术、文学评论、散文等。从体裁上看，大纲要求考生能够顺利读懂四类文章，分别为议论文、说明文、记叙文和应用文。不过，考研阅读理解的文章大多为说明文或者议论文。正对这两类文章，考生应该有不同的阅读重点和策略。海天考研辅导专家提醒考生，对于说明文来说，最重要的是抓住文章的说明对象、事实和数据;对于议论文来说，最重要的是总结作者的观点和结论、抓住作者的态度，以及作者的观点和态度与其他人的观点和态度之间的关系等等。通过历年真题题材可以看出，社会科学是考研英语阅读的主要和重点选材，自然科学一直保持在1篇文章左右的分量，人文科学的重要性则有上升的趋势。

严格筛选复习材料

考生在准备考研的过程中，应该充分重视上述的一些英美报纸杂志，平时要多看这些刊物，尤其是其中的议论、评论、报道和分析文章等。现在在国内买到英美国家原版报刊杂志的过刊还是比较容易的。如果考生想掌握最新文章，可以登陆这些刊物的官方网站去阅读，通常这些文章都是免费的，但有的需要交费订阅才可以，考生可以灵活把握。海天考研辅导专家提醒考生，如果考生有着广泛阅读的兴趣和习惯，能紧跟时代步伐、了解全球的重大事件、信息和资讯，就能够为考研阅读准备丰富厚实的背景材料，因而在阅读时可以充分利用自己的相关知识来帮助理解原文。考生应特别重视加强对于美国文化背景知识的了解，因为美国报纸杂志以及关于美国的报道是近几年考研阅读文章选材的重点。

第三篇：近十年考研英语真题生词汇总

1997: Passage1: Sink in: 被充分理解，被深刻感受或者领会 Sigh: 叹息；渴望；思念 Passage2: Observation:评论

Courteous: 好客的；有礼貌的；谦恭的 Diversion: 娱乐 Harsh: 严厉的，苛刻的 Weary: 疲劳的，劳累的 Passage3: Neutral: 中性的

Pervasive: 扩散，遍布，普及 Constructive:积极的 Perceptual: 知觉的 Withdraw: 收回，撤退

Hallucination:幻影，幻觉，梦幻 Passage4: Verse: 诗句，韵文，诗 Cite: 引用

Launch: 发射，开办，投入 Passage5: Lag: 落后，滞后，延迟 Panel: 专门问题小组 Analogy: 类推，类比，比喻 Defective: 有缺陷的 Capacity: 生产力

Thrilling: 令人震颤的；令人兴奋的 1998: Passage1: Giant: 巨型的，巨大的

At the mercy of:任凭….处置，听凭….摆布，无能为力 Bidding: 期望达到，寻求 Cement: 巩固，加强 Silt: 淤泥

Stop just short of:就差，几乎 Monster: 庞大的，巨大的 Passage2: Establish: 建造；设立；确立；认可；证实 Preside over: 主持，主管 Lump together: 合在一起 Anecdote: 轶事，趣闻 Overall: 整体的，总体的 Ineptly: 不恰当地，不合适地 Chop out: 大幅度消减 Blunt: 率直的 Passage3: Trial: 审判 Concern: 忧虑 Dispute: 争论，反驳 Tag: 标记 Manifesto: 宣言 Scorn: 轻视，藐视 Toannoy: 激怒 Depletion: 竭尽

Schism: 分裂，分歧，不和 Contradict: 反驳，否认 Passage4: Demographer: 人口学家 Plague: 灾难，灾祸 Passage5: Anchor: 停泊，固定

Mutability: 可变性，易变性，不定性 1999: Passage1: Hold…liable for: 认为。。对。。负责 Substantial weight: 举足轻重 Tort: 民事的侵权行为 Have one’s way: 随心所欲，自行其是 Passage2: Typically: 通常地 Customize: 定制，定做 Contempt: 鄙视，藐视 Resort: 求助，依赖 Revolve around: 围绕着 Tap: 开拓

Subscriber: 网络用户 Take the plunge: 冒险 May well: 很可能 Passage3: Go to the heart of: 涉及到。。的核心问题 An entirely different story:完全不同的一回事 Passage4: Animal husbandry: 畜牧业；畜牧学 Narrowly: 严谨地 Passage5: Cut and dried: 刻板的 2000: Passage1: Handicap: 障碍

Prosperous: 繁荣的，兴旺的 Primacy: 首位 Narrow: 下降 Retreat: 退却，撤退

On the ropes: 陷入窘境，走投无路 Casualty: 灾祸，意外 Sensational: 轰动性的 Yield: 出产；屈服；放弃 Dean: 学院院长；资深者，老前辈 Passage2: Tribal: 部落的

Grand: 庄严的；伟大的；华丽的 Savage: 野人 Mortality: 死亡率 Mediocrity:平常，平庸 Passage3: Attain: 形成，实现 Farfetched: 牵强附会的 Qualifying: 限制的，限定的 Type: 字体

Call for: 需要；邀请；请求 Passage4: See: 经历

Sacrifice: 牺牲，献出 Drop out: 辍学 Amid: 在其中 Outcry: 强烈的抗议

Raise eyebrow: 表示惊讶或不赞成 Passage5: Destiny: 命运 Deem: 认为

Vitality: 活力；持久性 Hypocrisy: 伪善，矫饰 Confess: 坦承，声称 Pushing: 爱出风头的 Acquisitive: 贪婪的 Vulgar: 粗俗的 Spectacle: 景象，光景 Sly: 狡猾的

Earnest: 热切的，急功近利的 Not least: 尤其是 2001: Passage1: Reflect on: 思考

In one’s own right: 靠自身条件 Referee: 评审 Passage2: Divide: 鸿沟

Looming: 隐约出现的；令人担忧的 Universalize: 普及 Impoverished: 贫困的 Sovereignty: 主权 Infrastructure: 基础设施 With respect to: 关于 Lie down: 屈从 Passage3: Headscratching: 令人为难的 Disconnect: 差距

Alien to: 对。。不熟悉 Put down root in: 定居 Get around to: 抽时间做 Flee: 躲避 Gender: 性别 Explosive: 极具争议的 Symposium: 研讨会，座谈会 Passage4: Go through: 经历 Merger: Affiliate: 分公司

With unsurpassed might: 以前所未有的力量 Argentina: 阿根廷

Underlie: 构成。。的基础

Detrimental: 有害的；伤害的；不利的 Supervise: 监督；管理；审查 Scanty: 稀少

Ultimate: 最后的，最终的；最根本的，最基本的； Warn against: 告诫 Take upon oneself: 承担 Infringement: 基础设施 Hyperactive: 极度活跃的 Passage5: Lateral: 横向的，侧面的 Profile: 侧面（像）Disgraced: 大势已去的 Tired: 陈旧的，陈腐的 Preach: 宣扬，极力鼓吹 Build-up: 积聚，增强 Politics: 手腕，权术，策略 Tip: 指导，忠告，插图

Redundancy: 裁员，解雇 2002: Passage1: Address:（向听众）致辞，讲话，演讲 In sympathy with: 赞成，支持 Inedible: 不能吃的，难以下咽的 Notorious: 声名狼藉的，臭名昭著的 Disparaging: 轻视的

Awkward: 笨拙的；难以应付的（人）；使用困难的；尴尬的 Delivery: 演讲声调或姿态 Passage2: Ingenuity: 创造力

Compulsion: 强迫，强制；冲力 Gizmo: 装置，机器

Confer sth.On sb: 赋予某人某物 Spell: 一段时间

Dynamic 精力充沛的；不断变化的 Winding: 蜿蜒的

Subway: 地下通道；地铁；地道 Passage3: Call up: 使人想起 Passage4: Agony: 痛苦，折磨

Carry important implication: 具有重要意义 2003: Passage1: Espionage: 间谍活动 Pastime: 消遣，娱乐

Spook: 鬼，幽灵（本文指间谍）Contest: 竞争

Make a splash: 引起轰动，惹人注目 Mutually: 相互地 Vacuum up: 整理 Whereby: 由此 Passage2: Paraphrase: 解释（本文指用。。话说）Allegation: 托辞，断言 Deliberately: 故意地

Rule out: 排除在外，拒绝考虑 Citizenry: 市民 Passage3: Substantial: 相当的，实际的，重要的 Subscribe: 赞同，支持 Captive: 受控制的 Consolidation: 合并 Arbiter: 仲裁人 Passage4: Pressing: 急迫的，紧急的

Expectancy: 期待，期望；可能性；预期 The old and infirm: 老弱病残的 Perish: 死；毁灭；损坏；枯萎 Shield: 保护 2004: Passage1: Promising: 有希望的；有前途的 Keep abreast of: 跟上。。，不落伍 Passage2: Insidious: 不知不觉的 Thumb through: 翻阅 Rot: 腐朽，腐化

Pose: 提出（问题）；引起；形成 Humiliation: 羞辱，蒙耻 Literally:（口语）简直 Ballot: 选票 Passage3: Middle-brow:（贬义）雅俗共赏的 Frenzied: 狂热的 Silver lining:（不幸中的）希望，慰籍 Passage4: Intellect: 才学

Pervasive: 到处弥漫的，普遍的 Bellyful: 满腹，满肚子 Populist:平民主义者

Hostility: 敌意，不友善，敌对 Contemplative: 沉思的，冥思的 Ponder: 沉思，考虑 2005: Passage1: All too: 太

In return for: 作为报答 The preserve: 独享之物 Passage2: Lobby: 游说

Parallel: 类似物，类似的事情 Upsetting: 使人烦乱得 Fume: 烟，气体；激怒

Take out an insurance policy: 买保险 Classic: 典型的 Paralysis: 麻痹；瘫痪 Steward: 管理员；服务员

Administration: 行政机关，政府，管理部门 Fashion: 制定 Incentive: 激励，鼓励 Promising: 有希望的，有前途的 Stay out of way: 不妨碍 Passage3: Literally: 不折不扣的 At the end of the day: 说到底 Visualize: 想象，设想 Passage4: Permissive: 自由的，随意的 Cult: 崇拜，时尚 Spell: 招致 Elevate: 有修养的

Performative: 富有表现力的 Genre: 类型

Spontaneity: 随兴发挥的 Craft: 精心设计的 Illustrate: 举例说明 Grieve: 悲痛，沮丧 Think straight: 正确思考 2006: Passage1: Discourse: 演讲，谈吐，论文 Assimilation: 吸收，同化 Indices: INDEX的复数，指标 Bilingual: 能说两种语言的 Divisive: 引起分裂的，不和的 Turbulent: 狂暴的，**的 Deteriorate: 堕落，降低，使恶化 Seething: 火热的，沸腾的 Passage2: Townsfolk: 市民，镇民 Playgoer: 戏迷 Council: 市/镇的议会

Anyway: 无论如何（=ANYHOW）Clientele: 客户 Pointed: 率直的

Live off: 住在。。外，靠。。生活 Take in: 详尽地看，注视 On the side: 顺便，附带 Passage3: Game: 狩猎的 Vessel: 船只 Prey: 被捕食的动物 Saturated: 饱和的 Bait: 诱惑，装诱饵 Hook: 钩

Marine: 海洋的，海产的，海事的 Passage4: Phony: 虚伪的

Skeptical: =sceptical怀疑的 Massacre: 大屠杀 Misery: 痛苦，不幸 Depict: Bummer: 描画，叙述

令人烦恼的事情或人，懒汉，失败者

第四篇：近十年考研英语的阅读理解出处

在我们整理查找历年真题阅读理解文章来源时，惊讶的发现历年考研英语阅读理解文章的来源选择是有规律的。考研文章绝大多数来自英美国家的报刊杂志，以面向大众的大众社科类和科普类刊物为主。倘若我们找到了这个规律，那么我们的广大考生在平时复习时，在选择阅读的材料上就有了目的性，相对来说，我们广大的考生也会事半功倍的。我们通过分析近10年的文章来源，从而将文章来源规律整理出如下：

1、经济类文章主要来源：

The Economist（经济学家），Business Week（商业周刊），WallStreetJournal（华尔街杂志）；

2、科学技术类文章主要来源：

Nature（自然），Discovery（探索），Science（科学），NationalGeographic（国家地理），Scientific American（科学美国人），New Scientists（新科学家）；

3、社会生活以及文化类文章主要来源：

Newsweek（新闻周刊），Times（时代周刊），U.S News and WorldReport（美国新闻与世界报道），The Washington Post（华盛顿邮报），USA Today（今日美国），TheTimes（泰晤士报），The Guardian（卫报），和（美国新闻在线）；

4、其它来源：

Independent（独立日报），International Herald Tribune（国际先驱论坛），Telegraph（英国电信日报）；

经过上面的整理，我们不难发现倘若我们准备的时间充分，我们完全有可能在考研前、在平时复习的过程中就把当年考试的文章事先阅读过，那样自然就能取得一个很好的成绩了。

但是，我们广大的考生在复习的过程中无论花费多少时间几乎是不可能把上面说到的所有杂志都阅读完毕的，而且每年选择来考查考生的文章并不一定是本发表的文章。这就为我们复习的工作增加了很大的难度。

所以，我们有必要对历年的文章来源再次进行总结。结果我们发现，在绝大多数情况下，历年真题的文章来源一般控制在过去的5年之内，即倘若2007年参加考研的话，2007年的文章一般来自于2002年到2006年之间的报刊杂志上。当然历史上也有少部分文章不受年份的限制。这时我们阅读的范围就小了很多。

又因为在整理统计过程中，我们发现历年真题的文章一般字数上控制在450字到550字之间，段落上一般控制在3到6个段落，所以我们可以把精力主要集中在符合前面字数、段落以及年份的文章来进行复习和阅读，如此一来我们就把复习的范围大为减少了。

根据近5年的文章来源，我们发现，80%以上的文章来自于The Economist（经济学家），Newsweek（新闻周刊），Times（时代周刊）以及U.S News and WorldReport（美国新闻与世界报道）四本杂志。因此，可以再次将我们复习的范围缩小，根据不完全统计2005年TheEconomist（经济学家）全年的50多期杂志里平均每期符合考研阅读理解命题文章要求的每期不超过3篇。所以，只要我们精心地把此处提及的符合考查要求的文章挑选出来进行精读，那是最好的考研阅读的课后阅读材料。

