David Cameron在苏格兰公投前的演讲

第一篇：David Cameron在苏格兰公投前的演讲

David Cameron’s Last Speech in Scotland Before Referendum

We meet in a week that could change the United Kingdom forever.Indeed, it could end the United Kingdom as we know it.On Thursday, Scotland votes, and the future of our country is at stake.On Friday, people could be living in a different country, with a different place in the world and a different future ahead of it.This is a decision that could break up our family of nations, and rip Scotland from the rest of the UK.And we must be very clear.There’s no going back from this.No re-run.This is a once-and-for-all decision.If Scotland votes yes, the UK will split, and we will go our separate ways forever.When people vote on Thursday they are not just voting for themselves, but for their children and grandchildren and the generations beyond.So I want to speak directly to the people of this country today about what is at stake.I speak for millions of people across England, Wales and Northern Ireland – and many in Scotland, too who would be utterly heart-broken by the break-up of the United Kingdom.Utterly heart-broken to wake up on Friday morning to the end of the country we love to know that Scots would no longer join with the English, Welsh and Northern Irish in our Army, Navy and Air Force..in our UK-wide celebrations and commemorations, in UK sporting teams from the Olympics to the British Lions.The United Kingdom would be no more.No UK pensions, no UK passports, no UK pound.The greatest example of democracy the world has ever known, of openness of people of different nationalities and faiths coming together as one, would be no more.It would be the end of a country that launched the Enlightenment, that abolished slavery that drove the industrial revolution, that defeated fascism...The end of a country that people around the world respect and admire the end of a country that all of us call home.And we built this home together.It’s only become Great Britain because of the greatness of Scotland.Because of the thinkers, writers, artists, leaders, soldiers, inventors who have made this country what it is.It’s Alexander Fleming and David Hume;J.K.Rowling and Andy Murray and all the millions of people who have played their part in this extraordinary success story...the Scots who led the charge on pensions and the NHS and on social justice.We did all this together.For the people of Scotland to walk away now would be like painstakingly building a home – and then walking out the door and throwing away the keys.So I would say to everyone voting on Thursday, please remember.This isn’t just any old country.This is the United Kingdom.This is our country.And you know what makes us truly great? It’s not our economic might or military prowess – it’s our values.British values.Fairness.Freedom.Justice.The values that say wherever you are, whoever you are, your life has dignity and worth.The values that say we don’t walk on by when people are sick that we don’t ask for your credit card in the hospital that we don’t turn our backs when you get old and frail.That we don’t turn a blind eye or a cold heart to people around the world who are desperate and crying out for help.This is what Britain means.This is what makes us the greatest country on earth.And it’s why millions of us could not bear to see that country ending – for good, for ever – on Friday.Now I know that there are many people across Scotland who are planning to vote Yes.I understand why this might sound appealing.It’s the promise of something different.I also know that the people who are running the Yes campaign are painting a picture of a Scotland that is better in every way, and they can be good at painting that picture.But when something looks too good to be true – that’s usually because it is.And it is my duty to be clear about the likely consequences of a Yes Vote.Independence would not be a trial separation.It would be a painful divorce.And as Prime Minister I have to tell you what that would mean.It would mean we no longer share the same currency.It would mean the armed forces we have built up together over centuries being split up forever.It would mean our pension funds sliced up – at some cost.It would mean the borders we have would become international and may no longer be so easily crossed.It would mean the automatic support that you currently get from British embassies when you’re travelling around the world would come to an end.It would mean over half of Scottish mortgages suddenly, from one day to the next, being provided by banks in a foreign country.It would mean that interest rates in Scotland are no longer set by the Bank of England – with the stability and security that promises.It would meanno country is.Of course we must constantly change and improve people’s lives.No-one is content while there are still children living in poverty.No-one is content while there are people struggling, and young people not reaching their potential.Yes, every political party is different.But we are all of us – Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Nationalists – on a constant mission to change our country for the better.The question is: how do you get that change? For me it’s simple.You don’t get the change you want by ripping your country apart.You don’t get change by undermining your economy and damaging your businesses and diminishing your place in the world.But you can get real, concrete change on Thursday: if you vote No.