ＸＸ县1-6月经济社会发展运行分析报告

第一篇：ＸＸ县1-6月经济社会发展运行分析报告

ＸＸ县发展和改革局关于我县1-6月经济社会发展运行分析报告

县人民政府：

今年是“十一五”规划开局之年。半年来，在县委、县政府的领导下，全县上下认真贯彻落实科学发展观，围绕“产业立县、以港兴城、开放门户、文明崛起”四大发展战略，积极推进经济增长方式转变，更加注重发挥工业、投资的拉动作用和重点项目的支撑作用，全县呈现出多年少见的经济快速发展、社会事业繁荣的良好局面。

一、经济社会发展的基本情况和主要特点

在天原、旅发等一大批项目的拉动下，我县经济持续快速发展。1－6月，全县实现地区生产总值10.38亿元，增长13.9%，完成市目标41.2%，同比提高1.7个百分点，快于全市平均水平0.2个百分点。三次产业增加值结构比为28.7：30.5：40.8，产业结构进一步优化。

经济社会发展主要呈现以下特点:

（一）县域经济实力快速提升

一是主要经济指标大幅攀升。国内生产总值达到10.38亿元,同比增长13.9%;工业增加值达到2.6亿元,同比增长40%;全社会固定资产投资达到5.2亿元,同比增长146.34%;社会消费品零售总额达到5.23亿元,同比增长15.71%;地方财政一般预算收入达到2245万元,同比增长35.5%。以上主要经济指标接近或高于全市平均水平，经济发展综合情况在全市排位有所提升。

二是工业发展势头强劲。1-6月,全县实现工业增加值实现2.6亿元,增长40%。其中,规模以上工业增加值实现1.26亿元,增长43.7%；工业产品销售收入3.9亿元，增长45.77%；实现利税3242万元，增长67.17%；工业经济效益综合指数达到118%，比去年同期提高了6个百分点。天原化工项目的快速推进，为ＸＸ工业强县奠定了坚实基础。

三是农业生产稳步增长。小春粮食产量达2.1万吨，同比增长0.41%。大春实现满栽满插，“订单农业”面积达到19.3万亩，大春生产长势良好，丰收有望。上半年出栏肉猪25.92万头，同比增长4.38%；出栏家禽339.07万只，增长6.51%；累计肉类产量2.48万吨，增长5.59%。江北万亩高效农业示范区，四面山“三江獭兔养殖场”、高金食品公司等产业化开发项目进一步促进和加快了全县农业结构调整步伐。全县继续加大农村劳务输出，新增农民外出务工人员5000余人次，加速了农民增收。

四是服务业持续增长。1－6月，商贸流通实现社会消费品零售总额5.23亿元，同比增长15.71%；旅游接待人数超过11万人次，实现旅游收入6400余万元，分别增长10%和6.6%；个体及私营经济保持了良好发展势头,营业收入达到4.22亿元,增长10.05%。半年城乡集市贸易成交额达1.73亿元，增长3.23%。

（二）功能区带动作用凸显

“十一五”规划确定的三大功能区建设已全面启动，对经济发展的拉动作用日益明显，最突出的表现是阳春工业功能区和沿江港口区迅速扩张。天原化工项目的极化效应开始显现，长江造林局、重庆索特集团、成都川科塑料集团、印尼华侨等都有在阳春工业功能区投资意向，沿江较大规模港口建设也在洽谈之中，对加快我县物流业的发展十分有利。总之，阳春工业功能区和沿江港口区迅速扩张，必将推动ＸＸ经济的快速腾飞，ＸＸ作为宜宾东大门门户优势必将更加凸显。夕佳山民俗文化风情园区建设正加快推进，正在逐步形成我县旅游发展的增长极。

（三）投资迅猛增长，重大项目加快推进

2006年，我县固定资产投资是建国以来最多的一年，1-6月全社会固定资产投资完成5.2亿元，增长146.34%，比去年同期提高1.12倍，完成年度目标41.6%。其中：基建投资、更新改造投资保持较快增长，分别增长70.29%和583.54%，是名符其实的超常投资年。全年31个重点项目，计划今年完成投资8.75亿元，其中重大项目有15个。

一是天原ＸＸ化工新区项目。作为ＸＸ“一号工程”的天原ＸＸ化工新区项目自今年1月征地撤迁开始，在70天内，全面完成了997亩土地征和276户农户的房屋搬迁，实现零上访。ＸＸ人既创造了ＸＸ速度，赢得了业主的高度赞誉，更为ＸＸ招商引资树立了良好形象，同时，被市委、市政府誉为宜宾速度，这是我县建设清明政治，树立清新政风结出的丰硕成果。目前，工程进展顺利。厂区自4月5日开工，平场工程已完成工程量的80%，局部完成90%，地下管线安装基本结束，已投入近3亿元完成主要设备采购。搬迁安置房建设二次平场已完成，20栋安置房中有10栋开始建设，其中4栋正在浇筑基础混泥土，6栋正在进行基础开挖，已完成投资230万元。新区35KV施工及保安电源已建成供电，新区全长6.294公里、宽12米的沿江公路A标段路基工程已招标建设，B标段工程和A标段路面硬化工程将与天原公司采用BT方式建设。

二是旅发项目。夕佳山民俗文化风情园项目争取国家开发银行贷款800万元，馆内绣楼、碉楼、马房、轿房修缮整治工程，馆内游山道石板铺设、博物馆朝门、围墙绿化工程已基本完成。馆外游山道、绿化工程预计6月完工；游人接待中心、广场及停车场，仙鹤湖及湖滨道、牌坊、游人接待中心布展、排污设施预计在7月底完成。3.44公里竹都大道整治工程，已完成路基降坡、管网铺设，正加快路基垫层和路面工程建设，路基已完成工程量的80%。竹都大道中段预计八月竣工，全工程将于10底竣工。江长公路ＸＸ段路基工程全面完成。底蓬至红桥公路30公里二级沥青混凝土路面改建工程已完成工程量的55%，完成投资1300万元，预计八月初全面建成。

三是交通项目。长江大桥已完成总工程量的70%，累计完成投资1亿元，预计春节前基本建成。育江大桥预计九月底可建成。宜泸渝高速公路(ＸＸ段)的前期工作顺利推进，江南方案已通过可研预评审，项目建议书已上报交通部和国家发改委。白土地散装货运码头、白沙码头等前期工作加快推进。

四是其他项目。柑桔良种繁育搬迁项目已完成土地租用和大棚设施建设，上半年已完成投资180余万元。国土整治项目计划整治国土801公顷，新增耕地119.8公顷，现已完成工程量的80%；完成投资740万元，占计划投资的59%。农网完善工程与县城电网改造工程正有效推进。教育方面的江南职校改造项目与底蓬中学高中扩招项目也进展顺利。县城污水处理项目预计9月底完工，县城垃圾中转站已完成新厂址土地征用、三通一平、围墙、压缩车间一层、栈桥护坡、综合楼基础等，完成投资220万元。

（四）招商引资日趋活跃

全县招商引资实际到位资金达3.7亿元，完成年度目标的70%，同比增长14%。长江造林局、重庆索特集团、成都川科塑料集团、成都宝源矿业、宜宾飞跃、印尼华侨等企业均前往ＸＸ洽谈招商引资项目。为促进对外招商，我县与湛江市坡头区正式达成缔结友好区县意向。

（五）财政金融运行平稳，城乡居民收入稳步增长

1－6月，地方财政一般预算收入实现2245万元，增长35.5%。其中：县级财政收入1487.8万元，增长32.54%；乡镇级财政收入757.2万元，增长41.67%。地方财政支出完成9655万元，增长13.7%，半年财政收支总体算帐基本正常。6月末，金融机构各项存款余额22.68亿元，比年初增长23.82%；贷款余额6.29亿元，比年初增长1.27%，半年净贷余额增长789万元，其中：商业贷款增长9.18%，工业、农业贷款分别下降12.61%和2.17%。1－6月，城镇居民人均可支配收入4171.48元，同比增加463.48元，增长12.5%；农民人均纯收入1420元，增加150元，增长11.81%。居民消费价格总指数控制在101.5%。

（六）各项社会事业发展不断加强

就业形势逐步转好，社会保障覆盖面继续扩大。全县新增就业1941个，其中天原在我县新招工人418人，城镇登记失业率控制在4.5%以内。社会保险扩面1045人，完成社会保险费征收1832万元，支付各项社会保险费1702.3万元，支付率100%。城镇居民享受最低生活保障10404人次，累计发放低保金401万元。

教育事业取得新进展。高考上线人数达到1304人，其中本科上线238人，比上年增加59人，增长32.96 %。实施了33所农村中小学危房改造。完善和规范学校收费体制，进一步落实农村贫困学生“两免一补”政策。

公共卫生服务体系建设加快。县疾控中心和传染病区已建成投入使用，3个乡级卫生院正在实施新建或改造。

社会治安形势稳定。刑事案件立案增幅下降，破案率同比有所提高。安全生产形势良好。全县上半年共发生交通肇事、生产安全死亡事故22起，上升了15.8%，但仅死亡9人，下降了30.8%：经济损失47.24万元，同比下降8%。

二、需要关注的主要问题

在全县经济社会发展总体保持快速发展的同时，应该看到，产业基础薄弱、城乡发展不协调、增长方式粗放、投融渠道单一等一些深层次矛盾和问题尚未根本解决。同时，当前经济社会发展也出现了一些值得关注的问题。

一是产业基础薄弱，尤其工业不强。主要反映在经济总量小，全县上半年GDp仅有10.38亿元，人均GDp只有2921元，特别是反映ＸＸ经济发展规模与质量的工业经济，其总量还不到GDp的四分之一，同时，普遍存在科技含量低、产业层次低、产品附加值低，环保、安全压力大等问题。

二是项目建设资金严重不足。项目建设，特别是表现在一批关系全县经济发展至关重要的工程项目上。如天原ＸＸ化工新区基础设施建设、ＸＸ长江公路大桥、竹都大道整治工程、育江大桥等，由于地方财力溥弱，无法筹集足够资金，工作推进较困难。

三是新农村建设推进难度大。新农村建设面宽量大，农业产业化程度低、科技服务水平低，农民增收难度大；农业基础设施脆弱，需要建设的农村公路、水利设施多；农村城镇化水平十分低下，农民房屋改造量大等，所有这些问题都直接影响新农村建设。

四是社会就业压力依然严峻。1—6月，城镇登记失业率4.3 %，预计社会隐形失业率达到近10%。县域劳动力就业空间和劳动力输出渠道有限，社会就业压力在不断增大，社会不稳定因素增加。

五是城乡居民收入水平低，消费拉动力较弱。上半年，城镇居民可支配收入仅有4171.48元，比全市平均水平低197.52元：农民人均现金收入1461元，比全市平均水平低101.42元，今年气价、水价、房价、乘车和市场物价都在逐渐上涨，群众的实际收入水平增长缓慢。同时，全县低收入群体居高不下，城镇低保和农村低保人数比上年同期增长了2.2%和4.7%，城乡市场消费增长在相对减弱。

三、下半年工作建议

为保持我县经济社会快速、持续、健康协调发展，为“十一五”发展战略开好头，起好步，建议重点做好以下五个方面的工作：

（一）抓紧解决新农村建设当中的具体问题

一要加强政策集成、资金集成，集中抓好20个县级新农村建设试点。制定新农村建设规划，明确各级补贴标准，形成政府投入引导、社会力量广泛参与、广大农村自愿投入的多方协作机制。二要继续落实政府投资向农村倾斜政策，加快村镇基础设施和公共服务设施建设，引进新机制，探索解决制约农村发展的紧迫问题，如乡村公路、农村能源、给排水等，切实改善农村生产生活条件。三要加快农村产业化经营，用高技术改造传统农业，培育特色主导产业。四要适应农村集体产权制度改革和建立农村股份合作制的需要，大力培育集体经济组织、专业合作组织以及农户发展资金互助组织，引导农户土地承包经营权流转，推进特色主导产业适度规模经营。

（二）继续加快重点工程建设，做好项目前期工作

一是加强协调组织，加快宜泸渝高速公路(ＸＸ段)、白沙码头、阳春码头、江北物流园区项目、22万伏变电站、ＸＸ体育中心等项目前期工作，促进未开工的项目尽早开工建设。同时，加快政府投资项目的各项前期工作，规范政府投资管理的各项制度，加强项目全过程监管，提高政府投资效益。二是加强项目实施调度，切实扎实抓好31个重点项目建设，确保天原、旅发倒排工期项目和长江大桥等重大任务按期保质完成。要重点推进天原化工、长江局竹胶合板等重大产业项目建设，保持工业投资稳定较快增长，增强产业发展后劲。三是落实好土地供应计划，坚持部门联动机制，及早落实招商引资与重点建设用地需要。盘活存量土地，合理安排入市规模，增加普通住宅、经济适用房用地有效供给。四是切实加强阳春工业功能区沿江公路交通、35千伏电站、供排水、垃圾污水处理等设施建设，完善功能区投资环境。加快循环经济试点ＸＸ阳春坝工业集中园区规划，进一步明确阳春坝工业集中园区功能定位，同时，加强集中区招商引资和对外宣传，提高工业集中区知名度。

（三）抓好招商引资工作，大力发展民营经济

继续抓好招商引资工作，紧紧围绕“三个三”的发展思路，构建“大招商”格局，努力实现招商引资特别在工业招商上的新突破；以天原入驻为契机，进一步构筑阳春工业集中区招商平台，积极开展配套项目招商；继续做好项目论证、储备、申报和开发工作。进一步治理招商引资软环境，转变政府职能，改进机关作风，严肃责任追究；强化政务中心职能，简化办事程序，实行一站式服务，进一步减少和规范行政审批，激活民间资金，促进民营经济快速发展。

（四）抢抓旅发会机遇，加快以旅游为重点的第三产业发展

以旅发会在宜宾召开为契机，全力做好迎接全省旅发大会的项目建设工作，努力提升我县旅游业发展水平。全面实施夕佳山景区的整体开发，努力将夕佳山古民居群打造成川南旅游环线上的精品景区；积极推动国立剧专旧址原貌恢复工作；大力推进以竹都大道改造和旅游公路沿线风貌整治；推进县城绿化、亮化、硬化工程，提高管理水平，全力打造“滨江生态园林城市”的崭新形象。推进ＸＸ百竹海、南屏山和青峰寺森林公园等景区景点的保护、宣传、包装和开发工作，打造旅游新亮点。逐步推进竹工艺品的产业化开发，活跃奇石交易市场，强化旅游人才培训、特色旅游商品开发、特色餐饮文化挖掘等工作，以生态、文化特色旅游带动全县第三产业快速发展。

（五）强化保障体系建设，促进社会协调发展

全面落实促进就业和再就业政策，积极帮助重点救助对象和“三无”农民就业；认真做好社会保障保险工作，确保保险基金征缴和按时足额发放；加快公共卫生服务体系建设，稳步推进城乡医疗救助，积极开展农村医疗卫生体制改革，着力解决群众“就医难”问题。全面提高计生工作质量，控制人口增长，提高人口素质。大力发展文化产业和体育事业，积极推进农村文化服务体系建设。认真做好移民安置各项前期准备工作。

第二篇：2012年1月经济工作会交流材料

2012年第一季度经济工作会交流材料

构皮滩镇人民政府

按照会议安排，现将2012第一季度经济运行情况汇报如下：

一、工作完成情况

（一）主要经济指标完成情况

预计完成地区生产总值5525万元，完成了全年任务数的%固定资产投资5070万元，完成了全年任务数的%；财政收入万元，支出万元；存款余额3.33亿元，贷款余额1.68亿元，招商引资到位资金3000万元，完成了全年任务数的%。

（二）项目建设完成情况

1、全年重点项目计划

（1）完成农业综合服务楼的建设；（2）完成构皮摊华新小区商住楼的建设；（3）推进构皮滩大酒店的建设；（4）加大新林路街道建设项目的力度；（5）推进郭家坳至涧子水街道项目建设；

（6）建设郭家坳至涧子水街道排污沟、水网、电网及农贸市场的建设；（7）完成创森宏源木业加工厂的建设；（8）加大太兴路的开发；（9）完成大棚新村进寨路的硬化；（10）新林小区的建设；（11）完成构皮滩小吃街的建设；（12）落实土地整治项目；

（13）加快钒钼矿科研所的建设；（14）加快天星桥电站的建设；

（15）完成黄泥洞电站的建设。

（二）重点项目的完成进度

完成农业综合服务楼的基础建设，并完成招标工作；构皮滩华鑫商住小区建设项目已进入四楼主体施工阶段；构皮滩大酒店建设已进入三楼主体施工；新林路道路建设项目已完成了街道路灯安装、路面浇油，42户居民的房屋建设已进入施工阶段；郭家坳至涧子水街道项目已平整路面1300米，完成了排污沟、和管网的建设以及路灯安装；创森宏源木业加工厂已完成12000平方

米的土地流转和场地平整；完成了大棚新村进寨路的硬化800米，土地整治项目完成了设计及相关手续的报批；钒钼矿科研所已完成了征地和勘测，天星桥电站完成了拦河坝的修建及厂房的建设；完成了红旗、天生桥、永兴三个村级卫生室建设；黄泥洞电站的主体项目已完成；启动了构皮滩集镇旅游客运站的建设和构皮滩集镇小吃街的建设；现代烟草厂房建设已进入招标阶段。

二、主要做法和措施

1、抓好两个班子，落实思想统一。围绕完成任务是基本目标，思想统一是基础，保证质量是前提的根本要求，定时定期召开党政班子会，股站所负责人会，村级班子会，将思想统一到完成任务的决心上来，统一到全面协调，突出重点上来，统一到领导负责，部门承担，村级主掌协调配合上来，为实现各目标任务打牢思想基础，提供组织保证。

2、抓好工作调度，落实阶段性目标。根据年初各项目标制定好相关的工作措施，解决好人从哪里来，事该怎么办，钱要往哪里投的问题，根据阶段性的目标，分解好工作职责，明确好责任人和责任单位。实行统一调度与重点调度相结合，解决重点问题和年初前布置的相结合，克服好人员短缺和资金短缺问题，调配好骨干力量，使之干事不缺位，成事不怠慢，促进阶段目标的基本落实，为完成全年发展任务创造条件。

3、抓好群工协调，落实好项目进度。抓好经济工作，项目是基础，群工协调是关键。成立了由镇人大、纪检、财政、项目责任单位为主体的项目群工协调工作领导小组，研究解决好工程中遇到的新问题，新情况，千方百计让项目区的群众了解项目的突出作用，让群众参与到项目建设上来，千方百计让利于民，让群众无理由阻碍工程。全方位协调好，确保各类项目按时间按里程推进。

4、抓好投入和依法行政，落实好民生和社会稳定。一方面加大在城管、安全、供水、供电、矛盾纠纷以及社会中的资金投

入，确保事情要办好，问题要解决；一方面要运用公安、司法等法律手段，严厉打击损害民生，破坏社会稳定的行为，确保社会稳定有基础，民生有保障。

三、下一步工作打算

一是抓好项目建设，加快发展。围绕主导产业扩张、新农村建设、镇村基础设施建设，切实搞好项目建设。

二是抓好工作调度，落实阶段性目标。根据年初各项目标制定好相关的工作措施，实行统一调度与重点调度相结合，解决问题，克服困难，确保目标的完成；

三是抓依法行政工作，落实好民生和社会稳定。及时化解矛盾纠纷，解决社会历史遗留问题；依法厉打击损害民生，破坏社会稳定的行为。强化安全生产责任落实，加强安全生产各个行业和领域的监管，开展安全生产专项整治、检查，严防各类安全生产事故的发生，确保社会稳定有基础，民生有保障，为经济社会的发展营造良好的环境。

