第一篇:出国推荐信英文
出国留学导师推荐信范文 1 to whom it may concern, mentor 出国留学导师推荐信范文 2 dear colleagues: i have known ms.zhang since 2003, when she was admitted as a master of science candidate into the school.as her research adviser, i directed her research and found her a promising youth radiating with intelligence and creativity.during her first year, she got a very good record in major courses and earned good scores major and general gpa 3.3.she particularly enjoyed challenging areas of studies such as quantum chemistry and theory of electrochemistry.materials project for his degree thesis “theoretical study of electronic structures of several representative metal element in the hydrotalcite slabs”.to make the theory model meet the actual materials, she faced down many practical problems, such as building reasonable module of inorganic materials, and calculation techniques.working hard and independently, she cracked the problems one by one, and came up with a thesis that was characterized by academic excellence.during her m.s.period, she had three papers published in international journals.judging by her outstanding performance while she studied with me, i am convinced that ms.zhang has acquired the knowledge and intellectual sophistication on the basis of which she can undertake world-class training.i therefore lend her my enthusiastic support and would appreciate your favorable consideration of her application.from: x x x x department of the special class gifted for youths university of science and technology hefei, anhui 230026, p.r.china july 1, 1998 3 dear sir or x x x: mr.ren was admitted in 1986 at 14 years of age into the special class for the gifted youths, my universitys unique program that caters to the intellectual needs of unusually talented chinese youngsters.it was a rare privilege he earned with his nearly impeccable academic performance through the years of his elementary and secondary school.he impressed me almost as he entered into my university, a major cradle of chinas scientific and technological talents.at the time, members of the gifted class all had to spend half a month studying by themselves the principles of calculus and then take an exam so that we could evaluate their self-study capability.mr.ren scored the highest grade in that exam.he also exhibited a keenly whetted mind during class discussions.to my regret at the time, his english was not as good as his mathematics or physics.but i noticed he made a point of working especially hard in improving his english during his five undergraduate years with us.by now, he seems to be at least as proficient in english as most of his former classmates in the gifted class.yours sincerely x x x x professor and deputy head 4 as director of the state key laboratory of electrical insulation at abc university in superior performance on her thesis paper.in terms of her character, ms.xiao is an amiable, courteous, and helpful young woman who has many friends amongst our laboratory personnel.sincerely, name director state key laboratory of electrical insulation, abc university 5 表现,以表现你的应变能力。又如,申请者是否有其它潜力未发挥? 如果申请者的成绩未尽理想,评述你对申请者的看法。解释申请者虽然形式上的成绩未尽理想,却有极深厚的潜力尚未发挥。如果申请者转系,也可以强调申请者有强烈的学习动机,根据推荐者的观察,相信以申请者的表现,一定可以成功完成学业。