*Business as usual’ is not on the ballot paper.The status quo is gone.This campaign has swept it away.There is no going back to the way things were.A vote for No means real change.And we have spelled that change out in practical terms, with a plan and a process.If we get a No vote on Thursday, that will trigger a major, unprecedented programme of devolution with additional powers for the Scottish Parliament.Major new powers over tax, spending and welfare services.We have agreed a timetable for that stronger Scottish Parliament: a time-table to bring in the new powers that will go ahead if there is a No vote a White Paper by November, put into draft legislation by January.This is a timetable that is now agreed by all the main political parties and set in stone and I am prepared to work with all the main parties to deliver this during 2015.So a No vote actually means faster, fairer, safer and better change.And this is a vital point: Scotland is not an observer in the affairs of this country.Scotland is shaping and changing the United Kingdom for the better – more so today than at any point in the last three hundred years and will continue to help shape the constitution of our country.And Scottish people can enjoy the additional powers its Parliament gives without losing the UK pension, the UK pound or the UK passport.Real change is Scotland’s for the taking.The power to set your own course and make your own decisions, with the security of being in the UK,without the risks of going it alone.It’s the best of both worlds.Scotland’s identity is already strong, strong Scottish culture, strong Scottish arts, a strong Church of Scotland, and in the last 15 years you have built a strong Scottish Parliament, not a fleeting institution but a permanent one.So the vote on Thursday is not about whether Scotland is a nation.Scotland is a proud, strong, successful nation.The vote on Thursday is about two competing visions for Scotland’s future.The Nationalists’ vision of narrowing down, going it alone, breaking all ties with the UK.Or the patriotic vision of a strong Scottish nation allied to the rest of the United Kingdom with its own stronger Scottish Parliament at its heart and with the benefits of working together in the UK on jobs, pensions, healthcare funding, the currency, interest rates.It really is the best of both worlds and it’s the best way to get real change and secure a better future for your children and grandchildren.And speaking of family – that is quite simply how I feel about this.We are a family.The United Kingdom is not one nation.We are four nations in a single country.That can be difficult but it is wonderful.Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland, different nations, with individual identities competing with each other even at times enraging each other, while still being so much stronger together.We are a family of nations.Why should the next generation of that family be forced to choose whether to identify only with Edinburgh or only with London, choose which embassy they want to go to when they are in trouble abroad, or pack their passport when they*re going to see friends and loved ones.A family is not a compromise, or a second best, it is a magical identity, that makes us more together than we can ever be apart so please – do not break this family apart.In human relations it’s almost never a good thing to turn away from each other, put up walls, score new lines on the map.Why would we take one Great Britain and turn it into separate smaller nations? What is that an answer to? How will that help the ambitious young people who want to make their mark on the world, or the pensioner who just wants security, or the family relying on jobs make in the UK? Let no-one fool you that ‘Yes’ is a positive vision.It*s about dividing people, closing doors, making foreigners of our friends and family.This isn’t an optimistic vision.The optimistic vision is of our family of nations staying together, there for each other in the hard times, coming through to better times.We’ve just pulled through a great recession together.We’re moving forward together.The road has been long but it is finally leading upwards, and that’s why I ask you to vote No to walking away.Vote No – and you are voting for a bigger and broader and better future for Scotland, and you are investing in the future for your children and grandchildren.So this is our message to the people of Scotland.We want you to stay.Head and heart and soul, we want you to stay.Please: don’t mix up the temporary and the permanent.Don’t think: I’m frustrated with politics right now, so I’ll walk out the door and never come back.If you don’t like me – I won’t be here forever.If you don’t like this Government – it won’t last forever.But if you leave the UK – that will be forever.Yes, the different parts of the UK don’t always see eye-to-eye.Yes, we need change – and we will deliver it.But to get that change, to get a brighter future, we don’t need to tear our country apart.In two days, this long campaign will be at an end.And as you stand in the stillness of the polling booth, I hope you will ask yourself this.Will my family and I truly be better off by going it alone? Will we really be more safe and secure? Do I really want to turn my back on the rest of Britain, and why is it that so many people across the world are asking: why would Scotland want to do that? Why? And if you don’t know the answer to these questions – then vote No.At the end of the day, all the arguments of this campaign can be reduced to a single fact.We are better together.So as you reach your final decision, please: Don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t be a proud Scot and a proud Brit.Don’t lose faith in what this country is – and what we can be.Don’t forget what a great United Kingdom you are part of.Don*t turn your backs on what is the best family of nations in the world and the best hope for your family in this world.So please, from all of us: Vote to stick together...Vote to stay......Vote to save our United Kingdom.