第三篇：赏析版2012年3月经济学人文章

赏析版2012年3月经济学人文章（英汉双语对照）汇集

Contents [2012.03.31]A muffled big bang 哑了火的大爆炸 1 [2012.03.31]Vietnam: Hero to zero 越南从英雄到狗熊 4 [2012.03.31]Falklands war: Short, victorious war 福克兰战爭30周年祭 6 [2012.03.30]Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商 10 [2012.03.24]South China Sea: Full unclosure?南中国海地位未定？ 13 [2012.03.24]Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退却 [2012.03.24]Adagio, OPERA 悠着点，OPERA 19 [2012.03.17]Flavoursome research “味儿足”的研究 25 [2012.03.17]A Singapore cemetery: Brown study 一座新加坡坟场 27 [2012.03.10]Bandwagons and busts 从众和灾难29 [2012.03.10]The death of trust 信任的消亡37 [2012.03.10]Natural stock selection 自然选择股票 46 [2012.03.10]Poaching：Black ivory 偷猎: 黑色象牙 47 [2012.03.10]Creation story 创造的故事 49 [2012.03.07]WHICH IS THE BEST LANGUAGE TO LEARN? 之六－拉丁语 52 [2012.03.06]Auschwitz complex 奥斯威辛情结 54 [2012.03.05]A reliable source on the ground现场有一个可靠线人 57 [2012.03.05]WHICH IS THE BEST LANGUAGE TO LEARN? 之五 58 [2012.03.03]Taking the long view 高瞻远瞩 60 [2012.03.03]How to rig an election 如何在选举中作弊 66 [2012.03.02]Can the scientists keep up? 科学家跟得上吗？ 68

[2012.03.31]A muffled big bang 哑了火的大爆炸 America’s capital markets 美国资本市场

A muffled big bang 哑了火的大爆炸

The JOBS Act and the BATS crash 《JOBS法案》和BATS的重创

Mar 31st 2012 | NEW YORK | from the print edition

THE capital market that is commonly thought to be the most developed in the world is, if you are being kind, in flux or, if you are not, in a mess.A stock-exchange blow-up has raised fresh questions about the reliability of America’s equities markets.More significantly, laws that govern how firms can raise money are on the verge of a profound revision.说得好听点，人们公认的全球最发达的资本市场如今处于变动期；说得不好听，那就是一团糟。BATS证券交易所遭受重创，这令人再次质疑美国股市是否可靠。更重要的是，监管公司集资的法律即将进行一次全面修订。[2012.03.17]Afghanistan: The lowered bar still looks high 难以逾越的障碍 First, the exchange snafu.A few years ago the temporary collapse of a trading venue in Lenexa, Kansas would not have been much noticed.Back then the Better Alternative Trading System(BATS)exchange was just a set of computer algorithms in the head of a man named Dave Cummings, who first computerised his own wheat-trading business and then expanded to accommodate equities.首先，BATS交易所状况混乱。若是数年前堪萨斯州的雷内萨斯有股票交易所一时受挫，那是不会引起什么关注的。那时，更佳替代交易系统（BATS）交易所不过是一个叫戴夫?卡明斯（Dave Cummings）的人想出来的一套计算机算法。一开始，他只是通过电脑来打理自己的小麦生意，后来才将这些算法应用至股市。

Now BATS is a big provider of market liquidity.On March 23rd a coding error at the exchange disrupted trading in firms whose ticker symbols ran from A to BFZZZ.That, unfortunately, was enough to capture both the world’s most valuable listed company—Apple’s stock slumped by 9% before circuit-breaker rules caused trading to be suspended—and, more embarrassingly, the shares of BATS itself on their very first day of trading.如今，BTAS让市场上的资产有了很强的折现能力。3月23日，BATS交易所出现了一个编码错误，导致股票代码为A至BFZZZ的公司的交易陷入混乱状态。很不幸，这个代码段包括了苹果公司和BATS的股票代码，在熔断机制中止所有交易前，全球市值最高的上市公司苹果公司的股价下跌9%；而更尴尬的是，BATS自身的股价在首个交易日就下跌。

Strikingly, the appeal of BATS as a venue for trading appears undamaged.By March 27th the exchange’s market share had recovered to 11%, two-thirds of that commanded by the far-better-known NASDAQ, and, when measured separately, close to that of the venerable New York Stock Exchange and its Archipelago affiliate.The glitch could have a more lasting effect on BATS’s plans to become a place where firms can list shares.The exchange operator quickly decided to pull its own offering, and its credibility as a venue for initial public offerings(IPOs)is hurt.But memories in this business are short and a more salient issue is the attractiveness of any exchange as a venue for raising capital.而引人注目的是，作为证券交易所BATS的吸引力似乎丝毫未减。到3月27日，交易所的市场分额已恢复至11%，是远比它知名的纳斯达克的三分之二；这个数值与历史悠久的纽约股票交易所及其Archipelago分所的份额（两者分开计算）很接近。这一个小失误可能会对BATS成为企业上市的交易所的计划产生更持久的影响。该交易所的运营者迅速地作出了撤消BTAS上市的决定，而人们则更加质疑BATS是否能成为企业首次上市的交易所。不过，这个行业是很健忘的，而更为突出的一个问题是：一般的证券交易所在筹资方面的吸引力。

Smaller firms in particular list less than they did.According to Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, an average of 165 companies with less than $50m in inflation-adjusted annual sales went public in America each year between 1980 and 2000.In 2001-2011 the average fell by more than 80%(see chart).尤其是，如今上市的规模较小的企业比过去少了。佛罗里达州大学的杰?里特（Jay Ritter）表示，1980年至2000年间美国平均每年有165家业绩低于五千万美元（已考虑通胀因素）的公司上市。而2001年至2011年此项数据下跌超过80%（见图表）。

That has got the lawmakers moving.On March 27th Congress sent a bill titled the JOBS Act to President Barack Obama for signing.In 22 pages—the equivalent of a blog post for a legislative branch with a propensity to expand any idea to Proustian lengths—the JOBS act creates routes for firms to circumvent or modify rules introduced as far back as the 1930s.The idea is to enable companies to raise money in a number of new ways while reducing compliance costs.这种状况使立法者有所行动。3月27日，国会将《JOBS法案》递交给巴拉克?奥巴马总统签署。长达22页（对一个喜欢像用《Proust》的篇幅来详述所有概念的立法部门而言，这个法案简直和一篇博文一样精简）的《JOBS法案》为企业提供了途径来规避或修改早在二十世纪三十年代就施行的条例。《JOBS法案》旨在让企业能在减少合规成本的同时通过多种新途径筹资。

Congress seems to have been moved in part by the appealing title—at a time of high unemployment, no one wants to vote against an act with “jobs” in the title, even if it is actually short for “Jumpstart Our Business Start-ups Act”.But there is also a growing realisation that piling on regulations—from the Sarbanes-Oxley act after Enron to the more recent monstrosity that is the Dodd-Frank act—does nothing to revive the economy’s animal spirits.国会似乎多少被法案那吸引人的名字所打动了——在一个失业率高企的时期，不会有人想给名字中有“就业”字眼的法案投反对票，即便那实际上只是《全力加快新兴企业发展法案》的缩写。但越来越多人意识到不断制定法规——从安然公司丑闻后的《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》到更近些时候的那份怪异的《多德弗兰克法案》——并无法振兴经济。

Predictably, many of the people responsible for those earlier rules, notably Eliot Spitzer, a former New York attorney-general(and disgraced governor), have expressed outrage.Mary Schapiro, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the agency responsible for securities regulation, wrote a letter full of objections.Mr Obama is ambivalent, but more likely to sign the bill than not, if only because a dynamic market for new firms would provide a whiff of hope and change.不出所料，这些旧法案的许多制订者也表达了他们的愤怒之情，尤其是前纽约司法部长（同时也是声名狼藉的州长）艾略特?斯皮策（Eliot Spitzer）。证券交易委员会（负责监管证券交易的机构）主席玛丽?夏皮罗（Mary Schapiro）写了一封通篇是反对意见的信。奥巴马总统也很矛盾，但他很可能会签署这个法案，皆因一个有利于新兴企业的生机勃勃的市场能够带来一丝希望和改变。

The act will certainly make markets more friendly to firms.The most publicised components of the bill allow them to “crowdsource” slivers of equity from retail investors online;reduce regulatory requirements for companies with under $1 billion in revenues;and enable firms to stay private even as the number of owners expands to 2,000(the prior limit was 500).无疑，这个法案会让市场变得对企业更为有利。法案中的一些条例允许企业在网上“众包筹集”散户的资金；放宽对收益少于10亿美元的公司的监管规定；并让企业在股份持有者少于2000人时仍可不上市（之前的上限是500人）。这部分条例是最广为人知的。

Title IV, the chapter devoted to “small company capital formation” adjusts Regulation A, a component of securities law that dates back to its earliest days, to allow firms to remain nominally private, meaning they face only minimal disclosure standards, and still raise up to $50m annually in shares that are transferable.Restrictions on circulating information on securities issuance will be loosened, as will the freedom of investment-bank analysts to provide reports on(and implicitly tout on behalf of)clients.That will mean more dubious research, but could also create more interest in the stocks of smaller firms and a profitable mechanism to take them public.法案中专门讲述“小型企业集资方式”的第四章对条例A（很早期的证券法的一部分）作出了修改，让公司名义上不上市，这意味着它们只需遵循最低信息披露标准，而且每年仍然可以用可转让的股份筹资五千万美元。证券发行信息的流通限制会有所放松，投行分析师也能更自由地选择是否提供客户信息，这样他们可以代表客户间接招揽投资业务。这将意味着市场调查的准确性将会下降，但也能让小型企业的股票收益更高，并建立一个对它们上市更有利的机制。

Collectively, all these rules will create a looser environment for raising equity.The law’s precise impact will be felt in two phases, says Reena Aggarwal of the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University.There will be an initial spike in fundraising activity;and there will be a longer-term effect, determined by whether the grey areas created under the law encourage viable enterprises to grow(in which case the exemptions will expand)or produce a result like London’s AIM market for smaller companies.Its looser listing standards prompted an initial flurry of interest but have since delivered poor returns for investors unable to distinguish between hype and substance.总体而言，所有的这些条例都会创造一个更为宽松的筹资环境。乔治城大学麦克唐纳商学院的丽娜?阿加沃尔（Reena Aggarwal）说，在两个阶段内就会看到这些条例的确切效果。一开始，将掀起一轮筹资热潮；而且将会有更为长久的效果，但这要看法例产生的灰色地带到底是会促进企业发展（这样一来将会进一步放宽监管条例）还是会让情况变成像伦敦小型公司的另类投资市场（AIM）那样。AIM放宽了企业上市的标准，这在一开始使股票行情有短暂波动，但自此也让那些不能够分辨大肆吹嘘的宣传与实质的投资者收益惨淡。

http://ecocn.org/thread-66036-1-1.html 译者：contrary

[2012.03.31]Vietnam: Hero to zero 越南从英雄到狗熊 Vietnam 越南

Hero to zero 从英雄到狗熊

The Communist Party sticks to its principles and the economy stalls 共产党坚持自己的原则，但经济则停滞不前 Mar 31st 2012 | HANOI | from the print edition

AMID the bustling trade and raucous traffic of the Vietnamese capital, innumerable banners exhort citizens to “Celebrate the Spring, Celebrate the Party.” These days, Hanoians do not have much to celebrate.Not long ago, Vietnam was one of the developing world’s pin-ups.Now it is lagging badly.在越南首都熙熙攘攘的贸易与刺耳的交通噪声中，数不清的标语横幅提醒市民要“赞美春天，赞美党”。如今的河内人没多少可赞美的。不久前越南还是发展中国家的佼佼者之一，现在它却大大落后了。

The most immediate concern is inflation, which last year rose to above 20% for the second time in three years(see chart).Vietnam now has Asia’s highest inflation rate, a fact that government censors have asked local journalists to stop reporting.Thousands of businesses have gone bankrupt, property prices have collapsed and banks and state-owned enterprises(SOEs)are riddled with bad debts.人们最直接的担心是通胀；去年的物价上涨在三年中第二次超过20%（见图表）。现在越南的通胀率位居亚洲之首，政府审查机构已责令本国记者不再报道这一事实。数以千计的企业破产，楼价崩盘，银行与国有企业（SOE）呆账缠身。

The reversal has been sudden.Vietnam’s GDP increased by more than 8% a year from 2003 to 2007, when the country attracted a surge of foreign investment.Now the World Bank is predicting that growth will average 6% a year in the five-year period up to the end of 2012.McKinsey, a consultancy, argues that unless Vietnam boosts its labour productivity by more than half, growth is likely to dwindle to below 5%.That will be well short of the government’s target of 7-8%.As McKinsey argues, “the difference sounds small, but it isn’t.” By 2020, Vietnam’s economy could be almost a third smaller than it would have been had economy continued to grow at 7% a year.逆转来得很突然。从2003到2007年，越南的GDP以每年大于8%的速度增长，外国投资大量涌入该国。现据世界银行预计，在截至2012年底的5年中，经济发平均年增长率只有6%。咨询公司麦肯锡（McKinsey）认为，如果越南不能将劳动生产率提高一半以上，则经济增长很可能会萎缩到5%以下。这将远低于政府7-8%的目标。正如麦肯锡所说的，“这一差别听上去不大，但事实并非如此。”到2020年，越南的经济可能会比它以每年7%的速度增长所能达到的水平低三分之一。

Everyone, even communist leaders, agrees on the main reasons for the slowdown.The poorly run, corrupt and wasteful SOEs, which account for about 40% of output, weigh the economy down.The formula of low-wage, low-cost manufacturing no longer works as it once did.Countries such as Cambodia and Bangladesh now undercut Vietnam in cheap manufactures.Yet the country has failed to move up the value-chain into more productive activities and higher-tech goods.所有的人，甚至共产党领袖们，都对经济放缓的主要原因看法一致。产品大约占总额40%的国有企业经营不善、贪腐普遍、浪费严重，因此拖累了经济。低工资、低成本的制造业模式不再像过去那样有效。柬埔寨和孟加拉国一类国家现在正以低价与越南竞争廉价制造业市场。而国家的价值链又未能攀升以进行更富成效的生产活动，生产更有科技含量的产品。

Frustratingly, however, realising this and doing something about it seem to be two different things in the minds of Vietnam’s communist rulers.A few optimists were hoping for changes at a three-day meeting of senior party cadres last month.Alas, there was a lot of breast-beating and little else.Nguyen Phu Trong, the general secretary of the Communist Party, urged the party to reform if it wanted to avoid an existential threat.But although his speech was made public, the rest of the meeting—in time-honoured fashion—took place behind closed doors.但令人压抑的是，在越南共产党统治者的心中，认识到这一点和对此采取措施似乎是两码事。有少数乐观主义者寄希望于上月举行的共产党高干会议，盼望这次为期三天的会议能带来改变。唉，与会者只会大发豪言壮语，除此实在没多少东西。共产党总书记阮富仲（Nguyen Phu Trong）告诫全党：想要避免生存危机，就必须进行改革。但尽管官方公开发表了他的讲话，但会议的其他部分则延续了闭门举行的悠久传统。

Calls by the party to reform or die are not new.“They’ve been saying that for 20 years,” says Carl Thayer, an expert on Vietnamese politics at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.What is missing, now as in the past, is any detailed plan about how to implement reforms such as restructuring the clunky state-owned sector, streamlining public investment and improving transparency.Nine executives from Vinashin, a debt-ridden state-owned shipbuilder, went on trial on March 27th charged with mismanaging state resources.It is the biggest case of its kind for several years, but the politicians who encouraged and financed the company’s grandiose expansion, including the prime minister, are not likely to be held to account.共产党不是第一次提出不改革就会灭亡的呼吁。“这话他们说了20年了，”设在堪培拉的澳大利亚国防科学研究所（Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra）的越南政治专家卡尔?萨耶尔（Carl Thayer）说。但无论过去或现在都缺少实施改革的详细计划——例如怎样重组笨拙的国有企业、精简政府投资和提高透明度。3月27日，负债累累的国营造船厂越南船舶工业公司（Vinashin）的9名高管因被控对国家资源处置不当而出庭受审。这是几年来这一类案子中最大的一宗，但鼓励这家公司的浮夸扩展并为之提供资金的政治家包括该国总理似乎却不会为此负责。

Even if there were a change of mind at the top, it would still be difficult for leaders to implement change throughout the system.Power in Vietnam is more dispersed than in neighbouring China, and vested interests in business and politics are bigger obstacles to change.Moreover, whereas China’s Communist Party has had some success in reinventing itself as an Ivy League-style networking club for the elite, its comrades in Vietnam appear stuck in the past.The legitimacy won by military victories more than a generation ago is fading into distant memory, and Vietnamese leaders’ claim to economic competence is increasingly difficult to sustain.即使高层改变了方针，领袖们要在整个体系中实施改革还是十分困难的。越南的权力分散状况要比邻近的中国更为严重，而商界与政界的既得利益群体对改革障碍更大。此外，中国共产党在让自己改造为常青藤联盟式的全国精英人士网络方面已经取得了一定成绩，但它的越南同志们似乎还在坚持旧日的方针。几十年前武装斗争的胜利赢来的正统地位已在遥远的记忆中逐渐淡漠，而越南领袖自诩善理经济的夸耀越来越站不住脚了。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65982-1-1.html 译者：悠悠万事97

[2012.03.31]Falklands war: Short, victorious war 福克兰战爭30周年祭 Thirty years after the Falklands war 福克兰群岛之战30周年祭

Short, victorious war 短暂的战争，胜利的战争

On April 2nd 1982 Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.The war Britain fought to recover them still colours domestic politics 1982年4月2日，阿根廷军队入侵福克兰群岛 [注1]。英国收复该群岛的战争至今仍影响着国内政治

Mar 31st 2012 | from the print edition

WHEN Adrian Mole, a fictional teenage diarist of the early 1980s, tells his father that the Falkland Islands have been invaded, Mr Mole shoots out of bed.He “thought the Falklands lay off the coast of Scotland”.That Britain still had sovereignty over a clutch of islands in the South Atlantic did, indeed, seem odd.Sending a naval task force 8,000 miles to fight for a thinly inhabited imperial relic seemed odder still.In some ways the conflict has come to seem even stranger since 1982.Yet for all its eccentricity, the Falklands campaign still shapes the politics of Britain.上世纪80年代初，虚构的日记主人公，少年安德里安?摩尔（Adrian Mole）告诉他父亲，福克兰群岛遭到入侵，老摩尔当即从床上一跃而起。他“还以为福克兰群岛在苏格兰沿海呢。”英国仍在南大西洋上拥有一群岛屿的主权，这看上去的确古怪。派遣一支海军特遣队奔袭8000英里（1英里约为1.6公里，译者注），为一处没多少居民的日不落帝国遗物而战，这件事看上去还更为古怪。自1982年以来，从某些方面来说，这一冲突似乎变得更加古怪了。尽管有这么多奇异之处，福克兰群岛战争仍然对英国政治有极大影响。

Among historians, the main debates about the war’s legacy concern Mrs Thatcher and her Conservative government.Could she have survived as prime minister had the Falklands not been retaken?(In her memoirs, she says not.)Would the Tories have won the 1983 election had Argentina never invaded?(Probably.)But the conflict also changed attitudes to foreign policy and war itself.史学家对这次战争遗留问题的主要争论与撒切尔夫人和她的保守党政府有关。如果英国未能夺回群岛，撒切尔能否保住她的首相职位？（她在自己的回忆录中说不能。）如果阿根廷从未入侵，保守党能否赢得1983年的大选？（或许可以。）但这次冲突也改变了人们对外交政策和战争本身的态度。