(四)推荐者对申请人人格个性特征的印象:譬如学习精神、工作态度、与同事(同学)相处的情形、组织领导能力、学术专长、研究能力、有无工作经验与否,并 application for admission to your school.if any further information is required, please feel free to contact me.” 签名: sincerely, sincerely yours, very truly yours, with best regards, 下面结合上面的部分内容,给出一篇推荐信样例(被推荐的同学是数学系的)dear sir/madam: i have known mr.caleb for more than 6 years since his freshman year at university of minnesota.at that time, he took the course--mathematical analysis, which i taught mainly for junior students majoring in mathematics.to my surprise, i found he was among the few students in his class who could keep up with the pace of my lectures.moreover, he often posed thought-provoking questions during the course.thus it was natural that i liked discussing with this young man and became familiar with him.the more i knew him, the more i found he was talented at mathematics.as you can see, he got excellent scores on the course.in fact, he ranked no.1 on this 270 hours course in the talented student class which has 34 intelligent others.with his outstanding talent and solid mathematical background, he also did quite well in most other courses during his undergraduate study.as to his personality, i would like to say mr.caleb is a warm-hearted, honest and upright student.he was always ready to help others.during my lectures, many students got confused at some points and i could always see mr.caleb help them explain during breaks.in the meanwhile, i must admit that mr.caleb was a bit impatient sincerely yours, xxx 6 推荐信样本—经济学 school of economics beijing university p.r.china nov.11, 2008 to whom it may concern: due to miss yang’s high intellect and incessant assiduity, she is an unquestionable top student.her solid mathematical and theoretical backgrounds are quite worthy of mentioning.among the 150 students in her grade, she is one of the three who have never got a grade lower than 90(in 100 scoring scale)in mathematical analysis and linear algebra.also, her scores in macroeconomics and microeconomics were the highest in her 32—student specialty class.at the same time, miss yang grasped every chance to satisfy her strong desire for advanced learning.every time those alumni who had abstained ph.d degree in ivy league came back to lecture to the graduate students, she audited without exception their influence, in addition to her own篇二:出国留学英文推荐信
推荐信
推荐信在西方国家是求职,求学的必备材料。
写推荐信的人必须对被推荐者有一定的了解。最好有较深的资历。如被推荐者的原单位领导,本专业的专家等,名声越大越好。
推荐信大体上可分为两种:专业推荐信(特意为被推荐人申请某一单位的某一职务而写的。写信人应了解聘方的要求、工作性质等有关情况以便有的方矢地推荐被荐人)。通常推荐信(即一封信可以用于不同的聘人单位,通常以“to whom it may concern”)为称呼。
推荐信要多写优点,充分肯定成绩,篇幅不宜过长,也不能三言两语。一般包括以下三个内容:
1.说明推荐人与被荐人的关系,熟识程度等。2.概述被荐人的品质、能力、性格等。] 3.建议招聘人录用。
推荐信上应提供推荐人的工作单位、地址、电话等以便对方联系,签名后必须注意职称或学衔。
除了请别人推荐,也可以自荐,其格式与上述要求相同。
出国留学,准备申请材料是一件颇费心思的事情。申请大学时,一封很棒的英文推荐信,绝对能给你带来绝处逢生的机会。对于如何得到成功的英文推荐信,大家各执一词,漫天飞的教你如何写成功英文推荐信的书,让人眼花缭乱;也有捉笔代刀者;然而,中西方对于推荐信的观点也有不同,尤其是英文推荐信,不妨借鉴一下如下的英文推荐信范文,给你或多或少一点启示。from: x x x x department of the special class gifted for youths university of science and technology hefei, anhui 230026, p.r.china july 1, 1998 dear sir or x x x: mr.ren was admitted in 1986 at 14 years of age into the special class for the gifted youths, my university s unique program that caters to the intellectual needs of unusually talented chinese youngsters.it was a rare privilege he earned with his nearly impeccable完美的 academic performance through the years of his elementary and secondary school.he impressed me almost as he entered into my university, a major cradle of china s scientific and technological talents.at the time, members of the gifted class all