第二篇：浅谈苏格兰公投

浅谈 “苏格兰公投”和英国人的“妥协”精神

北京时间2014年9月19日，“苏格兰独立公投”结果出炉，55%选民投下反对票，对独立说―不‖。反独立阵营获胜，苏格兰将继续作为大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国的一部分，维持英国统一现状。

首先分析一下为什么苏格兰独立运动会发展到今天这种地步？从历史上看，苏格兰和英格兰这两个王国在历史上就一直争斗不断。十七世纪末，英格兰控制世界海上霸权，经济发展独步全球。与之形成鲜明对比是，由于森严的贸易壁垒和海上战争的失利，苏格兰的经济发展之路变得举步维艰，国内矛盾尖锐。为了摆脱这一困境，享受英格兰经济发展红利，1707年5月1日，《英格兰及苏格兰王国合并条约》正式生效，苏格兰正式“嫁给”英格兰。上世纪70年代，苏格兰北部发现了北海油田，为争取更大的利益，“苏独”运动重新抬头并日益高涨。英国政府迫于苏格兰民意的压力，先是恢复取消了近三百年的苏格兰议会，接着2012年卡梅伦政府同苏格兰首席部长萨尔蒙德签署公投协议，规定于2014年9月18日就“苏格兰是否应该成为一个独立国家”举行公投，并且英国政府将承认公投的结果。毫无疑问，9月18的公投是一场真正的大决战！

其次为什么英国政府会同意苏格兰的公投？这一点中国人可能很难理解，要是香港举行独立公投，中国政府断然不会答应！同意公投源于英国人固有的“妥协”精神，这种精神最早源于英国资产阶级革命。1688年，光荣革命确立了英国资产阶级的统治地位，但同时一定程度地保留了封建统治。光荣革命以不流血的方式完成，保持了政局和社会稳定，为工业革命铺平了道路。这种“妥协”精神，还表现为非暴力不合作运动，对世界反殖民运动的反应以及香港问题的解决。二战以后，主要欧洲殖民国家力量大幅削弱，世界殖民体系土崩瓦解，英国人并不全力以赴地镇压反抗运动，而是审时度势，见好就收，与绝大多数独立运动领导人达成妥协性协议，最大限度地保留英国的影响力。1984年，英国首相撒切尔与邓小平签署《中英联合声明》，虽然交出了主权，但是其经济、法律制度等影响力仍然将在香港继续保留50年不变。1947年，抛出“蒙巴顿方案‖，承认印度和巴基斯坦的独立，但是两国独立后仍为英联邦成员，且独立后的两国斗争不断，印度数十年的世界大国梦仍然只是纸上谈兵。傲慢，保守，自由，实际主义者，是英国人的标签，”妥协“并不懦弱是这些性格的行为表现。

这场看似冒险的政治赌博，以苏格兰继续留在联合王国结束，彻底粉碎苏格兰民族独立运动愈演愈烈的势头，苏格兰民主党领袖萨尔蒙德黯然下台。其实投票的结果早在预料之中，精明的英国政治家断然不会愚蠢到去冒险分裂300年的联合王国。未来的不确定性和独立后的诸多不利，300年联合王国的辉煌历史让很大一部分人仍然无法割舍热爱的英国。卡梅伦政府寻思，与其让独立运动愈发不可收拾，不如以退为进，用一次公投一劳永逸的解决未来可能面临的更严重的国家分裂问题。正像卡梅伦在公投之前的演讲中讲到：“We could have blocked that, we could have put it off but just as with other big issues, it was right to takethe big decision。”—— “我们本可以阻止公投，也可以将其推迟——但这就像其他问题一样，接受重大的决定才是正确的，而不是进行躲避。”结果公布之后卡梅伦在唐宁街10号首相官邸门前发表公开讲话：“The people of Scotland have spoken.It is a clear result.They have kept our country of four nations together.Like millions of other people, I am delighted。——苏格兰人民做出了选择。这是一个清晰的结果。他们选择继续一起组成我们的国家。和数百万人民一样，我非常高兴。” “So there can be no disputes, no re-runs – we have heard the settled will of the Scottish people。”——“因此结论无可争议，也不会重来，我们已经听到了苏格兰人民的坚定愿望。”

如果仔细分析一下，不难发现苏格兰独立运动其实很难获得很难成功。第一，英国的主体英格兰控制着英国的政治、经济和话语权，苏格兰的政治、经济、金融和军事大权被中央政府所掌控，独立影后要重建这些系统的难度不小。BBC、伦敦金融时报、每日邮报等主流媒体均被中央政府控制，苏格兰人的话语权十分有限。第二，公投之前的民调显示大部分的时间反独阵营是占优势的，这还是在反独阵营未使出全力大力宣传的情况下的结果，直到公投前夕，民调首次出现微弱逆转，卡梅伦政府才十万火急的煽情演讲，卖力宣传，各大媒体也是助力反独阵营，在胡萝卜加大棒的组合拳下，独立派孤掌难鸣，败下阵来。第二，苏格兰王国虽然占英国国土的近1/3，但是其人口和经济却不到英国总量的1/10，英国政府给予苏格兰的补助比其税收还多得多，这也是很多人不支持独立的原因之一。另外一个很重要的原因是英国人的傲慢，这种傲慢来自于哪里？来源于“我是英国人‖的自我认同，来源于近代史中三百年的辉煌史，来源于英国文化在世界上的影响力，这其实包含着很重要的爱国思想。