The dash across the Atlantic and subsequent victory—almost as much of a surprise to many Britons as they were to the Argentines—seemed to mark an end to Britain’s apparently inevitable international decline, a retreat epitomized by the Suez debacle of 1956.After the 1970s, a decade in which, Europe aside, British leaders had mostly been preoccupied with domestic woes—recession;industrial unrest;an IMF bail-out—the Falklands made foreign affairs, and Britain’s clout in the world, measures of successful leadership.That has remained the case ever since.横跨大西洋的远征以及随之而来的胜利不但让阿根廷人吃惊，也几乎同样让许多英国人吃惊。以1956年苏伊士运河败退 [注]为缩影，英国的国际地位看上去每况愈下；这次胜利似乎标志着这一状况的结束。不算欧洲，上世纪70年代是英国领袖主要考虑国内灾难的十年，其中包括经济衰退、工人罢工、国际货币基金组织的拯救行动等。此后的福克兰群岛战争使外交事务以及英国的国际势力变成了衡量英国领导人是否成功的标准。这一点直到今天依然如此。

And if Britain took more notice of the world after the Falklands, the reverse was true, too.“Everywhere I went after the war,” Lady Thatcher(as she later became)wrote in her memoirs, “Britain’s name meant something more than it had.” Oleg Gordievsky, a KGB officer stationed in London in 1982 who subsequently defected, remembers that the KGB confidently expected Britain to lose.如果说英国从福克兰群岛战争后更多地关注世界事务，这次战争也使世界更多地关注英国。后来受封为女勋爵的撒切尔在她的回忆录里写道：“在那次战争之后，无论我走到哪里，英国的名声都比过去更管用了。”一位1982年被派驻伦敦但后来投诚的克格勃官员奥列格?高蒂夫斯基（Oleg Gordievsky）还记得，克格勃曾非常有信心地等着看英国的笑话。

Glory days 光荣的日子

As Hew Strachan of Oxford University puts it, America’s experience in Vietnam had made war seem messy and unpredictable.Lady Thatcher’s victory suggested that war could achieve political ends quickly and efficiently.Where a knee-jerk antimilitarism had once prevailed, Britain’s armed forces came to seem noble and professional: the “best in the world”, as British politicians’ constant refrain has it.正如牛津大学的修?斯特拉臣（Hew Strachan）所述，美国在越南的经历让人觉得战争肮脏而且无法预测。撒切尔夫人的胜利告诉人们：战争可以迅速、有效地完成政治目的。英国曾经是一个自然而然地普遍反战的国家，但这一次它的武装力量看上去崇高而又称职，似乎就像英国政治家们不断重复的赞美那样，是“世界上最优秀的。”

In 1982 the campaign looked like a strategic blip.The main job, during the cold war, was to defend Europe from the Soviet Union.In retrospect, observes Mr Strachan, it was the first in a series of short, sharp, expeditionary wars that Britain was to fight: later came the first Gulf war, Kosovo and the intervention in Sierra Leone.Consciously or otherwise, the triumph in the South Atlantic may have affected Britain’s appetite for those engagements.这次战争在1982年看上去像一次临时的战略转变，因为冷战时期西方的主要任务是保卫欧洲不受苏联侵略。斯特拉臣认为：现在回头看，那是英国参加的一系列短暂、激烈的远征战事的第一次，后来有第一次海湾战争、科索沃战争和对塞拉利昂（Sierra Leone）的干预。无论英国是否有所意识，南大西洋的胜利可能让它参与这些战争的胃口大开。

That run ended in Afghanistan and Iraq—missions that have involved elusive opponents, changing rationales and disappointingly uncertain outcomes.Little wonder that the Falklands war—which was fought against a state, for a simple cause and to a swift and absolute victory—still inspires pride and nostalgia in Britain.这种状况在阿富汗和伊拉克结束。那里的作战牵涉到难以捉摸的对手、不断变化的战场基本状况和极其未定的结局。因此，对抗一个国家、有明确的目标、迅速取得了压倒性胜利的福克兰群岛战争到今天还鼓舞着英国的自豪感和怀念心情，这也就不足为奇了。

Perhaps its most tangible impact has been on defence spending.Because of the war, the navy was protected from cuts for much longer than it would otherwise have been.Today the government estimates the cost of its commitment to the islands, including its garrison and air and sea links to Britain, as ￡200m($318m)a year.或许这场战争最让人感觉得到的影响是对防务费用的冲击。如果没有它，缩减海军预算的进程会提前许多。政府估计它今天在福克兰群岛投入的年费用为2亿英镑（3.18亿美元），其中包括驻守当地的卫戌部队和维持英国本土与它的空中与海上联系的花销。

The navy now finds itself temporarily without an aircraft-carrier, which has led to febrile speculation that, if lost, the islands could not be retaken.That is scaremongering, for two reasons.First, as Sir Lawrence Freedman, the war’s official historian, summarises, Britain would indeed struggle to recover the islands if they were overrun again—but defending them in the first place would be much easier, because of the men and kit now deployed there.海军在一段时间内将没有航空母舰服役，这让有些人头脑发热地猜测：一旦失守，英国将无力夺回福克兰群岛。出于两个原因，这种说法纯属危言耸听。首先，如该次战争的官方史学家劳伦斯?弗里德曼（Lawrence Freedman）勋爵所总结的那样，如果福克兰群岛再次被占领，收复它们的确不易；但若专注于保卫群岛则会容易许多，因为部队与装备已经部署在那里了。

Second, Argentina does not want to repeat the war, which triggered the end of military dictatorship and the advent of democracy.Subsequent governments have, however, retained their country’s claim to what Argentines call “Las Malvinas”.Cristina Fernández, Argentina’s president, has forsworn force as a tactic;yet as the 30th anniversary of the invasion approaches, she has energetically pressed the case by other means(in a bid, some argue, to distract voters’ attention from high inflation and other economic woes).其次，阿根廷并不想再次发动战争。上次战争导致军事独裁政权的垮台与民主政治的到来，但此后的各届政府都继续声称阿根廷对他们所说的“马尔维纳斯群岛”拥有主权。阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜?费尔南德斯（Cristina Fernández）曾发誓放弃考虑武力；而在入侵30周年即将到来之际，她积极地以其他手段在此问题上施压。有人认为，此举是为了转移选民对高通胀与其他经济灾难的关注。

Recent steps by her administration have been designed to impede tourism—along with fishing, a mainstay of the islands’ economy—and even Argentina’s overall trade with Britain.In that context, the friendly inducements she occasionally dangles before the 3,000 islanders don’t wash.“Everything they’ve done makes us deeply suspicious of everything they’ve offered us,” says Dick Sawle, a member of the Falklands’ legislative assembly.Ms Fernández has striven to enlist other governments in the region to her niggly campaign—likely to intensify if oil is produced in the islands’ waters.Rockhopper, an energy firm, found oil offshore in 2010, and says it expects to start production in 2016.她的政府最近设计采取的步骤是妨碍该群岛的旅游业和渔业，后者是群岛的经济支柱。他们甚至不惜损害阿根廷与英国的整体贸易。在这种情况下，她偶尔友好地对3000岛民伸出的诱惑橄榄枝没有说服力。“福克兰群岛立法议会”成员迪克?索尔（Dick Sawle）说：“他们的所作所为让我们对他们向我们提出的一切建议都深感怀疑。”费尔南德斯努力争取让该地区其他国家政府参与她的找茬攻势；这一攻势在该群岛海域出产石油后可能会进一步加强。2010年，一家能源公司，洛克霍普公司（Rockhopper）在该岛近海发现了石油；据该公司称，正式开采预计将于2016年开始。

For its part, the British government says it is absolutely committed to the islanders’ right of self-determination.They overwhelmingly wish to stay British, a desire that is the basis of the British claim to sovereignty.Compromise would anyway be impossible while the war is a living memory: polls suggest that public opinion in mainland Britain is firmly against any concession.Jeremy Browne, the Foreign Office minister responsible for Falklands policy, doubts that, say, Brazil or Uruguay has much interest in a regional economic blockade of the islands.He thinks Argentina would be overreaching if it tried to organise one.That may prove optimistic, especially if an oil bonanza stimulates wider Latin American resource nationalism.英国政府方面声称，它完全尊重群岛岛民的自决权。占压倒多数的岛民希望继续保持英国公民身份，这一意愿是英国声称拥有该群岛主权的基础。在人们对战争记忆犹新的时刻，妥协无论如何也是不可能的：民调显示，英国本土公众舆论坚决反对任何让步。负责福克兰群岛政策的外交国务大臣杰里米?布朗（Jeremy Browne, the Foreign Office minister）不觉得诸如巴西或乌拉圭一类国家会对地区性封锁该群岛经济有多大兴趣。他认为，阿根廷组织这样封锁的结果只有因不自量力而失败。这话可能过于乐观，特别当庞大的石油贮藏刺激了更广泛的拉丁美洲资源民族主义的时候。

Mr Browne observes that tension over the Falklands has not followed a straight path: it is worse now than it was 15 years ago.The same may be true of the war’s emotional impact.Britain’s current leaders, who are mostly in their 40s, reached political consciousness in the early 1980s;the Tory half of the coalition, at least, reveres Lady Thatcher.Their views on the Falklands are noticeably firm.The war’s impact on Argentina was much more dramatic.But, quietly and enduringly, it left its mark on Britain, too.布劳恩注意到，福克兰群岛的局势紧张并非单向发展：现在的局势比15年前更为紧张。战争造成的情感冲击可能也是如此。当今英国的领袖们大多40多岁，他们在上世纪80年代初开始有政治意识；至少联合政府中的保守党成员尊敬撒切尔夫人。他们在福克兰群岛问题上的观点显然十分坚定。这次战争对阿根廷的冲击更加戏剧性得多，但它也静悄悄地在英国留下了持久的影响。

[注]1956年的苏伊士败退：1956年埃及政府宣布将苏伊士运河收归国有，造成英法两国与以色列不满。三国出兵进攻埃及，但在国际社会包括美国与苏联的强大压力之下被迫退兵。该危机直接导致英国艾登政府下台。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65944-1-1.html 译者：nayilus

[2012.03.30]Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商 Hong Kong tycoons under arrest 被拘捕的香港富商

Flying too close to the Sun? 亢龙有悔？

Mar 30th 2012, 2:38 by J.M.| BEIJING and S.C.| HONG KONG

It’s a long way down from the 102nd floor of the International Commerce Centre in Hong Kong, where Analects once enjoyed a really high tea(see picture).But the dizziness you feel looking out of the window cannot compare with the vertiginous sensation the building’s owners, Sun Hung Kai Properties, must now be feeling.Their co-chairmen, Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong and Raymond Kwok Ping-luen were arrested on March 29th by Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption(ICAC)under the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance.So too was a former head of Hong Kong’s civil service, Rafael Hui.The arrests are widely seen as among the most sensational in the commission’s 38-year history.笔者曾在香港环球贸易广场的第102层喝过一次午茶，从102楼到地面的距离可不是开玩笑（见图）。你从窗户望出去会感觉到一阵头晕，但是这和该大楼的所有者新鸿基地产3月29日的感觉相比只是小巫见大巫。那天，新鸿基的双董事长郭炳江和郭炳联被香港廉政公署以违反《防止贿赂条例》拘捕。同样被拘捕的还有前政务司司长许仕仁。这一事件被广泛看成是香港廉政公署38年历史上最轰动的一次拘捕。

The ICAC is, as usual, saying extremely little about the case, which involves one of Hong Kong’s wealthiest families.Sun Hung Kai’s buildings include the three tallest in Hong Kong.But the investigation will generate enormous media interest.The Kwok family has long been a topic of much gossip in the territory because of feuding among its members.In addition there have been growing concerns in Hong Kong about the cosiness of relations between its leaders and business tycoons.Last month the ICAC launched an investigation into the behaviour of Hong Kong’s chief executive, Donald Tsang, because of hospitality he had received from wealthy businesspeople.This is the first action ever taken by the ICAC involving someone of his paramount rank.Mr Tsang denied breaking rules but apologised for failing to live up to public expectations.这桩案件涉及的是香港最富有家族之一，新鸿基地产旗下的产业包括香港最高的三座大楼，而廉政公署如往常一样几乎没有透露任何案情内容。虽然如此，案件调查还是会受到巨大的媒体关注。郭家因为其家族成员之间的内斗长久以来都是香港坊间八卦的话题。此外，香港人也越来越担忧其政治领导人和商业大亨之间往来过密。上个月香港特首曾荫权因为接受富商的招待而受到廉政公署的调查。这是廉政公署历史上第一次围绕香港最高官员开展行动。曾荫权否认自己违反了任何法规，但对于自己没有达到公众的期望这一点进行了道歉。

Public disquiet about the tycoons’ influence was evident during the recent competition to replace Mr Tsang, who completes his term of office at the end of June.A former civil-service chief, Henry Tang, was at one time thought to be China’s favourite for the job(an endorsement that carries enormous weight among the fewer than 1,200 members of the election committee).But public opinion turned against him, partly because of his tycoon background, forcing China to switch sides to Leung Chun-ying, a man with a more populist reputation who is regarded with some suspicion by the tycoons(see this analysis by Reuters of the political role of Hong Kong’s rich).曾荫权的任职将于6月底到期，从最近决定其继任的竞争中很明显可以看出公众对于富商的政治影响力感到不安。前政务司司长唐英年一度曾被看作是中央政府心目中的最佳人选（中央的支持对于人数不到1200人的选举委员会有举足轻重的影响）。但是在一定程度上因为其富商背景，他受到公众舆论的猛烈抨击，最终迫使中央不得不弃他转而支持梁振英。外界认为梁振英更具有民粹主义倾向，香港富商对他很不信任。（点击查看路透社关于香港富人政治角色的分析）

Online commentators in the rest of China are keenly watching the ICAC’s moves.For all the Hong Kong public’s worries about corruption, their counterparts elsewhere in the country have a good deal more to complain about.Even Chinese officials sometimes speak admiringly of the ICAC’s ability to operate without political interference and of Hong Kong officialdom’s relatively clean conduct.But the Communist Party has been reluctant to give anti-corruption institutions the same independent powers as the ICAC for fear of weakening the party’s authority and embarrassing its leaders.As we reported in Banyan this week, Bo Xilai, Chongqing’s recently deposed party chief, is alleged by party officials to have tried blocking a corruption investigation involving his family.It is widely believed, however, that the accusations being levelled against Mr Bo are themselves motivated as much if not more by political rivalry than by any wrongdoing.中国其它地方的网路评论员都在热切观望香港廉政公署的行动。虽然香港公众对于腐败非常担忧，大陆公众抱怨的腐败现象可比香港多多了。就算大陆官员偶尔也会对香港廉政公署能够不受政治干扰行事以及香港官场相对较为清廉这两点表示钦佩。但是中共目前为止还不太原意让大陆的反腐机构拥有香港廉政公署那样的独立权力，因为他们害怕这会削弱党的权威，也会让中共领导人尴尬。正如本周在Banyan专栏的报道所写那样，据党内官员所说，最近被撤职的重庆市委书记***曾试图压下一起涉及其家人的腐败调查。不过很多人相信在针对***指控的背后动机里，政治斗争占的分量至少要和任何实际错误占的分量一样大，甚至更大。

At an annual meeting of anti-corruption officials on March 26th, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, had little progress to point to.He said there were still frequent corruption cases “in departments that possess great power and in areas where the management of funds is centralised”.This was in spite of investigations last year into 2,524 officials at or above the rank of county leader, including seven minister-level officials(compared with 2,723 such officials investigated in 2010, including six of ministerial rank).“Corruption is the most crucial threat to the ruling party”, he said, repeating a well-worn line.3月26日在一年一度的廉政工作会议上，中国总理温家宝找不出反腐工作有任何显著进展。他提到腐败现象“在行政权力集中的部门和资金资源管理权集中的领域”还很常见。尽管去年一年因腐败查办的就有县处级以上官员2524人，包括省部级官员7人（相比之下，2010年查办的县处级以上官员是2723人，包括省部级官员6人），腐败问题仍然猖獗。温家宝总理又再次强调一句老话：“执政党最大危险是腐败。”

Some of China’s bolder media have dared to suggest the obvious.“If you think that China’s problem can be solved by holding a meeting and issuing a directive, you are cheating yourself and cheating others”, said a commentary in Shenzhen Evening News(here, in Chinese), a newspaper in the Chinese city that borders on Hong Kong.It said that among the many “simple” solutions would be to set up an ICAC.Shangdu.com, a web portal in the central province of Henan, published a commentary arguing much the same.It said Hong Kong’s ICAC enjoyed high public approval because it operated according to procedures over which the public had oversight.“Citizens all have the right to make those who violate the procedures, or fail to uphold them properly, pay the price”, it said(here, in Chinese).中国一些较大胆的媒体对这些人人心知肚明的事情也敢旁敲侧击了。和香港相邻的深圳市的一间报社《深圳晚报》发表了一篇评论，提道：“如果以为中国的问题开个会，发个通知就能解决，那真是自欺欺人”（点击见原文）。它提出很多“简单”的解决办法中的一条就是建立廉政公署。中部省份河南的一个网站商都网发表了一篇观点类似的评论。它认为香港廉政公署之所以受到公众高度支持是因为它是基于公众可以监督的程序运作的。文中提到“无论是违反制度者，还是制度执行不力者，公众都有权利让其付出代价”（点击见原文）。

Hong Kong’s citizens may sometimes moan that their democratic rights are stifled, but seen from the rest of China the territory remains a paragon of the rule of law.香港市民可能有时会埋怨一下他们的民主权利受到了抑制，但是从中国其它地方看来，香港还是一个法治的典范。

译者注

标题“too close to sun”是指希腊神话中伊卡洛斯用蜡制的翅膀飞翔，过于接近太阳蜡翼融化而落海身亡。作为比喻有行事超过一定尺度导致玩火自焚的意思，一定程度上接近中文的“亢龙有悔”。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65691-1-1.html 译者：nayilus

[2012.03.24]South China Sea: Full unclosure?南中国海地位未定？ South China Sea

南中国海波诡云谲

Full unclosure? 全然未定？

As oil-and-gas exploration intensifies, so does the bickering 在加紧勘探油气田的紧锣密鼓声中，争吵也同时加剧 Mar 24th 2012 | SINGAPORE | from the print edition

“THE South China Sea,” noted the People’s Daily this week, “is currently calm and peaceful”.As far as that goes, the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece was quite right.But the sea also remains in dispute, with China and five other countries having claims to some or all of its islands, rocks and waters.It is also a cause of superpower rivalry.America asserts its own “national interest” in the freedom of navigation in the sea, and, like the South-East Asian claimants to the sea, sees China as the threat.For that, the ambiguity that shrouds China’s own position has much to do with it.《人民日报》本周指出：“今天的南海风平浪静。”就目前情况而言，这份中共喉舌报纸所说无误。但南海问题仍有争议：中国与其他五国已对其一部分或全部岛屿、礁石与海域提出主权声索。这也是造成超级大国对抗的一个原因。美国声称，在该海域的航行自由关系到它的“国家利益”；而且它也和东南亚声索国一样，把中国视为威胁。中国对其本身立场的阐述不清与“威胁论”有很大关系。

The two most active disputes concern the right to exploration for what may be enormous reserves of hydrocarbons, making the sea such a prize.On March 15th Vietnam protested against an announcement by China’s state-owned offshore-oil company that it was seeking bids for the rights to drill in 19 blocks.Vietnam pointed out that one block was just one mile(1.6km)from an island in the Paracel chain, which Vietnam claims, having been evicted from there by China in 1974.争议最大的两处地点都与油气勘探权有关。该海域油气储备可能十分庞大，因此令各方看重。中国国企中海油对19个海域区块的钻探权招标，越南政府3月15日就此提出抗议，指出其中1个区块距离西沙群岛某岛只有1.6公里（1英里）；越南认为它对该岛拥有主权，但1974年中国占领该岛，驱逐了越南驻军。

Meanwhile, to the south, China itself has objected to plans by the Philippines to open areas in the Reed bank, off the island of Palawan, for oil-and-gas exploration.The Philippines claims the area as part of the “exclusive economic zone”(EEZ)attached to its main archipelago.同时，为勘探油气田，菲律宾计划开放南海南部巴拉望岛外礼乐滩的一些水域；中国反对此举。菲律宾声称该地区是与它的主要群岛相连的“专属经济区”（exclusive economic zone(EEZ)）的一部分。

The area falls within the “nine-dashed line”, dating to maps from the pre-Communist era in the late 1940s, that China says proves its sovereignty.That line, which has no basis in international law, is one reason other countries are so wary of China’s intentions.中国认为，在中共1949年掌权以前的地图上划有 “南海九段线”，这是它对该海域拥有主权的证明，而上述区域位于南海九段线之内。但这条线没有国际法依据，因此是其他国家提防中国的一个原因。

However, in this case, China does seem to be basing the claim on the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS).China(like Taiwan and Vietnam)also claims the entire Spratly archipelago.These are mainly tiny, uninhabitable rocks and islets which, under UNCLOS, would be entitled to “territorial waters” of just 12 nautical miles(22km).However, Robert Beckman, a professor of international law at the National University of Singapore, has pointed out that China could claim that some features near Reed bank qualify as “islands”, under UNCLOS, having their own full 200-mile EEZ, which would overlap with the Philippines’.但在这件事上，中国的立场似乎确实以《联合国海洋法公约》（United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS)）为依据。中国也与台湾和越南一样声称拥有整个南沙群岛的主权。按《联合国海洋法公约》规定，该群岛主要由无人居住的小礁石和小岛组成，只有12海里（22公里）领海权；但新加坡国立大学（National University of Singapore）国际法教授罗伯特?贝克曼（Robert Beckman）指出，中国可以声称，南沙群岛中距礼乐滩不远的一些地域有资格称为“岛”，因而按《联合国海洋法公约》规定有完整的200海里专属经济区，而这一专属经济区与菲律宾的专属经济区重叠。

If China were to limit itself to claims based on UNCLOS, things would be clearer.In this context, Taylor Fravel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has pointed to a seemingly encouraging statement from the Chinese foreign ministry in late February that “no country including China has claimed sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.”