第五篇：考研英语阅读材料 economist相关文章

《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版

Translated From 《The Economist》,By ecocn team http://www.xiexiebang.com 埃及:核武总统

穆罕默德•巴拉迪

From fission to Pharaoh? 从核武到政权

Dec 17th 2009 | CAIRO From The Economist print edition

Egyptian reformers suggest a possible president 埃及的改革者建议的未来总统

Getty Images

Planting a bomb under Egyptian politics 在埃及的政治舞台埋下炸弹

WHEN Mohamed ElBaradei won the Nobel peace prize in 2005, Egyptians happily proclaimed him a national hero.But now that he has retired after 12 years as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, some are calling him a villain.He may be an American or even an Iranian agent, hint editorials in Egypt’s state-owned press.He bears a nasty grudge against his native country after so long abroad, grumble other government mouthpieces.当穆罕默德•巴拉迪在2005年获得诺贝尔和平奖时，埃及人兴奋的称他为国家英雄。但现在，当他从工作了十二年的国际原子能机构（联合国核武器监察机构）总干事职务上退休时，有些人却称呼他恶棍。埃及的国有新闻机构发表社论，暗指他可能是美国甚至是伊朗的间谍。在国外多年之后，他对自己的祖国怀有恶毒的怨恨，抱怨其他的政府官员。

The reason for this sudden spate of spurious insinuation? Responding to pleas from reform-minded Egyptians despairing of local politics, Mr ElBaradei has suggested he may return to Egypt and run for president in elections due in 2011.Worse yet, he has deigned to propose conditions for his possible candidacy.The poll, he says, must meet internationally accepted standards.突然爆发的这些恶意指责，原因是什么呢？巴拉迪先生响应了埃及国内那些绝望的改革派的呼吁，承认他可能会返回埃及，参与2011年的总统选举。更糟糕的是，他为他的参选提出了条件，他说，投票选举必须符合国际通行的准则。

For so prominent a citizen to toss his hat into the ring would cause scarcely a shrug elsewhere.In Egypt, where five decades under a single party and almost three under its present leader, President Hosni Mubarak, have smothered all but a pretence of democracy, it has raised a big cloud of dust.The notion of Mr ElBaradei’s candidacy brings a frisson of unpredictability to what Egyptians had assumed would be a scripted outcome, giving either a sixth six-year term to Mr Mubarak, now 81, or a win for his son, Gamal, who steers policy in the ruling National Democratic Party(NDP).对于一个如此名声显赫的公民参与选举，在别的地方可能并不能算是什么。但在埃及却能搅起风暴。这个国家在过去的五十年里一直被同一个政党统治，现任总统胡斯尼•穆巴拉克的统治几乎就占了三十年,民主已经成为虚假的表象。埃及人本以为选举的结果已经确定，要么是给已经81岁的穆巴拉克第六个六年任期，要么就是他的儿子贾迈勒当选，目前他已经开始掌控民族民主党（NDP）。但巴拉迪参选的打算给这次选举带来了变数。

More annoyingly for Egypt’s rulers, Mr ElBaradei’s declaration of conditions has cast unwonted light on the crafty constitutional mechanics that allow the stage-managing of Egypt’s supposed democracy.Even to become a legal independent candidate, for instance, Mr ElBaradei would need to collect 250 signatures from a range of “elected” officials, all of whom happen to sit in bodies massively dominated by the NDP.令埃及统治者更加感到恼怒的是巴拉迪所宣称的选举条件，因为这将引起大众对宪法的关注，而在现有的宪法，在机制上可巧妙地确保对埃及所宣称的民主选举进行某种暗箱操作。例如，为了成为一个合法的独立候选人，巴拉迪需要在选举的官员中收集到250签名推荐，而这些官员却大多属于统治党民族民主党（NDP）。

Perhaps not even Mr ElBaradei himself expects that he may be allowed to become a serious challenger.Yet such is the depth of frustration with Egypt’s stagnant politics and many social ills, particularly among the generation that has known no rule except Mr Mubarak’s, that even this distant hope has stirred passions.Surprisingly, considering that he has spent most of the past 40 years outside Egypt, and rarely pronounced on its troubles, some 21,000 enthusiasts have signed on to a Facebook support group.Perhaps theirs is the voice of Egypt’s future.或许即使巴拉迪自己也没有奢望自己会被允许成为一个正式的挑战者。然而正是这种埃及国内沉闷的政治环境和社会问题，特别是那些在穆巴拉克统治下成长起来的一代人中，缥缈的希望也给人们带来了巨大的激情。因此，即使巴拉迪在过去的40年中大部时间都在国外度过，也很少讨论埃及所面临的问题，却仍然有21，000热烈支持者签名加入在Facebook网站的支持群组。或许他们代表了埃及未来的呼声。

发表于09:05 | 阅读全文 | 评论 58 | 编辑 | 分享2  印度:农业转向制造业

2009-12-26

An imperfect storm

一场不完美的风暴

Nov 13th 2009 From The World in 2010 print edition By Simon Cox, DELHI

Thanks partly to the monsoon, manufacturing will overtake agriculture for the first time in India 一定程度上得归功于季风气候，印度的制造业总值将首次超越农业。

From the village of Vijay Pura in the Indian state of Rajasthan, the global financial crisis seems remote.The downturn is something people here read about in the newspapers, according to Dhanna Singh, a member of the Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan(MKSS), a union of activists and farmers.The villages have welcomed back migrant workers from neighbouring states, where people no longer find work twisting steel in Mumbai or polishing diamonds in Surat.But, by and large, India’s rural poor were protected from the crisis by the same things that make them poor.If you never had secure employment or many financial assets, you cannot lose them to the crisis.对于印度拉贾斯坦邦维杰.普拉村来说，全球性金融危机似乎很遥远。根据德哈那.辛格，一名积极分子与农场主联合会MKSS成员的说法，经济低迷只是这里的人们从报纸上读到的谈资而已。很多移民工人从邻国返回到这里，因为他们在那儿找不到工作，既不能在孟买扭钢筋，也不能在苏拉特磨钻石。总的来说，印度贫困地区的人民因其贫困而免受经济危机的影响，因为，既然没有可靠就业和大量的财务资产，也就不会在经济危机中丧失。

In Rajasthan, this resilience is also the result of government policy.The National Rural Employment Guarantee Act(NREGA), extended to every rural district in April 2008, is supposed to offer 100 days of work a year, at the minimum wage, to every rural household that needs it.Rajasthan, a parched state with a long history of drought-relief works, comes closer to fulfilling that promise than anywhere else, providing 68 days of work on average in the year to March 2008, according to a survey published in Frontline, an Indian newsweekly.Vijay Pura is cross-hatched with hard-packed roads built by people on the act’s payroll.Thanks to the roll-out of the NREGA and a hike in the minimum wage, “People here are feeling a sense of security for the first time,” says Shankar Singh of the MKSS.在拉贾斯坦邦，这次经济反弹也是政府政策的产物。2008年四月全国农村地区就业保证法案扩展到了每一个农村地区，在最低工资下有望在一年里提供100天的工作时间给每一个需要的家庭。发表在印度的一家新闻周刊《前线》的调查显示，从今年到2008年三月，拉贾斯坦邦这个有着悠久抗旱历史的的“旱邦”将提供平均68天的工作时间，相对其他地方离兑现承诺更近了。维杰.普拉位于几条硬化路的交叉点上，这些路是就业保证法案覆盖到的雇员修建的。幸亏有该法案的出台及最低工资水平的提高，“这里的人们第一次有了一种安全感，”MKSS的成员香卡.辛格说。

The strength of rural demand is one reason why India escaped from the crisis so lightly.Sales of many “fast-moving” consumer goods, such as shampoo and toothpaste, are now growing faster in the villages than in the cities.Rural India’s purchases of chyawanprash, an ayurvedic paste that eases digestion and bolsters the immune system, outpaced urban India’s by over six percentage points in the second quarter.And Maruti Suzuki, India’s biggest carmaker, more than doubled its sales in rural areas in the year to March 2009.农村地区的需求力量是印度得以如此轻易地从金融危机中脱身的原因之一。许多诸如洗发水、牙膏之类的快速消费品需求如今在农村比城市要增长得更快些。第二季度，一些有助于消化、增强免疫系统的阿叔吠陀膏药chyawanprash的农村消费比城镇超出六个百分点，且截至2009年3月，印度最大的汽车制造商马鲁蒂铃木在农村地区的汽车销量翻了一番还多.India’s economy is now on the cusp of an historic transition.印度经济正经历历史性转型

But, having weathered the financial crisis, rural India must now weather the weather.The monsoon rains, which feed India’s unirrigated farmland, have been fickle, inflicting drought on almost half of India’s districts, followed by floods in some areas as the monsoon departed.In a worst-case scenario, India’s agricultural output could shrink by up to 7% in the fiscal year ending in March 2010, according to Citigroup.That would drag India’s GDP growth down to 5.2%, slower than in the thick of the financial crisis.但是度过了这次金融危机后，印度农村还要扛得过气候问题。哺育印度干旱农田的季风雨反复无常，使一半以上的印度地区遭受旱灾的折磨，接着便是季风过后在一些地区发生的涝灾。花旗集团的数据显示，到2010年3月的财政，印度的农业产出在最糟糕的情况下将会以7%的速度萎缩，这将使印度的GDP增长减少到5.2%，比金融危机风起云涌时还要低。

The drought will raise food prices, adding to inflation.India is already the only big economy where consumer prices are rising faster now than they were before the crisis.The price of pulses rose by 20% in the year to August 28th;the price of sugar by 35%.That will force the Reserve Bank of India to tighten monetary policy.Goldman Sachs expects it to raise rates by as much as three percentage points in 2010.Spending on drought relief will also add to the government’s yawning fiscal deficit, which will exceed 10% of GDP this fiscal year, if the budget gaps of the state governments are included.干旱将抬高食品价格，助长通货膨胀。当前印度现在已经是唯一一个消费者价格比危机前上升更快的大经济体了，截至今年8月28日，价格已以5%的幅度上升，其中糖价上升35%，这将迫使印度储备银行收紧货币政策。高盛预期印度的价格指数将在2010年上升3个百分点。对旱灾的赈济开支将加剧政府本已高企的财政赤字，如果加上各邦政府的预算缺口在内，2010年的财政赤字将超过GDP的10%。

The monsoon once decided India’s economic fate.Now it only influences it.Agriculture’s share of India’s national output has dropped from 40% 30 years ago to 17% in 2009.Indeed, India’s economy is now on the cusp of an historic transition.In 2010 agriculture will account for a smaller share of GDP than manufacturing: India’s output of widgets will exceed its output of wheat, rice, cotton and the other fruits of the land.The factory will surpass the farm.季风曾经决定印度经济的命运，现在则只能起影响作用。农业在印度全国产出的比重已从三十年前的40%跌到2009年的17%.不错，印度经济正处在历史性转型的关头，GDP中农业产值将比制造业占有更小的比重：印度小机械产品产值将超过小麦，水稻，棉花和其他一些农作物。工厂将超越农场。

Return to the glory days

回到峥嵘岁月

That is not just because agriculture is poised to shrink.Manufacturing, which stagnated during the crisis, should recover smartly in 2010.It was already growing by over 7% in July 2009, according to the index of industrial production.Investment in new plant and machinery will get a boost from the return of foreign capital inflows, some $44.1 billion in the year to March 2010 and $52.1 billion the following year, according to Rohini Malkani of Citigroup.About 35-40% of those flows will be foreign direct investment.这不仅仅是因为农业准备要收缩，在金融危机中停滞的制造业将在2010年悄然复苏，工业生产指数显示其在2009年7月已经增长7%强。依照花旗集团的（首席经济学家）罗希尼•马尔卡尼的观点，在国际资本回流的帮助下，厂房和机器投资将在2010年3月及接下来的一年分别获得441亿、521亿美元的极大提振，其中约35%-40%将属于国外直接投资。

India’s historians often hark back to the glory days of manufacturing in the 18th century, when Indian artisans produced calicoes and other fabrics of such appeal that Britain’s spinners, weavers and printers clamoured(successfully)for import bans to protect their livelihoods.印度的历史学家常常重提18世纪制造业的峥嵘岁月，那时印度的能工巧匠们生产白羊布及其他一些类似的纤维织物，这引起英国的纺纱工人、织布工和印染工嚷嚷着（成功地）颁布进口禁令以保护他们的生计。

During Britain’s industrial revolution, however, Indian weavers were “thrown back on the soil”.India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, wrote that India’s industrial destiny had been thwarted by imperial economics.In 2010, thanks to a failure of the monsoon and a recovery of the world economy, India’s agriculture will at last give way to its manufacturing prowess.然而，英国工业革命期间,印度的纺织工“被摔在了地上”，印度第一任总理贾瓦哈拉尔.尼赫鲁写道：印度工业的命运已经被英帝国经济所击倒。多亏雨水不足的雨季和世界经济的复苏，印度2010年的农业最终将让位于制造技术。

发表于09:00 | 阅读全文 | 评论 19 | 编辑 | 分享 0  西班牙赌博业:全民赌博

2009-12-19

Spain's El Gordo lottery 西班牙的“大肥彩”

Gamblers united 大家联手赌一把

Dec 17th 2009 | MADRID From The Economist print edition

How an original business model got Spaniards hooked 一个古老的商业模式缘何让西班牙人全民皆赌

IT IS called El Gordo(“the Fatty”)because of the huge amount it pays out: *2.3 billion($3.3 billion)in this year’s draw, to be held on December 22nd.Yet Spain’s Christmas lottery is notable not just for the vast sums to be won, but also for its clever business model.我们称它为“大肥彩”（El Gordo(“the Fatty”)），是因为它将在今年12月22号开出的超级巨额大头彩--23亿欧元（33亿美元）。但是西班牙的圣诞博彩之所以值得一提，不仅仅因为它提供的巨额奖金，还因为它精明的商业运作模式。

Spaniards are not especially big gamblers, with spending per head below the average for the European Union, according to a 2006 study by London Economics, a consultancy.Yet they spend about *12 billion a year on lottery tickets, over 1% of GDP—almost as much as the country spends on research and development.Roughly three-quarters of them participate in the Christmas lottery.西班牙人其实不算爱赌博。根据某咨询公司“伦敦经济”（London Economics）2006年的一项研究，西班牙的人均博彩开销低于欧盟的平均水平。但是，他们每年在买彩票上花的钱达120亿欧元，占本国GDP的1%上，几乎和该国的研发开支齐平。其中，大约有四分之三的人会参加圣诞节期间的那次开彩。