had to spend half a month studying by themselves the principles of calculus and then take an exam so that we could evaluate their self-study capability.mr.ren scored the highest grade in that exam.he also exhibited a keenly whetted mind during class discussions.to my regret at the time, his english was not as good as his mathematics or physics.but i noticed he made a point of working especially hard in improving his english during his five undergraduate years with us.by now, he seems to be at least as proficient in english as most of his former classmates in the gifted class.considering his application.i would greatly appreciate it you decide to accept him as he wishes.yours sincerely x x x x professor and deputy head dear sir, [mrs chen ping] graduated from [the physics department of beijing teachers’
university in 1982].from [1983] to [1985] [she] had been a research student [in physics department] of the above-mentioned university under my direction, majoring in [molecular spectra] study.since [1986 she] has been doing teaching and research work in [tianjin chinese medical col-lege] in [the line of infrared spectra of lipids].i have found [mrs chen] to be a hard-working person, who has made some outstanding achievements in [her] work.[mrs chen] now intends to engage in further study of [infrared spectroscopy, and laser spectroscopy] in particular.if possible, [she] would like to do research work under the direc-tion of [professor li gang] whose distinguished attainments are well-known.not only i myself but also my colleagues in [the physics department of our university] shall deem it a great favor if you will give [mrs chen ping] assistance and guidance during her study in your university.yours truly, [signature] 我高兴地向您推荐[天津中医学陆军物理学讲师陈平夫人]。[陈平夫人于1982年]毕业于[北京师范大学物理系]。[从1983年到1985年]在我的指导下,在上述的大学进行[分子光谱研究]。自[1986年]以来,一直在中医学院任教并研究[脂肪的红外光谱]。我发现她是一位勤奋工作的人,在工作中做出过一些突出的成绩。
现在她拟在[红外学光谱学],特别是[激光光谱学]方面作进一步的研究。如果可能的话,她愿意在卓有成就的[李刚教授]的指导下从事研究工作。如果[陈平夫人]在贵校攻读期间,您能给予帮助和指导,那么不仅我本人,我们大学物理系的同事们也将不胜感激。[world publishing house] [55 wu fu street] [heping district] [beijing, 300000] [china] [july 15, 2005] [warner books] [p.o.box 690] [new york, n.y.10019] [u.s.a.] dear sir, i wish to apply for a position with your [publishing house].i’m [35] years old and am at present employed by [world publishing house], where i have been for [the past five years].formerly i was employed by [dongfang press] where i was nearly [five years].my only reason for leaving either those positions would be to better myself and i feel there is no further opportunity in my present position.the editorial work had always had a great appeal to me as i have some ability in writing and editorial work.i can give you references from both these press houses as to my character and ability as an editor.very truly yours, [li ming] [signature](略)我希望能在贵社谋求一职位。我现年[35]岁。目前受雇于[天津出版社],最近 [5年里]本人一直在该社工作。在这之前,本人还在[东方出版社]工作近[5年]。我打算离开这两个职位的唯一理由就是谋求高升。我觉得目前的职位不利于本人的发展。
由于我在写作和编辑工作方面有些能力,所以编辑工作一直对我具大的吸引
力。