如果中国把自己的声索限制在《联合国海洋法公约》的基础上，情况就会清楚些了。关于这一点，麻省理工学院的傅泰林（Taylor Fravel）认为，中国外交部发言人2月底的讲话似乎十分鼓舞人心：“没有任何国家包括中国对整个南海提出主权声索。”

This could be interpreted to mean that the nine-dashed line is not a claim to all the sea’s waters, simply to the land features.But it does not quite say so—after all, the line does not encompass all of the South China Sea, just nearly all.这可以解释为，南海九段线并非声索南海全部海域，而只声索地域。但对此中国并未明言——说到底，这条线虽然几乎包围了整个南海，但却并非全部。

With the Philippines, China does seem to be taking a somewhat softer line, pushing the possibility of joint oil-and-gas development.And the People’s Daily was keen to blame America for any tension in the sea.It was responding to a press conference by General Burton Field, the commander of American forces in Japan, at which he called on China to respect the freedom of navigation.中国对菲律宾的态度似乎不算强硬，还向它推销联合开发油气田的主张。但《人民日报》热衷于将这一区域的任何摩擦归罪于美国。它回敬了驻日美军司令博尔顿?菲尔德（Burton Field）将军在记者招待会上呼吁中国“尊重航行自由”的说法。

The People’s Daily, rightly again, argued that this is not at present under threat.It had a point when it argued that America may be blurring the issues as part of its “return to Asia” strategy, which includes strengthening its ties with China’s neighbours.But for the uncomfortable realisation that this strategy has been broadly welcomed in the region, China has itself to blame.《人民日报》再次正确地指出，航行自由当前并未受到威胁。它认为美国故意混淆这些问题，可能是它 “重返亚洲”战略的一步棋；该战略包括加强它与中国的邻国之间的关系。这一说法也很有道理。但这一战略在该地区受到广泛支持，这种局面令中国不舒服，但有些地方也怪它自己。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65573-1-1.html 译者：悠悠万事97

[2012.03.24]Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退却

Revolution in retreat 古巴革命正在退却

Under Raúl Castro, Cuba has begun the journey towards capitalism.But it will take a decade and a big political battle to complete, writes Michael Reid 在劳尔?卡斯特罗的领导下，古巴已经开始向资本主义转变。但完成这个转变需要十年的时间和剧烈的政治斗争。（迈克尔?里德）

WHEN ON JULY 31st 2006 Cuban state television broadcast a terse statement from Fidel Castro to say that he had to undergo emergency surgery and was temporarily handing over to his brother, Raúl(pictured with Fidel, left), it felt like the end of an era.The man who had dominated every aspect of life on the island for almost half a century seemed to be on his way out.In the event Fidel survived, and nothing appeared to change.Even so, that July evening marked the start of a slow but irreversible dismantling of communism(officially, “socialism”)in one of the tiny handful of countries in which it survived into the 21st century.2006年7月31日，古巴国家电视台播放了菲德尔?卡斯特罗的一个简短声明，声明说，他必须接受紧急手术，他的弟弟劳尔将暂时代理他的职务。这使人们感觉像是一个时代的结束，这位支配这个岛国近半个世纪的人看来正在离开历史舞台。后来菲德尔恢复了健康，看起来什么也没有改变。即便如此，那个7月的夜晚还是标志了古巴共产主义（正式称谓是“社会主义”）开始了缓慢但不可逆转的瓦解过程。古巴是少数几个在21世纪仍然存活的社会主义国家之一。

Raúl Castro, who formally took over as Cuba’s president in February 2008 and as first secretary of the Communist Party in April 2011, is trying to revive the island’s moribund economy by transferring a substantial chunk of it from state to private hands, with profound social and political implications.He has abolished a few of the many petty restrictions that pervade Cubans’ lives.He has also freed around 130 political prisoners.His government has signed the UN covenants on human rights, something his brother had jibbed at for three decades.Repression has become less brutal, though two prisoners have died on hunger strikes.Cubans grumble far more openly than they used to, and academic debate has become a bit freer.But calls for democracy and free elections are still silenced.The Communist Party remains the only legal political party in Cuba.And Raúl Castro has repeatedly dashed the hopes of many Cubans that the hated exit visa, which makes it hard(and for some, impossible)to leave the country, will be scrapped.劳尔?卡斯特罗于2008年2月正式接任古巴总统，2011年4月接任共产党第一书记。他为了重振这个岛国濒危的经济，正在把相当一部分国有企业转变为私人所有，这个举措具有深远的社会和政治意义。他放松了在古巴人生活中无处不在的各种限制，释放了约一百三十名政治犯。他的政府签署了联合国人权公约，这是他哥哥踌躇了三十年都没有做的事情。尽管最近有两名犯人因绝食而死，但镇压手段已经不像过去那样残酷了。古巴人现在可以比过去更为公开地发牢骚，学术争论的空气也比过去自由一点儿。但是，要求民主和自由选举的呼声仍然受到压制，共产党仍然是古巴唯一的合法政党。古巴现行的出境签证制度遭人痛恨，因为它使出国非常困难，有些人甚至完全出不了国，但劳尔?卡斯特罗一再拒绝了改变这个制度的要求。

The economic reforms, set out in 313 “guidelines” approved by a Communist Party congress in April 2011, are being implemented slowly and with great caution.That is because they face stubborn resistance from within the party and the bureaucracy.Indeed, the leadership shuns the word “reform”, let alone “transition”.Those terms are contaminated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, an event that still traumatises Cuba’s leaders.Officially, the changes are described as an “updating” in which “non-state actors” and “co-operatives” will be promoted.But whatever the language, this means an emerging private sector.在2011年的共产党代表大会上，通过了实行经济改革的313条“指导方针”，现在改革正在缓慢地、极为谨慎地进行着，因为它受到来自党内和官僚基层的顽强抵抗。事实上，领导层避免使用“改革”这个词，更不要说“转型”了，因为这些词语与苏联的崩溃相联系，而古巴领导人仍然没有从苏联崩溃的伤痛中恢复过来。在官方语言中，目前的变化，包括促进“非国有部门”和“集体所有”部门的发展，都被称为“更新”。但是不管怎样用词，私人经济部门事实上正在兴起。

The new president often says his aim is to “make socialism sustainable and irreversible”.The economy will continue to be based on planning, not the market, and “the concentration of property” will be prohibited, Raúl Castro insisted in a speech to the National Assembly in December 2010.He is careful not to contradict his elder brother openly: his every speech contains several reverential quotes from Fidel, who despite his semi-retirement is consulted about big decisions.(For brevity and clarity this report will refer to each Castro brother by his first name.)新总统经常说，他的目的是“使社会主义保持活力和不可动摇“。在2010年12月的全国代表大会上，劳尔?卡斯特罗说，经济仍然建立在计划基础上而不是市场基础上，并且不容许“财产的集中化”。他很注意不表现出和他哥哥有任何不一致之处：他的每次讲话都要虔诚地引用菲德尔的语录。虽然菲德尔已经半退休了，但做出重大决定前仍要征求他的意见。（为了简洁和清晰，本报告将省略这兄弟两人的姓氏，使用各自的名字以示区别。）

Fidel’s frail and ghostly presence in his compound in Siboney, a leafy enclave of mansions on Havana’s western outskirts, doubtless checks the speed of reform.But he no longer controls the levers of power and rarely comments on domestic politics.菲德尔在斯伯尼的住宅是在哈瓦那西郊一个林荫浓密的院落内，他虽然身体虚弱，极少露面，但他的存在本身无疑限制了改革的速度。不过他已不再掌控权力，也很少对国内事务发表意见。

This special report will argue that whatever the intentions of Cuba’s Communist leaders, they will find it impossible to prevent their island from moving to some form of capitalism.What is harder to predict is whether they will remain in control of the process of change, or whether it will lead to democracy.我们将在本报告[注1]中论证，不管古巴共产党的意图是什么，他们已不可能阻止这个岛国走向某种形式的资本主义。难以预测的只有两个问题：他们是否能持续控制变化的进程；这种变化是否会带来民主。

No turning back this time When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, many outsiders believed that communism in Cuba was doomed.Massive Soviet subsidies and military aid for Cuba had offset the economic embargo imposed by the United States in 1960.By the 1970s they had also brought stability after Fidel had all but bankrupted the island by his manic shifts from forced industrialisation back to exaggerated reliance on sugar, the economy’s mainstay since colonial days.The overnight withdrawal of Soviet subsidies and trade links caused Cuba’s economy to contract by 35% between 1989 and 1993(see chart 1).目前的改革不可逆转

当苏联于1991年崩溃时，很多人认为共产主义在古巴的前途暗淡了。自美国于1960年开始对古巴实行经济封锁以来，苏联提供的巨额补贴和军援抵消了封锁的影响。在上世纪七十年代，菲德尔放弃了强制工业化进程，转而完全依赖自殖民时代就是古巴经济主体的蔗糖业，使这个岛国濒临破产边缘，也是苏联的援助维持了古巴的稳定。苏联一夜之间停止了援助和贸易关系，使古巴的经济从1989到1993年间缩水了35%（见图1）。

In response, Fidel declared a national emergency, dubbed “The Special Period in Peacetime”.He opened the island to foreign investment and mass tourism and legalised small family businesses and the use of the dollar.But then he found a new benefactor in Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, who began to provide Cuba with cheap oil.A big chunk of that is officially counted as a swap of oil for the services of some 20,000 Cuban doctors, sports instructors and security advisers working in Venezuela.China, too, emerged as a new source of credit.为了对付这个局面，菲德尔宣布国家处于紧急状态，他称之为“和平时期的特殊阶段”。他为外国投资打开了门户，开启了规模巨大的旅游业，使小家庭企业和美元流通合法化。但是不久，委内瑞拉的胡戈?查韦斯成了新的援助者，他给古巴提供了廉价的石油。作为交换，大约两万名古巴医生、体育教员和安全专家在委内瑞拉工作，支付了石油价值的一大步部分。中国也成为贷款的来源之一。

Thus bolstered, Fidel reversed course again.Many family businesses, as well as some foreign ventures, were shut down;the dollar ceased to be legal tender in 2004.The ageing leader launched “the Battle of Ideas”, sending out armies of youths as ill-trained teachers and social workers.委内瑞拉和中国的帮助给古巴打了强心针，菲德尔再次扭转方向。很多家庭企业和一些外国投资项目被关闭，美元流通也在2004年又成为非法。年迈的菲德尔发起了“为理想而奋斗”运动，把大批缺乏训练的年轻人送去做教师和社会工作者。

This time, Raúl has insisted, there will be no turning back: the reforms will happen sin prisa, pero sin pausa(slowly but steadily).But Raúl is no liberal.He and Ernesto “Che” Guevara, the Argentine adventurer who died in Bolivia in 1967, were the orthodox Marxists among the leaders of Fidel’s Rebel Army, the ragtag band of bearded guerrillas who toppled the corrupt, American-backed dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista.As defence minister from 1959 to 2008, Raúl set up and led Cuba’s formidable armed forces.劳尔说，这次的改革不会逆转了：改革将缓慢但稳步地展开。但劳尔并不是一个自由主义者。他和1967年死于玻利维亚的阿根廷冒险家埃内斯托?“切”?格瓦拉一样，是菲德尔的反叛军领导者中的正统马克思主义者。这个反叛军是由一群衣衫褴褛、留着大胡子的游击队员组成的，他们推翻了美国人支持的、腐败的富尔亨西奥?巴蒂斯塔的独裁统治。从1959到2008年，作为国防部长，劳尔创建并领导了古巴的强大武装力量。

When Raúl took over from Fidel, he moved slowly at first, amid factional fighting.To general surprise, the men who lost out in 2009 were Carlos Lage, who had run the economy since the Special Period and was seen as a reformer, and Felipe Pérez Roque, the young foreign minister.They were denounced for having criticised the Castros(Mr Lage was caught on tape describing the leadership as “living fossils”)and for having been corrupted by power.Instead, José Ramón Machado Ventura, an 81-year-old Stalinist, was named as Raúl’s deputy.劳尔接替菲德尔之后，在派别斗争的漩涡中，他一开始采取了缓慢推进的策略。出乎人们意料的是，在2009年有两个人在派别斗争中失势；一个是卡洛斯拉格，他自菲德尔的“特殊阶段”开始就掌管经济事务，并被人看作是一个改革者；另一个是年轻的外长菲利普?佩雷斯?洛克。他们被指控曾经批评卡斯特罗兄弟（拉格先生说领导人是“活化石”时被人录了像）而且被权力所腐蚀。此外，81岁的斯大林主义者何塞?拉蒙被任命为劳尔的副手。

But Raúl also quietly discarded nearly all of Fidel’s ministers and key aides.Their replacements are mostly army officers.Rafael Hernández, an academic who edits Temas, a quarterly journal attached to the culture ministry, points out that many of them are engineers by profession.然而劳尔也悄悄地摆脱了菲德尔的几乎所有部长和关键助手，接替他们的大多数是军队官员。文化部下属季刊《Temas》编辑、学者拉斐尔?赫尔南德斯指出，这些官员大多数有工程专业背景。

Fidel ruled Cuba through the unbridled exercise of his massive ego.He centralised all power in his own hands, imposed Utopian egalitarianism and performed frequent policy swerves.By all accounts, Raúl is more modest, by nature a delegator and team-builder, more interested in getting things done than making speeches.When he took over in 2006 he put an end to the 4am meetings his brother loved.He is the Sancho Panza to Fidel’s Don Quijote(they even look the parts).劳尔统治古巴的方式体现了他极度自负的性格。他把所有的权力都集中到自己手里，奉行乌托邦式的平均主义，政策变化无常。尽管如此，劳尔仍然是比较温和的。从特性上说，他是一个善于分权和发挥团队作用的领导人，着重于做事而不是演讲。在2006年上任后，他取消了菲德尔喜欢的早晨四点钟举行会议的惯例。他是桑丘潘沙，菲德尔是唐吉坷德（他们两人甚至长得像这两个角色）。[注2]

Raúl seems to be acutely conscious that Cuban communism is living on borrowed time.The economy is grossly unproductive.Venezuelan aid in 2008 was offset by devastating hurricanes and the knock-on effects of the global financial crisis on Cuba’s tourism and trade.The country is running down its capital, but living standards remain frugal.Its famed social services are no longer affordable.The population is shrinking.Mr Chávez, its Venezuelan patron, is being treated for cancer and faces a close election in October.And the Cuban leadership is gerontocratic: Fidel is 85, Raúl is 80 and the average age of the Politburo is over 70.The históricos, as those who fought in the revolution are known, are dying off.With Mr Lage gone, they have no visible successors.Raúl’s opportunity to institutionalise the system has come very late in the day.“We either rectify things, or we run out of time to carry on skirting the abyss *and+we sink,” he warned in his December 2010 speech.劳尔看起来充分意识到古巴共产主义的时间非常紧迫。经济完全缺乏效率。2008年委内瑞拉的援助被灾难性的飓风和全球金融危机对古巴旅游业和贸易的打击所抵消。国家的资金迅速缩水，但人民生活水准依然低下。古巴著名的社会服务已经入不敷出。人口也在减少。她的资助者、委内瑞拉的查韦斯先生正接受癌症治疗，而且面临着将于十月份举行的势均力敌的大选。此外，古巴政治是老人政治：菲德尔85岁，劳尔89岁，政治局的平均年龄是70多岁。那些1959年革命的参加者正在陆续离开人世。在拉格先生被解职后，他们没有明显的继任者。劳尔进行制度性变革的机会来得太晚了。他在2010年12月的讲话中说：“我们或者是进行变革，或者是失去跳过深渊的时机而从此沉没。”

-------------------------[注1]本文是《经济学人》3月24日期关于古巴的七篇系列报告的第一篇。[注2]桑丘潘沙和唐吉坷德是小说《唐吉坷德》中的两个主要人物，前者是后者的随从。http://ecocn.org/thread-65453-1-1.html 译者：西米

[2012.03.24]Adagio, OPERA 悠着点，OPERA Neutrinos 中微子

Adagio, OPERA 悠着点，OPERA

An experiment clocks neutrinos at their expected clip—ie, not faster than light 一项实验检测了中微子的速度，结果符合预想；也就是说并未超过光速

Mar 24th 2012 | from the print edition

FOUR weeks ago researchers at the OPERA collaboration, in Italy, discovered a glitch that may account for their startling finding last September that elusive particles called neutrinos move faster than light, in flagrant disregard of Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity.Now the first crosscheck from a rival experiment seems to vindicate the overwhelming majority of physicists who were convinced all along that an error must have crept in to OPERA’s analysis.On March 16th members of the ICARUS collaboration posted a paper on arXiv, an online repository, which reports that neutrinos they looked at are not travelling faster than light.4周前，意大利的OPERA合作（OPERA collaboration）团队的研究人员发现了一个仪器有点问题，这或许可以解释他们去年9月震惊一时的发现：一种名为中微子的诡秘粒子居然违反了阿尔伯特?爱因斯坦的相对论，速度超过了光速。现在，同行的另一实验第一次核查了结果，似乎证实了绝大多数物理学家一直确信的情况：在OPERA的研究中一定发生了什么失误。3月16日，ICARUS合作团队的成员在网上智库arXiv上贴出了一篇论文，宣称他们追踪的中微子的速度并未超过光速。