Loterías y Apuestas del Estado, the government agency that runs El Gordo and other lotteries during the year, encourages mass participation by dividing each *200 ticket into décimos, or tenths, which sell for *20.This, in turn, allows players to improve their odds by buying small shares in many tickets, often by forming syndicates with friends and colleagues.The lottery also offers enough smaller prizes in addition to its jackpots to give participants almost a one-in-six chance of winning something.每年管理“大肥彩”和其他一些乐透的政府机构Loterías y Apuestas del Estado，通过将每张200欧的彩票分割成10小张，每小张售20欧的方式，鼓励国民的广泛参与。这样一来，参与者可以在更多大张彩票中购买数张小额股份，而这一般可通过与朋友同事合购的方式实现。除了头彩，它还设置了很多小额的奖励，使得参与者基本上每抽六次，就可以赢回点东西。

All this has transformed the lottery from a glorified tax on the poor, as it is in most countries, into part of the social fabric.Sharing tickets at Christmas has become a way to reinforce social ties, says Roberto Garvía, a visiting professor at Georgetown University.The practice of forming syndicates, which initially started in the 19th century when lottery tickets became too expensive for working-class folk, has become a tradition among all classes.As one banker says, “I don’t want to be the only idiot who has to turn up to work if the office number wins.” Even the Spanish Civil War did not succeed in shaking the lottery’s grip: each side held its own Christmas draw.这一切使得博彩业由一种被美化了的向穷人征收的税收（多数国家都是这样的情况），变成了社会生活中的一元素。“在圣诞节和别人凑份子买彩票已经成了强化社会关系的纽带。”乔治敦大学（Georgetown University）的做客教授Roberto Garvía如是说道。凑份子的做法最初起源于19世纪，因为当时的彩票贵得让工人阶层买不起。后来，这个传统就在各个阶层就传下来了。正如某个崽银行职员说的：“我可不像成为那个全办公室人都中奖了，却得继续一个人埋头工作的那个傻蛋儿。”

The biggest winner is the Spanish government, which receives 30% of the revenue from ticket sales, less the running costs.But it need not feel too exploitative, argue Mr Garvía and Mauro Guillén of the Wharton School of Business, who have studied lottery syndicates along with Andrés Santana of the Fundación March: “There is some evidence that at Christmas time, syndicates lure into the lottery the relatively wealthy, which might make it less regressive.”

最大的赢家是西班牙政府，它们从彩票销售收入中可以获得30%的收益，还不包括运营成本。“但是也没必要觉得被剥削了”，沃顿商学院的Mr Garvía和Mauro Guillén解围道。他们曾经和“前进基金会”（Fundación March）的Andrés Santana一起研究过博彩业中凑份子现象这一课题。他们解释道：“数据显示，在圣诞节期间，凑份子的做法会吸引更多相对富有的人购买彩票，这就使得它更像是一个累积税。”

发表于01:09 | 阅读全文 | 评论 5 | 编辑 | 分享 0  银行业竞争：速度为王

2009-12-04

A special report on business and finance in Brazil

Survival of the quickest 最速者生存

Nov 12th 2009 From The Economist print edition

Frequent crises have made for strong banks and nimble financiers 频繁发生危机已使银行更健全，金融业者思惟更敏捷

BRAZILIAN businessmen often say that the country’s recent economic past has strengthened companies, and especially banks.The argument goes like this: you need to be good, or at least inventive, to survive and make money when you have no idea whether inflation next year will be 50% or 500%.Bankers and finance directors have had to be particularly nimble.One example is Souza Cruz(a subsidiary of BAT), Brazil’s largest tobacco company, which in the days of high inflation did no better than break even on its cigarette sales.Its profits came from the interest on the cash it held between being paid by retailers and paying tax fortnightly.Companies used to operating in such unusual circumstances flourished when life became more predictable.巴西商人经常说，巴西最近在经济上的经历增强了公司体质，尤其是银行业。类似说法包括︰贵公司必须体质更好（或至少具备创新能力）以存活下来，在意想不到的时机赚大钱，无论明年通货膨胀将是50%或500%。尤其，银行业者和金融主管的思惟必须更敏捷灵活。举一个例子，巴西最大烟草商Souza Cruz（英美烟草BAT子公司）在高通膨期间，香烟销量甚至几乎与歇业时期一样。该公司却从零售商支付货款与隔周缴税之间的盈余现金衍生利息上获利。当景气转好时，过去习惯于在非常时期经营的公司就发大财了。

There is some truth to this argument, even though it brushes aside the fact that until the 1990s Brazilian companies did not have to worry about foreign competitors.No big companies went bust in the recent financial crisis, despite losses on foreign-exchange derivatives that the Bank for International Settlements estimates at $25 billion.Moreover, no big banks wobbled, let alone had to be rescued, though there were some mergers.有一些事实可以支撑这个说法，即使该说法漠视在巴西公司企业在1990年代之前从不必担心外国竞争者的事实。尽管国际结算银行估计，最近金融海啸期间巴西外汇损失高达250亿美元，但没有任何一家大型企业破产。此外也没有一家大型银行财务不稳，遑论需要政府救援，但有发生一些合并。

One reason was that a previous round of bank failures, in 1994, had already cleared out the bad ones.Until then banks made their profits by taking deposits from customers, lending the money to the government overnight and pocketing the difference.With inflation at several hundred per cent a year, many banks’ balance-sheets were hard to decipher.When inflation came down, it became clear that a number of them were insolvent.These folded or merged with other banks, leaving only the stronger ones.理由之一是1994年前一波银行倒闭，已经清理了体质较差的银行。在那之前，这些银行藉由提领客户存款、一夜之间借钱给政府并装进别人的口袋来赚取利润。由于一年内通膨高达几个百分之七八百，很多银行资产负债表根本无法判读。当通膨来临，很明显许多银行面临破产。这些银行纷纷倒闭或与其它银行合并，只留下体质较健全的银行。

Brazil’s financial system got a further boost from reforms carried out when Arminio Fraga was governor of the central bank from 1999 until the start of 2003(he is now at Gávea Investimentos, an investment firm).The country’s bank-settlement system now operates in real time, so all banks know their cash positions at any given moment and the central bank has an overall picture of what is happening.Before this system was introduced the central bank often ended up honouring the debts of banks that went bust, creating a dangerous incentive to be careless.Both Mr Fraga and his successor as governor, Henrique Meirelles, have made sure that banks report what is going on in any off-balance-sheet vehicles they have funded.This has helped to keep under control the special investment vehicles, conduits and other mysterious creatures that have caused so much damage in other countries.巴西金融体系在Arminio Fraga担任央行行长期间（1999至2003年初）进行大刀阔斧改革并获得大幅提升，目前他担任投资公司Gávea Investimentos总裁。巴西的银行结算制度目前以实时方式运作，因此所有银行在任何时刻都能掌握自己的现金状况，而央行则掌控各银行实时情况的总图。这套制度引进之前，央行经常要收拾残局支付破产银行的债务，建立了危险诱因却不自知。Arminio Fraga和下一任行长Henrique Meirelles，确保各银行的报表在他们设立之不列入资产负债的任何平台上继续运转。这些有利于控管曾在其它国家造成严重伤害的特别投资平台、管道和其它神秘工具。

This transparency extends to financial markets too.All fund managers must disclose the net asset value of their funds to Brazil’s Securities and Exchange Commission(CVM)daily, though with a 48-hour delay.At the end of every month funds must disclose what they were holding 90 days ago.Anyone can go to the CVM’s website and look up these numbers.Fund managers may grumble about too much disclosure, but most are happy with the rules.Maria Helena Santana, who chairs the CVM, explains that they make it harder to pull off a scam of the sort run by Bernard Madoff, whose pyramid scheme was hidden behind a veil of secrecy.此一透明制度亦延伸至金融市场。所有基金经理人每天必须向巴西证券交易委员会（CVM）公开他们手上基金的净资产价值，但有48小时延迟。在每个月底，各檔基金必须公开他们90天以前的持股比例，任何人都可以去CVM的网站查阅这些数字。基金经理人虽然可能因公开太多而牢骚满腹，但大多数经理人都乐于接受法规约束。CVM主席Maria Helena Santana阐述，他们会使Bernard Madoff操作的诈骗手法（藏身在秘密面纱后的树状网）更难抽身。

Created equal 建立公平制度

Equity investors, for their part, have benefited from new rules for publicly traded companies brought in by the São Paulo stock exchange(Bovespa)in 2002.Big Brazilian companies used to be notorious for abusing shareholders with minority stakes.Under current guidelines, it is illegal to issue shares that pay out different amounts to different holders in the event of a takeover.Any disputes between shareholders are judged by the CVM.With these rules in place, foreigners have been happy to buy shares and Brazilian companies that were unable to borrow in capital markets are now able to finance their expansion.适用于公开上市公司的新法规在2002年引进圣保罗股市（Bovespa）后，股票投资人亦因而获利。巴西大型企业过去因坑杀持股少数的小股东而臭名昭彰。根据现今规范，在收购过程配发不同股东不同股息比例的股票就是非法的。股东之间的任何争论由CVM裁判。由于这些法规到位，外资乐于购买巴西股票，过去在资本市场借不到钱的巴西企业，现在可以筹措资金大展鸿图。

A boom in initial public offerings(IPOs)followed.At its height, in 2007, 80% of the money for IPOs came from foreign investors.This undoubtedly led to some excesses: at one point there were more listed housebuilders in Brazil than in America.But some of the companies that floated will do well.And the message conveyed by the new rules—that better corporate governance allows people to make money by selling bits of their companies on the stock exchange—has been good for the family businesses that make up the bulk of Brazil’s medium-sized firms.首次公开售股（IPOs）的荣景接踵而至。极盛时期，2007年，八成左右的IPOs资金来自外资。这无疑造成了某些过度现象︰巴西股票上市的房屋营造商曾经一度比美国的还要多。但是，某些流通股票的公司反而业绩亮眼。并且，新的法规传达出一种讯息──更好的公司管理允许员工利用出售部分公司持股在股市赚钱──对于构成巴西中型企业绝大部分的家族企业而言绝对有益。

Reuters

Plenty to Celebrate 很多事情值得庆祝

Santander Brasil’s recent IPO was a test of whether investors’ appetite for Brazil had returned.It proved to be the world’s largest IPO this year, valuing the bank’s Brazilian subsidiary at more than the whole of Deutsche Bank worldwide.The government is so worried about foreign portfolio investors pushing up the value of the real that it imposed a 2% tax in October to discourage them.IPOs have a wider benefit because companies that want to float all or part of their stock need to get their accounts in order, pay their taxes and make sure their workers are not part of the black economy.Santander Brasil（土生金银行巴西子公司）最近一次IPO就是外资是否对于巴西恢复信心的测试。这次发行被证实为今年全球最大一笔IPO，使得 Santander银行巴西子公司资产超越了全球Deutsche Bank（德意志银行）的总和。巴西政府非常担心外资持股投资人会让黑奥（巴西币）强劲升值，于是在今年十月征收2%税金以阻挡外资进场。IPOs拥有很大利益，想要流通全部或部分股票的公司需要按顺序建立自己的账户、支付自己的税款，并确保自己的员工不是逃税的黑市经济之一。

All this has brought sophistication and liquidity to Brazil’s financial markets.São Paulo’s futures and options market is one of the five largest in the world by volume traded.Well-developed markets have been good for consumers too.High interest rates, high inflation and dysfunctional courts once made consumer credit rarer than snow.Thanks in part to a series of reforms carried out in Lula’s first term, credit has grown steadily.Loans for bigger items, such as cars and apartments, have become available for the first time, thanks to a new law under which a lender remains the owner of the asset acquired with the loan until the last repayment is made, whereas previously the money would have had to be chased up through the courts.所有这些已经让巴西金融市场更加成熟和流动。以交易量而言，圣保罗期货市场排名全球五大期货市场之一，完善发展的市场也对于消费者有益。高利率、高通膨和功能不彰的法院一度使消费者贷款消失殆尽。部分归因于鲁拉总统第一任期进行的一连串改革，消费者融资已经稳定成长。大笔金额（例：汽车和公寓）的贷款第一次可以提供，归因于一项新法，出借人在收回最后一笔偿债之前仍是那笔贷款的资产拥有人，不像从前债务必须经由法院去追踪。

Lula’s first administration also introduced a new bankruptcy law that is credited with making it slightly easier to salvage something from companies that go under.There was room for improvement: a few years ago a World Bank study found that bankruptcy proceedings in Brazil took an average of ten years and left creditors with just two cents in every dollar owed.鲁拉的第一任政府亦引进了新破产法，提供贷款使得抢救某些公司免于破产更为容易。还有需要改进的空间︰几年前，世界银行的一项研究发现破产程序在巴西平均要花十年工夫，而债权人仅能从每一美元的欠债拿回两美分。

Yet for all this progress, two glaring problems with Brazil’s financial system remain.First, credit is very expensive.Second, only the government will lend for long periods, and not to everyone.可是，由于全部这些发展使巴西金融制度留下两个耀眼问题。首先，融资非常昂贵。其次，只有政府可以办理长期借款，而且不是提供给每个人。

Tax and lend 征税和放款

Brazil has a hybrid retail banking system, with state-controlled and private-sector banks competing directly.It is highly concentrated: Itaú Unibanco, the largest private bank, is among the world’s 15 biggest on several measures and yet has almost no presence outside Brazil.Banco do Brasil, the largest state-controlled bank and one of the world’s oldest financial institutions, vies with it for the title of the country’s biggest bank.All told, credit from state-controlled banks makes up 37.6% of the total and has recently been growing.巴西拥有一套混合的零售金融制度，由国营银行与民营银行直接竞争。这是高度集中的︰巴西最大的民营银行Itaú Unibanco，从某些标准而言排名全球十五大银行之列，但在巴西以外几乎不存在。最大国营银行和全球最古老的金融机构之一Banco do Brasil（巴西银行），与Itaú Unibanco竞争巴西最大银行头衔。据说，国营银行的融资金额占总金额37.6%，并且最近还在成长。

