economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照

第一篇：economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照

Economist经济学人精品文章

Whopper to go 至尊汉堡，打包带走

Will Burger King be gobbled up by private equity? 汉堡王是否会被私人股本吞并？

Sep 2nd 2010 | NEW YORK

SHARES in Burger King(BK)soared on September 1st on reports that the fast-food company was talking to several private-equity firms interested in buying it.How much beef was behind these stories was unclear.But lately the company famous for the slogan ―Have It Your Way‖ has certainly not been having it its own way.There may be arguments about whether BK or McDonald‘s serves the best fries, but there is no doubt which is more popular with stockmarket investors: the maker of the Big Mac has supersized its lead in the past two years.有报道披露，快餐企业汉堡王（BK）正在与数个有收购意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，汉堡王的股值随之飙升。这些报道究竟有多少真材实料不得而知。汉堡王的著名口号是―我选我味‖，但如今显然它身不由己，心中五味杂陈。汉堡王和麦当劳哪家薯条最好吃，食客们一直争论不休，但股票投资人更喜欢哪家股票，却一目了然：过去两年里，巨无霸麦当劳一直在扩大自己的优势。

Recession has favoured McDonald‘s over BK, whose share price has fallen by half since the economy was flame-grilled in the summer of 2008.Shares in McDonald‘s have risen, reaching an all-time high in August.Same-store sales at BK have fallen for five successive quarters.金融危机却更青睐汉堡王，自2008年经济低迷以来，其股票价格跌至原来的一半。而麦当劳的股票不跌反涨，在8月又创下了历史新高。汉堡王的同店销售额连续五个季度下跌。

Why has McDonald‘s been eating BK‘s lunch? Among other things, BK has always had a higher proportion of sales to young men, who have been hit especially hard by the recession.McDonald‘s, by contrast, has for several years wooed women and older people with relatively healthy salads and drinkable coffee.BK has struggled to follow suit.At the same time, it has had to contend with angry shareholders, as the rising cost of beef and other ingredients has clobbered its profits.BK may also have cannibalised its existing sales by offering value meals that were a bit too irresistible.为何麦当劳在与汉堡王的竞争中占得先机？别的不谈，汉堡王的顾客更多的是年轻人，而年轻人受金融危机打击尤其严重。相对地，麦当劳近年来一直以相对健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。汉堡王一直难以模仿。与此同时，随着牛肉等原材料的成本上涨，利润一跌再跌，汉堡王又不得不去对付那些愤怒的股东。汉堡王的套餐太过诱人，可能也影响了其他产品的销量。

BK is used to changes in ownership.It went from being part of Pillsbury, a food company, to Grand Metropolitan, a British conglomerate, then to Diageo, a drinks giant.In 2002 it was sold to a group of private-equity investors: TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs.They did a fair job, improving sales with better marketing.They also helped turn around the most troubled of the franchisees who operate most BK restaurants.In 2006 BK floated its shares again.Its bosses may hope that going private once more will protect them from short-term stockmarket pressures while they ponder how to beat McDonald‘s.汉堡王此前多次易主，已经习以为常了。它曾是皮尔斯百利食品公司的一部分，后转入英国大都会集团，继而转投饮品巨头帝亚吉欧。2002年又被转手卖给一批私人股本投资者：德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛。他们经营良好，利用优秀市场策略增加了销售。大部分汉堡王餐厅的运营商当时经营不善，他们还助其扭亏为盈。2006年汉堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以规避短期股市压力，为其争取时间定策击败麦当劳。

If BK does go private, it may be part of a trend in the private-equity industry—now that some of the bigger firms have rediscovered their appetite for deals—of gobbling up the companies they had taken public during the bubble years but which are now trading cheaply.TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs still own a sizeable stake in BK, despite listing it on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006.However, it seems that other private-equity firms are interested in buying it.If that happens, no doubt BK servers will appreciate the irony: the act of passing a company from one private-equity firm to another is known in the business as ―flipping‖.私人股本行业——如今一些大公司重新对收购有了兴趣——吞并那些他们在经济泡沫时代卖掉，现在十分廉价的公司，俨然已成一股大潮，如果汉堡王真的私有化，就将融入这股大潮之中。德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛虽然2006年在纽约证券交易所已经兜售了汉堡王，但他们仍握有可观的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收购。要是真被他们收购，无疑汉堡王的服务生都能领会其中的讽刺：在私人股本公司中被倒卖，在做汉堡这行叫―翻面‖。

本主题由 shiyi18 于 2010-11-12 13:16 移动评分

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Down the slipway下水

―Quantitative easing‖ is unloved and unappreciated—but it is working ―量化宽松‖不受待见，但是有效 Nov 4th 2010 | Washington, dc

EVEN before the Federal Reserve unveiled its second round of quantitative easing(QE)on November 3rd, critics had already denounced it as ineffectual or an invitation to inflation.It cannot be both and it may not be either.美联储的第二轮量化宽松政策在11月3日公布之前便已受到了各方抨击，有人说它不会起效，也有人说这样会导致通胀。这两者根本不可能同时发生，甚至一个都不会发生。The announcement of ―QE2‖ was hardly breathtaking.The Fed said it will buy $600 billion of Treasuries between now and next June, at about $75 billion a month, although it also said it could adjust the amount and timing if need be.That was about what markets expected but far less than the $1.75 trillion of debt it bought between early 2009 and early 2010 in its first round of QE.Yet QE2 seems already to have exceeded the low expectations it has aroused.Since Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, hinted at it at Jackson Hole on August 27th, markets have all done exactly what they should(see chart).第二轮量化宽松并没有惊人之处。美联储称，从现在起到明年6月，它将购买6 000亿美元美国国债，相当于每月购买750亿美元，但具体数字可能随情况进行调整。这一规模与市场预期相当，远低于2009年初至2010年初第一轮量化宽松（总共购买债务1.75万亿美元）。但第二轮量化宽松似乎已经超过了它所引起的低预期。自美联储主席本?伯南克于8月27日在杰克森霍尔（Jackson Hole）暗示这一计划以来，市场对此已有了充分的反映（见图）。

Under QE the Fed buys long-term bonds with newly created money.This lowers long-term yields and chases investors into riskier, alternative investments.The real yield on ten-year, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds has fallen from 1.05% to 0.5%, a result of relatively flat nominal yields and a rise in expected inflation.The yield on their five-year cousins is negative(see Buttonwood).Share prices are up by 14% in the same period.Lower yields make the dollar less appealing: it has duly fallen by 5% against the Japanese yen, by 9% against the euro and by 5% on a trade-weighted basis.―You can declare QE to be a success already,‖ says one hedge-fund economist.―Whether this translates into real activity remains a question-mark.But the question of whether the mechanism would work has been answered.‖

在量化宽松计划中，美联储将通过发行新钞买入长期债券。这压低了后者的收益率，使投资者转向风险更高的替代投资品。在名义收益率相对较平和预期通胀的双重作用下，10年期通胀指数化美国国债真实收益率从1.05%下降至0.5%。五年期品种则已呈现负利率（见本期Bottonwood）。同期，股票市场上涨了14%。收益率的下降使美元失去了吸引力：美元对日元下跌了5%，对欧元下跌了9%，从贸易加权角度看，则下跌了5%。一位对冲基金经济学家说：―可以说，量化宽松已经获得了成功。它能不能转化为实际行动还不好说。但其机制是否起作用已经毋庸置疑了。‖

With a bit of a lag, these easier financial conditions are supposed to boost growth through three channels.First, lower real yields spur borrowing and investment.This channel is bunged up: many households cannot borrow because their homes have fallen in value and because banks are less willing to lend.But the remaining two channels remain open.Higher share prices have raised household wealth by some $1.4 trillion, which will spur some spending.And the lower dollar should help trade.American factory purchasing managers reported a sharp jump in export orders in October and a drop in imports.一般认为，宽松的金融环境将通过三个渠道提振经济增长（可能存在时滞）。第一，真实收益率下降能够刺激借贷与投资。这一渠道目前已经失去了作用：许多家庭因为房价下跌和银行不愿意借贷而无法得到贷款。但剩下的两个渠道仍然畅通。股价上涨已使家庭财富增加了1.4万亿美元，这将刺激支出。美元下跌则应该有利于贸易。美国工厂采购经理报告显示，10月份出口订单出现了大幅增长，进口则有所下降。

Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, reckons that the Fed will eventually buy $1.5 trillion of debt under QE2, and that this will raise growth next year to 3.6% from 3.3% without QE.That‘s not exactly overwhelming: the firm thinks the Fed would have to buy $5.25 trillion of bonds to achieve the equivalent of a –4% federal-funds rate, which is what the economy needs.The Fed will not do that for fear of unknown consequences, among them the response of Congress‘s newly empowered Republicans.In a Bloomberg poll, 60% of self-identified tea-party supporters favoured overhauling or abolishing the Fed.咨询公司Macroeconomic Advisers认为，美联储在第二轮量化宽松中将总共购买1.5万亿美元债务，使明年的经济增长率从3.3%（如果不实行量化宽松的话）提高到3.6%。这还不是最令人震惊的：该公司还认为，美国经济需要联邦基金利率下降到-4%的水平，要达到这一效果，美联储必须购买5.25万亿美元债券才行。要美联储抛出如此大手笔是不可能的，因为它害怕因此导致不可预料的后果，比如引起最近在国会中重掌大权的共和党人的激烈反应。彭博社（Bloomberg）的调查显示，60%自称茶党支持者的人赞成改组甚至取消美联储。

Could QE work too well and drive inflation expectations to dangerous levels? ―The odds aren‘t zero,‖ says Don Kohn, a former Fed vice-chairman, but they‘re small.There‘s more risk that expectations could rise once credit loosens up and spending accelerates.That, however, would be a signal that the Fed has succeeded;it can then tighten policy.量化宽松会过犹不及、将通胀预期推高到危险水平吗？―并非不可能。‖前美联储副主席邓?考恩（Don Kohn）说，但可能性很小。更大的风险是通胀预期在信贷放松和支出增速之后抬头。但这正是美联储成功的信号，届时它已经可以采取紧缩措施了。

Other countries complain that QE is merely bringing them overvalued currencies and bubbly asset markets by pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere.But that may be unavoidable given their divergent growth paths.Both India and Australia raised interest rates this week despite rising currencies.其他国家抱怨量化宽松的唯一作用是，将美国投资者驱向其他国家寻找高收益，是当地货币升值并产生资产泡沫。但这是无论如何都不能避免的事情，因为各个国家的增长路径各不同。印度和澳大利亚本周均在本国货币升值的情况下提高了利率。

A damaging round of beggar-thy-neighbour currency interventions cannot be ruled out.But the Bank of Japan, after intervening directly to weaken the yen in September, has struck upon a more benign response.It had been scheduled to release details of its own QE at a regular policy meeting in mid-November but moved the date forward to this week.Analysts suspect this was to counteract upward pressure on the yen because of the Fed‘s move.If central banks all print money in unison, and don‘t mop up excess liquidity, then the result could be a worldwide monetary fillip.QE‘s benefits should not be over-egged.Nor should they be dismissed.不能排除发生一种危险情况，那就是各国竞相采取以邻为壑的货币市场干预手段。日本银行在9月就曾经直接干预外汇市场使日元贬值，但这一回，日本银行的反应较为温和。原定11月中旬政策例会上宣布的日本量化宽松计划将提前至本周。分析师认为日本央行此举是为了缓和美联储动作给日元带来的升值压力。如果各国央行一起开动印钞机，而不顾流动性过剩的后果，那么结果将是全球货币刺激。没有必要过分强调量化宽松的好处，但也不应该刻意贬低。

Opening stand 登场

Luck may play a big role in launching successful careers 上佳的运气是成功职业开端的一半

Nov 18th 2010

IN CRICKET batsmen often need a slice of luck to build a decent innings.Might that be true of cricketers‘ careers in general, and even of other jobs? In an IMF working paper Shekhar Aiyar and Rodney Ramcharan suggest that it is lucky for international cricketers to play their debut Test(international)match at home.在板球比赛中，击球手通常需要点运气才能打出不错的击球局。所有板球选手都是这样吗？其他职业也是如此吗？在一篇IMF工作论文中，Shekhar Aiyar和Rodney Ramcharan提出，就（国际）对抗赛（Test）而言，能在主场上演职业生涯首秀对于板球选手来说是件幸事。

Playing at home means familiar pitches and climatic conditions, and a more supportive crowd(just ask the English cricketers whose series against Australia starts in Brisbane on November 25th).Sifting through the data on 790 cricketers who made their Test debuts between 1950 and 1985, the authors find that playing at home rather than away raises the average number of runs scored in their first series by 33% and reduces the runs that a bowler concedes by 18%.主场作战意为着更熟悉的场地和天气状况，以及更高的观众支持率（关于这一点，11月25日做客布里斯班与澳大利亚进行系列赛的英格兰板球队队员将有切身体会）。通过分析1950至1985年间790位板球手在对抗赛处子秀上的表现，两位作者发现，主场作战平均能将处子系列赛得分―跑‖次数较客场提高33%，将被对方投手封杀的―跑‖的次数降低18%。

This would not be luck, of course, if team selectors deliberately give home debuts to better players.But first starts are often the result of random events such as the injury or poor performance of existing team members.By using age as a proxy for ability(assuming that younger players who force their way into international sides tend to be more talented), the authors find that the distribution of cricketers‘ ages is almost identical for home and away debuts.当然，如果各队有意将主场处子秀的机会留给较为优秀的选手的话，那么出现上述结果就并非运气了。但处子秀本身是由一系列随机事件决定的：比如队友受伤或是状态低迷等。两位作者将年龄作为能力的一个代表因素（假设选手成功登上国际赛场的年龄越低，则其水平就越优秀），结果发现，板球选手主场处子秀年龄分布和客场没有区别。

A strong debut seems to lead to a shinier career.Every additional ten runs scored in a debut series adds an extra five runs to a player‘s career average.The effects of initial success are similar for bowlers.One possibility is that a good start builds confidence and experience that boosts future performance.A bad start, in contrast, is not easily forgiven: selectors appear to discard potentially high-ability players who had the misfortune to debut abroad.强势处子秀似乎意味着辉煌的职业生涯。系列赛处子秀上得分跑次数每增加10次，选手职业生涯平均得分跑次数就能增加5次。开门红效应对投手也适用。原因可能是成功的开端所带来的信心和经验能够刺激选手的未来表现。反之，如果处子秀演砸了，就可能留下持久的阴影：首秀是在客场，又没能出彩，那么即使你很有潜质，在后来的比赛中也可能得不到出场机会。

A good start may have a persistent, positive impact in other fields, too.That‘s especially likely if employers take things at face value and fail to discount the impact of other factors that might enable good performance—a boom in financial markets for a trader, let‘s imagine.良好的开端在其他领域也可能有持久的正面效应。特别是，当雇主只看表面结果而忽略其他可能带来良好表现的因素时，开门红效应就尤为显著。大牛市对于交易员的影响就是其中之一。

A rock, not a hard place 选石的，不选硬的

Boom time for miners in a resource-hungry region 资源饥渴地区的矿业繁荣

Nov 11th 2010 | Hong Kong

IT CAN sometimes feel as if bankers in Asia are shifting their focus backwards along the economic food chain.First they moved from manufacturing to property.Now it‘s the turn of rocks.有时候，银行家在亚洲的一举一动让人感到他们是在逆经济食物链而动。他们先是将注意力从制造业转向房地产。现在则轮到了矿石。

In Hong Kong alone seven mining and natural-resources firms have gone public this year, raising HK$36 billion($4.6 billion)in the process.Another 13 listed in 2009, raising HK$58 billion, up from not very much the year before.A further 10-15 firms are due to list over the next year and the sums raised will almost certainly be bigger than before, thanks to Asia‘s appetite for raw materials and inexorably rising commodities prices.光是在香港，今年以来便已有7家矿产和自然资源公司上市，总融资额高达360亿港币。2009年全年共有13家矿产类公司在香港上市，融资580亿港币，较清淡的2008年有所增长。明年还有10~15家公司等着上市。由于亚洲对原材料的巨大需求和不断上涨的商品价格，总融资额达到空前高度已是板上钉钉。

One of the more meteoric ascents has been that of Sino Prosper State Gold Resources Holdings, a Hong Kong-listed company which a year ago was barely more than a shell company.It had an agreement to buy what was thought to be a small mine in Inner Mongolia, along with five undeveloped tracts of land in a remote area of Heilongjiang, in China‘s north-eastern tip.The firm was valued on the Hong Kong stock exchange at HK$400m.Since then the price of gold has spiked, and the mine has been bought and turned out to be not so very small after all.Sino Prosper‘s valuation is currently HK$3.5 billion and it has become a beacon for other minerals firms.矿产类股票中火速蹿升，其中中盈国金控股有限公司的表现尤其耀眼。这家香港上司公司一年前还是个皮包公司，手里握有一张协议，内容据说是关于收购内蒙古一家小型金矿和黑龙江省边远地区五块未开发地皮的，去年的市值为4亿港币。从那儿以后，金价开始飙涨，于是小金矿摇身一变成了大宝库，中盈国金的市值目前已高达35亿港币，成了矿业股中的明星。

Hong Kong‘s Canadian Chamber of Commerce this week held an invitation-only conference on mining.It was packed with Canadian companies in search of capital either through a direct listing(difficult, given profitability requirements at the Hong Kong stock exchange)or a partial investment by a cash-laden, resource-hungry Chinese firm.Investors seemed less concerned by the risks of digging up minerals, more by potential political obstacles in the wake of the Canadian government‘s intervention to block BHP Billiton‘s hostile takeover of Potash Corporation.上周，众多加拿大公司出席了一个由香港加拿大商会（Canadian Chamber of Commerce）举办的凭柬入场矿业会议，或是争取直接上市（这比较困难，因为香港股票交易所对上市公司盈利能力要求较高），或是寻求手握重金又急切需要资源的中国企业作为部分投资人，以获得资本。投资者们似乎不太担心挖矿风险，而是更加顾忌潜在的政治障碍——加拿大政府干预叫停了必和必拓（BHP Billiton）对Potash公司的敌意收购。

Enthusiasm for minerals firms is not found just in Hong Kong.There are stirrings in less likely places, too.The Mongolian stock exchange, located in a lovely old cinema in Ulan Bator, has been transformed into a meeting place for international bankers.Locally listed miners are booming.A tie-up between the Mongolian bourse and the London Stock Exchange is expected to be announced by the end of the month.并非只有香港出现了矿业公司狂热。在某些意想不到的地方，矿业股也是热火朝天。位于乌兰巴托一座漂亮的老剧院内蒙古证券交易所最近成了国际银行家的聚会之地。本地的上市矿业公司非常火爆。蒙古证券交易所与伦敦证券交易所（London Stock Exchange）的合作预计将于本月末公布。

Only two large mines are currently being developed—gold and copper in Oyu Tolgoi, coal in Tavan Tolgoi—but there are numerous smaller mines throughout the country and 15 major deposits that are the source of serious discussions between global mining giants and the government, says Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt of TenGer, a bank holding company.Financiers are on the hunt for investment opportunities in other businesses, too.Mr Hutagt calls Mongolia a wolf economy, hungry and eager.Just like the bankers.目前蒙古只有两个较大的矿处于开发中——Oyu Tolgoi的金铜伴生矿和Tavan Tolgoi的煤矿。但是，TenGer银行控股公司的Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt透露，有传言说蒙古政府正在就全国众多小型矿和15个主要大矿与全球矿业巨头进行重要谈判。除了矿产企业之外，金融家也在蒙古寻求着其他业务机会。Hutagt用―狼‖来形容蒙古经济，认为它又饥饿又迫切。这倒是与银行家颇为相似。America's budget deficit 美国的预算赤字

Speak softly and carry a big chainsaw 轻声细语的德州电锯

Sorting out America‘s fiscal mess is relatively simple.What‘s needed is political courage 欲解美国财政乱局何其简单，政治勇气足以

Nov 18th 2010

LAST week Asia, this week Europe: no wonder Barack Obama has been to so many foreign summits since his party took a pounding in the mid-term elections.With the prospect of gridlock at home, a president naturally turns abroad.Yet Mr Obama badly needs to show that he can still lead on domestic policy.He should start by cajoling Congress into an agreement to tackle America‘s ominous fiscal arithmetic.自从奥巴马领军的民主党在中期选举中身受重创后，他两周内接连出访欧亚两洲；因此频繁出席境外峰会也就不稀奇了。既然国内前景仍是一片僵局，那么总统先生转战国外也算是自然而然的事情。然而奥巴马目前急需证明自己仍有能力引领国内政局；鉴于目前美国的―预算数学题‖非常难解，他不妨从这里开始，但需要拉拢国会以便达成共识。

Conventional wisdom says such an agreement is impossible: the problem is too big, the politics too difficult.But it is wrong to suppose that the deficit is unfixable, as two proposals for fixing it have shown this month(see article).And even the politics may not be totally intractable.公众的态度是这种共识无法形成：问题太严重，政见太复杂。不过认为赤字问题无药可救也是片面的，因为仅本月就已经出现了两个应对提案。甚至掌控政治问题也非难事。

A trillion-dollar trove 上万亿的聚宝盆

The scale of America‘s fiscal problem depends on how far ahead you look.Today‘s deficit, running at 9% of GDP, is huge.Federal debt held by the public has shot up to 62% of GDP, the highest it has been in over 50 years.But that is largely thanks to the economy‘s woes.If growth recovers, the hole left by years of serial tax-cutting and overspending can be plugged: you need to find spending cuts or tax increases equal only to 2% of GDP to stabilise federal debt by 2015.But look farther ahead and a much bigger gap appears, as an ageing population needs ever more pensions and health care.Such ―entitlements‖ will double the federal debt by 2027;and the number keeps on rising after then.The figures for state and local debt are scary too.美国财政问题的严重程度取决于预期时间的长短。目前巨额的赤字水平已经达到了GDP的9%。拜美国的苦难经济所赐，社会需求造成的联邦债务对GDP比例达到了62%，这是过去50多年来从未出现过的。如果经济恢复增长，那么连续数年减税政策和过度消费导致的缺口就有可能得到弥补：如果希望在2015年使联邦债务达到稳定水平，仅需相当于GDP2%的支出削减或者税收增加就可以实现。但如果预测更长远的未来，那么人口老龄化会增高的养老金和健康保障计划的需求，缺口就将变的更大。类似的―社保支出‖将会迫使联邦债务在2027年翻倍；而且会越来越高。州债务和地方债务看起来同样可怕。The solution should start with an agreement between Mr Obama and Congress on a target for a manageable level of publicly held federal debt: say, 60% of GDP by 2020.They should also agree on the broad balance between lower spending and higher taxes to achieve this.This newspaper believes that the lion‘s share of the adjustment should come on the spending side.Entitlements are at the root of the problem and need to be trimmed, and research has shown that although spending cuts weigh on growth in the short run, they hurt less than higher taxes.And in the long run later retirement and other reforms will expand the labour force and thus potential output, whereas higher taxes dull incentives to work and invest.解决问题的前提是奥巴马必须同国会达成共识，目标是将社会需求造成的美国政府债保持在可控的水平内；比如2020年达到GDP的60%。同时还要在减少支出和增加税收上形成一致意见，以便寻求二者之间的大体平衡。本刊认为调整的重头戏是在支出方面。社保支出是问题的根源，需要进行削减；尽管研究表明削减支出在短期内会影响到经济增长，但对经济造成的伤害却远不及税收增加。从长期来看，延长退休年龄及其他改革举措必将扩张劳动力大军，进而增加潜在产出；但高税收弱化了工作的激励机制，同时使投资热情也大大衰退。

Yet even to believers in small government, like this newspaper, there are good reasons for letting taxes take at least some of the strain.Politically, this will surely be the price of any bipartisan agreement.Economically, there is sensible room for manoeuvre without damaging growth.American taxes are relatively low after the reductions of recent years.In an ideal world the tax burden would be gradually shifted from income to consumption(including a carbon tax).But that is politically hard—and there is a much easier target for reform.本刊属于笃信小政府的人，甚至对于所有这样的人来说，都有充足的理由认为税收应该分担部分压力。从政治角度上来说，两党取得的任何共识都要付出一定的代价；从经济角度上看，在不伤害经济增长的情况下还有一定的调整空间。经过近些年的连续削减，美国的税率水平已经达到了相当低的程度。在完美状态下，税收负担应该逐渐从收入领域转移到消费领域（包括烟尘排放税）。不过这对政治是一个巨大的挑战，毕竟还有很多容易解决的改革目标。

America‘s tax system is riddled with exemptions, deductions and credits that feed an industry of advisers but sap economic energy.Simply scrapping these distortions—in other words, broadening the base of taxation without any new taxes—could bring in some $1 trillion a year.Even though some of this would have to go in lowering marginal rates, it is a little like finding money behind the sofa cushions.The tax system would be simpler, fairer and more efficient.All this means that America can sensibly aim for a balance between spending cuts and higher taxes similar to the benchmark set by Britain‘s coalition government.A ratio of 75:25 is about right.美国的税收体系给税收豁免、税收扣减和信贷留了许多开口，这不仅养活了整个顾问行业，还消耗了经济的整体能量。每年仅仅为了冲抵这些差异（换而言之，没有新税种增加的情况下增加税收基础）就要耗费一万亿美元。为了实现这个目的不得不降低边际税率，但多少有点儿像在沙发垫子后面寻找钱财。税收体系将会更加简单、公平和高效。所有这些意味着美国可以理智的在职出削减和提高税收之间找到平衡，类似于英国联合政府设定的基准。75:25差不多就是正确的比例了。

There is legitimate concern that, done hastily, austerity could derail a weak recovery.But this strengthens the case for a credible deficit-reduction plan.By reassuring markets that America will control its debt, the government will have more scope to boost the economy in the short term if need be—for instance by temporarily extending the Bush tax cuts.这其中还有一些合理的担忧：如果操之过急，限制消费必将颠覆原本就很羸弱的经济复苏。这种忧虑让人们主张削减赤字方案必须值得信赖。如果美国政府可以向市场证明自己仍然可以控制债务，那么在需要的时候仍有更大的余地去推动经济发展，比如继续延长布什政府时期的税务削减政策。

Mr Obama and the Republicans are brimming with ideas for freezing discretionary spending, which covers most government operations from defence to national parks.They have found common cause in attacking ―earmarks‖, the pet projects that lawmakers insert into bills.But discretionary outlays, including defence, are less than 40% of the total budget.Entitlements, in particular Social Security(pensions)and Medicare and Medicaid(health care for the elderly and the poor), represent the bulk of spending and even more of spending growth.奥巴马和共和党人都热衷于冻结机动支出的理念，这涵盖了从国防到国家公园的大部分政府部门。他们已经将声讨―特定用途之处‖作为共同事业，这正是法律制定者们梦寐以求的计划。问题在于包括国防在内的机动支出仅占总预算的40%。社保支在支出中的权重很高，增长幅度也比较大；特别是社会保障（养老金）、医疗保险和医疗补助制度（针对老年人和贫困人群的健康保障计划）。

On pensions, the solution is clear if unpopular: people will need to work longer.America should index the retirement age to longevity and make the benefit formula for upper-income workers less generous.The ceiling on the related payroll tax should be increased to cover 90% of earnings, from 86% now.养老金方面的应对举措可能不太受欢迎，但是却非常明了：延长人们的工作年限。美国应该根据寿命调整退休年龄系数，同时应该调低高收入工人的福利。目前相关的工资税应税上限是收入的86%，这个比例应该增加到90%。

Health-care spending is a much tougher issue, because it is being fed by both the ageing of the population and rising per-person demand for services.Richer beneficiaries should pay more of their share of Medicare, while the generosity of the system should be kept in check by the independent panel set up under Mr Obama‘s health reform to monitor services and payments.The simplest way for the federal government to restrain Medicaid would be to end the current system of matching state spending and replace this with block grants, which would give the states an incentive to focus on cost-control.健康保障支出方面的问题要麻烦得多，因为人口老龄化现象和增高的人均服务需求共同促进了这项支出的增长。富裕的受益者应该为他们的医疗保险付出更多，同时保障体系的恩惠必须长期受都独立委员会的监察，该组织成立于奥巴马的健康改革过程中，指责是对服务和各项支付进行监督。联邦政府也有简单易行的方法来限制医疗补助制度的开销：取消各州相同的现行体系，代之以分类财政补贴，此举可以激励各州政府关注与支出控制。

Chainsaw you can believe in 电锯绝对值得信赖

Devising a plan that reduces the deficit, and eventually the debt, to a manageable size is relatively easy.Getting politicians to agree to it is a different thing.The bitter divide between the parties means that politicians pay a high price for consorting with the enemy.So Democrats cling to entitlements, and Republicans live in fear of losing their next party nomination to a tea-party activist if they bend on taxes.Even the president‘s own bipartisan commission can‘t agree on what to do.设计方案来压缩目前的赤字、并最终缩减债务，使其达到可控的水平是非常容易的。困难的事让政客们同意这个方案。两党分歧之痛意味着政敌间的结交需要高昂的代价。因此民主党人紧抓社保支出；如果共和党人专注于税收变革，就会终日担心在下次党内选举中败给茶党。即使总统的两党工作组也无法决定下一步的举措。

But true leaders turn the hard into the possible.Two things should prompt Mr Obama.First, the politics of fiscal truth may be less awful than he imagines.Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both won second terms after trimming entitlements or raising taxes.Polls in other countries suggest that nowadays tough love can sell.Second, in the long term economics will tell: unless it changes course, America is heading for a bust.If Mr Obama lacks the guts even to start tackling the problem, then ever more Americans, this paper and even those foreign summiteers will get ever more frustrated with him.但真正的领袖可以胜任人所不能。奥巴马面前有两个提示：第一，财政真相政治后果应该没有他想象的那么恐怖，里根和克林顿就在削减社保计划或提高税收后谋得连任。其他国家的选举也表明今时今日专制的爱同样有市场。第二，从长远来看，除非美国可以改变发展方向，否则必然走向衰败。如果奥巴马连着手应对问题的勇气都没有，那么更多的美国民众、本刊和那些峰会的参与者对他将更加泄气。Divided we fall 不合则亡

Britain and France need each other to continue as great(ish)powers

英国和法国要想继续保持其全球大国（或准大国）的地位，两国就必须牢牢捆在一起

Nov 4th 2010 2010年11月4日

表1:防务能力的混合与重组

英国

法国

2009年国防预算

583亿美元

639亿美元

武装部队总人数

17.8万人 25万人

航空母舰

2艘

1艘

驱逐舰

6艘

11艘

护卫舰

17艘

20艘

攻击型潜艇

7艘

6艘

作战飞机

300架

360架

武装直升机

233架

246架

战略导弹核潜艇

4艘

数据来源: ⅡSS；DASA/MOD：经济学人杂志社

THEY may not always see eye to eye, but when it comes to defence, the interests of France and Britain converge.The two countries are respectively the third and fourth biggest military spenders in the world.Both see themselves as global players, ready and willing to project expeditionary force.But fiscal austerity has threatened the ability of both to live up to those grandiose ambitions.Only by working much more closely together, they have concluded, can two medium-sized European countries hope to stay in the great-power game.Hence the 50-year defence and security co-operation treaty signed this week in London by David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy.法国和英国偶尔可能也会出现一些纷争，但涉及到国防，他们的利益就无甚差别了。这两国的军事开支分别居世界第三和第四位。两国都认为自己是全球事务参与者，具有远距投送军事力量的能力与意愿。但紧缩的财政已经威胁到两国实现上述宏大目标的能力。这两个欧洲大国已经得出结论，要想继续参与全球大国的博弈，他们只有进行更加紧密地合作。正是有鉴于此，卡梅伦与萨科齐本周在伦敦签订了这项为期50年的防务与安全合作条约。

The main items in the pact are a combined joint expeditionary force and an agreement to operate aircraft-carrier strike groups using aircraft and escort vessels contributed by both countries.But much of the treaty deals with less glamorous equipment and capabilities.Training and maintenance for the new A400M transport aircraft that the two nations are buying will be pooled.Britain is keen to share its new A300-based aerial tankers, if a financial deal to do so can be reached.该条约的主要条款包括组建一支联合远征部队和一个联合航母作战群，舰载机与护航舰只由两个国家分摊。但条约的大量条款涉及的都是不那么引人注目的装备与能力。这两个国家都正在购买A400M型军用运输机，这种新机型的培训与维护将联合进行。如果能够达成资金分摊的协议，英国是急切地想要两国共享其新购进的A300改型空中加油机。

The two countries will jointly develop nuclear-submarine technologies, satellite communications and maritime-mine countermeasures.The big defence industries of both will be encouraged to co-operate on the next generation of surveillance drones and assorted new missiles, with the aim of forging a single prime European contractor for ―complex weapons‖.两国将联合研发核潜艇技术，联合发展卫星通信和反水雷战的能力。将鼓励两国的大型国防工业企业合作研发新一代的无人侦察机和各种新型导弹，目标是要打造单一的―复杂武器系统‖欧洲总承包商。

Most dramatically, a separate treaty has been signed on nuclear co-operation.This is remarkable, given the different approaches that France and Britain have taken towards their nuclear deterrents(Britain depends heavily on American kit, while France‘s force de frappe is a supreme symbol of national sovereignty).With the blessing of the United States, Britain‘s Aldermaston research establishment will concentrate on developing technology, while its French counterpart at Valduc will carry out simulated warhead testing.最有戏剧性的是，两国还签订了一个单独的核合作条约。考虑到英法两国在构建核威慑力量上的不同做法，这一点颇为引人注目。（英国的核武系统严重依赖美国提供的装备，而法国的核攻击力则是其国家主权的最高象征）。由于有美国盟友的帮助，英国的奥尔德玛斯顿研究机构可以专注于研发技术，而法国位于瓦尔杜克（Valduc）的核研究机构就必须进行核弹头的模拟试验。

Predictably, there was much harrumphing in Britain‘s jingoistic popular press.A few retired politicians were dragged out to reminisce about slights suffered at the hands of the perfidious Frogs.The reaction in France was more muted, perhaps because the agreement carefully avoids any of the visionary language about European architectures that excites French imaginations, but which many British Conservatives, such as the defence secretary, Liam Fox, viscerally loathe.可以预见，在支持强硬外交政策的英国大众媒体上会出现一片不满和反对之声。还会拖出几个退休赋闲的政客来追忆背信弃义的法国佬在过去给英国带来的小小不快。法国的反应则要温和的多，原因也许是该协议小心翼翼地回避了对欧洲架构的预见性表述。只要提起欧洲架构就会激起法国人的想象力，但许多英国保守党人，如国防部长利亚姆?福克斯（Liam Fox）之流，就发自内心地厌恶之。

In fact, most of the objections raised seem either ignorant or anachronistic.Even before France rejoined NATO‘s integrated military structure last year, British and French forces had frequently worked and fought together under the command of one or other country.With the exception of the Iraq controversy, the two have rarely found themselves on opposite sides during recent international crises.For example, Britain‘s defence secretary during the Falklands war, John Nott, revealed in his memoirs that France had been Britain‘s staunchest ally, providing information that helped to render the Exocet anti-ship missiles used by Argentina ineffective, and supplying Mirage and Super-Etendard fighters for British Harrier pilots to pit themselves against in training.事实上，大多数持反对观点的人似乎要么是无知，要么就是落伍于时代。甚至在法国去年重返北约军事一体化架构之前，英法两国的军队就已经频繁地在对方指挥下共同工作和作战。除了伊拉克战争的论战之外，两国在最近出现的国际危机中很少出现对立。例如，英国在马岛战争期间的国防部长约翰?诺特（John Nott）就在他的回忆录中透露，法国在这场冲突中是英国最坚定的盟友，法国提供的情报使阿根廷的飞鱼反舰导弹收效甚微，法国还提供―幻影‖和―超军旗‖式战斗机供英国的鹞式战斗机飞行员进行对抗训练。

Difficulties could arise, however, over shared use of the two countries‘ aircraft carriers, if national priorities and policies do not coincide during future conflicts.One solution would be for Britain not to sell the second carrier it is currently building, which at present seems its likely fate, but to operate it on a timeshare basis with the French.That way it could be made available without caveats to whichever country needed it when its main ship was in refit(a three-year job required every seven years or so).Just don‘t call it Trafalgar.然而共用两国的航母的话，在未来可能爆发的冲突中如果出现国家利益优先和对外政策不相一致的情况，就可能会出现困难。一个解决办法就是英国不卖第二艘在建的航母（目前看来它可能面临胎死腹中的命运），而是与法国分时共享这艘航母。这样一来就可以在其航母整修期间（大约每航行七年左右要有三年时间进行整修），哪个国家需要它都可以不受限制的进行使用。但绝对不要把它命名为―特拉法尔加‖号。

The liquefaction of hardware 硬件熔解

The rise of the virtual computer 虚拟计算机兴起

Nov 18th 2010

IMAGINE a personal computer that has two souls.One moment it is your work machine, complete with a set of corporate applications and tight security settings.Then it becomes an entertainment centre, allowing you to watch any video and download any program.想象一下，一台个人电脑有两个化身，一会是你的工作机器，配有一套企业应用软件和严密的安全设置，一会又变成了一个娱乐中心，准许你随心所欲看视频，下程序。

Thanks to a process called ―virtualisation‖, such computers are now being created.Ever more processing power and clever software are allowing devices of all kinds to separate from their hardware vessels and move to new homes.If this process continues as some expect, it will change computing radically.And more than one IT company will have to rethink how it does business.多亏一种称为―虚拟化‖的技术，这种电脑正被制造出来。处理能力日益强大，聪明软件越来越多，正让各种设备从所在的硬件容器中剥离出来，迁入新居。如若虚拟化进程，像某些人所料那般持续下去，就将从根本上改变计算机运作。而多家IT公司将不得不重新考虑，如何运用该技术做生意。

Virtualisation dates back to the age of mainframe computers.To make better use of them they were sometimes split into smaller ―virtual machines‖, each of which could run its own operating system and application.But the approach took off only in recent years, when VMWare, a software firm, applied it to servers, the powerful computers that populate today‘s corporate data centres.VMWare and its main rivals, Citrix and Microsoft, have since developed all kinds of software tools to manage virtual machines—moving them between data centres, for example.虚拟化始于大型机时代。为优化利用，大型机有时被分割成一些小型―虚拟机‖，每个虚拟机都能运行自己的操作系统及应用软件。但此法近几年突然风行，当时，一家软件公司VMWare将其运用到服务器上，正是这些功能强大的服务器，构成了今天的企业数据中心。VMWare及其主要对手Citrix和Microsoft，那时起就开发了各种虚拟机管理软件工具，比如让虚拟机在数据中心间迁移的软件。

The success of server virtualisation has inspired IT firms and their customers to do the same thing with other types of hardware, such as devices to store data.Software now pools their capacity and allocates ―virtual disks‖ as needed.Going further, Dropbox, an online storage service, saves identical files only once.Even large files can take only seconds to upload if they already exist somewhere on one of these firms‘ disks.服务器虚拟化的成功，启发IT公司及其顾客在其他类型的硬件（如数据存储设备）上，做同样的事。现在，软件可共用这些设备的存储容量，并按需分配―虚拟磁盘‖。进一步来说，一种网络存储服务Dropbox，同一份文件仅存一次。即便是大文件，只要已存在这些公司某个磁盘的某处，上传也只需数秒。

The virtualisation of PCs is now under way.Many company computers can already work with applications that run on a central server.But start-ups are pushing the concept further.Desktone offers virtual desktops as an online service.NComputing, a maker of computer terminals, virtualises PCs so they can be shared by up to 30 users.It has already sold more than 2.5m devices, mostly to developing countries and schools.And technology from MokaFive can send an entire virtual machine—complete with operating systems, applications and data—over the network and install it on any PC.Eventually people may no longer need to carry laptops at all.Virtual computers, including data and applications, will follow them everywhere.个人电脑虚拟化正在进行。许多公司的电脑已能使用运行在一台中心服务器上的应用软件。不过，一些新兴企业正推动此概念进一步深化。Desktone公司提供虚拟桌面网络服务。而一家电脑终端制造商NComputing公司，则将个人电脑虚拟化，使之能为多达30个用户共享。该公司已售出了超过250万台设备，大部分销往了发展中国家与学校。MokaFive公司的技术则能将一整台虚拟机——包括操作系统、应用软件及数据——在网络上迅速迁移，并安装在任一台个人电脑上。最终，人们也许根本不再需要随身携带笔记本电脑。虚拟计算机，包括数据与应用软件，将如影随形。

In the long run, smartphones and other mobile devices may also become shells to be filled as needed.Open Kernel Labs, a start-up in which Citrix has a stake, already lets smartphones run applications, multimedia and radio functions on a single processor, cutting manufacturing costs.Software from Citrix turns the iPad, Apple‘s tablet computer, into a terminal for applications that run in a corporate data centre.终究，智能电话与其他设备也可能变成空壳，按需填充各种软件数据。一家Citrix持股的新兴企业Open Kernel Labs，已使智能电话在一个单处理机上运行应用软件、实现多媒体及收音机功能，削减了制造成本。Citrix的软件，把苹果的平板电脑iPad，变成了一个应用软件终端，而这些软件运行在一个企业数据中心内。

How quickly will virtualisation advance? Gartner, a market-research firm, predicts that the overall market for virtualisation software will grow from $2.7 billion this year to $6.3 billion in 2014.There is certainly no lack of demand.Virtualisation lowers costs by enabling firms to make better use of their servers and buy fewer new ones.The technology also allows PCs to be maintained remotely, which is much cheaper.But improved reliability and security are even more of an attraction.Users of MokaFive, for instance, can relaunch their virtual machine should a computer virus infect it.And it can be shut down if a laptop is lost or stolen.虚拟化步伐将会多快？市场调查公司Gartner预计，虚拟软件整体市场将从今年的27亿美元，增至2014年的63亿美元。需求当然不缺。虚拟化让企业优化使用服务器，减少新服务器采购，从而降低了成本。该技术也允许远程维护个人电脑，这相当便宜。不过，可靠性及安全性改善，则更具吸引力。例如，MokaFive的用户，一旦电脑染毒，虚拟机就重启。而要是其笔记本电脑丢失或被偷，虚拟机就会完全关闭。

Still, analysts believe virtualisation will win out.Its impact will be felt through the industry.The technology not only makes IT systems more flexible, but allows firms to switch vendors more easily—which will weigh on the vendors‘ profits.Big software firms such as Microsoft and Oracle may be hit hardest.But many hardware-makers may suffer as well, since their wares will become even more of a commodity than they are today.尽管如此，分析家认为虚拟化将最终胜出。整个IT业都将感受到其影响。该技术不仅使IT系统更为灵活，也让企业更换销售商更为容易，这将给这些销售商盈利造成压力。诸如Microsoft及Oracle之类的软件巨头可能受打击最重。但许多硬件制造商，由于其产品将变成比现在更有价值的一种商品，也可能遭受重创。

What‘s up, BYOC?（注1）

―自带电脑‖如何？

Moreover, virtualisation makes it much easier to add new servers or storage devices.Alternatively, firms can simply rent extra capacity from operators of what are called ―computing clouds‖, such as Amazon Web Services.That outfit has built a network of data centres in which virtual machines and disks can be launched in seconds.As a result, IT systems will increasingly no longer be a capital expense（注2）, but an operational cost（注3）, like electricity.此外，虚拟化使得增添新服务器或存储设备非常容易。如若不然，企业也能简单地从所谓的―计算云‖运营商（如Amazon Web Services公司）那租用额外磁盘容量。这家厂商已建立了一个数据中心网络，其中的虚拟机及磁盘能在数秒内启动。结果，IT系统愈来愈不是一种资本支出，而是一种运营成本，跟电力一样。

Yet the most noticeable change for computer users will be that more employees will be allowed to bring their own PC or smartphone to work, says Brian Madden of TechTarget, a consultancy.Companies can install a secure virtual heart on private machines, doing away with the need for a separate corporate device.A ―bring your own computer‖ or ―BYOC‖ movement has already emerged in America.Companies such as Citrix and Kraft Foods pay their employees a stipend, which they can use to buy any PC they want—even an Apple Mac.然而，电脑用户感受到的最显著变化，则是更多雇员将获准携带自己的个人电脑或智能电话工作，一家咨询公司TechTarget的Brian Madden这样说。企业可在私人机器上安装一个可靠的虚拟心脏，这也摆脱了对企业设备的单独需求。一种―自带电脑‖或―BYOC‖运动已在美国出现。像Citrix和Kraft Foods这样的公司，付给雇员津贴，让他们用其购买想要的任何电脑，甚或苹果Mac电脑。

Such innovations may help to ease growing tensions between workers and IT departments.New privacy regulations and rampant cybercrime are pushing firms to tighten control of company PCs and smartphones.At the same time more and more ―digital natives（注4）‖ enter the workforce.They have grown up with the freewheeling internet and do not suffer boring black corporate laptops gladly.Giving workers more freedom while helping firms keep control may prove to be the biggest benefit of virtualisation.这类创新或许有助于缓解员工与IT部门间日益紧张的关系。新的隐私规则出台，网络犯罪猖獗，正推动企业加强对公司个人电脑与智能电话的管控。与此同时，越来越多的―数码原住民‖步入职场。他们与无拘无束的互联网一起长大成人，很高兴不用忍受单调乏味的公司黑笔记本电脑。给予员工更多自由，同时协助企业管控，或许证明是虚拟化的最大收益。

注1：What‘s up, BYOC?