关于我的人品和能力,我可以请上述两个出版社单位写介绍信以供参考。[李明](签字)[2005年7月15日] 本文是一名国际贸易专业学生的英语老师为其写的一封英文推荐信。表达了这名学生的优秀给自己留下了深刻的印象。to whom it may concern: sincerely, dr.tim wu 本文是为好朋友写的一篇120字左右的推荐信,信中简单地地介绍了该朋友的一些个人背景,工作经历和语言能力。dear mr.brown, my friend-li ming wants to apply for a position with your firm.now, id like to introduce my friend to you.li ping graduated from a college three years ago and since then he has worked as a lawyer.he is good at english and knows some japanese.he works hard and is careful in everything he does.he is honest, kind and easy to get on with.he was born on may 1,1968 in jinan, shandong province,china.he is married and lives at no.148 renmin road,jinan city.he shows great interest in your firm.if he is accepted, he will do his best.im sure he will be fit for the position.if you agree with him, please write a letter to him, his telephone number is 6600537.yours truly [signature] university of international business and economics beijing 100029, p.r.china sept.28, 1998 dear colleagues: i have known ms.shan as a resourceful and goal-oriented individual since 1990, when she attended a lecture i delivered, at which she asked perceptive and challenging questions.although she did not officially take a course with me, she while at this university, ms.shan was an outstanding student, boasting excellent performance in all subjects of her studies and demonstrating great potential.her overall gpa ranked her among the top 3 in her class of 40 students.but ms.shan was no bookworm devoted exclusively to exams.she read extensively in subjects outside her major, particularly in business law, marketing, finance and journalism, all of which seemed to be fascinating to her.in recognition of her intellectual strengths, the department offered, at the time of her graduation, to accept her into its graduate without the normally mandatory examinations.she, however, turned down the offer.in ms.shan, we all saw an optimistic and easy-going character.with highly unusual determination, she is not to be daunted by any difficulties.she believes that, with hard work, she can achieve anything she wants.i think her confidence in herself is well grounded in her track record, especially when considering the fact that she entered into this university as the daughter of a most impoverished family, but graduated as a top student.yours sincerely 电子工程
最新出国申请签证英文介绍信模板 letter of introduction to: embassy of uk in beijing address: beijing city.tel:010-57105750 fax:010-84471317 date: 21mar 2011篇四:出国留学推荐信范例(巨经典!)我名字叫林蕊,生于1982年,2005年从上海师范大学(shanghai normal university)
毕业,获得学士学位,专业是英语语言。我想申请你们大学的xxxxx硕士课程。
我的祖父母和姑姑都是老师,很小的时候就从他们那里知道了很多世界各地的有趣的事情。诺贝尔是我对瑞典的第一印象,因为诺贝尔奖的存在,让我对遥远的瑞典有了一种崇敬。我读的第一个儿童小说就是《pippi》,后来才知道,这是瑞典作家von astrid lindgren的作品。随着年龄的增长,我逐渐知道了越来越多关于北欧,关于瑞典的历史和人文知识。从诺贝尔到圣诞老人,从爱立信到宜家(ikea)。知道得越多,我就越是对瑞典充满了向
往,希望自己有一天能踏上这个美丽的国度。
受到祖父母的影响,我考进了上海师范大学,选择了英语专业,因为我觉得这是我了解
世界的一个有力的工具。
在四年中,我系统的学习了英语语言的知识,听、说、读、写都打下了坚实的基础。在学习中,我知道每门课程都会给我带来收获,都是实现我的梦想的基石。我坚信只要我认真的,努力的去学习,我一定能做到最好。四年中,我连续获得了学校的奖学金,顺利的通过了专业英语考试6级,8级,而且现在已经通过了上海市高级口译的笔试部分,近期我就要参加口试部分,我有十足的把握通过这个测试,获得高级口译证书。当我从上海师范大学毕
业时,我在专业中排名第4,获得了“优秀毕业生”的称号。毕业以后,我进入了一家机械贸易公司。作为经理的助理,我整日要面对大量的英文文档的书写、翻译。除了日常的英语交流以外,我遇到了大量的机械、贸易等等方面的专业词汇,这是对我的挑战,而且我知道,如果战胜了这个挑战,我将会有一个很大的提高。于是我利用所有可以利用的时间翻阅专业字典,跟此行业内的资深人士交流。从开始的磕磕绊绊,经过努力的学习,我现在已经可以十分自如的应对这些专业知识了。
通过多年的学习和工作,我逐渐感到自己还有比较大的提升空间,于是我萌生了出国留学的想法。瑞典是一个我最向往的国家,如果能在瑞典学习,我想我不但能进一步提高自己的英语水平,而且可以学习瑞典语,这样我就能更好的去了解瑞典、了解欧洲。
随着中国经济的发展,中国跟北欧的文化、经济交流必然会越来越多,涉及的面会越来越广。如果我能获得一个在你们学校xxxxxxx专业的学习机会,我想我必然会在中欧交流的大潮中处于非常有利的位置。我一定会利用自己学到的专业知识,多做一些对中瑞交流有益的事情,将瑞典文化介绍给中国人民,将中国文化介绍给瑞典人民,增进我们的相互了
解,增进我们的友谊。
申请人:林蕊