Despite their different owners, the state-controlled and the private banks seem to be behaving in a remarkably similar way.Aldemir Bendini, the chief executive of Banco do Brasil, talks enthusiastically about international expansion.The bank will soon open five agencies in America to serve Brazilian expatriates.It also wants to help Brazilian multinationals abroad with local-currency financing.Meanwhile it will keep up its role as an instrument of public policy that does the bidding of the federal government, its biggest shareholder, and also look after the 22% of its shareholders who own traded stock.It looks like an incongruous mixture, but it appears to work.Itaú Unibanco too is keen on expansion abroad, but makes so much money at home that it does not seem to be in a rush.尽管他们的所有人不同，但国营和民营银行在行为表现上却似乎非常相似。Banco do Brasil首席执行长Aldemir Bendini热情地谈论在国际上的扩展业务。该银行不久将在美国开设五家分行，提供给移居国外的巴西人，亦想要以当地货币融资协助在海外的巴西跨国企业。同时将保持身为公共政策执行工具的角色，替最大股东联邦政府进行国际招标作业，并且照顾持有上市交易股票比例22%的一般股东。虽然看起来像是不和谐的混合物，但Banco do Brasil似乎却工作。Itaú Unibanco亦对扩展国外业务有强烈兴趣，但在国内赚了太多钱，好像一点都不匆忙。

In theory, all this should provide plenty of competition, with the two types of bank keeping each other honest and making sure that Brazilians have access to credit.In practice it does not quite work like that.Even though Itaú alone has 25,000 cash points, more than 500 municipalities in Brazil lack even a single bank branch.The two kinds of bank compete most fiercely in the comparatively wealthy south and south-east of the country.Banco do Brasil recently added to the geographical concentration by buying Nossa Caixa, a São Paulo state savings bank, and a large stake in Banco Votorantim, a private-sector bank.理论上，这一切应该提供大量竞争力，让两种不同类型银行维持彼此诚实并确保巴西民众可以取得融资。实际上，却完全不是那么回事。虽然单就Itaú银行而言就有25,000家分行，但巴西五百多个市镇甚至连一家分行都没有。两家银行在巴西最富裕的南部和东南部激烈竞争，Banco do Brasil最近藉由并购圣保罗州营储蓄银行Nossa Caixa及民营银行Banco Votorantim的大半股份，来增加在地理上的集中性。

The government has raised the limit for foreign participation in Banco do Brasil to 20% to attract more capital, but the state-controlled banks are not as well run as the private-sector ones, so the hoped-for competition has not materialised.The clearest sign of this is spreads—the difference between a bank’s cost of borrowing and lending.The Institute for Industrial Development, a lobby group, calculates that average lending rates are 35% higher than deposit rates, against less than 10% in the other BRIC countries.The bankers’ lobby disputes these figures, but nobody thinks that banks’ spreads are thin.巴西政府已将外资入股Banco do Brasil的比例限制提高至两成以吸引更多资本，但国营银行并不像民营银行经营完善，因此期盼的竞争一直未具体化。银行扩张业务最明显的征兆──银行存放款成本之间的价差。游说团体「工业发展研究院」计算，巴西平均放款利率较存款比率高出35%，其它金砖国家则不及10%。虽然银行业者的游说团还在争吵这些数字，但没人相信银行的扩张仍嫌不足。

Among the things that make them fatter are a curious tax on bank funding that increases costs, and high reserve requirements which mean that banks must squeeze more revenue from what they are able to lend.Bad-loan provisions are high too, reflecting the fact that consumer credit is concentrated among people who are already stretched.And a lot of credit is subsidised, which pushes up costs for the rest.其中，银行在筹募资金过程巧立名目增税使放款成本提高让银行业者的油水更多，而高额准备金需求意味银行必须从他们的放款能力赚取更多收入。呆帐金额也水涨船高，反映了消费者融资集中在展延偿债期限者的事实。而且许多融资接受补助，抬高了其它项目的成本。

Brazil’s banks have many things to recommend them;indeed they seem to exemplify what might happen if regulators elsewhere got their every wish.They are safe and their lending is well-capitalised and profitable.Two-thirds of Brazilian deposits are in local banks, which is unusually high for Latin America and a big change from the past, when anyone who had money kept it out of the country and in dollars.The banks also offer some things that would surprise American or European customers.Many ATMs provide a wide range of financial services, from dispensing cash to providing loans.Even so, for now credit is likely to remain too expensive for the country’s good.巴西各银行做了很多事情使他们受到欢迎；假若其它地方的金管官员想要达成每一愿望，他们甚至可以举证未来可能发生的情况。巴西银行很安全且放款资本充足和有盈利。巴西三分之二的存款在地方银行，这对拉美国家而言是非常罕见的偏高，过去有钱人喜欢在国外以美元开户存款，现在已经发生了变化。银行亦提供一些令欧美客户惊讶的服务。很多自动提款机提供各种金融服务，从提领现金到提供借款。虽然如此，目前融资很可能对于巴西利益来说仍然太贵了。

For companies trying to get credit, the problems are much the same.To make up for the absence of a market in long-term debt Brazil created a giant development bank, the BNDES, with a balance-sheet larger than the World Bank’s.This is financed by an impost on labour and lends predominantly to Brazil’s biggest companies—the opposite of what you would expect from a left-leaning country.对于试图取得融资的公司来说，面对的问题几乎大同小异。为了弥补长期负债期间欠缺一个市场，巴西成立巨型开发银行BNDES（国营经社发展银行），资产负债表金额甚至较世界银行还大。BNDES从劳务税取得资金而以巴西最大企业为主要放款对象──可以预期来自左倾国家的反对。

Because its large loans to Brazil’s big names carry so little risk, the BNDES is profitable.It also does some more adventurous lending, although trickier credit assessments are farmed out to private banks, which collect a fee for their pains and also assume the risk of loans going bad.The BNDES was useful to Brazil during the recent crisis as a stable source of funding, but its scale as the lender of choice for Brazil’s best credit risks is probably impeding the development of markets in long-term debt, and the way it is funded seems fundamentally unjust.因为BNDES提供巴西大型企业的大笔贷款承担较少风险，所以BNDES仍是赚钱的。BNDES亦进行一些较具风险性的放款，但较棘手的信用评等则外包给民营银行，民营银行因承担痛苦而收取费用，亦假定贷款的风险会变得更糟。BNDES在最近金融海啸期间作为稳定的资金来源，对于巴西非常受用，但作为巴西最佳融资风险的放款者，BNDES的规模或许妨碍了长期负债期间的市场发展，而且BNDES取得资金的方式似乎基本上有欠公平。

Still, compared with the bank failures, frauds, market manipulation, volatility, disregard for contracts and near-absence of credit of the past, Brazil’s financial sector has come a long way.Foreign investors have noticed, and have recently started pouring money into the country.尽管如此，与银行倒闭、欺诈、市场操控、反复无常，漠视合约及过去的几乎缺乏融资相比较，巴西金融业已经走了很长的路。外资已经注意到了，最近已经开始让热钱涌入巴西。

发表于00:35 | 阅读全文 | 评论 15 | 编辑 | 分享1  奥普拉.温芙蕾：结束脱口秀生涯

2009-12-04

Schumpeter

Brand royalty

Nov 26th 2009 From The Economist print edition

Oprah Winfrey's brand has many years of life left in it yet

Illustration by Brett Ryder

IT WAS one of the most tear-stained moments in the 24-year history of a show that specialises in tear-stained moments.On November 20th Oprah Winfrey announced that she will end her eponymous show in September 2011, 26 years after it first aired nationwide.She loves her show enough to know when it is time to say goodbye, she told her traumatised audience.这是24年的专注于打动人心的节目生涯中最令人热泪盈眶的时刻。11月20号，奥普拉.温芙蕾宣布将于2011年结束她的同名脱口秀节目。该节目已在全国广播了26年。奥普拉告诉极度愕然的听众，她很爱她的节目，因此知道什么时候该说再见。

The sound of ululation could be heard from sea to shining sea.For once the pundits sang the same song as “real Americans”—as one of Ms Winfrey’s recent guests, Sarah Palin, likes to call them.They talked breathlessly about Ms Winfrey’s up-from-the-bootstraps achievements—how she came from nothing to amass a fortune of $2.3 billion and how she has viewers in more than 100 countries—and pronounced her retirement the end of an era.The New York Times’s Gail Collins added that she wished politicians, from the 92-year-old Robert Byrd on down, would follow her example and quit while they are ahead.啜泣声从西海岸传到了东海岸。曾经，权威人士唱着同样的歌“真正的美国人”--如温芙蕾女士的最近一位嘉宾，莎拉.佩林就喜欢这样称呼。他们谈论着温芙蕾女士靠自身奋斗一步一步取得的成就--她是怎样从一无所有到聚集了23亿美元的财富，拥有100多个国家的观众--并宣告她的退役是一个时代的结束。纽约时报的盖尔.科林斯补充说她想从政，从92岁的罗伯特.伯德传下来，将以她为例，激流勇退。

The only problem with all this commentary is that Ms Winfrey is not quitting.She is ending her relationship with a big network, CBS, in order to devote herself to an ambitious new venture, a cable-television channel to be called the Oprah Winfrey Network, or OWN, which she plans to launch in January 2011 as a joint-venture with Discovery Communications.The world is about to be blessed with more Oprah, rather than less.关于这所有评论的唯一一个问题是，温芙蕾女士并不是退役。她正在结束与大网络CBS的合作，是为了让自己致身于抱负远大的新的尝试，被称为奥普莱.温芙蕾网络的有限电视频道，或OWN，这是她计划于2011年公布和“发现探索公司”合资的一览节目。世界即将有更多的奥普拉，而非更少。

This is a tricky transition that raises all sorts of questions about the power of personal brands.Can the star’s brand be separated from the show that has nurtured it for almost a quarter of a century? And can it be used to launch an entire network? Personal brands are easy to damage.Martha Stewart, who was once the nearest equivalent to Ms Winfrey, had started to devalue her brand even before she got into trouble with the law, spreading herself too thin and striking too many deals with retailers.The celebrities who lent their name to Planet Hollywood probably no longer relish being associated with a tacky fast-food chain that has gone bankrupt twice.“The Oprah Winfrey Show” is not just a “delivery channel” that she can close down at will: it has defined its creator for 24 years.By killing off her brand-creating show and diluting her personal contribution across an entire network, she runs the risk of enraging her fans.这是一个微妙的变化，出现各类关于个人品牌力量的问题。明星的品牌能与培养其几乎25年的节目分开吗？它能被用于投放整个网络吗？个人品牌很容易被破坏。玛莎·斯图尔特曾经是几乎与温芙蕾女士等同的人物，但甚至在她惹上法律纠纷之前就已使其品牌贬值了。过分铺张自己的品牌，与众多零售商签订交易，使得其品牌大为贬值。将自己的名字借给好莱坞星球的名人或许不再乐意与破产两次的寒酸的快餐链联系起来。“奥普拉.温芙蕾脱口秀”并不只是随她的意志就能关闭的 “输送频道”：它已塑造其创造者24年了。温芙蕾的离开是冒着激怒自己粉丝的危险，抹灭创造其个人品牌的脱口秀节目以及通过整个网络冲淡自己的个人贡献。

But there are good commercial reasons for Ms Winfrey’s decision.The audience for network television has been declining relentlessly as viewers have migrated to cable and the internet.The audience for “The Oprah Winfrey Show” has shrunk from about 14m viewers in 1998 to about 7m today, though it still remains the highest-rated talk show.Ms Winfrey is simply following her audience into a more fragmented media world.Besides, there is nothing to stop Ms Winfrey reviving “The Oprah Winfrey Show”, or something very like it, on her new platform.但是温芙蕾女士的决定有利好的商业因素。由于观众转向有限电视和网络，网络电视的听众在不断的减少。“奥普拉.温芙蕾脱口秀”节目的听众从1998年的 1400万缩减到如今大约700万，尽管其在脱口秀节目中，收视率仍占据最高。温芙蕾女士简单的跟随她的听众的步伐，进入更加零碎的媒体世界。此外，没有任何东西可以阻止温芙蕾女士复兴“奥普拉.温芙蕾脱口秀”，或在她的新的平台上与其非常相似的东西。

Ms Winfrey also has lots of experience at relaunching herself.She reinvented the daytime talk show not once but twice—first by exposing some of her innermost secrets in public(about how she was raped at the age of nine and experimented with drugs in her 20s, for example)and second by taking her show upmarket.While Jerry Springer and his ilk filled their studios with stump-toothed degenerates, Ms Winfrey introduced her book club and encouraged her viewers to improve themselves.温芙蕾女士也有很多重新推出自己的经验。她重新创新了日间脱口秀不是一次，而是两次--第一次是在公众面前揭露自己的一些内心秘密（例如有关她九岁时怎样被强奸，20多岁时曾吸毒），第二次是谈论她的脱口秀高档。当杰瑞·斯普林格.........................温芙蕾女士引进了读书俱乐部并鼓励她的观众提升自己。

Ms Winfrey is also an experienced brand-stretcher.She has starred in a number of successful films, most notably “The Colour Purple”, for which she was nominated for an Oscar;more importantly, she has launched a succession of Oprah-related products such as her website, Oprah.com and her magazine, O.Each time she succeeded in extending her audience without alienating her most loyal fans: a year after O’s launch in 2000 half its readers were not regular watchers of “The Oprah Winfrey Show”, including many professional women who would never dream of watching television in the afternoon.温芙蕾女士也经历了品牌拓展。她在一系列成功的电影中担任主角，最出名的是“紫色”，并被提名为奥斯卡奖；最重要的是，她发布了一系列与奥普拉有关的产品，诸如她的网页Oprah.com，她的杂志O.每次她都成功扩展了自己的听众，而没疏远自己的最忠实的粉丝：2000年，O杂志发行一年后，其读者不再是“奥普拉.温芙蕾脱口秀”的固定观众，包括很多从没想象到自己会在下午看电视的职业女性。