这场公投的本质是一场实力不对称的竞选——独立派必败无疑的竞选。

第三篇：卡梅伦在苏格兰公投前的最后一次演讲

We meet in a week that could change the United Kingdom forever.Indeed, it could end the United Kingdom as we know it.On Thursday, Scotland votes, and the future of our country is at stake.On Friday, people could be living in a different country, with a different place in the world and a different future ahead of it.This is a decision that could break up our family of nations, and rip Scotland from the rest of the UK.And we must be very clear.There’s no going back from this.No re-run.This is a once-and-for-all decision.If Scotland votes yes, the UK will split, and we will go our separate ways forever.When people vote on Thursday they are not just voting for themselves, but for their children and grandchildren and the generations beyond.So I want to speak directly to the people of this country today about what is at stake.I speak for millions of people across England, Wales and Northern Ireland – and many in Scotland, too who would be utterly heart-broken by the break-up of the United Kingdom.Utterly heart-broken to wake up on Friday morning to the end of the country we love, to know that Scots would no longer join with the English, Welsh and Northern Irish in our Army, Navy and Air Force, in our UK-wide celebrations and commemorations, in UK sporting teams from the Olympics to the British Lions.The United Kingdom would be no more.No UK pensions, no UK passports, no UK pound.The greatest example of democracy the world has ever known, of openness, of people of different nationalities and faiths coming together as one, would be no more.It would be the end of a country that launched the Enlightenment, that abolished slavery, that drove the industrial revolution, that defeated fascism.the end of a country that people around the world respect and admire the end of a country that all of us call home.And we built this home together.It’s only become Great Britain because of the greatness of Scotland.Because of the thinkers, writers, artists, leaders, soldiers, inventors who have made this country what it is.It’s Alexander Fleming and David Hume;J.K.Rowling and Andy Murray and all the millions of people who have played their part in this extraordinary success story, the Scots who led the charge on pensions and the NHS and on social justice.We did all this together.For the people of Scotland to walk away now would be like painstakingly building a home – and then walking out the door and throwing away the keys.So I would say to everyone voting on Thursday, please remember.This isn’t just any old country.This is the United Kingdom.This is our country.And you know what makes us truly great?

It’s not our economic might or military prowess – it’s our values.British values.Fairness.Freedom.Justice.The values that say wherever you are, whoever you are, your life has dignity and worth.The values that say we don’t walk on by when people are sick, that we don’t ask for your credit card in the hospital, that we don’t turn our backs when you get old and frail.that we don’t turn a blind eye or a cold heart to people around the world who are desperate and crying out for help.This is what Britain means.This is what makes us the greatest country on earth.And it’s why millions of us could not bear to see that country ending – for good, for ever – on Friday.Now I know that there are many people across Scotland who are planning to vote Yes.I understand why this might sound appealing.It’s the promise of something different.I also know that the people who are running the Yes campaign are painting a picture of a