2007.3.1 personal statement i am lin rui, born on april 29, 1982.majoring in english at shanghai normal university, i put across my undergraduate program of english in 2005 and obtained a bachelor’s degree of arts at the same time.in view of my insufficiency in current acquisition, i am determined to file for xxx offered by xxx so as to win self-improvement.my grandparents and my aunt are engaged in teaching.in my early years, i got to know a lot of interesting things at every corner of the world from them.my first impression on sweden was nobel prize, because of whose existence, i held a kind of admiration for remote sweden.the first children’s novel that i touched was pippi, which, i latterly knew, was the work of sweden’s writer von astrid lindgren.along with my growth, i gradually acquainted myself with north europe increasingly, like its history and humanistic knowledge, ranging from nobel prize to santa claus and from errison to ikea.the more i understood sweden, the more i yearned for it, hoping that someday i can set foot on this beautiful land.influenced by my grandparents, i was matriculated in shanghai normal university and chose to study english, for i felt that it was a powerful tool for me to understand the world.in the four-year study at the university, i systematically acquired knowledge about english language, laying a sound foundation for listening, speaking, reading and writing in english.in study, i realized that every course would bring me a different gain and all the courses were the cornerstone for the actualization of my ideal.i firmly hold the belief that so long as i studied earnestly and assiduously, i was bound to do a good job.at the university, consecutively winning scholarships of our university, i smoothly passed tem 4 and tem 8 as well as the written part of shanghai advanced english excellent graduate.after my graduation, i serve my employment in regloplas(shanghai)co., mechanism and trade, which is a challenge for me.and i know that if i conquer the challenge, i will make a great enhancement.therefore i avail myself of the time that i can use to thumb through specialized dictionaries and exchange my ideas with seniors in these fields.from the initial ignorance, under my great endeavor, i am now able to deal with the professional kn 推荐信范例
大多数学校都要求申请人提供二至三封推荐信。有力的推荐是录取的重要条件之 一。推荐信要客观、公正、切忌流于形式,内容空洞,要与申请人的其它材料(如成绩单)等相符。推荐信也应注意格式、文法等。因为向来有“名师出高徒”之说。推荐信的格式与一般书信基本相同。有信头,发信日期,收信人姓名,称呼,正文,信尾谦称,签名,推荐人姓名,职称及工作单位等部分。但推荐信还应着重以下方面: 1.为了便于校方查阅,必须提到被推荐者的全名。2.必须交待与被推荐者的认识期间(何时开始认识或认识多久),认识程度(偶尔见面或密切接触)及关系(师生关系,上下级关系,同事等)。3.对被推荐者的优点介绍及评价,这是推荐信的核心。主要包括被推荐者的天赋,学习成绩,研究能力,工作经验,学习精神,组织能力,品行及个性方面。4.必须表明推荐人的态度,是极力推荐还是有保留地推荐。
最近一些学校出于各种原因,设计了推荐表格,由推荐人填写,但其主要内容也和推荐信涉及的相同。
范例1 计算机教授推荐信 i came to know him in september 1987 when mr.chen enrolled in my class on fortran iv programming, a three semesters course.in the class he was one of the most outstanding students.at the semester final he earned a high grade of 81, which should be a according to our grading system.i also found him good at other studies.范例2 商管系教授推荐信 though mr.cheng graduated from this college 5 years ago, he keeps, contact with me very often.worthy of mention also is his personality, honest, reliable, responsible and mature.范例3 法律系教授推荐信 i am pleased to write this letter for my former student miss nan li, who graduated from this college with an l.b.degree in june 1978.miss lis performance, like that in many other courses she taken, was excellent with a superior grade of 86 for the first semester, and 84 for the second semester.in our university and in other university here, 80 is considered a , the highest level.推荐信的份量直接关系到能否出国留学,能否获得奖学金等,作为对外联系的材料,是其中一份较为重要的文件。推荐信的目的是通过国内专家向对方介绍申请人的工作、学习和专业方向等情况。在出国申请是否成功的诸多要素中,有力的推荐信是录取的重要条件之一,其份量仅次于于本科成绩单和标准化考试(gre、gmat、toefl)成绩。