Life without Oprah没有奥普拉的生活

The biggest challenge with the cable channel will be to see whether Oprah’s brand can survive independently from the star herself.But again she has experience here.She has produced several films that deal with the classic Oprah-themes of suffering and redemption in which she did not actually appear.But the best evidence that she can make successful programmes without starring in them is her success in launching Phil McGraw.She first encountered him after she said on air that fears of mad-cow disease had put her off hamburgers;he helped her handle a lawsuit from a group of enraged Texas cattlemen.She invited him onto her show several times, and then helped him get his own program.“Dr Phil” is now the second most popular talk-show host after Ms Winfrey herself.对有线电视的最大挑战就是看奥普拉品牌是否能不依靠明星自己生存下去。再一次，温芙蕾尝试了有线电视。她创作了几部电影，涉及典型的有关受难和救赎的奥普拉主题，而她本人并没哟出现在电影中。但是最能证明她能不用出任主演就能制作成功节目的是她成功激励了菲尔·麦克格劳博士。温芙蕾是在广播中说害怕疯牛病夺去自己的汉堡遭到愤怒的牛肉场主控诉时，首次遇见了菲尔·麦克格劳博士。他帮她摆平了这起控诉。温芙蕾几次邀请他到脱口秀节目，而后帮他获得了他自己的节目。“Dr Phil”是继温芙蕾女士之后的第二个最有名的脱口秀主持人。

Ms Winfrey has always been a vigilant steward of her brand.Almost from the first she wrested as much control as possible from the suits at CBS—and struck famously savvy deals into the bargain.This entailed not only creating her own company, Harpo, but also her own production studio.She is also notorious for her overbearing perfectionism.Ms Winfrey has steadfastly refused to take her company public, as Ms Stewart did.She has also refused to strike deals with retailers or stick her name on merchandise, as numerous celebrity chefs and athletes have done.温芙蕾女士一向对自己的品牌管理警醒。几乎从一开始，她就要求得到CBS的更多的自由掌控权。这包括不仅是创造了她自己的公司Harpo，而且包括她自己的制作工作室。她也因其傲慢的十全十美主义而臭名昭著。温芙蕾女士坚决拒绝让自己的公司上市，和斯图尔特一样。她也拒绝与零售商达成交易或将自己的名字贴在商品上，就如许多名厨和运动员所做的。

Such vigilance about her brand is hardly a guarantee of success in the volatile and cacophonous media market.Her film version of Toni Morrison’s “Beloved” earned only $23m, less than half what it cost to make.Her earlier tentative venture into the cable market, with Oxygen Media, enjoyed limited success.But Ms Winfrey’s handful of failures are as nothing compared with her successes.Perhaps more than any of her rivals Ms Winfrey understands that it is hard to fail in the media business if you put your faith in people’s appetite for stories of those who pick themselves up from the floor and make something of their lives.她对自己品牌如此的警惕，很难保证在动荡噪杂的媒体市场取得成功。她的托妮·莫里森版本的电影“被爱”仅赚取2300万美元，比其成本的一半还少。她早期尝试与氧气媒体合作进入有线市场，享受着有限的成功。但温芙蕾女士少数的失败与成功相比，是微不足道的。或许温芙蕾女士比她的任何一个竞争对手都明白，如果你将信念对中人们的胃口，讲述这些从地上爬起来的人们和在自己生活中有所得人的故事，就很难在媒体业务中失败。

 Go for the locals 绑架本国人

Nov 26th 2009 | LAGOS From The Economist print edition

A new scourge is afflicting the rich 富豪们面临新的不安

IT COULD not have happened to a more colourful character.Nkem Owoh, a Nollywood film star is famous for a song about financial fraud entitled ―I Go Chop Your Dollar‖.While driving along a highway in eastern Nigeria earlier this month, he was kidnapped.His abductors originally demanded 15m naira($99,000).He was freed a week later for an unknown ransom, though the local press say the gang was beaten down to a mere 1.4m naira plus the actor‘s fancy car.这本不应发生在一个颇有争议的人物身上。Nkem owoh，一个诺莱坞(Nollywood)电影明星，以一首讽刺财务欺诈的歌―去抢你的钱（Go Chop Your Dollar）‖而出名。这个月早些时候，当Nkem owoh驾车行走在尼日利亚东部的一条高速公路上时，他被绑架。绑架者最初提出15万奈拉（99,000美元）的赎金要求。一周以后他被释放，赎金不为外人所知。但据当地媒体报道，他付出的赎金仅为14万奈拉，外加他的那辆名贵小汽车。

The abduction sounds like a far-fetched script from one of Nigeria‘s popular outlandish films.But kidnapping is a serious business.Nabbing prominent Nigerians is becoming increasingly common, as gangs shift their focus from foreign oil workers to their own rich compatriots.这起绑架案听起来好象是尼日利亚充满异国风味的电影里面的一个蹩脚片段。但是绑架一个严重的社会问题。当犯罪团伙转移绑架重点，从绑架外国石油工人转移到绑架他们国内那些富豪时，尼日利亚的社会名流正日益成为他们的绑架对象。

An American security firm ranks Nigeria in the world‘s top eight kidnapping hotspots, alongside such violent places as Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia.According to the State Department, more than 50 foreigners were kidnapped between January 2008 and July this year, most of them in the Delta region, home to Nigeria‘s oil industry.Attacks on foreigners were even more frequent in 2007.Insurgents sought ransoms to draw attention to political grievances and to make cash.一家美国保安公司将尼日利亚归类到世界上八个最易发生绑架的热点地区中，这些充满暴力的地方还包括：阿富汗、伊拉克和索马里。据尼日利亚行政部称，在2008年1月和今年7月之间，共有超过50名外国人被绑架，大多发生在尼日利亚的盛产石油的尼日尔三角洲地区。这些暴徒通过敲诈勒索，表达对国内政治的不满，索取钱物。

But, as foreign oil giants such as Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil have tightened security and shifted professional staff out of the Delta, attackers have started looking for softer targets.Nigeria‘s authorities are most worried by the spread of kidnapping beyond the Delta.但是当外国石油巨头，如皇家荷兰壳牌公司和埃克森美孚公司加强了保安措施，将专业人员迁移出尼日尔三角洲地区后，绑架者们开始搜寻更容易对付的目标。而尼日利亚当权者们最担心绑架案蔓延到这一地区以外。

The father of Chukwuma Soludo, a former central-bank chief, was seized at the end of October in Anambra state, where his son hopes to become governor.Simeon Soludo, in his late 70s, was freed some days later.His family denies that it paid the kidnappers a ransom.A senior official in the predominantly Muslim north was also recently abducted.Yakubu Lame, Nigeria‘s minister of police affairs, said in July that 512 kidnappings had been reported in the first half of this year, against 353 for the whole of 2008.Chukwuma Soludo的父亲simeon soludo是前任中央银行总裁，十月底在阿南布拉（Anambra）州被绑架，Chukwuma Soludo有望成为该州州长。过了一些天后，快80岁的simeon soludo被释放 , 他的家人否认给绑架者支付过赎金。还有一个政府高官员最近在以伊斯兰教徒为主要人口的北部地区，遭遇绑架。尼日利亚警察部长Yakubu Lame在今年7月份时说，今年前半年，上报到警察部的绑架案有512件，而2008年全年这一数字为353件。

Not so bad if you’re white 如果是外国人，则没那么糟

At the same time, the rate of abducting foreigners is going down.Staff who remain in the Delta, rather than in smart new offices in Lagos, the commercial capital, travel in convoys and stew in guarded compounds after dark.A recent fragile peace deal in the oil-producing states, following an amnesty for rebels this summer, has also reduced the abduction rate.Of the 35 Britons known to have been snatched in the Delta since 2006, only four were taken this year, says the British government.同时，发生在外国人身上的绑架案正在下降。那些还呆在尼日尔三角洲地区——而不是在拉各斯（尼日利亚的商业中心）整洁舒服的办公室里－－的工作人员，可以在保安人员陪同下到四处走走，天黑后还可以在有保安的院子里准备晚餐。针对外国人绑架案减少的另一个原因是，今年夏天尼日利亚政府特赦了一些被关押的叛乱分子，由此换来刚刚达成的一项脆弱的和平协议。英国政府称，自2006年至今，共有35人在尼日尔三角洲地区被劫走，其中发生在今年的只有四起。

Western embassies and security firms in Nigeria agree that the shift towards local victims takes the heat off them a bit.Locals are not only easier targets but also give criminals the chance to demand ransoms from emotional families rather than from an oil company‘s hard-headed anti-kidnapping team or insurance firm.在尼日利亚的西方各国使馆和保安公司一致认为，转向针对当地人的绑架案略微减轻了他们的工作压力。绑架本国人不仅易于得逞，也给了犯罪分子从情绪慌乱的家庭－－而不是从石油公司精明且讲究实效的反绑架机构或保险公司－－索取赎金的机会。

Nigeria‘s government has responded to the surge with an anti-kidnapping bill, which, if passed, would mean life sentences for abductors and their accomplices.This year, to the dismay of Amnesty International, six of the country‘s 36 states have adopted the death penalty for the crime.More are considering it.针对猖獗的绑架案，尼日利亚政府提出了一项反绑架法案，如果获得通过，绑架者和同谋者将被判无期徒刑。今年，针对绑架犯罪，尼日利亚36个州的6个州采用了死刑，这令特赦国际（Amnesty International）大为沮丧。而还有更多的州正考虑采用。

However, it is by no means certain that tougher penalties will stem the tide.Despite the huge oil and gas reserves of Africa‘s second-biggest economy, many Nigerians have no work, are on a daily hunt for cash, and are pumped up by the idea of instant wealth acquired by snatching a film star from his car.然而，更加严厉的刑罚并不意味着一定能遏制绑架浪潮。尽管尼日利亚油气储量丰富，是非洲第二大经济体，但有许多尼日利亚人没有工作，他们四处找钱，幻想着通过从小汽车中绑架电影明星而一夜暴富。

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A heated debate 激辩

Nov 26th 2009 From The Economist print edition

Why political orthodoxy must not silence scientific argument 为何有了政治说法，还应有科学的辩论？

Illustration by Claudio Munoz

―WHAT is truth?‖ That was Pontius Pilate‘s answer to Jesus‘s assertion that ―Everyone that is of the truth heareth my voice.‖ It sounds suspiciously like the modern argument over climate change.―真理是什么？‖耶稣说完―相信真理的人都能听到我‖之后，彼拉多随即如此问道。听起来耳熟？在当代，气候变化引起的争辩就与此有相似之处。

A majority of the world‘s climate scientists have convinced themselves, and also a lot of laymen, some of whom have political power, that the Earth‘s climate is changing;that the change, from humanity‘s point of view, is for the worse;and that the cause is human activity, in the form of excessive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.国际上，大多数气候科学家不但说服了自己，也说服了很多门外汉（其中包括一些有政治影响力的人）--地球的气候正在改变；这种改变，从人道主义角度来看，是消极的；这种改变的始作俑者是人类，是他们通过排放超量的诸如二氧化碳的温室气体而造成的。

A minority, though, are sceptical.Some think that recent, well-grounded data suggesting the Earth‘s average temperature is rising are explained by natural variations in solar radiation, and that this trend may be coming to an end.Others argue that longer-term evidence that modern temperatures are higher than they have been for hundreds or thousands of years is actually too flaky to be meaningful.少数人对此表示怀疑。有些人提出，最近有充分的数据表明地球平均气温上升是由于太阳辐射的自然变化，而这种变化已接近尾声。其他人也认为长期的证据显示现在的气温高于过去几百年甚至几千年的说法是站不住脚的。

Such disagreements are commonplace in science.They are eventually settled by the collection of more data and the invention of more refined(or entirely new)theories.Arguments may persist for decades;academics may—and often do—sling insults at each other;but it does not matter a great deal because the stakes are normally rather low.对于科学家们来说，这样的争论司空见惯。只要有更多的数据和更完整的（或全新的）理论，他们最终便会折服。争论可能会持续数十年；学者们可能，实际上经常起唇舌之争，出言伤人，但因为赌注通常不大，因此也无伤大雅。

The stakes in the global-warming debate, however, could scarcely be higher.Scientific evidence /that climate change is under way, is man-made, and is likely to continue happening/ forms the foundation for an edifice of policy which is intended to transform the world‘s carbon-intensive economy into one which no longer spews greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.A lot of money, and many reputations—both academic and political—are involved.然而在全球气候变暖这边的争辩，赌注却高得多。科学证据声称气候变化正在进行中，是人类之过，还很可能持续下去。于是各国政府纷纷出台了一摞的政策，试图把目前以碳为主导的经济发展模式转向清洁的发展模式。在这过程中，无论是学者还是政客，一掷千金甚至连名誉也搭上的大有人在。

Sceptics claim that this burden of responsibility is crushing the spirit of scientific inquiry.Scientists, they maintain, are under pressure to bolster the majority view.The recent publication of embarrassing e-mails from the University of East Anglia, an important centre of climate science(see article), revealing doubts about data and a determination not to air such concerns publicly, has strengthened these suspicions.怀疑者们认为，沉重的责任正在碾碎科学探究精神。他们还坚持认为科学家们为了支持多数人的观点而饱受压力的煎熬。最近曝光的一封来自东安吉利大学这所著名气候科学研究中心的电子邮件让人局促不安。邮件的曝光揭示的对数据的疑问和不公开这些忧虑的决心，更印证了以上的怀疑。

There is no doubt that politics and science make uncomfortable bedfellows.Politicians sell certainty.Science lives off doubt.The creation /of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to establish a consensus on the science /was an excellent idea for policymakers, who needed a strong scientific foundation for their deliberations, but it sits uncomfortably with a discipline that advances by disproving accepted theories and overturning orthodoxies.毫无疑问，政治和科学夫唱妇随并不是一件好事。政客们要确凿的事实，而科学家们则以怀疑为乐。对决策者来说，要得出深思熟虑的结果就需要无懈可击的科学性，所以成立国际气候变化小组以达成科学的共识是英明之举。但要前进就必须反对公认的理论和推翻正统的说法。如此规则让这个小组坐立难安。