小标题源自美国1972年出品的电影―What‘s up, Doc?‖，中文片名一般译为《爱的大追踪》，或―出什么事了，大夫？ / 疯狂飞车大闹唐人街 / 爱的大逃亡‖。

注2：capital expense Capital Spending/Capital Expenditures/Capital Expense 资本支出

某些支出—如购置厂房、机器、设备等—可以使以后多个会计年度受益而非当年消耗完毕，这种支出形成的企业的生产能力，称为资本支出(capital expenditures)。当一个企业花钱购买固定资产或给已有固定资产增加价值时，这就产生了资本支出。在会计中，把支出记作资产的办法，称为资本化。

由于税收的目的，资本支出不能在它们被支付或发生的年度扣除成本，并且必须被资本化。一般的规则是，如果收购的物业的使用年限超过纳税的年限，成本必须被资本化。资本开支成本会在以上资产的使用时期被分期偿还或贬值。

如上所述，资本支出给资产或财产创造或增加了基准，而一旦资本支出调整，将决定出售或转让时的税务责任。

对任何公司的会计问题是，特定的支出是该被资本化还是被算作开销。某个月里被算作开销的支出会很简单的作为成本出现在当月的财务报表中。而资本化的开支，会很多年来分期偿还。资本化的开支会出现在资产负债表上。大多数普通的商业开支很明显的是资本化或是被算作开销，但是某些开支会因公司的偏好而被放在任何一类。

注3：operational cost 营业成本(Operating costs)，也称经营成本、运营成本，是指企业所销售商品或者提供劳务的成本。营业成本应当与所销售商品或者所提供劳务而取得的收入进行配比。营业成本是与营业收入直接相关的，已经确定了归属期和归属对象的各种直接费用。营业成本主要包括主营业务成本、其他业务成本。销售产品、商品和提供劳务的营业成本，是由生产经营成本形成的。工业企业产品生产成本（也称制造成本）的构成主要包括：

1.直接材料：包括企业生产经营过程中实际消耗的直接用于产品的生产，构成产品实体的原材料、辅助材料、备品备件、外购半成品、燃料、动力、包装物以及其他直接材料。2.直接工资：包括企业直接从事产品生产人员的工资、奖金、津贴和补贴。

3.其他直接支出：包括直接从事产品生产人员的职工福利费等。

4.制造费用：企业可以根据自身需要，对成本构成项目进行适当调整。

注4：digital natives 从80年代就开始接触PC的人，现在通常都已过不惑之年。90年代中国PC进入普及阶段的用户，现在也都30出头。这些人经历了模拟时代(机械时代)的种种生活方式和工具，他们试着去转变自己的使用习惯和思维方式，这些人可称为―数字移民(Digital Immigrants)‖。然而1985年之后出生的人，则大不相同：他们成长的年代，已经是数字化的年代。他们属于天生数字(Born Digital)，而且习惯且依赖连接世界(Live Connected)。这类人称为第一代―数字原住民(Digital Native)‖。

A digital native is a person who was born after the general implementation of digital technology, and as a result, has had a familiarity with digital technologies such as computers, the Internet, mobile phones,and digital audio players over their entire lives.A digital immigrant is an individual who was born before the existence of digital technology and adopted it to some extent later.Alternatively, this term can describe people born in the latter 1970s or later, as the Digital Age began at that time;but in most cases the term focuses on people who grew up with 21st Century technology.This term has been used in several different contexts, such as education(Bennett, Maton & Kervin 2008)(in association with the term New Millennium Learners(OECD 2008)).More complicated than you think 比你想象的复杂

A new, giant virus is confounding old certainties 新的、巨型病毒正在挑战人类的思维定势 Oct 28th 2010

BIODIVERSITY is not just a matter of tigers and whales, or butterflies and trees, or even coral reefs and tuna.It is also about myriad creatures too small to see that live in numbers too large to count in ways too numerous to imagine.It is easy to forget, especially at meetings like the one to discuss the Convention on Biological Diversity that has been taking place in Nagoya under the auspices of the United Nations, that most of biology is in fact microscopic.Indeed, the more microscopic biology gets, the more diverse it becomes.生物多样性不仅仅是指老虎和鲸鱼、蝴蝶和森林，甚至也不仅仅是珊瑚礁和金枪鱼。它还指各种小得无法看见、多得无法计算、生存方式令人无法想象的生物。尤其是在联合国主持在名古屋（Nagoya）召开的生物多样性大会上，人们很容易忘记讨论生物学的绝大部分事实上是关于微生物的。实际上，生物越微观，多样性也越明显。

CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988.Despite the recentness of its discovery, C.roenbergensis is one of the commonest creatures on the planet.It is also reckoned by some, given that it hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator on Earth.It is found in every ocean.The samples of C.roenbergensis from which Dr Suttle and his team extracted their quarry were collected off the coast of Texas.CroV，正如其名字所表示的一样，是Cafeteria roenbergensis的一种寄生虫，而前者则是一种人们于1988年发现的以浮游生物为食的单细胞生物。尽管其发现历史不长，Cafeteria roenbergensis是我们这个星球上最常见的物种之一。此外，由于它猎杀、捕食其他细菌，有人据此推断它是地球上数量最多的捕食者。各大洋都能见到其身影。Scuttle和他的团队从中发现CroV的Cafeteria roenbergensis的样品就是来自德州海岸的海水。

To see a world in a grain of sand 从一粒沙子看到一个世界

That quarry‘s nature, reported this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is not a complete surprise.A larger virus, called Mimivirus, which lives in freshwater amoebas, turned up in 2003 and a few other, similar, viruses have been found since then.But CroV is by far the biggest to come out of the sea.本周的《美国国家科学院院刊》报道了这一新发现病毒的性质，这也并非完全出人意料。因为另一个比较大称为―Mimivirus‖的病毒，是一种生活在淡水中变形虫，在2003年就被人发现，还有其他几个类似的病毒之后也相继被人发现。但是CroV是来自海洋的最大的病毒。

Those who like their categories cut and dried may wonder whether viruses are alive or not.Wise biologists do not struggle too much with such questions.Viruses have genes, can reproduce and are subject to the evolutionary pressures imposed by natural selection.That is enough for biology to claim them.As for CroV, those 544 genes(composed of 730,000 base pairs, the DNA letters in which the language of the genes is written)mean its genome is bigger than those of several bacteria—creatures which everyone agrees are alive.那些习惯于传统分类学的人可能想知道病毒是活的还是死的。真正明智的生物学家不太纠缠于这类问题。病毒有基因，能再生，需要应对自然选择的进化压力。对生物学而言，这足以让其有资格成为生物了。至于CroV，那些544个基因（由73万组碱基对组成，这是构成基因语言的DNA字母）表明其基因图谱比几种大家认为是活体的细菌生物要大。

The problem with categorical thinking in biology is that evolution does not work like that.It actually works by whatever works working.If an organism can successfully subcontract part of the business of metabolism to another while retaining the rest itself, rather than offloading the whole lot as most viruses do, then there are no rules to stop it happening.在生物学上，对什么都要分门别类的思维面临的问题是生物进化的方式并非一成不变。进化实际上是不拘一格，随遇而安。如果一种生物能够成功地将部分新陈代谢工作分包给另一个生物，但同时又保留其余的新陈代谢工作，而不是象大多数病毒那样把工作全部推掉，那么，就没有任何规则阻止其进化。

CroV seems to do just that.Besides the genes that relate to protein synthesis it has others which encode DNA repair mechanisms and still others which are involved with protein recycling and signalling within cells.This is not mere hijacking.It is tantamount to a complete personality transplant for the infected cell.Crov似乎正是这么做的。除与蛋白合成有关的基因外，它将DNA修复机制的编码工作以及细胞内蛋白的回收和发送信号工作都交给其他生物完成。这不仅仅是简单的劫持。这相当于将特性完整植入被感染的细胞。

About a third of CroV‘s genes are similar to Mimivirus genes, suggesting they share a distant ancestor.On the other hand, two-thirds are not.A significant chunk of them seem to have been copied from bacteria.But the majority are unique, and previously unknown to science.A whole new chapter of life, in other words, has been opened.CroV的基因中，约有三分之一同Mimivirus基因类似，说明它们之间都拥有共同的祖先。从另一方面讲，它们之间还有三分之二的基因不同。其中很大一部分似乎是从细菌中复制的。但大多数基因在科学上特性明显，属于新发现的基因。换句话说，人类已经翻开了生命研究的新篇章。

This discovery, then—and the earlier one of C.roenbergensis itself—speak volumes, albeit in a microscopic language, about biodiversity.Two centuries after Carl Linnaeus invented the system now used to describe it, and a century after Charles Darwin worked out what causes it, the ability of that diversity to surprise is still staggering.这一发现—以及早先发现的C.roenbergensis —充分说明了生物的多样性，尽管是以微生物的语言表述的。生物多样性至今依然让人眼花缭乱，目不暇接，尽管卡尔?林奈（Carl Linnaeus）200年前就发明了我们现在仍然使用的其描述体系，尽管达尔文100年前就找到了其发生的原因。

Science and Technology

译者心得：

1.本文是科技文章，又是微生物的，很多业外人士有恐惧感（我也不例外），想象拉丁文名字就够头大的。但这类文章语言比较规范，逻辑性强，所以，通过专业工具书解决掉最困难的名称之外，其他部分的翻译，同一般英文一样。

2.几个词汇的处理。首句中的―matter‖很多人译为―事情‖，―是关于什么什么的事情‖，这样的译文读起来很罗嗦，其实担子大一些，置之不理，中文意思也出来了。另外，―Viruses have genes, can reproduce and are subject to the evolutionary pressures imposed by natural selection.That is enough for biology to claim them‖本段中的―Claim‖不太好翻，for biology to claim them，让生物学对它们有主张，让生物学认领它们，其实就是―它们有资格属于生物范畴‖的意思，如果直译，估计译者本人也觉得不是滋味。

3.一个复杂句子的处理。―In that context, the discovery by Curtis Suttle of the University of British Columbia and his colleagues of a critter they propose to call Cafeteria roenbergensis virus, or CroV, should not be surprising‖，先看一下直翻，―从这个意义上讲，由英属哥伦比亚大学的Curtis Suttle和他的同事发现的一种他们建议命名为Cafeteria roenbergensis 病毒的生物，或CroV，不应该太出人意料。‖这样的句子不能说不对，但但起来非常罗嗦，翻译腔太强，因此，在准确表述愿意的前提下，我译为―从这个意义上讲，英属哥伦比亚大学的Curtis Suttle和他的同事发现的一种新生物，不应该太出人意料。他们建议将其命名为Cafeteria roenbergensis病毒，或CroV。‖将原句拆为两句，使其更符合中文行文习惯。这在翻译中很常见，毕竟译出的东西是让中国人看的。

4.一个简单句型的处理。―It is found in every ocean‖，这句话很简单，它被发现于各大洋，它存在于各大洋等等，都不错。但鉴于前文出现―hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator ‖这类动作性很强的语句，我们不妨在这里也―生动‖一些，译为―各大洋都能见到其身影‖。

5.关于逻辑性。翻译其实就是理解外语的逻辑性，然后将其外语按照译入语的逻辑性进行翻译。本文中CroV和Cafeteria roenbergensis什么关系？不要被名字吓倒，注意这句―CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988‖，说得是CroV其实是寄生在Cafeteria roenbergensis上的一种生物，是宿主身上的一种病毒。关系弄清了，下文接着讲的都是宿主Cafeteria roenbergensis的事情，它们如何捕食，生存在什么地方。这其实也就间接介绍了CroV。

6.名言警句的引用。《经济学人》的文章经常不经意间引用一些名言警句、诗词歌赋，恰当地表述其意义。本文不例外。―To see a world in a grain of sand‖在本文中就有类似中文―麻雀虽小，五脏俱全‖的意思，即使是一粒沙子，那上面生存着芸芸众生。建议大家看一部动画片，―Horton hears a who‖，里边讲的是一头大象如何同一朵蒲公英上的生命群体沟通的故事。这句话来自英国诗人William Blake的一首诗： ―A Grain of Sand 一粒沙子

William Blake/威廉.布莱克 To see a world in a grain of sand, And a heaven in a wild flower, Hold infinity in the palm of your hand, And eternity in an hour.从一粒沙子看到一个世界，从一朵野花看到一个天堂，把握在你手心里的就是无限，永恒也就消融于一个时辰。‖（摘自网络）

总之，翻译需要什么都懂，否则译出的东西要么让人如坠五里雾中，要么让人笑掉大牙，因此，译完之后，多次校对，是必不可少的步骤。

Raúl the pragmatist 实用主义者劳尔

Bold changes intended to preserve Cuban communism may herald the beginning of its end 旨在保护古巴共产主义的大胆变革反而有可能变成了掘墓人

Nov 11th 2010

SHORTLY after he took charge of Cuba from his ailing brother, Fidel, in 2006, Raúl Castro declared that his country‘s moribund communist economy needed to change.But his failure to make anything more than marginal adjustments disappointed hopes that he would follow Chinese and Vietnamese communist leaders in combining capitalist economics and growing social freedom with continued party control.劳尔.卡斯特罗2006年从他罹病的兄长—菲德尔卡.斯特罗手中接过了执掌古巴的大权，不久之后他宣称祖国的经济处于垂死边缘，亟需改变。但他最大的失败在于只进行不管痛痒的调整，这让人们的期望大大落空；大家原以为他可以效法中国和越南的共产党领导者，将资本主义经济及日益增长的社会自由性与党的持续控制有效的结合在一起。

Now, at last, Mr Castro is showing signs of boldness.Over the past few weeks he has launched some potentially far-reaching changes.By April 1st 500,000 Cubans will be laid off from their state jobs and encouraged to make their own living in small businesses.Over the next two or three years, another 800,000 are likely to join them.Eventually up to two Cubans in five will no longer work for the state.从现在的形式看来，卡斯特罗先生最终还是显现出了果敢的迹象。过去数周时间里，他推行了一些极其深远的变革举措。截至到4月1日，50万古巴民众丢掉了国家工作的铁饭碗，政府鼓励他们用小买卖自谋生路。未来2-3年的时间中，另外80万人也将加入下岗大军的队伍。最终将有五分之二的古巴人不会再为国家工作。

本周卡斯特罗先生召开了从4月底一直推迟到现在的共产党代表大会，会议的主旨是批准全新的经济模式歌；与此同时，政府已经释放了超过50名政治犯。在柏林墙倒塌20年后的今天，难道古巴共产主义最终还是难逃过时的命数？

Any answer must be hedged about with caveats.The economists advising Mr Castro are barred from talking of ―reform‖.In its guidelines for the party congress, the leadership declares that ―only socialism [ie, communism] is capable of overcoming our difficulties and preserving the gains of the revolution‖ and that in the new economy ―planning will be paramount, not the market.‖ No Cuban official has matched Deng Xiaoping‘s embrace of ―market socialism‖, let alone his(perhaps apocryphal)injunction that ―to get rich is glorious‖.The welcome release of prisoners seems merely to have been a move to deflect outside criticism after the death of one of them in a hunger strike, rather than a first step in dismantling the island‘s police state.Indeed the army is playing a bigger role in the economy and in government.任何答案都必须谨小慎微。给卡斯特罗先生提供咨询的经济学家们被禁止谈论改革。领导在会议纲领中指示―只有社会主义，暨共产主义才有能力克服当前的艰难困苦，并保持革命取得的胜利果实‖；同时还指出，在新经济模式中―占据最高地位的是计划，而不是市场‖。没有一个古巴官员可以达到邓小平的高度，领悟到―社会主义市场‖的真谛，更不必说他―致富最光荣‖的命令了（也许这是杜撰出来的）。在一名囚徒因绝食斗争送命后，深受欢迎的释放囚犯行为似乎只是为了转移外界的批判，而非迈出了废除本岛极权国家的第一步。实际上军界才是在经济和政府中更为重要的角色。

Yet Raúl‘s reforms go much further than Fidel‘s reluctant acceptance of foreign investment and limited self-employment after the collapse of the Soviet Union, partially reversed on the appearance of a new benefactor, Hugo Chávez‘s Venezuela.For the first time since the 1960s Cubans will be able to employ other Cubans(even though the constitution bans such ―exploitation‖).Many of the rules under which these new businesses will operate are still being drawn up.But it seems that Cubans will now be able to get loans and rent and buy property.Other changes are likely to follow.Mr Castro talks of gradually eliminating the free food rations that Cubans get, and moving towards targeted social assistance(as elsewhere in Latin America).The corollary is that wages will have to go up—and increasingly they will be set in the market.苏联解体后，菲德尔极不情愿的接纳了境外投资和有限的自由职业者；然而劳尔的改革比他的兄长深入很多，在委内瑞拉的大恩人查韦斯登台后，部分举措与从前大相径庭。从上世纪60年代至今，尽管宪法禁止这类―剥削‖，但古巴人首次可以对本国公民进行雇佣。很多对新型企业的生产经营进行规范的法规还正在规划中；但古巴人似乎已经可以获得贷款、出租房屋以及购买不动产。一些其他的变革也很有可能紧随其后。卡斯特罗提及逐渐取消古巴民众正在获得的免费的食物配给，而是同拉美其他地区一样，向着计划好的社会救济发展。必然出现的结果是工资不得不上调，并且日益受到市场的控制。

In all this Mr Castro is bowing to reality.He has been withering in his criticism of the featherbedding that has bankrupted the state.He has also refused to blame the American economic embargo for problems which he rightly says are self-inflicted.His pragmatism has finally won out against his brother‘s doctrinaire Utopianism.卡斯特罗在这些方面都屈从于现实：他对于导致国家破产的额外雇工进行了极尖刻的批判；同时也拒绝对美国采取贸易禁运所造成的问题进行批判，他认为这些问题都是自寻烦恼。在卡斯特罗兄弟的较量中，劳尔的使用主义最终战胜了菲德尔教条的乌托邦主义。

Apart from the economy, the other big task facing Mr Castro, who is 79(and Fidel 84), is to start handing over power to a younger generation.That may come after the party congress next year.In the meantime, his new boldness represents an opportunity for those who hope that Cuba will eventually join the rest of Latin America in accepting democracy and the market economy, for once the market‘s green shoots appear they tend to flourish.除了经济问题以外，现年79岁了劳尔（菲德尔已经84岁了）所面临的更艰巨的任务是开始着手将全力传递到年轻一代手中，不过这将是明年党代会以后的事情了。同时，对于那些希望古巴最终可以加入拉美其他国家的行列，接受民主和市场经济的人来说，他果敢的新政代表着希望；只要市场经济出现一抹新绿，必将是一派繁花似锦的景象。

How to help kill communism 怎样搭把手，灭了共产主义

Outsiders should take their lead from the common position that Europe adopted in 1996, which allows it to help in ―the progressive and irreversible opening of the Cuban economy‖ while predicating closer friendship on moves towards democracy.Offering training and credit—as Brazil has done—to Cuba‘s incipient private sector would be a good move.Rewarding Cuba for releasing prisoners who should never have been locked up in the first place—as Miguel Moratinos, Spain‘s recently sacked foreign minister, wanted—would not.局外人应该从1996年欧洲采用的共同立场中着手，旨在帮助―古巴进行先进且不可逆的经济改革‖，同时在走向民主的道路上还能建立日益深厚的友谊。象巴西一样给古巴的早期私营经济提供培训和信贷，不失为一个很好的尝试。如果象最近遭解雇的西班牙外长Miguel Moratinos,所希望的那样，古巴因为释放那些原本就不应该遭到逮捕的犯人而得到奖励，就不是一个好的尝试。

America‘s embargo remains as futile and counter-productive as ever.Although Barack Obama has commendably reversed George W.Bush‘s restrictions on visits and remittances by Cuban-Americans, Republican control of Congress will make it even less likely that the embargo will be dismantled.That‘s a great shame.The embargo has allowed the Castros to pose as proud Cuban nationalists standing up to a bullying hegemon and thus helped them cling to power.If change is at last under way it is despite the embargo, not because of it.美国的贸易禁运一如既往的无效甚至是达到了反效果。奥巴马已经很好的撤销了小布什针对古巴裔美国人实施的拜访及汇款禁令，但共和党掌舵的国会让接触贸易禁运的可能性变得更加渺茫；这将是非常大的遗憾。贸易禁运让卡斯特罗兄弟摆出一副古巴民族主义者的英雄形象，直面恃强凌弱的至高强权；他们更是借此紧握政权。如果说改变正在发生，那这些改变不是因贸易禁运而起，甚至无视它的存在。Lebanon and the region 黎巴嫩与中东地区

Can there be justice as well as stability? 既要正义也要稳定，可能吗？

As the UN prepares to announce indictments for a series of murders and assassinations, the mood in Lebanon is getting edgy

联合国准备宣布针对一系列谋杀案的起诉，黎巴嫩人的心情日渐紧张

Nov 11th 2010 | Cairo

IT IS the strangest of courtroom dramas.Distinguished judges and a prosecutor sit in a sleepy suburb of the Dutch capital, The Hague.The case has plenty of victims: 61 people, including Lebanon‘s then prime minister, Rafik Hariri, were murdered and 494 injured in a spree of bombings and assassinations that racked Lebanon from 2004 to 2008.But though the UN-sponsored Special Tribunal for Lebanon has yet to convene or to charge anyone for the crimes, the impending trial threatens not only to reignite a firestorm in Lebanon, but also to spread sectarian tensions across the Middle East and to vex relations even more between the region‘s big adversaries, Iran and the United States.If Lebanon were to blow up again, Israel and Syria could well step in once more, turning the current Middle East peace process into a slide back towards war.这是一部最为怪诞的法庭剧。尊贵的法官大人们与检察官坐在荷兰首都海牙郊外昏昏欲睡。此案受害者甚多：从2004至2008年间发生了一系列疯狂的爆炸和暗杀事件，包括黎巴嫩前总理拉菲克?哈里里（Rafik Hariri）在内共有61人被害，494人受伤。这些事件使黎巴嫩陷入痛苦之中。尽管联合国成立了黎巴嫩问题特别法庭，但尚未开庭或指控任何人对上述罪行负责。即将到来的开庭审判不仅可能引燃黎巴嫩国内的火药桶，而且还可能将教派冲突扩散到整个中东地区，对本地区最大的一对冤家——伊朗和美国的关系火上浇油。如果黎巴嫩内战再次爆发，以色列和叙利亚也很有可能再次介入，如此将导致目前的中东和平进程发生逆行，滑向另一场中东战争。

Few foresaw this when the UN Security Council ordered an investigation into the car-bombing of February 2005 in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, when Mr Hariri, a billionaire Sunni who was seeking his sixth turn at running the government, was assassinated along with 22 others.That sparked a furious popular backlash, prompting the exit of Syrian troops who had lingered, increasingly unwanted, to enforce peace after Lebanon‘s civil war of 1975-90.Then followed the electoral triumph of Mr Hariri‘s pro-Western coalition, known as the March 14th alliance, after the date of a big anti-Syrian demonstration.Many Lebanese, as well as the UN‘s first investigating team, assumed that Syria had arranged Mr Hariri‘s murder, and expected the case‘s swift resolution.2005年2月在黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特发生了一起汽车炸弹爆炸事件，当时伊斯兰逊尼派的亿万富翁哈里里正在寻求第六次就任黎巴嫩总理一职，在这起暗杀中哈里里与其他22人一同遇难。当联合国安理会下令对这起事件进行调查时，没有任何人预见到其后果会如何。这一事件引发了公众愤怒的反应，促使了叙利亚的撤军行动。黎巴嫩于1975至1990年间爆发了内战，叙利亚随后派出了这支维和部队，这支部队尽管愈来愈不受欢迎，但之前一直赖着不走。接着，在随后进行的一场大规模反叙利亚示威游行后，哈里里的亲西方盟友，所谓的―3?14联盟‖获得了选战的胜利。许多黎巴嫩人以及联合国派出调查此案的第一个调查团都认为是叙利亚策划了哈里里的谋杀案，并预期此案能够得到迅速解决。

It was not to be.Over the next three years sporadic bombings and shootings targeted prominent backers of the March 14th alliance, Christian areas, and Lebanese officers involved in the investigation.Even as the investigators‘ brief widened to include these later attacks, their credibility fell when it emerged that key witnesses implicating Syria had apparently made up their testimony.但这是不可能的。在随后的三年内又陆续出现了几起针对―3?14联盟‖支持者中有影响力的人士、基督教派系人士及参与调查此案的黎巴嫩官员的爆炸和枪击事件。正当调查人员们将调查范围扩大到后来的这些袭击事件时，人们对调查小组的信任却下降了。因为此时关键证人暗示叙利亚显然是编造了证词。

Meanwhile, March 14th‘s pro-Syrian adversaries, led by Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia party-cum-militia which emerged strengthened from a war with Israel in July 2006, mounted a tenacious and effective campaign to challenge the pro-Western faction.This culminated in an invasion of central Beirut in May 2008 by Hizbullah gunmen that forced March 14th to accept a power-sharing deal.Hizbullah and its allies thereby secured a veto over government decisions but at the cost of deepening the bitter schism that now largely pits Lebanon‘s Sunnis and Shias, each with nearly one-third of the population, against each other, and splits the third who are Christian into sparring factions backing one side or another.此时，―3?14联盟‖的对手，由真主党领导的亲叙利亚的黎巴嫩什叶派政党暨民兵组织通过2006年7月与以色列的一场战争而强大起来，他们展开了一场挑战亲西方派别的顽强而有效的运动。这场夺权运动的高潮出现在2008年5月，真主党武装人员闯入贝鲁特市中心，用武力迫使―3?14联盟‖接受一项权力分享协议。真主党及其盟友从而获得了对政府所作决定的否决权，但其代价是加深了教派的分裂，使黎巴嫩的逊尼派和什叶派间的深沟难以与逾越。这两个派系各占有黎巴嫩近1/3的人口，双方水火不相容，并使黎巴嫩另1/3信仰基督教的人口也分裂成两派，他们支持伊斯兰派系的一方或另一方，争吵不休。

Since then, as the tribunal‘s work has dragged on, many Lebanese have grown weary of the whole process.Lately, this weariness has turned to alarm.The court is expected to issue an indictment soon.Leaks strongly suggest it will not accuse Syria but rather senior officers of Hizbullah itself.The implications of such a charge are explosive.The party has long exalted its role as a heroic protector of Lebanon, justifying its impressive arsenal on the grounds, however implausible to outsiders, that its weapons are trained solely on Israeli invaders and not fellow Lebanese.自那以后，随着特别法庭的开庭审判一拖再拖，许多黎巴嫩人已经对整个过程感到了厌倦。最近，这种厌倦的情绪变得让人吃惊。预计该法庭很快就会签发一项起诉书。据透漏出的消息，这份起诉书很可能不会指控叙利亚，而将指控真主党高级官员为暗杀事件的主谋。这样一份起诉书将产生爆炸性的后果。真主党长期以来一直自封为的黎巴嫩英勇的保护者，将之作为维持其庞大武装的冠冕堂皇的理由，但外人难以相信其枪口只是对准以色列侵略者而不是黎巴嫩同胞的说法。

Along with Hizbullah‘s devoted followers, many non-Shias readily accept such arguments.But should Hizbullah be proven to have mounted a systematic campaign of extermination against Sunni Muslim and Christian political opponents in Lebanon, the party‘s reputation would be severely damaged, along with that of its main backer, Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, made a recent festively triumphant visit to Lebanon.与真主党的忠实追随者一道，许多非什叶派黎巴嫩人也准备接受这种说法。真主党策划了针对黎巴嫩逊尼派穆斯林及基督教政治对手的系统消灭行动一旦获得证实，该党连同其主要后台——伊朗的声望都将受到严重损害。伊朗总统内贾德最近刚刚结束了黎巴嫩节日一般喜气洋洋的访问。

Mr Hariri‘s son Saad, who now leads March 14th as Lebanon‘s prime minister, has quietly reassured Hizbullah that he would publicly insist that any of its members implicated in the killings would be considered merely rogue actors.Conveniently also, the man most widely believed to have orchestrated the killings is dead.Imad Mughniyeh, well known since being implicated in bombings and hostage-takings during Lebanon‘s civil war, headed Hizbullah‘s special operations forces, and was a key link to Iran‘s Revolutionary Guard before his unexplained assassination in Damascus in February 2008.Curiously, the killings in Lebanon stopped abruptly at the same time.哈里里的儿子萨阿德现在是―3?14联盟‖的领导人，也是黎巴嫩现任总理，他私下向真主党保证他将公开坚持其观点，即任何与这起暗杀事件有牵连的真主党成员都将被视为仅仅是制造了一起无赖行为。更便当的是，人们普遍认为是精心策划了这起暗杀事件的人已经死了。伊迈德?穆尼耶（Imad Mughniyeh）是真主党特种作战部队的首脑，也是真主党同伊朗革命卫队保持联系的一个关键人物，他以黎巴嫩内战期间制造了一系列爆炸和劫持人质事件而臭名昭著，2008年2月他在发生在大马士革的一场难以解释的暗杀中身亡。令人奇怪的是，同一时间内黎巴嫩的暗杀事件突然停止了。

But Hizbullah, apparently confident in its strength, rejects any suggestion of its involvement.Instead, its leaders have attacked the tribunal with growing vigour, accusing it of being an American tool and of ignoring purported evidence of Israel‘s hand in the killings.In Beirut last month party loyalists posing as a pack of angry veiled women scratched, punched and bit members of a team from the UN investigation in southern Beirut.Hizbullah leaders followed this staged provocation with denunciations of the UN‘s supposed affront to the virtue of Lebanese womanhood, declaring that henceforth any co-operation with the tribunal would be equated to collaboration with the ―Zionist enemy‖.真主党显然是对自身实力信心满满，拒绝接受任何它参与了谋杀的指控。相反，其领导人攻击特别法庭的调门不断升高，指责该法庭为美国的工具，对传说中以色列制造了这起谋杀的证据不予采信。上个月在贝鲁特，一群真主党的支持者扮成蒙着面纱的愤怒妇女，对来自贝鲁特南部的联合国调查人员是又挠又咬又打。真主党领导人在这起挑衅事件后谴责联合国调查人员冒犯了黎巴嫩妇女的高贵操守，声称今后任何与特别法庭的合作行为都将被视为与―犹太复国主义敌人‖同流合污。

The party‘s allies have made a noisy issue of the initial false testimony cited by investigators and long since discarded, in an effort to discredit the entire judicial process.More ominously, voices sympathetic to Hizbullah whisper that its militia, widely seen as far tougher than Lebanon‘s ill-equipped conscript army, is ready to take swift control of ports, borders and main cities.Such a move might well provoke Israeli generals, whose itch to tame the Shia party is as intense as it was when they launched their fierce but inconclusive war in 2006, after a spat between Hizbullah and an Israeli border patrol.真主党的盟友们抓住调查人员最初采信了伪证的问题小题大做，闹得沸沸扬扬。其实这个伪证被废弃已久，他们这样做的目的无非是千方百计想抹黑整个司法调查过程。更严重的是，真主党的同情者们透漏说，真主党民兵武装正在准备采取行动以迅速控制黎巴嫩的港口、边境和主要城市。真主党民兵武装的实力远远超过黎巴嫩装备低劣的正规军，这已经成了人们的普遍看法。此举很可能会激怒以色列的将军们，他们对驯服什叶派武装的冲动与发动2006年那场战争时同样强烈。那场战争的起因是真主党武装与以色列边境巡逻队间出现的摩擦。战争的过程非常惨烈，但无果而终。

In Lebanon‘s polarised landscape Hizbullah‘s large core of loyalists is unlikely to be shaken, even by firm evidence of the party‘s involvement in the killing of Mr Hariri and others.Some of its allies, however, especially in the Christian camp, may prove less immune to repulsion.For such a small country, even one with such a violent past, 555 dead and wounded is a big number.Lebanese nerves are jangling.在黎巴嫩泾渭分明的政治版图中，即使有明确的证据证实真主党卷入了暗杀哈里里和其他人的行动，真主党的大批核心支持者也不太可能出现动摇。然而真主党的一些盟友，尤其是基督教派营垒中的盟友，也许会因此而出现离心的倾向。对于黎巴嫩这样一个小国，即使过去暴力事件不断，555人的死伤也绝对不是一个小数目。这件事正在刺激着黎巴嫩人的神经。

Pros clicking at war An American firm wants to turn computer games into a global spectator sport

电脑游戏

职业选手的鼠标大战

一家美国公司试图将电脑游戏变成世界级的观赏性体育项目

Oct 28th 2010

Arriving for a big e-sports match参加电竞大赛

THE first round is over and 32 of the world‘s best professional computer-game players are through to the next stage of the Global Starcraft 2 League being played in Seoul, South Korea.Over the next two weeks the players, including the reigning champion, Kim Won-ki(better known by his online moniker ―FruitDealer‖), will marshal their armies, ponder their strategies and crush their foes.The finalists will play in front of an audience of thousands(and hundreds of thousands more online)for an $87,000 first prize and the respect due the best Starcraft 2 player on the planet.第一轮比赛硝烟落定，世界上最优秀的32名职业电脑游戏选手登上了新的舞台，参加在韩国首尔举行的星际争霸2世界联赛。卫冕冠军金宏基（大家更熟悉他在线上使用的ID―水果贩子‖）也在这批选手当中。在接下来的两周时间里，他们将运筹帷幄，挥师征战，直指敌酋。进入决赛的选手将在数千名观众（以及数以十万计的在线观众）面前争夺8.7万美元的奖金，以及全世界最好的星际2选手这一头衔。

This is e-sports, or professional computer-gaming, at its highest level.Just like football or baseball, computer games can be played competitively and in front of paying spectators.South Korea, where the original Starcraft game was released in 1998, is the spiritual home of e-sports.这就是电子竞技（或者说职业化电脑游戏）的最高盛会。像足球和棒球一样，电脑游戏也成了一项具有竞赛性质的运动，可以吸引付费的观众。1998年，星际争霸在韩国首发，从那之后，韩国成了电子竞技精神上的故乡。

South Korean fans watch games broadcast on cable television and the players are celebrities.Teams flush with sponsorship money pay stars salaries on top of their prize money.(One player, Lee Yoon-Yeol, aka ―Nada‖, is rumoured to earn around $200,000 a year;a journeyman player might make $20,000).Now Activision Blizzard, the California-based company that developed the Starcraft games, is keen to spread the popularity of e-sports in the West.韩国的电竞爱好者通过有线电视观看比赛，电竞选手也都成了名人。战队通过赞助商筹集资金，再按照获得的奖金为明星玩家发薪水。据称，绰号Nada的选手李云龙每年大约能赚20万美元，而一位新人选手也差不多能拿2万美元左右。星际争霸的开发者，总部位于加州的动视-暴雪公司正致力于在西方提升电子竞争的流行度。

Will it work? Professional computer-gaming in the West has been around for several years, with outfits like the Electronic Sports League in Europe and Major League Gaming in America.But it has never taken off to the extent that it has in South Korea.Activision Blizzard thinks that will change as faster broadband makes it easier to broadcast games over the internet.The company designed Starcraft 2 with spectators in mind and has flown famous Korean players to America to play an exhibition match.GomTV, the Korean firm that runs the league, is providing English commentary on games and it has opened the tournament to any non-Korean player that can manage to qualify.这种努力是否能够获得成果？职业电子竞争在西方也已经开展了不少年头了，在欧洲有电子体育联赛（ESL），美国则有游戏大联盟（MLG），然而其发展程度始终没有达到韩国的水平。动视-暴雪认为，随着宽频网络的发展，在网络上转播比赛会变得更加容易，这种局面也会随之改变。在星际争霸2的设计中，公司始终以竞技性为核心理念，还邀请韩国选手到美国打了一场表演赛。韩国方面负责运营这次表演赛的GomTV公司提供了英文解说，并表示支持所有非韩国选手参加预选赛。

Advertisers are attracted by the ability of e-sports to target an audience with plenty of spending money;Sony Ericsson is sponsoring the tournament in Seoul.The average American gamer is in his 30s and well-educated.With sponsorship comes the money necessary to attract players to pursue computer gaming as a career, says Sean Plott(better known as ―Day[9]‖), an American player-turned-commentator.Intel recently sponsored a European tournament with a $15,000 prize pool.Perhaps the biggest obstacle to exporting e-sports to the West is a lingering belief that playing computer games is not a proper job—an idea that would no doubt sound familiar to pioneers of professional sports from tennis to snooker.由于电子竞技面向的观众具有相当的消费能力，广告商也非常感兴趣。索尼-爱丽信赞助了在首尔举行的比赛。美国的游戏玩家平均年龄都在30岁以上，且受过良好的教育。Sean Plott（即著名选手Day[9]）曾经是一名电竞选手，现在改行做了解说员。他表示随着赞助商的加入，电子竞技会有更多的资金来源，也会鼓励电脑游戏的玩家将电子竞技作为自己的职业。因特尔最近就为一项欧洲电竞赛事提供了15000美元赞助作为资金。也许将电子竞技引入西方国家的最大障碍，是人们仍然认为玩电脑游戏并不能算一份真正的工作。这种想法听起来并不陌生，在网球和斯诺克这些职业体育的发展过程中，其行业先锋无疑也听到过类似的声音。