多数学校都要求申请人提交两封到三封的推荐信,由教授、系主任或工作主管直接寄给指定的单位。
一、选择推荐人 推荐信是了解申请人的重要依据,在研究生课程中尤其如此。申请人可以选择现在或以前的老师、教授或雇主。推荐人必须熟悉学生的学习情况,了解学生的学习目的是否明确,在学术上是否有前途,以及学生的适应能力、创造能力、品行和特长。
书写推荐信的最理想的人选是一封由系主任写,一封由专业课教授写,一封由自己的导师写。不过,对方若无规定,则除了自己的亲属之外,任何人皆可为推荐人。推荐人一般应具备高级技术职称,如教授、副教授、研究员、副研究员等。如果推荐人在国内外学术界享有盛誉,或者被申请就读学校聘为客座教授,或者曾经在该校讲过学,那么这样的推荐人写的推荐信就具有很强的效力了。
二、推荐信的内容
推荐信一般应包括下列内容:
被推荐人的基本情况介绍。侧重于个人的毕业时间、学校、所获学位以及个人的专业经历。
推荐人对被推荐人的基本评价。侧重于被推荐人的专业基础、个性、特点、工作态度和在学术上的前途估计。若是推荐研究生,推荐人还需进一步说明其深造学习的基础和当前所具备的研究能力。显然,恰如其分地评价被推荐人的基础、能力和前途,比言过其实的赞誉更令人情服,更具有实际意义。
推荐人可以着重介绍被推荐人曾经获得的奖励,发表过的论文,参加过的重要学术会议,以及曾在学生组织或学术团体中的任职等来支持自己的评价。
推荐人还必须清楚地表明被推荐人留学的身份是研究生还是访问学者,专业领域和研究方向是什么。如果大学提供了现成的推荐表格,则必须按这类表格认真逐项填写。推荐表格中一般有学生综合评估的一项,即要求推荐人说明该生在所教的学生中应列为前5%,10%,或25%等。这种评估是指教授的个人评价,可以稍高一点。另外,推荐表格上常有许多难以填写的项目,遇到这种情形可填i dont know,亦不致对该生的评价有何严重影响。
第二篇:国信
经济步入新一轮上升期 进攻首选周期类行业
国信证券经济研究所2010年宏观策略观点
2010年中国经济复苏路径将出现大的阶段性切换:民间投资、出口、消费等需求渐次复苏,逐步接替刺激政策弱化所减少的需求,最终形成“一减三加”的新的总需求结构。“一减”指的是国家4万亿投资刺激计划对经济拉动的边际效应将递减,按照国家4万亿投资计划,09年刺激计划的边际效应极强,是推动全年中国固定资产投资大幅增长约33%的核心力量。2010年财政刺激投入按计划增加22.6%,这其中含义深远,统计数据显示,2008年之前的5年间,中国基础设施类投资的增长均在22-23%之间,刺激计划的边际效应在2009年大幅发挥之后,至2010年,其设计的增长目标是跟上投资“大部队”的内生增速,形成既不刺激也不拖后腿的基本格局。“三个加”包括,外贸的稳步复苏,国内消费的继续增加,以及因应消费需求、出口需求增加而产生的民间投资需求增加。我们相对更加看好外贸以及民间投资需求的恢复。
驱动经济的“三架马车”中出口复苏将主导2010年中国经济。2009年初对外贸易休克式的大幅衰退属于暂时现象,一方面,2009年6-10月的月均进出口总额比1-5月大幅回升29.7%,回升态势已为事实;另一方面,2010年全球经济复苏的大趋势仍将延续,以贸易规模占比作为权重,中国最大16个贸易伙伴国的GDP2009年预计增长-3.3%,而2010年将正增长3.1%,推动中国外贸增长的驱动力量明显存在。我们用了两类方法预测2010年中国出口增速,一是出口目的地国家GDP加权增长率法,预测结果是出口将增长22.6%,二是出口月度时间序列数据法,预测结果是22.0%,两种方法殊途同归,我们认为,由于2009年基数低,以及未来恢复趋势延续,2010年中国出口增长22%左右的可能性较大,扣除价格因素,实际增长约为19.4%。对于进口,我们仅使用月度时间序列模型进行预测,2010年中国进口增长23%,实际增长20.4%,同样因为基数低,恢复趋势确定,进口将出现大幅增长。美国经济复苏向上趋势至少可持续到明年上半年。我们重点关注三个变量:1)房地产市场的复苏最为确定,首次购房税收优惠政策的延期支持地产销量回升仍可持续,30年抵押贷款利率也处于相对历史地位;2)PMI指数未来有波动下滑风险,但目前来看复苏的基本面并未恶化;3)实际消费需求已经承接政府加杠杆化对经济复苏的拉动支撑,预计在房地产市场、就业和实际平均时薪改善的背景下Q4美国实际PCE将继续缓步回升,这一趋势至少可持续到明年上半年。我们维持如下观点:在政府经济刺激政策逐步退出以及失业率尚未见顶回落的背景下,Q4经济环比增长动能略逊于Q3,并且基数的抬升也导致Q4实际GDP环比增速略微放缓,但同比来看,经济“V”型复苏的趋势至少可持续到明年上半年。09年Q4环比增速约为2%,09全年经济下滑2.7%;到2010年初有可能恢复到接近2.5%-3%的增速。
市场一派观点认为,本轮危机后,外贸在中国经济中的作用将大大弱化,以后增长靠内需,而我们认为,未来5年外贸仍将是中国经济增长的重要引擎,也是中国实现总供需平衡不可替代的方式。这其中有着非常深刻的社会经济阶段特征的背景。在OECD国家和金砖四国中,现在中国抚养比39.1%,最低;城市化率45%,第二低,低抚养率与低城市化率并存,从根本上决定了当前中国具有庞大的生产能力且相对于国内当期需求又是过剩的。抚养率、城市化率变化的缓慢,又决定中国外贸依存度较高问题的解决也必然是一个缓慢而渐进的过程。另外,我们认为民间投资复苏的催化剂也主要基于外贸复苏。从周期位臵看,2010年是新一轮经济上升阶段的初期,高经济增长和低通货膨胀将形成良好的搭配。宏观月度数据定局“前高后低”,5、6月份形成高低转换的阶段性敏感区间。2010年5、6月风险来源于:投资增速届时将由30%降至24%以下;外贸增速的基数效应收窄,同比增速较1季度有所回落;新增贷款可能从1季度的高位回落;其他宏观指标也将从高点不同程度地回落。
预计2010年中国GDP全年增长10.8%,1季度最高,为13.8%。1季度GDP的较高同比增长主要是因为外贸同比出现大幅正增长,而投资增幅收窄幅度仍不大。消费将延续其作为非周期性经济部类的稳定特征,实际消费增长16.9%(名义19%),拉动GDP增长4.0个百分点,增速与拉动较2009年均有小幅提升,但不宜期望过高;因大规模基数效应和全球经济复苏,我国实际外贸需求增长20%(名义22.5%),拉动GDP增长3.27个百分点(2009年-1.5);投资上,政府主导投资的边际效应大幅递减,民间投资因出口和消费需求的加权增长率提高而出现较快恢复,实际总投资增长22.4%(名义25%),拉动GDP增长3.51个百分点(2009年6.2),增速与拉动较2009年大幅下降。消费、投资、外贸合计拉动GDP增长10.8%。
与总需求一样,2010年中国流动性形势也面临驱动因素的阶段性切换:以贷款派生存款为主的内生货币创造对于流动性的贡献有所弱化;以外汇占款增加推动的外生基础货币增长将显著加强。随着2010年刺激性金融政策的逐渐弱化,以及外贸复苏、人民币重回升值轨道,预计2002-2008年流动性来源的基本结构将得到一定程度上复归,这一点已经在2009年8-10月的数据中得到体现,这期间新增贷款11800亿元、新增外汇占款7541亿元,而在此前的7个月中,新增贷款77743亿元、新增外汇占款11688亿元。流动性来源的大格局已经发生了质的改变,2010年这种变化将延续,以新增贷款派生新增存款为主的内生货币创造,以及以外汇占款增加推动的外生基础货币增长的对于流动性的贡献比例将重新向2002-2008年的大趋势靠拢。