Scotland that is better in every way, and they can be good at painting that picture.But when something looks too good to be true – that’s usually because it is.And it is my duty to be clear about the likely consequences of a Yes Vote.Independence would not be a trial separation, it would be a painful divorce.And as Prime Minister I have to tell you what that would mean.It would mean the armed forces we have built up together over centuries being split up forever.It would mean our pension funds sliced up – at some cost.It would mean the borders we have would become international and may no longer be so easily crossed.It would mean the automatic support that you currently get from British embassies when you’re travelling around the world would come to an end.It would mean over half of Scottish mortgages suddenly, from one day to the next, being provided by banks in a foreign country.It would mean that interest rates in Scotland are no longer set by the Bank of England – with the stability and security that promises.It would meanno country is.Of course we must constantly change and improve people’s lives.No-one is content while there are still children living in poverty.No-one is content while there are people struggling, and young people not reaching their potential.Yes, every political party is different.But we are all of us – Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Nationalists – on a constant mission to change our country for the better.The question is: how do you get that change? For me it’s simple.You don’t get the change you want by ripping your country apart.You don’t get change by undermining your economy and damaging your businesses and diminishing your place in the world.But you can get real, concrete change on Thursday: if you vote No.'Business as usual’ is not on the ballot paper.The status quo is gone.This campaign has swept it away.There is no going back to the way things were.A vote for No means real change and we have spelled that change out in practical terms, with a plan and a process.If we get a No vote on Thursday, that will trigger a major, unprecedented programme of devolution with additional powers for the Scottish Parliament.Major new powers over tax, spending and welfare services.We have agreed a timetable for that stronger Scottish Parliament: a time-table to bring in the new powers that will go ahead if there is a No vote...a White Paper by November, put into draft legislation by January.This is a timetable that is now agreed by all the main political parties and set in stone and I am prepared to work with all the main parties to deliver this during 2015.So a No vote actually means faster, fairer, safer and better change.And this is a vital point: Scotland is not an observer in the affairs of this country.Scotland is shaping and changing the United Kingdom for the better – more so today than at any point in the last three hundred years and will continue to help shape the constitution of our country.And Scottish people can enjoy the additional powers its Parliament gives without losing the UK pension, the UK pound or the UK passport.Real change is Scotland’s for the taking.The power to set your own course and make your own decisions with the security of being in the UK without the risks of going it alone.It’s the best of both worlds.Scotland’s identity is already strong strong Scottish culture, strong Scottish arts, a strong Church of Scotland and in the last 15 years you have built a strong Scottish Parliament not a fleeting institution but a permanent one.So the vote on Thursday is not about whether Scotland is a nation.Scotland is a proud, strong, successful nation.The vote on Thursday is about two competing visions for Scotland’s future.The Nationalists’ vision of narrowing down, going it alone, breaking all ties with the UK.Or the patriotic vision of a strong Scottish nation allied to the rest of the United Kingdom with its own stronger Scottish Parliament at its heart and with the benefits of working together in the UK on jobs, pensions, healthcare funding, the currency, interest rates.It really is the best of both worlds and it’s the best way to get real change and secure a better future for your children and grandchildren.And speaking of family – that is quite simply how I feel about this.We are a family.The United Kingdom is not one nation.We are four nations in a single country.That can be difficult but it is wonderful.Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland different nations, with individual identities competing with each other even at times enraging each other while still being so much stronger together.We are a family of nations.Why should the next generation of that family be forced to choose whether to identify only with Edinburgh or only with London choose which embassy they want to go to when they are in trouble abroad or pack their passport when they're going to see friends and loved ones.A family is not a compromise, or a second best, it is a magical identity, that makes us more together than we can ever be apart so please – do not break this family apart.In human relations it’s almost never a good thing to turn away from each other, put up walls, score new lines on the map.Why would we take one Great Britain and turn it into separate smaller nations?

What is that an answer to?

How will that help the ambitious young people who want to make their mark on the world or the pensioner who just wants security or the family relying on jobs make in the UK?

Let no-one fool you that ‘Yes’ is a positive vision.It's about dividing people, closing doors, making foreigners of our friends and family.This isn’t an optimistic vision.The optimistic vision is of our family of nations staying together there for each other in the hard times coming through to better times.We’ve just pulled through a great recession together.We’re moving forward together.The road has been long but it is finally leading upwards and that’s why I ask you to vote No to walking away.Vote No – and you are voting for a bigger and broader and better future for Scotland and you are investing in the future for your children and grandchildren.So this is our message to the people of Scotland: We want you to stay.Head and heart and soul, we want you to stay.Please don’t mix up the temporary and the permanent.Don’t think: “I’m frustrated with politics right now, so I’ll walk out the door and never come back.”

If you don’t like me – I won’t be here forever.If you don’t like this Government – it won’t last forever.But if you leave the UK – that will be forever.Yes, the different parts of the UK don’t always see eye-to-eye.Yes, we need change – and we will deliver it but to get that change, to get a brighter future, we don’t need to tear our country apart.In two days, this long campaign will be at an end.And as you stand in the stillness of the polling booth, I hope you will ask yourself this.Will my family and I truly be better off by going it alone? Will we really be more safe and secure?

Do I really want to turn my back on the rest of Britain, and why is it that so many people across the world are asking: why would Scotland want to do that? Why?

And if you don’t know the answer to these questions – then vote No.At the end of the day, all the arguments of this campaign can be reduced to a single fact: we are better together.So as you reach your final decision, please don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t be a proud Scot and a proud Brit.Don’t lose faith in what this country is – and what we can be.Don’t forget what a great United Kingdom you are part of.Don't turn your backs on what is the best family of nations in the world and the best hope for your family in this world.So please, from all of us: Vote to stick together, vote to stay, vote to save our United Kingdom.