Silver lining 银光闪闪

Gold's poor relation is on a winning streak 黄金的穷二弟阔起来了 Sep 30th 2010

AT THE first Olympic games of the modern era in 1896, winners were awarded silver medals.Since then the metal has had to get used to second-class status.But for some time now silver prices have been outpacing those of gold(see chart), its flashier neighbour on the periodic table.On September 29th silver exceeded $22 an ounce, a price not seen since 1980 when the Hunt brothers, a pair of Texan oil barons, unwisely attempted to corner the market.Then silver spiked as high as $50 an ounce before the strategy unravelled, sending the price crashing and the Hunts back to the oil business.在1896年第一届现代奥运会上，冠军获得的奖牌是银质的。从那以后，白银便沦为了老二的象征。不过，近来银价上扬之速已超过黄金（见图，银价一直压着它在元素周期表上的光鲜邻居一头）。9月29日，银价突破22美元/盎司。上一次白银达到如此高度还要追溯到1980年，当时德州石油大亨亨特兄弟（Hunt brothers）妄图操纵银市，使银价一度站上了50美元/盎司。接着，他们的如意算盘破产，银价随之崩盘，兄弟俩只能回去继续做石油生意。

The explanation for the steady rise of silver this time round is less dramatic.But high prices have a better chance of enduring.For investors, silver and gold have much of the same allure.The combination of a weak dollar, low interest rates and economic uncertainty that has convinced some to buy gold and pushed its price up to around $1,300 an ounce has also encouraged them to put their money into other likely-looking stores of value.Silver not only offers investors diversity but it is also supported by real industrial demand.此次银价稳步上升背后的就没有如此精彩的故事了。但此次银价高企可能会持续更长时间。对投资者而言，白银与黄金吸引力相当。弱势美元、低利率以及经济不确定性促使人们大笔购入黄金，将金价推上1300美元/盎司；也促使他们把钱投向与黄金相似的价值储藏物。白银不但可以为投资者提供多元化之选，而且其价格还受到真实产业需求的支持。

Whereas around 25-30% of gold is bought by investors, only about a tenth of global silver production goes the same way.Roughly half the world‘s silver goes to industrial users(the balance is accounted for by jewellery and other silverware), although their identity has undergone a huge shift over the past decade.大约25~30%的黄金是由投资者购买的，而白银的这一比例只有大约10%。大约有一半的白银被用于工业用途（其余则被制成首饰和银器），不过数十年来用途不尽相同。

Old-fashioned film for cameras required mountains of silver.According to Merrill Lynch, an investment bank, photographic demand for silver has fallen by more than 60% in the past decade.Even in 2004, when the popularity of digital cameras was already well established, the photographic industry consumed 5,600 tonnes of silver, a fifth of total production.That compares with just 9% in 2009.老式胶片需要大量使用白银。据投资银行美林公司的数据，过去十年摄影业的白银需求量下降了六成以上。在2004年数码相机已开始流行时，摄影业年白银消费量仍高达5 600吨，相当于产量的二成。到2009年已下降到9%。

New uses for the metal plugged the gap left by film.Silver is widely used in electronics, whether in buttons for TVs, in membrane switches in computer keyboards or as a coating for CDs and DVDs.But the great hope for silver is the solar-power industry.Photovoltaic cells, the technology used in 70% of solar panels, contain silver.Although other technologies that do not use silver are on the rise, heavy government subsidies are forecast to help keep the solar industry growing.新用途填补了胶片需求萎缩留下的空白。白银被广泛用于电子器件，包括电视按钮、计算机键盘薄膜开关以及CD和DVD碟片涂层。但白银的未来需求主要存在于太阳能产业。70%的太阳能面板使用含银的光伏电池。尽管不使用白银的技术正在不断发展，但政府的大幅补贴预计仍将助太阳能产业蓬勃发展。

Demand for silver is likely to keep rising in developing countries in particular: China, which used to export the metal, now imports it.The same cannot be said for supply.As Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank points out, three-quarters of the world‘s supply comes as a by-product from copper, lead and zinc mines.So ramping up production is difficult.Total supplies of the metal in 2009, at 27,650 tonnes, were barely higher than in 2004.Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal.发展中国家对白银的需求可能持续上升。特别是中国，已由白银出口国变为进口国。供给方的情形则非如此。德意志银行的迈克尔?刘易斯（Michael Lewis）指出，白银供给中有75%是铜、铅和锌矿开采过程中的副产品。因此大举增加产量并不容易。2009年，白银总供给量为27 650吨，只比2004年略高。或许未来运动员拿块银牌回家也不会感到多沮丧了。

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Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal.或许未来运动员拿块银牌回家也会感到多沮丧了。

翻译反了吧！

Ambac's fall Ambac倒闭

And then there was one 已成过去

The bond-insurance industry struggles for survival

债券保险业挣扎求存

Nov 4th 2010

AMERICA‘S municipal-bond market is worth around $2.8 trillion.But ―monoline‖ insurers, which insure municipal bonds issued by American cities and counties, are barely breathing.On November 1st the industry edged closer to extinction when one of the largest bond insurers, Ambac, announced that it would skip an interest payment.The company could file for bankruptcy by the end of the month.美国的市政债券市场市值约为2.8万亿。但为美国市县所发市政债券提供保险的单一险种保险公司只能苟延残喘。11月1日，当最大的债券保险公司之一Ambac宣布停付一期利息时，这个行业离灰飞烟灭又近了一点。该公司月底前可能申请破产。

It didn‘t need an oracle to predict Ambac‘s demise.Earlier this year a state regulator siphoned off some of Ambac‘s most toxic assets and put them into ―rehabilitation‖.Ambac has over $1.6 billion in debt, but only $76m in cash and short-term securities.One of its most coveted assets is its $7 billion ―net operating loss tax carry forward‖, which could translate into $2.5 billion in tax savings if it ever manages to turn a profit.Rob Haines of CreditSights, a research firm, does not think it will: ―Ambac is a dying company with a finite life.‖

预测Ambac的破产并非难事。今年早些时候，一家州监管机构抽取Ambac的一些最为不良的资产，将它们投入―改造‖。Ambac欠下超过16亿美元的债务，但只有7.6千万的现金和短期证券。该公司最遭人觊觎的资产之一是其70亿美元的―净营业损失免税金额‖，如果该公司有机会盈利，该免税金额可转换成25亿美元的节税金额。CreditSights研究公司的罗布?海恩斯（Rob Haines）认为Ambac不会盈利：―Ambac时日无多了。‖

The prospects for other monoline insurers look equally bleak.The industry got going in the 1970s and at first provided insurance only for municipal-bond issuers, which rarely defaulted.Over the past decade, however, the industry has branched out into structured products, such as risky mortgage-backed securities and collateralised-debt obligations.Big mistake.When subprime mortgages soured, bond insurers such as Ambac and MBIA, another embattled monoline, were on the hook to pay up.Their credit ratings dropped, which meant issuers were less willing to buy insurance from them.其他单一险种保险公司的前景看来一样惨淡。这个行业始于20世纪70年代，起出只为很少违约的市政债券发行人提供保险。但过去十年，这个行业涉足结构化产品，如高风险的按揭贷款支持证券和抵押债务债券。大错特错。当次级房贷恶化时，Ambac和MBIA（另一家处境艰难的单一险种保险公司）等债券保险公司拖延偿还欠款。它们的信用等级下降，意味着发行人更不愿意向它们买保险。

In 2005 bond insurers covered around 57% of new bond issuance, but now they cover a mere 7% or so.Only one monoline remains active: Assured Guaranty, which sat out most of the structured stampede.All its pre-crisis peers are either being restructured, face litigation or are out of business.Even Warren Buffett, who entered the bond-insurance market in 2008, has pulled back.―We‘re like an only child,‖ says Dominic Frederico, the boss of Assured Guaranty.―We don‘t have anybody to play with but all the toys are ours.‖ Still, life isn‘t all fun and games.Standard & Poor‘s, a ratings agency, last month stripped the firm of its AAA rating.2005年，债券保险公司覆盖了大约57%的新债券保险，但现在它们仅覆盖大约7%。只有一家单一险种保险公司仍有活力：对结构化浪潮浅尝辄止的Assured Guaranty。它在危机之前的所有同行要么正在重组，要么面临诉讼，要么破产。即使是2008年进入债券保险市场的沃伦?巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也撤出。―我们就像独生子，‖ Assured Guaranty的老板多米尼克?弗雷德里克（Dominic Frederico）说，―我们没有玩伴，但所有玩具都是我们的。‖然而，生活并非只有欢乐与游戏。评级机构标准普尔上月剥夺了该企业的AAA等级。

Some still believe there is hope for the industry.The National League of Cities, a non-profit organisation, thinks there should be a mutual insurance company owned and operated by local governments.But monolines will have to embrace a new model to succeed.Stanislas Rouyer of Moody‘s, another ratings agency, says monolines need to emphasise that they provide not just insurance but also monitoring and surveillance capabilities.This would enable them to sell their wares directly to retail investors, who account for 36% of the buyer base for municipal bonds.一些人仍然认为这个行业还有希望。非营利组织全国城市联盟（National League of Cities）认为应有一家由地方政府拥有和运营的互助保险公司。但单一险种保险公司将不得不采用新模式以求成功。另一家评级机构穆迪公司（Moody‘s）的斯丹尼斯拉斯?劳耶尔（Stanislas Rouyer）表示单一险种保险公司需要强调它们不仅提供保险，而且具备监控和监督的能力。这样做将使它们能够直接向占市政债券买家基数36%的散户销售产品。

There are other hurdles to jump first.The shaky finances of some municipalities could put what‘s left of the industry to another huge test.Fragile issuers and nervous investors ought to be a boon to insurers.But mass defaults by cities and counties could be the final blow for Assured Guaranty and its zombie peers.还有其他障碍尚需先行跨越。一些市政府不稳固的财务状况可能使这个行业剩下的公司面临另一个巨大的考验。脆弱的发行人和紧张的投资者应该对保险公司有所裨益。但市县大量违约可能成为Assured Guaranty及其毫无活力的同行的致命一击。

Finance and Economics 财经 Oracle v SAP Oracle对阵SAP

Maintaining fees 捍卫维护费

A lawsuit against SAP is about more than illegal downloads 针对SAP的讼案不仅仅与非法下载有关

Nov 4th 2010

SOMETIMES a tackle says much about a match and even the entire season.This is the case with a trial that opened on November 1st, pitting the world‘s two biggest makers of corporate software, Oracle and SAP, against each other.The dispute goes back to SAP‘s purchase in 2005 of TomorrowNow, which provided maintenance services for some of Oracle‘s software.Its aim was to poach customers.But in 2007 Oracle sued SAP, alleging that TomorrowNow had made illegal downloads from its website.有时，一次阻截抢断就足以说明一场球赛甚或整个赛季。11月1日开庭、挑起全球最大两家企业软件商Oracle与SAP相互火拼的讼案，就属于这种情况。这场争论要追溯至2005年SAP收购TomorrowNow一事，后者为某些Oracle软件提供维护服务，意在挖走顾客。不过2007年Oracle起诉SAP，声称TomorrowNow从其网站非法下载。

SAP has since admitted that TomorrowNow had done wrong and closed it down.It will not even contest allegations that it was aware of the copyright infringement and has reportedly agreed to pay $120m in legal fees to Oracle.This essentially leaves only two questions open: the damages—SAP thinks $40m is enough;Oracle wants about $2 billion—and whether Léo Apotheker, SAP‘s former boss and now head of Hewlett-Packard(HP), will appear in court.SAP自那时起就承认TomorrowNow行为失当，并关闭了该公司。而面对Oracle指控自个对版权侵害心知肚明一说，SAP甚至不会辩解。并且，据说其同意向Oracle支付1.2亿美元的诉讼费。这实质上只留下了两个问题悬而未决。一是Oracle的损失，SAP认为4000万美元足够了，而Oracle想要约20亿美元；二是Léo Apotheker这位SAP前老板、HP现领袖，是否会出庭。

As a result, it will be up to another trial to answer the underlying question: what are the rules for third-party maintenance? In January Oracle sued another maintenance firm, Rimini Street.It has since countersued, accusing Oracle of anticompetitive behaviour.因此，SAP将面临另一场讯问，要回答如下问题：第三方维护的规则是什么？今年1月，Oracle起诉了另一家软件维护公司Rimini Street。该公司那时就提起反诉，指控Oracle的反竞争行为。

The issue is the same as with independent car-repair shops: what access to the intellectual property of the original vendor should they have? If the court favours Rimini Street and others, their business could take off.A growing number of firms are thinking about defecting from Oracle and SAP, even though they would no longer get regular updates.They are happy with their existing applications and could cut their maintenance costs in half.这个问题跟独立汽修店面临的问题是一样的：这些店铺应通过何种途径获得创始者的知识产权？若法庭站到Rimini Street及其他企业一边，这些企业就将蓬勃发展。越来越多企业正考虑背弃Oracle与SAP，即便不再获得定期升级。它们满意现有应用，可能会削减一半维护费。

If many customers jump ship, this would weigh heavily on the results of Oracle and SAP.Maintenance fees, usually 22% of a program‘s price per year, have become a bigger part of firms‘ technology budgets and of software vendors‘ income.For both firms, maintenance generates twice as much revenue as software sales—and all of the profits.若众多用户掉头离去，将会极大影响Oracle跟SAP的业绩。维护费通常占一个程序年费的22%，已成为企业科研预算及软件销售收入的大部分来源。对Oracle与SAP两家公司而言，维护费是软件销售收入的两倍，也是全部利润。

Yet if the TomorrowNow trial has attracted so much attention, it is also because of a new epic rivalry in the industry.It started when Oracle bought Sun Microsystems last year, becoming a direct rival to HP.Things got worse in September when Oracle hired HP‘s ex-boss, Mark Hurd, who had been pushed out the previous month.The relationship became downright hostile when HP then appointed Mr Apotheker as successor and installed as chairman, of all people, Ray Lane, who left Oracle in 2000 after falling out with its flamboyant boss, Larry Ellison.然而，倘若TomorrowNow一案吸引了如此多关注，也是因为该行业产生了新一轮重大对抗。这种对抗始于去年Oracle收购Sun Microsystems时，这场收购变成了一场直接针对HP的竞争。今年9月，情况变糟了，当时Oracle雇佣了HP前老板Mark Hurd，而他上个月刚被HP炒了鱿鱼。HP接着任命Apotheker先生充当继任者，安排Ray Lane担任董事长，而偏偏就是此人2000年与Oracle趾高气扬的老板Larry Ellison大吵一场后，离开了Oracle。因而此时，两家公司间的关系变得彻头彻尾充满敌意。

Mr Ellison, who has shown restraint in recent years, has since rediscovered his previous more belligerent form.He compared HP‘s board to ―idiots‖ when they forced Mr Hurd out.He spoke of ―madness‖ after Mr Apotheker‘s appointment.Later he accused HP‘s new boss, who started his new job on the first day of the trial, of having ―overseen an industrial-espionage scheme‖.Ellison先生最近几年表现克制，但从那时起，他又找回了从前更好斗的模样。当HP董事会逼迫Hurd先生离开时，他将其比作―白痴‖。在HP任命Apotheker先生后，他说这是―蠢事‖。后来，他指责HP新老板（此案开庭首日他走马上任）正―监管一项工业间谍活动计划‖。

All this has entertainment value.And it may impress Wall Street.But it is unlikely to make firms buy more of Oracle‘s products.Nor will it do anything to counter the growing anger among customers of Oracle(and of SAP, for that matter)over how much they pay in maintenance fees, with so little in return.这一切充满了娱乐价值，并会让华尔街印象深刻，却不大可能让企业购买更多的Oracle产品。而Oracle用户（就此事而言，SAP的用户同样）日益愤怒：他们付出了这么多维护费，回报却如此之少。要平息他们的怒气，这一切也毫无用处。

Transparency International 透明国际 Murk meter 阴暗量表

The best-known corruption index may have run its course 最著名的腐败指数或许已走到尽头。

Oct 28th 2010 | BERLIN

CORRUPTION takes many forms;in some countries it is blatant, in others it is barely visible.So the idea that it can quantified on a simple scale is appealing;it gives the impression that an elusive aspect of behaviour can be pinned down.腐败形式五花八门：它在某些国家明目张胆地存在，而在其他国家则几乎深藏不露。因此，以一个简单的尺度对其加以量化的想法颇具吸引力。这给人留下一种印象：一种难以捉摸的行为也可被清晰界定。

No wonder, then, that the annual corruption perceptions index(CPI), which orders countries according to the perceived degree of graft, is closely watched.But when its compilers—Transparency International(TI), an organisation based in Berlin—released their 16th annual ranking on October 26th, there was criticism as well as curiosity.于是，也难怪按被察觉到的贪腐程度对国家进行排序的年度腐败认知指数(CPI)会受到密切关注了。不过当其编纂者（位于柏林的透明国际组织）在10月26日发布第16份年度排名时，既引发了好奇，也招至了批评。

To be sure, TI has done a lot for the anti-corruption cause.The group has had an ―enormous impact‖, says Richard Boucher, a deputy secretary-general at the OECD, a rich-country club.The CPI was the first index comparing corruption globally.透明国际无疑已为反腐事业做出许多努力。富裕国家俱乐部——经合组织的副秘书长理查德?鲍彻(Richard Boucher)称透明国际已拥有 ―巨大的影响力‖。腐败认知指数是第一个在全球层面上对腐败程度进行比较的指数。

But it has always been controversial.As might be expected, early complaints came from poor places which felt they were being singled out by an organisation that reflected the ethos of wealthy countries.不过这一指数始终存有争议。正如你可能预料的那样，早期的抱怨来自于贫困地区，这些地区感到自己受到了一个反映富裕国家精神特质的组织的区别对待。

Now there are more subtle critiques, too.Some people take issue, for example, with the methodology based on 13 surveys of experts and business people.Its precise working varies from country to country, and it has changed over time—so that year-on-year comparisons can be misleading.如今也出现了更为精巧的批评。例如，某些人士反对指数的计算方法，该方法以13项针对专家和商务人士的调查为基础。在不同国家，这种方法的准确运作会有差异，而且它也会随时间变化而变化，因此同比结果可能具有误导性。

The CPI highlights the general level of corruption, but offers little clue about which aspects are most serious, or how to fight it.Frustration has grown with the idea that ―a single number for a whole country is enough‖, says Nathaniel Heller of Global Integrity, an anti-corruption outfit.腐败认知指数强调了腐败的整体水平，但却没有为哪些领域腐败最盛或应如何打击腐败提供多少信息。反腐败组织——环球廉正(Global Integrity)的纳撒尼尔?海勒(Nathaniel Heller)表示，对于那种认为―就整个国家而言，一个数据便足够了‖的想法，人们已产生受挫感。

The CPI ―has more than run its course‖, in the view of Claudio Weber Abramo, director of Transparência Brasil, a former chapter that left the TI umbrella in 2007.在透明巴西(Transparência Brasil)主席克劳迪奥?韦伯?阿布拉莫(Claudio Weber Abramo)看来，腐败认知指数―已经过时‖。该组织曾是透明国际组织网中的一个分支，但已于2007年退出。

TI is aware of the index‘s shortcomings.The CPI, it says, is ―an annual snapshot‖ with ―less of a focus on year-on-year trends‖.Yet the group stands by its ranking.―We are comfortable we have an important tool—but it is only one tool‖, says Huguette Labelle, TI‘s chair.透明国际明白指数所存有的缺陷。该组织指出，腐败认知指数是一种―较少聚焦于同比趋势‖的―年度快照‖。不过该组织仍支持自己的排序。透明国际主席胡吉特?拉贝勒(Huguette Labelle)表示：―我们为自己拥有一种重要工具而感到安心——不过这只是一种工具‖。

TI is far from a one-trick pony.It now focuses on boosting international accords and helping enforce them.At the local level, it also does much more than in the past.In some developing countries, legal advice centres help victims of corruption.Still, the CPI looms large, and the organisation faces a dilemma.The index gets a much-needed attention, but it overshadows other activities and exposes it to criticism.If TI had the courage to ditch its score-card, or at least publish it in a less misleading form, its other work might fare better.透明国际远非黔驴技穷之辈。目前，该组织正在关注推动国际协议并助其实施。而在地区层面上，该组织的所作所为也比以往多上许多。在一些发展中国家，法律咨询中心向腐败受害者伸出援手。不过，腐败认知指数影响巨大，透明国际正面临着两难局面。这一指数既赢得了其所急需的关注，却又盖住了其他活动的风头，并将自己推至风口浪尖。如果透明国际有勇气抛弃这块记分牌，或者至少是以一种误导性较小的方式加以发布的话，该组织其他工作的进展或许就将更加顺利。

Broadband in America 美国宽带业

Come sooner, future 快来吧，未来

Verizon has paid dearly to build a fast network.Now it needs customers Verizon公司付出了高昂代价建设高速网络。现在，它亟需用户

Oct 28th 2010

VERIZON can get shirty about the word ―fibre‖.America‘s second-biggest telecoms operator successfully complained to the Better Business Bureau that competitors had touted ―fibre-optic fast‖ to consumers, even though their broadband networks did not run fibre all the way to the home, as Verizon does.This is not just a techies‘ argument.By an order of magnitude, an all-fibre network is the fastest way to move information from one place to another on the internet and Verizon has the largest such network in America.The difficult bit is making money from it.Verizon可能生―纤‖字的气。因为这家美国第二大电信运营商向商业促进局申诉成功，称其竞争者的宽带网即便并未如自己那般从头至尾光纤延伸入户，却纷纷向消费者兜售―光纤高速‖。这并非只是愤愤之辞。就数量级而言，全光网是互联网信息异地迁移速度最快的方式，而Verizon拥有美国最大的全光网。难点在于用它赚钱。

The company is betting that highbandwidth web services will create a huge demand for fast networks—and profits.But that is in the future.In Japan and South Korea, two other countries with fast networks, the government has subsidised the laying of new fibre.In America, which has relied on private investment, Verizon is having to shoulder more of the risk.该公司正打赌，高带宽网络业务将创造对高速网络的巨大需求，并产生巨额利润。不过，这尚未到来。拥有高速网络的日韩两国，政府补贴新光纤铺设。而在依赖私人投资的美国，Verizon不得不承受更多风险。

The reason why the company was so keen to build a fast network goes back to how America was wired originally.In the beginning there was copper wire, which telephone companies ran to almost every house.Then, in the 1980s, cable-television companies secured local monopolies to provide coaxial cable as well.该公司热衷高速网络建设的原因，要追溯至美国当初如何布线。起初是铜线，电话公司铺至几乎每家每户。接着，在上世纪八十年代，有线电视公司获得了本地垄断权，也布设了同轴电缆。

At first the two networks had a fair fight, delivering the internet at about the same speed.No network, however, can run faster than the speed of its ―last mile‖, from the neighbourhood node to the house.This is the most expensive place to lay networks and the last mile of cable is faster than a copper wire.So the telephone companies would, eventually, be unable to deliver the internet as fast as their cable competitors.最初，这两种网络公平竞争，互联网传输速度大致相同。然而，没有网络能快过其―最后一英里‖（即从小区节点至用户家里那段）的速度。这是网络布设造价最贵之处，而电缆最后一英里比铜线快。因此电话公司也许最终，其互联网传输速度不能像有线竞争者那样快。

Verizon, formed in 2000 out of several regional telephone companies, decided to create a third network.Since 2004 it has strung optic fibre to 60% of the homes where it already had copper wires, mainly in Texas, California and on the East Coast.Verizon calls its new network ―FiOS‖.It cost about $23 billion to build and, according to Sanford Bernstein, an investment firm, contributed to the $32 billion debt of Verizon‘s wireline division.2000年成立、由几家区域电话公司组成的Verizon，决定创建第三种网络。2004年来，光纤拉进了60%已铺有铜线的家庭（主要在德克萨斯、加利福尼亚及东海岸地区）。Verizon称其新网络为―FiOS‖。其建设费约230亿美元，而据投资公司Sanford Bernstein的数据，这导致Verizon有线部门负债320亿美元。

To counter FiOS, the cable companies have run fibre to the neighbourhood node, from where the connection continues to the home through their existing cable.This technology now reaches more than 70% of homes(see chart)and, unlike Verizon, the cable companies did not have to pay to replace the last mile.为抗衡FiOS，有线公司已将光纤延伸至小区节点，从这儿继续用其现有电缆连接至用户家里。该技术现抵达了超过70%的家庭（如图所示），且与Verizon不同，有线公司无须掏钱更换最后一英里网络。

Basic copper and cable internet access cannot run faster than about 5 megabits per second, which is just about fast enough to watch something on YouTube or for a video chat over Skype.But networks seldom run as fast as advertised.The cable networks upgraded with fibre can run at speeds in the hundreds of megabits per second, enough to handle most present-day applications and many in the immediate future, like high-definition video.Yet Verizon‘s network could leave these in the dust.In tests in Massachusetts its fibre network has run as fast as 10,000 megabits per second, and it could go faster.基本的铜线及电缆互联网接入速度不超过5Mbits/s，仅够看YouTube或Skype视频聊天。不过，网速鲜有宣传得那样快。光纤升级后的有线网络，网速达几百兆每秒，足以应付现在的大部分应用，而在不远的将来出现的许多应用，如高清视频，处理起来也绰绰有余。然而，Verizon的网络将令上述网络望尘莫及，在马萨诸塞州进行的试验中，其光纤网速高达10Gbits/s,还能更快。

This puts Verizon in a tricky position.Its old copper network, still 40% of its customer base, is not fast enough but FiOS is faster than most consumers need.So the company is having to weather the transition to a time when faster networks become more important.On October 22nd Verizon said that its overall revenue, at $26.5 billion in the third quarter, was 2.9% down on the same period a year ago.Its mobile-phone division performed strongly, with revenue rising by 6%, to $16.3 billion.But its wireline business remained under pressure: revenue fell by 3.6% in the period and operating profit slumped by 90%.这令Verizon处境棘手。仍有40%客户基础的旧有铜线网速不够快，但FiOS却快得超过了大部分用户所需。因此该公司现在不得不挨过这一过渡期，直到高速网络日渐重要的那一天。10月22日，Verizon称今年第三季度总收入达265亿美元，较去年同期下降2.9%。其移动电话部门表现强劲，收入增加了6%，达163亿美元。但其有线业务仍面临压力：这一时期收入下跌3.6%，营业利润大幅下滑90%。

For now, Verizon has halted new investment in fibre while it tries to drum up more customers for FiOS.And for the long term it is trying to create demand for an even faster internet.Verizon has suggested that it be allowed to offer companies super-fast, premium access to its network while continuing to provide what it calls ―the open internet‖ to its customers.Verizon sees its fast network supplying programmes to 100-inch television screens and providing 3-D online gaming.More speed-demanding video games are coming(see article).The company has also been discussing linking medical devices in hospitals and doctors‘ surgeries.It is building connections to intelligent power grids, which businesses and homes could use to reduce their energy bills.For Verizon, the future cannot come fast enough.目前，Verizon暂停往光纤上再投资，同时设法力争更多FiOS顾客。而长期以来，它一直试图创造同样的高速互联网需求。Verizon表明，它应获准向企业提供高速、优惠的网络接入，同时继续向用户提供其所称的―开放式互联网‖。Verizon考虑让其高速网络提供100英寸电视屏幕节目及3D网络游戏。更多苛求速度的视频游戏正在涌现。该公司也一直在谈论用高速网络连接医院医疗设备及医生手术室。它正构建智能电网连接，企业及家庭用户可用其削减能源开销。对Verizon而言，未来来得还不够快。Born digital 数码人生

National libraries start to preserve the web, but cannot save everything 各国的图书馆开始保存网站，但不能面面俱到 Oct 21st 2010

The library of the future

IN THE digital realm, things seem always to happen the wrong way round.Whereas Google has hurried to scan books into its digital catalogue, a group of national libraries has begun saving what the online giant leaves behind.For although search engines such as Google index the web, they do not archive it.Many websites just disappear when their owner runs out of money or interest.Adam Farquhar, in charge of digital projects for the British Library, points out that the world has in some ways a better record of the beginning of the 20th century than of the beginning of the 21st.在数码界，出乎意料的事情屡见不鲜。当谷歌忙于将书籍扫描成数字文档时，各国图书馆已经开始保存这个在线巨人漏掉的资料。尽管谷歌这类搜索引擎提供网站的索引服务，但并没有把网站保存起来。很多网站因其所有人缺乏资金或失去兴趣而昙花一现。Adam Farquhar负责大英博物馆的数字项目，他指出在某种程度上全世界对20世纪初期的记录比21世纪初期的记录要好。

In 1996 Brewster Kahle, a computer scientist and internet entrepreneur, founded the Internet Archive, a non-profit organisation dedicated to preserving websites.He also began gently harassing national libraries to worry about preserving the web.They started to pay attention when several elections produced interesting material that never touched paper.在1996年，一个名为Brewster Kahle的计算机科学家和因特网企业家，成立了英特网档案室，这是一个非营利性的组织，致力于网站的保存。他也开始委婉地敦促各国的图书馆关注保存网站的问题。几轮选举中出现很多有意义材料，但从未以书面形式保留下来时，此时，各国图书馆开始关注这一问题。

In 2003 eleven national libraries and the Internet Archive launched a project to preserve ―born-digital‖ information: the kind that has never existed as anything but digitally.Called the International Internet Preservation Consortium(IIPC), it now includes 39 large institutional libraries.But the task is impossible.One reason is the sheer amount of data on the web.The groups have already collected several petabytes of data(a petabyte can hold roughly 10 trillion copies of this article).2003年，11家各国图书馆和因特网档案室启动一个保护数码信息的项目：此类信息没有以数码之外的任何其他形式存在过。这个称为―国际因特网保护联合体‖的项目，现有39家大型机构图书馆。但是这一任务几乎无法完成。理由之一是网络上的数据量极其庞大。这些团体已经收集了几拍（petabytes）的数据（一拍大约能装下10万亿篇本文）。

Another issue is ensuring that the data is stored in a format that makes it available in centuries to come.Ancient manuscripts are still readable.But much digital media from the past is readable only on a handful of fragile and antique machines, if at all.The IIPC has set a single format, making it more likely that future historians will be able to find a machine to read the data.But a single solution cannot capture all content.Web publishers increasingly serve up content-rich pages based on complex data sets.Audio and video programmes based on proprietary formats such as Windows Media Player are another challenge.What happens if Microsoft is bankrupt and forgotten in 2210? 另一个问题是如何确保现在储存数据的格式，在几个世纪之后依然存在。古代的一些书稿人们到今天还能读。但是很多过去的数字媒体，即使勉强能读，也仅限于为数不多的几台老掉牙的机器。国际因特网保护联合体已经单独创立一种格式，让未来的历史学家更有可能找到读取这些数据的机器。但一种解决方案不能抓取所有内容。网站发布工具越来越多地按照数据的复杂程度提供内容丰富的网页。以各类专有格式（如windows media player)储存的音频和视频内容也是个大问题。万一2210年微软破产或无人知晓怎么办？

The biggest problem, for now, is money.The British Library estimates that it costs half as much to store a digital document as it does a physical one.But there are a lot more digital ones.America‘s Library of Congress enjoys a specific mandate, and budget, to save the web.The British Library is still seeking one.现在面临的最大问题是钱。大英博物馆估计储存数字文件的花费是储存物理文件的一半。但是数字内容要多很多。美国国会图书馆很幸运，因为国家有具体的保护网站的命令和预算。大英博物馆还在争取这种命令。

So national libraries have decided to split the task.Each has taken responsibility for the digital works in its national top-level domain(web-address suffixes such as ―.uk‖ or ―.fr‖).In countries with larger domains, such as Britain and America, curators cannot hope to save everything.They are concentrating on material of national interest, such as elections, news sites and citizen journalism or innovative uses of the web.因此，各国的图书馆决定共同完成这个任务。它们分别承担其顶级域名内的数字作品（如后缀为―.uk‖或―.fr‖的网址）。如果某些国家域名庞大，如英国和美国，馆长们不要指望把什么都保存下来。他们需要重点处理关系国计民生的材料，如选举、新闻网站和公民的报章杂志或创意使用网站的方法。

The daily death of countless websites has brought a new sense of urgency—and forced libraries to adapt culturally as well.Past practice was to tag every new document as it arrived.Now precision must be sacrificed to scale and speed.The task started before standards, goals or budgets are set.And they may yet change.Just like many websites, libraries will be stuck in what is known as ―permanent beta‖.每天，都有无数网站消失，更让人感到时间紧迫——图书馆也不得不根据社会文化需要，灵活处理。过去习惯做法是凡是新文件，一一标注保存。现在则必须牺牲准确性换取规模和速度。标准、目标或预算都没确定，就开始工作了。而标准、任务、预算还可能变更。同很多网站一样，图书馆也将陷入所谓―永久试用‖的境地。

译者注：

本文不长，语言相对简单，但要译出―韵味‖，还是不容易。我觉得有几点需要大家尤其注意： 1.大意的把握。两方面内容，保存什么？保存的是网站内容，不是某个网页。谁来保存？各国的图书馆，这不是一个国家的图书馆能做得了的工作。这两点弄不好，文中web、national libraries就不好翻。某些具体语句的把握。除了要翻出意思，还要翻出感情色彩。就拿开头一句―things seem always to happen the wrong way round‖来说，有人翻成―倒行逆施‖，这就说明译者没有理解中文的倒行逆施有―贬义‖，用来形容某个不得人心、逆历史潮流而动的做法等，感情色彩很浓厚。而本文则没有这种强烈的情绪，因此，我认为―出乎意料的事情屡见不鲜‖、―事情的发展总是让人摸不透‖等比较贴切，看似―不准确‖，其实意思出来了。

Virtual outsourcing 虚拟外包业

Mobile work 移动工作

A way to earn money by texting 发短信赚钱之法

Oct 28th 2010 | new york

Mobile worker 移动工作者 THE idea came to Nathan Eagle, a research scientist with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, when he was doing a teaching stint in rural Kenya.He realised that, as three-quarters of the 4.6 billion mobile-phone users worldwide live in developing countries, a useful piece of technology is now being placed in the hands of a large number of people who might be keen to use their devices to make some money.To help them do so, he came up with a service called txteagle which distributes small jobs via text messaging in return for small payments.麻省理工学院研究员Nathan Eagle在肯尼亚乡下进行短期教学时，冒出了这一念头。他意识到，全世界46亿手机用户有四分之三生活在发展中国家，因而一项实用技术，此刻正掌握在大量或许渴望用自己手机赚钱的人手中。为帮助他们那样做，Eagle先生想出了一种叫做txteagle的业务，可以靠发文字短信分发零活来换取小额报酬。

Only 18% of people in the developing world have access to the internet, but more than 50% owned a mobile-phone handset at the end of 2009(a number which has more than doubled since 2005), according to the International Telecommunication Union.One study shows that adding ten mobile phones per 100 people in a typical developing country boosts growth in GDP per person by 0.8 percentage points.根据国际电信联盟的数据，2009年底，发展中国家仅有18%的人接入了互联网，却有超过一半的人拥有手机（这一数据自2005年以来增加了一倍以上）。一项研究表明，在一个典型的发展中国家，每百人增加十部手机，会使人均GDP提升0.8个百分点。

Mr Eagle hopes txteagle will do its bit by mobile ―crowdsourcing‖—breaking down jobs into small tasks and sending them to lots of individuals.These jobs often involve local knowledge and range from things like checking what street signs say in rural Sudan for a satellite-navigation service to translating words into a Kenyan dialect for companies trying to spread their marketing.A woman living in rural Brazil or India may have limited access to work, adds Mr Eagle, ―but she can still use her mobile phone to collect local price and product data or even complete market-research surveys.‖ Payments are transferred to a user‘s phone by a mobile money service, such as the M-PESA system run by Safaricom in Africa, or by providing additional calling credit.Eagle先生希望txteagle业务通过移动―众包‖（将工作拆分成零星任务后派发给众多个体）有所贡献。这些工作通常牵涉本地知识，涵盖各种事情，如为一种卫星导航业务核对种种路标在苏丹乡下表明什么，为那些试图扩展市场的公司将文字翻译为肯尼亚土语。一位住在巴西或印度乡下的妇女，或许工作机会有限，Eagle先生补充道，―但她仍能用自己的手机搜集当地价格及产品数据，甚或完成市场调研。‖报酬通过一种手机钱包业务（比如非洲Safaricom移动通信公司运营的M-PESA移动转账系统）转到用户手机上，或者打入额外的手机预付费。

Working with over 220 mobile operators, txteagle is able to reach 2 billion subscribers in 80 countries.It already has the largest contract-labour force in Kenya and new ways of using it are being found all the time.Recently a large media firm asked Mr Eagle for help in monitoring its television commercials across Africa.The company was concerned that, although it had paid for broadcasting rights, its ads could be replaced with others by local television companies.So txteagle pays locals to watch and then text notes about which ads are shown.―I would never think of that myself,‖ says Mr Eagle.Which is why he is not sure just how big all these small text jobs could become.txteagle业务与220多个移动运营商合作，能到达80个国家的20亿订户。在肯尼亚已拥有了最大的包工力量，新的使用方式一直层出不穷。最近一家媒体巨头向Eagle先生求助，监视其在非洲全境的电视商业广告。该公司担心，尽管其已为播映权掏了钱，但自个的广告却可能被当地电视公司的广告替换。于是txteagle业务付钱给当地人观察哪些广告播出了，然后用文字标注。Eagle说，―我自己决不会想到这个法子。‖他不确定所有这些零星的文字工作究竟会变成多大的力量，而这就是原因。The Big Mac index 巨无霸指数 An indigestible problem 难题

Why China needs more expensive burgers 为什么说中国的巨无霸太便宜了 Oct 14th 2010 | Hong kong

A WEAK currency, despite its appeal to exporters and politicians, is no free lunch.But it can provide a cheap one.In China, for example, a McDonald‘s Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average in Beijing and Shenzhen, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates.In America, in contrast, the same burger averages $3.71.出口商和政客所吁求的弱势货币绝非免费的午餐。不过它确实可以使午餐变得很便宜。比如说，在中国的北京和深圳，一个麦当劳巨无霸汉堡平均只需14.5元人民币即可买到，按市场汇率计算，相当于2.18美元。而在美国，相同的汉堡要卖到3.71美元。

That makes China‘s yuan one of the most undervalued currencies in the Big Mac index, our gratifyingly simple guide to currency misalignments, updated this week(see chart).The index is based on the idea of purchasing-power parity, which says that a currency‘s price should reflect the amount of goods and services it can buy.Since 14.5 yuan can buy as much burger as $3.71, a yuan should be worth $0.26 on the foreign-exchange market.In fact, it costs just $0.15, suggesting that it is undervalued by about 40%.这使得人民币成为本周巨无霸指数——本刊的实用单一货币失调指标——中最被低估的货币（见图）。巨无霸指数的基础是购买力平价，即一种货币的价格应该反映它所能买到的商品和服务。14.5元人民币可以买到3.71美元的汉堡，因此1元人民币应该在外汇市场中价值0.26美元。而事实上1元人民币只能兑换0.15美元，这意味着人民币被低估了40%。

The tensions caused by such misalignments prompted Brazil‘s finance minister, Guido Mantega, to complain last month that his country was a potential casualty of a ―currency war‖.Perhaps it was something he ate.In Brazil a Big Mac costs the equivalent of $5.26, implying that the real is now overvalued by 42%.The index also suggests that the euro is overvalued by about 29%.And the Swiss, who avoid most wars, are in the thick of this one.Their franc is the most expensive currency on our list.The Japanese are so far the only rich country to intervene directly in the markets to weaken their currency.But according to burgernomics, the yen is only 5% overvalued, not much of a casus belli.在货币失调所造成的国际紧张局面面前，巴西财政部长曼特加（Guido Mantega）上个月发出了巴西是―货币战争‖潜在受害者的感叹。或许他是在抱怨自己吃的东西太贵了。在巴西，一个巨无霸汉堡的价格相当于5.26美元，表明雷亚尔被高估了42%。巨无霸指数还显示欧元被高估了29%。而传统的中立国瑞士这次站在了货币战争最前线。瑞士法郎已成为指数中最昂贵的货币。日本是目前唯一直接干预货币市场使本国货币贬值的发达国家。但从我们的汉堡经济学视角来看，日元只被高估了5%，显然不能作为发动货币战的借口。

If a currency war is in the offing, America‘s congressmen seem increasingly determined to arm themselves.A bill passed by the House of Representatives last month would treat undervalued currencies as an illegal export subsidy and allow American firms to request countervailing tariffs.The size of those tariffs would reflect the scale of the undervaluation.货币战争是否一触即发姑且不论，美国的国会议员们似乎是铁了心要开始武装戒备了。上个月，众议院通过了一项法令，将被低估的货币视同非法出口补贴，美国公司有权要求征收抵消性关税。具体的税率体现了被低估的程度。

How does the bill propose to calculate this misalignment? It relies not on Big Macs, but on the less digestible methods favoured by the IMF.The fund uses three related approaches.First, it calculates the real exchange rate that would steadily bring a country‘s current-account balance(equivalent to the trade balance plus a few other things)into line with a ―norm‖ based on the country‘s growth, income per person, demography and budget balance.这一法令通过什么方法计算货币失调程度呢？不是巨无霸指数，而是IMF所惯用的深奥算法。IMF使用三种相互关联的手段来计算汇率。一是根据使一国经常项目收支（相当于贸易收支在加上少数其他项目）与―标准‖（由该国增长率、人均收入、人口和财政收支等因素决定）相匹配的原则来计算真实汇率。

The fund‘s second approach ignores current-account balances and instead calculates a direct statistical relationship between the real exchange rate and things like a country‘s terms of trade(the price of its exports compared with its imports), its productivity and its foreign assets and liabilities.The strength of Brazil‘s currency, for example, may partly reflect the high price of exports such as soyabeans.第二种算法忽略经常项目收支，而是计算一国真实汇率与该国进出口比价（出口品价格与进口品价格之比）、生产力、对外资产负债情况等因素的直接统计关系。比如，巴西里亚尔的强势一定程度上是拜其出口品（如大豆）价格较高所赐。