The danger of dissent 反对的危险

Some would argue that, in matters of great public import, scientific dissent should be silenced.It can, it is true, do harm.When AIDS first reared its ugly head, no one knew what caused it.Gradually, the virus responsible was isolated, identified and then attacked successfully with drugs designed specifically to inhibit its reproduction.A few scientists, though, refused to accept the evidence, and some politicians used their arguments to justify inaction.Since one of those politicians was Thabo Mbeki, then president of South Africa, hundreds of thousands who might have been saved by an anti-AIDS policy grounded in scientific reality died as a result of his policies.有些人反驳道，在关乎公共利益的事物面前，持异议的科学家们应该保持缄默。事实上，这是有百害而无一利的。在艾滋病肆虐伊始，没有人知道原因。然后带病毒者被隔离了，确认染病后又服用专门的药物成功抑制病毒蔓延。只是有部分科学家拒绝接受证据，于是某些政治家就顺水推舟以此为借口不采取任何行动。由于其中一个政客是前南非总统塔博姆贝基，数十万个本来可以通过科学的抗艾滋病政策保住性命的患者死在了他的政策之下。

Yet the damage in that case was done by the politicians.A leader who is determined to pursue a wrong-headed course will always find some scientist to support him.A world in which that were not true would be one in which a dangerously narrow consensus had taken hold.但是这种情况要为损失负责人的应该是政客。一个决意要步向歧途的领导者总是不乏支持他的科学家。要是有那么一个世界不是如此，那么在这个世界里肯定存在着一种狭隘得近乎危险的共识。

This newspaper believes that global warming is a serious threat, and that the world needs to take steps to try to avert it.That is the job of the politicians.But we do not believe that climate change is a certainty.There are no certainties in science.Prevailing theories must be constantly tested against evidence, and refined, and more evidence collected, and the theories tested again.That is the job of the scientists.When they stop questioning orthodoxy, mankind will have given up the search for truth.The sceptics should not be silenced.本刊深信，全球气候变暖是一个严峻的威胁，全人类都需要采取行动改变这种状况--这是政客的职责。但是我们并不认为气候变化已成定局。在科学的世界里面没有肯定。流行的理论必须反复经过验证，修正再验证再修正才能下定论—这是科学家的工作。到他们不再怀疑正统说法之日，便是人类放弃追求真理之时。怀疑的声音是不应该被抹杀的。

Bleak Friday 阴暗星期五

Nov 26th 2009 | NEW YORK From The Economist print edition

Bricks-and-mortar shops struggle to win customers back from virtual ones 实体商场从网络商家手中极力挽回消费者

SHOPPERS on Black Friday, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season in America, which falls on November 27th this year, are notoriously aggressive.Some even start queuing outside stores before dawn to be the first to lay their hands on heavily discounted merchandise.Last year berserk bargain-hunters in the suburbs of New York City trampled a Wal-Mart employee to death.Despite the frenzy at many stores, however, the recession appears to have accelerated the pace at which shoppers are abandoning bricks and mortar in favour of online retailers—e-tailers, in the jargon.So this year Black Friday(so named because it is supposed to put shops into profit for the year)also marks the start of many conventional retailers‘ attempts to regain the initiative.黑色星期五通常是美国假日消费季节的开端，今年的黑色星期五恰逢11月27日，场面热闹非凡。有些人甚至天没亮就在商店门外排队希望可以第一个抢到―大跳水‖的商品。去年，纽约市郊沃尔玛超市的一名员工因为顾客疯抢打折商品而被踩伤致死。然而，商场销售虽然火爆，但商场萧条之势却越演越烈，因为消费者正在弃实体商场转而投入在线零售商---行话叫电子零售商的怀抱。所以今年的黑色星期五（这样命名源于这一天应该是令商店该年盈利的日子）也标志着传统实体零售商收回失地的第一炮。

E-commerce holds particular appeal in straitened times as it enables people to compare prices across retailers quickly and easily.Buyers can sometimes avoid local sales taxes online, and shipping is often free.No wonder, then, that online shopping continues to grow even as the offline sort shrinks.In 2008 retail sales grew by a feeble 1% in America and are expected to decline by more than 3% this year, according to the National Retail Federation, a trade body.In contrast, online sales grew by 13% in 2008 to over $141 billion and are predicted to grow by 11% in 2009, according to Forrester, a consultancy.在经济大环境恶化的背景下，电子商务具有独特的优势：消费者可以轻松快捷的货比三家。有时在网上购物可以避开当地营业税，而且通常免邮费。这就难怪网络销售可以在即使实体店销售萎缩的情况下仍然保持增长。2008实体商场零售额增长了可怜的1%,而且预计今年的销售量将下滑三个百分点，全美零售商联合会（贸易组织）如是说。而与之形成鲜明对比的是网络销售。根据顾问公司福斯特的报告，网络销售量于2008年增长了13%，达到1410亿美元，预计今年将增长11%。

Online sales now account for 6% of all retail sales in America(up from 5% in 2008)and that figure is expected to reach 8% by 2013.E-commerce is also growing in Europe and Asia, where online sales in 2008 totalled $60 billion and $40 billion, respectively.In Britain, internet shopping now accounts for nearly 4% of total retail sales, according to Planet Retail, a research firm.网络销售目前占全美销售量的6%（2008年为5%），预计到2013年之前这一数字将达到8%。电子商务在欧洲和亚洲也方兴未艾，两洲2008年的网络销售额分别为600亿美元和400亿美元。目前英国的网络销售量占销售总额的4%左右，这一数字引自调研公司行星零售。

Online-only shopping sites such as Amazon and eBay, two e-commerce giants, have thrived in the downturn.Amazon‘s sales rose to around $5.5 billion in the third quarter of the year, up by almost 30% from a year before.Listings, chiefly from commercial vendors, have surged so rapidly on eBay that its website briefly crashed on November 21st.诸如亚马逊和eBAY（网络销售巨头）等不设实体店铺的在线消费网站在经济危机之下茁壮成长。亚马逊今年三季度的销售量达到约55亿美金，与去年相比，增长了30%.eBay亦是如此。订单（以供应商的为主）数激增，导致eBay网站于11月21日暂时瘫痪。

The range of items available online is also growing.Amazon has started selling groceries.Consumer-goods companies such as Procter & Gamble(P&G)are encouraging the sale of things like nappies(diapers)and laundry detergent online.At the opposite extreme, the internet is also being used to sell luxury goods.Fabergé, a defunctjewellery-maker known for its gem-encrusted eggs, relaunched in September.It will not open any shops but will instead operate only online.网络销售的产品种类亦在扩大。亚马逊已经开始在网上销售杂货。保洁等消费品公司也正在网上促销像尿片和洗衣粉等小商品。与这些小商品完全相反的奢侈品也被搬到了网上销售。已经销声匿迹的珠宝制造商Fabergé（以镶嵌宝石的蛋而闻名）于九月重新开业。该公司摒弃实体店只在网络销售产品。

The shift in spending to the internet is good news for companies like P&G that lack retail outlets of their own.But it is a big concern for brick-and-mortar retailers, whose prices are often higher than those of e-tailers, since they must bear the extra expense of running stores.Happily, however, conventional retailers are in a better positionto fight back than last year, when overstocking forced them to resort to ruinous discounting.Inventories are about 15% lower this year.Some big retailers, such as Saks and Target, have recently reported rising revenues and margins.消费者转向网络消费对保洁这种没有自己专营店的公司来说是利好消息。而对于实体零售商来说却是棘手问题。因为实体零售商存在经营成本，其零售价格通常高于网上价格。然而，利好的一面是今年传统的零售商能够扳回一城的几率较去年高。去年库存过多，传统零售商被迫亏本打折，而今年的库存量下降了大约15%。诸如Saks和Target等的一些大型零售商已于最近传来营业额增加，利润率上升的好消息。

The most obvious response to the growth of e-tailing is for conventional retailers to redouble their own efforts online.The online arms of big retailers are performing well, on the whole.Saks, for example, saw online sales rise 9% in the nine months to the end of October while sales in its stores fell by 19%.The company expects online growth to outpace sales in stores for the ―foreseeable future‖, says Stephen Sadove, its boss.传统零售商应对网络销售最直接的应对措施是进一步加强网络销售力度。总的来说，大型零售商的网络销售部门表现抢眼。以Saks为例。该公司一月至十月的网络销售额增长了9%，而实体店销售则下滑19%。Saks希望在―可预见的未来‖网络销售增长超过实体商场，Saks总裁Stephen Sadove如是说。

The concept of ―multichannel‖ shopping, where people can buy the same items from the same retailer in several different ways—online, via their mobile phones and in shops—is gaining ground, and retailers are trying to encourage users of one channel to try another.Growing online traffic may actually increase sales in stores too.According to a spokesman for Macy‘s, a department-store chain, every dollar a consumer spends online with Macy‘s leads to $5.70 in spending at a Macy‘s store within ten days, because consumers learn about other products online and come into stores to look them over before buying them.Many online retailers offer tools that let people locate the nearest outlet that has a given item in stock.―多渠道‖销售的概念是指顾客可以通过网络、手机、亲临实体店等不同方式从同一个零售商手中买到同样的产品。这种概念正在为人们所接受。零售商也在鼓励单一渠道的消费者尝试其他的购买途径。网上交易量增长也可能促进实体店的销量上升。梅西百货公司（百货连锁公司）的发言人表示：顾客在梅西网站每花一美元，十天之内该顾客会在梅西百货商店消费5.7美元，因为顾客在网站上看到其他商品的信息，他们会亲临商场仔细检查在网上看到的商品，然后再购买。很多网络商家还提供专门服务，帮助顾客找到离他们最近的、出售他们中意产品的专营店。

Retailers are also trying to make shopping seem fun and exciting to counteract the economic gloom.One common tactic is to set up ―pop-up‖ stores, which appear for a short time before vanishing again, to foster a sense of novelty and urgency.Following the lead of many bricks-and-mortar outfits, eBay recently launched a pop-up in New York where customers could inspect items before ordering them from kiosks.商家也在绞尽脑汁增加购物的乐趣和刺激感以应对经济颓势。最常见的策略是开设―弹出式‖店铺，这种店铺仅短时间存在，之后便再次消失，给顾客以新鲜感和紧迫感（要赶紧购买，否则便消失不见了）。eBay也加入实体店引领的风潮，于最近在纽约开设了一家弹出式商铺。顾客可以在这个商铺里仔细检查商品品质，然后在网上订购。

Shoppers are increasingly looking for an ―experience‖ when they go to stores, says Jack Anderson of Hornall Anderson, a branding and marketing firm, and are no longer interested in purely ―transaction-based bricks and mortar stores‖.Apple, which encourages customers to try out its devices in its stores, is considered a pioneer of this strategy, and has attracted many imitators.The Walt Disney Company, for example, is rumoured to be redesigning its stores to attract shoppers looking for entertainment, with new features such as ―magic mirrors‖, which will allow children to play with Disney characters.消费者越来越倾向于―体验式‖购物，―纯交易性实体商店‖已经无法打动顾客的心了，品牌与营销公司Hornall Anderson的 Jack Anderson如是说。苹果公司在―体验式‖购物方面是先锋，顾客可以在苹果店试用产品，引来许多商家跟风。迪斯尼公司便是其中之一。据传，该公司正在重新设计店铺吸引喜欢娱乐的顾客。店铺增加了诸如―魔镜‖等特色项目，孩子们还可以和迪斯尼卡通人物一起玩耍。

Stores are also trying to lure customers by offering services that are not available online.Best Buy, a consumer-electronics retailer, has started selling music lessons along with its musical instruments.Lululemon athletica, which sells sports clothes, offers free yoga classes.The idea is to bring people back to its shops regularly, increasing the likelihood that they will develop the habit of shopping there.实体商店也在竭尽全力吸引顾客，为他们提供网上购物无法实现的服务。消费类电子零售商百思买已经开始通过绑定音乐教学课来销售乐器。体育服装公司 Lululemon athletica开设免费瑜伽课（带动产品销量）。这种做法能够把顾客定期拉回到商店，进而增加了顾客在商店购物的可能性。

Another great hope is that mobile phones will come to the rescue of conventional retailers.Some consumers already use internet-enabled handsets to shop online.But many analysts think a technology called near-field communication(NFC)might boost sales at stores, by allowing shoppers to scan products with their phones to learn more about them, and then to pay by swiping their phones at the till.Unfortunately, NFC will not be widely available for some time—too late to help harried retailers through Black Friday.另一个被寄予厚望拯救传统零售商的是手机。有些顾客已经使用具有上网功能的手机在网上购物。但是分析人士认为能够提振商店销量的或许是近距离通信技术（NFC），利用这项技术，消费者可以通过手机了解产品信息，然后再通过手机付款。问题在于，NFC广泛应用尚待时日，帮助腹背受敌的商家实现黑色星期五盈利还无从谈起。

 [2009.07.02] Knocking down the wall 打破成规 Japanese banking liberalisation 日本银行业的自由化

Knocking down the wall 打破成规

Jul 2nd 2009 | TOKYO From The Economist print edition

Japan eases the rules for banks and their securities affiliates 日本放宽对银行及其证券业务分行的监管

REGULATORS around the world are contemplating higher walls between commercial banks and their investment-banking divisions.In Japan the opposite is happening.Last month the country‘s Financial Services Agency(FSA)dramatically eased the regulations on how banks may interact with their securities arms, with sweeping implications for Japan‘s financial markets.就在全世界的监管者都努力在为商业银行及其投资银行分部之间高筑围墙的时候，日本却正在反其道而行之。上个月，日本金融服务厅（FSA）引人注目的放宽了对商业银行如何同其证券业务分行进行合作的监管，这对日本金融市场是一种暗示。

The old system laid huge burdens on financial groups.It prevented bankers from suggesting services that were provided by the same firm but housed in a different unit.Foreign banks, lacking the same holding-company structures as domestic rivals, were the worst hit.Until recently, grouses an employee of a big bank, its Japanese unit generated more paperwork than the rest of its operations across Asia combined.Domestic firms also suffered.And a system designed to minimise risk increased it, says an executive.―If the country manager asks the head of the securities unit, ‗How‘s business?‘, he can‘t say because he is in a different legal entity.‖

旧的制度让财团们承受着巨大的负担。它限制银行家提供建议服务，这些服务其实是由同一家公司提供的，但是却分属不同的部门。外资银行由于缺少和其国内竞争者相同的控股公司的架构，更是遭受到严重打击。直到最近，一家大型银行的员工的抱怨这家银行在日本的分行所产生的书面文件比其在亚洲其他国家的业务部门加起来还多。国内公司也同样深受其害。一项本来用于降低风险的制度却恰恰相反增加了风险，一位员工说道：―如果银行的区域总经理问证券部门的领导业务怎么样？他根本没有办法回答，因为证券部门属于另外一个法人实体。‖