第四篇：苏格兰公投失败分析

苏格兰，留了下来!或许是英国首相卡梅伦的泣泪挽留起了作用，一夜计票之后，这一次声势浩大的“分手公投”，苏格兰还是留在了联合王国。

公投前夕，民调显示统独两派民意十分接近，这令英国政府出了一身冷汗。“尽管同意公投，但其实无论是英国政府还是苏格兰人，都没有对最终分手做好准备。”社科院欧洲研究所研究院、社会文化研究室主任田德文说道。

在此前的多次民调之中，反对苏格兰独立的人群比例都占优。田德文指出，此次英国保守党和自民党联合政府准予苏格兰地区进行独立公投，其实本就是想在民意占优的情况下，给苏格兰不断提高自治程度的趋势做一个“了断”，终止国家不断走向松散的势头。

然而，英国政府没有料到的是，在同意公投之后，支持苏格兰独立的比例不断上升。

这和独立一派近两年来的大力宣传有关，但也有另一个原因，即当民众看到支持独立的人逐渐增多、独立有可能成真时，就会更加倾向于投票支持独立。政治学中“沉默的螺旋效应”认为，人们与生俱来的有一种怕被主流群体孤立的恐惧，但是如果一个人感到自己的立场正在为公众所接受，他就会变得更加勇于表达自己。

因此，即使不做分析只报道民调，媒体的意见也会对投票者产生影响。正是出于这一考虑，在公投前夕，英国各大媒体已经不再做民调报道。

尽管此前揪人心弦，但对于这次的公投结果，田德文并不感到意外。

【分析】

为何留下来?“不想折腾”

公投前统独两派的势均力敌令英国政府倍感焦虑。

英国首相卡梅伦坦言对苏格兰独立公投的前景感到“紧张”，乃至在讲演过程中数次哽咽。就连一直说独立与否是“苏格兰人民自己的事”的伊丽莎白二世女王，也在公投前希望苏格兰人“好好考虑一下”。

人们选择留下来，最决定性的原因是“不想折腾”，田德文认为，成立一个新国家未来将面临太多的不确定性，而在不确定的情况下，选择维持现状就是一个更加稳妥的选择。

还有一个原因是，此次公投的主体是苏格兰居民，但并非全是苏格兰人，里面还有不少英格兰人以及来自英国其他地方的人，此外还有欧盟国家的居民。

根据公投约定，居住在苏格兰，年龄在16岁之上的英国公民和欧盟公民都有资格投票。苏格兰圣安德鲁斯大学的波兰学者托马什·卡姆塞拉就是投票者之一。他对新京报记者表示，“每一项大的政治变革，都会带有巨大的不确定性，也不可避免地带来一段时期的不稳定，尤其是这么一个500万人口的地区要独立，很多事情可能会向完全错误的方向发展。”因此，经历过东欧剧变的他，投了反对票。

公投之后，分离主义会偃旗息鼓吗?

根据此前英国政府和苏格兰达成的协议，公投结果如果是选择留下来，那么至少在相当长的一段时期内，苏格兰独立问题将不会再被提上日程。

“留下来对英国政治的影响不大”，“但是对分离主义是一个重创”，田德文指出。“当然苏格兰分离主义不会绝迹，仍然会继续存在和发展，但苏格兰短期内不会再面临分出去的问题了。接下来的问题是英国政府和苏格兰就如何自治、自治到什么程度的讨论。”

此外，苏格兰还面临着分离派和统一派和解的问题，但是“这个问题并不是很严重。”田德文说到，在英国的语境下，分离与否对普通百姓的生活影响，比我们想象的要小。

公投对英国政府有何影响?

如果苏格兰通过公投独立出去了，田德文认为，卡梅伦的政治生涯，甚至整个保守党在英国政坛，都将面临毁灭性打击。留下来，对于英国政府的影响将会小很多。

但即便如此，《卫报》指出，公投已经改变了一些事情。卡梅伦所在的保守党，“面临非常严重的麻烦。”《卫报》评述到，保守党面临的问题不仅仅在苏格兰，如果他们不作出重大改变，那么想赢得下一届的大选，堪忧。

英国政府会如何安抚苏格兰?

目前，苏格兰已经拥有了较英格兰等地更大的自治权。此前，英国主要政党都表示，即使留下来，也不赞成再给苏格兰更多的自治权。然而在公投前夕，统独双方民意的接近，令英国政府恐慌。为了拉拢民意，英国政府临时推出一系列“投票红包”：9月7日，英国财政大臣奥斯本表示，英国议会三大主要正政党一致同意：如果苏格兰留在英国，将会获得更大自主权，包括税收、开支和社会福利。

但田德文认为，这种策略并不能称之为高明。“这就变成了会哭的孩子有奶吃。”田德文说到，做出这种表态，会让同样追求更多自治权的威尔士和北爱尔兰感到不满。长远看来，即便英国侥幸逃过此次公投这一劫，英国各地的“独立派”也势必得寸进尺。