Third, the fund also calculates the exchange rate that would stabilise the country‘s foreign assets and liabilities at a reasonable level.If, for example, a country runs sizeable trade surpluses, resulting in a rapid build-up of foreign assets, it probably has an undervalued exchange rate.三是计算使一国对外资产和负债稳定在合理水平的汇率。比如，如果某国有着巨大的贸易盈余，因而对外资产迅速囤积，那么该国货币就有可能是被低估的。

The IMF has typically assessed its members‘ policies one at a time.But the fund‘s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, now proposes to assess its biggest members all at once to make sure their macroeconomic strategies do not work at cross-purposes.He is keen to identify the ways in which a country‘s policies, including its exchange-rate policies, ―spill over‖ to its neighbours.在通常情况下，IMF会逐一评估各成员国的政策。但总干事多米尼克?斯特劳斯-卡恩（Dominique Strauss-Kahn）最近建议同时评估所有最重要成员国，以确保它们的宏观经济策略目标不会相互冲突。卡恩急切地想弄明白一国的政策——包括汇率政策在内——是如何―溢出‖从而影响到邻国的。

Those spillovers depend on the size of the economy as much as the scale of any misalignments.But the biggest economies are also the hardest to bully.The fund‘s last annual report on the Chinese economy, in July, included the government‘s rebuttal of every criticism the fund offered.In a decorous compromise the report concluded that the yuan was ―substantially‖ undervalued but refrained from quantifying the size of the problem.溢出效应既取决于失调的严重程度，也取决于经济规模的大小。但大经济体通常也是强硬派。在IMF最新一期的中国经济年报（7月发布）中，中国政府逐条反驳了IMF提出的所有批评。IMF只能作出适当让步，仅仅称人民币被―显著‖低估了，而没有给出到底低估多少的具体数字。

Big revaluations of the kind required to satisfy the fund or equalise the price of burgers are unlikely.A recent study of the Big Mac index by Kenneth Clements, Yihui Lan and Shi Pei Seah of the University of Western Australia showed that misalignments are remarkably persistent.As a result, the raw index did a poor job of predicting exchange rates: undervalued currencies remain too cheap and overvalued currencies remain too pricey.要被低估的货币一下子升值到符合IMF的标准或者使巨无霸汉堡价格一致的水平是不可能的。西澳大利亚大学的肯尼斯?克莱门茨（Kenneth Clements）、Yihui Lan和Shi Pei Seah对巨无霸指数的最新研究表明，失调具有明显的持久性。因此，原始指数无法很好地预测汇率走势：被低估的货币通常会持续低估，而被高估的货币则持续高估。

But since this bias is systematic, it can be identified and removed.Once that is done, the three economists show that a reconstituted index is good at predicting real exchange rates over horizons of a year or more.Since The Economist costs just $6.99(a little less than two burgers)on the news-stand, the index provides decent value for money for would-be currency speculators, the authors conclude.The Big Mac index may itself be undervalued.但这一偏差是系统性的，因此可以被识别和移除。只要修正这一偏差，三位经济学家显示，改进的巨无霸指数就可以很好地在年及年以上时间单位上预测汇率走势。鉴于本刊报摊零售价不过6.99美元（还不到两个汉堡的价钱），笔者认为我们的指数对欲从事货币投机者来说绝对物超所值。也许巨无霸指数本身也被低估了。Microsoft's mobile operating system 微软的移动操作系统

Windows or curtains（注1）良机还是死路？

The software giant is desperate to make a splash in the smart-phone business 软件巨头孤注一掷，想要在智能电话行业大展拳脚

Oct 7th 2010 | San Francisco

AT A company meeting last year, Steve Ballmer, Microsoft‘s pugnacious boss, spied an employee taking a photo on an Apple iPhone.He promptly grabbed the offending device and pretended to stamp on it.Microsoft would love to crush competitors in the smart-phone market, but it has repeatedly failed to come up with compelling offerings of its own.Now the software firm is gearing up for another assault on a business that is crucial to its future.去年，在一次公司会议上，斗志旺盛的微软老板斯蒂夫?鲍尔默，发现一名雇员正在用苹果的iPhone拍照。他一把夺过这台令其不快的设备，作势猛踩。微软巴不得击垮智能电话市场上的对手，却一而再再而三地、未能整出强有力的产品。现在，这家软件公司正憋足了劲，要在智能手机行业发起又一轮出击，该行业对其未来至关紧要。

On October 11th Microsoft is due to unveil phones from manufacturers such as HTC and Samsung that incorporate its new operating system, Windows Phone 7(WP7).An accompanying media blitz will seek to position it as an attractive alternative to Apple‘s iPhone, Google‘s Android and Symbian, which powers many Nokia phones(see chart).The stakes are high for Microsoft and for Mr Ballmer, whose stewardship of the firm is the subject of intense debate.Microsoft‘s share price has fallen by almost 20% since the beginning of this year, while the S&P 500 stockmarket index has risen by 4%.10月11日，微软打算揭晓几款含有其新操作系统WP7的手机（由诸如HTC与三星等制造商生产）。随之而来的媒体广告狂轰滥炸，试图将此操作系统定位成苹果iPhone、谷歌Android及驱动许多诺基亚电话的塞班系统的替代物（如图所示）。无论对于微软还是因公司管理工作而饱受非议的鲍尔默先生来说，这一赌注的风险都极高。今年初以来，微软的股价下跌了近20%，而标准普尔500股价指数却上涨了4%。

Microsoft hopes not only to profit from selling licences for its software but also to push its other services via the phones.Bing, the firm‘s internet search engine, Xbox Live, its gaming platform, and Zune, its music and video player, are baked into the new operating system.Microsoft is also betting that WP7 will help it preserve its once vice-like grip on the workplace.That hold is slipping as firms let employees toting iPhones and Android-based devices use them for work.微软不仅希望从软件授权销售中获利，也期望通过这种智能手机推销别的业务。该公司的互联网搜索引擎Bing，游戏平台Xbox Live，及音乐视频播放器Zune，均植入了这款新操作系统。微软也打赌说，WP7将帮助其捍卫昔日在工作场所中坚不可摧的掌控地位。由于许多公司让雇员配备iPhone及基于Android系统的设备用于工作，这种掌控正慢慢松弛。

The new phones boast a slick touch-screen interface and several novel features, including one that makes it easier than on most smart-phones to post news and photos to social networks on the move.Microsoft has also laid down minimum standards to which phonemakers must adhere for things such as built-in cameras.Some earlier Windows phones suffered from poor hardware.―There isn‘t a thing about our approach to this business that we haven‘t changed,‖ says Greg Sullivan, a Microsoft executive.这种新电话自诩拥有平滑流畅的触摸屏界面及数个新颖的特点，其中之一，是人们移动时用其发布新闻及照片到社交网络上，要比其它大部分智能手机更为轻松方便。微软也制定了电话制造商必须支持的某些事物如内置摄像头的最低标准。早期的某些Windows系统手机深受工艺落后的硬件之苦。―我们进入这个行业，没有什么是一成不变的，‖微软高级主管格雷格?沙利文说。

The firm is also expected to spend enormous sums promoting its new system.According to some estimates, it has earmarked $400m-500m to boost WP7, an amount that is likely to be matched by phonemakers and telecoms companies that will offer the new devices.By comparison, Motorola, Verizon and Google spent $100m on the launch of the Android-powered Droid smart-phone at the end of 2009, reckons Deutsche Bank.Microsoft is also taking to the courts.Last week it sued Motorola, arguing that the firm‘s phones violated some of its patents.微软也料到新系统推销会花费巨大。根据一些估计，它将拨出4到5亿美元专款宣传WP7，这一数额可能相当于那些提供这种新设备的手机制造商与电信公司的行销费用。相比之下，根据德意志银行估计，2009年底，摩托罗拉、弗莱森与谷歌公司发布Android驱动的Droid智能电话花了1亿美元。微软也习惯上法庭了。上周，它起诉摩托罗拉，理由是该公司的智能电话侵犯了自己的某些专利。

Such legal quarrels are unlikely to halt the rise of Android.Google‘s operating system is now the most popular one among recent buyers of smart-phones in America, although Apple will become a stronger competitor if it releases a Verizon iPhone, as has been rumoured.―Microsoft is way behind the competition and the chances of it catching up are fairly low,‖ says Brent Thill of UBS, an investment bank.He points out that it will take time to persuade developers to create a rich range of software applications for Microsoft‘s operating system.IDC, another research company, reckons that by 2014 Microsoft will still trail both Apple and Android, as well as Research in Motion(RIM), the maker of the BlackBerry.此类法律争端不大会遏制Android的发展。若苹果如传言那般，发布一款Version iPhone，它就将成为更为强有力的竞争者，但即便如此，近期的美国智能电话买家，目前最亲睐的仍是谷歌的操作系统。―微软在竞争中远远落后，赶上的机会也极为渺茫，‖一家投资银行瑞士联合银行（UBS）的布伦特?希尔称。他指出，要说服开发者创建出一系列适用于微软操作系统的丰富多彩的软件应用，尚需时日。另一家研究公司国际数据集团（IDC）估计，到2014年，微软仍会被苹果及Android甩在身后，亦将落后于黑莓手机制造商移动研究所（RIM）。

Hence persistent speculation in Silicon Valley that the software behemoth, which has a $37 billion cash pile, might be tempted to bid for RIM, whose phones are popular with corporate road-warriors.If Mr Ballmer is still around to negotiate such a deal, it might be the best chance he has of putting Microsoft‘s stamp on the smart-phone world.因此，硅谷不断推测，这家拥有370亿美元现金资产的软件巨无霸，试图竞购RIM，而RIM的智能电话广受经常出差的公司员工欢迎。若鲍尔默先生仍盘算着要谈判这样一项交易，那么，这将是其所拥有的、在智能电话领域打上微软烙印的一个最佳机会。

注1：windows or curtains

标题语带双关，windows既指微软的―视窗‖操作系统，又指―最佳时机、有可能完成某事的一段时间或机会‖；curtains俚语指灾难、死亡、完蛋，同时对应windows，是一种文字游戏。

Charlemagne

Economic sanctions? Yes, please 经济制裁？拜托，快来吧

Brussels wants to delve deep into the running of national economies.It should beware of digging too far 欧盟想深入钻研国家经济的运行。应该留神不要钻的太深。

Sep 30th 2010 2010.09.30

THEY came to Brussels this week in their tens of thousands, from Finland to Greece, to say no to austerity.Their message was simple: the poor and the workers are being made to pay for the sins of the bankers and the speculators.To judge from some banners, they may have a new category of enemy: Eurocrats.数以万计的抗议者们从芬兰到希腊的广大地域内来到布鲁塞尔，抗议财政紧缩政策。他们传达的信息很简单：穷人和工人正在被迫为银行和投机者犯下的罪行买单。从一些打出的标语来看，他们又有了新的一群敌人---欧盟官员。

José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, keeps saying that the days of stimulus spending are over;now is the time for budget cuts.To ensure that members of the European Union maintain fiscal discipline, he proposed on September 29th stern new measures to give the commission power to scrutinise their budgets and impose hundreds of millions of euros‘ worth of penalties on the profligate.Even those that pig-headedly refuse to reform their economies could be punished.欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐一直在说，刺激经济的支出已告结束，到了削减预算的时候了。为了保证欧盟成员国继续遵守财政纪律，他于9月29日提出了一份苛刻的新方法，授予委员会对成员国预算的审查权，以及有权对肆意铺张的国家处以相当于上亿欧元的处罚。连那些顽固地拒绝对本国进行经济改革的国家也可能被罚。

For Mr Barroso this ―economic governance‖ is the only way to ensure the survival of the euro.But outside the commission, demonstrators see things differently.To John Monks, general secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation, the EU is turning into a ―punishment squad‖.Left-wing members of the European Parliament are in a quandary.They want ―more Europe‖, but in this case more Europe means more austerity.在巴罗佐看来，这种―经济管理‖是保证欧元得以存续的唯一方式。但在欧盟委员会之外的示威者可不这么看。在欧洲工会联邦总干事John Monks看来，欧盟正在变成一个―惩罚班‖。欧洲议会中的左翼成员左右为难，他们想要―更加欧洲化‖，但就此情况下，更加欧洲化意味着更严厉的财政紧缩。

This year‘s Greek crisis exposed the inadequacies of the euro, a single currency without a joint economic or fiscal policy.Trouble in even a peripheral country like Greece, whose GDP is less than a tenth of Germany‘s, posed dangers to all.Loose agreements have not proved strong enough to stop reckless behaviour.Sanctions exist, in theory, in the stability and growth pact, which requires euro-area countries to keep deficits below 3% of GDP and government debt below 60% of GDP, but they have never been imposed.Governments have been reluctant to criticise each other in public, let alone to mete out fines.今年希腊的危机暴露了欧元的缺陷，身为单一货币却没有共同的经济和财政政策。就连希腊这种GDP不到德国十分之一的次要国家有了麻烦，就使所有国家都陷入了危险。事实证明，松散的协议不足以阻止鲁莽的行为。制裁只在理论上存在于稳定与增长公约【注1】中，公约要求欧盟区国家的赤字要低于GDP的3%，政府债务低于GDP的60%，但制裁从未真正

第二篇：economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照

Whopper to go 至尊汉堡，打包带走

Will Burger King be gobbled up by private equity? 汉堡王是否会被私人股本吞并？

Sep 2nd 2010 | NEW YORK

SHARES in Burger King(BK)soared on September 1st on reports that the fast-food company was talking to several private-equity firms interested in buying it.How much beef was behind these stories was unclear.But lately the company famous for the slogan “Have It Your Way” has certainly not been having it its own way.There may be arguments about whether BK or McDonald’s serves the best fries, but there is no doubt which is more popular with stockmarket investors: the maker of the Big Mac has supersized its lead in the past two years.有报道披露，快餐企业汉堡王（BK）正在与数个有收购意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，汉堡王的股值随之飙升。这些报道究竟有多少真材实料不得而知。汉堡王的著名口号是“我选我味”，但如今显然它身不由己，心中五味杂陈。汉堡王和麦当劳哪家薯条最好吃，食客们一直争论不休，但股票投资人更喜欢哪家股票，却一目了然：过去两年里，巨无霸麦当劳一直在扩大自己的优势。

Recession has favoured McDonald’s over BK, whose share price has fallen by half since the economy was flame-grilled in the summer of 2008.Shares in McDonald’s have risen, reaching an all-time high in August.Same-store sales at BK have fallen for five successive quarters.金融危机却更青睐汉堡王，自2008年经济低迷以来，其股票价格跌至原来的一半。而麦当劳的股票不跌反涨，在8月又创下了历史新高。汉堡王的同店销售额连续五个季度下跌。

Why has McDonald’s been eating BK’s lunch? Among other things, BK has always had a higher proportion of sales to young men, who have been hit especially hard by the recession.McDonald’s, by contrast, has for several years wooed women and older people with relatively healthy salads and drinkable coffee.BK has struggled to follow suit.At the same time, it has had to contend with angry shareholders, as the rising cost of beef and other ingredients has clobbered its profits.BK may also have cannibalised its existing sales by offering value meals that were a bit too irresistible.为何麦当劳在与汉堡王的竞争中占得先机？别的不谈，汉堡王的顾客更多的是年轻人，而年轻人受金融危机打击尤其严重。相对地，麦当劳近年来一直以相对健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。汉堡王一直难以模仿。与此同时，随着牛肉等原材料的成本上涨，利润一跌再跌，汉堡王又不得不去对付那些愤怒的股东。汉堡王的套餐太过诱人，可能也影响了其他产品的销量。BK is used to changes in ownership.It went from being part of Pillsbury, a food company, to Grand Metropolitan, a British conglomerate, then to Diageo, a drinks giant.In 2002 it was sold to a group of private-equity investors: TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs.They did a fair job, improving sales with better marketing.They also helped turn around the most troubled of the franchisees who operate most BK restaurants.In 2006 BK floated its shares again.Its bosses may hope that going private once more will protect them from short-term stockmarket pressures while they ponder how to beat McDonald’s.汉堡王此前多次易主，已经习以为常了。它曾是皮尔斯百利食品公司的一部分，后转入英国大都会集团，继而转投饮品巨头帝亚吉欧。2002年又被转手卖给一批私人股本投资者：德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛。他们经营良好，利用优秀市场策略增加了销售。大部分汉堡王餐厅的运营商当时经营不善，他们还助其扭亏为盈。2006年汉堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以规避短期股市压力，为其争取时间定策击败麦当劳。

If BK does go private, it may be part of a trend in the private-equity industry—now that some of the bigger firms have rediscovered their appetite for deals—of gobbling up the companies they had taken public during the bubble years but which are now trading cheaply.TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs still own a sizeable stake in BK, despite listing it on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006.However, it seems that other private-equity firms are interested in buying it.If that happens, no doubt BK servers will appreciate the irony: the act of passing a company from one private-equity firm to another is known in the business as “flipping”.私人股本行业——如今一些大公司重新对收购有了兴趣——吞并那些他们在经济泡沫时代卖掉，现在十分廉价的公司，俨然已成一股大潮，如果汉堡王真的私有化，就将融入这股大潮之中。德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛虽然2006年在纽约证券交易所已经兜售了汉堡王，但他们仍握有可观的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收购。要是真被他们收购，无疑汉堡王的服务生都能领会其中的讽刺：在私人股本公司中被倒卖，在做汉堡这行叫“翻面”。

本主题由 shiyi18 于 2010-11-12 13:16 移动评分收藏2 分享0 0 0

Down the slipway下水

“Quantitative easing” is unloved and unappreciated—but it is working “量化宽松”不受待见，但是有效 Nov 4th 2010 | Washington, dc

The announcement of “QE2” was hardly breathtaking.The Fed said it will buy $600 billion of Treasuries between now and next June, at about $75 billion a month, although it also said it could adjust the amount and timing if need be.That was about what markets expected but far less than the $1.75 trillion of debt it bought between early 2009 and early 2010 in its first round of QE.Yet QE2 seems already to have exceeded the low expectations it has aroused.Since Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, hinted at it at Jackson Hole on August 27th, markets have all done exactly what they should(see chart).第二轮量化宽松并没有惊人之处。美联储称，从现在起到明年6月，它将购买6 000亿美元美国国债，相当于每月购买750亿美元，但具体数字可能随情况进行调整。这一规模与市场预期相当，远低于2009年初至2010年初第一轮量化宽松（总共购买债务1.75万亿美元）。但第二轮量化宽松似乎已经超过了它所引起的低预期。自美联储主席本?伯南克于8月27日在杰克森霍尔（Jackson Hole）暗示这一计划以来，市场对此已有了充分的反映（见图）。

Under QE the Fed buys long-term bonds with newly created money.This lowers long-term yields and chases investors into riskier, alternative investments.The real yield on ten-year, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds has fallen from 1.05% to 0.5%, a result of relatively flat nominal yields and a rise in expected inflation.The yield on their five-year cousins is negative(see Buttonwood).Share prices are up by 14% in the same period.Lower yields make the dollar less appealing: it has duly fallen by 5% against the Japanese yen, by 9% against the euro and by 5% on a trade-weighted basis.“You can declare QE to be a success already,” says one hedge-fund economist.“Whether this translates into real activity remains a question-mark.But the question of whether the mechanism would work has been answered.”

在量化宽松计划中，美联储将通过发行新钞买入长期债券。这压低了后者的收益率，使投资者转向风险更高的替代投资品。在名义收益率相对较平和预期通胀的双重作用下，10年期通胀指数化美国国债真实收益率从1.05%下降至0.5%。五年期品种则已呈现负利率（见本期Bottonwood）。同期，股票市场上涨了14%。收益率的下降使美元失去了吸引力：美元对日元下跌了5%，对欧元下跌了9%，从贸易加权角度看，则下跌了5%。一位对冲基金经济学家说：“可以说，量化宽松已经获得了成功。它能不能转化为实际行动还不好说。但其机制是否起作用已经毋庸置疑了。”

Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, reckons that the Fed will eventually buy $1.5 trillion of debt under QE2, and that this will raise growth next year to 3.6% from 3.3% without QE.That’s not exactly overwhelming: the firm thinks the Fed would have to buy $5.25 trillion of bonds to achieve the equivalent of a –4% federal-funds rate, which is what the economy needs.The Fed will not do that for fear of unknown consequences, among them the response of Congress’s newly empowered Republicans.In a Bloomberg poll, 60% of self-identified tea-party supporters favoured overhauling or abolishing the Fed.咨询公司Macroeconomic Advisers认为，美联储在第二轮量化宽松中将总共购买1.5万亿美元债务，使明年的经济增长率从3.3%（如果不实行量化宽松的话）提高到3.6%。这还不是最令人震惊的：该公司还认为，美国经济需要联邦基金利率下降到-4%的水平，要达到这一效果，美联储必须购买5.25万亿美元债券才行。要美联储抛出如此大手笔是不可能的，因为它害怕因此导致不可预料的后果，比如引起最近在国会中重掌大权的共和党人的激烈反应。彭博社（Bloomberg）的调查显示，60%自称茶党支持者的人赞成改组甚至取消美联储。

Could QE work too well and drive inflation expectations to dangerous levels? “The odds aren’t zero,” says Don Kohn, a former Fed vice-chairman, but they’re small.There’s more risk that expectations could rise once credit loosens up and spending accelerates.That, however, would be a signal that the Fed has succeeded;it can then tighten policy.量化宽松会过犹不及、将通胀预期推高到危险水平吗？“并非不可能。”前美联储副主席邓?考恩（Don Kohn）说，但可能性很小。更大的风险是通胀预期在信贷放松和支出增速之后抬头。但这正是美联储成功的信号，届时它已经可以采取紧缩措施了。

A damaging round of beggar-thy-neighbour currency interventions cannot be ruled out.But the Bank of Japan, after intervening directly to weaken the yen in September, has struck upon a more benign response.It had been scheduled to release details of its own QE at a regular policy meeting in mid-November but moved the date forward to this week.Analysts suspect this was to counteract upward pressure on the yen because of the Fed’s move.If central banks all print money in unison, and don’t mop up excess liquidity, then the result could be a worldwide monetary fillip.QE’s benefits should not be over-egged.Nor should they be dismissed.不能排除发生一种危险情况，那就是各国竞相采取以邻为壑的货币市场干预手段。日本银行在9月就曾经直接干预外汇市场使日元贬值，但这一回，日本银行的反应较为温和。原定11月中旬政策例会上宣布的日本量化宽松计划将提前至本周。分析师认为日本央行此举是为了缓和美联储动作给日元带来的升值压力。如果各国央行一起开动印钞机，而不顾流动性过剩的后果，那么结果将是全球货币刺激。没有必要过分强调量化宽松的好处，但也不应该刻意贬低。

Opening stand 登场

Luck may play a big role in launching successful careers 上佳的运气是成功职业开端的一半

Nov 18th 2010

IN CRICKET batsmen often need a slice of luck to build a decent innings.Might that be true of cricketers’ careers in general, and even of other jobs? In an IMF working paper Shekhar Aiyar and Rodney Ramcharan suggest that it is lucky for international cricketers to play their debut Test(international)match at home.在板球比赛中，击球手通常需要点运气才能打出不错的击球局。所有板球选手都是这样吗？其他职业也是如此吗？在一篇IMF工作论文中，Shekhar Aiyar和Rodney Ramcharan提出，就（国际）对抗赛（Test）而言，能在主场上演职业生涯首秀对于板球选手来说是件幸事。

Playing at home means familiar pitches and climatic conditions, and a more supportive crowd(just ask the English cricketers whose series against Australia starts in Brisbane on November 25th).Sifting through the data on 790 cricketers who made their Test debuts between 1950 and 1985, the authors find that playing at home rather than away raises the average number of runs scored in their first series by 33% and reduces the runs that a bowler concedes by 18%.主场作战意为着更熟悉的场地和天气状况，以及更高的观众支持率（关于这一点，11月25日做客布里斯班与澳大利亚进行系列赛的英格兰板球队队员将有切身体会）。通过分析1950至1985年间790位板球手在对抗赛处子秀上的表现，两位作者发现，主场作战平均能将处子系列赛得分“跑”次数较客场提高33%，将被对方投手封杀的“跑”的次数降低18%。

This would not be luck, of course, if team selectors deliberately give home debuts to better players.But first starts are often the result of random events such as the injury or poor performance of existing team members.By using age as a proxy for ability(assuming that younger players who force their way into international sides tend to be more talented), the authors find that the distribution of cricketers’ ages is almost identical for home and away debuts.当然，如果各队有意将主场处子秀的机会留给较为优秀的选手的话，那么出现上述结果就并非运气了。但处子秀本身是由一系列随机事件决定的：比如队友受伤或是状态低迷等。两位作者将年龄作为能力的一个代表因素（假设选手成功登上国际赛场的年龄越低，则其水平就越优秀），结果发现，板球选手主场处子秀年龄分布和客场没有区别。

A strong debut seems to lead to a shinier career.Every additional ten runs scored in a debut series adds an extra five runs to a player’s career average.The effects of initial success are similar for bowlers.One possibility is that a good start builds confidence and experience that boosts future performance.A bad start, in contrast, is not easily forgiven: selectors appear to discard potentially high-ability players who had the misfortune to debut abroad.强势处子秀似乎意味着辉煌的职业生涯。系列赛处子秀上得分跑次数每增加10次，选手职业生涯平均得分跑次数就能增加5次。开门红效应对投手也适用。原因可能是成功的开端所带来的信心和经验能够刺激选手的未来表现。反之，如果处子秀演砸了，就可能留下持久的阴影：首秀是在客场，又没能出彩，那么即使你很有潜质，在后来的比赛中也可能得不到出场机会。

A good start may have a persistent, positive impact in other fields, too.That’s especially likely if employers take things at face value and fail to discount the impact of other factors that might enable good performance—a boom in financial markets for a trader, let’s imagine.良好的开端在其他领域也可能有持久的正面效应。特别是，当雇主只看表面结果而忽略其他可能带来良好表现的因素时，开门红效应就尤为显著。大牛市对于交易员的影响就是其中之一。

A rock, not a hard place 选石的，不选硬的

Boom time for miners in a resource-hungry region 资源饥渴地区的矿业繁荣

Nov 11th 2010 | Hong Kong

IT CAN sometimes feel as if bankers in Asia are shifting their focus backwards along the economic food chain.First they moved from manufacturing to property.Now it’s the turn of rocks.有时候，银行家在亚洲的一举一动让人感到他们是在逆经济食物链而动。他们先是将注意力从制造业转向房地产。现在则轮到了矿石。

In Hong Kong alone seven mining and natural-resources firms have gone public this year, raising HK$36 billion($4.6 billion)in the process.Another 13 listed in 2009, raising HK$58 billion, up from not very much the year before.A further 10-15 firms are due to list over the next year and the sums raised will almost certainly be bigger than before, thanks to Asia’s appetite for raw materials and inexorably rising commodities prices.光是在香港，今年以来便已有7家矿产和自然资源公司上市，总融资额高达360亿港币。2009年全年共有13家矿产类公司在香港上市，融资580亿港币，较清淡的2008年有所增长。明年还有10~15家公司等着上市。由于亚洲对原材料的巨大需求和不断上涨的商品价格，总融资额达到空前高度已是板上钉钉。

One of the more meteoric ascents has been that of Sino Prosper State Gold Resources Holdings, a Hong Kong-listed company which a year ago was barely more than a shell company.It had an agreement to buy what was thought to be a small mine in Inner Mongolia, along with five undeveloped tracts of land in a remote area of Heilongjiang, in China’s north-eastern tip.The firm was valued on the Hong Kong stock exchange at HK$400m.Since then the price of gold has spiked, and the mine has been bought and turned out to be not so very small after all.Sino Prosper’s valuation is currently HK$3.5 billion and it has become a beacon for other minerals firms.矿产类股票中火速蹿升，其中中盈国金控股有限公司的表现尤其耀眼。这家香港上司公司一年前还是个皮包公司，手里握有一张协议，内容据说是关于收购内蒙古一家小型金矿和黑龙江省边远地区五块未开发地皮的，去年的市值为4亿港币。从那儿以后，金价开始飙涨，于是小金矿摇身一变成了大宝库，中盈国金的市值目前已高达35亿港币，成了矿业股中的明星。

Hong Kong’s Canadian Chamber of Commerce this week held an invitation-only conference on mining.It was packed with Canadian companies in search of capital either through a direct listing(difficult, given profitability requirements at the Hong Kong stock exchange)or a partial investment by a cash-laden, resource-hungry Chinese firm.Investors seemed less concerned by the risks of digging up minerals, more by potential political obstacles in the wake of the Canadian government’s intervention to block BHP Billiton’s hostile takeover of Potash Corporation.上周，众多加拿大公司出席了一个由香港加拿大商会（Canadian Chamber of Commerce）举办的凭柬入场矿业会议，或是争取直接上市（这比较困难，因为香港股票交易所对上市公司盈利能力要求较高），或是寻求手握重金又急切需要资源的中国企业作为部分投资人，以获得资本。投资者们似乎不太担心挖矿风险，而是更加顾忌潜在的政治障碍——加拿大政府干预叫停了必和必拓（BHP Billiton）对Potash公司的敌意收购。

Only two large mines are currently being developed—gold and copper in Oyu Tolgoi, coal in Tavan Tolgoi—but there are numerous smaller mines throughout the country and 15 major deposits that are the source of serious discussions between global mining giants and the government, says Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt of TenGer, a bank holding company.Financiers are on the hunt for investment opportunities in other businesses, too.Mr Hutagt calls Mongolia a wolf economy, hungry and eager.Just like the bankers.目前蒙古只有两个较大的矿处于开发中——Oyu Tolgoi的金铜伴生矿和Tavan Tolgoi的煤矿。但是，TenGer银行控股公司的Ganhuyag Chuluun Hutagt透露，有传言说蒙古政府正在就全国众多小型矿和15个主要大矿与全球矿业巨头进行重要谈判。除了矿产企业之外，金融家也在蒙古寻求着其他业务机会。Hutagt用“狼”来形容蒙古经济，认为它又饥饿又迫切。这倒是与银行家颇为相似。America's budget deficit 美国的预算赤字

Speak softly and carry a big chainsaw 轻声细语的德州电锯

Sorting out America’s fiscal mess is relatively simple.What’s needed is political courage 欲解美国财政乱局何其简单，政治勇气足以

Nov 18th 2010

LAST week Asia, this week Europe: no wonder Barack Obama has been to so many foreign summits since his party took a pounding in the mid-term elections.With the prospect of gridlock at home, a president naturally turns abroad.Yet Mr Obama badly needs to show that he can still lead on domestic policy.He should start by cajoling Congress into an agreement to tackle America’s ominous fiscal arithmetic.自从奥巴马领军的民主党在中期选举中身受重创后，他两周内接连出访欧亚两洲；因此频繁出席境外峰会也就不稀奇了。既然国内前景仍是一片僵局，那么总统先生转战国外也算是自然而然的事情。然而奥巴马目前急需证明自己仍有能力引领国内政局；鉴于目前美国的“预算数学题”非常难解，他不妨从这里开始，但需要拉拢国会以便达成共识。

A trillion-dollar trove 上万亿的聚宝盆

The scale of America’s fiscal problem depends on how far ahead you look.Today’s deficit, running at 9% of GDP, is huge.Federal debt held by the public has shot up to 62% of GDP, the highest it has been in over 50 years.But that is largely thanks to the economy’s woes.If growth recovers, the hole left by years of serial tax-cutting and overspending can be plugged: you need to find spending cuts or tax increases equal only to 2% of GDP to stabilise federal debt by 2015.But look farther ahead and a much bigger gap appears, as an ageing population needs ever more pensions and health care.Such “entitlements” will double the federal debt by 2027;and the number keeps on rising after then.The figures for state and local debt are scary too.美国财政问题的严重程度取决于预期时间的长短。目前巨额的赤字水平已经达到了GDP的9%。拜美国的苦难经济所赐，社会需求造成的联邦债务对GDP比例达到了62%，这是过去50多年来从未出现过的。如果经济恢复增长，那么连续数年减税政策和过度消费导致的缺口就有可能得到弥补：如果希望在2015年使联邦债务达到稳定水平，仅需相当于GDP2%的支出削减或者税收增加就可以实现。但如果预测更长远的未来，那么人口老龄化会增高的养老金和健康保障计划的需求，缺口就将变的更大。类似的“社保支出”将会迫使联邦债务在2027年翻倍；而且会越来越高。州债务和地方债务看起来同样可怕。

The solution should start with an agreement between Mr Obama and Congress on a target for a manageable level of publicly held federal debt: say, 60% of GDP by 2020.They should also agree on the broad balance between lower spending and higher taxes to achieve this.This newspaper believes that the lion’s share of the adjustment should come on the spending side.Entitlements are at the root of the problem and need to be trimmed, and research has shown that although spending cuts weigh on growth in the short run, they hurt less than higher taxes.And in the long run later retirement and other reforms will expand the labour force and thus potential output, whereas higher taxes dull incentives to work and invest.解决问题的前提是奥巴马必须同国会达成共识，目标是将社会需求造成的美国政府债保持在可控的水平内；比如2020年达到GDP的60%。同时还要在减少支出和增加税收上形成一致意见，以便寻求二者之间的大体平衡。本刊认为调整的重头戏是在支出方面。社保支出是问题的根源，需要进行削减；尽管研究表明削减支出在短期内会影响到经济增长，但对经济造成的伤害却远不及税收增加。从长期来看，延长退休年龄及其他改革举措必将扩张劳动力大军，进而增加潜在产出；但高税收弱化了工作的激励机制，同时使投资热情也大大衰退。

America’s tax system is riddled with exemptions, deductions and credits that feed an industry of advisers but sap economic energy.Simply scrapping these distortions—in other words, broadening the base of taxation without any new taxes—could bring in some $1 trillion a year.Even though some of this would have to go in lowering marginal rates, it is a little like finding money behind the sofa cushions.The tax system would be simpler, fairer and more efficient.All this means that America can sensibly aim for a balance between spending cuts and higher taxes similar to the benchmark set by Britain’s coalition government.A ratio of 75:25 is about right.美国的税收体系给税收豁免、税收扣减和信贷留了许多开口，这不仅养活了整个顾问行业，还消耗了经济的整体能量。每年仅仅为了冲抵这些差异（换而言之，没有新税种增加的情况下增加税收基础）就要耗费一万亿美元。为了实现这个目的不得不降低边际税率，但多少有点儿像在沙发垫子后面寻找钱财。税收体系将会更加简单、公平和高效。所有这些意味着美国可以理智的在职出削减和提高税收之间找到平衡，类似于英国联合政府设定的基准。75:25差不多就是正确的比例了。

Mr Obama and the Republicans are brimming with ideas for freezing discretionary spending, which covers most government operations from defence to national parks.They have found common cause in attacking “earmarks”, the pet projects that lawmakers insert into bills.But discretionary outlays, including defence, are less than 40% of the total budget.Entitlements, in particular Social Security(pensions)and Medicare and Medicaid(health care for the elderly and the poor), represent the bulk of spending and even more of spending growth.奥巴马和共和党人都热衷于冻结机动支出的理念，这涵盖了从国防到国家公园的大部分政府部门。他们已经将声讨“特定用途之处”作为共同事业，这正是法律制定者们梦寐以求的计划。问题在于包括国防在内的机动支出仅占总预算的40%。社保支在支出中的权重很高，增长幅度也比较大；特别是社会保障（养老金）、医疗保险和医疗补助制度（针对老年人和贫困人群的健康保障计划）。

Health-care spending is a much tougher issue, because it is being fed by both the ageing of the population and rising per-person demand for services.Richer beneficiaries should pay more of their share of Medicare, while the generosity of the system should be kept in check by the independent panel set up under Mr Obama’s health reform to monitor services and payments.The simplest way for the federal government to restrain Medicaid would be to end the current system of matching state spending and replace this with block grants, which would give the states an incentive to focus on cost-control.健康保障支出方面的问题要麻烦得多，因为人口老龄化现象和增高的人均服务需求共同促进了这项支出的增长。富裕的受益者应该为他们的医疗保险付出更多，同时保障体系的恩惠必须长期受都独立委员会的监察，该组织成立于奥巴马的健康改革过程中，指责是对服务和各项支付进行监督。联邦政府也有简单易行的方法来限制医疗补助制度的开销：取消各州相同的现行体系，代之以分类财政补贴，此举可以激励各州政府关注与支出控制。

Chainsaw you can believe in 电锯绝对值得信赖

Devising a plan that reduces the deficit, and eventually the debt, to a manageable size is relatively easy.Getting politicians to agree to it is a different thing.The bitter divide between the parties means that politicians pay a high price for consorting with the enemy.So Democrats cling to entitlements, and Republicans live in fear of losing their next party nomination to a tea-party activist if they bend on taxes.Even the president’s own bipartisan commission can’t agree on what to do.设计方案来压缩目前的赤字、并最终缩减债务，使其达到可控的水平是非常容易的。困难的事让政客们同意这个方案。两党分歧之痛意味着政敌间的结交需要高昂的代价。因此民主党人紧抓社保支出；如果共和党人专注于税收变革，就会终日担心在下次党内选举中败给茶党。即使总统的两党工作组也无法决定下一步的举措。

Britain and France need each other to continue as great(ish)powers 英国和法国要想继续保持其全球大国（或准大国）的地位，两国就必须牢牢捆在一起

Nov 4th 2010 2010年11月4日

表1:防务能力的混合与重组

英国

法国

2009年国防预算 583亿美元 639亿美元

武装部队总人数 17.8万人 25万人

航空母舰 2艘 1艘

驱逐舰 6艘 11艘

护卫舰 17艘 20艘

攻击型潜艇 7艘

6艘

作战飞机 300架 360架

武装直升机 233架 246架

战略导弹核潜艇 4艘 4艘

数据来源: ⅡSS；DASA/MOD：经济学人杂志社

The two countries will jointly develop nuclear-submarine technologies, satellite communications and maritime-mine countermeasures.The big defence industries of both will be encouraged to co-operate on the next generation of surveillance drones and assorted new missiles, with the aim of forging a single prime European contractor for “complex weapons”.两国将联合研发核潜艇技术，联合发展卫星通信和反水雷战的能力。将鼓励两国的大型国防工业企业合作研发新一代的无人侦察机和各种新型导弹，目标是要打造单一的“复杂武器系统”欧洲总承包商。

Most dramatically, a separate treaty has been signed on nuclear co-operation.This is remarkable, given the different approaches that France and Britain have taken towards their nuclear deterrents(Britain depends heavily on American kit, while France’s force de frappe is a supreme symbol of national sovereignty).With the blessing of the United States, Britain’s Aldermaston research establishment will concentrate on developing technology, while its French counterpart at Valduc will carry out simulated warhead testing.最有戏剧性的是，两国还签订了一个单独的核合作条约。考虑到英法两国在构建核威慑力量上的不同做法，这一点颇为引人注目。（英国的核武系统严重依赖美国提供的装备，而法国的核攻击力则是其国家主权的最高象征）。由于有美国盟友的帮助，英国的奥尔德玛斯顿研究机构可以专注于研发技术，而法国位于瓦尔杜克（Valduc）的核研究机构就必须进行核弹头的模拟试验。

Predictably, there was much harrumphing in Britain’s jingoistic popular press.A few retired politicians were dragged out to reminisce about slights suffered at the hands of the perfidious Frogs.The reaction in France was more muted, perhaps because the agreement carefully avoids any of the visionary language about European architectures that excites French imaginations, but which many British Conservatives, such as the defence secretary, Liam Fox, viscerally loathe.可以预见，在支持强硬外交政策的英国大众媒体上会出现一片不满和反对之声。还会拖出几个退休赋闲的政客来追忆背信弃义的法国佬在过去给英国带来的小小不快。法国的反应则要温和的多，原因也许是该协议小心翼翼地回避了对欧洲架构的预见性表述。只要提起欧洲架构就会激起法国人的想象力，但许多英国保守党人，如国防部长利亚姆?福克斯（Liam Fox）之流，就发自内心地厌恶之。

In fact, most of the objections raised seem either ignorant or anachronistic.Even before France rejoined NATO’s integrated military structure last year, British and French forces had frequently worked and fought together under the command of one or other country.With the exception of the Iraq controversy, the two have rarely found themselves on opposite sides during recent international crises.For example, Britain’s defence secretary during the Falklands war, John Nott, revealed in his memoirs that France had been Britain’s staunchest ally, providing information that helped to render the Exocet anti-ship missiles used by Argentina ineffective, and supplying Mirage and Super-Etendard fighters for British Harrier pilots to pit themselves against in training.事实上，大多数持反对观点的人似乎要么是无知，要么就是落伍于时代。甚至在法国去年重返北约军事一体化架构之前，英法两国的军队就已经频繁地在对方指挥下共同工作和作战。除了伊拉克战争的论战之外，两国在最近出现的国际危机中很少出现对立。例如，英国在马岛战争期间的国防部长约翰?诺特（John Nott）就在他的回忆录中透露，法国在这场冲突中是英国最坚定的盟友，法国提供的情报使阿根廷的飞鱼反舰导弹收效甚微，法国还提供“幻影”和“超军旗”式战斗机供英国的鹞式战斗机飞行员进行对抗训练。