The new rules simplify things.The reform allows employees to work across different units.So support staff can perform tasks for both the banking and securities units, which should increase efficiency, lower costs and improve risk management.It also lets employees cross-sell products, provided that a robust system exists to prevent conflicts of interest.Previously, corporate customers had to opt in to enable the banking group to share client information.Now they must opt out.新的制度让事情简单了。改革后的制度允许银行员工在各部门之间交叉工作。这样员工可以同时完成银行部门和证券部门的业务，从而提高效率，降低成本，以及提高风险管理水平。新的制度还允许员工交叉销售金融产品，并且通过有力的制度来预防利益冲突。以前，为了让银行间共享客户信息，企业客户必须参与进来，而现在，他们则必须退出。

The new responsibility placed on companies to monitor themselves partly explains harsh sanctions that have been handed down by the FSA recently.Hapless Citigroup‘s bad run continues: it has been barred from promoting its retail bank in Japan for a month, starting in mid-July, because of inadequate controls on money-laundering.And Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, a huge local bank, was slapped with sanctions for failing to prevent data theft by a fired employee.新的制度让企业必须肩负起自己监督自己的责任，这也部分解释了为什么FSA最近频频宣布严厉的制裁决定。花旗集团的霉运还在继续：由于对洗钱活动控制不力，从七月中旬起，花旗集团将被勒令暂停在日本推销其零售银行产品一个月。另一家日本本土银行业巨头，三菱UFJ金融集团，也因为其前员工窃取并出售客户信息而受到制裁。

The reform is intended to unleash more sophisticated financial products in Japan.Regional lenders and the country‘s three ―megabanks‖ exert enormous power over companies.Firms tend to rely on bank loans rather than the capital markets for their financing even though the level has decreased since the 1990s banking crisis(see chart).Japanese firms are three times more reliant on bank lending than American firms are.Relationships that span decades are hard to unwind but even the banks recognise that the capital markets need to develop.这项改革的目的旨在在日本推广更加完善的金融产品。民间放款人和日本银行―三巨头‖都正在尽最大努力做企业的工作。相对于从资本市场融资，企业更加信赖通过银行贷款来融资。尽管从上个世纪90年代的银行危机以来，这中信赖程度已经降低了不少，日本企业对银行借款的依赖程度仍然是美国企业的三倍。（参见图表）银行已经认识到资本市场同样需要发展，但是这种持续了数十年的想法，的确很难改变。

The new rules also let the megabanks compete a bit more easily in the securities business, which is dominated in Japan by Nomura.It handled about half of all financing deals in Japan last fiscal year, and 95% of the deals so far this year.New rivalry at home partly explains Nomura‘s interest in looking abroad for growth by acquiring the European and Asian investment-banking arms of Lehman Brothers last autumn.Could Japan yet end up a flag-carrier for liberalisation?

新的制度还能够让银行巨头们在证券市场中的竞争能够轻松一些。日本国内的证券市场被野村证券（Nomura）控制着，它处理了上一财年日本国内大约一半的金融交易，以及本财年迄今为止95%的交易。由于目前日本国内新的竞争形势，野村证券已经把目光投向海外，通过去年秋天并购莱曼兄弟在欧洲和亚洲的投行业务来寻求新的增长。日本能够结束这场银行业的自由化进程吗？

Rags to riches 杂志致富

Jun 18th 2009 | NEW YORK From The Economist print edition

One corner of the print-news industry is relatively healthy 新闻印刷业的一隅相对繁荣

FOR seven of the past eight weeks the front cover of Us Weekly magazine has featured salacious stories about Jon and Kate Gosselin.The Gosselins, who have eight children including sextuplets, are the stars of an obscure American reality-TV programme that briefly became the most watched show on cable.Sensing a surge of interest, other celebrity magazines have piled in with reports of marital disharmony.Even in a recession, tittle-tattle sells.过去的八周有七周,《美国周刊》封面以Jon和Kate Gosselin的粗俗故事为特色。Gosselin一家，有包括6胞胎在内的8个孩子，成了美国现实-TV节目的明星，节目短时间也在有线电视上备受瞩目。其他名人杂志发觉公众兴趣激增，便在杂志中插入关于不和谐婚姻的报道。即使经济衰退，八卦还是有的卖。

Buoyed by recession-resistant food, pharmaceutical and shampoo advertisements, gossip magazines have lost fewer advertising pages in the past year than business or news magazines, according to a tally by Mediaweek.The two biggest, People and Us Weekly, each sold more copies last year than they did in 2001.In a world of fragmenting audiences they boast an enormous reach.Fully 43m Americans, about two-thirds of them women, flick through a copy of People each week.据《媒体周刊》统计，过去一年里，由抵制衰退的食粮——药品和香波广告维持着，比起商业或新闻杂志，八卦杂志失去的广告页较少。两家最大的杂志《人物》和《美国周刊》，每家去年比2001年卖出了更多的杂志。拥有大量分散读者，他们占据了极大的范围。足有四千三百万美国人，妇女大约占三分之二，每周浏览一份《人物》杂志。

This is odd, because the forces blamed for the decline of print news are no less potent in the celebrity sector.Celebrity news has its own online aggregators, several of them linked to web portals, such as omg!, the gossip arm of Yahoo!.The self-publicising Perez Hilton leads a legion of bloggers.Tweets, mobile-phone alerts and gossipy television shows(there are five, up from three in 2000)provide much more timely information about the lives of the beautiful than do magazines.There is more direct competition, too, with three big glossy magazines having launched since 2002.这很奇怪，因为谴责新闻印刷业衰退的力量在名人部分依旧有力。人物新闻有自己的网络聚合器，有几个聚合器链接到了网络门户，像是对象管理集团（omg!）和雅虎（Yahoo!）的八卦部。自我宣传的Perez Hilton带领了一大队博客。Tweets，手机提醒和八卦电视节目（2000年有3个，现在升至5个）提供名人生活信息比杂志更加及时。2002年开办的3家精品杂志，也是个更为直接的竞争。

It may be that the new entrants have simply mopped up excess interest in the doings of Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan.Larry Hackett, the editor of People, reckons that the public appetite for entertainment news was underserved until recently.Far from harming the established publications, the multimedia gossip barrage may be driving readers to check scurrilous rumours with them.也许新加入者挖一下Paris Hilton和Lindsay Lohan的故事就轻而易举满足公众额外的兴趣。《人物》编辑Larry Hackett认为，公众对娱乐新闻的需求至今未得到满足。多媒体八卦的攻势非但不会波及现有杂志，也许会驱使读者和他们一起核查粗俗的谣言。

The field is probably too crowded.None of the three new publications—In Touch, Life & Style and OK!—sold more than a million copies a week on average last year.The turbulent economy has shaken lucrative news-stand sales in particular.As the weaker publications struggle, though, the strongest ones are expanding boldly into new platforms and products.People has launched an iPhone application and its website receives 13m unique visitors per month, according to comScore, a research firm.Its empire includes a fashion portal, a Spanish-language magazine, a country issue, puzzle books and a pets website, all written in the same reassuring style.这个行业或许太过密集。去年3家新杂志《接触》、《生活&方式》和《OK!》，平均每周没有一家能卖出一百万份。尤其是动荡的经济动摇了有利可图的报摊销售。愈加衰弱的杂志还在挣扎，而顶强大的却在大胆开拓新平台和新产品。据调查公司comScore，《人物》已着手一份iPhone申请，其网站每月接待一千三百万独立访客。《人物》帝国包括一个时尚门户网站、一份西语杂志、一个国家问题、几本智力测验书和一个宠物网站，所有的编辑风格都是统一的并且有所保证。

However far-flung their operations, celebrity publishers know they must drive traffic to the weekly magazine, where the real money is still to be made.The best websites offer titbits, updates and quotes.When it comes to longer articles and scoops, though, online readers are firmly steered to the news-stand with notes that begin, ―To find out more…‖.Janice Min, the editor-in-chief of Us Weekly, reckons the content of her magazine and its associated website overlap by no more than 15%.―Why would you post your entire cover story online?‖ she asks.不论名人杂志出版商的经营多么广泛，他们知道必须驱使人们买周刊才能真正赚到钱。最棒的网站提供花絮趣闻、更新材料和援引。然而一看到较长的文章和独家报道，在线读者会坚定地奔向标有―欲知详情……‖的报摊。《美国周刊》总编辑Janice Min估计，其杂志与相关网站重复的内容不足15%。她问：―为什么要把全部封面专题放到网上呢？‖

 The trail of disaster 灾难的身影

Jun 18th 2009 From The Economist print edition

The downturn is claiming victims that never appear on a balance sheet 萧条引致的受害者是那些从来不会被显示在资产负债表上的人群

A long walk from the boardroom 理论到现实的道路还很漫长

NINE months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the world‘s economic crisis is still usually discussed as though it consisted of dire bank balance-sheets, falling exports and bankruptcies or job losses in the West.But at the other end of the trail that starts with financial woes in rich countries are underweight children and anaemic expectant mothers in poor ones.New research by the United Nations‘ standing committee on nutrition(available on www.xiexiebang.com)gives a first estimate of how the crisis has hurt the group of people most affected by the crash: the very poorest.在雷曼兄弟破产9个月后，世界经济危机还往往是被描述成包括了恐怖的银行资产负债表，出口的下滑，银行破产以及西方的失业。但是在这场从发达国家的财务困境开始的危机追溯中，位于其另一端的情况是穷国中体重日渐下降的儿童和患贫血症的准妈妈们。联合国营养常设委员会的最新研究针对金融危机给那些遭受重创的人群 — 最贫穷的人群 — 造了多大的伤害给出了一个初步的估算。

In 1990-2007, the number of hungry people rose by about 80m, though this was, by and large, a period of rising incomes in developing countries(and a huge increase in population).In 2008 alone, the number rose a further 40m, to 963m—half as much in one year as during the previous 17.In other words, lots more children and pregnant women are not getting the food they need.The report reckons that the number of underweight children will rise from 121m to 125m by 2010, assuming no change in the size of the world economy(in fact, it is expected to shrink 2% this year).The World Bank has already estimated that until 2015 the crisis will lead to between 200,000 and 400,000 more children dying every year.在1990 – 2007年期间，挨饿人口增加了大约8千万，尽管这是发展中国家收入一直在上涨的一个时期。仅仅是2008年这一年里，这个数字就又增加了4千万，达到了 9.63亿，一年的数据基本是过去17年里总数的一半。换句话说，更多的儿童和孕妇没有得到他们需要的食品。报告认为，如果世界经济规模不变的话，到 2010年体重下降的儿童数量会从1.21亿增加到1.25亿，（事实上，预计今年的世界经济总量会萎缩2%）。世界银行已经估计到2015年危机会导致每年有20万到40万的儿童死亡。

The poorest face two crises: the world recession and the resumption of food-price rises.Food prices had been falling but even then, the global price fall did not translate into a comparable decline on local markets in most poor countries, so the poor did not benefit much.World prices bottomed out in December 2008 and have since risen 26%.In the poorest countries, a rise of 50% in the price of staples pushes up the family food budget from 50% to 60% of household income.最平穷的人面临的是双重困境：世界范围的萧条以及食品价格的新一轮上涨。食品价格过去一直在下降，但是即使是在全球范围内食品价格下降期，在大多数贫穷国家里本国市场上的价格并没有相应的下降，所以穷人并没有从降价中获得什么好处。世界食品价格在2008年12月走出低谷，在此之后上涨了26%。在最贫穷的国家里，主食价格上涨50%会推动家庭的食物预算占到家庭收入的50%所以在一些贫穷国家里，要养活一个五口之家需要额外多工作10个小时或是更长的时间。

The resulting burden falls heavily on women.As the report says starkly: ―Women are usually the last to benefit from increasing income [but] they are usually the first to make sacrifices when the financial situation deteriorates.‖

随之而来的负担更多的压在了妇女肩上。就像联合国营养常设委员会的报告很明确指出的那样：―妇女往往是收入上涨最后的受益人但却往往是经济环境恶化时首先要做出牺牲的人。

No exit 没有退路

Jun 11th 2009 From The Economist print edition

Staying in the euro will be tough for some members, but leaving would be too awful to contemplate 对一些成员国来说，呆在欧元区的日子不好过，但是考虑离开欧元区更可怕

Illustration by M.Morgenstern

IN THE weeks following the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September the number of euro banknotes in circulation suddenly increased.Fears about the rickety state of banks had made many people mistrustful of keeping money on deposit.Far safer to keep cash stuffed under a mattress.The more discriminating hoarders, it was said, were careful to squirrel away banknotes with serial numbers prefixed by the letter “X”, indicating currency issued in Germany.Notes with “U”(French)or “P”(Dutch)prefix were also fine, but those with a “Y” or an “S”, issued by Greece and Italy, were shunned.去年9月自雷曼兄弟破产后的数周内流通中的欧元钞票数量骤增。摇摇欲坠的银行系统令人担忧，使得人们不敢将钱存入银行。人们认为将钱藏在家里更安全。据说，越挑剔的储蓄者，越小心翼翼。他们喜欢储存序列号前缀为X的钞票，即在德国发行的货币。前缀为U（法国）或者P（荷兰）的钞票也可以，但是那些前缀为 Y或者S，分别是在希腊和意大利发行的钞票则是要极力避免的。

The logic was that if you were preparing for financial apocalypse, you had better not rely on the euro area surviving intact.In fact, banknotes are a shared obligation of all euro-zone members, no matter where they are printed.If the issuing country were to leave the single currency, a five-euro note would still be worth five euros, whatever the serial number.However, interest-bearing debt denominated in euros is a different matter, and bond markets quickly started to sort the Xs from the Ys.这背后的逻辑是如果你警惕经济灾难，最好不要试图依靠欧元区而毫发无损。事实上，流通中的钞票是所有欧元区成员国的共同负债，不管它是在哪儿发行。如果发行国打算放弃单一货币，一个5欧元的钞票仍然值5个欧元，不管它的序列号是什么。然而，欧元面值的有息负债却是另一回事，债券市场很快开始将前缀为X和Y 的钞票区分开来。