2010年决定市场运行的两大核心变量分别是美元和中国的货币紧缩。我们将市场的资金来源分为两部分:一是国内银行的贷款,另一部分是国外的热钱流入。经济周期中国内的流动性分为三个阶段:1)经济周期衰退末期和复苏期宽松的货币政策下偏正面的流动性;2)经济扩张期适度宽松的货币政策下偏中性的流动性(并且在1年中表现为上半年松下半年紧);3)经济衰退期适度紧缩的货币政策下偏负面的流动性。我们判断2010年1季度资金面将非常宽松,主要源自于信贷的规律性放开+出口转正背景下人民币升值预期进一步强烈导致的热钱流入加速,2季度资金面仍然宽裕,但增加了不确定因素,主要来自:1)美元的可能反转;2)中国政府采取的货币紧缩政策。目前决定美元指数中期趋势的核心是市场对于美联储的加息预期,即美联储何时在其议息会议的声明中改变“较长时间将利率维持低位”的声明。一旦声明改变,市场的加息预期将出现,并导致美元进入到一轮升值周期。明年3月或4月将成为美元指数反转的重要时间窗口。美元指数的反转首先影响美国股市和大宗商品市场,其次影响热钱流入到中国内地。
由于目前还无法确定中美两国加息的步调、频率与幅度,我们暂时无法精确描述美联储加息预期出现之后人民币兑美元的变化状态,但我们仍然可以得到以下有效结论:1)人民币兑美元汇率中期是升值趋势;2)每次美元的持续性反弹,无论是基于加息预期还是每次实质性的加息,都会造成人民币兑美元汇率的阶段性贬值(这在美元兑人民币12月NDF上会体现的更明显;3)无论是基于加息预期还是每次实质性的加息,都会导致套息交易的持续平仓,对A股市场的热钱流入流出造成巨大冲击;4)美元指数的上升将降低人民币兑美元的升值预期幅度,从而影响热钱流入的速度。
2季度市场资金面仍然宽裕。目前央行可以采用的货币政策工具是公开市场操作、准备金率和利率以及传统的“窗口指导”的信贷规模控制。我们对央行的货币政策判断如下:1)2季度上调存款准备金率的概率低。目前法定准备金率已经高达15%,已经决定了央行在此工具上到底还有多少剩余空间本身就存在很大的问号。2)加息的步伐可能与美国市场同步,最早发生于10年6月。我们判断美国最早启动加息会在10年6月,这意味着中国最早加息也不会早于6月份(国信宏观组判断加息会在下半年)。3)信贷管制可能出现于CPI持续超过3%之后。按照往常的规律,当CPI开始快速上行之后,央行首先采取的措施是加大公开市场业务操作力度,其次是依次加息或上调存款准备金率,最后才是直接进行“窗口指导”的信贷规模控制。按照目前国信宏观组对CPI的判断,可以断定2季度不存在出现信贷管制的可能性。
2010年市场预判:1季度冲高回落、2季度继续上行。我们判断市场在1季度冲高回落的理由有两点:1)1季度固定资产投资淡季将导致主要周期类行业价格出现滞涨或调整,这将与1季度资金面宽裕背景下的乐观情绪形成强烈反差,因为低于市场预期而出现调整;2)房地产优惠政策的部分退出对房屋销量在1、2月份的影响。未来我们将密切跟踪主要的行业层面数据(BDI指数、钢铁价格、有色价格和煤炭价格)来提示1季度何时回落,以便转换行业配臵。
我们判断市场在2季度将继续上行的主要理由是: 1)政府投资叠加私人投资对资源品的挤出效应可能持续至2010年6月。对应2010年2季度中国的情况就是,政府投资未退出(需要观测1季度的宏观数据来决定退出的力度,时间在4月份),而以房地产投资带动的私人投资迅速回升,由此可能会形成刺激性政策维持及民间经济强劲复苏的暂时重叠,导致资源品价格挤出效应非常明显(1-4月政府投资+私人投资对资源品的拉动作用集中在2季度显现)。2)2季度为传统的固定资产投资旺季,同时房地产投资对于中游钢铁、有色等行业的拉动作用主要在09年4季度和10年2季度中集中体现,这种背景下主要周期类行业的催化剂因素都偏正面。3)同时,由于CPI仍可控,央行不会采取信贷管制的措施,首次加息也最早在10年6月份,市场资金面仍然相对宽松。如果届时CPI超预期上升,我们认为调控时点可能在2010年6-7月份。
行业配臵:超配地产金融钢铁煤炭化工,回调配臵非周期类消费品。主要理由如下:
1)周期类行业仍然是股市上升周期的配臵首选。简单统计1999年初至今的行业涨跌幅数据如下可以明显发现市场上升周期周期类行业表现更佳,市场回调或中级调整期间消费类行业表现更佳。
2)行业选择的要素:相对估值低+产能利用率预期高+催化剂因素偏正面。这里所说的产能利用率预期高指的是当前产能利用率高且2010年新增产能较少的行业,满足这种条件的周期类行业在需求增加的情况下价格上升的幅度更大。
3)行业配臵的时机—跟随房地产政策的退出节奏以及行业的季节性。行业配臵的时机必须结合两点:一是市场的阶段性调整,另一个就是房地产优惠政策的退出。前者决定何时配臵需要转换到防御类行业,从行业的季节性来看,1季度固定资产淡季对主要周期类行业的作用将在2月份左右逐步显现出来(尤其是以价格作为催化剂的行业),后者则决定了地产银行板块的配臵时机。
综合考虑行业选择的要素、房地产政策的退出节奏、行业的季节性以及美元可能的反转时点,我们建议主要行业超配时机如下:12-1月超配地产(二三线地产)、钢铁、有色(黄金+铜)、煤炭(动力煤)、化工(氨纶),2-3月超配传统的消费类行业食品饮料、商业零售、纺织服装、医药保健,2010年2季度超配地产(二三线地产)、金融、钢铁、焦煤+无烟煤、化工(PVC)、汽车。
第三篇:国信集团简介
青岛国信发展集团简介
青岛国信发展(集团)有限责任公司是直属青岛市政府的综合性国有投资控股集团,主要职能是作为政府投资主体、运营国有资本、经营国有股权,进行投资、资本运作和资产管理。公司注册资本30亿元,2011年末集团资产总额预计超过300亿元,净资产达100亿元,目前已经形成了实业、金融、现代服务业以及置业四大主业板块。
公司主要投资项目:青岛城市轨道交通项目、青岛胶州湾海底隧道项目、青岛国际会展中心、青岛体育中心、青岛大剧院、青岛海天大酒店、青岛东方饭店、山东黄岛发电厂、华电青岛发电有限公司、中石化青岛大炼油项目、光大银行、青岛银行、青岛农商行、泰信基金管理公司、房地产项目等。
公司经营宗旨:作为政府投资与资产运营的受托主体,按照青岛市经济社会发展的总体要求,依据国家法律、法规,通过市场化运作的手段,参与城市功能开发,为城市功能提升进行投融资活动,达到优化资源配置,增强市场竞争能力,实现国有资产保值增值的目的。
公司经营范围:城乡重大基础设施项目投资建设与运营、政府重大公益项目的投资建设与运营;经营房产、旅游、土地开发等服务业及经批准的非银行金融服务业;经政府批准的国家法律、法规禁止以外的其他资产投资与运营活动。1
第四篇:国信招标集团
发展多元化业务,提供包括招投标代理、工程咨询、项目管理、造价咨询等全方位专业服务。
国信招标集团是由国信招标集团有限公司及其控股和参股成员公司共同组建的国家级综合性咨询服务机构。中国招标投标协会会长叶青任集团公司董事长,《招标投标法》的主要起草人之一袁炳玉任集团公司总裁。
这家集团公司拥有开展招标、咨询及相关业务的最高资质,包括各类招标甲级资质、工程咨询甲级资质、造价资质、拍卖资质和进出口经营权等,可以为客户提供包括招投标代理、工程咨询、项目管理、造价咨询、工程监理、拍卖、典当、国际贸易、物资供应、投融资咨询、网络技术服务等全方位专业化服务。
据袁炳玉介绍,与我国《招标投标法》同龄的国信招标有限责任公司自1999年成立以来,成为业绩稳居全国同行业前列的公司。2008年招标项目委托金额超过1700亿元,招标项目超过2900项。
近10年来,国信招标有限责任公司陆续承接了北京2008年奥运会国家主体育场、城市轨道交通建设、国家粮食储备库及成品油库建设、国家西气东输及南水北调工程、国家重型燃气轮机组建设及技术引进项目等数千项国家及地方重点工程的货物、施工及服务的招标代理,以及工程咨询、项目管理、货物进出口代理等服务工作。
这些项目所涉范围涵盖了工业、农业、交通、能源、社会事业、城市基础设施等各个行业,代理总金额已超过5000亿元人民币,平均节约资金率在15%以上。