Difficulties could arise, however, over shared use of the two countries’ aircraft carriers, if national priorities and policies do not coincide during future conflicts.One solution would be for Britain not to sell the second carrier it is currently building, which at present seems its likely fate, but to operate it on a timeshare basis with the French.That way it could be made available without caveats to whichever country needed it when its main ship was in refit(a three-year job required every seven years or so).Just don’t call it Trafalgar.然而共用两国的航母的话，在未来可能爆发的冲突中如果出现国家利益优先和对外政策不相一致的情况，就可能会出现困难。一个解决办法就是英国不卖第二艘在建的航母（目前看来它可能面临胎死腹中的命运），而是与法国分时共享这艘航母。这样一来就可以在其航母整修期间（大约每航行七年左右要有三年时间进行整修），哪个国家需要它都可以不受限制的进行使用。但绝对不要把它命名为“特拉法尔加”号。

The liquefaction of hardware 硬件熔解

The rise of the virtual computer 虚拟计算机兴起

Nov 18th 2010

Thanks to a process called “virtualisation”, such computers are now being created.Ever more processing power and clever software are allowing devices of all kinds to separate from their hardware vessels and move to new homes.If this process continues as some expect, it will change computing radically.And more than one IT company will have to rethink how it does business.多亏一种称为“虚拟化”的技术，这种电脑正被制造出来。处理能力日益强大，聪明软件越来越多，正让各种设备从所在的硬件容器中剥离出来，迁入新居。如若虚拟化进程，像某些人所料那般持续下去，就将从根本上改变计算机运作。而多家IT公司将不得不重新考虑，如何运用该技术做生意。

Virtualisation dates back to the age of mainframe computers.To make better use of them they were sometimes split into smaller “virtual machines”, each of which could run its own operating system and application.But the approach took off only in recent years, when VMWare, a software firm, applied it to servers, the powerful computers that populate today’s corporate data centres.VMWare and its main rivals, Citrix and Microsoft, have since developed all kinds of software tools to manage virtual machines—moving them between data centres, for example.虚拟化始于大型机时代。为优化利用，大型机有时被分割成一些小型“虚拟机”，每个虚拟机都能运行自己的操作系统及应用软件。但此法近几年突然风行，当时，一家软件公司VMWare将其运用到服务器上，正是这些功能强大的服务器，构成了今天的企业数据中心。VMWare及其主要对手Citrix和Microsoft，那时起就开发了各种虚拟机管理软件工具，比如让虚拟机在数据中心间迁移的软件。

The success of server virtualisation has inspired IT firms and their customers to do the same thing with other types of hardware, such as devices to store data.Software now pools their capacity and allocates “virtual disks” as needed.Going further, Dropbox, an online storage service, saves identical files only once.Even large files can take only seconds to upload if they already exist somewhere on one of these firms’ disks.服务器虚拟化的成功，启发IT公司及其顾客在其他类型的硬件（如数据存储设备）上，做同样的事。现在，软件可共用这些设备的存储容量，并按需分配“虚拟磁盘”。进一步来说，一种网络存储服务Dropbox，同一份文件仅存一次。即便是大文件，只要已存在这些公司某个磁盘的某处，上传也只需数秒。

In the long run, smartphones and other mobile devices may also become shells to be filled as needed.Open Kernel Labs, a start-up in which Citrix has a stake, already lets smartphones run applications, multimedia and radio functions on a single processor, cutting manufacturing costs.Software from Citrix turns the iPad, Apple’s tablet computer, into a terminal for applications that run in a corporate data centre.终究，智能电话与其他设备也可能变成空壳，按需填充各种软件数据。一家Citrix持股的新兴企业Open Kernel Labs，已使智能电话在一个单处理机上运行应用软件、实现多媒体及收音机功能，削减了制造成本。Citrix的软件，把苹果的平板电脑iPad，变成了一个应用软件终端，而这些软件运行在一个企业数据中心内。

Yet the technology also has to overcome a few hurdles.The virtualisation of servers is well understood, but for PCs and mobile devices the technique has yet to mature.In the longer run institutional barriers will prove more of a problem, argues Simon Crosby, Citrix’s chief technology officer.Virtualising IT systems, he says, is only the first step to automating their management.This is seen as a threat to existing workers and makes many IT departments hesitant to embrace the technology.然而，该技术还须攻克几个障碍。服务器虚拟化，大家都很清楚，但对个人电脑及移动设备而言，该技术尚未成熟。Citrix公司首席技术官Simon Crosby表示，从更长远来看，制度障碍也将证实是个问题。他称，IT系统虚拟化仅是其管理自动化的第一步。这被在职员工视为一个威胁，令许多IT部门接受这种技术犹豫不决。Still, analysts believe virtualisation will win out.Its impact will be felt through the industry.The technology not only makes IT systems more flexible, but allows firms to switch vendors more easily—which will weigh on the vendors’ profits.Big software firms such as Microsoft and Oracle may be hit hardest.But many hardware-makers may suffer as well, since their wares will become even more of a commodity than they are today.尽管如此，分析家认为虚拟化将最终胜出。整个IT业都将感受到其影响。该技术不仅使IT系统更为灵活，也让企业更换销售商更为容易，这将给这些销售商盈利造成压力。诸如Microsoft及Oracle之类的软件巨头可能受打击最重。但许多硬件制造商，由于其产品将变成比现在更有价值的一种商品，也可能遭受重创。

What’s up, BYOC?（注1）“自带电脑”如何？

Moreover, virtualisation makes it much easier to add new servers or storage devices.Alternatively, firms can simply rent extra capacity from operators of what are called “computing clouds”, such as Amazon Web Services.That outfit has built a network of data centres in which virtual machines and disks can be launched in seconds.As a result, IT systems will increasingly no longer be a capital expense（注2）, but an operational cost（注3）, like electricity.此外，虚拟化使得增添新服务器或存储设备非常容易。如若不然，企业也能简单地从所谓的“计算云”运营商（如Amazon Web Services公司）那租用额外磁盘容量。这家厂商已建立了一个数据中心网络，其中的虚拟机及磁盘能在数秒内启动。结果，IT系统愈来愈不是一种资本支出，而是一种运营成本，跟电力一样。

Yet the most noticeable change for computer users will be that more employees will be allowed to bring their own PC or smartphone to work, says Brian Madden of TechTarget, a consultancy.Companies can install a secure virtual heart on private machines, doing away with the need for a separate corporate device.A “bring your own computer” or “BYOC” movement has already emerged in America.Companies such as Citrix and Kraft Foods pay their employees a stipend, which they can use to buy any PC they want—even an Apple Mac.然而，电脑用户感受到的最显著变化，则是更多雇员将获准携带自己的个人电脑或智能电话工作，一家咨询公司TechTarget的Brian Madden这样说。企业可在私人机器上安装一个可靠的虚拟心脏，这也摆脱了对企业设备的单独需求。一种“自带电脑”或“BYOC”运动已在美国出现。像Citrix和Kraft Foods这样的公司，付给雇员津贴，让他们用其购买想要的任何电脑，甚或苹果Mac电脑。

Such innovations may help to ease growing tensions between workers and IT departments.New privacy regulations and rampant cybercrime are pushing firms to tighten control of company PCs and smartphones.At the same time more and more “digital natives（注4）” enter the workforce.They have grown up with the freewheeling internet and do not suffer boring black corporate laptops gladly.Giving workers more freedom while helping firms keep control may prove to be the biggest benefit of virtualisation.这类创新或许有助于缓解员工与IT部门间日益紧张的关系。新的隐私规则出台，网络犯罪猖獗，正推动企业加强对公司个人电脑与智能电话的管控。与此同时，越来越多的“数码原住民”步入职场。他们与无拘无束的互联网一起长大成人，很高兴不用忍受单调乏味的公司黑笔记本电脑。给予员工更多自由，同时协助企业管控，或许证明是虚拟化的最大收益。

注1：What’s up, BYOC? 小标题源自美国1972年出品的电影“What’s up, Doc?”，中文片名一般译为《爱的大追踪》，或“出什么事了，大夫？ / 疯狂飞车大闹唐人街 / 爱的大逃亡”。

注2：capital expense Capital Spending/Capital Expenditures/Capital Expense 资本支出

某些支出—如购置厂房、机器、设备等—可以使以后多个会计受益而非当年消耗完毕，这种支出形成的企业的生产能力，称为资本支出(capital expenditures)。当一个企业花钱购买固定资产或给已有固定资产增加价值时，这就产生了资本支出。在会计中，把支出记作资产的办法，称为资本化。

由于税收的目的，资本支出不能在它们被支付或发生的扣除成本，并且必须被资本化。一般的规则是，如果收购的物业的使用年限超过纳税的年限，成本必须被资本化。资本开支成本会在以上资产的使用时期被分期偿还或贬值。如上所述，资本支出给资产或财产创造或增加了基准，而一旦资本支出调整，将决定出售或转让时的税务责任。

1.直接材料：包括企业生产经营过程中实际消耗的直接用于产品的生产，构成产品实体的原材料、辅助材料、备品备件、外购半成品、燃料、动力、包装物以及其他直接材料。2.直接工资：包括企业直接从事产品生产人员的工资、奖金、津贴和补贴。3.其他直接支出：包括直接从事产品生产人员的职工福利费等。

4.制造费用：企业可以根据自身需要，对成本构成项目进行适当调整。

注4：digital natives 从80年代就开始接触PC的人，现在通常都已过不惑之年。90年代中国PC进入普及阶段的用户，现在也都30出头。这些人经历了模拟时代(机械时代)的种种生活方式和工具，他们试着去转变自己的使用习惯和思维方式，这些人可称为“数字移民(Digital Immigrants)”。然而1985年之后出生的人，则大不相同：他们成长的年代，已经是数字化的年代。他们属于天生数字(Born Digital)，而且习惯且依赖连接世界(Live Connected)。这类人称为第一代“数字原住民(Digital Native)”。A digital native is a person who was born after the general implementation of digital technology, and as a result, has had a familiarity with digital technologies such as computers, the Internet, mobile phones,and digital audio players over their entire lives.A digital immigrant is an individual who was born before the existence of digital technology and adopted it to some extent later.Alternatively, this term can describe people born in the latter 1970s or later, as the Digital Age began at that time;but in most cases the term focuses on people who grew up with 21st Century technology.This term has been used in several different contexts, such as education(Bennett, Maton & Kervin 2008)(in association with the term New Millennium Learners(OECD 2008)).More complicated than you think 比你想象的复杂

A new, giant virus is confounding old certainties 新的、巨型病毒正在挑战人类的思维定势 Oct 28th 2010

In that context, the discovery by Curtis Suttle of the University of British Columbia and his colleagues of a critter they propose to call Cafeteria roenbergensis virus, or CroV, should not be surprising.But for those brought up on a textbook definition of what a virus is, it is still a bit of a shock.For CroV is not a very viruslike virus.It has 544 genes, compared with the dozen or so that most viruses sport.And it may be able to make its own proteins—a task that viruses usually delegate to the molecular machinery of the cells they infect.从这个意义上讲，英属哥伦比亚大学的Curtis Suttle和他的同事发现的一种新生物，不应该太出人意料。他们建议将其命名为Cafeteria roenbergensis病毒，或CroV。但是对于那些从小到大就熟悉课本对病毒的定义的人而言，这还是让人有点儿让他们震惊。因为CroV是一种不太象病毒的病毒。它有544个基因，而大多数病毒只有十几个。此外，它还可能制造自己的蛋白质—而病毒通常将这一任务交给自己感染的细胞由其通过分子机械功能来完成。CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988.Despite the recentness of its discovery, C.roenbergensis is one of the commonest creatures on the planet.It is also reckoned by some, given that it hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator on Earth.It is found in every ocean.The samples of C.roenbergensis from which Dr Suttle and his team extracted their quarry were collected off the coast of Texas.CroV，正如其名字所表示的一样，是Cafeteria roenbergensis的一种寄生虫，而前者则是一种人们于1988年发现的以浮游生物为食的单细胞生物。尽管其发现历史不长，Cafeteria roenbergensis是我们这个星球上最常见的物种之一。此外，由于它猎杀、捕食其他细菌，有人据此推断它是地球上数量最多的捕食者。各大洋都能见到其身影。Scuttle和他的团队从中发现CroV的Cafeteria roenbergensis的样品就是来自德州海岸的海水。

To see a world in a grain of sand 从一粒沙子看到一个世界

That quarry’s nature, reported this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is not a complete surprise.A larger virus, called Mimivirus, which lives in freshwater amoebas, turned up in 2003 and a few other, similar, viruses have been found since then.But CroV is by far the biggest to come out of the sea.本周的《美国国家科学院院刊》报道了这一新发现病毒的性质，这也并非完全出人意料。因为另一个比较大称为“Mimivirus”的病毒，是一种生活在淡水中变形虫，在2003年就被人发现，还有其他几个类似的病毒之后也相继被人发现。但是CroV是来自海洋的最大的病毒。

About a third of CroV’s genes are similar to Mimivirus genes, suggesting they share a distant ancestor.On the other hand, two-thirds are not.A significant chunk of them seem to have been copied from bacteria.But the majority are unique, and previously unknown to science.A whole new chapter of life, in other words, has been opened.CroV的基因中，约有三分之一同Mimivirus基因类似，说明它们之间都拥有共同的祖先。从另一方面讲，它们之间还有三分之二的基因不同。其中很大一部分似乎是从细菌中复制的。但大多数基因在科学上特性明显，属于新发现的基因。换句话说，人类已经翻开了生命研究的新篇章。

Science and Technology

译者心得：

2.几个词汇的处理。首句中的“matter”很多人译为“事情”，“是关于什么什么的事情”，这样的译文读起来很罗嗦，其实担子大一些，置之不理，中文意思也出来了。另外，“Viruses have genes, can reproduce and are subject to the evolutionary pressures imposed by natural selection.That is enough for biology to claim them”本段中的“Claim”不太好翻，for biology to claim them，让生物学对它们有主张，让生物学认领它们，其实就是“它们有资格属于生物范畴”的意思，如果直译，估计译者本人也觉得不是滋味。

3.一个复杂句子的处理。“In that context, the discovery by Curtis Suttle of the University of British Columbia and his colleagues of a critter they propose to call Cafeteria roenbergensis virus, or CroV, should not be surprising”，先看一下直翻，“从这个意义上讲，由英属哥伦比亚大学的Curtis Suttle和他的同事发现的一种他们建议命名为Cafeteria roenbergensis 病毒的生物，或CroV，不应该太出人意料。”这样的句子不能说不对，但但起来非常罗嗦，翻译腔太强，因此，在准确表述愿意的前提下，我译为“从这个意义上讲，英属哥伦比亚大学的Curtis Suttle和他的同事发现的一种新生物，不应该太出人意料。他们建议将其命名为Cafeteria roenbergensis病毒，或CroV。”将原句拆为两句，使其更符合中文行文习惯。这在翻译中很常见，毕竟译出的东西是让中国人看的。

4.一个简单句型的处理。“It is found in every ocean”，这句话很简单，它被发现于各大洋，它存在于各大洋等等，都不错。但鉴于前文出现“hunts down and eats bacteria, to be the most abundant predator ”这类动作性很强的语句，我们不妨在这里也“生动”一些，译为“各大洋都能见到其身影”。

5.关于逻辑性。翻译其实就是理解外语的逻辑性，然后将其外语按照译入语的逻辑性进行翻译。本文中CroV和Cafeteria roenbergensis什么关系？不要被名字吓倒，注意这句“CroV, as its full name suggests, is a parasite of Cafeteria roenbergensis, a single-celled planktonic organism that was itself discovered only in 1988”，说得是CroV其实是寄生在Cafeteria roenbergensis上的一种生物，是宿主身上的一种病毒。关系弄清了，下文接着讲的都是宿主Cafeteria roenbergensis的事情，它们如何捕食，生存在什么地方。这其实也就间接介绍了CroV。

6.名言警句的引用。《经济学人》的文章经常不经意间引用一些名言警句、诗词歌赋，恰当地表述其意义。本文不例外。“To see a world in a grain of sand”在本文中就有类似中文“麻雀虽小，五脏俱全”的意思，即使是一粒沙子，那上面生存着芸芸众生。建议大家看一部动画片，“Horton hears a who”，里边讲的是一头大象如何同一朵蒲公英上的生命群体沟通的故事。这句话来自英国诗人William Blake的一首诗： “A Grain of Sand 一粒沙子

总之，翻译需要什么都懂，否则译出的东西要么让人如坠五里雾中，要么让人笑掉大牙，因此，译完之后，多次校对，是必不可少的步骤。

Raúl the pragmatist 实用主义者劳尔

Bold changes intended to preserve Cuban communism may herald the beginning of its end 旨在保护古巴共产主义的大胆变革反而有可能变成了掘墓人

Nov 11th 2010

SHORTLY after he took charge of Cuba from his ailing brother, Fidel, in 2006, Raúl Castro declared that his country’s moribund communist economy needed to change.But his failure to make anything more than marginal adjustments disappointed hopes that he would follow Chinese and Vietnamese communist leaders in combining capitalist economics and growing social freedom with continued party control.劳尔.卡斯特罗2006年从他罹病的兄长—菲德尔卡.斯特罗手中接过了执掌古巴的大权，不久之后他宣称祖国的经济处于垂死边缘，亟需改变。但他最大的失败在于只进行不管痛痒的调整，这让人们的期望大大落空；大家原以为他可以效法中国和越南的共产党领导者，将资本主义经济及日益增长的社会自由性与党的持续控制有效的结合在一起。

This week Mr Castro convened a much-postponed Congress of the Communist Party for late April: its job will be to bless the new economic model(see article).Meanwhile, the government has released more than 50 political prisoners.Two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, is Cuban communism finally on the way out? 本周卡斯特罗先生召开了从4月底一直推迟到现在的共产党代表大会，会议的主旨是批准全新的经济模式歌；与此同时，政府已经释放了超过50名政治犯。在柏林墙倒塌20年后的今天，难道古巴共产主义最终还是难逃过时的命数？

Any answer must be hedged about with caveats.The economists advising Mr Castro are barred from talking of “reform”.In its guidelines for the party congress, the leadership declares that “only socialism [ie, communism] is capable of overcoming our difficulties and preserving the gains of the revolution” and that in the new economy “planning will be paramount, not the market.” No Cuban official has matched Deng Xiaoping’s embrace of “market socialism”, let alone his(perhaps apocryphal)injunction that “to get rich is glorious”.The welcome release of prisoners seems merely to have been a move to deflect outside criticism after the death of one of them in a hunger strike, rather than a first step in dismantling the island’s police state.Indeed the army is playing a bigger role in the economy and in government.任何答案都必须谨小慎微。给卡斯特罗先生提供咨询的经济学家们被禁止谈论改革。领导在会议纲领中指示“只有社会主义，暨共产主义才有能力克服当前的艰难困苦，并保持革命取得的胜利果实”；同时还指出，在新经济模式中“占据最高地位的是计划，而不是市场”。没有一个古巴官员可以达到邓小平的高度，领悟到“社会主义市场”的真谛，更不必说他“致富最光荣”的命令了（也许这是杜撰出来的）。在一名囚徒因绝食斗争送命后，深受欢迎的释放囚犯行为似乎只是为了转移外界的批判，而非迈出了废除本岛极权国家的第一步。实际上军界才是在经济和政府中更为重要的角色。

Yet Raúl’s reforms go much further than Fidel’s reluctant acceptance of foreign investment and limited self-employment after the collapse of the Soviet Union, partially reversed on the appearance of a new benefactor, Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela.For the first time since the 1960s Cubans will be able to employ other Cubans(even though the constitution bans such “exploitation”).Many of the rules under which these new businesses will operate are still being drawn up.But it seems that Cubans will now be able to get loans and rent and buy property.Other changes are likely to follow.Mr Castro talks of gradually eliminating the free food rations that Cubans get, and moving towards targeted social assistance(as elsewhere in Latin America).The corollary is that wages will have to go up—and increasingly they will be set in the market.苏联解体后，菲德尔极不情愿的接纳了境外投资和有限的自由职业者；然而劳尔的改革比他的兄长深入很多，在委内瑞拉的大恩人查韦斯登台后，部分举措与从前大相径庭。从上世纪60年代至今，尽管宪法禁止这类“剥削”，但古巴人首次可以对本国公民进行雇佣。很多对新型企业的生产经营进行规范的法规还正在规划中；但古巴人似乎已经可以获得贷款、出租房屋以及购买不动产。一些其他的变革也很有可能紧随其后。卡斯特罗提及逐渐取消古巴民众正在获得的免费的食物配给，而是同拉美其他地区一样，向着计划好的社会救济发展。必然出现的结果是工资不得不上调，并且日益受到市场的控制。

In all this Mr Castro is bowing to reality.He has been withering in his criticism of the featherbedding that has bankrupted the state.He has also refused to blame the American economic embargo for problems which he rightly says are self-inflicted.His pragmatism has finally won out against his brother’s doctrinaire Utopianism.卡斯特罗在这些方面都屈从于现实：他对于导致国家破产的额外雇工进行了极尖刻的批判；同时也拒绝对美国采取贸易禁运所造成的问题进行批判，他认为这些问题都是自寻烦恼。在卡斯特罗兄弟的较量中，劳尔的使用主义最终战胜了菲德尔教条的乌托邦主义。

Apart from the economy, the other big task facing Mr Castro, who is 79(and Fidel 84), is to start handing over power to a younger generation.That may come after the party congress next year.In the meantime, his new boldness represents an opportunity for those who hope that Cuba will eventually join the rest of Latin America in accepting democracy and the market economy, for once the market’s green shoots appear they tend to flourish.除了经济问题以外，现年79岁了劳尔（菲德尔已经84岁了）所面临的更艰巨的任务是开始着手将全力传递到年轻一代手中，不过这将是明年党代会以后的事情了。同时，对于那些希望古巴最终可以加入拉美其他国家的行列，接受民主和市场经济的人来说，他果敢的新政代表着希望；只要市场经济出现一抹新绿，必将是一派繁花似锦的景象。

How to help kill communism 怎样搭把手，灭了共产主义

Outsiders should take their lead from the common position that Europe adopted in 1996, which allows it to help in “the progressive and irreversible opening of the Cuban economy” while predicating closer friendship on moves towards democracy.Offering training and credit—as Brazil has done—to Cuba’s incipient private sector would be a good move.Rewarding Cuba for releasing prisoners who should never have been locked up in the first place—as Miguel Moratinos, Spain’s recently sacked foreign minister, wanted—would not.局外人应该从1996年欧洲采用的共同立场中着手，旨在帮助“古巴进行先进且不可逆的经济改革”，同时在走向民主的道路上还能建立日益深厚的友谊。象巴西一样给古巴的早期私营经济提供培训和信贷，不失为一个很好的尝试。如果象最近遭解雇的西班牙外长Miguel Moratinos,所希望的那样，古巴因为释放那些原本就不应该遭到逮捕的犯人而得到奖励，就不是一个好的尝试。

America’s embargo remains as futile and counter-productive as ever.Although Barack Obama has commendably reversed George W.Bush’s restrictions on visits and remittances by Cuban-Americans, Republican control of Congress will make it even less likely that the embargo will be dismantled.That’s a great shame.The embargo has allowed the Castros to pose as proud Cuban nationalists standing up to a bullying hegemon and thus helped them cling to power.If change is at last under way it is despite the embargo, not because of it.美国的贸易禁运一如既往的无效甚至是达到了反效果。奥巴马已经很好的撤销了小布什针对古巴裔美国人实施的拜访及汇款禁令，但共和党掌舵的国会让接触贸易禁运的可能性变得更加渺茫；这将是非常大的遗憾。贸易禁运让卡斯特罗兄弟摆出一副古巴民族主义者的英雄形象，直面恃强凌弱的至高强权；他们更是借此紧握政权。如果说改变正在发生，那这些改变不是因贸易禁运而起，甚至无视它的存在。Lebanon and the region 黎巴嫩与中东地区

Can there be justice as well as stability? 既要正义也要稳定，可能吗？ As the UN prepares to announce indictments for a series of murders and assassinations, the mood in Lebanon is getting edgy 联合国准备宣布针对一系列谋杀案的起诉，黎巴嫩人的心情日渐紧张

Nov 11th 2010 | Cairo

IT IS the strangest of courtroom dramas.Distinguished judges and a prosecutor sit in a sleepy suburb of the Dutch capital, The Hague.The case has plenty of victims: 61 people, including Lebanon’s then prime minister, Rafik Hariri, were murdered and 494 injured in a spree of bombings and assassinations that racked Lebanon from 2004 to 2008.But though the UN-sponsored Special Tribunal for Lebanon has yet to convene or to charge anyone for the crimes, the impending trial threatens not only to reignite a firestorm in Lebanon, but also to spread sectarian tensions across the Middle East and to vex relations even more between the region’s big adversaries, Iran and the United States.If Lebanon were to blow up again, Israel and Syria could well step in once more, turning the current Middle East peace process into a slide back towards war.这是一部最为怪诞的法庭剧。尊贵的法官大人们与检察官坐在荷兰首都海牙郊外昏昏欲睡。此案受害者甚多：从2004至2008年间发生了一系列疯狂的爆炸和暗杀事件，包括黎巴嫩前总理拉菲克?哈里里（Rafik Hariri）在内共有61人被害，494人受伤。这些事件使黎巴嫩陷入痛苦之中。尽管联合国成立了黎巴嫩问题特别法庭，但尚未开庭或指控任何人对上述罪行负责。即将到来的开庭审判不仅可能引燃黎巴嫩国内的火药桶，而且还可能将教派冲突扩散到整个中东地区，对本地区最大的一对冤家——伊朗和美国的关系火上浇油。如果黎巴嫩内战再次爆发，以色列和叙利亚也很有可能再次介入，如此将导致目前的中东和平进程发生逆行，滑向另一场中东战争。

Few foresaw this when the UN Security Council ordered an investigation into the car-bombing of February 2005 in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, when Mr Hariri, a billionaire Sunni who was seeking his sixth turn at running the government, was assassinated along with 22 others.That sparked a furious popular backlash, prompting the exit of Syrian troops who had lingered, increasingly unwanted, to enforce peace after Lebanon’s civil war of 1975-90.Then followed the electoral triumph of Mr Hariri’s pro-Western coalition, known as the March 14th alliance, after the date of a big anti-Syrian demonstration.Many Lebanese, as well as the UN’s first investigating team, assumed that Syria had arranged Mr Hariri’s murder, and expected the case’s swift resolution.2005年2月在黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特发生了一起汽车炸弹爆炸事件，当时伊斯兰逊尼派的亿万富翁哈里里正在寻求第六次就任黎巴嫩总理一职，在这起暗杀中哈里里与其他22人一同遇难。当联合国安理会下令对这起事件进行调查时，没有任何人预见到其后果会如何。这一事件引发了公众愤怒的反应，促使了叙利亚的撤军行动。黎巴嫩于1975至1990年间爆发了内战，叙利亚随后派出了这支维和部队，这支部队尽管愈来愈不受欢迎，但之前一直赖着不走。接着，在随后进行的一场大规模反叙利亚示威游行后，哈里里的亲西方盟友，所谓的“3?14联盟”获得了选战的胜利。许多黎巴嫩人以及联合国派出调查此案的第一个调查团都认为是叙利亚策划了哈里里的谋杀案，并预期此案能够得到迅速解决。

It was not to be.Over the next three years sporadic bombings and shootings targeted prominent backers of the March 14th alliance, Christian areas, and Lebanese officers involved in the investigation.Even as the investigators’ brief widened to include these later attacks, their credibility fell when it emerged that key witnesses implicating Syria had apparently made up their testimony.但这是不可能的。在随后的三年内又陆续出现了几起针对“3?14联盟”支持者中有影响力的人士、基督教派系人士及参与调查此案的黎巴嫩官员的爆炸和枪击事件。正当调查人员们将调查范围扩大到后来的这些袭击事件时，人们对调查小组的信任却下降了。因为此时关键证人暗示叙利亚显然是编造了证词。

Meanwhile, March 14th’s pro-Syrian adversaries, led by Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia party-cum-militia which emerged strengthened from a war with Israel in July 2006, mounted a tenacious and effective campaign to challenge the pro-Western faction.This culminated in an invasion of central Beirut in May 2008 by Hizbullah gunmen that forced March 14th to accept a power-sharing deal.Hizbullah and its allies thereby secured a veto over government decisions but at the cost of deepening the bitter schism that now largely pits Lebanon’s Sunnis and Shias, each with nearly one-third of the population, against each other, and splits the third who are Christian into sparring factions backing one side or another.此时，“3?14联盟”的对手，由真主党领导的亲叙利亚的黎巴嫩什叶派政党暨民兵组织通过2006年7月与以色列的一场战争而强大起来，他们展开了一场挑战亲西方派别的顽强而有效的运动。这场夺权运动的高潮出现在2008年5月，真主党武装人员闯入贝鲁特市中心，用武力迫使“3?14联盟”接受一项权力分享协议。真主党及其盟友从而获得了对政府所作决定的否决权，但其代价是加深了教派的分裂，使黎巴嫩的逊尼派和什叶派间的深沟难以与逾越。这两个派系各占有黎巴嫩近1/3的人口，双方水火不相容，并使黎巴嫩另1/3信仰基督教的人口也分裂成两派，他们支持伊斯兰派系的一方或另一方，争吵不休。

Since then, as the tribunal’s work has dragged on, many Lebanese have grown weary of the whole process.Lately, this weariness has turned to alarm.The court is expected to issue an indictment soon.Leaks strongly suggest it will not accuse Syria but rather senior officers of Hizbullah itself.The implications of such a charge are explosive.The party has long exalted its role as a heroic protector of Lebanon, justifying its impressive arsenal on the grounds, however implausible to outsiders, that its weapons are trained solely on Israeli invaders and not fellow Lebanese.自那以后，随着特别法庭的开庭审判一拖再拖，许多黎巴嫩人已经对整个过程感到了厌倦。最近，这种厌倦的情绪变得让人吃惊。预计该法庭很快就会签发一项起诉书。据透漏出的消息，这份起诉书很可能不会指控叙利亚，而将指控真主党高级官员为暗杀事件的主谋。这样一份起诉书将产生爆炸性的后果。真主党长期以来一直自封为的黎巴嫩英勇的保护者，将之作为维持其庞大武装的冠冕堂皇的理由，但外人难以相信其枪口只是对准以色列侵略者而不是黎巴嫩同胞的说法。

Along with Hizbullah’s devoted followers, many non-Shias readily accept such arguments.But should Hizbullah be proven to have mounted a systematic campaign of extermination against Sunni Muslim and Christian political opponents in Lebanon, the party’s reputation would be severely damaged, along with that of its main backer, Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, made a recent festively triumphant visit to Lebanon.与真主党的忠实追随者一道，许多非什叶派黎巴嫩人也准备接受这种说法。真主党策划了针对黎巴嫩逊尼派穆斯林及基督教政治对手的系统消灭行动一旦获得证实，该党连同其主要后台——伊朗的声望都将受到严重损害。伊朗总统内贾德最近刚刚结束了黎巴嫩节日一般喜气洋洋的访问。

Mr Hariri’s son Saad, who now leads March 14th as Lebanon’s prime minister, has quietly reassured Hizbullah that he would publicly insist that any of its members implicated in the killings would be considered merely rogue actors.Conveniently also, the man most widely believed to have orchestrated the killings is dead.Imad Mughniyeh, well known since being implicated in bombings and hostage-takings during Lebanon’s civil war, headed Hizbullah’s special operations forces, and was a key link to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard before his unexplained assassination in Damascus in February 2008.Curiously, the killings in Lebanon stopped abruptly at the same time.哈里里的儿子萨阿德现在是“3?14联盟”的领导人，也是黎巴嫩现任总理，他私下向真主党保证他将公开坚持其观点，即任何与这起暗杀事件有牵连的真主党成员都将被视为仅仅是制造了一起无赖行为。更便当的是，人们普遍认为是精心策划了这起暗杀事件的人已经死了。伊迈德?穆尼耶（Imad Mughniyeh）是真主党特种作战部队的首脑，也是真主党同伊朗革命卫队保持联系的一个关键人物，他以黎巴嫩内战期间制造了一系列爆炸和劫持人质事件而臭名昭著，2008年2月他在发生在大马士革的一场难以解释的暗杀中身亡。令人奇怪的是，同一时间内黎巴嫩的暗杀事件突然停止了。

But Hizbullah, apparently confident in its strength, rejects any suggestion of its involvement.Instead, its leaders have attacked the tribunal with growing vigour, accusing it of being an American tool and of ignoring purported evidence of Israel’s hand in the killings.In Beirut last month party loyalists posing as a pack of angry veiled women scratched, punched and bit members of a team from the UN investigation in southern Beirut.Hizbullah leaders followed this staged provocation with denunciations of the UN’s supposed affront to the virtue of Lebanese womanhood, declaring that henceforth any co-operation with the tribunal would be equated to collaboration with the “Zionist enemy”.真主党显然是对自身实力信心满满，拒绝接受任何它参与了谋杀的指控。相反，其领导人攻击特别法庭的调门不断升高，指责该法庭为美国的工具，对传说中以色列制造了这起谋杀的证据不予采信。上个月在贝鲁特，一群真主党的支持者扮成蒙着面纱的愤怒妇女，对来自贝鲁特南部的联合国调查人员是又挠又咬又打。真主党领导人在这起挑衅事件后谴责联合国调查人员冒犯了黎巴嫩妇女的高贵操守，声称今后任何与特别法庭的合作行为都将被视为与“犹太复国主义敌人”同流合污。

The party’s allies have made a noisy issue of the initial false testimony cited by investigators and long since discarded, in an effort to discredit the entire judicial process.More ominously, voices sympathetic to Hizbullah whisper that its militia, widely seen as far tougher than Lebanon’s ill-equipped conscript army, is ready to take swift control of ports, borders and main cities.Such a move might well provoke Israeli generals, whose itch to tame the Shia party is as intense as it was when they launched their fierce but inconclusive war in 2006, after a spat between Hizbullah and an Israeli border patrol.真主党的盟友们抓住调查人员最初采信了伪证的问题小题大做，闹得沸沸扬扬。其实这个伪证被废弃已久，他们这样做的目的无非是千方百计想抹黑整个司法调查过程。更严重的是，真主党的同情者们透漏说，真主党民兵武装正在准备采取行动以迅速控制黎巴嫩的港口、边境和主要城市。真主党民兵武装的实力远远超过黎巴嫩装备低劣的正规军，这已经成了人们的普遍看法。此举很可能会激怒以色列的将军们，他们对驯服什叶派武装的冲动与发动2006年那场战争时同样强烈。那场战争的起因是真主党武装与以色列边境巡逻队间出现的摩擦。战争的过程非常惨烈，但无果而终。

In Lebanon’s polarised landscape Hizbullah’s large core of loyalists is unlikely to be shaken, even by firm evidence of the party’s involvement in the killing of Mr Hariri and others.Some of its allies, however, especially in the Christian camp, may prove less immune to repulsion.For such a small country, even one with such a violent past, 555 dead and wounded is a big number.Lebanese nerves are jangling.在黎巴嫩泾渭分明的政治版图中，即使有明确的证据证实真主党卷入了暗杀哈里里和其他人的行动，真主党的大批核心支持者也不太可能出现动摇。然而真主党的一些盟友，尤其是基督教派营垒中的盟友，也许会因此而出现离心的倾向。对于黎巴嫩这样一个小国，即使过去暴力事件不断，555人的死伤也绝对不是一个小数目。这件事正在刺激着黎巴嫩人的神经。

Pros clicking at war An American firm wants to turn computer games into a global spectator sport

电脑游戏

职业选手的鼠标大战

一家美国公司试图将电脑游戏变成世界级的观赏性体育项目

Oct 28th 2010

Arriving for a big e-sports match参加电竞大赛

THE first round is over and 32 of the world’s best professional computer-game players are through to the next stage of the Global Starcraft 2 League being played in Seoul, South Korea.Over the next two weeks the players, including the reigning champion, Kim Won-ki(better known by his online moniker “FruitDealer”), will marshal their armies, ponder their strategies and crush their foes.The finalists will play in front of an audience of thousands(and hundreds of thousands more online)for an $87,000 first prize and the respect due the best Starcraft 2 player on the planet.第一轮比赛硝烟落定，世界上最优秀的32名职业电脑游戏选手登上了新的舞台，参加在韩国首尔举行的星际争霸2世界联赛。卫冕冠军金宏基（大家更熟悉他在线上使用的ID“水果贩子”）也在这批选手当中。在接下来的两周时间里，他们将运筹帷幄，挥师征战，直指敌酋。进入决赛的选手将在数千名观众（以及数以十万计的在线观众）面前争夺8.7万美元的奖金，以及全世界最好的星际2选手这一头衔。

South Korean fans watch games broadcast on cable television and the players are celebrities.Teams flush with sponsorship money pay stars salaries on top of their prize money.(One player, Lee Yoon-Yeol, aka “Nada”, is rumoured to earn around $200,000 a year;a journeyman player might make $20,000).Now Activision Blizzard, the California-based company that developed the Starcraft games, is keen to spread the popularity of e-sports in the West.韩国的电竞爱好者通过有线电视观看比赛，电竞选手也都成了名人。战队通过赞助商筹集资金，再按照获得的奖金为明星玩家发薪水。据称，绰号Nada的选手李云龙每年大约能赚20万美元，而一位新人选手也差不多能拿2万美元左右。星际争霸的开发者，总部位于加州的动视-暴雪公司正致力于在西方提升电子竞争的流行度。

in mind and has flown famous Korean players to America to play an exhibition match.GomTV, the Korean firm that runs the league, is providing English commentary on games and it has opened the tournament to any non-Korean player that can manage to qualify.这种努力是否能够获得成果？职业电子竞争在西方也已经开展了不少年头了，在欧洲有电子体育联赛（ESL），美国则有游戏大联盟（MLG），然而其发展程度始终没有达到韩国的水平。动视-暴雪认为，随着宽频网络的发展，在网络上转播比赛会变得更加容易，这种局面也会随之改变。在星际争霸2的设计中，公司始终以竞技性为核心理念，还邀请韩国选手到美国打了一场表演赛。韩国方面负责运营这次表演赛的GomTV公司提供了英文解说，并表示支持所有非韩国选手参加预选赛。

Advertisers are attracted by the ability of e-sports to target an audience with plenty of spending money;Sony Ericsson is sponsoring the tournament in Seoul.The average American gamer is in his 30s and well-educated.With sponsorship comes the money necessary to attract players to pursue computer gaming as a career, says Sean Plott(better known as “Day[9]”), an American player-turned-commentator.Intel recently sponsored a European tournament with a $15,000 prize pool.Perhaps the biggest obstacle to exporting e-sports to the West is a lingering belief that playing computer games is not a proper job—an idea that would no doubt sound familiar to pioneers of professional sports from tennis to snooker.由于电子竞技面向的观众具有相当的消费能力，广告商也非常感兴趣。索尼-爱丽信赞助了在首尔举行的比赛。美国的游戏玩家平均年龄都在30岁以上，且受过良好的教育。Sean Plott（即著名选手Day[9]）曾经是一名电竞选手，现在改行做了解说员。他表示随着赞助商的加入，电子竞技会有更多的资金来源，也会鼓励电脑游戏的玩家将电子竞技作为自己的职业。因特尔最近就为一项欧洲电竞赛事提供了15000美元赞助作为资金。也许将电子竞技引入西方国家的最大障碍，是人们仍然认为玩电脑游戏并不能算一份真正的工作。这种想法听起来并不陌生，在网球和斯诺克这些职业体育的发展过程中，其行业先锋无疑也听到过类似的声音。

Silver lining 银光闪闪

Gold's poor relation is on a winning streak 黄金的穷二弟阔起来了 Sep 30th 2010

AT THE first Olympic games of the modern era in 1896, winners were awarded silver medals.Since then the metal has had to get used to second-class status.But for some time now silver prices have been outpacing those of gold(see chart), its flashier neighbour on the periodic table.On September 29th silver exceeded $22 an ounce, a price not seen since 1980 when the Hunt brothers, a pair of Texan oil barons, unwisely attempted to corner the market.Then silver spiked as high as $50 an ounce before the strategy unravelled, sending the price crashing and the Hunts back to the oil business.32 在1896年第一届现代奥运会上，冠军获得的奖牌是银质的。从那以后，白银便沦为了老二的象征。不过，近来银价上扬之速已超过黄金（见图，银价一直压着它在元素周期表上的光鲜邻居一头）。9月29日，银价突破22美元/盎司。上一次白银达到如此高度还要追溯到1980年，当时德州石油大亨亨特兄弟（Hunt brothers）妄图操纵银市，使银价一度站上了50美元/盎司。接着，他们的如意算盘破产，银价随之崩盘，兄弟俩只能回去继续做石油生意。

Whereas around 25-30% of gold is bought by investors, only about a tenth of global silver production goes the same way.Roughly half the world’s silver goes to industrial users(the balance is accounted for by jewellery and other silverware), although their identity has undergone a huge shift over the past decade.大约25~30%的黄金是由投资者购买的，而白银的这一比例只有大约10%。大约有一半的白银被用于工业用途（其余则被制成首饰和银器），不过数十年来用途不尽相同。

Demand for silver is likely to keep rising in developing countries in particular: China, which used to export the metal, now imports it.The same cannot be said for supply.As Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank points out, three-quarters of the world’s supply comes as a by-product from copper, lead and zinc mines.So ramping up production is difficult.Total supplies of the metal in 2009, at 27,650 tonnes, were barely higher than in 2004.Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal.发展中国家对白银的需求可能持续上升。特别是中国，已由白银出口国变为进口国。供给方的情形则非如此。德意志银行的迈克尔?刘易斯（Michael Lewis）指出，白银供给中有75%是铜、铅和锌矿开采过程中的副产品。因此大举增加产量并不容易。2009年，白银总供给量为27 650吨，只比2004年略高。或许未来运动员拿块银牌回家也不会感到多沮丧了。

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发表于 2010-10-4 22:49 |只看该作者

Athletes of the future may not feel quite so bad about taking home a silver medal.或许未来运动员拿块银牌回家也会感到多沮丧了。

翻译反了吧！

Ambac's fall Ambac倒闭

And then there was one

已成过去

The bond-insurance industry struggles for survival

债券保险业挣扎求存

Nov 4th 2010

AMERICA’S municipal-bond market is worth around $2.8 trillion.But “monoline” insurers, which insure municipal bonds issued by American cities and counties, are barely breathing.On November 1st the industry edged closer to extinction when one of the largest bond insurers, Ambac, announced that it would skip an interest payment.The company could file for bankruptcy by the end of the month.美国的市政债券市场市值约为2.8万亿。但为美国市县所发市政债券提供保险的单一险种保险公司只能苟延残喘。11月1日，当最大的债券保险公司之一Ambac宣布停付一期利息时，这个行业离灰飞烟灭又近了一点。该公司月底前可能申请破产。

It didn’t need an oracle to predict Ambac’s demise.Earlier this year a state regulator siphoned off some of Ambac’s most toxic assets and put them into “rehabilitation”.Ambac has over $1.6 billion in debt, but only $76m in cash and short-term securities.One of its most coveted assets is its $7 billion “net operating loss tax carry forward”, which could translate into $2.5 billion in tax savings if it ever manages to turn a profit.Rob Haines of CreditSights, a research firm, does not think it will: “Ambac is a dying company with a finite life.”