By early 2009 the yield on a ten-year Greek government bond was almost twice that on a comparable German Bund.The spread over Bunds for Italian, Spanish and Irish bonds also widened dramatically before narrowing again more recently.One explanation was that in skittish markets Bunds were prized for their extra liquidity.Another was that the bond-trading arms of bombed-out banks were less willing to make markets in the issues of small countries, such as Greece and Ireland, which left their prices unmoored.2009年早些时候，希腊政府10年期国债收益率几乎是德国相应国债的两倍。意大利，西班牙和爱尔兰国债间的收益率差距在最近收窄前曾一度急剧扩大。一种解释是在变幻莫测的市场中人们特别青睐流动性特好的债券。另一种解释是遭受重创的银行债券交易机构不愿意承销象希腊、爱尔兰等小国发行的债券，这使得这些小国的国债价格下跌。

But at least part of the rise in spreads reflected concern that countries might find it hard to pay back their borrowings.The government bonds of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain were all downgraded a notch by credit-rating agencies.For some, bond spreads are a crude gauge of the risk that the euro will break up.If a euro-zone member were shut out of capital markets and had to default on its debt, it might be tempted to use the opportunity to recreate its own currency and devalue.In that event, creditors could be forced to convert their bonds into claims in a new currency at a discount linked to a new exchange rate against the euro.Default would be one way for countries to free themselves from the euro’s shackles—or, to look at it from the opposite point of view, for the euro zone to rid itself of troublesome members.但是收益率差距扩大至少部分反映了人们对欧元区一些国家可能很难偿还借款的担忧。希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙政府的国债评级全部被评级机构降了一级。对一些人来说，国债收益差是对欧元区分裂风险的粗略估计。如果欧元区的一个成员国被资本市场拒之门外以及他不得不拖欠债务，他很可能趁机重新创造自己的货币，然后进行贬值。如果那样，债权人将被迫将他们的债券以与新货币对欧元汇率相关联的新货币折价计算求偿权。违约将是这些国家逃脱欧元枷锁的一种方法或者从相反的角度看，也是欧元区除掉其令人头疼的成员的方法。

A game of consequences 后果游戏

That kind of thinking, however, is found mostly among those who were doubtful that the euro would ever get off the ground in the first place.It is rare in countries seen as candidates for exit.As Eurocrats in Brussels are keen to stress, far from breaking up, the euro zone is growing.Since its launch it has taken on five new members, and more are queuing to join.然而，那种想法主要集中在那些一开始就对欧元能否顺利实施的国家。现在还没有国家准备退出。布鲁塞尔的欧共体官员热衷于强调，欧元区正在扩大，远没有分裂。欧元启动以来已新增了五个成员，还有更多的国家正排队准备加入。

The costs of backing out of the euro are hard to calculate but would certainly be heavy.The mere whiff of devaluation would cause a bank run: people would scramble to deposit their euros with foreign banks to avoid forced conversion to the new, weaker currency.Bondholders would shun the debt of the departing country, and funding of budget deficits and maturing debt would be suspended.中途退出欧元区的成本很难准确计算但是这个代价必然很沉重。仅仅一阵贬值将会引起银行挤兑：人们会争先将他们的欧元存入外国银行从而避免被迫转换为新的弱势货币。债券持有者将会极力避免可能会退出欧元区国家发行的债券，预算赤字的融资以及到期债务将会被延期。

Changing all contracts in euros—bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, wage deals and so on—to the new currency would be a logistical nightmare.The changeover to the euro was planned in detail and the exchange rate was fixed in advance, in co-operation with all the euro members.The reverse operation would be nothing like as orderly, not least because the exchange rate would be a moving target.将债券、抵押贷款、银行存款和劳动合同等所有以欧元表示的合同转化为以新货币表示的合同将是一个后勤上的恶梦。各成员国货币统一为欧元时是经过详细计划的，汇率是同所有成员国合作提前固定的。反向操作不太可能有条理，有序进行，特别是因为汇率将会是一个不断变化的目标。

If businesses converted their debts to a weaker currency, that might constitute default and trigger legal challenges.If they stuck to their covenants, they would have to service their euro debts from earnings in a weaker currency.That would hurt firms which rely mostly on profits from their domestic market.The convulsions would be felt by other euro-area members too.The writedown of the departing country’s government bonds might threaten the solvency of banks in the rest of the euro zone.Around half of Italian government bonds, for instance, are held outside Italy.Other euro-area members could suffer contagion as markets bet on further defaults.如果企业将他们的债务转化成以弱势货币计价，那将会引发一些违约现象并且引起法律上的挑战。如果他们按照原来的以欧元计价的合同，他们不得不用以弱势货币计价的营业收入去偿还他们的欧元债务。那将对严重依赖国内市场的公司造成伤害。欧元区其他成员国也将感受到震荡。对要离开国政府债券的价值减计将会影响到欧元区其他地区的银行的偿付能力。例如，约一半的意大利政府国债被国外的投资者持有。随着市场预期违约风险的加剧，欧元区其他成员国将会受到严重影响。

If the act of leaving would be hard, the aftermath might be even harder.A country that forced bondholders to take a loss would be punished.Continued access to bond markets would come at a high price.Investors would ask for a huge premium to cover the risk of further default.On that count alone, borrowing costs would be far higher than they were within the safer confines of the euro area.如果说退出欧元区本身就困难重重，其影响可能会更严重。那些迫使债券持有者承担损失的国家将受到惩罚。再次进入债券市场的代价将会非常大。投资者会要求更高的溢价来弥补进一步加大的违约风险。仅这一点就会使得借款成本远远高于他们待在更安全的欧元区。

Investors would have to protect themselves from two further risks: exchange-rate volatility and inflation.A former euro member would have to reinvent its own monetary policy and would struggle to convince investors that it could keep a lid on inflation.One of the euro’s big attractions was that it offered many countries a shortcut to a credible monetary set-up.Devaluation could itself trigger a wage-price spiral.For high-debt countries, such as Greece and Italy, the interest rates demanded by markets to insure themselves against such risks would be ruinous.投资者将不得不保护自己免受汇率波动和通货膨胀的风险。之前的欧元区成员国将不得不重新采用自己的货币政策并且努力使投资者相信他可以控制通货膨胀。欧元最大的魅力之一是它为很多国家提供了一个实现有公信力的货币政策的捷径。贬值本身将引发工资-价格螺旋。对象希腊和意大利等高负债国家，市场投资者为确保自身免受此类风险而要求的利率将会太高，且是破坏性的。

And even though the costs are likely to be heavy, the immediate benefits might prove only transitory.A devaluation is a proxy for a national pay cut: it helps exporters but makes consumers of imports poorer.Workforces would put up strong resistance to being paid in a weaker currency.In countries such as Greece and Ireland, whose exports contain a lot of imports, a devaluation would push up inflation.And where a large proportion of wage contracts is indexed to prices, as in Spain, higher inflation would rapidly work its way through to wages.即使成本很可能很高，但最直接的好处却可能很短暂。贬值可以减少国民支出：它对出口商有利，但是对进口商品的消费者不利。劳动者将会强力组织反对以弱势货币来支付薪酬。象希腊和爱尔兰等出口产品中进口大部分原料的国家，贬值会推高通货膨胀。在大部分工资合同根据物价进行调整的国家，例如西班牙，高通胀会很快通过就会导致工资上涨。

The wrong cure 错误处方

An exit from the euro would not tackle weak productivity growth and inflexible wages, which are the root causes of low competitiveness.In time, further devaluations might be needed.Countries with high debts and a history of poor macroeconomic management would be most tempted to leave.But these are also the countries most likely to be hurt.退出欧元区不会解决疲软的产出增长和刚性工资等导致经济低竞争力的根源问题。最终，欧元区可能需要进一步进行贬值。那些高负债以及宏观经济管理一直较差的国家将最有可能退出。但是这些国家也最可能受到伤害的。

A more plausible, though still unlikely, scenario would involve a breakaway by a group of low-debt and cost-competitive countries, centred around Germany.Members of a new, “hard” European currency would leave behind a stock of depreciating euro debt and might be rewarded by lower borrowing costs on debt issues in the new currency.Yet a large part of the appeal to Germany of the single currency has been that it rules out revaluations and rewards its firms for being competitive.Germany, France and the rest have too much invested in the success of the EU and the euro to put it at risk.As Daniel Gros of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels think-tank, puts it: “The weak can’t leave and the strong won’t leave.” 一个更合理但可能性较小的情景是以德国为中心的低负债和具有成本优势的一批国家集体退出。新的硬欧洲通货的成员将面对一些贬值的欧元债务并且采用新货币的好处是债务的借贷成本将减少。但是单一货币对德国的魅力很大部分在于它排除了货币升值的可能性并且国内公司将因其竞争力而获利。德国、法国和其他国家对欧盟的成功付出很多，欧元却将它置于危险境地。布鲁塞尔智囊团－欧洲政策研究中心的Daniel Gros说：“弱国不能离开并且强国不会离开 ”。

The promise and peril of independence 独立的希望和危险

Jun 11th 2009 | NASIR From The Economist print edition

In 2011 Africa is set to get a new country.But South Sudan could well start life as a prefailed state 2011年非洲将诞生一个新的国家。先天不足，南苏丹能步入正轨吗？

MAJOR JOHNSON GUCH of the Sudanese People‘s Liberation Army(SPLA)sits outside a grass hut at the edge of Nasir, a missionary post in Nuerland that in time became a dismal town(see map).Dressed in a tracksuit, he gives the air of a local warlord.A Nuer himself, Mr Guch is commander of a joint integrated unit(JIU)of southern and northern Sudanese soldiers mandated to keep the peace in Nasir.He says he has 150 southern soldiers, each with a small tin of bullets.But he is dismissive of the northern soldiers.He does not know how many there are.He says he does not care.It is not, in any sense of the word, a joint command.苏丹人民解放军（SPLA）MAJOR JOHNSON GUCH坐在纳西尔边境的茅草屋外面，Nuerland的一个行动点不久就变成了凄凉的小镇（见图）。穿着田径装，他颇有当地军阀的气质。自己也是努尔人，Guch先生是南北苏丹士兵联合部队的司令，这支部队被委任保持纳西尔地区的和平。他说他有150名南苏丹士兵，每个士兵有一小罐子弹。但他对北苏丹士兵不感兴趣。他既不知道有多少北苏丹士兵，也不在乎这些。无论怎么说，这都不是联合司令部。

The commander of the northern troops, Captain Osman Mustafa, is more gracious, but also more disingenuous.His tent is a walk across a black wasteland pocked by the twisted wreckage of vehicles blown up in the war and little piles of human faeces left by the locals, who eschew latrines.A Muslim from the Nuba mountains, Mr Mustafa says he has 300 soldiers, enough guns and, of course, very good relations with the southerners.北苏丹部队首领Osman Mustafa更亲切也更虚伪。到他的帐篷要走过一片黑色的废墟，废墟上有许多战争中爆炸遗留下来的车辆遗骸和几堆当地人的粪便，当地人不用厕所。Mustafa先生是来着努巴山区的穆斯林，他称他有300名士兵，足够的枪。当然也和南苏丹人相处得很好。

Together with a hopelessly inactive UN peacekeeping force dug in on the other side of Nasir, the JIU stood by and did nothing when one group of Nuer attacked another last m onth, slaughtering 71 people in the nearby village of Torkej.The Lou-Nuer targeted a cattle camp tended by women and children from the Jikany.Those sleeping outside under mosquito nets were shot point blank.The Lou sprayed the huts with bullets.They drove older children into the river, where they drowned.The Lou took the cattle and Torkej‘s other meagre possessions.Fifty seven wounded were taken to a Médecins Sans Frontières hospital.驻扎在纳西尔另一边的联合国维和部队，同样不能发挥其作用。上个月，一群努尔人在Torkej村庄袭击了另一群努尔人，屠杀了71个人。维和部队和联合部队袖手旁观，无所作为。卢-努尔人将Jikany一个由妇女和儿童看管的牲口棚定为了袭击目标。那些睡在外面蚊帐下的人被近距离枪杀。卢-努尔人扫射了这个牲口棚。他们大一点的孩子赶到河里淹死了。卢-努尔人掳走了Torkej的牲口和少量财产。75名受伤者已经送往Médecins Sans Frontières医院。

The Jikany insist it is unheard of for cattle raiders to target women and children.They are furious that they had no guns to defend themselves.Under South Sudan‘s patchy disarmament programme, the Jikany gave up their guns, the Lou kept theirs.Jikany elders say the Lou are working for the northern government of President Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum.They believe the north supplied at least 1,000 machineguns to the Lou in recent months.They say the Lou have been attacking their neighbours on all sides, including the Murle to the south, at the behest of Mr Bashir‘s government.For their part, the Lou say it is the Murle who are proxies of the northern regime.Jikany人坚称对以妇女和儿童为目标的牲口突袭者闻所未闻。没有枪支来自卫更使他们愤怒。在南苏丹不一致的解除武装行动下，Jikany人上交了他们的枪支，Lou人却保留了他们的枪支。Jikany长辈们宣称Lou人在为喀土穆的北方政府奥马尔.巴希尔总统效力。他们认为北方政府在近几个月内提供了至少1000把机关枪给Lou人。他们说Lou人按照巴希尔政府的要求，不停地到处袭击他们的周围地区，包括南部的Murle。对Lou人来说，Murle才是北方政权的代理人。

Whatever the truth, the episode is a sign of a wider breakdown of peace across southern Sudan.In the past month or so hundreds of people have been killed in violent clashes similar to the one in Torkej, as nomadic groups compete for the best cattle and grazing land.Conflict is normal, but it is not normal for so many to be killed in this way—at least in recent years.The UN says that more people are now being killed in the south than in Darfur, Sudan‘s troubled western region.无论真相如何，这一事件标志着南苏丹地区和平全面的崩溃。近几个月，数以百计的人在类似Torkej 的暴力冲突中丧生，比如游牧部落争夺最好的牲口和牧场。这样的冲突再正常不过了，但是至少在近几年，如此之多人丧生就不正常了。联合国宣称，南苏丹所丧生的人口数目，比苏丹西部混乱的达尔富尔地区还要多。

Under the terms of a peace agreement with the northern government of Mr Bashir signed in 2005, the south is expected to vote for secession in a referendum in 2011.The prospect of gaining a new country, South Sudan, raised hopes of an end to Sudan‘s civil war between the predominantly Muslim north and the Christian and animist south, which lasted on and off for the best part of 50 years.At last, the flattened south would rebuild itself.