Both OPERA and ICARUS study neutrinos sent from Europe’s main particle-physics laboratory, CERN.The particles are created in one of CERN’s accelerators, located just outside Geneva, and travel through the Earth’s crust to a laboratory beneath Gran Sasso, a mountainous massif in the Apennines.ICARUS’s measurements, all seven of them(not bad, given neutrinos’ unwillingness to interact with anything, including detectors), were taken at the end of last year, after the beam had been tweaked to improve the accuracy of the data.OPERA和ICARUS团队都在研究从欧洲主要的粒子物理实验室CERN中发出的中微子。这些粒子是在CERN在日内瓦郊外的一台加速器中产生的，它们穿过地壳，到达阿尔卑斯山脉格兰萨索（Gran Sasso）群峰地层之下的另一个实验室。ICARUS团队的全部七次检测都是在中微子束经过改进从而提高了数据精度之后，于去年年底进行的。中微子惰性很强，与任何事物包括检测器都很少有相互作用，所以能有七次成功的实验算是很不错的了。

OPERA, too, tapped the modified beam, but reported in November that its un-Einsteinian result persisted.But then, on February 23rd, its researchers owned up to discovering what could be a source of experimental error in the Global Positioning System(GPS)signals used to synchronise atomic clocks at either end of the neutrino beam.Specifically, it concerns the optical-fibre connector that brings the GPS signal to OPERA’s master clock.This, the OPERA team said, may not have been functioning properly when the measurements were taken.OPERA团队同样用经过改进的中微子束进行实验，但他们去年11月再次报告了与爱因斯坦理论相悖的结果。后来，今年2月23日，该团队的研究人员承认，他们用以使中微子束两端的原子钟同步的全球定位系统（GPS）信号中发现了可能导致实验误差的来源。具体地说，这与将GPS信号传输到OPERA主时钟的光纤连接器有关。OPERA团队认为，该连接器可能在他们进行实验时工作不正常。

According to an anonymous leak published on the website of Science magazine, after tightening the connection and then measuring the time it takes data to travel the length of the fibre, the researchers found that the data arrive 60 nanoseconds earlier.That is precisely the time by which neutrinos appeared to have overtaken light on their 730km(450-mile)trip.据在《科学》杂志网站上匿名贴出的一则泄露报告称，把接头拧紧后再行测试，研究人员发现，数据通过光纤全长的时间缩短了60毫微秒。这正是中微子在其730公里（450英里）的行程中好像比光提前到达的时间。

However, in February OPERA still seemed to be hedging its bets.Its researchers pointed to a second potential source of error which, if confirmed, would actually reinforce its surprise result.(This was related to a device called an oscillator, used to provide the time stamps needed to synchronise the clocks at CERN and Gran Sasso.)ICARUS’s findings now make that much less likely.但2月份OPERA团队似乎还未放弃赌注。该团队的研究人员指出了第二个可能的误差来源，如经证实，它实际上可以强化他们的爆炸性结果。（这一误差来源与一种名为振荡器的装置有关，这一装置为CERN与格兰萨索实验室中的原子钟提供同步所需的时间标识。）ICARUS团队的发现令这一可能性大为减小。

Sergio Bertolucci, CERN’s research director, stresses that throughout the superluminal saga OPERA’s researchers have behaved with “perfect scientific integrity”.They have opened their methods and data to scrutiny and invited independent measurements.The superluminal jolt spurred physicists to action.“This is how science works,” Dr Bertolucci says.CERN的研究主任萨尔吉奥?贝尔托卢奇（Sergio Bertolucci）强调，在整个超光速问题的探讨过程中，OPERA的研究人员表现出了“完美的科学诚信”。他们公开了他们的研究方法和数据供人们仔细检查，并鼓励他人的独立实验。超光速造成的震撼让物理学家振奋，并投入了进一步工作。“科学工作就该如此，”贝尔托卢奇博士这样说。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65447-1-1.html 译者：悠悠万事97

[2012.03.17]Afghanistan: The lowered bar still looks high 难以逾越的障碍 Afghanistan 阿富汗

The lowered bar still looks high 两国消除了部分隔阂，但障碍似乎仍难以逾越

A random massacre knocks even more confidence in the Western strategy 一次意外的屠杀事件进一步损害了外界对西方战略的信任 Mar 17th 2012 | KABUL | from the print edition

WESTERN ambitions in Afghanistan have shrunk to a level so modest, they hardly seem commensurate with the investment of blood and treasure.This week, immediately before talks with President Barack Obama that were dominated by the war, David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister, defined “doing the job” in Afghanistan as leaving the country “looking after its own security, not being a haven for terror, without the involvement of foreign troops.” That does not seem too much to ask.Democracy, women’s rights, even political stability: all these are now at best subsidiary parts of a job that has consumed the past decade.At present the campaign involves a NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, ISAF, of 130,000 soldiers, 90,000 of them American.西方目前在阿富汗想达到的战略目标是如此有限，与遭受的人员伤亡及投入资金极不相称。本周，就在与奥巴马总统举行主要讨论阿富汗战争的会谈前不久，英国首相大卫-卡梅伦将在阿富汗 “执行任务”定义为：让阿富汗“在没有外国军队协助的情况下，自己能够胜任安保工作、不再是恐怖分子的避风港”。这个要求似乎并不过分。民主、妇女权利甚至政治稳定：现在充其量只能算是西方在阿富汗开展行动（已经持续了十年）的次要目标。目前，在阿富汗执行任务的是一支由北约领导的国际安全援助部队（ISAF），该部队一共有13万名士兵，其中的9万人都来自美国。

In the early hours of March 11th one of those Americans apparently lost his mind and went on a murderous rampage in Kandahar province, killing 16 Afghans, including nine children, in their homes.After that, it is hard to dispel the notion that ISAF’s mission, even with its truncated objectives, is in serious trouble.As American soldiers and officials have been quick to point out, this was a freak if horrific incident.It could happen to any army anywhere.Yet it happened to NATO’s in Afghanistan, and not long after some of its soldiers had caused outrage by mindlessly burning copies of the Koran.Others had been filmed apparently urinating on the corpses of militants they had just killed.在3月11日早晨，一名据说丧失理智的美国士兵在坎大哈省闯入居民家中枪杀了16名阿富汗人，受害者当中有9名是儿童。这次事件发生以后，不得不让人产生一种感觉：虽然国际安全援助部队的任务目标已经缩减，但即使是要实现缩减后的目标现在也有大麻烦了。就像美国士兵及官员后来迅速指出的那样，这一事件虽然可怕但却反常。类似事件可能发生在全球各地的任何一支军队中。然而，在几名士兵无意中焚烧了《古兰经》导致阿富汗民众愤怒之后不久，驻阿富汗的北约军队就发生了这一事件。还有其他士兵被拍到似乎在他们之前刚杀死的武装分子的尸体上小便。

It all adds up to an abiding, albeit unfair, impression of an army that has lost both its discipline and its sense of purpose.Taliban and other insurgents use indiscriminate methods of slaughter and are responsible, according to the United Nations, for nearly four-fifths of civilian deaths.Even so, the Taliban accused “sick-minded American savages” of a “blood-soaked and inhumane crime”.尽管不太公平，但所有这些事件都更加让人觉得这支军队已经丧失了纪律与目标。据联合国称，阿富汗平民死亡人数中有五分之四都是由塔利班及其他武装分子发动袭击造成的，而且他们在袭击时不区分平民和军人。尽管如此，塔利班仍然谴责“神智错乱的残暴的美国人”犯下了“血腥的、不人道的罪行”。

Wrong place, wrong time 错误的地点，错误的时间

Worse, it happened in a district where ISAF had made some of its most intense efforts to win local trust.Panjwai, not far from Kandahar city, was a crucible of the Taliban movement in the 1990s and a centre of militant violence until the “surge” of foreign troops in 2009.After that, under Fazluddin Agha, a formidable local governor, security improved, and foreign money has been poured into opening schools and clinics.更糟的是，该事件发生在距坎大哈市不远的本杰瓦尔。国际安全援助部队（ISAF）尽了最大的努力试图赢得当地居民的信任。该地区在上世纪90年代是塔利班活动的中心；在2009年大量外国军队被派遣到这里之前是武装分子发动暴力袭击的中心。外国军队入驻之后，在一位强硬的当地长官Fazluddin Agha的治理下，该地区的安全状况有所改善，大量的外国资金投入到学校与诊所的建设当中。

Mr Agha was killed by a suicide-bomber in January, but his influence may help explain the relatively restrained reaction in Panjwai itself to the atrocity.Elsewhere, many Afghans seemed ready to believe that ISAF was lying: that the soldier had not acted alone, or had been drunk.And many would have seen similarities with ISAF’s much resented policy of “night raids”—the seizure and often killing of militants in private houses.But local Panjwai elders said that, rather than take to the streets in fury, people were ready to await the result of an investigation into the deaths.All the same, on March 13th the Taliban seized the chance to launch an attack on the government delegation coming to pay its respects to the dead.In another incident, an Afghan driver raced in a stolen vehicle towards 200 marines at a southern base, as the American defence secretary’s plane was landing there.The man later died of burns.Fazluddin Agha在一月份的一次自杀式炸弹袭击事件中丧生。本杰瓦尔惨案发生之后，当地居民表现得相对克制可能是因为这位已故长官的影响力仍然存在。在全国其他各地，许多阿富汗人似乎都认为国际安全援助部队在撒谎：枪击惨案的作案士兵不止一个人，作案者也并没有喝醉。许多人也看到了这次惨案与引起阿富汗人强烈不满的政策——“夜间袭击”——的相似之处：在这种突然袭击中，国际安全援助部队经常会闯入民宅击毙武装分子。但当地的老人说，相对于愤怒地走上街头抗议，他们正在等待这一惨案的调查结果。尽管如此，塔利班却利用这个机会，在3月13日向前去哀悼死者的政府代表团发动了袭击。在另外一起恐怖袭击事件中，一名阿富汗人驾驶一辆偷来的汽车朝南部一个基地中的200名海军士兵冲过去，当时美国国防部长的飞机刚降落。后来，袭击者死于烧伤。

What might most alarm ISAF’s commanders, however, is that the massacre seemed to cause the greatest shock abroad, coming on top of a steady stream of ISAF casualties, the angry protests provoked by the Koran-burning, and the temporary withdrawal of foreign advisers from Mr Karzai’s ministries after two of them were killed in Kabul last month.Together, it all adds to the picture of a war going awry.Opinion polls this week showed 54% of Americans in favour of pulling troops out of Afghanistan even before the Afghan army is ready to take over.Some 73% of Britons polled think the war cannot be “won”.然而，可能最让国际安全援助部队的长官们紧张的是这一屠杀事件在国外似乎也引起了极大的震动，甚至超过了国际安全援助部队自身不断遭受人员伤亡、驻阿士兵焚烧《古兰经》引发的愤怒抗议及在两名外国顾问于上个月被杀害以后从卡尔扎伊的政府部门中暂时撤回顾问人员引起的反应。所有这些都让民众更加觉得战争已经越来越偏离其本来的目的。本周进行的民调显示，有54%的美国人甚至支持在阿富汗军队做好接手国内安保工作的准备之前就从阿富汗撤军。接受调查的英国民众中，约有73%的人认为这场战争不可能“取胜”。

Inevitably, it has all put pressure on the politicians to show they are doing their best to bring the troops home.In their talks, Mr Obama and Mr Cameron discussed the drawdown.The date at which all combat operations are handed over to Afghan forces is still meant to be the end of 2014.But Mr Cameron said Britain and America are now “absolutely in lockstep” on ending NATO’s “lead combat role” around mid-2013, presumably at the end of the summer fighting season.这些必然会给政府官员带来压力，迫使他们表现出他们正在尽最大的努力将部队撤回国内。在奥巴马与卡梅伦的会晤中，他们讨论了缩减阿富汗驻军的问题。将作战任务全部移交给阿富汗军队的时间仍然是在2014年年底。但卡梅伦说英国与美国现在正“以绝对一致的步调”在2013年年中结束北约军队的“作战主导角色”，有可能在2013年夏天作战季结束之后。

It is not clear what this means in practice, but the generals actually fighting the war are dead against any acceleration of the “transition” timetable.Not only do they hope foreign forces may inflict further damage on the insurgency before then, but they also need the time to train an Afghan army that can outlast both their presence and the Taliban.这一说法最终操作起来会如何还不清楚，但实际参加作战任务的指挥官们却坚决反对加快“转交作战任务”的步伐。他们不仅希望北约军队在此之前能让叛乱人员遭到更沉重的打击，他们还需要时间训练阿富汗军队，使其能够在外国军队撤离后胜任安保工作并能压制住塔利班。

The shooting adds fresh strain to ISAF’s relations with Mr Karzai and his government, on whose behalf, it is sometimes hard to remember, it is fighting.Mr Karzai has now called for NATO-led forces to keep out of Afghan villages.When Leon Panetta, the American defence secretary, showed up in Afghanistan this week, he seemed unlikely to make much progress on the biggest item on the bilateral agenda, forging a “strategic partnership agreement” meant to govern the security relationship after 2014, when both sides hope American troops will stay in Afghanistan, though no longer on the front line.Of the two big sticking points, one has recently budged, with an agreement to transfer some detainees to Afghan custody.The other, however, the Afghan demand for an end to “night raids”, looks harder than ever.At the very least, America may have to agree that the raids will all be “Afghan-led”.ISAF says most already are.这次枪击事件使得国际安全援助部队与卡尔扎伊及阿富汗政府的关系更加紧张。后者有时候都忘了这场战争是为了他们而打。现在卡尔扎伊要求北约军队不要进入阿富汗村庄。当美国国防部长莱昂?帕内塔本周抵达阿富汗时，他似乎不可能在双方议事日程中最主要的议题上取得太大进展。该议题即达成“战略性合作协议”，该协议旨在规定2014年以后双方的安全合作关系。届时，尽管美军不再参与前线作战，但双方都希望美国军队能都继续驻扎在阿富汗。在影响双方谈判的两个主要问题中，其中一个已经取得些许成果：双方达成协议将部分囚犯转交给阿富汗看管。而第二个问题，也就是阿富汗政府要求北约军队停止开展“夜间袭击”，似乎比以往任何时候都难以解决。至少，美国得同意所有的夜间袭击都要由“阿富汗领导”。国际安全援助部队表示，事实上大多数的夜间袭击行动已经是在阿富汗部队的领导之下进行的。

A third obstacle has now arisen: extraterritoriality, or the American insistence that soldiers such as the Panjwai suspect—who has now been flown out of Afghanistan—are investigated and judged by the American army, not in the Afghan courts.From Baghdad to Okinawa, this is a thorny issue, and now is not a good time in Kabul to negotiate an agreement guaranteeing American troops immunity from local prosecution even after 2014.现在，阻碍双方达成最终协议的第三个障碍出现了：治外法权。也就是说：美国坚持其士兵（如现已乘机离开阿富汗的本杰瓦尔枪击惨案的嫌犯）必须由美国军方来调查和审判，而不是在阿富汗法庭受审。从巴格达到冲绳，这都是一个棘手的问题。但是现在，要讨论即使是保证2014年以后美军士兵不在当地受审的协议似乎都不太是时候。

Watching all this closely will be the Taliban.They will be aware of Western donors’ intention to scale back a proposed 352,000-strong Afghan security force, which is supposed to ensure the survival of the Kabul regime after 2014.And on March 15th they suspended talks with the Americans about opening an office in Qatar, which was to have been the venue for a dialogue.The idea of talks was based on the assumption that both sides know the Taliban cannot hope to conquer and hold Kabul and the north of the country, whereas the south will never have peace until the Taliban are brought into politics.塔利班肯定正密切关注着事件的进展。他们会注意到西方捐助者缩减原定为352000人的阿富汗安全部队的意图，该部队承担着在2014年之后保护阿富汗政府的职责。在3月15日，塔利班停止了与美军关于在卡塔尔设立一个办公室的谈判，该办公室本来是要作为双方对话的场所。双方对话是基于这样一个假设：双方都清楚地知道塔利班不可能攻下并守住喀布尔及北方地区；同时，在承认塔利班是合法的政治力量之前，阿富汗南方地区也将永无宁日。

One danger in the Western disarray over Afghanistan is that the Taliban may begin to dream grandly again of restoring their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.And in this ambition Afghanistan’s big neighbour, Pakistan, itself angry and disillusioned with the West, and still a vital source of support and sanctuary for the Taliban, might think it has an interest in encouraging them.西方国家在阿富汗现在面临着一个混乱的局面，这对他们来说有一个隐忧：塔利班可能会异想天开地认为他们又有机会复兴他们的阿富汗伊斯兰酋长国。仍然是塔利班的主要支持力量并为塔利班提供庇护的巴基斯坦已经对西方相当愤怒并且不抱有任何幻想。阿富汗旁边这个举足轻重的邻国，可能会觉得自己在支持塔利班卷土重来的野心中确实有利可图。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65224-1-1.html 译者：Dezazer

[2012.03.17]Flavoursome research “味儿足”的研究

Matter and antimatter 物质与反物质

Flavoursome research “味儿足”的研究

Physicists are closing in on how matter differs from antimatter 物理学家们正携手最终解释物质究竟如何与反物质不同 Mar 17th 2012 | from the print edition

HOT on the heels of results from Fermilab, in America, which reported last week on an esoteric phenomenon called charge-conjugation/parity(CP)violation involving equally esoteric subatomic particles known as D0-mesons, a second research group, the Daya Bay Collaboration of more than 40 institutions, mainly from China and America, has found a related result involving neutrinos.CP violation is an asymmetry between matter and antimatter and the experiment, based at a complex of nuclear reactors 50km(30 miles)north of Hong Kong, has settled a longstanding puzzle that bears on the question of whether neutrinos, too, experience it.That, in turn, is related to the deeper question of why the universe is made of matter rather than having originally had equal amounts of matter and antimatter.If such a primordial equity had prevailed, the two would have annihilated each other, leaving a universe filled only with energy.上周，美国的费米实验室（Fermilab）报告了涉及D0介子的CP破缺（电荷共轭/宇称对称性破缺）现象，这种现象连同这种亚原子粒子都不怎么为一般人所了解。还没多久，另一个研究小组在中微子上发现了一个相关的实验结果，这个名为大亚湾合作研究项目的研究小组是由主要来自美国和中国的40多家研究机构组成的。CP破缺是物质与反物质之间的一种不对称性。这个在香港以北50公里的核反应堆综合设施内完成的实验，解开了一个有助于了解中微子是否也存在CP破缺的长久谜题。而这又联系到一个更深层的问题：为什么世界是由物质组成，而不是像初始时那样存在等量的物质与反物质。如果这种原始的均势在宇宙中存在，物质与反物质将会相互湮灭，留下一个仅仅充满着能量的世界。

Strictly speaking, the Daya Bay experiment looked at antineutrinos rather than neutrinos.These particles are a by-product of nuclear fission, and the six reactors at Daya Bay and nearby Ling Ao turn them out in prodigious quantities.The idea was to see how many of these antineutrinos disappear before reaching the experiment’s main detector(pictured above), which is housed in an underground hall near the reactors.This, the team hoped, would help elucidate a phenomenon known as neutrino oscillation.严格来说，大亚湾这个实验观察的是反中微子而不是中微子。他们是核裂变的副产品，大亚湾和附近的岭澳核电站的六个反应堆可以源源提供大量此类粒子。实验的想法是看看有多少反中微子在到达主探测器（见上图，安放在反应堆附近的地下大厅中）之前消失。研究小组此前是希望它可以帮助了解中微子振荡这一现象。