预测Ambac的破产并非难事。今年早些时候，一家州监管机构抽取Ambac的一些最为不良的资产，将它们投入“改造”。Ambac欠下超过16亿美元的债务，但只有7.6千万的现金和短期证券。该公司最遭人觊觎的资产之一是其70亿美元的“净营业损失免税金额”，如果该公司有机会盈利，该免税金额可转换成25亿美元的节税金额。CreditSights研究公司的罗布?海恩斯（Rob Haines）认为Ambac不会盈利：“Ambac时日无多了。”

艰难的单一险种保险公司）等债券保险公司拖延偿还欠款。它们的信用等级下降，意味着发行人更不愿意向它们买保险。

In 2005 bond insurers covered around 57% of new bond issuance, but now they cover a mere 7% or so.Only one monoline remains active: Assured Guaranty, which sat out most of the structured stampede.All its pre-crisis peers are either being restructured, face litigation or are out of business.Even Warren Buffett, who entered the bond-insurance market in 2008, has pulled back.“We’re like an only child,” says Dominic Frederico, the boss of Assured Guaranty.“We don’t have anybody to play with but all the toys are ours.” Still, life isn’t all fun and games.Standard & Poor’s, a ratings agency, last month stripped the firm of its AAA rating.2005年，债券保险公司覆盖了大约57%的新债券保险，但现在它们仅覆盖大约7%。只有一家单一险种保险公司仍有活力：对结构化浪潮浅尝辄止的Assured Guaranty。它在危机之前的所有同行要么正在重组，要么面临诉讼，要么破产。即使是2008年进入债券保险市场的沃伦?巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也撤出。“我们就像独生子，” Assured Guaranty的老板多米尼克?弗雷德里克（Dominic Frederico）说，“我们没有玩伴，但所有玩具都是我们的。”然而，生活并非只有欢乐与游戏。评级机构标准普尔上月剥夺了该企业的AAA等级。

Some still believe there is hope for the industry.The National League of Cities, a non-profit organisation, thinks there should be a mutual insurance company owned and operated by local governments.But monolines will have to embrace a new model to succeed.Stanislas Rouyer of Moody’s, another ratings agency, says monolines need to emphasise that they provide not just insurance but also monitoring and surveillance capabilities.This would enable them to sell their wares directly to retail investors, who account for 36% of the buyer base for municipal bonds.一些人仍然认为这个行业还有希望。非营利组织全国城市联盟（National League of Cities）认为应有一家由地方政府拥有和运营的互助保险公司。但单一险种保险公司将不得不采用新模式以求成功。另一家评级机构穆迪公司（Moody’s）的斯丹尼斯拉斯?劳耶尔（Stanislas Rouyer）表示单一险种保险公司需要强调它们不仅提供保险，而且具备监控和监督的能力。这样做将使它们能够直接向占市政债券买家基数36%的散户销售产品。

There are other hurdles to jump first.The shaky finances of some municipalities could put what’s left of the industry to another huge test.Fragile issuers and nervous investors ought to be a boon to insurers.But mass defaults by cities and counties could be the final blow for Assured Guaranty and its zombie peers.还有其他障碍尚需先行跨越。一些市政府不稳固的财务状况可能使这个行业剩下的公司面临另一个巨大的考验。脆弱的发行人和紧张的投资者应该对保险公司有所裨益。但市县大量违约可能成为Assured Guaranty及其毫无活力的同行的致命一击。

Finance and Economics 财经

Oracle v SAP Oracle对阵SAP

Maintaining fees 捍卫维护费

A lawsuit against SAP is about more than illegal downloads 针对SAP的讼案不仅仅与非法下载有关

Nov 4th 2010

SOMETIMES a tackle says much about a match and even the entire season.This is the case with a trial that opened on November 1st, pitting the world’s two biggest makers of corporate software, Oracle and SAP, against each other.The dispute goes back to SAP’s purchase in 2005 of TomorrowNow, which provided maintenance services for some of Oracle’s software.Its aim was to poach customers.But in 2007 Oracle sued SAP, alleging that TomorrowNow had made illegal downloads from its website.有时，一次阻截抢断就足以说明一场球赛甚或整个赛季。11月1日开庭、挑起全球最大两家企业软件商Oracle与SAP相互火拼的讼案，就属于这种情况。这场争论要追溯至2005年SAP收购TomorrowNow一事，后者为某些Oracle软件提供维护服务，意在挖走顾客。不过2007年Oracle起诉SAP，声称TomorrowNow从其网站非法下载。

SAP has since admitted that TomorrowNow had done wrong and closed it down.It will not even contest allegations that it was aware of the copyright infringement and has reportedly agreed to pay $120m in legal fees to Oracle.This essentially leaves only two questions open: the damages—SAP thinks $40m is enough;Oracle wants about $2 billion—and whether Léo Apotheker, SAP’s former boss and now head of Hewlett-Packard(HP), will appear in court.SAP自那时起就承认TomorrowNow行为失当，并关闭了该公司。而面对Oracle指控自个对版权侵害心知肚明一说，SAP甚至不会辩解。并且，据说其同意向Oracle支付1.2亿美元的诉讼费。这实质上只留下了两个问题悬而未决。一是Oracle的损失，SAP认为4000万美元足够了，而Oracle想要约20亿美元；二是Léo Apotheker这位SAP前老板、HP现领袖，是否会出庭。

The issue is the same as with independent car-repair shops: what access to the

intellectual property of the original vendor should they have? If the court favours Rimini Street and others, their business could take off.A growing number of firms are thinking about defecting from Oracle and SAP, even though they would no longer get regular updates.They are happy with their existing applications and could cut their maintenance costs in half.这个问题跟独立汽修店面临的问题是一样的：这些店铺应通过何种途径获得创始者的知识产权？若法庭站到Rimini Street及其他企业一边，这些企业就将蓬勃发展。越来越多企业正考虑背弃Oracle与SAP，即便不再获得定期升级。它们满意现有应用，可能会削减一半维护费。

If many customers jump ship, this would weigh heavily on the results of Oracle and SAP.Maintenance fees, usually 22% of a program’s price per year, have become a bigger part of firms’ technology budgets and of software vendors’ income.For both firms, maintenance generates twice as much revenue as software sales—and all of the profits.若众多用户掉头离去，将会极大影响Oracle跟SAP的业绩。维护费通常占一个程序年费的22%，已成为企业科研预算及软件销售收入的大部分来源。对Oracle与SAP两家公司而言，维护费是软件销售收入的两倍，也是全部利润。

Yet if the TomorrowNow trial has attracted so much attention, it is also because of a new epic rivalry in the industry.It started when Oracle bought Sun Microsystems last year, becoming a direct rival to HP.Things got worse in September when Oracle hired HP’s ex-boss, Mark Hurd, who had been pushed out the previous month.The relationship became downright hostile when HP then appointed Mr Apotheker as successor and installed as chairman, of all people, Ray Lane, who left Oracle in 2000 after falling out with its flamboyant boss, Larry Ellison.然而，倘若TomorrowNow一案吸引了如此多关注，也是因为该行业产生了新一轮重大对抗。这种对抗始于去年Oracle收购Sun Microsystems时，这场收购变成了一场直接针对HP的竞争。今年9月，情况变糟了，当时Oracle雇佣了HP前老板Mark Hurd，而他上个月刚被HP炒了鱿鱼。HP接着任命Apotheker先生充当继任者，安排Ray Lane担任董事长，而偏偏就是此人2000年与Oracle趾高气扬的老板Larry Ellison大吵一场后，离开了Oracle。因而此时，两家公司间的关系变得彻头彻尾充满敌意。

Mr Ellison, who has shown restraint in recent years, has since rediscovered his previous more belligerent form.He compared HP’s board to “idiots” when they forced Mr Hurd out.He spoke of “madness” after Mr Apotheker’s appointment.Later he accused HP’s new boss, who started his new job on the first day of the trial, of having “overseen an industrial-espionage scheme”.Ellison先生最近几年表现克制，但从那时起，他又找回了从前更好斗的模样。当HP董事会逼迫Hurd先生离开时，他将其比作“白痴”。在HP任命Apotheker先生后，他说这是“蠢事”。后来，他指责HP新老板（此案开庭首日他走马上任）正“监管一项工业间谍活动计划”。

All this has entertainment value.And it may impress Wall Street.But it is unlikely to make firms buy more of Oracle’s products.Nor will it do anything to counter the growing anger among customers of Oracle(and of SAP, for that matter)over how much

they pay in maintenance fees, with so little in return.这一切充满了娱乐价值，并会让华尔街印象深刻，却不大可能让企业购买更多的Oracle产品。而Oracle用户（就此事而言，SAP的用户同样）日益愤怒：他们付出了这么多维护费，回报却如此之少。要平息他们的怒气，这一切也毫无用处。Transparency International 透明国际

Murk meter 阴暗量表

The best-known corruption index may have run its course 最著名的腐败指数或许已走到尽头。

Oct 28th 2010 | BERLIN

No wonder, then, that the annual corruption perceptions index(CPI), which orders countries according to the perceived degree of graft, is closely watched.But when its compilers—Transparency International(TI), an organisation based in Berlin—released their 16th annual ranking on October 26th, there was criticism as well as curiosity.于是，也难怪按被察觉到的贪腐程度对国家进行排序的腐败认知指数(CPI)会受到密切关注了。不过当其编纂者（位于柏林的透明国际组织）在10月26日发布第16份排名时，既引发了好奇，也招至了批评。

To be sure, TI has done a lot for the anti-corruption cause.The group has had an “enormous impact”, says Richard Boucher, a deputy secretary-general at the OECD, a rich-country club.The CPI was the first index comparing corruption globally.透明国际无疑已为反腐事业做出许多努力。富裕国家俱乐部——经合组织的副秘书长理查德?鲍彻(Richard Boucher)称透明国际已拥有 “巨大的影响力”。腐败认知指数是第一个在全球层面上对腐败程度进行比较的指数。

不过这一指数始终存有争议。正如你可能预料的那样，早期的抱怨来自于贫困地区，这些地区感到自己受到了一个反映富裕国家精神特质的组织的区别对待。

The CPI highlights the general level of corruption, but offers little clue about which aspects are most serious, or how to fight it.Frustration has grown with the idea that “a single number for a whole country is enough”, says Nathaniel Heller of Global Integrity, an anti-corruption outfit.腐败认知指数强调了腐败的整体水平，但却没有为哪些领域腐败最盛或应如何打击腐败提供多少信息。反腐败组织——环球廉正(Global Integrity)的纳撒尼尔?海勒(Nathaniel Heller)表示，对于那种认为“就整个国家而言，一个数据便足够了”的想法，人们已产生受挫感。

The CPI “has more than run its course”, in the view of Claudio Weber Abramo, director of Transparência Brasil, a former chapter that left the TI umbrella in 2007.在透明巴西(Transparência Brasil)主席克劳迪奥?韦伯?阿布拉莫(Claudio Weber Abramo)看来，腐败认知指数“已经过时”。该组织曾是透明国际组织网中的一个分支，但已于2007年退出。

TI is aware of the index’s shortcomings.The CPI, it says, is “an annual snapshot” with “less of a focus on year-on-year trends”.Yet the group stands by its ranking.“We are comfortable we have an important tool—but it is only one tool”, says Huguette Labelle, TI’s chair.透明国际明白指数所存有的缺陷。该组织指出，腐败认知指数是一种“较少聚焦于同比趋势”的“快照”。不过该组织仍支持自己的排序。透明国际主席胡吉特?拉贝勒(Huguette Labelle)表示：“我们为自己拥有一种重要工具而感到安心——不过这只是一种工具”。

form, its other work might fare better.透明国际远非黔驴技穷之辈。目前，该组织正在关注推动国际协议并助其实施。而在地区层面上，该组织的所作所为也比以往多上许多。在一些发展中国家，法律咨询中心向腐败受害者伸出援手。不过，腐败认知指数影响巨大，透明国际正面临着两难局面。这一指数既赢得了其所急需的关注，却又盖住了其他活动的风头，并将自己推至风口浪尖。如果透明国际有勇气抛弃这块记分牌，或者至少是以一种误导性较小的方式加以发布的话，该组织其他工作的进展或许就将更加顺利。

Broadband in America 美国宽带业

Come sooner, future 快来吧，未来

Verizon has paid dearly to build a fast network.Now it needs customers Verizon公司付出了高昂代价建设高速网络。现在，它亟需用户

Oct 28th 2010

VERIZON can get shirty about the word “fibre”.America’s second-biggest telecoms operator successfully complained to the Better Business Bureau that competitors had touted “fibre-optic fast” to consumers, even though their broadband networks did not run fibre all the way to the home, as Verizon does.This is not just a techies’ argument.By an order of magnitude, an all-fibre network is the fastest way to move information from one place to another on the internet and Verizon has the largest such network in America.The difficult bit is making money from it.Verizon可能生“纤”字的气。因为这家美国第二大电信运营商向商业促进局申诉成功，称其竞争者的宽带网即便并未如自己那般从头至尾光纤延伸入户，却纷纷向消费者兜售“光纤高速”。这并非只是愤愤之辞。就数量级而言，全光网是互联网信息异地迁移速度最快的方式，而Verizon拥有美国最大的全光网。难点在于用它赚钱。

At first the two networks had a fair fight, delivering the internet at about the same speed.No network, however, can run faster than the speed of its “last mile”, from the neighbourhood node to the house.This is the most expensive place to lay networks and the last mile of cable is faster than a copper wire.So the telephone companies would, eventually, be unable to deliver the internet as fast as their cable competitors.最初，这两种网络公平竞争，互联网传输速度大致相同。然而，没有网络能快过其“最后一英里”（即从小区节点至用户家里那段）的速度。这是网络布设造价最贵之处，而电缆最后一英里比铜线快。因此电话公司也许最终，其互联网传输速度不能像有线竞争者那样快。

Verizon, formed in 2000 out of several regional telephone companies, decided to create a third network.Since 2004 it has strung optic fibre to 60% of the homes where it already had copper wires, mainly in Texas, California and on the East Coast.Verizon calls its new network “FiOS”.It cost about $23 billion to build and, according to Sanford Bernstein, an investment firm, contributed to the $32 billion debt of Verizon’s wireline division.2000年成立、由几家区域电话公司组成的Verizon，决定创建第三种网络。2004年来，光纤拉进了60%已铺有铜线的家庭（主要在德克萨斯、加利福尼亚及东海岸地区）。Verizon称其新网络为“FiOS”。其建设费约230亿美元，而据投资公司Sanford Bernstein的数据，这导致Verizon有线部门负债320亿美元。

high-definition video.Yet Verizon’s network could leave these in the dust.In tests in Massachusetts its fibre network has run as fast as 10,000 megabits per second, and it could go faster.基本的铜线及电缆互联网接入速度不超过5Mbits/s，仅够看YouTube或Skype视频聊天。不过，网速鲜有宣传得那样快。光纤升级后的有线网络，网速达几百兆每秒，足以应付现在的大部分应用，而在不远的将来出现的许多应用，如高清视频，处理起来也绰绰有余。然而，Verizon的网络将令上述网络望尘莫及，在马萨诸塞州进行的试验中，其光纤网速高达10Gbits/s,还能更快。

For now, Verizon has halted new investment in fibre while it tries to drum up more customers for FiOS.And for the long term it is trying to create demand for an even faster internet.Verizon has suggested that it be allowed to offer companies super-fast, premium access to its network while continuing to provide what it calls “the open internet” to its customers.Verizon sees its fast network supplying programmes to 100-inch television screens and providing 3-D online gaming.More speed-demanding video games are coming(see article).The company has also been discussing linking medical devices in hospitals and doctors’ surgeries.It is building connections to intelligent power grids, which businesses and homes could use to reduce their energy bills.For Verizon, the future cannot come fast enough.目前，Verizon暂停往光纤上再投资，同时设法力争更多FiOS顾客。而长期以来，它一直试图创造同样的高速互联网需求。Verizon表明，它应获准向企业提供高速、优惠的网络接入，同时继续向用户提供其所称的“开放式互联网”。Verizon考虑让其高速网络提供100英寸电视屏幕节目及3D网络游戏。更多苛求速度的视频游戏正在涌现。该公司也一直在谈论用高速网络连接医院医疗设备及医生手术室。它正构建智能电网连接，企业及家庭用户可用其削减能源开销。对Verizon而言，未来来得还不够快。Born digital 数码人生

National libraries start to preserve the web, but cannot save everything 各国的图书馆开始保存网站，但不能面面俱到

Oct 21st 2010

The library of the future IN THE digital realm, things seem always to happen the wrong way round.Whereas Google has hurried to scan books into its digital catalogue, a group of national libraries has begun saving what the online giant leaves behind.For although search engines such as Google index the web, they do not archive it.Many websites just disappear when their owner runs out of money or interest.Adam Farquhar, in charge of digital projects for the British Library, points out that the world has in some ways a better record of the beginning of the 20th century than of the beginning of the 21st.在数码界，出乎意料的事情屡见不鲜。当谷歌忙于将书籍扫描成数字文档时，各国图书馆已经开始保存这个在线巨人漏掉的资料。尽管谷歌这类搜索引擎提供网站的索引服务，但并没有把网站保存起来。很多网站因其所有人缺乏资金或失去兴趣而昙花一现。Adam Farquhar负责大英博物馆的数字项目，他指出在某种程度上全世界对20世纪初期的记录比21世纪初期的记录要好。

In 2003 eleven national libraries and the Internet Archive launched a project to preserve “born-digital” information: the kind that has never existed as anything but digitally.Called the International Internet Preservation Consortium(IIPC), it now includes 39 large institutional libraries.But the task is impossible.One reason is the sheer amount of data on the web.The groups have already collected several petabytes of data(a petabyte can hold roughly 10 trillion copies of this article).2003年，11家各国图书馆和因特网档案室启动一个保护数码信息的项目：此类信息没有以数码之外的任何其他形式存在过。这个称为“国际因特网保护联合体”的项目，现有39家大型机构图书馆。但是这一任务几乎无法完成。理由之一是网络上的数据量极其庞大。这些团体已经收集了几拍（petabytes）的数据（一拍大约能装下10万亿篇本文）。

data sets.Audio and video programmes based on proprietary formats such as Windows Media Player are another challenge.What happens if Microsoft is bankrupt and forgotten in 2210? 另一个问题是如何确保现在储存数据的格式，在几个世纪之后依然存在。古代的一些书稿人们到今天还能读。但是很多过去的数字媒体，即使勉强能读，也仅限于为数不多的几台老掉牙的机器。国际因特网保护联合体已经单独创立一种格式，让未来的历史学家更有可能找到读取这些数据的机器。但一种解决方案不能抓取所有内容。网站发布工具越来越多地按照数据的复杂程度提供内容丰富的网页。以各类专有格式（如windows media player)储存的音频和视频内容也是个大问题。万一2210年微软破产或无人知晓怎么办？

The biggest problem, for now, is money.The British Library estimates that it costs half as much to store a digital document as it does a physical one.But there are a lot more digital ones.America’s Library of Congress enjoys a specific mandate, and budget, to save the web.The British Library is still seeking one.现在面临的最大问题是钱。大英博物馆估计储存数字文件的花费是储存物理文件的一半。但是数字内容要多很多。美国国会图书馆很幸运，因为国家有具体的保护网站的命令和预算。大英博物馆还在争取这种命令。

So national libraries have decided to split the task.Each has taken responsibility for the digital works in its national top-level domain(web-address suffixes such as “.uk” or “.fr”).In countries with larger domains, such as Britain and America, curators cannot hope to save everything.They are concentrating on material of national interest, such as elections, news sites and citizen journalism or innovative uses of the web.因此，各国的图书馆决定共同完成这个任务。它们分别承担其顶级域名内的数字作品（如后缀为“.uk”或“.fr”的网址）。如果某些国家域名庞大，如英国和美国，馆长们不要指望把什么都保存下来。他们需要重点处理关系国计民生的材料，如选举、新闻网站和公民的报章杂志或创意使用网站的方法。

The daily death of countless websites has brought a new sense of urgency—and forced libraries to adapt culturally as well.Past practice was to tag every new document as it arrived.Now precision must be sacrificed to scale and speed.The task started before standards, goals or budgets are set.And they may yet change.Just like many websites, libraries will be stuck in what is known as “permanent beta”.每天，都有无数网站消失，更让人感到时间紧迫——图书馆也不得不根据社会文化需要，灵活处理。过去习惯做法是凡是新文件，一一标注保存。现在则必须牺牲准确性换取规模和速度。标准、目标或预算都没确定，就开始工作了。而标准、任务、预算还可能变更。同很多网站一样，图书馆也将陷入所谓“永久试用”的境地。

译者注：本文不长，语言相对简单，但要译出“韵味”，还是不容易。我觉得有几点需要大家尤其注意： 1.大意的把握。两方面内容，保存什么？保存的是网站内容，不是某个网页。谁来

保存？各国的图书馆，这不是一个国家的图书馆能做得了的工作。这两点弄不好，文中web、national libraries就不好翻。

某些具体语句的把握。除了要翻出意思，还要翻出感情色彩。就拿开头一句“things seem always to happen the wrong way round”来说，有人翻成“倒行逆施”，这就说明译者没有理解中文的倒行逆施有“贬义”，用来形容某个不得人心、逆历史潮流而动的做法等，感情色彩很浓厚。而本文则没有这种强烈的情绪，因此，我认为“出乎意料的事情屡见不鲜”、“事情的发展总是让人摸不透”等比较贴切，看似“不准确”，其实意思出来了。

Virtual outsourcing 虚拟外包业

Mobile work 移动工作

A way to earn money by texting 发短信赚钱之法

Oct 28th 2010 | new york

Mobile worker 移动工作者

THE idea came to Nathan Eagle, a research scientist with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, when he was doing a teaching stint in rural Kenya.He realised that, as three-quarters of the 4.6 billion mobile-phone users worldwide live in developing countries, a useful piece of technology is now being placed in the hands of a large number of people who might be keen to use their devices to make some money.To help them do so, he came up with a service called txteagle which distributes small jobs via text messaging in return for small payments.麻省理工学院研究员Nathan Eagle在肯尼亚乡下进行短期教学时，冒出了这一念头。他意识到，全世界46亿手机用户有四分之三生活在发展中国家，因而一项实用技术，此刻正掌握在大量或许渴望用自己手机赚钱的人手中。为帮助他们那样做，Eagle先生想出了一种叫做txteagle的业务，可以靠发文字短信分发零活来换取小额报酬。

Mr Eagle hopes txteagle will do its bit by mobile “crowdsourcing”—breaking down jobs into small tasks and sending them to lots of individuals.These jobs often involve local knowledge and range from things like checking what street signs say in rural Sudan for a satellite-navigation service to translating words into a Kenyan dialect for companies trying to spread their marketing.A woman living in rural Brazil or India may have limited access to work, adds Mr Eagle, “but she can still use her mobile phone to collect local price and product data or even complete market-research surveys.” Payments are transferred to a user’s phone by a mobile money service, such as the M-PESA system run by Safaricom in Africa, or by providing additional calling credit.Eagle先生希望txteagle业务通过移动“众包”（将工作拆分成零星任务后派发给众多个体）有所贡献。这些工作通常牵涉本地知识，涵盖各种事情，如为一种卫星导航业务核对种种路标在苏丹乡下表明什么，为那些试图扩展市场的公司将文字翻译为肯尼亚土语。一位住在巴西或印度乡下的妇女，或许工作机会有限，Eagle先生补充道，“但她仍能用自己的手机搜集当地价格及产品数据，甚或完成市场调研。”报酬通过一种手机钱包业务（比如非洲Safaricom移动通信公司运营的M-PESA移动转账系统）转到用户手机上，或者打入额外的手机预付费。

Working with over 220 mobile operators, txteagle is able to reach 2 billion subscribers in 80 countries.It already has the largest contract-labour force in Kenya and new ways of using it are being found all the time.Recently a large media firm asked Mr Eagle for help in monitoring its television commercials across Africa.The company was concerned that, although it had paid for broadcasting rights, its ads could be replaced with others by local television companies.So txteagle pays locals to watch and then text notes about which ads are shown.“I would never think of that myself,” says Mr Eagle.Which is why he is not sure just how big all these small text jobs could become.txteagle业务与220多个移动运营商合作，能到达80个国家的20亿订户。在肯尼亚已拥有了最大的包工力量，新的使用方式一直层出不穷。最近一家媒体巨头向Eagle先生求助，监视其在非洲全境的电视商业广告。该公司担心，尽管其已为播映权掏了钱，但自个的广告却可能被当地电视公司的广告替换。于是txteagle业务付钱给当地人观察哪些广告播出了，然后用文字标注。Eagle说，“我自己决不会想到这个法子。”他不确定所有这些零星的文字工作究竟会变成多大的力量，而这就是原因。The Big Mac index 巨无霸指数 An indigestible problem 难题

Why China needs more expensive burgers 为什么说中国的巨无霸太便宜了 Oct 14th 2010 | Hong kong

A WEAK currency, despite its appeal to exporters and politicians, is no free lunch.But it can provide a cheap one.In China, for example, a McDonald’s Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average in Beijing and Shenzhen, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates.In America, in contrast, the same burger averages $3.71.出口商和政客所吁求的弱势货币绝非免费的午餐。不过它确实可以使午餐变得很便宜。比如说，在中国的北京和深圳，一个麦当劳巨无霸汉堡平均只需14.5元人民币即可买到，按市场汇率计算，相当于2.18美元。而在美国，相同的汉堡要卖到3.71美元。

That makes China’s yuan one of the most undervalued currencies in the Big Mac index, our gratifyingly simple guide to currency misalignments, updated this week(see chart).The index is based on the idea of purchasing-power parity, which says that a currency’s price should reflect the amount of goods and services it can buy.Since 14.5 yuan can buy as much burger as $3.71, a yuan should be worth $0.26 on the foreign-exchange market.In fact, it costs just $0.15, suggesting that it is undervalued by about 40%.这使得人民币成为本周巨无霸指数——本刊的实用单一货币失调指标——中最被低估的货币（见图）。巨无霸指数的基础是购买力平价，即一种货币的价格应该反映它所能买到的商品和服务。14.5元人民币可以买到3.71美元的汉堡，因此1元人民币应该在外汇市场中价值0.26美元。而事实上1元人民币只能兑换0.15美元，这意味着人民币被低估了40%。

The tensions caused by such misalignments prompted Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, to complain last month that his country was a potential casualty of a “currency war”.Perhaps it was something he ate.In Brazil a Big Mac costs the equivalent of $5.26, implying that the real is now overvalued by 42%.The index also suggests that the euro is overvalued by about 29%.And the Swiss, who avoid most wars, are in the thick of this one.Their franc is the most expensive currency on our list.The Japanese are so far the only rich country to intervene directly in the markets to weaken their currency.But according to burgernomics, the yen is only 5% overvalued, not much of a casus belli.在货币失调所造成的国际紧张局面面前，巴西财政部长曼特加（Guido Mantega）上个月发出了巴西是“货币战争”潜在受害者的感叹。或许他是在抱怨自己吃的东西太贵了。在巴西，一个巨无霸汉堡的价格相当于5.26美元，表明雷亚尔被高估了42%。巨无霸指数还显示欧元被高估了29%。而传统的中立国瑞士这次站在了货币战争最前线。瑞士法郎已成为指数中最昂贵的货币。日本是目前唯一直接干预货币市场使本国货币贬值的发达国家。但从我们的汉堡经济学视角来看，日元只被高估了5%，显然不能作为发动货币战的借口。

If a currency war is in the offing, America’s congressmen seem increasingly determined to arm themselves.A bill passed by the House of Representatives last month would treat undervalued currencies as an illegal export subsidy and allow American firms to request countervailing tariffs.The size of those tariffs would reflect the scale of the undervaluation.货币战争是否一触即发姑且不论，美国的国会议员们似乎是铁了心要开始武装戒备了。上个月，众议院通过了一项法令，将被低估的货币视同非法出口补贴，美国公司有权要求征收抵消性关税。具体的税率体现了被低估的程度。

things)into line with a “norm” based on the country’s growth, income per person, demography and budget balance.这一法令通过什么方法计算货币失调程度呢？不是巨无霸指数，而是IMF所惯用的深奥算法。IMF使用三种相互关联的手段来计算汇率。一是根据使一国经常项目收支（相当于贸易收支在加上少数其他项目）与“标准”（由该国增长率、人均收入、人口和财政收支等因素决定）相匹配的原则来计算真实汇率。

The fund’s second approach ignores current-account balances and instead calculates a direct statistical relationship between the real exchange rate and things like a country’s terms of trade(the price of its exports compared with its imports), its productivity and its foreign assets and liabilities.The strength of Brazil’s currency, for example, may partly reflect the high price of exports such as soyabeans.第二种算法忽略经常项目收支，而是计算一国真实汇率与该国进出口比价（出口品价格与进口品价格之比）、生产力、对外资产负债情况等因素的直接统计关系。比如，巴西里亚尔的强势一定程度上是拜其出口品（如大豆）价格较高所赐。

Third, the fund also calculates the exchange rate that would stabilise the country’s foreign assets and liabilities at a reasonable level.If, for example, a country runs sizeable trade surpluses, resulting in a rapid build-up of foreign assets, it probably has an undervalued exchange rate.三是计算使一国对外资产和负债稳定在合理水平的汇率。比如，如果某国有着巨大的贸易盈余，因而对外资产迅速囤积，那么该国货币就有可能是被低估的。

The IMF has typically assessed its members’ policies one at a time.But the fund’s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, now proposes to assess its biggest members all at once to make sure their macroeconomic strategies do not work at cross-purposes.He is keen to identify the ways in which a country’s policies, including its exchange-rate policies, “spill over” to its neighbours.在通常情况下，IMF会逐一评估各成员国的政策。但总干事多米尼克?斯特劳斯-卡恩（Dominique Strauss-Kahn）最近建议同时评估所有最重要成员国，以确保它们的宏观经济策略目标不会相互冲突。卡恩急切地想弄明白一国的政策——包括汇率政策在内——是如何“溢出”从而影响到邻国的。

Those spillovers depend on the size of the economy as much as the scale of any misalignments.But the biggest economies are also the hardest to bully.The fund’s last annual report on the Chinese economy, in July, included the government’s rebuttal of every criticism the fund offered.In a decorous compromise the report concluded that the yuan was “substantially” undervalued but refrained from quantifying the size of the problem.溢出效应既取决于失调的严重程度，也取决于经济规模的大小。但大经济体通常也是强硬派。在IMF最新一期的中国经济年报（7月发布）中，中国政府逐条反驳了IMF提出的所有批评。IMF只能作出适当让步，仅仅称人民币被“显著”低估了，而没有给出到底低估多少的具体数字。

Windows or curtains（注1）良机还是死路？

The software giant is desperate to make a splash in the smart-phone business 软件巨头孤注一掷，想要在智能电话行业大展拳脚

Oct 7th 2010 | San Francisco

AT A company meeting last year, Steve Ballmer, Microsoft’s pugnacious boss, spied an employee taking a photo on an Apple iPhone.He promptly grabbed the offending device and pretended to stamp on it.Microsoft would love to crush competitors in the smart-phone market, but it has repeatedly failed to come up with compelling offerings of its own.Now the software firm is gearing up for another assault on a business that is crucial to its future.去年，在一次公司会议上，斗志旺盛的微软老板斯蒂夫?鲍尔默，发现一名雇员正在用苹果的iPhone拍照。他一把夺过这台令其不快的设备，作势猛踩。微软巴不得击垮智能电话市场上的对手，却一而再再而三地、未能整出强有力的产品。现在，这家软件公司正憋足了劲，要在智能手机行业发起又一轮出击，该行业对其未来至关紧要。

On October 11th Microsoft is due to unveil phones from manufacturers such as HTC and

第三篇：经济学人文章摘录32篇(中英对照)

【经济学人】双语阅读：律师事务所标价更高收益更少

Business 商业报道

Law firms 律师事务所

Charging more, getting less 标价更高，收益更少

Lawyers' biggest customers are discovering that they can haggle 律师的最大客户们发现他们能与律师还价

THERE were groans in big companies' legal departments in the mid-2000s, when the fees of America's priciest lawyers first hit 1,000 an hour.当美国最高的律师酬金达到每小时1000美元，20世纪中期，一些大公司的法律部门里开始抱怨连连。

Such rates have since become common at firms with prestige.自此以后，这样的价格在名企变得普遍。

A survey published this week by the National Law Journal found that they now go as high as 1,800.美国法律期刊刊登的一项调查表明，现在的律师费用已经高达1800美元/时，But the general counsels of large businesses are increasingly finding that they can ignore these extravagant rates, and insist on big discounts.但是那些为大公司效力的法律顾问却逐渐发现，他们忽视高额酬金，并坚持较大折扣。

Price-discounting tends to be associated more with used-car lots than with posh law firms.There was a time when a lawyer could submit his bill and be confident of receiving a cheque for the same amount.价格折扣渐渐常见于二手车交易，并非光鲜的律师律师事务所。有一段时间，律师收到的支票跟账单数目一样，并且，他们引以为豪。

In banner years, some even got more, as grateful clients tipped them a little extra for a job well done.在收益相当的那些年，一些慷慨的客户还会给点小费，来奖励他们的良好表现，因此有些律师能得到更多。

Since the financial crisis, however, the realisation of law firms—the proportion of their standard rates that they collect in practice—has been sliding.然，自金融危机，律师律师事务所的个人实现，即他们在实际中累积到标准价格的部分在下滑。

Earlier this month Peer Monitor, a company that tracks the legal industry, said that the ratio

in the United States dropped from 92% in 2007 to an all-time low of 83.5% in 2013.本月初，一家跟踪报道法律产业的公司，Peer Monitor表示，在美国，价格比率已由07年的92%下滑到空前低值，13年的83.5%。

British lawyers have seen a similar decline.英国律师界也有类似情况。

Discounts are rampant, says Brad Hildebrandt, a consultant to law firms.折扣现象在蔓延。一家律师律师事务所的顾问Brad Hildebrandt如是说。

The economic forces driving high-flying legal eagles into the bargain bin are no mystery.经济力量将这些高身段的律师界雄鹰打入廉价区，这已不再是秘密。

Demand for corporate legal work on such things as mergers, takeovers and share and bond issues plummeted in the 2008-09 recession, and has yet to recover.在企业合并、收购、股票债券问题等的法律合作需求也在08-09年的经济衰退中减弱，至今没恢复。

Simultaneously, the easy profits once earned in litigation departments have also dried up: the tedious task of reviewing mountains of documents, which law firms used to farm out to battalions of newly qualified associates, can increasingly be done by computers.同时，诉讼部的易得利润也枯竭了：枯燥的审核成堆文件工作，之前律师事务所都是承包给大批刚合格的伙伴，现也被电脑代替了。

Putting up prices at a time of weak demand and fierce competition seems perverse.在需求小，竞争激烈的时候提高价格似乎有些悖于常理，Yet the industry has continued to increase its sticker prices by 2-3% every year—only to give back almost all the gain by offering ever-greater discounts.但是律师行业仍旧持续以每年2%-3%的速度提高标价—仅仅只是提供一个更好的折扣给顾客。

One reason for this is that, as ever more big clients discover they can haggle, law firms have realised that the best way for them to start the negotiation is with the highest possible asking-price.原因之一在于，因为更多的客户发现他们能讨价还价，律师律师事务所意识到开始协商的最好办法就是给出最高索价。

In this, lawyers now find themselves in the same boat as accountants and other professionals who have long been used to having to bargain with bigger customers.而如今，律师们发现他们跟会计以及其他职业的人一样，一直以来都在跟较大客户还价。

Another reason is that sophisticated legal services are somewhat like luxury cars and handbags, in that a high asking-price is taken as a sign of quality.另一个原因是，错综复杂的法律服务体系有点像豪车和高端手提包一样，高价意味着高质。

No one wants to have hired the cheaper firm in a high-stakes lawsuit.没人想在一个赌注高的诉讼中雇佣一个廉价律师事务所来为自己工作。

But perhaps the most important rationale for discounting is that it lets law firms charge different prices to different clients, depending on their willingness to pay.但折扣最重要的理论基础是，它使得律师事务所根据不同的客户收取不一样的费用，当然，这取决于客户的意愿。

And even among business clients with big budgets, this varies markedly.甚至是与预算高的商业客户，价格也明显不同。

Over the past 25 years some large companies have built up their in-house legal departments, so that these can now deal with outside law firms on an equal footing.在过去的25年中，大公司自己内设了法律部门，像外面的律师事务所一样处理相关问题。

In-house lawyers know the market value of every type of service, and have sophisticated software that scrutinises invoices and queries anomalies.内部律师了解每一种服务的市场价值，拥有完善的软件细查发票，质疑异常。

Such clients no longer just take the law firm's word for how many hours its lawyers spent on a job: if the bill looks padded, they will not hesitate to demand cuts.这样的商业顾客，不再完全听信律师事务所在某一案子上花费的时长：如果账单看上去有水分，他们将毫不犹豫寻求折扣。

DuPont, a chemicals giant, has found plenty of scope for curbing its legal bills by becoming a cannier client.化学巨头杜邦发现变身为一个精明的客户，能有许多减少法律账单的机会。

In the early 1990s it spread its legal work among 350 firms.在20世纪90年代，杜邦将法律事务分配给350个律师事务所，Now it uses only 38—including some smaller firms in smaller cities, which offer better value for money.现在，只委托38个—包括一些较小城市的小公司，这些公司把金钱的价值用到实处。

DuPont has persuaded its remaining law firms to work together more closely.杜邦劝导现有的律师事务所加强合作。

For routine work it insists on flat fees;for riskier cases it seeks no-win, no-fee agreements.对于常规事务，坚持统一收费，对于有风险的事务，寻求没有胜利就没有酬薪的宗旨。

Above all, says Thomas Sager, DuPont's general counsel, We had to communicate that this is a new day, and you need to be as committed to our financial success as you are to yours.特别是，杜邦的总顾问Thomas Sager说：我们不得不相互传达‘今天是新的一天，你必须坚定的为我们的经济成功努力，就如同你对自己的那样'的信息。

Law firms' profits would evaporate if they offered smaller and less sophisticated clients such attractive deals.如果将很完美的方案提供给较小的，不那么精明的客户，律师事务所的利润可能会减少很多。

Fortunately for them, they have so far been able to get away with offering discreet, selective discounts.幸运的是，目前为止，他们能够避免供应谨慎，选择性折扣。

There are still a few big clients around who do not realise what they are missing: 仍有少数大顾客没有意识到错过了什么：

If you increase the rate every year, some clients will make you take it back, but others will let you keep it, says Tony Williams, a former managing partner of Clifford Chance, one of Britain's biggest law firms.如果每年都提高价格，一些顾客会让你收回该要求，但是另外一些会答应你的条件。高伟绅—英国最大律师事务所之一的总顾问Tony Williams如是说。

【经济学人】双语阅读：印尼矿业熔炉决定生存

Business 商业报道

Mining in Indonesia 印尼矿业

Smeltdown 熔炉决定生存

The government risks an export slump to boost the metals-processing industry 政府为了刺激金属加工业发展不惜冒着削减出口量的危险

INDONESIA'S government concedes that it will cause short-term damage;but on January 12th it went ahead and banned exports of mineral ores, at last implementing a law passed in 2009.印尼政府承认了金属加工产业将蒙受短期亏损；但是在1月12号，印尼政府坚持09年的立法，继续禁止出口矿石。

Officials say that forcing mining firms to export only processed minerals will attract investment in smelters and refineries.官方称，强令矿业公司只出口加工过的矿石将吸引投资，主要针对熔炼和精炼产业。