“如果这次通过公投，苏格兰真的独立了，对于欧洲和全世界的分离主义都是一种鼓励。”田德文说到，目前世界上完全没有分离主义问题的国家并不是很多，尤其是大国，国内几乎都有不同程度的这种困扰。而这一次的结果，对于分离主义则是一个重创。

第五篇：卡梅伦在苏格兰公投结果公布后演讲

The people of Scotland have spoken.It is a clear result.They have kept our country of four nations together.Like millions of other people, I am delighted。

苏格兰人民做出了选择。这是一个清晰的结果。他们选择继续一起组成我们的国家。和数百万人民一样，我非常高兴。

As I said during the campaign, it would have broken my heart to see our United Kingdom come to an end。

正如我在活动中所说，如果看到英国走到了尽头，我的心将会破碎。

And I know that sentiment was shared by people, not just across our country, but also around the world because of what we’ve achieved together in the past and what we can do together in the future。

我知道，不仅是我们国家的人民，全世界的人民都在分享这份喜悦 – 这是因为我们在过去所取得的成就，以及我们能够共同创造的未来。

So now it is time for our United Kingdom to come together, and to move forward。

所以，现在是英国团结起来、共同向前的时刻。

A vital part of that will be a balanced settlement – fair to people in Scotland and importantly to everyone in England, Wales and Northern Ireland as well。

我们将有一个更公平的体系 – 不但对苏格兰人民更公平，重要的是，将对英格兰、威尔士、北爱尔兰人民也同样公平。

Let us first remember why we had this debate – and why it was right to do so。

让我们首先记住为什么我们会有这次的争论，以及为什么这样做是对的。

The Scottish National Party was elected in Scotland in 2011 and promised a referendum on independence。

苏格兰民族党于2011年在苏格兰获选，并誓言独立公投。

We could have blocked that, we could have put it off but just as with other big issues, it was right to takethe big decision。

我们本可以阻止公投，也可以将其推迟——但这就像其他问题一样，接受重大的决定才是正确的，而不是进行躲避。

I am a passionate believer in our United Kingdom – I wanted more than anything for our United Kingdom to stay together。

我对我们的国家拥有强烈的信任感 —— 对我来说没有什么比我们国家团结在一起更重要了。

But I am also a democrat.And it was right that we respected the SNP’s majority in Holyrood and gave the Scottish people their right to have their say。

但我对我们的国家拥有强烈的信任感 —— 对我来说没有什么比我们国家团结在一起更重要了。

Let us also remember why it was right to ask the definitive question, Yes or No。

让我们记住为什么提出决定性的问题“去”或者“留”是对的。

Because now the debate has been settled for a generation or as Alex Salmond has said, perhaps for a lifetime。

因为这个争论已经存在了一代– 或者像 Alex Salmond 所说的，也许是一生。

So there can be no disputes, no re-runs – we have heard the settled will of the Scottish people。

因此结论无可争议，也不会重来，我们已经听到了苏格兰人民的坚定愿望。

Scotland voted for a stronger Scottish Parliament backed by the strength and security of the United Kingdom and I want to congratulate the No campaign for that – for showing people that our nations really are better together。

苏格兰选出了一个由英国的强大和安全作为支持的苏格兰议会。我想对支持团结的人民表示感谢——感谢你们展示出我们国家团结起来才能更好的事实。

I also want to pay tribute to Yes Scotland for a well-fought campaign and to say to all those who did vote for independence: ‘we hear you’。

我也要对支持独立的人们表示敬意——你们进行了一场很精彩的活动。我要对投票支持独立的人们说，“我们听到了你们的声音”。

We now have a chance – a great opportunity – to change the way the British people are governed, and change it for the better。

我们现在有一个机会，一个很好的机会，来改变英国的管理方式，我们为了更好而改变。

Political leaders on all sides of the debate now bear a heavy responsibility to come together and work constructively to advance the interests of people in Scotland, as well as those in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, for each and every citizen of our United Kingdom。

所有党派的政治领导人现在全部身负重任，我们要一起为苏格兰、英格兰、威尔士、北爱尔兰人民的利益而努力，为我们每一个英国公民而努力。

To those in Scotland sceptical of the constitutional promises that were made, let me say this we have delivered on devolution under this Government, and we will do so again in the next Parliament。

对这些承诺表示怀疑的苏格兰人民，请听我说：我们在本届政府进行了权力下放，我们还会在下届议会做同样的事。

The three pro-union parties have made commitments, clear commitments, on further powers for the Scottish Parliament。