Neutrinos(and antineutrinos)come in three “flavours”: electron-neutrinos, muon-neutrinos and tau-neutrinos.A given neutrino can, however, oscillate between these flavours.As a consequence, some of the electron-antineutrinos spewed out by the reactors were expected to morph into other sorts and thus escape detection by apparatus designed to count only electron-antineutrinos.And the researchers did indeed observe 6% fewer of the beasts than would have been the case if no oscillations had taken place.中微子（和反中微子）分为三种“味”：电子-中微子，μ介子-中微子和τ介子-中微子。一个指定的中微子仍然可以在这些“味”之间振荡。因此，当一部分从反应堆喷射出来的电子-反中微子变成其他的“味”时，专门设计来探测电子-反中微子的仪器就探测不到这部分。实验中，研究人员确实观测到这种诡异的粒子比没有振荡效应情况下预测的少了6%。

The way neutrinos oscillate is described by three numbers called mixing angles, which determine how likely this spot-changing is for any pair of flavours.Two of the angles have been known for some time.The remaining one, theta-13, which governs the relationship between electron-and tau-neutrinos, has proved elusive.Last year two experiments, T2K in Japan and MINOS in America, found hints of what it might be.The results from Daya Bay have at last allowed it to be determined accurately.To many physicists’ relief, they have confirmed that it is not zero.This is crucial, because if it had been zero they would have no experimental purchase on a fourth parameter, called delta.中微子振荡的方式可以由三个被称为混合角的参数描述，以此可以确定任意两种味之间“振荡”发生的概率。其中的两个混合角已经知道有一段时间了。余下的一个描述电子-中微子和τ介子-中微子之间振荡的θ13被证明是难以捉摸的。去年的两个实验（日本的T2K和美国的MINOS）发现了找到这个参数可能值的迹象。而大亚湾这个实验的结果则终于使该参数得以精确测定。让很多物理学家欣慰的是，这些结果确认了这个参数不为零。这是很关键的，因为如果它为零，就没有必要做实验观测第四个参数δ了。

Delta is a measure of how much neutrinos feel CP violation.And CP violation in neutrinos is something theorists can parlay into oodles of universe-preserving matter-antimatter asymmetry.Experiments like those at Daya Bay, involving antineutrinos from reactors, cannot measure delta directly.But the collaboration’s result bodes well for those that can.These include T2K and MINOS, both of which use particle accelerators to whip up beams of muon-neutrinos and send them to detectors hundreds of kilometres away.δ用来量度中微子受到CP破缺影响的程度。目前理论认为是“物质-反物质”之间的高不对称性维持着物质世界的稳定，而中微子的CP破缺是理论物理学家用以研究这个不对称性的有效途径。大亚湾这类涉及反应堆抛出的反中微子的实验，并不能直接测量δ。但是这个实验项目的结果给了那些可以测量出该参数的实验更多的信心。这些实验包括T2K和MINOS，它们都是利用粒子加速器把μ介子-中微子束加速并射向数百公里外的探测器。

T2K was shut down by the earthquake and tsunami which shook Japan a year ago, but it has been back in business since January.In America, meanwhile, MINOS is being replaced with a fancier experiment called NOvA, which will start collecting data in 2013.With luck, then, the matter-antimatter conundrum—and with it the reason anything exists at all—will not remain a mystery much longer.T2K由于日本的地震和海啸而于一年前关闭了，今年一月又重新投入使用。在美国的MINOS也正在被名为NOvA的更厉害的实验所替代，新实验将于2013年开始采集数据。到那时如果运气好的话，“物质-反物质”的谜团，连同它所能解释的为什么现在居然有物质存在的难题，将不再是个谜。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65222-1-1.html 译者：darcher

[2012.03.17]A Singapore cemetery: Brown study 一座新加坡坟场 A Singapore cemetery 一座新加坡坟场

Brown study 深思布朗山

Citizens rally to the defence of the dead, and their own heritage 公民奋起捍卫逝者的权益，以及自己的文化传承 Mar 17th 2012 | SINGAPORE | from the print edition

Sikh: for now, ye shall find 锡克说：现在，还得寻见[注1]

THAT it has survived this long is a sort of miracle.In the middle of Singapore, just north of the Pan-Island Expressway, lies 0.9 square km(0.3 square miles)of lush greenery, birdsong, and 80,000-100,000 tombs.Bukit Brown, named after a British merchant who lived nearby in the 19th century, is one of the world’s biggest Chinese graveyards outside China.在新加坡中部泛岛高速公路北侧有一座盖地0.9平方公里的坟场。这片郁郁葱葱，鸟语声声，共有八到十万塚墓地的坟场能够幸存至今不能不说是一种奇迹。该地以19世纪时住在附近的一位英国商人命名，叫作武吉布朗山[注2]，它是中国以外世界上最大的华人墓地。

A peaceful, rather magical place, it is frequented by strollers, joggers, cyclists and, especially at this time of year, just ahead of the Qing Ming grave-sweeping festival in early April, by the filial, equipped with brooms and with “ghost money” to burn in tribute to the dead.这是一个幽静奇妙的地方，有很多散步者，跑步者和骑自行车者常来光顾。此外，特别是每年4月初清明扫墓时节之前，大量孝子孝孙们会带着扫帚和冥钱前来祭祀逝者。

Some graves date back to the 1830s, or, as the tomb inscriptions have it, the reign of the Daoguang emperor, sixth of China’s Qing dynasty.That was not long after Sir Stamford Raffles claimed the island for the British.Here lie buried Singapore’s pioneers and its heroes—both of the war with Japan, and of the commercial struggles that have always been the island’s lifeblood.The biggest tomb holds Ong Sam Leong, who died in 1917, having made a fortune out of his monopoly on the supply of coolie labour to phosphate mines on Christmas Island.坟场里的一些坟墓可以追溯到19世纪30年代，换句话说，根据碑文是立于中国清朝第六位皇帝道光年间。当时距斯坦福?莱佛士爵士[注3]将新加坡收归英国版图还没过多久。这里沉睡着新加坡的先驱和英雄们，有的是和日本作战时期的英雄，有的则是这个岛国一直以来的命脉-商业斗争中的豪强。其中最大的坟墓属于1917年过世的王三龙。他当年曾垄断了向圣诞岛上的磷矿输送苦力劳工的业务，并以此发家致富。

Like many other graves, it is protected not just by statues of fierce beasts, golden boys and jade maidens, but also by models of imposing Sikh guards.And it has 24 friezes illustrating filial piety: the woman who suckles her mother-in-law rather than her hungry infant;the boy who digs a cave by his parents’ tomb to comfort them during thunderstorms;the son who tastes his father’s stool to ascertain his state of health.和很多其它坟墓一样，这座坟周围不但有凶猛石兽，金童玉女保卫，也放有威风的锡克卫士像[注4]。碑上还刻有二十四孝浮雕：乳姑不怠，闻雷泣墓，尝粪忧心等等。

These days Bukit Brown is also the haunt of an unlikely assortment of activists: descendants, heritage enthusiasts and nature-lovers, all hoping to persuade the government not to drive a planned eight-lane road through this unique piece of Singapore’s history.The road’s final alignment is to be announced soon.如今武吉布朗山也是一些本应互无瓜葛的活动分子共同心系的问题：这些人包括逝者后人，文化传承热衷分子还有自然爱好者。他们都希望劝服政府不要让一条规划中的八车道公路通过这片独特的新加坡历史保留地。该公路的最终线形将于近期公布。

Red-and-white plastic strips strung from poles mark the expected corridor.Numbered wooden pales mark graves likely to be in its path.The government’s Ministry of National Development says fewer than 5,000 will be affected, and all will be exhumed.在预计将要建造公路的位置两边立着柱子，之间系着红白相间的塑料带。对建造公路有妨碍的坟墓都被标出，旁边插有带着数字的木桩子。国家发展部宣布受到影响的坟墓不到五千座，这些坟墓将会被移走。

But the road will slice Bukit Brown in two and, say enthusiasts, destroy its character.Eventually, it will be given over to housing.Singapore’s population has doubled in the past 30 years, to 5.2m, and is expected to increase to 6.5m by 2050.The government favours the living over the dead.但是活动分子认为这条公路会把武吉布朗山一分为二，破坏其风貌。最终，这块地区将会被改建成住宅区。新加坡的人口在过去三十年里已经翻了一倍，现在已达520万，到2050年预计将会增加到650万。对政府来说，活人当然比死人重要。

Thanks to the internet, the energetic campaign to educate Singaporeans about Bukit Brown has put some pressure on the government.But fewer than 2,000 people have signed its petition.Bukit Brown really does need a miracle now.多亏了互联网，这项充满活力，旨在让新加坡人更了解武吉布朗山的运动已经在政府头上施加了一定的压力。但是目前只有不到2千人签署了它对政府提出的请愿。现在看来，要保留武吉布朗山确实需要一个奇迹。

http://ecocn.org/thread-65181-1-1.html 译者：nayilus

[2012.03.10]Bandwagons and busts 从众和灾难 Costs 成本

Bandwagons and busts 从众和灾难

Nuclear plants are getting ever more expensive.But Asian countries may build them more cheaply 核电站变得越来越昂贵。但是亚洲国家建造核电站的成本可能较低

Mar 10th 2012 | from the print edition

A clear argument for nuclear power 这张照片很清楚地说明了应该用核能的理由

IN HAIYANG, ON the northern Chinese coast, and at Sanmen, farther south, an international consortium led by Westinghouse is well into building two AP1000s, with two more in the works;China plans eventually to have 12 split between the two sites.If the plans go ahead, each site will have as much capacity connected to the grid as the whole of Nigeria has today.Yet the two plants represent only a small fraction of China’s nuclear ambitions.Its pre-Fukushima plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 10GW to 80GW by 2020 may fall behind schedule, but China still looks certain to build more new nuclear plants than any other country over the decade to come—and possibly more than all others combined.由西屋电气公司带领的一支国际联队正在位于中国北方的海阳以及更南方的三门两个沿海城市里建造核电站。两座AP1000反应堆的建造已经有了相当进展，此外这批工程还将再建造两座反应堆。中国计划最终将在这两个地点建立共12座反应堆。如果一切照计划行事，这两个地点将拥有的核电容量各自都能超过今天尼日利亚全国电网的发电容量。但是两座电厂只代表了中国核电抱负的一小部分。中国在福岛事件之前订立的计划是在2020年前将核电容量从10千兆瓦提高到80千兆瓦。这一计划现在可能无法按时达成了，但是在接下来的十年里，中国建造的新核电厂肯定比其它国家都要多，甚至可能比所有其它国家新建的核电厂总数还要多。

By nuclear standards, this is a big deal;China will add more nuclear capacity in those ten years than France has in total.But for China itself it is less big;nuclear will go from generating less than 2% of the country’s electricity to less than 5%.Ming Sung, who works for the Clean Air Task Force, an American think-tank in Beijing, points out that China is not betting on nuclear;it is betting on everything that offers an alternative to coal.China consumes half the world’s annual coal output, and has the supply problems, dirty air and huge death toll(hundreds of thousands a year from respiratory diseases)that go with it.Junda Lin of the China Greentech Initiative points out that the 2020 target for nuclear has to be seen in the context of a 200GW target for wind and an extra 100GW of hydropower.The idea is to try everything and see what works best.以核电标准来看，这可是个大工程。中国在这十年里增加的核电容量将会超过法国全国的总核电容量。但是这对中国来说就并不算大。核电容量将会从全国总发电容量的不到2%上升至不到5%。美国智囊集团“净化空气任务组织”驻北京的孙嗣敏指出中国并不是在核能上下注，而是在所有可以代替煤的能源形式上都下注。中国现在消耗世界煤炭年产量的一半，同时也面对与之俱来煤源供应、空气污染和大量死亡者（每年因呼吸道疾病死亡者有几十万人）这些问题。中国绿色科技组织的林骏达指出之前定下的2020年核能目标要和200千兆瓦的风力发电和增加100千兆瓦的水力发电这些目标放在一起看。现在的思路是要尝试所有发电手段，看看哪一种最适合。

Most of the plants China is currently building are generation IIs derived from a French design it bought in the 1980s and now built by Chinese companies, but there are also Russian PWRs in Tianwan and Canadian Candus in Qinshan.In Taishan two EPRs are being built by Areva and the China Guangdong Nuclear Group, which has a long-standing relationship with the French industrial base from which its domestic designs ultimately derive.And then there are the AP1000s.Westinghouse won that contract in large part by promising to transfer the technology in full to local companies, but it hopes that its expertise will allow it to keep a prominent role in the Chinese industry.中国现在在建造的大多数核电站都是第二代核电站，是从80年代购买的一种法国核电站设计衍生出来的，由中国公司建造。不过在田湾也有俄罗斯的压水反应堆（PWR），秦山核电站内也有加拿大氘铀核反应堆（Candu）。在台山核电站内阿海珐公司和中国广东核电集团则正在合作建造两座欧洲压水堆（EPR）。中广核与法国工业基础有长期的合作关系，其国内核电厂设计说到底是从法国借鉴来的。另外还有AP1000，西屋电气能获标这次工程有很大一部分原因在于其承诺将会把核电厂技术完全转移给本地公司，不过西屋电气希望自己在核电方面的专业水准能让自己继续保持住在中国核能行业内的领头地位。

After Fukushima the state council stopped approving new power stations and called for re-evaluations of the seismic and flooding risks faced by those already built and under construction.A new law expected later this year will take nuclear regulation away from the National Development and Reform Commission, the state’s industrial planners, and hand it over to the environment ministry, thus splitting the role of cheerleading from that of invigilation.Part of what passes for the Chinese government’s legitimacy comes from the perception that it can manage large-scale technology well.The backlash against China’s high-speed train programme after last year’s accident at Wenzhou, which provoked criticism and anger of a sort that Chinese leaders fear, would be dwarfed by what could be expected from a nuclear accident.在福岛事件之后，国务院停止对新核电站的批准，并要求对那些已经建好及尚在建造中的核电站面对洪水地震时的安全隐患进行一次再评估。今年稍后，一项新的法律将会把核监管的责任从中国的工业计划局－国家发展和改革委员会转移到环境部手中。这么一来就把给核能摇旗呐喊的角色和对核能监察管制的角色分离开来。中国政府的正统性有一部份来自于公众认为其能良好管理大规模技术的看法。去年的温州事故引发了中国领导人深以为惧的公众抨击和愤怒，造成人们对中国高铁项目的激烈反对。但比起一旦发生核事故灾难可能引起的民众反应，这是小巫见大巫了。

A sincerely self-interested desire to avoid accidents, though, will not necessarily translate into a model regulatory infrastructure.A safety culture of constant questioning will not be easy to instil.And China’s nuclear regulatory workforce is already more stretched than that of other big economies in terms of employees per gigawatt under regulation.但是，出于自身利益而由衷地希望避免灾难并不一定能就能产生优秀的监管基础设施。要培养一种不断质疑的安全文化不是一件易事。而以监管每一万兆瓦核能的平均人数来看，中国的核能监管人力已经比很多大型经济体更为短缺了。

Beside the seaside 临海之滨

Another new law will outline future plans for the industry.Some expect China’s nuclear boom to slow down in the wake of Fukushima, with new capacity perhaps reaching only 40GW by 2020.And China could get proportionally more AP1000s and fewer of its own home-made designs, the safety of which may be less assured.All China’s current plants are by the sea, both because it is convenient for cooling and because that is where the demand is.There have been plans for nuclear plants inland, cooled by rivers, but concerns about the availability of water in drier years to come and the risk of contaminating it may cause these plans to be shelved.另一项新法案将会概述核能行业未来的计划。有人预计中国的核繁荣在福岛事件之后将会放慢脚步，其2020年的核电容量可能只会达到40千兆瓦。中国也可能会在建造核电站时加大AP1000所占的比例，减少安全水准没有那么可靠的国产核电站设计。中国现有的所有核电站都是位于沿海，这既是因为沿海更易于提供冷却，也是因为沿海是电力需求最大的地方。也曾有过在内地建造利用江河进行冷却的核电站计划，但是对旱年冷却水可能会出现短缺的忧虑，加上核电站可能会造成污染的风险也许是这些计划最终没有落实的原因。

China’s expansion into nuclear power is hardly a market-driven development, but it helps that the plants involved look comparatively cheap.There are two ways of measuring the cost of a nuclear power plant: the “overnight” cost, which counts up the material and labour that goes into a new plant as if it had all been purchased simultaneously, and the “levellised” cost, which is a measure of the total amount of energy a plant provides over its life divided by the total expenditure—construction, operation, maintenance, fuel and, eventually, decommissioning.One is the cost of the capacity to produce electricity, the other the cost of the electricity produced.The 2010 edition of the IEA/NEA Costs of Generating Electricity study puts overnight costs for Chinese generation II plants at $1,700 for every kilowatt of capacity, giving a gigawatt plant a price tag of less than $2 billion.For the AP1000s the estimated costs are higher($2,300/kW), and by the time the projects are finished they may be higher still;these are the first AP1000s being built anywhere, so its wise to expect surprises.Schedules are being stretched, and the Chinese contractors for key parts of the third and fourth AP1000s are falling behind a bit, according to Westinghouse.中国大规模开发核能几乎算不上是市场驱动的一项发展，但是其建造的核电站相对较便宜确实对发展是有所帮助的。一座核电站的成本有两种方法可以测量：“隔夜”成本，即算入所有建造新电站的材料和劳力成本，就好像所有这些都是同时购买的一样；还有一种方法是“平准”成本，即测量核电站终生使用过程中提供的总电能，除以所有的总开销，包括建造，运作，维护，燃料以及最终废弃的全部成本。前者衡量发电容量的成本，后者衡量实际发电的成本。2010版本的国际能源署/核能署发电成本报告中将中国第二代核电厂的隔夜成本定在每千瓦容量1700美元，这意味着一座容量为1千兆瓦的电厂价格为20亿美元不到。而AP1000电厂的估计成本要更高（每千瓦2300美元），等到项目完成时它的实际成本可能会进一步上升。在中国建造的这几座反应堆是世界上第一批建造的AP1000，所以工程中出现和预计不符的现象是很正常的。工程进度目前正在不断延后，根据西屋电气，为第三和第四座AP1000提供关键部件的一些中国供应商进度已有点落后了。

Still, almost anywhere else in the world, these figures would today be a source of envy—or incredulity.When companies were beginning to pitch generation III reactors ten years ago, they claimed that better, standardised designs and improved construction techniques would make them both safer and cheaper.In Western countries that second claim has gone by the board.British studies in 2004, 2006 and 2008 put the overnight cost of new PWRs at $2,233/kW, then $2,644, then $3,000.Estimates from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT)rose from $2,208/kW to $4,000 over roughly the same time.The NEA quotes costs for an EPR in Belgium(now cancelled)at $5,400 per kW.Capacity fired by gas turbines, for comparison, can cost less than a fifth of that.即使这样，在世界上任何其它地方，现今核电厂成本可以达到这种数字都会招来嫉妒，或者怀疑。一些公司在十年前开始推广第三代反应堆时，它们宣称更优秀的标准化设计，加上更先进的建造技术可以让这些电厂不但更安全，也更便宜。在西方国家，这第二个卖点已经被彻底粉碎了。英国在2004，2006和2008年的三份研究报告给出的新型PWR的隔夜成本分别是每千瓦2233美元，2644美元和3000美元。麻省理工学院（MIT）的估价则在大约同一时期内从每千瓦2208美元上升到了4000美元。核能署为比利时的一座EPR（现在已取消）的估价达到每千瓦5400美元。相比之下，燃气轮机发电单位容量的成本可以低于其五分之一。