After a year or so this will start to add value to the country's exports, they say.在一年左右的时间后，这举措会增加印尼出口的价值。

But it is quite a gamble.但这是一个相当大的赌博。

Indonesiahas few smelters, and earns 5 billion a year by exporting unprocessed minerals such as copper concentrate, nickel ores and bauxite.印尼有一些熔炉产业，而且每年可以从出口天然矿产里，例如铜精矿石、镍矿石、矾土，获利50亿美元。

The mining ministry had admitted that an outright ban on ore shipments would cut exports by 4 billion this year and 2.5 billion next.矿业部承认，今年完全禁止矿石海运出口会减少40亿的出口额，明年预计减少25亿。

With the country's current-account deficit last year hitting 3.5% of GDP, its worst since 1986, and its currency falling steeply, this is a bad time to be forgoing foreign earnings.在印尼往来账户赤字占有GDP总额3.5%的情况下，这不是一个放弃国外盈利好时期。这是自1986年来最坏的情形，并且它的货币贬值很厉害。

This may explain why the president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, relaxed the moratorium at the last moment to let big copper producers keep exporting concentrate.这就解释了为什么苏西洛总统最后最后时刻放宽了出口政策转而让大型制铜商们继续出口精矿石。

FreeportIndonesia, an American-owned miner, had warned of a 60% cut in production at its Grasberg mine in Papua, the world's fifth-largest copper mine, if the ban had been imposed in its original form.如果禁令实施保持不变，美国控股的印尼自由港矿业公司警告它将减少了它在巴布亚岛Grasberg矿的60%产量。

Freeportsmelts about 40% of its output at Gresik in eastern Java, the country's sole copper smelter, but it exports the rest as concentrate.这座矿同时也是世界第五大铜矿。自由港冶炼了在Java东部Gresik大约40%的矿石产出，是这个国家唯一的铜矿冶炼公司，但是它出口剩下没炼的矿石，例如铜精矿。

Concentrating minds 以提炼矿石为中心

Another reason for waiving the restriction on copper is that, in contrast to some other metals, mining and concentrating it produces most of its final value: 放弃限制铜矿出口政策的另一个原因就是，与某些金属对比，采铜和精炼就可以占有最大一部分的最终价值：

Nathan Associates, a consultancy in Washington, DC, says only 4-6% is added by smelting.南森联合公司是华盛顿的一家咨询公司，宣称只有4%-6%的价值是通过熔炼加上去的。

So the potential upside from insisting that only refined copper be exported is slight relative

to the downside of losing 2.5 billion a year of concentrate exports.因此，与丧失一年25亿美元铜精矿出口额相比，潜在的升值空间就来自于坚持出口精炼铜矿出口。

However, there are significant gains to be made by processing other metal ores.然而，有一些可观的收入就可能来自于其他金属矿石加工。

About 94% of aluminium's final value comes from the refining and smelting stages, for example.大约94%的铝矿最终价值来自提炼和熔炼程序，例如，熔炼增加了镍矿石的价值。

Smelting adds a lot of value to nickel ore, too.但是，只要大量新的熔炉实际建成，印尼就会实现这些收入。

But Indonesia will achieve these gains only if plenty of new smelters are actually built.这些投入很昂贵，需要大量配套基础设施，Such plants are expensive, and require a lot of supporting infrastructure, such as power plants, ports and roads:Indonesiais terrible at building these.如电力，港口，道路：印尼很不擅长建造这些设施。

Moreover, world mineral prices are depressed and smelting margins are low.世界矿产价格持续低迷，熔炼利润持续走低。

Nevertheless, the government says that many new smelters are in the works.不过，政府部门称，很多熔炉都已投入使用。

China Hongqiao, that country's biggest privately owned aluminium producer, is building a 1 billion smelter in Borneo.中国虹桥公司，作为印尼最大的私有铝矿生产者，正在Borneo建造一个价值十亿美元的熔炉。

The Indonesian government says another big Chinese firm, Shandong Nanshan Aluminium, is investing 5 billion in a smelter, power plant and port on Bintan island.印尼政府说另一个大型中国公司，山东南山铝业，正投资50亿美元在Bintan岛建造熔炉，电力系统，港口。

As for nickel, when President Xi Jinping visited Indonesia last October he witnessed the signing of several agreements by Chinese firms to build smelters to produce the metal, used in making stainless steel.至于镍矿，去年十月份习近平主席拜访印尼时，见证了中国公司建熔炉生产金属制作不锈钢的协议签订。

This was a reminder of how dependentChinais on Indonesian nickel supplies, and a hint that it may be more interested in securing those supplies than in whether its companies make profits from the new smelting plants.这是一个对中国的提醒，对印尼镍矿提供有多么依赖，也是一个暗示，中国可能会对保护这些供给矿源产生更大的兴趣，而不是在乎是否这些公司真正从这些新熔炉制造中盈利。

So although export bans are generally not a good idea, and using protectionism to foster “infant industries” is a policy that has produced more failures than successes, it is not impossible thatIndonesiawill achieve its hopes of moving its natural-resources industries up the value chain.因此，尽管出口禁令总体上不算个好点子，而且使用贸易保护主义来培育“新生产业”的政策往往带来更多失败而不是成功，但印尼也有可能实现它的期望，那就是将依赖自然资源的工业绑上盈利产业链。

But at what cost in the meantime? 但是这样做的同时需要付出什么代价呢？

A little bit of resource nationalism may win Mr Yudhoyono's allies a few votes in the parliamentary elections scheduled for April and the presidential one in July.一年资源国家主义可能会为尤多约诺总统在四月份的议会选举和7月份的总统大选里赢得一些选票。

But it may lose a lot more if many smaller miners, who cannot afford to invest in smelters, close down and cut large numbers of jobs.但是也有可能失去更多的小型矿主，他们无力投资熔炉，导致倒闭和大量裁员。

If the short-term loss of export income exacerbates worries aboutIndonesia's current account, the consequences could be worse still.如果短期出口盈利损失使印尼货币贬值加剧，结局仍可能是更糟。

【经济学人】双语阅读：有线电视耗资610亿的提案

Business 商业报道

Cable television 有线电视

The 61 billion proposal 耗资610亿的提案

The latest plot twists in a continuing television drama 电视连续剧中最新的情节突转

SPURNED suitors usually nurse the wounds of rejection quietly.令人唾弃的起诉者通常悄然的治愈拒绝的伤口。

Not in the cable-television industry.Having unsuccessfully approached Time Warner Cable twice last year, Charter Communications, a rival American cable operator, has gone public with a new proposal.这并不是在电缆电视行业。美国有线电视运营商的竞争对手Charter通讯，两次试图接近时代华纳有线公司都未能成功，现在又有一个新的提案已经上市。

On January 14th Charter announced a bid valuing TWC at 61 billion including debt, offering 132.50 ashare compared with the 95 or so they were fetching early last June, when rumours of its approach emerged.1月14日charter宣布为时代华纳有限公司估价610亿，提供一个份额132.50美元相比于原来的95美元高出许多。早在去年六月这些做法就流传出来了。

Charter's boss, Tom Rutledge, wrote a public letter to Robert Marcus, the boss of TWC, beseeching him to consider the offer, and held a conference call to seek shareholders' backing for the bid.Charter的老板汤姆?拉特里奇写了一封公开信给TWC的老板罗伯特马库斯，求他考虑该提案，并举行了电话会议，以寻求股东的支持。

TWC's executives are playing hard to get: they want a higher price, and vow not to let Charter steal the company.TWC的高管们欲擒故纵，他们希望得到更高的价格，并发誓决不让charter公司窃取。

For those who have been following this cable drama, it has been a question of when, not if, the industry would consolidate.对于那些一直在遵循这种电缆剧的人来说，一直有个有关行业巩固的时间问题，而不是是否的问题。

TWC isAmerica's second-largest cable operator by subscribers, after Comcast, and Charter is the fourth-largest.TWC是继康卡斯特后的美国第二大有线电视运营商，而charter排名第四位。

John Malone, one of the industry's pioneers, whose company, Liberty Media, is Charter's biggest shareholder, is among many in the business calling for mergers.行业的先驱之一—约翰马龙，他的公司自有媒体是行业最大的股东，也是众多的业务中要求兼并的公司之一。

This would help cable firms fend off competition from satellite operators, phone companies and streaming services like Netflix, which are poaching their customers for internet service and for films and TV shows.这将帮助有线电视公司抵御来自卫星运营商，电话公司和如Netflix的流媒体服务等互联网服务对他们客户的偷猎和对电视电影节目的竞争。

Besides letting them cut costs—Charter reckons a merger with TWC could save at least 500ma year—scale would also give cable operators more clout when negotiating with content providers over the rates they have to pay to carry their channels.除了让他们削减成本，charter打算与TWC合并每年可以节省至少5亿，而且在于提供商洽谈必须支付的渠道费率时也使有线运营商更有底气。

Last year TWC got into a fight with CBS over its fees, which led to a blackout of CBS channels for a month until the two reached agreement.去年TWC与CBS战斗而花费了过多的费用，这导致CBS频道停摆了一个多月，直到两方协议达成。

TWC lost more than 300,000 customers during the third quarter, many of them as a result of this spat.TWC在第三季度失去了超过30万客户，其中不乏是因为这种争吵而出现的结果。

With its latest proposal judged still inadequate, Charter will have to decide whether to offer more.其最新的提案也有不足之处，charter将不得不决定是否要提供更多。

Other cable firms, such as Comcast, may enter the fray, offering to buy all or part of TWC.其他的有线电视公司，如comcast公司，可能会加入战斗，提供购买TWC所需的全部或部分资金。

Pay-television is not a growth business for cable operators, so they must become more creative to increase sales.付费电视并不是有线电视运营商增长业务的方式，所以他们想要增加销售必须变得更有创意。

One area of experimentation is to offer broadband along with a light television package, as several cable providers are doing in certain markets, to appeal to wallet-wise youngsters.实验的一个方面是提供宽带伴随着光的电视包装，几个有线运营商正在做某些市场，以吸引钱包鼓鼓的青少年。

Others are selling metered broadband, with the cost tied to usage.其他正在销售的计量宽带，花费和使用成本紧紧相连。

Cable firms and other internet providers may soon be free to try even more radical experiments with pricing.有线电视公司和其他互联网服务供应商们可能很快可以尝试更为激进的实验与定价。

On January 14th an appeals court struck down federal rules that required them to treat all internet traffic equally—a policy called net neutrality.1月14日上诉法院推翻了一个名为网络中立的联邦规则，这个政策要求他们对待所有互联网流量相等。

If the court's ruling prevails, this would let cable firms and other internet providers start demanding payment from bandwidth-hungry suppliers of video, such as Netflix, for speedy delivery to viewers.如果以法院的判决为准，这将让有线电视公司和其他互联网服务供应商开始要求高宽带视频用户，如Netflix快速传达给观众。

Besides giving cable firms a juicy new source of income, this could curb the expansion of an increasingly powerful group of competitors for providing packages of video content.除了给电缆公司提供收入的新来源，这可能遏制日益强大的集团竞争对手扩张提供视频内容。

The cable firms could also favour video sites in which they had an interest: for example, Comcast part-owns Hulu, a rival to Netflix.电缆公司也可能对视频网站感兴趣，例如，Netflix的竞争对手hulu—他们有用comcast的部分股权。

As any fan knows, cable-TV dramas tend to be long-running and full of plot twists.由于任何人都知道，电缆电视剧往往是长时间运行而又情节曲折，This one will probably be no different.Stay tuned.这其中可能会没什么不同。敬请关注。

【经济学人】无人驾驶飞机呼叫这里是你的地面飞行员

Science and technology 科学技术

Pilotless aircraft 无人驾驶飞机

This is your ground pilot speaking 呼叫，这里是你的地面飞行员

Autonomous civil aircraft could be flying before cars go driverless 民用飞机会先于汽车实现无人驾驶

WITHIN the next few weeks a twin-engined Jetstream will take off from Warton Aerodrome in Lancashire, England, and head north towards Scotland.在接下来的几周里，一架双引擎飞机喷流将会从英格兰兰开夏郡的沃顿机场起飞，向北飞往苏格兰。

Like any other flight, the small commuter airliner will respond to instructions from air-traffic controllers, navigate a path and take care to avoid other aircraft.与其他班机一样，这架小型通勤客机将会根据空中交通管制员的指示，沿着一条航路飞行，注意避开其他飞机。

But the pilot flying the aircraft will not be in the cockpit: he will have his feet firmly on the ground in a control room back at Warton.但是驾驶这架飞机的飞行员却没在驾驶舱里：他在沃顿机场的一个控制室里驾驶着飞机，双脚仍然稳稳地踩在地面上。

Pilotless aircraft are now widely used by the armed forces, but those drones fly only in restricted airspace and conflict zones.无人机现在已广泛应用于军队之中，但这些无人机仅用于在禁飞区及冲突地区。

The Jetstream mission is part of a project to develop the technologies and procedures that will allow large commercial aircraft to operate routinely and safely without pilots in the same skies as manned civilian flights.而喷流的任务是某个技术及程序开发项目的一部分，该项目的目的在于能让大型商用飞机在没有飞行员的情况下安全的进行常规飞行，与有人驾驶的民航班机在同一片天空中飞行。

Fasten your seat belts 系紧您的安全带

To reassure those of a nervous disposition, the test flights do not carry passengers and pilots remain in the cockpit just in case things go wrong.为了让那些神经质的人安心，测试的飞机不会有乘客，驾驶舱中仍然有驾驶员以防万一，In that way they are similar to Google’s trials of driverless cars, which have drivers inside them to take over if necessary while on public roads.这有点类似于谷歌无人驾驶汽车的实验，在公路上行驶时，如有必要，车中的驾驶员可以控制汽车。

Yet unmanned commercial aircraft are likely to enter service before people can buy autonomous cars.但是无人驾驶的商用飞机很可能在人们可以买到无人驾驶汽车前便能投入使用。

Modern aircraft are already perfectly capable of automatically taking off, flying to a destination and landing.现代的飞机已经完全有能力进行自动起飞，自动飞往目的地，自动着陆。

These tests are trying to establish whether they can do those things safely without a pilot in the cockpit and at the same time comply with the rules of the air.而要进行的测试是想确认在驾驶舱没有飞行员的情况下，飞机能否在遵守飞行规则的同时，还能安全的完成以上三件事情。

Progress is being made, a conference in London heard this week.笔者本周从在伦敦召开的一次会议上获悉，事情正在取得进展。

It was organised by the Autonomous Systems Technology Related Airborne Evaluation and Assessment, the group staging the British test flights.本次会议是由机载无人系统技术评审组织举办的，就是该组织在英国进行了无人机测试。

This 62m programme, backed by the British government, involves seven European aerospace companies: 该项目获得了英国政府的支持，投资达六千两百万英镑，共有七家欧洲的航空工业公司参与其中：

AOS, BAE Systems, Cassidian, Cobham, QinetiQ, Rolls-Royce and Thales.机载观测系统公司，英国宇航系统公司，凯西典公司，科巴姆公司，奎奈蒂克公司，劳特莱斯公司及泰雷兹公司。

It is potentially a huge new market.这是一个潜在的巨大新兴市场。

America’s aviation regulators have been asked by Congress to integrate unmanned aircraft into the air-traffic control system as early as 2015.美国国会已要求该国的航空协调员要在2015年将无人驾驶飞机加入空中交通管制系统。

Some small drones are already used in commercial applications, such as aerial photography, but in most countries they are confined to flying within sight of their ground pilot, much like radio-controlled model aircraft.有些小型无人机已经应用于航拍等商业用途，但在大多数国家，小型无人机的飞行范围被限制在其地面飞行员的视野以内，很像无线电遥控的模型飞机。

Bigger aircraft would be capable of flying farther and doing a lot more things.再大一点的无人机能够飞的更远一些，可以做更多的事情。

Pilotless aircraft could carry out many jobs at a lower cost than manned aircraft and helicopters—tasks such as traffic monitoring, border patrols, police surveillance and checking power lines.无人驾驶飞机可以完成很多工作，并且比有人驾驶的飞机和直升机成本更低，比如说交通监测，边境巡逻，警务监视及电缆检查等任务。

They could also operate in conditions that are dangerous for pilots, including monitoring forest fires or nuclear-power accidents.无人机还可以在对飞行员有危险的环境下工作，包括监视森林火灾或核电事故。

And they could fly extended missions for search and rescue, environmental monitoring or even provide temporary airborne Wi-Fi and mobile-phone services.而且无人机还可以执行更多的任务，如搜索救援，环境监测，甚至提供临时的机载无线网络和移动电话服务。

Some analysts think the global civilian market for unmanned aircraft and services could be worth more than $50 billion by 2020.有分析师认为，到2020年，无人驾驶飞机及其服务的全球民用市场的价值可超过500亿美元。

Whatever happens, pilots will still have a role in aviation, although not necessarily in the cockpit.无论发生什么，飞行员仍会在航空业占有一席之地，虽然不一定是在驾驶舱里。

As far as the eye can see there will always be a pilot in command of an aircraft, says Lambert Dopping-Hepenstal, the director of ASTRAEA.在可以预见的未来，飞机一直都会由飞行员掌控，ASTRAEA的主任Lambert Dopping-Hepenstal说，But that pilot may be on the ground and he may be looking after more than one unmanned aircraft at the same time.但飞行员或许会留在地面上，有可能同时照看好几架无人机。

Commercial flights carrying freight and express parcels might one day also lose their on-board pilots.运送货物和快递包裹的商用飞机某天也可能会失去其随机的飞行员。

But would even the most penny-pinching cut-price airline be able to sell tickets to passengers on flights that have an empty cockpit? 但就算廉价航空公司再怎么精打细算，它能把没有飞行员的飞机的机票卖出去吗？

More realistically, those flights might have just one pilot in the future.更现实点说，未来的商用飞机可能只有一名飞行员。

Technology has already relieved the flight deck of a number of jobs.飞行班组的许多职位已经被技术取代了。

Many early large aircraft had a crew of five: two pilots, a flight engineer, a navigator and a radio operator.许多早期的大型飞机上有五名机组成员：两名飞行员，一名飞行机师，一名领航员及一名无线电话务员。

First the radio operator went, then the navigator, and by the time the jet era was well under way in the 1970s flight engineers began to disappear too.最先是无线电话务员消失了，然后是领航员，等到了20世纪70年代，进入喷气机时代后，飞行机师也消失了。

Next it could be the co-pilot, replaced by the autonomous flight systems now being developed.下一个消失的会是副驾驶，被现在正在开发中的自主飞行系统取代。

The flight over Scotland will test how well air-traffic controllers can communicate with the ground pilot through the aircraft.在那架飞往苏格兰的飞机上将会测试空中交通管制员通过飞机与其地面飞行员通话的质量。

The project is also exploring ways to make the radio and satellite links secure and reliable.该项目还在探寻使无线电及卫星连接安全可靠的方法。

But engineers still have to prepare for the eventuality that the link breaks;the aircraft then has to have enough autonomy to operate safely until communications are restored or it can land using its own guidance systems.但是工程师仍必须为连接中断的可能性做好准备；然后飞机必须要有足够的自主权来保证飞行安全，直至通讯恢复正常，或者能够使用自己的导航系统着陆。

Unmanned aircraft will, therefore, need a sense and avoid capability.因此无人驾驶飞机需要感应并规避的能力。

This can be provided by transponders that bleep the aircraft’s presence to other aeroplanes and air-traffic controllers.异频雷达收发机便具备这一功能，它会发出哔哔声来提示其它飞机及空中交通管制员本飞机的存在。

But not all manned aircraft have such kit.但并非所有的有人驾驶飞机都有该功能。

Some light aircraft and gliders operating at low altitudes in clear weather are not required to have even radios, let alone transponders or radar.一些在晴朗天气下进行低空飞行的轻型飞机和滑翔机甚至不需要无线电，更别提异频雷达收发机或雷达了。

Which is why pilots keep their eyes peeled when such traffic might be about.这也是为什么在可能发生这种情况时，飞行员要时刻保持警惕。

ASTRAEA’s Jetstream, therefore, also uses video cameras to allow the ground pilot to look around outside the cockpit.因此ASTRAEA的捷流号还使用了摄像头以便使地面飞行员可以查看驾驶舱外的情况。

Image-recognition software can warn of other aircraft.影像识别软件可以在出现其它飞机时发出警告，This is being tested against different backgrounds, such as a cluttered landscape or a hazy sky.目前正在不同的环境下对该功能进行测试，如地形复杂或天空雾蒙蒙的环境。

In other trials, different aircraft are being flown in the vicinity of the Jetstream, and some of them will be flown deliberately towards it on a potential collision course, to see if these intruding aircraft can be recognised by the automated systems and the appropriate avoiding action taken.在其它的试验中，不同的飞机飞至捷流附近，其中几架故意以可能与之相撞的航线飞向捷流，以测试自动系统能否识别这些入侵的飞机并采取适当的规避措施。

These flights are taking place in an area cleared of other aircraft over the Irish Sea.以上飞行测试是在爱尔兰海上空一片没有其它飞机经过的空域进行的。

The results to date suggest you can do sense-and-avoid as well as a human, says Mr Dopping-Hepenstal.迄今为止的测试结果表明系统的感应并规避的能力能做到和人一样，Dopping-Hepensta说。

A pilotless plane must also be able to act autonomously in an emergency.在发生紧急状况时，无人机必须能够自行采取行动。

In the event of an engine failure, for instance, it could use its navigational map to locate a suitable area to put down.比如，如果一台引擎发生故障，无人机需要使用其航行图来找到合适地点降落。

But what if this was an open field that happened to be in use for, say, a fair? 但如果其选择的空地恰好被占用了，比如说成了集市，怎么办？

A forward-looking video camera might show a ground pilot that.此时前视摄像头会将此影像传给地面飞行员。

But if communications were lost the aircraft would rely on image-recognition software and an infra-red camera to detect the heat given off by people and machines and so decide to try to land elsewhere.但如果通讯中断，飞机将依靠影像识别软件及红外摄像头来感知人或机器发出的热量，以此来决定去其它地点降落。

The ASTRAEA researchers are carrying out a lot of their work using flight simulators and air-traffic-control data.ASTRAEA的研究人员的许多工作都是通过飞行模拟装置及空中交通管制数据来完成的。

But eventually they will still have to prove that their systems can work in the real world—even during emergency landings.但最终他们还是要证明他们的系统要能应用在现实的世界里，甚至在紧急迫降时也能使用。

In order to satisfy risk-averse aviation regulators, the researchers are working with Britain’s Civil Aviation Authority to certify a virtual pilotless aircraft for use in civil airspace.为了让民航协调员在规避风险方面满意，研究人员与英国民航局一起验证了虚拟的无人机用于民用空域的可行性，The intention is not to certify an actual aircraft, but for both sides to learn what will be required to do so.其目的并非是要对真正的无人机进行验证，而是为了让双方了解需要为此做些什么。

Some of the technologies being developed are also likely to find their way into manned aircraft as a backup for pilots, and possibly for cars too.开发出来技术中有一些可能作为飞行员的后备而应用到有人驾驶飞机，还有可能应用到汽车上。

Systems that provide automatic braking and motorway-lane control, for instance, already feature in many types of car.例如，许多种的汽车都已经配备了自动刹车及公路车道控制系统。

These features take cars some of the way towards autonomy.这些功能让汽车走上了无人驾驶之路。

But driverless cars, like pilotless planes, will have to fit in with existing infrastructure and regulations, not least insurance liability, before they can take off.但是无人驾驶汽车与无人驾驶飞机一样，在出发前，需要先符合现有的基础设施及规章，尤其是明确保险责任。

【经济学人】双语阅读：巴基斯坦的军事力量，失去驾驶权的司机

Asia

亚洲中国

Pakistan's armed forces 巴基斯坦的军事力量

Out of the driving seat 失去驾驶权的司机

The prime minister wants to put the army in its place 巴基斯坦的总统想要把军队置于此地。

IT IS said that the army chief is the most powerful man in Pakistan.据称军队总司令是巴基斯坦权利最大的人。

Even so, the prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, made a point of keeping the new head waiting for as long as possible.至于说，侯赛因总统提出想见这位总司令都要加入其等待长队的行列。

Breaking with the convention that gives the new chief a month or two to prepare, Mr Sharif named a successor just two days before the outgoing chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, a former spymaster turned double-term army chief, was due to retire.被中断的大会告诉新总统，给他两个月去准备，在前任军方总司令离职后，侯赛因总统任命了继承人。前总司令卡亚尼曾任一位担任两个军队的司令，前任间谍领头。他面临退休而不得不离开岗位。

Lieutenant General Raheel Sharif will now control not only a vast army and the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal, but a business empire ranging from cornflakes to luxury housing.拉赫利·谢里夫不将会主宰多方位的军队，还会掌权逐渐扩张的核能军火库。

So why the delay?

为什么推迟了如此久才定音?

The prime minister is not always decisive, and bear in mind that the last time he picked an army chief, Pervez Musharraf in 1998, his appointee ousted him in a coup a year later.总统也不是神，永远能够很快地做出有效的决定。在1988年，在经过慎重考虑之后，侯赛因总统任命佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫作为军方总司令，而他的上司，那个指定他的人，在过后的几年将他罢职。

Others, however, suspect an attempt by Mr Sharif to assert civilian authority over an army that needs to be put in its place.有些人怀疑谢里夫想要维持文官权利高于军队，所以不得不做到这步。

The army sees itself as both embodiment and guarantor of the nation.军队认为他们是既国家的捍卫者又是国家的化身。

Yet it has long been at the root of Pakistan's deepest problems.尽管这长时间以来一直是巴基斯坦最根本的问题。

By meddling in elections and mounting coups, it has weakened the political classes, whose consequent ineptitude and corruption gives it cause to meddle again.通过一系列的干预竞选和愈加剧烈的政变，政治阶级已经被削弱。而紧接着的便是无能和不称职公仆和不断的贿赂，这又导致了再一次政治干预。

It has a history of disastrous military adventures.在历史上记载着一次军队灾难性的经历。

And it has made common cause with militant Islamists who it hoped would further its interests abroad—keeping India on edge to the south and sowing confusion in Afghanistan to the north in hopes of preventing anti-Pakistan forces growing there.而原因是同样的—穆斯林军人想要对外扩张，取得更多利益—把印度置于南方的边际，在阿富汗的北面散布迷惑信息，以防止反巴基斯坦势力上涨。

The country is now paying a terrible price for its sponsorship of foreign terror.目前，巴基斯坦在国际反恐活动中提供了高得离谱的资助，It has spawned dozens of local extremist groups attacking Pakistan itself.这却导致多数的巴基斯坦本地极端分子集团攻击本国人。

Since 2001 nearly 50,000 Pakistanis have died in terror-related violence.自2001年起，已经有五十万巴基斯坦人民由于恐怖分子引发的相关犯罪事件而死亡。

For a long time the generals refused to see the Islamists for the threat they are.很长一段时间来，高层们一直不承认穆斯林分子对他们来说是一个威胁的存在。

Officers from the army's spy wing, Inter-Services Intelligence, were probably involved in funding and planning deadly attacks in Mumbai in 2008 carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba.2008年，一群出自情报局的军方间谍在孟买被虔诚军袭击致死。

General Kayani may have been as bad as the rest.当时的总司令卡亚尼可能已经看出其他穆斯林分子也将跟虔诚军一样顽劣。

While he was rising to the top, the Afghan Taliban regrouped, the Mumbai attacks were planned, and Osama bin Laden settled in a garrison town.于是当他的权利处于上位时，阿富汗塔利班的军队被重新部署，孟买袭击在当时也开始进行策划。当时本拉登被安置在驻防区的小镇里。

Yet along the way the soldier-spy grew into the pragmatist committed to getting the army out of the driving seat and nurturing Pakistan's return to democracy.然而，伪装成士兵的间谍务实地保证，要将军队撵出独裁，主导之位，要使巴基斯坦重回民主之路。

He and Mr Sharif seem to have got on, while the Americans respected him.此人和总司令已有交手，而美国人表现出更尊重他。

Crucially, says Asad Munir, a retired ISI brigadier, he began to understand the nature of the existential threat posed by militant Islam.重要的是，前情报局参谋长穆尼尔说，他已经明白，目前存在的威胁本质就是穆斯林军人。

Military force is required to take it on, particularly in North Waziristan, a tribal area which an alphabet soup of al-Qaeda affiliates have made their base.军方势力要求要掌握在手，特别是部落地区北瓦齐里斯坦，是一碗基于附属基地组织的字母汤

General Sharif's appointment was a surprise.总司令谢里夫的任命是很令人惊讶的。

But the good news is that he shares General Kayani's thinking on domestic militancy.但是值得一喜的是，他前前总司令卡亚尼交流了关于国内军事力量的想法。

In charge of army training, he was closely involved in efforts to retool an army trained for set-piece battles with India for counter-insurgency in the country's wild tribal west.他想要接近于重组一支训练有素的军队，为巴基斯坦西面广阔的部落地带与印度的反动起义战争定下筹码。

Like General Kayani, he knows first-hand the futility of peace accords that militant groups soon renege on.前总司令卡亚尼知道，无战争代价的和平定将带来无效的回应——对方军队一定很快就会食言。

The problem is that the prime minister has yet to produce a national counter-terrorism strategy and says

peace talks must be tried first.而问题就是，侯赛因总统已经将国内反恐怖主义战略定案，同时宣称，必须先保证和平。

It is a cause with minimal chance of success, but one hotly promoted by much of the political establishment.尽管这只是一个非常难以成功的方案，但是政治大量完善与建成被激烈地推崇。

Many more innocent lives may have to be lost before the politicians find the nerve for a military solution.在政治家发想要运用军事能够解决问题之前，可能很多无辜的生命都将面临着牺牲。

Elsewhere irritation with civilian government is already flowering among junior officers.But there is no mood to take over.公民政府的无理取闹已经在老一辈的官员里传开，可是没有人有此闲情雅致去掌权。

Mr Musharraf's eight years in power were a disaster.穆沙拉夫八年执政便是场灾难军方不可挑战的高高权威已经引起了广播的大肆宣传。

The army's once-unchallenged authority has leeched away to a set of rambunctiousbroadcast media, an activist supreme court and civilian politicians who this year successfully transferred power from one elected government to another—a first for Pakistan.Good governance is the best way for civilian rulers to keep the army off their backs.一位最高法院激进的官员第在巴基斯坦在一个政府的倒戈，另一个政权的崛起之下，成功转移了自己的实力。对于秩序制定者来说，一个好的政府应该把军队控制之下而非之上。

Still, the army can always play a spoiling game, especially when it comes to relations with India.依然地，军队一直在玩扫兴的游戏，特别是在与印度的关系上。

It makes no secret of despising Mr Sharif's enthusiasm for a rapid normalisation of relations, and opposes a crucial free-trade deal.这是正大光明地鄙视谢里夫热忱于对社会秩序的塑造，反对自由贸易的重要则曾。

And even as Mr Sharif dreams of visa-less travel across the Indo-Pakistani border, after years of relative calm the ceasefire line in contested Kashmir has become hot again.就当谢里夫梦想穿越巴基斯坦-印度边际不需要签证时，缓和多年熄战线现在又热了起来。

The officers probably deserve some of the blame for that.以这方面而言，责备，是政府应得的。

【经济学人】双语阅读：表观遗传学与健康，祖母的诅咒

Science and technology 科学技术

Epigenetics and health 表观遗传学与健康

Grandma's curse 祖母的诅咒

Some of the effects of smoking may be passed from grandmother to grandchild 祖母吸烟产生的影响可以会遗传至孙子或孙女

Think of your grandchildren!想想你的孙辈吧!

ONE of biology's hottest topics is epigenetics.当今生物学最热的话题之一是表观遗传学，The term itself covers a multitude of sins.这个术语本身就涵盖了许多宗罪。

Strictly speaking, it refers to the regulation of gene expression by the chemical modification of DNA, or of the histone proteins in which DNA is usually wrapped.严格来说，表观遗传学研究的是DNA或含有DNA的组蛋白化学改性中的基因表达调控现象。

This modification is either the addition of methyl groups to the DNA or of acetyl groups to the histones.这种改性或者是甲基增至DNA中，或者是乙酰基增加到组蛋白中。

Methylation switches genes off.甲基化作用关闭基因，Acetylation switches them on.乙酰化作用启动基因。

Since, in a multicellular organism, different cells need different genes to be active, such regulation is vital.由于在多细胞有机体中，不同的细胞需要借助不同的基因以激活自身，所以这种调控至关重要。

What has got a lot of people excited, though, is the idea that epigenetic switches might be transmitted down the generations.但令人兴奋的是，有观点认为，表观遗传现象中的基因表达调控功能有可能世代相传。

Some see this as contrary to Darwinism, since it would permit characteristics acquired during an organism's lifetime to be passed on to its offspring, as suggested by a rival theory of evolution put forward by Jean-Baptiste Lamarck.有些人将之视为对达尔文学说的反证，因为这将允许有机体存活期间所获得的特征遗传给后代，正如法国著名生物学家让巴蒂斯特拉马克所提出的与进化论相对的学说。

This is an exaggeration.这种想法有些夸张了。

The DNA sequence itself is not being permanently altered.基因序列不会一直变化，Even those epigenetic changes that are inherited seem to be subsequently reversible.甚至那些表观遗传学意义上的变化遗传给下一代后，似乎仍然存在可逆性。

But the idea that acquired characteristics can be inherited at all is still an important and novel one, and a worrying example of the phenomenon has been published this week in BioMed Central Medicine.但是，因表观遗传现象所获得的特征完全可以遗传的观点仍然新颖且重要。本周，BioMed Central Medicine刊出了一项研究，可例证这一现象，其结果令人担忧。

The study in question, by Virender Rehan of the Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute, and his colleagues, was of the intergenerational effects of nicotine.该项研究是由洛杉矶生物医学研究所的Virender Rehan和他的同事们开展的，研究的是尼古丁的代际影响。

It was done in rats, but a rat's physiology is sufficiently similar to a human's to suspect the same thing may be true in Homo sapiens.研究人员虽然在大鼠身上进行实验，但因为大鼠的生理机能与人类十分相像，所以研究人员怀疑对于大鼠的研究结果可能同样适用于智人。

In a nutshell, Dr Rehan showed that if pregnant rats are exposed to nicotine, not only will their offspring develop the asthma induced by this drug, so will the offspring of those offspring.简而言之，Rehan博士想说明的是，如果大鼠怀孕时接触尼古丁，不仅下一代会因此患上哮喘，第三代也会深受其害。

Dr Rehan and his team injected their rats with nicotine when they were six days pregnant.Rehan博士和他的团队在大鼠怀孕的第六天为其注射尼古丁。

They then allowed them to give birth and raised the pups to the age of three weeks, before some were examined.大鼠的后代出生后，由母鼠养育三周。

The rest were allowed to mature and breed, and their own offspring were similarly examined.然后研究人员选取一部分后代进行检查，其余的第二代大鼠继续生长繁殖，最后研究人员对第三代大鼠进行类似的检验。

There was, however, no further administration of nicotine.但是，第二代大鼠在妊娠期间，不再被注射尼古丁。

The pups of the treated mothers had asthmatic lungs.检测发现，被注射尼古丁的母鼠所繁殖的第二代大鼠肺部有哮喘病变。

The organs' airways were constricted, 大鼠肺部的气道处于收缩状态。

and molecular analysis showed abnormally high levels of fibronectin and collagen—which would stiffen the lung tissue—and also high levels of receptor molecules for nicotine.经过分子分析发现，大鼠肺部的纤维连接蛋白和胶原蛋白含量异常升高，这将导致肺组织硬化;同时尼古丁受体分子增加。

That was expected, since the developing embryos were exposed to the nicotine when their mothers were treated.结果表明，母鼠被注射尼古丁后，其后代在胚胎发育时期就会受尼古丁的影响，这一结果正如预期。

However, when the team did similar tests on the grand-offspring of the treated mothers, they got similar results.但是，当研究团队对第三代大鼠进行类似检查时，发现了同样的情况，Those grand-offspring had not been exposed to nicotine.即使这些第三代大鼠并没有接触尼古丁。

The cause of the grand-offsprings' asthma, Dr Rehan believes, is epigenetic modification.Rehan博士认为，第三代大鼠的哮喘是表观遗传中的改性现象。

Nicotine is not only affecting lung cells, but also affecting sex cells in ways that cause the lungs which ultimately develop from those cells to express their genes in the same abnormal ways.尼古丁不仅侵袭肺部细胞，还会影响生殖细胞，使得生殖细胞在发育器官时，在肺部异常表达基因，导致新发育的肺部同样受到尼古丁的不良影响。

Exactly what those epigenetic changes are is hard to track down.表观遗传现象具体引起了哪种变化，目前难以获知。

The team have started looking, but could find no clear pattern except that one form of nicotine-induced acetylation, that of H3 histones, could be blocked by a molecule called RGZ.研究团队已经开始研究这一问题，但目前只研究出一种明确的模式：尼古丁会引起H3组蛋白的乙酰化，This molecule is also known to protect lungs against the asthma-causing effects of nicotine.进而导致一种叫做RGZ的分子受到抑制，而目前已知RGZ分子可以保护肺脏，使其免受由尼古丁引起的哮喘。

That suggests it is the acetylation of H3 histones rather than the methylation of DNA itself that is creating the effect.这表明由尼古丁引起的哮喘是源于H3组蛋白的乙酰化，而非DNA自身的甲基化作用。

Which crucial genes these histones surround remains obscure.研究团队目前没有研究出这些受影响的组蛋白包含着哪些关键基因，Nor have the team yet found out whether the epigenetic effect they have discovered reaches further than grand-offspring.也没有发现表观遗传的影响是否会延续至第三代以下的后代。

If it does, though, it suggests that epigenetics really might act like the biblical curse:

然而，如果有研究表明后生效应会世代相传的话，这就表明表观遗传现象真真是有如圣经上的诅咒：

that the sins of the fathers will be visited on the sons, even unto the third and fourth generations.父辈的罪孽，会降罪至他们的下一代身上，甚至会延续至第三代或者第四代。

【经济学人】双语阅读：超级计算更深奥的思维

Science and technology 科学技术

Supercomputing 超级计算

Deeper thought 更深奥的思维

The world has a new fastest computer, thanks to video games 多亏电子游戏，让世界拥有了一台新的最快的计算机

The ultimate games machine 终极游戏机

SPEED fanatics that they are, computer nerds like to check the website of Top500, a collaboration between German and American computer scientists that keeps tabs on which of the world's supercomputers is the fastest.作为速度控，电脑迷们喜欢查看Top500的网站，该网站是由德国和美国的计算机科学家合办，记录世界上最快的超级计算机。

On November 12th the website released its latest list, and unveiled a new champion.11月12日，该网站发布了最新榜单，揭开了新一任冠军的面纱。

The computer in question is called Titan, and it lives at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in Tennessee.获得冠军的计算机名为泰坦，居于田纳西州的橡树岭国家实验室，It took first place from another American machine, IBM's Sequoia, which is housed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in California.它是击败了另一台美国的计算机-IBM的红杉而取得冠军的，红杉位于加利福尼亚州的劳伦斯利物莫国家实验室。

These two machines have helped reassert America's dominance of a list that had, in the past few years, been headed by computers from China and Japan.这两台计算机使美国重新在Top500榜单上获得优势地位，而在过去数年，中国和日本的计算机一直雄踞榜首。

Titan is different from the previous champion in several ways.泰坦与之前的冠军在多个方面均有所不同。

For one thing, it is an open system, meaning that scientific researchers with sufficiently thorny problems will be able to bid for time on it, in much the same way that astronomers can bid for time on telescopes.其一，它是一个开放的系统，意味着科研人员可以争取泰坦的使用时间来解决非常棘手的问题，与天文学家争取天文望远镜使用时间的方式差不多。

Sequoia, by contrast, spends most of its time running hush-hush simulations of exploding nuclear weapons, and is therefore rarely available for public use.相比之下，红杉将其大多数时间用在绝密的核武器爆炸模拟上，因此很少用于公共用途。

Titan has an unusual design, too.泰坦的设计也与众不同。

All supercomputers are composed of thousands of processor chips harnessed together.所有的超级计算机是由成千上万个处理芯片连在一起组成的。

Often, these are derivatives of the central processing units, or CPUs, that sit at the heart of modern, desktop machines.这些芯片通常都是由现代台式电脑的心脏-中央处理器，即CPU，衍生出来的。

But Titan derives the majority of its oomph—more than 90%—from technology originally developed for the video-game industry.但是泰坦的大部分性能源于最初由电子游戏行业开发出来的技术。

Half of its 37,376 processors are ordinary CPUs.泰坦有37376个处理器，其中一半是普通CPU，But the other half are graphics processing units, or GPUs.但另外一半是图形处理器，即GPU。

These are specialised devices designed to cope with modern video games, which are some of the most demanding applications any home machine is ever likely to run.GPU是用于处理现代电子游戏的专业设备，其中一些要求最苛刻的游戏甚至都没有家用机能运行起来。

China's TianHe-1 machine, a previous Top500 champion, was built in the same way, as are 60 other machines in the Top500 list.前Top500冠军，中国的天河1号也是采用同样的方式搭建的，Top500榜单中还有60台计算机也是用此方式搭建的。

Parallel worlds 并行的世界

Broadly speaking, a CPU—which will be expected to run everything from spreadsheets to voice-recognition software to encoded video—has to be a generalist, competent at every sort of mathematical task but excelling at nothing.从广义上说，一个CPU—被寄予运行一切事物的厚望，从电子表格到语音视频软件，再到解码视频—必须成为一个全能选手，要胜任所有类型的数学计算任务，但却无一精通。