作为综合性招标代理机构,这家集团公司的招标代理业务已向深度和广度发展,不仅向客户提供国家及地方重大建设项目、政府采购项目等传统招标代理服务,还拓展了投融资类(包括银行贷款、BOT/BT/TOT/PPP等模式)、产权债权转让等新型的特殊招标咨询服务领域。
第五篇:出国用证书英文,个人陈述
Personal Statement
Wei, Linlin
Motivated by the idea of devoting myself to the well-being of my country and its people since childhood, I chose public administration as my major in college.During four years of academic study in Shandong Normal University, which ranks among top 50 in the field of Public Administration research in China, I was equipped with the basic knowledge on the political system and the operation of government agencies in China.I took several introductory courses on this subject in college, including Public Policy Analysis, Human Resources Management, and Public Administration.The more I learned, the more deep thinking I had.Luckily, after graduation from college, I got the chance to further my education in the School of Public Administration in Renmin University of China, which enjoys the highest reputation in China’s Public Administration academic community.I was greatly influenced by a number of Public Administration theories such as Bureaucracy, Reinventing government, New Public Management, Citizen Participation and so on, and managed to apply these methodologies and principles in my research on the administrative reform in Chinese central government.What is more, the free atmosphere in RUC made me reflect upon diverse perspectives and possible solutions in the process of policy-making, and most significantly, strengthened my determination to pursue my career as a public servant.With a master’s degree on Public Administration, I started my career in the Department of Human Resources in Chongqing Police Bureau, which boasts a staff of nearly 40,000 police officers.During the past two years, I was mainly in charge of Personnel Management and Organizational Reform, including recruiting and allocation of talents, performance evaluation, personnel reform measures, and establishment of new police branches and so on.It was really a good feeling to be helpful to people who needed improvements in their careers and organizations who wished to get a better performance in operation.Although I have always been proud of being able to put what I had learned through college education into professional practice, it was still a challenge for me to deal with the most creative part of my job—how to encourage people to develop to their full potential and thus make the entire agency benefit from taking such initiatives.I hope to find some possible solutions by having my knowledge undated and my horizon broadened.With these goals in mind, I decided to further my theoretical background through the MPA program in UIC, to get some inspirational learning experiences from a different culture.I am fully confident that your program will not only enable me to learn how to explore individual capacity through human resource management and organizational changes, but also inspire me to think about potential solutions for governments to take in tackling problems in an increasingly open and democratic society.I will return to my job after graduation, and make efforts to figure out how to apply those promising principles to the operation of Chongqing Police Bureau.Meanwhile, I also sincerely cherish the hope that there will be contributions that I could make to this program as an international student.Yours Sincerely,