Real construction costs, which include the cost of borrowing the money needed, are even higher than overnight costs.Construction costs for the two AP1000s that Progress Energy has planned for its Levy site in Florida have recently been reported at about $20 billion, which works out at about $9,000 per kW and strongly suggests that the reactors will not be built.实际建造成本也包括所需贷款的借贷成本，这么一来就比隔夜成本还要更高。进步能源公司计划在其佛罗里达州莱维县电厂建造两台AP1000反应堆，最近该建造成本据报达到大约200亿美元，折合下来就是每千瓦9000美元，这意味着这两个反应堆很有可能被取消。

Cost escalation has been the rule throughout the industry’s history.In the late 1960s what is now called the “great bandwagon market” took off in America.Companies selling plants they had no real experience of building offered fixed prices to make them attractive.Utilities keen to reduce their reliance on coal in an age of clean-air standards took the bait.As orders flooded in, costs started to climb.Projects meant to be completed in years dragged on for more than a decade, in part because of new environmental concerns, in part because designs were revised as lessons were learned.At the Vogtle plant, in Georgia, a pair of reactors originally priced at $660m in 1971 came in at $8.87 billion 16 years later.Half the projects ended up cancelled.成本飙升在核能行业内一直以来都是很普遍的。在60年代末，美国核能行业出现了现在被称为“大型从众市场”[注]的现象。公司在出售自己并没有实际建造经验的电站时提出了固定价格吸引买家。面对清洁空气标准时代的来临，公用企业急于减少对煤炭的依赖，纷纷上钩了。随着大量订单涌入，成本开始向上攀爬。本应几年完工的项目拖了十几年，有一部分原因是来自新的环境顾虑，也有一部分原因是随着在实际建造中学到经验电站设计被不断的改进。乔治亚州的沃格特勒核电站在1971年订造，一开始标价6亿6000万美元的两座反应堆最终花了16年才建好，总成本88.7亿美元。有一半的项目最终都被取消了。

The French experience is often quoted as a positive counter-history to the American mess.France had long been keen on energy security.When it made PWRs based on a Westinghouse design a national priority in the early 1970s, it brought a thorough-minded discipline to the matter, building its capacity region by region, improving the designs as it went along and increasing the size of its plants to reap economies of scale.Having the same contractor and customer for so many plants allowed the system to learn from mistakes and to refit older plants to newer standards.Even so, according to calculations by Arnulf Grübler of IIASA, a think-tank near Vienna, each of the six designs France has fielded has cost more per kilowatt than the previous one had.He estimates that the four reactors built in the 1990s cost between $2,267 and $3,252/kW in 2010 dollars, more than twice the real cost of capacity built in the 1970s and early 1980s.The first two EPRs to be built in Europe, in France and Finland, have both gone extravagantly over schedule and budget.法国的核能发展史经常被作为一个正面教材，拿来和美国混乱的核能发展史做对比。法国从很久以前就开始关注能源安全问题。70年代初，法国将基于西屋电气设计的PWR开发作为国家重点项目。法国在这个项目上引入了非常彻底的纪律作风，一个地区接着一个地区有条不紊地建造核电容量，在这个过程中同步改进其设计，并扩大电站规模来达到规模经济。这么多电站都是同一个顾客，同一个承包商，这让整个核电系统可以从错误中学习到经验，将旧的电站改修来满足新的标准。即使这样，根据“国际应用系统分析学院”（维也纳附近的智囊机构）的阿努尔夫?格鲁伯勒计算，法国在实际建造中用到的六个电站设计论单位千瓦的成本，每一个都比前一个更贵。他估计90年代的四座反应堆成本折算成2010年美元的话介于每千瓦2267美元到3252美元之间，这是70年代和80年代初建造的核电容量实际成本的两倍多。欧洲最先建造的两座EPR分别是在法国和芬兰建造的，两者完工日期都大大延后，且大幅度超出了预算。

A decade ago the nuclear industry hoped that the combination of safe, low-cost generation III reactors and governments eager to encourage lower carbon-dioxide emissions would lead to a “nuclear renaissance”.In the West those low costs have failed to materialise, so the renaissance is largely stalled.Whereas a few years ago Britain was talking of building eight new reactors to replace its ageing fleet, only two are likely to make it in the near term.Steve Thomas, an economist at the University of Greenwich, argues that even with a fixed carbon price of €36/tonne and a guaranteed price for the electricity(both features of a currently planned re-regulation of Britain’s energy market;today’s EU carbon price is under €10), those plans remain vulnerable.十年之前核能行业希望安全廉价的第三代反应堆和急于鼓励降低二氧化碳排放的政府两者结合起来，将会带来一场“核能复兴”。在西方低廉成本的保证并没有兑现，因此这种复兴基本上被搁置了。几年前英国曾谈论要建造八座新的反应堆来替换其老化的核能设施，但是现在只有两座可能在近期建造。格林威治大学的经济学家斯蒂夫?托马斯认为即使把碳价格锁定在每吨36欧元，同时保证电力价格（目前有一项计划要对英国能源市场重新实施监管，这两项都是该计划的组成部份，现在欧盟的碳价格不到10欧元），这些核能计划要想实施还是有重重问题。

In a capital-intensive industry such as the nuclear one, the cost of capital is always crucial, and higher overnight costs magnify the problem.Calculations of the levellised costs of energy by UBS, a bank, show clearly that the cost of capital dominates the picture.For a plant costing $5,500 per kW, capital makes up 75% of total costs in Europe and America.UBS reckons the levellised cost of such a plant in Europe is 11% higher than the cost of a gas plant.It would take a quintupling of the carbon price to wipe out that differential.And those calculations assume that it is as easy to borrow to finance a nuclear plant, with all its uncertainties and regulatory risk, as it is to finance a gas plant, which is probably unrealistic.在像核能这样一个资本密集的行业内，资本成本一向都是很关键的，较高的隔夜成本将会把问题扩大化。瑞士银行对能源平准成本的计算清楚显示资本成本占据主导地位。要建一座每千瓦需要5500美元的核电站，在欧洲和美国资本占所有成本的75%。瑞士银行认为如果就平准成本来看，这样的电站在欧洲的成本比天然气发电站成本高11%。碳价要翻五倍才能抵销这一价格差异。而且这些计算都假设不管建造的是核电站还是天然气发电站，要为两者借贷募资是一样容易的。考虑到建造核电站有着大量不确定性，再加上监管风险，这个假设似乎不太实际。

Step on the gas 加大油门

In eastern Europe, where Russian dominance of gas markets is a political issue and electricity markets are still quite regulated, governments may consider such a differential acceptable.The Czech Republic is about to tender for new generation III PWRs, and Poland has plans along those lines too.But in America things look very different.Asked if Fukushima put America’s nuclear renaissance on ice, Ernest Moniz of MIT replies succinctly: “No.Shale gas did.” For all the production incentives, loan guarantees and indemnity for costs due to regulatory change offered by government, the sharp drop in gas prices caused by new sources of supply ruled out new nuclear plants in any market where the two energy sources compete freely.According to UBS, the advantage of gas over nuclear in America is roughly twice what it is in Europe.在东欧，俄罗斯在天然气市场上的主导地位是一个政治问题，而且电力市场的监管程度依然非常高。这么一来东欧政府可能会觉得这样的差价是可以接受的。捷克马上就要进行新的第三代PWR建筑投标，波兰也有类似的计划。但是在美国情况则非常不同。在被问到福岛事件是否冻结了美国的核复兴时，MIT的俄尼斯特?莫尼兹给出了一个言简意赅的回答：“不，那是页岩气干的”。尽管有政府提供的各种生产激励，借贷担保以及为因为监管政策改变造成的损失进行赔偿，核能还是敌不过天然气。因为新供应源的出现，天然气的价格大幅下降。在任何这两种能源自由竞争的市场里，廉价的天然气都彻底排除了兴建新核电站的可能。根据瑞士银行的分析，在美国天然气相对核能的优势大致比欧洲要高一倍。

John Rowe, CEO of Exelon, an energy company that has ten nuclear power plants in its portfolio, says that companies like his no longer have any reason to build nuclear plants.All plans to build nuclear plants in parts of America where the electricity market has been deregulated are coming to naught.Some American plants will still be built, but only in the south-east, where regulators allow the cost of increasing a utility’s asset base to be passed on directly—indeed pre-emptively—to its captive customers.Thus electricity consumers in Georgia are already paying for two new AP1000s which in February got clearance from the NRC to complement the two reactors at Vogtle.In Sumner, South Carolina, two more AP1000s are under contract.Those four will probably be all the renaissance America sees for some time.爱克斯龙能源公司旗下目前有十座核电站。其首席执行官约翰?罗伊认为像爱克斯龙这样的公司已经没有什么理由继续建造核电站了。在美国所有那些电力市场监管已经被解除的地方，建造核电站的计划都无疾而终。美国还是有一些核电站正在建造之中，但是这仅发生在东南部，那里的电力监管使得公用企业可以把增加资产基础的成本直接（实际上是预先）转移给那些无法切换公用供应商的顾客们。因此乔治亚州的电力用户所付的电费中已经包含了将要建造的两座新AP1000的费用。这两座反应堆将加入沃格特勒核电站已有的两座反应堆行列。2月核管理委员会对该工程进行了批准。南卡罗来纳州萨姆纳市订购了两座AP1000。这四座很可能就是很长一段时间内美国核能复兴的全部成员了。

If the West could build new reactors as cheaply as China can, things would look different.That it cannot is in part due to labour costs.But the Chinese must have other advantages too.The levellised costs of modern Chinese coal-fired power stations are lower than the competition’s even when the power stations are not built in China.The same is true for cement works;Chinese companies operating outside China cannot build them as cheaply as they do at home, but they still easily beat the international competition.如果西方国家可以以和中国一样的低成本建造反应堆，那么情况就会大不一样。它们做不到的部份原因在于劳工成本。但中国公司一定也有其它优势。中国的现代燃煤电站即使在海外建造，其平准成本还是比竞争对手低。水泥工厂也是一样的。在海外运作的中国公司建造的水泥工厂虽然成本比在国内建造的要高，但还是比国际竞争对手要便宜得多。

Further evidence that a different industrial approach can cut costs comes from South Korea.Like Japan, the country has little by way of indigenous energy supplies, and it too decided on nuclear power to solve that problem and bring new technological skills to its industrial base.It gets some 30% of its electricity from nuclear plants, much the same as Japan did before Fukushima, and more than any large economy other than France.In 2010 KEPCO, the South Korean power company, sold its reactors overseas for the first time, beating the French to a contract in the United Arab Emirates;at home its overnight costs for such generation II reactors are calculated at just over $1,500/kW.使用不同的工业方法可以减少成本的进一步证据来自韩国。和日本一样，韩国几乎没有本土能源，它也决定要依靠核能来解决这个问题，同时在其工业基础内引入新的技术技能。韩国30%的电力来自于核电站。这个比例和福岛事件之前的日本相仿，比除了法国外任何其它大型经济体都要高。2010年韩国电力公司第一次将其反应堆远销海外，在争夺阿联酋的一份合同时击败了法国同行。在国内韩国电力公司这类第二代反应堆的隔夜成本据计算大约只有每千瓦1500美元出头一点。

The true costs in South Korean business can be hard to make out.It would not be at all surprising if, working abroad for the first time and having been keenly competitive in its bidding, KEPCO failed to deliver the UAE reactors on budget.And given that nuclear prices have gone up everywhere else, it is fair to expect that they will do so to some extent in Asia, too.But if China and South Korea can build reactors abroad at prices not much higher than those at home, nuclear may see its fortunes tick up elsewhere, argues David Victor, of the University of California.Both Westinghouse and EDF have plans for new reactors in the export market that would be designed and sold in collaboration with Chinese partners.Russia is keen to export PWRs too, but its costs are not clear.韩国企业真正投入的成本是很难计算的。第一次在海外运作，加上韩国电力在竞标时把价格压得很低，它如果最终无法按预算完成这些阿联酋反应堆并不会是一件很让人惊讶的事。考虑到核电站造价在全世界其它各地都已上升，认为它在亚洲也会有一定程度的上升是很合乎情理的。但是加州大学的大卫?维克多认为如果中国和韩国在海外建造反应堆的成本比国内高不了太多，那么也许核能会在其它地方获得青睐。西屋电气和法国电力都有计划和中国合作方一起设计销售新反应堆以供出口。俄罗斯也很热衷于出口PWR，但是其成本目前还不是很清楚。

Inviting the Chinese to come in and build a nuclear plant is an unlikely step for a Western government(though the South Koreans are bidding on a Finnish contract).Some developing countries, though, may be interested.This is a matter of concern for backers of the American nuclear industry with an eye to national security issues, such as Pete Domenici, a former senator.If America is not engaged in the market, how can it use its influence to deter proliferation? 西方政府不太可能邀请中国公司来自己国家建造核电站（虽然韩国公司目前在竞标一座芬兰核电站）。但是一些发展中国家可能会有兴趣。对于支持美国核能行业，同时又关心国家安全问题的人，像是前参议员彼德?多梅尼西来说，这是个很大的问题。如果美国对核能市场都漠不关心，那么美国要怎么用自己的影响力来阻止核扩散呢？

And it will indeed have less scope for such influence.But even at Chinese prices, nuclear energy is expensive compared with coal, and if other countries gain easier access to gas, as America did, that will reduce demand too.Vietnam is enthusiastic about nuclear reactors;other Asian countries, especially those in tectonically active places—such as the Philippines and Indonesia—may be less keen than they were before the great tsunami.South Africa is talking of buying nuclear reactors.India has big plans on paper, but a law that makes the designers(rather than the operators)of power stations liable in case of accidents gets in the way(and buying Chinese reactors might be anathema anyway).There is interest in the Middle East, but as Charles Ebinger of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, points out, the countries talking about buying nuclear power in response to runaway electricity demand might do better to curb their handsome consumer subsidies.They might also do well to invest in alternative energy.The sun’s nuclear reactor has been going for 4.5 billion years, and extracting power from it is getting cheaper every year.美国阻止核扩散的影响力范围将来还会更窄。但是即使以中国的造价来看，核能和煤比起来还是过于昂贵。如果其它国家也像美国那样获得更轻松的天然气来源，这也会降低对核能的需求。越南很热衷于核反应堆。其它的亚洲国家，尤其是那些位于板块活动地区的国家，像是菲律宾和印尼对核反应堆的热衷可能已不如大海啸之前了。南非正在谈论要购买新的核反应堆。印度也有一些大型的纸上计划，但是印度有一条法律要求万一事故发生，核电站的设计方（而不是运作方）需要负责，这可能阻碍了核电的发展。另外印度可能本来就对向中国购买核反应堆非常反感。中东对核电很感兴趣，但是智囊机构布鲁金斯学院的查尔斯?俄宾格指出：对于那些在谈论购买核能以应付大幅飙升的用电需求的国家来说，减少它们高昂的消费者补贴也许是更好的办法。投资替代能源也可能是不错的作法。太阳内部的核反应堆已经运作了45亿年了，而且随着时间过去从它那儿提取能量正在变得越来越便宜。

译者注

Bandwagon effect汉密尔顿说，对中国购物者进行教育，告诉他们交易背后的血腥，能对保护野生动物起到积极作用。目前在中国正有这样一场公益广告战役已经打响，他们由一些中国名人来发起号召，比如篮球明星姚明，斯诺克运动员丁俊晖，请求人们不要购买濒临灭绝的动物的产品。他们说，“没有买卖，就没有杀戮。”

http://ecocn.org/thread-64947-1-1.html 译者：songz2000

[2012.03.10]Creation story 创造的故事 The history of computing 计算机史

Creation story 创造的故事

Computing’s long and twisted past 计算机漫长而又曲折的过去 Mar 10th 2012 | from the print edition

Turing’s Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe.By George Dyson.Pantheon;401 pages;$29.95.Allen Lane;￡25.Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk 《图灵 [注]大教堂：数字世界的起源》。乔治?戴森（George Dyson）著。美国万神庙出版社，售价29.95美元；英国阿伦?雷恩出版社，售价25英镑。Amazon.com与Amazon.co.uk网上有售。

“I AM thinking about something much more important than bombs,” John von Neumann remarked in 1946.“I am thinking about computers.” The Hungarian-born mathematical genius knew that weapons and computers were closely intertwined.During the second world war computers had been built to crack codes(Colossus, in Britain)and calculate artillery firing tables(ENIAC, in America).But these were dedicated machines built to perform specific tasks.“我正在考虑一些远比炸弹重要的东西，”约翰?冯?诺依曼1946年这样说，“我正在考虑计算机。”这位生于匈牙利的数学天才知道，武器与计算机紧密相关。人们在二战期间建造了计算机来破译密码（如英国的Colossus计算机）与计算炮队火力表（如美国的ENIAC计算机）。但这些是为专项任务建造的专用计算机。

Von Neumann dreamed of building a far more flexible and powerful general-purpose computer, the theoretical capabilities of which had been determined in the 1930s by Alan Turing, a British mathematician.As the cold war began, along came the perfect opportunity: the hydrogen bomb, whose construction would require detailed mathematical modelling.Von Neumann did a deal with his American military paymasters.They got their bomb, and the scientists got their computer, a key ancestor of all modern machines.The subsequent explosion of computing changed the world.冯?诺依曼幻想着制造一台灵活性与功能都要强大得多的通用计算机。这种计算机的理论性能是由英国数学家阿伦?图灵在20世纪30年代确定的。冷战的开始带来了一个绝好的机会：制造氢弹需要建立详尽的数学模型。冯?诺依曼与美国军需主管达成了一项协议。最后，军方得到了炸弹，而科学家们得到计算机——所有现代计算机的关键始祖。计算能力随后的爆炸性发展改变了整个世界。

As George Dyson explains in “Turing’s Cathedral”, von Neumann was just as excited by the other possibilities opened up by computers, from artificial life to weather forecasting.But the hydrogen-bomb project offered him the freedom and the money to build a new type of computer: a “stored-program” machine that could be reconfigured quickly to perform different tasks by changing its software, rather than rewiring its hardware.