支持统一的三党联合做出承诺，给苏格兰议会更多的权力。

We will ensure that those commitments are honoured in full。

我们保证兑现承诺。

And I can announce today that Lord Smith of Kelvin – who so successfully led Glasgow’s Commonwealth Games – has agreed to oversee the process to take forward the devolution commitments with powers over tax, spending and welfare all agreed by November and draft legislation published by January。

我今天也宣布，2014格拉斯哥英联邦运动会主席史密斯•凯尔文男爵已经同意监督权力下放的进程，包括在11月前在税务、支出、福利问题达成一致，并于来年1月公开草案。

Just as the people of Scotland will have more power over their affairs, so it follows that the people of England, Wales and Northern Ireland must have a bigger say over theirs。

跟苏格兰人民将会拥有更多自治权一样，英格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰的人民也将就他们所关心的事宜有更多话语权。

The rights of these voters need to be respected, preserved and enhanced。

投票者的权益需要被尊重、保护和加强。

It is absolutely right that a new and fair settlement for Scotland should be accompanied by a new and fair settlement that applies to all parts of our United Kingdom。

在苏格兰拥有一个全新的、更公平的体系的同时，英国所有地区都应该有一个全新的、更公平的体系。

In Wales, there are proposals to give the Welsh Government and Assembly more powers。

在威尔士，也有给威尔士政府和大会更多权力的提案。

And I want Wales to be at the heart of the debate on how to make our United Kingdom work for all our nations。

我希望威尔士能够成为就“如何让所有地区对我们国家都满意”展开的讨论的重点。

In Northern Ireland, we must work to ensure that the devolved institutions function effectively。

在北爱尔兰，我们必须努力确保移交的机构有效运转。

But I have long believed that a crucial part missing from this national discussion is England。

很久以来我一直认为，这场全国范围的大讨论中缺失了一个关键部分，那就是英格兰。

We have heard the voice of Scotland-and now the millions of voices of England must also be heard。

我们已经听到了苏格兰的声音——而现在，数百万英格兰人民的声音也不容忽视。

The question of English votes for English laws – the so-called West Lothian question –requires a decisive answer。

有关英格兰人民为英格兰法律投票的问题——即所谓的“西洛锡安问题”——需要得到一个决定性的回答。

So, just as Scotland will vote separately in the Scottish Parliament on their issues of tax, spending and welfare so too England, as well as Wales and Northern Ireland, should be able to vote on these issues and all this must take place in tandem with, and at the same pace as, the settlement for Scotland。

所以，正如苏格兰将单独在苏格兰议会中就自身的税务、开支和福利进行投票，英格兰、以及威尔士和北爱尔兰，也应当能够就这些事务进行投票——所有这些都应当与解决苏格兰问题同时、同步进行。

I hope this is going to take place on a cross-party basis。

我希望这将能够在跨党派的基础上进行。

I have asked William Hague to draw up these plans。

我已要求威廉•黑格起草这些方案。

We will set up a Cabinet Committee right away and proposals will also be ready to the same timetable。

我们即将设立一个内阁委员会，而相关的提议也会按这一时间表准备完毕。

I hope the Labour Party and other parties will contribute。

我希望工党和其他政党也将做出贡献。

It is also important we have wider civic engagement about how to improve governance in our United Kingdom, including how to empower our great cities.And we will say more about this in the coming days。

同等重要的是，在如何改善我们国家的管理上，我们获得更广泛的公民参与，其中包括如何让我们的大城市获得更多的授权——我们将在未来几天就此做出更多阐述。

This referendum has been hard fought.It has stirred strong passions.It has electrified politics in Scotland, and caught the imagination of people across the whole of our United Kingdom。

此次公投来之不易。它掀起了民众强烈的热情，激发了苏格兰的政治活力，同时也让整个英国人民都为之畅想。

It will be remembered as a powerful demonstration of the strength and vitality of our ancient democracy。

它有力地展现了我们古老民主制度的力量与活力，将会为世人所铭记。

Record numbers registered to vote and record numbers cast their vote。

登记投票的选民人数创下历史新高；而实际投票人数同样刷新了纪录。

We should all be proud of that。

我们所有人都为此感到骄傲。

It has reminded us how fortunate we are that we are able to settle these vital issues at the ballot box, peacefully and calmly。

它提醒我们，我们是何等幸运，能够以和平和冷静的方式，通过投票箱来解决这些至关重要的问题。

Now we must look forward, and turn this into the moment when everyone – whichever way they voted – comes together to build that better, brighter future for our entire United Kingdom。

现在，我们必须向前看，并以此为契机，让所有人——无论他们曾投票支持哪一方——团结起来，为我们整个英国创建更美好、更光明的未来。