第四篇：砖厂月经营报告

尊敬的公司领导：

您好，现将砖厂2005年11月份经营情况汇报如下:

一、产量

11月份我们生产标准砖，因维修保养设备、耗用1天，生产天数为29天，共生产标准砖224万块，砖厂月经营报告。

1-11月份累计生产标准砖1981.5万块，步道砖5万块，路边石4179块,24空心砖1.3万块。

二、销售

11月实现销售收入52.4万元，较上月有较大幅度的上升,，11月销售标准砖213万块，对内销售205万块（吕格庄猪厂：150.2万块）对外销售8万块；实现销售收入51.8万元，其中对内实现收入50.2万元，对外实现收入1.6万元。主要原因是吕格庄猪厂的开工，大量的需求标准砖。另外销售步道砖2100块，路边石388块。

1－11月销售标准砖1508.7万块，实现销售收入343.5万元，其中对内实现收入167.4万元，对外实现收入176.1万元。1-11月份累计销售24cm空心砖6564块，19cm空心砖8432块，步道砖5.7万块，路边石6540块。

三、成本及盈利

1、本月单位生产成本0.14元/块，较上月降低0.01元/块，主要是本月产量较上月有所上升，单位成本（含管理费用）0.18元/块，比上月上升0.01元/块，主要是本月运费比上月有所上升。

2、本月实现利润：8.2万元，现有库存标准砖535万块，正常销售出去，预计利润6.5万元。

四、日常管理

1、安全情况：安全是工作的重点，11月16日学习了莱阳市建筑业管理处文件，要求安检部门严格按照文件规定做好冬季安全生产的注意事项。安全检查小组认真组织检查，自查自纠工作中存在的问题，全面的对厂内安全生产情况进行检查，尤其针对冬季生产应注意的防冻、防滑工作及安全使用电气设备是冬季生产应注意的“四防”问题，告诫广大职工无论在生活上还是在工作中，都要时时把安全工作放在首位，在保证人身、设备安全的情况下顺利开展工作。对冬季安全用电问题做为重点进行了强调，要求每位住宿舍的员工必须严格遵守安全用电管理规定，电热毯私拉乱接，折叠，及无人时插电热毯的现象绝不不允许出现，对不能落实好安全用电管理规定的宿舍舍长进行严厉处分。进入冬季摩托车的驾乘转变成安全的点，冬季经常出现风雪天气，这需要对行车驾驶者作出更严格的要求，所以我们要求驾车员工必须配带防护措施，限速行车，并持有效证件驾车，对无证人员要严格监督，绝对不允许驾车上路，发现一次罚款50元，工作汇报《砖厂月经营报告》。安全检查小组成员宋和宏、李凯对车间生产情况进行了检查，检查中发现西车间安全标志不能按照规定悬挂，发现问题后立即组织当班班组长梁启伟进行了整改，并对其进行了严厉的批评及教育。经过长期的对员工进行安全宣传教育，增强了他们的安全意识，取得了可喜的成果。

2、设备情况：对设备的保养情况和安全情况每个星期进行一次大检查，加强机械设备的维护，努力降低设备的折旧。每月10、20、30号由车间主任带头，带领车间操作人员对设备的注油点，操作规程等方面进行培训，并进行现场演练，月底统一对本月的学习内容进行理论考核和实际操作，实行末尾淘汰制。对操作不符合要求的人员不得操作该机械，转入候补人员，工资下调一级，由替补顶替，替补人员的工资上调一级。

3、管理软件建设：建立健全了办公用品费用控制实施意见、物资验收入库及物资领用发放、采取各种措施充分调动各班组、各负责人加强成本管理的积极性。

4、学习情况：11月28日-30日组织全体员工学习了公民安全知识普及读本中第八部分燃气安全，第一、二、三、四章进行了学习。并强调了家庭用气及火炉的安全注意事项，严防煤气中毒事件。由于轮碾机本身的质量问题导致的轮碾机故障，虽不是人为造成，但我们还是要加强职工操作技能，杜绝因操作不当造成的故障，耽误车间生产。12月1日，我们就组织了两个班的搅拌机工学习了搅拌机各部件的结构性能及特点，各处注油点及加注油的类型及数量，搅拌机的操作注意事项等。

五、节能降耗，节约挖潜

由于砖厂的地面不是硬化地面，每当下雨，地面就变得比较松软，运输车辆的行走给地面留下道道车痕，码砖的场地变得极不平整，这就需要经常用装载机修整场地，经过几次的修整，发现装载机的铲斗磨损比较严重，于是我们把废旧轮胎割断，套在铲斗的下沿，结果显示，场地不但变得更加平整，而且又不磨损机械。

严格控制河沙的质量，对于含石子较多的沙坚决不收，因含石子较多的河沙平均每日要多消耗2.5方沙，按照每方14.5元计算，每天我们节约36.3元，一个月节省1000余元。

在不影响工作的情况下，对照明灯的开灯时间实行专人管制，严格控制各种机械的开机时间，减少无用工的付出，在11月份产量比10月份产量增加18万块标准砖的情况下，我们比上月节省656度电，安每度电0.64元计算，本月节约用电419元。

11月份节约用电656千瓦时，节约河沙75方，合计减少支出1419元。

六、下月计划

1、加强卫生的检查力度，搞好环境卫生，进行文明建设。

2、加强安全宣传，增强安全意识，提高产品质量。

3、实行创新精神，节约挖潜，控制各项支出，降低生产成本。

第五篇：育林所经济社会发展调查

育林所经济社会发展调查

育林经营所始建于1983年，全所施业区面积13032公顷，辖区居民97户301人。在册职工195人，在岗职工173人。随着林区两危的到来，这个经营所可采资源最先走向枯竭，经济向谷底直线下滑，各种社会矛盾突显，历史包袱沉重，不稳定因素剧增，一度成为全区典型的小老穷经营所。为了摆脱困境，求

生存，经营所在发展多种经营项目上也做出了一些努力，他们办过蝉厂、种植过木耳、养殖过狗，前后一共发展过19个项目，但都没有形成规模，大多夭折。

地理偏僻，土地少、信息闭塞、缺少技能，首先导致职工群众发展新项目不敢迈步。这个经营所位于区置西部，没有毗邻的林场所，职工生活在一个闭塞的环境中，与外界联系的少，思想认识落后，素质较低。这个所施业区内虽有土地20多公顷，但仅有50亩土地属于这个经营所，由于没建所前，金峰和丰北的一些农民已经在这里开垦经营土地延续至今。此外，这里属浅山区，无霜期80天，只能种一些普通大田，连经济效益较高的黄豆在这里都不能丰收。其次，缺乏资金，缺少能人困挠职工群众发展自营经济。由于体制问题，以前大部分的项目都是经营所搞的，许多项目始终没发展起来。

这个经营所施业区面积虽然相对其它林场所较大，但资源匮乏，所能生产的全部是小杆小料，已经两年没有主伐生产任务，营林生产也只是几个月，全年生产任务量只相当于其它林场所一个段队的生产任务量。职工长年没活，原来只是季节性采山有一点收入，职工家庭经济发展也是小打小闹，丰丽林场袋装木耳发展到400万袋时，这个经营所只有4万多袋。职工勉强维持温饱，林场所接续产业的发展、场容场貌、职工年平均收入等均排在全区11个林场所的倒数几位。

面对着严峻的生存压力和全区各林场所竞相发展的紧迫形势，几届领导班子都做出不懈努力，特别是新一届党政领导一班人，新一届班子找出了困挠这个地方发展经济的症结，实事求是地确立了符合育林所实际的经济发展思路，依托自身优势，以建设生态经营所为主攻方向，以做强百姓经济，提高职工群众收入为核心目标，以加强企业管理为重点，把工作的手段和方式由管理型向服务型转变。带领全所职工在困境中抉择，积极创造了自身发展的曙光，迈出了缓危解困的坚实一步，全所经济得到快速发展，所容所貌大为改观，经营所上下充满活力，初步形成了民富所兴的良好态势。

一、说破嘴皮不如做出样子

场所一班人改说功为做功。新一届党政班子认识到率先发展多种经营，他们知道老百姓这几年发展家庭经济赔了不少，大多数人对于发展多种经营已经有为难情绪，不敢轻意的把仅有的维持生活周转金再投入到项目上。林木资源已枯竭，靠什么振兴场所经济？他们在“摸石过河”的过程中走在了群众前面，首先是领着群众干。在不与民争利的前提下，班子成员率先发展多种经营，本着“喊千遍万遍，不如亲自干一件”的原则，用行动带动群众，用效果引导群众。为了寻找适合当地实际发展而且有利于推广普及的项目，班子成员5人绞尽脑汁，每人都发展起了自己的项目，而且不重复。

原书记罗宇平（于2004年12月被区委任命为丰林林场书记）选准了种植五味子，他把原来班子集体培植的20万株五味子苗全部买下来继续培育，请来林科院专家进行技术指导后，又从带岭引进株速生丰产杨树种，种植在10公顷林间空地上，准备五味子成苗后移植到杨树冠下，这样既有利于五味子生长，又能进行植树造林，虽然五味子要5年才见效益，但它的利润却十分可观，他的20万株五味子5年后预计产五味子10万公斤，收入可达60万元，除去5年的费用元，纯收入。

所长贾立军带头响应区委、区政府大力发展鹿经济的号召，从事养鹿。决定养鹿后，他并没有盲目购进鹿，他觉得这是一个新项目，对技术、信息、市场都不了解，如果自己没起好这个带头作用，职工群众对这个新兴的项目更没有信心。于是他把自己内弟送到双阳一养鹿户无偿打工，学技术近一年，他承担了费用近3000元，然后在双阳购进品质优良梅花鹿28头，经过年的饲养繁殖到40头，今年卖出31头，收入30万元，除去人工和本钱净赚元。下一步他还将购入头马鹿，与梅花鹿进行杂交，扩大生产规模，提高鹿群质量。

工会主席刘艳君“看中”的是养野猪。一次去双丰，他经朋友介绍，了解到饲养野猪是一个好项目，野猪肉口感细腻，市场畅销，1斤肉可达15元，利润可观，而且容易饲养，1年出栏，繁殖力强。于是多次到双丰养野猪大王高立平养殖场进行考察学习后，购进4头种猪，由于育林所山上野猪较多，常常下山祸害庄稼，因此他决定在育林所山上进行半家化驯养野猪，便于到繁育期时，种猪与山上散生的野猪繁殖2代，这样既能提高野猪的品质又能保护庄稼。今年只是试养阶段，明年他准备与双丰高立平联营，扩大规模，发展野猪100头。

班子其他两名成员负责多种经

营工作的副所长高安庆带头发展袋装木耳，今年种植2万袋，纯收入1万元。生产副所长王爱军带领一个段队集体种植滑子蘑2万袋，收入也比较可观。

班子成员在带头发展起家庭经济的同时每个人还带动起百姓发展家庭经济，贾所长把自己饲养品质优良的九头鹿以低价卖给自己帮扶的养鹿户。仅班子成员发展经济每年安置季节性劳动力近30人。通过班子的示

范引导，现已带动起全所职工发展家庭经济的热情。

其次，帮助群众办。以思想解放为先导，提供政策扶持、技术指导、信息服务。为了帮助职工群众把家庭特色经济做大做强，所领导班子倾注了全部的力量，通过召开班子会、座谈会，与每个职工面对面、心贴心交流沟通，介绍外地鲜活经验等，首先从职工思想大解放入手，并提出“你无项目我引导，你无资金我联系，你无技术我服务，你无市场我帮助”。一是在政策上扶持，帮助担保小额贷款，解决小材小料，提供厂房等。这个所发展黑木耳比其它单位慢，主要原因是职工群众积累少，没有更多的资金投入发展，加之对贷款有顾虑，怕到期还不上，所里了解到这一情况马上与信用社联系，采取场方认定，职工5户联保方式发放了小额贷款，共计贷款17万元，职工有了资金，发展黑木耳的积极性十分高涨，种植户比去年多了32户41.9万袋。又与资源等相关部门协调，每户解决袋装木耳搭架子用小杆50根，每根仅收5角钱。还将场所闲置的厂房免费或低价提供给职工群众，用于从事多种经营。二是在技术上指导，坚持科技为先，以质量为根本。班子成员带头学习技术，引导职工人被动灌输变为主动咨询。多次请来农科院专家入户指导，还专门长期聘请了一名懂种植、养殖技术的技术员，解决职工日常遇到的技术难题。三是提供信息服务，通过网络、媒体、走出去考察学习，进一步丰富拓宽了职工群众的视野，了解了更多的致富信息，使其找到更适合发展的项目。为了寻找职工群众增收新出路，经过班子考察研究，从大连引进了滑子蘑栽培项目，由于滑子蘑栽培技术与袋装木耳相似，但它属于低温菌种，不用高温发酵，易储存，成本也比袋装木耳低，每吨售价要比袋装木耳高元，是一个林区发展前景广阔的项目。开始上滑子蘑项目是采取班子成员与职工合股的形式，但由于技术原因，滑子蘑的产量和品质始终上不去，致使赔了一些钱，但班子成员对此没有放弃，认准了这是一个具有发展潜力的项目，多次派副所长高安庆到大连学习滑子蘑栽培技术，掌握外地销售情况。经过近三年的摸索实践，育林所的滑子蘑栽培已初见成效。种植大户李培军现已每年发展达3万袋，年收入1万余元。

几分耕耘几分收获，领导干部率先垂范作用在育林所得到了验证，经过近两年的实践，这里的多种经营经济发展已是如火如荼。目前，育林所不仅每户都有经营项目，人人有事做，而且一家有2、3个经营项目已是普遍。袋装木耳发展到72户71.9万袋，滑子蘑8户6万袋。养牛95头，养羊110只，养鹿头，养鸡4000只。发展民有林14户。2004年全所各项生产总值达元，纯收入元，人均收入由2003年的2010元跃升到目前的元，富有特色的育林所经济已经成为金山屯场所经济发展的一个新亮点。

二、开源节流赋予新内涵

面对经济危困和林木资源枯竭的双重压力，育林所党政一班人不等不靠、审时度势，以先进的经营理念武装自己的头脑，发挥自身优势，采取扎实有效的措施，抓改革、强管理，经营资源借外力。

1、经营资源生财

1993年4月初，退休干部，原市营林局局长佟枝春看准育林所，在其施业区开始试办家庭林场，承包育林所施业区低价林、宜林荒山荒地4个林班，总面积2400公顷。11年来，在林业局和育林所的帮助下，建房、仓库、机库、井房、畜舍500平方米，累计造林161.7公顷。

这里民有林发展已初具规模的同时，原育林所职工赵宝峰的红松架接树苗也在大面积栽植，形成了以培植红松果为主的民有林示范基地。红松果架接树果是采用科技手段对小兴安岭红松果实的一种架接，果实成熟比正常红松早30—40年，是我们林区经济发展的一个好项目，他的做法已被《黑龙江日报》中央电视4台报道，民有林面积已达265.9公顷。另外他还将管护区内修建的旅游度假区，发展旅游业。

兴办家庭林场，发展民有林，是森林经营体制上的突破和创新，在增强经营所经济实力，促进家庭经济发展，拓宽就业门路的同时，加快了森林的保护和培育步伐。以制度的形式将责任人对林间林缘空地的使用权加以确定，使职工家庭经济从房前屋后的小天地向森林管护的大舞台，激发调动了责任人管护森林和发展责任区经济的内在动力，为绿起来和富起来奠定了坚实群众基础。

此外，育林所还结合自身特点，发挥山梨资源优势，引来金润果酒有限公司在育林所建立起了30公顷的原料基地，经过一年人工管护和果树栽培，增加了山梨数量。在建立山梨基地的同时，还将建起以旅游为主的梨花观赏园，机关干部义务铺垫通往梨树沟沙石路200多延长米，并修建梨树沟停车场一处。下一步将在这里筹建起五味子、刺五加基地，并使之逐渐形成规模。

仅招商引资这一项，拓宽了就业门路，安置劳动力50人，每年给所里创造效益元。

2、强化管理“节”财。为了求得经营所发展振兴，所领导牢固树立了过紧日子的思想，从小处算，从细处省，坚持做到少花钱多办事，不花钱也办事。千方百计向管理要效益。

一是减人压费。为了节省开支，裁减了机关管理人员1名，段队管理人员1名，后勤服务人员2名，只留一名更夫，白天还兼职负责清理卫生，晚上由两名机关干部值班。食堂也只在春秋两季防火期间开伙，其他时间一律停伙，食堂没有厨师和服务员用机关四名女干部轮流做饭，每顿饭的标准总计不能超过20元。通过严格控制非生产人员支出，使非生产性支出每年减少7000多元。

二是收摊减费。今年进行了锅炉改造，换上了新式节能锅炉，提高了煤的转热量，取暖面积由原来的1600多平方米减少到现在的800平方米，每年节省原煤80吨，节约用电度，节支元。强化了招待费管理，所党政班子成员基本上不到饭店就餐，对于必须招待的去地区买菜到食堂自己做，每年节省招待费元。严格控制不必要的支出，严格审核差旅费，对情况不符的坚决不予签字。严格控制办公费的使用，年初制定计划，由所长审核把关，确保了每一笔钱都用在了刀刃上。

三是封车节支。这个所仅有的一台旧吉普车，已经运行9年多，各部件已经破损，而且费油，为了节约，进行了封车，班子成员全部骑摩托车上下班，对原小车司机进行了分流转岗，每年可节约小车汽油费、养路费、机械维修费、小车司机工资约1万元。

三、把实事做在群众心坎上

这个所的党政领导班子之所以能够受到职工群众的拥护，就是因为他们能够以解决百姓困难为己任，以百姓满意为准则，以加快发展全所经济奔小康为出发点和落脚点。心中勤想百姓难，双腿勤走百姓门，手头勤办百姓事，是他们一心为百姓办实事的真实写照。

一是改善环境，美化家园干在前。为了改善林场所环境，开展了一次“清卫生、搞绿化、净庭院、美家园”活动，首先对居民区街道进行了重新规划，所领导带头，全民义务劳动，共清出垃圾104车，新挖排水沟2000延长米，铺垫居民区街道用沙子131车，新修主道涵洞5个，巷道涵洞22个，拆除杖子800多延长米，清出拌子40多榴，新栽绿化树5900多棵。为了使职工群众有一个休闲娱乐场所，本着少花钱多办事的原则，他们把场里会一点手艺的人专门送到伊春水上公园进行学习后，只花了元，自行修建起了一处400平方米造型别致的灯光文化广场。

二是添砖加瓦，扶贫解困。党政班子经过亲自入户走访，分类排查，与困难户结成一帮一扶贫对子。职工孩子没钱上学，由班子带头捐款元。职工群众只要有事，班子必到。职工婚丧嫁娶，把食堂免费提供。育林所原来只有一口井在场部，冬季经常冻，要排队挑水，为此场子在水房安装了暖气，保证长年供水。同时，找来技术人员，发动3至5户居民合打一口井，并装上了水表，解决吃水难问题。由个人承包出资1.5万元，使有线电视频道由2个增加到了10个。

三是密切联系，凝聚人心。育林所党政班子无论做什么，心里首先想到的就是群众，他们把群众的利益放在了高于一切的位置，开始进行街道规划时，有许多群众不理解，班子成员就先从钉子户做工作，用自己的行动证明给职工群众看，规划清理街道是为了让群众有一个好的舒心的生活环境。在班子言行带动下，每户义务出工一人，共出工2600多人次，没有发生一分钱的工时费。劳动结束后，班子成员为了凝聚人心，鼓励职工群众，买了40本影集，开了一次表彰大会，对于在劳动中表现突出给予奖励。平日所里还组织一些喜闻乐见的文体活动，干部群众一同参与，丰富了业余文化生活。

他们为职工群众做的每一件事同时也深深的印在了群众的心中。今年秋整地期间，育林所的任务是1600亩，此时正赶上收山，采山一天收入要比秋整地干活工钱多得多，很难组织上劳动力。当群众们知道了这件事后，他们说：“我们有困难的时候知道找场子，现在场子有难处的时候我们也应该全力以赴。”于是很快他们就组织起了精干劳力30多人，中午自己带饭，只用了15天就高质量的完成了任务。所长贾立军也深受感动，每天都和这些人一起去公里的作业点劳动。最后一天，让所有的机关人员都到山上去亲自体验生活，也看看这些职工群众是怎么干的，使干群关系进一步密切，增强了战胜困难的合力。

育林所在超常的压力下，敢于突破一切发展的阻碍，使企业重新焕发了生机。事实再次证明，困难企业要生存，必须要有一个团结合作，敢打硬仗的领导班子；必须要有一套打破固有思维定势，创新经营的工作思路；必须要时刻坚持“以人为本”的理念，调动人民群众的积极性和创造性。正是这些可贵的做法才能在困难面前所迸发出的巨大创造力，让我们领悟了许多破解发展难题的真谛。目前，育林所正加足马力，奔向经济发展的快车道。相信，育林所的明天充满希望。