A GPU, by contrast, is designed to excel at one thing only: manipulating huge numbers of the

triangles out of which all modern computer graphics are made.相比之下，GPU就是为专精一件事而特别设计的：操控大量的三角形，所有现代计算机的图形都是由这些三角形构成的。

Several years ago researchers at Nvidia and AMD realised that many scientific problems which demand huge amounts of computing power—everything from climate simulations and modelling combustion in an engine to seismic analysis for the oil-and-gas industry—could be translated into a form that was digestible by their GPUs.几年前，英伟达及超微半导体的研究人员意识到许多需要大量运算能力的科学问题—从气候模拟及发动机燃烧方式建模到油气行业的抗震分析—都可以转译成GPU可以理解的形式。

Soon after, supercomputer builders such as Cray began to take notice.此后不久，这开始引起了超级计算机制造商的注意，如克雷。

Borrowing from the games industry in this way brings several benefits.One big one is efficiency.以这种方式借鉴游戏行业的技术带来诸多好处。最大的一个好处是效能。

Titan is an upgrade of Oak Ridge's existing Jaguar machine.泰坦是橡树岭现有的美洲虎超级计算机的升级版。

Upgrading Jaguar with ordinary CPUs would have meant building a computer that sucked around 30MW of electricity when running flat out—enough juice to power a small town.如使用普通的CPU对美洲虎进行升级，则意味着升级后的计算机在全速运行时将会狂饮大约30MW的电力，这么多电力供给一个小镇都绰绰有余。

Because GPUs are so good at their specialised tasks, Titan can achieve its blistering performance while sipping a modest 8.2MW.由于GPU非常擅长处理专门性务，泰坦在达到最高性能时只是抿掉8.2MW的电力，不算太多。

It makes sense financially, too, says Sumit Gupta, head of supercomputing at Nvidia.使用GPU从经济上说也颇有意义，英伟达超级计算业务的负责人苏米特古普塔称。

The chips that the firm sells to supercomputer-makers are almost identical to those it sells to gamers.英伟达销售给超级计算机制造商的GPU几乎与销售给游戏玩家的GPU完全相同。

As Dr Gupta observes, The history of high-performance computing is littered with the bodies of firms that tried to build products just for the supercomputing market.据古普塔博士观察，在高性能运算的历史上，遍布着那些只想为超级计算机市场提供产品的公司的尸体，By itself, it's just too small a niche.就其自身而言，这个利基市场太过狭小了。

It is not all upsides, though.然而使用GPU也有不利的一面。

Machines like Titan achieve their speed by breaking a problem into thousands of tiny pieces and farming each out to a single processor.泰坦这类计算机是将一个问题打散为成千上万个小碎片，然后将每个小碎片分发给单独的处理器运算，从而达到其很高的运算速度。

A helpful analogy, perhaps, is painting a house: one strategy might be to hire a single painter, but it is probably quicker to employ several people and give each a room to do.或许将其比喻为粉刷房子有助于理解：一种策略是只雇用一名粉刷工，但是多雇几个粉刷工，然后每人刷一个房间很可能会更快一点。

Not all problems are susceptible to being chopped up in such a way, though.然而不是所有的问题都能以这种方式切分。

The requirement to translate a problem into the sort of mathematics that a GPU can digest adds another barrier.而将一个问题转译为GPU可以理解的那中数学运算问题也是一个障碍。

Dr Gupta gives the example of the models used to simulate how a car will react in a crash as one problem that has so far resisted what the industry calls the massively parallel approach.古普塔博士举了模拟汽车碰撞的模型的例子，解决该问题目前仍需采用被行业称为大规模并行的方法。

Clever programmers can sometimes find a way around such issues: ray-tracing, a high-quality, mathematically intense approach to computer graphics that aims to simulate individual light rays, was, ironically, long thought to be the kind of problem that a modern GPU would struggle with.聪明的程序员有时能够找到绕过这种问题的方法：射线追踪，是一种针对电脑图形的高质量，数学运算频繁的方法，目的是模拟单独的光线。但讽刺的是，射线追踪一直被认为是现代GPU难以处理的一类问题，Yet at a graphics conference in 2008, a group of researchers from Nvidia announced that they had, nevertheless, found a way to do it.但在2008年的一次图形大会上，一个来自英伟达的研究团队宣布，尽管这类问题很难，但他们还是找到了处理的方法。

Oak Ridge and Nvidia plan to work with scientists wanting time on Titan to see if their algorithms can be tweaked in similar ways, to make them digestible by the new machine.橡树岭和英伟达计划和想要使用泰坦的科学家合作，来检查这些科学家的算法是否能够以类似的方式进行微调，使新计算机能够理解这些算法。

Dr Gupta is bullish.古普塔博士对其表示乐观。

Even the recalcitrant car-crash simulations, he thinks, will yield to the new approach soon.他认为，即便是顽固的汽车碰撞模拟问题不久也会出现新的解决方法。

But that is not to say that every problem can be made to work.但这并不是说所有的问题都能解决。

And those scientists who find that they cannot tweak their code may find themselves struggling to take advantage of the ever-rising performance of the world's fastest computers.对于无法对其编码进行微调的科学家来说，会发现他们很难去利用世界上最快的计算机们不断提升的性能。

【经济学人】双语阅读：德国公司不幸的商业

Business 商业报道

German companies 德国公司

An unhappy business 不幸的商业

The new government's reforms worry German bosses 新政府改革使德国企业的老板们担心不已

FOR German businesses, the elections were bad enough.对于德国的商业来说，这次的选举真的糟糕透了。

In September voters denied the business-friendly, small-government Free Democrats the 5% of the vote required to stay both in parliament and in the centre-right coalition government.九月份投票者拒绝了对商业友好、小政府型的需要5%投票继续在过会和右翼联盟中待下去的自由民主党员们。

The election result has led to a grand coalition between Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, its Bavarian sister-party, the Christian Social Union, and the leftish Social Democrats.这个选举结果引发了默克尔的基督民主联盟及它的巴伐利亚姐妹党，基督社会联盟和左倾的社会民主党的大联盟。

Though the SPD finished well behind the CDU-CSU, their coalition agreement, signed at the end of November, looks to many like a wishlist for the left.尽管跟社会民主党的联合结束远远在CDU-CSU后面，他们的联合协议，11月末尾签字，看上去更像一个左派的愿望单。

Business and financial leaders are barely bothering to conceal their disappointment at a new national minimum wage, increased pension payments, lower retirement ages for some workers and new pension entitlements for some stay-at-home mothers.商业和金融领导者们几乎不费劲去隐藏他们对新的全国最低工资、增加了的退休金、对某些工人更低的退休年龄和对一些在家母亲生活津贴权益的失望之情。

The head of the Federation of German Industry, Ulrich Grillo, called it a wasted chance that would submit the German economy to new stress tests.德国工业联合会首领，Ulrich Grillo，称之为可能会导致德国经济面临一个新的严峻考验的机会浪费。

The Cologne Institute for Economic Research has compared the agreement to a cheque without the funds to cover it.科隆经济研究所将这个协议比作为一个没有资金担保的支票。

Company bosses are more circumspect than leaders of industry bodies about criticising Mrs Merkel publicly.But they too are wary.公司老板们比工业团体领导人们在公开批评默克尔女士上更加的谨慎。但是他们太小心翼翼了。

One German chief executive complains that the chancellor ignored structural reform when she had a business-friendly partner in the Free Democrats, and frets that she can hardly be expected to find new courage with the SPD.一个德国首席执行官抱怨道当她在自由民主党人中有一个对商业友好的伙伴，总理可能会忽略结构性改革，并且他担心道可能很难期待她在SPD的伴随下找到新的勇气。

A lobbyist for another big company says that with the Free Democrats you didn't need an interpreter to explain industry's concerns to the government, but now he fears he will.另一家大公司的一个游说者说道有德国自由民主党人的话你不需要一个翻译者去解释政府的工业关注点，但是现在他担心他需要了。

He grumbles that Mrs Merkel understands the importance of a free economy but does not actually understand what it means.他抱怨道默克尔女士明白一个自由经济的重要性但是她可能并未真正懂它的含义。

He even praises Gerhard Schr?der, Mrs Merkel's predecessor and a Social Democrat.他甚至赞赏格哈德施罗德，默克尔女士的前任和一个社会民主党人。

Mr Schrder would listen, ask questions, and then say I can do this;I can't do that.施罗德会听、问问题然后接着说我可以做这个；我不能做那个。

Mrs Merkel does listen carefully—but then keeps her own counsel.默克尔女士确实听得很认真——但是接着保持她自己的想法。

The CDU-CSU has kept one promise: the coalition treaty pledges not to raise taxes, which the parties of the left all favour.CDU-CSU联盟保证一个承诺：联盟条约保证税收不增加，这也是左派全都支持的。

Growth-friendly spending, such as on infrastructure and research, will increase.对增长有利的政府花销，如基础设施建设和研究，会增长。

But Deutsche Bank estimates that social spending will rise by three times as much.但是荷兰银行估计社会花费会增长三倍之多。

Businesses are far less happy about changes that will affect the labour market.商业会更不乐于见到会影响劳动力市场的变化。

Germany's best-performing, export-oriented companies will be little affected by the minimum wage, as they employ few low-skilled workers.德国业绩做的最好的，出口导向的公司几乎不会被最低工资影响，由于他们雇佣很少的技术不高的工人。

But the ability to employ workers on short-term contracts will be curtailed.但是他们用短期合同雇佣工人的能力被剥夺了。

Some firms have been criticised for abusing such methods as a way of keeping workers from benefits that full-time employees would receive.一些公司曾经批评滥用这些方法作为一种剥夺工人们享有全职雇员能够享受到利益的方式。

But now a tool that has made the labour market more flexible, and helped to bring unemployment down, will be made harder to use.但是现在一个工具，可以使劳动力市场更加的灵活并且帮助降低失业率，会更难使用。

Energy policy is a particularly sore point.能源政策更是一个痛处。

Germany's renewable-energy law has boosted green sources through guaranteed high prices for renewable power, preferred access for renewables to the grid and easier financing, from a tax on electricity bills.德国的可再生能源法通过保证可再生能源的高价、对可再生能源管道网络更优先的许可和更容易的来自电力税的融资来促进绿色来源。

German industrial electricity prices are among the highest in Europe.德国工业用电价格属于欧洲最高行列。

Power-hungry industries get partial relief from the tax that finances renewable subsidies;but they complain nonetheless, of a lack of long-term clarity in energy policy.能源密集型工业通过提供可再生能源补贴税减轻部分负担；虽然如此但是他们仍然抱怨能源政策缺乏长期确定性。

Firms are voting with their euros.公司们用他们的欧元投票。

The value of fixed capital in energy-intensive industries has declined over the past decade.在能源密集产业的固定资本价值在过去十年下降了。

As companies' kit is wearing out, they are simply not replacing it, or investing abroad.由于公司的设备磨损了，他们仅仅是不更换它，或者投资国外。

The coalition treaty speaks of an energy policy triangle of sustainability, supply security and affordability, but fills in little detail about how the government can achieve all three competing goals.这个联盟条约提起一个集持续性、安全保证和可支付的能源政策三角，但是没有透露任何关于政府如何实现所有三个具有竞争力目标的细节。

The government has set a deadline of April 2014 to publish a fundamental reform of the renewable-energy law, which it hopes to pass by summer.政府设定了2014年4月一个最后期限去公布可再生能源法基础性改革，Udo Niehage, the head of government relations at Siemens, a big engineering firm, is not panicking yet.大型工程公司西门子政府关系部门领导Udo Niehage一点都不惊慌失措。

He is certain that the coalition understands the worries of German businesses, and praises Ms Merkel's toughness and cleverness.他很肯定联盟很明白德国商业的担忧，并且赞赏默克尔的坚韧和聪明。

She is certainly good at wrong-footing political opponents, and so it is possible that the coalition deal is an unreliable guide to what the new government will actually do.她肯定很擅长使政治对手手忙脚乱，所以可能联盟处理方式是一个对新政府实际上会做什么不可靠的指引。

But the lack of certainty about future plans is the loudest complaint about the chancellor coming from businesses.但是未来计划缺乏确定性是来自商业关于总理最大的抱怨。

Trusting in her cleverness is not enough.相信她的聪明是不够的。

【经济学人】双语阅读：德国武器公司不和武器说再见

Business 商业报道

German weapons firms 德国武器公司

No farewell to arms 不和武器说再见

Political pressure and bribery allegations are unlikely to hurt Germany's exporters of military equipment.看起来政治压力和受贿指控都不会影响德国的军事装备出口公司。

SINCE the second world war, Germany has rarely sent soldiers to combat zones.自二战以来，德国几乎不曾向战争地区派兵。

But it exports a lot of weapons: more than Britain, France or any other country besides America and Russia.然而它却出口了大量武器：超过英国、法国以及除美国、俄罗斯之外的所有其他国家。

Some German makers of military gear are part of civilian industrial giants, such as Airbus Group, and ThyssenKrupp, a steelmaker.德国的武器制造商中有些隶属于私有的工业巨头，比如空客集团，还有钢铁制造商蒂森克虏伯集团。

But the biggest German company known mainly for weapons, Rheinmetall, is just 26th in the world league of arms-exporting firms.然而，即使是德国著名的以武器业务为主的公司中最大的莱茵金属公司，在世界武器出口公司中也仅仅排在26位。

And Krauss Maffei Wegmann, which makes the Leopard 2 tank, is 54th.而制造出豹2坦克的Krauss Maffei Wegmann则位居54位。

Germans are, in general, proud of their export prowess.总的来说，德国对自己的出口实力感到骄傲。

But although foreign sales of weaponry bring in almost 1 billion a year, they are a delicate subject, and lately beset by bad press.但是尽管武器外贸带来了将近10亿欧元一年的利润，这是一项非常微妙的行业，并且近日承受的巨大压力。

Several German firms are accused of bribery in Greece.数家德国公司被指控在希腊行贿。

A former defence official there has said that of 8m in bribes he took, 3.2m came from German firms, including Wegmann and Rheinmetall.希腊一位前国防部官员曾说，在他被行贿的800万欧元中有320万来自于德国公司，其中包括Wegman和莱茵金属公司。

On January 3rd KMW's alleged middleman was detained after a court hearing.在1月3日，一位宣称的KMW中间人在庭审后被拘留。

The firm itself denies any bribery.该公司自己否认有行贿行为。

Atlas, a maker of naval weapons owned jointly by Airbus and ThyssenKrupp, is under fire too.空客集团和蒂森克虏伯共有的海军武器制造商Atlas也正受到打击。

A former representative in Athens has reportedly admitted to bribery;the company says it is investigating the matter.一位前雅典代表在报道中承认行贿；该公司则表示其正在进行调查。

On another front, the industry faces criticism over the countries it sells to—most recently over a deal to sell Leopard 2s to Saudi Arabia.另一方面，该产业因其售卖武器的对象而受到批评—最近是因为向沙特阿拉伯卖出豹2。

Arms sales to anywhere other than NATO and NATO-equivalent countries are in principle forbidden.向北约以及北约等同国家以外的国家和地区销售武器从原则上说是禁止的。

But the Federal Security Council, headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel, can approve exceptions when foreign policy dictates, as long as they do not harm human rights.但是由总理安吉拉默克尔领导的联邦安全局可以在外交政策需要时批准一些特殊情况，只要他们对于人权没有损害。

Peace campaigners fear that the exceptions are becoming less exceptional.和平活动者们担心这些些特殊情况正变得越来越不特殊。

NATO countries' budgets are being squeezed, so Germany's armsmakers are looking farther abroad.北约国家正紧缩财政，因而德国武器制造商们只能将目光转向了远方的国家。

Rheinmetall, for example, has a target of 50% of exports outside Europe by 2015.比如，莱茵金属基团计划在2015年前将欧洲以外地区的出口比重提高到50%。

Asia is a growing target: Singapore recently signed a 1.6 billion deal for ThyssenKrupp submarines.亚洲是一个快速成长的目标：新加坡最近签署了一份价值16亿欧元的合同用于购买蒂森克虏伯潜艇。

German small arms are also popular.Heckler & Koch's G3 rifle is the world's most popular after the Russian AK-47.德国的小型武器同样很受欢迎。赫克勒-科赫G3步枪的受欢迎程度仅次于俄国的AK47。

Germany was a leader in pushing the UN to restrict the flow of small arms to war-torn countries.德国是推动联合国限制对战争频繁地区的小型武器出售的领导者之一。

But such weapons leak across borders nonetheless.尽管如此，此类武器依然会进入这些地区。

This is why Helmut Schmidt, a former chancellor, in December urged Germany to restrict arms exports, calling gun deaths a slow-motion Hiroshima and Nagasaki.这也是为何前总理赫尔穆特施密特在12月督促德国限制武器出口，他称枪支引发死亡如同慢性的广岛和长

崎原子弹爆炸。

His fellow Social Democrat, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, promised to restrict sales if his party made it into government after last September's elections.他的社会民主党同僚，弗兰克沃尔特施泰因迈尔曾承诺如果去年9月选举后其党派成功执政，就会限制武器出口。

It did: Mr Steinmeier is now foreign minister, and sits on the Federal Security Council.这一条件已经实现：施泰因迈尔现在是外交部长，并任职于联邦安全委员会。

But Germany's arms exports are probably in little danger, since they have the same reputation for reliability as its cars and other industrial goods.但是德国的武器出口看似并无危险，因为它的武器产品在可靠性方面有着和汽车及其他工业产品一样的好名声。

Even Pieter Wezeman of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a critic of weapons sales, compares a Heckler & Koch gun to a high-quality Leica camera.甚至斯特哥尔摩和平研究所的Pieter Wezeman，一位武器销售的批评者，也将赫克勒-科赫枪支比作质量优异的徕卡相机。

Though German soldiers mostly stay clear of combat zones, German weapons are battle-tested;Leopard tanks in the former Yugoslavia and Afghanistan, for example.虽然德国士兵不曾踏足战争区域，德国的武器可是经过实战检验的；豹型坦克就曾现身前南斯拉夫和阿富汗。

Moreover, there are ways to lessen the controversy of selling things used to wage war.此外，还有许多方法来减少战争武器销售的争议性。

For example, making guns for a fighter jet assembled elsewhere is less visible than selling a German-made tank.比如，为在其他地区组装的战斗机制造枪支同直接卖出德国制造的坦克相比要不显眼许多。

Military transport, logistics, surveillance and protective equipment together account for five times as much of German defence firms' output as weapons and ammunition—and are less likely to be blamed for civilian casualties.军事运输设备、后勤物资、监视和防护设备总计是德国国防公司武器和军火出口额的5倍，而且这些生意不会受到引发平民死亡的谴责。

Stephan Boehm, an analyst at Commerzbank, sees such non-lethal materiel as a bright spot for German exporters.德国商业银行的分析师Stephan Boehm将这些非致密材料看做是德国出口的闪光点。

The flagging fortunes of Rheinmetall, in particular, should be restored by strong sales of the armoured transporters it produces in a joint venture with MAN, a lorry-maker.需要指出的是，莱茵金属公司的巨大财富中不少就源自于它和货车制造商MAN联合制造的装甲运输车辆的良好销量业绩。

Critics say the government is too willing to let arms firms export to dodgy regimes.不少批评认为政府太想要将武器公司出口到过于冒险的区域。

The Federation of German Security & Defence Industries argues that strong exports are crucial to spread the development costs of the equipment Germany needs to defend itself.德国安全和国防工业联合会争辩说繁荣的武器出口对于分担德国发展国防设备的花费至关重要。

This would be less of a problem, the lobby group admits, if Europe's fragmented defence industry were consolidated;it says the government should not have vetoed a proposal last year to merge EADS with BAE Systems of Britain.游说者们也承认，如果欧洲散乱的国防工业能得到统一的话，这个问题就会小很多；他们还提到，政府不应在去年否决EADS和英国的BAE System合并的提议。

Weapons account for less than 1% of Germany's exports.武器出口在德国总出口中所占比重不足1%。

But it is a 1% that it, like other countries, is loth to give up.但是如同其他国家一样，德国无法割舍这1%。

【经济学人】双语阅读：电动汽车充电进入美国

Business 商业报道

Electric cars 电动汽车

Charging into America 充电进入美国

Chinese firms are keen on America's battery-vehicle market 中国公司致力于美国电动车公司市场

TESLA, an American electric-car manufacturer, is the darling of investors and the most visible success in a business more notable for its failures.美国电动车制造商TESLA是投资者们的宠儿，相比较该行业的失败之处，它也是最显著的成功。

The praise it has attracted is encouraging Chinese firms to try to enter the American market.它所赢得的赞赏激励中国公司试图进入美国市场。

A Hong Kong company and a mainland firm are battling for control of Fisker, a failed maker of

hybrid-electric cars based in California;a court hearing due on January 10th will consider creditors' calls for an open auction.一家香港公司和大陆公司正在为Fisker的管理控制权而争夺不休。Fisker是加利福尼亚一家倒闭的混合动力汽车制造商。1月10日的庭审将考虑债权人所要求的公开拍卖。

And BYD, another Chinese mainland firm, said this week it would start selling its own electric cars in America next year.另一家中国公司BYD本周表示明年起将在美国出售自己的电动车。

In 2009, when America's Department of Energy agreed to give Fisker a big green energy loan to start production of its sleek Karma sports car, it looked like posing a serious threat to Tesla.2009年，美国能源部门同意给予Fisker一笔巨大的绿色能源贷款生产其Karma跑车，这对于Tesla似乎是一种严重的威胁。

But Fisker was brought down by quality problems, poor management and the financial difficulties of A123, its battery supplier.但是Fisker却因为质量问题、糟糕的管理、A123的财政问题及其电池供应商的问题倒闭了。

Production of the Karma ceased in late 2012 and, last November, Fisker followed A123 into bankruptcy.Karma跑车在2012年底停产了，去年11月，Fisker继A123之后破产。

Hybrid Tech Holdings, controlled by Richard Li—a son of Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong's richest tycoon—bought the DOE's loan to Fisker at a big discount and is now seeking to use its influence as a creditor to win control of the collapsed firm.香港首富李嘉诚的儿子李泽恺的混合动力科技股份有限公司以极其优惠的价格支付了美国能源部门给Fisker的贷款，现在他正利用自己债权人的身份影响寻觅机会赢得该倒闭公司的控制权。

Fisker's managers support Mr Li's bid.Fisker的经理支持李泽恺的投标。

But many of the company's unsecured creditors prefer the rival takeover proposal, from Wanxiang, a giant Chinese maker of car parts which aspires to go big into electric cars.但是许多该公司的无担保债权人更偏向于其竞争对手，另一家打算强势打入电动车市场的汽车部件制造大亨万向集团来接管。

It has already bought A123 and plans to revive production of the Karma, assembling it in America rather than, as before, in Finland.该公司已经收购了A123并打算重新生产Karma跑车，这次打算在美国装配，而不是之前的芬兰。

For all the excitement about Tesla, battery cars have in general been selling like pork pies at a vegetarians' convention.所有关于Tesla的兴奋，电动车普遍被看作素食者公约买卖的猪肉派。

Yet this is deterring neither Fisker's rival bidders nor BYD, which has Warren Buffett as a shareholder.然而这既没有阻断Fisker的竞争投标人也没有让Warren Buffett的股东BYD止步。

BYD has already persuaded Los Angeles to accept a handful of its expensive electric buses, but getting motorists to buy pricey battery cars from a firm they have not heard of will be quite a challenge.BYD已经说服洛杉矶购买其少量的昂贵电动公交车。但是要让司机们购买他们从未耳闻的昂贵的电动车似乎很困难。

Neither BYD nor any other Chinese firm has yet produced an electric car of anything like the quality of Tesla's Model S, which motoring pundits have showered with plaudits.无论是BYD还是中国任何一家其他公司能制造出与Tesla S 型电动车质量相仿的电动车，该电动车赢得许多汽车专家的喝彩。

Even in China, where big subsidies and other inducements are on offer, buyers have spurned their clunkers.即使在中国这样有着大型津贴和其他诱因供应的地方，买家也会摒弃其废旧的汽车。

【经济学人】双语阅读：发射飞机，让电磁感应来验证

Science and technology 科学技术

Launching aircraft 发射飞机

Proof by induction 让电磁感应来验证

In the future, airliners could be catapulted into the sky by electric motors 将来，会用电动机将客机弹射到天空中

READERS of a certain age may remember Fireball XL5, a children's television programme devised by Gerry Anderson about a spacecraft of that name.某个年龄段的读者可能还记得《雷霆机》这个儿童电视节目，这个节目是由格里安德森制作的，讲的是一艘叫做雷霆机的宇宙飞船的故事。

Instead of taking off vertically, as real spacecraft do, Fireball XL5 sat on a rocket-propelled trolley that accelerated it horizontally to launch speed.与现实中的宇宙飞船垂直起飞不同，雷霆机是架在一个由火箭推动的滑车上，水平加速到发射速度。

And that, in effect, is what engineers at Airbus, Europe's largest civil-aviation company, are

proposing in their latest bout of blue-sky thinking.实际上，这是空中客车公司的工程师们在其最近一次天马行空的想法中提出的建议。

Apart from the fact that the trolley would be powered by linear-induction motors rather than rockets, they are suggesting that the fantasy of 1962 might become the reality of 2050.滑车由线性感应电动机提供动力，而非火箭，除此之外，他们认为1962年的幻想会在2050年成为现实。

Mindful that many passengers are already nervous about the whole process of getting a plane airborne, the engineers prefer to call their proposal Eco-climb.考虑到飞机离开地面的整个过程中已经够让许多乘客紧张了，工程师更喜欢将他们的提议称为环保型起飞。

But the idea is straight out of Fireball.但这一想法是直接来自于雷霆机的。

The aircraft to be launched would sit on a platform that ran along a track where the runway would otherwise be.待发射的飞机会架在一个沿轨道滑行的平台上，而这轨道可说是跑道的另一种形式。

The platform would accelerate to take-off speed, at which point the plane would lift into the air powered by its own engines.平台会加速到起飞速度，到达这一速度点后，飞机便可以通过自己的引擎升上天空。

Taking off in this way would both save fuel and make life more pleasant for those who live near airports.以这种方式起飞既可以节约燃料，又能够让住在机场附近的人过的更舒心些。

Aircraft engines are optimised for level flight at cruising speed in the stratosphere.飞机引擎最适合在平流层以巡航速度水平飞行。

Using them to accelerate a plane on the ground wastes a lot of fuel.在地面上用它们为飞机加速会浪费很多燃料。

An induction-motor-powered platform, by contrast, would be optimised for the job at hand.相比之下，由感应电动机提供动力的平台最适合手头的这个工作，It could launch the plane at higher speed, letting it climb faster.它能以更快的速度发射飞机，让飞机爬升更快，That would save fuel, too.还能节约燃料，It would also mean fewer people on the ground suffered aircraft noise.还意味着地面上要经受飞机噪音的人更少了。

And it could do all this from a track that was a third shorter than a conventional runway.所有这些在一条比传统跑道短三分之一的轨道上即可完成。

Altogether, according to Airbus's back-of-the-envelope calculations, Eco-climb would reduce fuel consumption by 3% on a typical 900km flight, even with existing aircraft designs.总而言之，很据空中客车的粗略计算，按一次典型的900公里的飞行算，即使按照现在的飞机设计，环保型起飞也能将其油耗减少3%。

But it would also allow for the design of lighter aircraft, with smaller engines, which would cut fuel consumption, noise and emissions further.而且它还为设计引擎更小，重量更轻的飞机留下了空间，可以进一步降低油耗，噪声及排放。

Nor is the idea complete fantasy.General Atomics, an American military contractor, has already built and tested a linear-induction-motor-based system of this sort at an airbase at Lakehurst, New Jersey.这个想法并不完全是幻想。通用原子公司是一家美军的承包商，其已经在一座位于新泽西州莱克赫斯特的空军基地建造了一个这类基于线性感应电动机的系统，并进行了测试。

The General Atomics system is now being scaled up to be fitted on a new generation of aircraft carriers for the American navy.目前通用原子正在对该系统进行放大，以便能装备到美国海军的新一代航空母舰上。

A launcher powered by a linear-induction motor has several advantages over the steam-driven catapults used on existing aircraft carriers, according to General Atomics.据通用原子公司称，与现在航空母舰上使用的蒸汽动力弹射器相比，由线性感应电动机提供动力的发射台有多个优点。

Whereas a steam catapult lets rip with a constant force, the speed and power of a linear motor can be controlled to provide smooth acceleration.恒定的力使蒸汽弹射器难以控制;而线性电动机的速度和力量都可以控制，可带来平缓的加速，That extends the life of an aircraft by subjecting it to less stress.因为承受的压力更小，所以能够延长飞机的寿命，It also makes for a more comfortable take off.并且能让起飞时更舒服一些。

And the launch shuttle can brake quickly once the plane has lifted off by reversing the current running through the motor.飞机一旦起飞，通过反转电动机中的电流，发射装置能够快速制动，然后返回原位准备下一次发射。

What works in a military context might not, of course, be appropriate for civil aviation—one reason why nobody has considered equipping airports with steam catapults.当然，在军事中使用的技术不一定适合民用航空，这也是为什么没人会考虑在机场配备蒸汽弹射器的一个原因。

But the smooth operation of a linear motor means the take-off force could be kept within the 2.5g typically felt in a modern airliner dashing along a runway.但是线性电动机的平缓运行意味着起飞的力会在2.5倍重力加速度之内，与一架现代的客机沿着跑道加速时的感觉一样。

Passengers need not be subjected to Top Gun levels of acceleration.乘客们不需要去承受《壮志凌云》那种级别的加速度。

It might be possible to use linear motors for landings, too.将线性电动机用于着陆也是有可能的。

Carrier-style arrester wires would cause too much damage and would hardly be comfortable for passengers.航母式的拦截索会是飞机产生很多损伤，而且乘客也不会舒服。

But if an incoming aircraft landed on a moving platform equipped with a linear motor, the current in the motor could then be reversed to slow it down.但如果一架准备降落的飞机在一个装有线性电动机的移动平台上着陆，电动机中的电流会反转，使飞机减速。

That might mean planes could do without landing gear, saving still more weight.Even Mr Anderson didn't think of that one.这或许意味着飞机没有起落架也行，能让飞机再轻一些。

Fireball XL5 landed vertically, on retro-rockets.安德森先生都没有想到这种方法，雷霆机是靠制动火箭垂直着陆的。

【经济学人】双语阅读：海豹如何享用它的午餐

Science and technology 科学技术

How leopard seals lunch 海豹如何享用它的午餐

Suck, swish, gulp 吸，吮，咽

Eating big and little 大小通吃

JUST about every place on the planet has a predator at the top of the food web.地球上每个地方都有一个处于食物网顶端的捕食者。

The African savannahs have the lion, the jungles of Asia the tiger and the arctic tundra the polar bear.比如非洲大草原上的狮子，亚洲丛林里的老虎以及北极冻原上的北极熊。

In the Antarctic it is the leopard seals who dominate as voracious hunters of penguins and other seal species.而南极的霸主则是那些贪婪地捕食着企鹅和其他海豹种群的豹海豹。

But a new study examining their feeding habits led by David Hocking of Monash University in Australia, has revealed something unusual:

但是一个验证豹海豹进食习惯的新研究显示了一些不寻常的东西：

how leopard seals use an efficient filter-feeding system to eat near the bottom of the food chain too.那就是豹海豹如何利用一个高效的食物过滤系统同时享用靠近食物链底端的生物。来自澳大利亚蒙纳什大学的大卫霍金是此项研究的负责人。

Researchers have long known that a sizeable portion of the seals’ diet is made up of krill.研究者们很早就知道在豹海豹的食谱中一大部分是由磷虾组成。

But exactly how they consume these tiny crustaceans has been a mystery as the seals’ mouths have large sharp teeth that seemed utterly inappropriate for capturing them.但是由于豹海豹嘴里的尖牙似乎完全不适合捕捉这些磷虾，从而它们是如何享用这些微小的甲壳类生物便成了一个迷。

Some researchers have theorised that the seals might suck water into their mouths and swish it past their closed teeth to capture krill.一些研究者们从理论角度分析豹海豹也许可以通过先入吸海水再闭紧牙齿将海水吐出的筛选法捕捉磷虾。

But such behaviour depends upon leopard seals being able to suck up food from water, a specialised feeding behaviour that is rarely seen in top predators.但是完成这些动作需要豹海豹具备从海水中吸吮食物的能力，而这种特定的进食行为在位于食物链顶端的捕食者身上并不常见。

Keen to explore this, Mr Hocking turned his attention towards Casey and Sabine, two leopard seals at the Taronga Zoo in Sydney.热衷于探索这一问题的霍金先生将注意力转向了凯西和萨宾这两只悉尼塔龙加动物园的豹海豹身上。

He and his colleagues designed a clear plastic box with thin tubes in which fish could be placed.他和同事们设计了一种透明的塑料盒子，里面安装了可以盛放鱼的浅的管道。

The seals could not get at them with their teeth, and instead sucked the fish right out of the tubes.豹海豹无法用它的牙齿来取食这些鱼，而是从管道中把它们吸出来。

Moments later, the team saw clouds of murky water and bubbles being expelled from the sides of the seals’ mouths.过了一会，研究小组发现一团一团的浑浊的水体和泡沫从豹海豹的嘴里喷出。

This, they realised, was a filter-feeding system in action.研究者们意识到，这表示一套进食过滤系统正在工作。

In examining the wear on the teeth of skulls from wild leopard seals, Mr Hocking was able to work out which teeth the seals were using to filter out tiny prey.在检查野生豹海豹颅骨上牙齿的磨损度时，霍金先生弄明白了豹海豹是用哪些牙齿来过滤出微小猎物的。

He found extensive abrasions on canines and incisors, the sharp teeth at the front of their mouths.他发现位于口腔前端的那些锋利的犬齿和门齿上存在大面积磨损的情况。

This, Mr Hocking points out in Polar Biology, indicates that these teeth are used to chomp penguins and other seals.霍金先生在《极地生物》杂志上指出，这表明豹海豹利用这些牙齿来撕咬企鹅和其他海豹。

But since there is no such wear on the sharp and delicate postcanines, he believes that although these triangular rear teeth look fierce, when closed they form a sieve that is the perfect size for filtering.但是，由于在锋利而精致的犬齿后齿上并没有发现磨损的情况，他认为尽管这些三角形的后槽牙看上去非常凶狠，但是当咬合时，它们可以充当一个对于过滤事物来说其尺寸可谓完美的筛子。

Ideal dentistry, if you like, for a mixed diet.如果你乐意，这是一套进行混合膳食的理想的牙科学。

【经济学人】双语阅读：集资科技积跬步致千里

Science and technology 科学技术

Crowdfunding science 集资科技

Many a mickle makes a muckle 积跬步致千里

These days, anyone can be a scientific philanthropist 眼下人人都是科技慈善家

NECESSITY, so the proverb has it, is the mother of invention.有句谚语说得好：没有需求，就没有发明。And science is nothing if not inventive.科技失去了创新，就变得一文不值了。

So, as conventional sources of money get harder to tap, some of science's more creative minds are turning elsewhere.所以，当无法轻易获得传统的经济支持时，一些有创造力的科研人员便开始寻求新的资金来源。

Philanthropic sponsorship of science, particularly in the form of expensive pieces of kit such as large telescopes, or sponsorship for expeditions to far-off places, has been around for centuries.科技慈善资助已有几个世纪的历史，资助形式多为捐赠大型光学望远镜之类的昂贵仪器，或者是为偏远地区的探险提供赞助。

But the internet now permits what might be thought of as microphilanthropy.不过在网络的帮助下，如今微慈善也成为可能。

Through a technique called crowdfunding, in which members of the public donate small sums to projects they like the look of, the possibility of scientific philanthropy has been extended to those of more slender means.基于一种名为众基金的技术，公众可以给他们看重的项目捐赠小额资金，科技慈善事业已扩大到微薄资金来源。

On October 4th, for example, Ethan Perlstein, a pharmacologist at Princeton University, launched a bid on a site called RocketHub to collect 25,000 to study the effect of drugs such as methamphetamine on the brain.例如，普林斯顿大学的药理学家伊桑?浦斯汀，10月4日就在一家名为火箭中心的网站公开招标，募集25000美元的资金用于研究甲基苯丙胺等药物对大脑疾病的疗效，He has until November 18th to raise the money.招标将截止于11月8日。

Kristina Killgrove, an anthropologist at the University of West Florida, has already raised over 12,000 on RocketHub to examine the DNA of Roman skeletons.克里斯蒂娜科尔戈薇是西佛罗里达大学的一名人类学家，她就通过火箭中心网站募集了12000美元用于自己对罗马骸骨的DNA检验。

And on another crowdfunding site, Petridish, the California Academy of Sciences offered to name any new species of ant discovered during a conservation project in Madagascar after those who donate more than 5,000 to the enterprise.培养皿网是另一个融资网站，加州科学院就因为通过该网站获得了5000多美元的项目基金，他们完成了为马达加斯加保护项目中发现的蚂蚁新物种命名的工作。

Although the crowdfunding of science is not raising the sorts of sums sometimes attracted by those with ideas for things like video games, it has already spawned a couple of specialised platforms of its own.尽管科技融资不再是只有类似电子游戏的项目才能拿得到资金，但融资过程还是形成了自己的专业平台。Petridish is one.培养皿网就是一例。

Another is called Microryza.Microyza也是一个代表网站。

And academic institutions are starting to follow the lead taken by the CAS.学术机构都开始模仿加州科学院，募集资金。

The University of California, San Francisco, has made a deal with a site called Indiegogo that will allow the university's charitable status to make money donated via Indiegogo tax deductible.加利福尼亚大学旧金山分校与Indiegogo网站达成协议，提高了他们的会员慈善等级，可以使经网站募集的资金免税。

It will launch the first such project later this month.这个月晚些时候将启动他们的第一个项目。

Donors can expect no revenue if a crowdfunded science project is successful, of course.捐赠人肯定没想着融资的科学项目成功后他们会获得任何收入。But they can expect to be kept up to date with progress.但他们可以获悉实验的进度。

Dr Perlstein has promised to upload all data from his experiments onto a website, for his sponsors to look at.浦斯汀博士就承诺会把实验中的所有数据上传到网站，供捐赠人查阅。

And even those who are not immortalised in the myrmicine literature, as the CAS proposed, may still get a warm glow from the feeling that they are making a contribution to the advancement of knowledge in a way which was previously open only to philanthropists with rather fatter wallets.在加州科学院的项目里，即使这些捐赠人不会因切叶蚁属文献而流芳千古，但能让他们看到自己为知识进步做出了贡献感到欣慰，因为之前，这种方式只属于那些钱包更鼓的捐赠人。

【经济学人】双语阅读：节肢动物学，情人为食

Science and technology 科学技术 Arachnology 节肢动物学

Having a mate for dinner 情人为食

Male spiders make the supreme sacrifice for their children 雄蛛对后代的无私奉献

AMONG spiders, the female of the species really is more deadly than the male.蜘蛛家族中,雌蛛致命性比雄蛛高得多。交配后将配偶狼吞虎咽地吃掉，雌蛛因此声名在外。Lady arachnids have a well-deserved reputation for polishing off their suitors, post copula, in a manner that Hannibal Lecter might have admired.它们的这一行为或许在一定程度上赢得了汉尼拔莱克特的敬仰，But it has never been clear why this happens.然而其原因一直不为人所知。

Some biologists believe it is simply a mixture of female hunger and the availability of a meal that is in no position to run away.一些生物学家认为这仅仅是因为雌蛛饿了，而盘中餐又无力逃脱。

Others suspect that the male is actually sacrificing his life for the good of his genes.一些生物学家认为雄蛛是为他的基因而牺牲的。

In other words, his becoming a meal for his paramour somehow helps the offspring of their union.换句话说，他成为情人的腹中食某种程度上有助于他们共同的后代。

Peng Yu, of Hubei University in China, and his colleagues, decided to try to settle the question.中国湖北大学的彭宇及其同事决定尝试解开这一谜题。

The results of their investigation are published this week in Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology.他们的条查结果刊登在《行为生态学与社会生物学》。

Dr Peng and his team collected almost 400 young wolf spiders, of both sexes, from local fields.彭博士和他的小组在当地收集了几乎400只狼蛛，They then raised the animals separately until they were sexually mature.再雌雄分开饲养，直到它们性成熟。

Then, one at a time, they introduced the females to a male and watched until one of three things happened:

然后他们每次一只，将雌蛛与雄蛛配对，直到出现以下三者之一的情况发生：

the male got eaten;the male mated with the female and successfully avoided being eaten;or the male survived for half an hour, but did not mate with the female within that time.雄蛛被吃；雄蛛与雌蛛交配后幸免于难；或者雄蛛存活了半小时，而期间未与雌蛛交配。有时，他们将未交配的雌雄蛛配对；

Sometimes the researchers paired virgin males with virgin females;sometimes they paired virgin males with females that had recently bred.有时他们将未交配的雄蛛与刚繁殖过的雌蛛配对。

And in one crucial set of tests they paired virgin males with virgin females that had been taken off their regular diet of fruit flies a fortnight beforehand, and were thus presumed to be feeling more than a little peckish.在一项关键性实验中，他们将未交配的雄蛛与停饲果蝇两周的雌蛛配对—此时假设雌蛛处于极度饥饿状态。

After doing all this, the team chose 16 females that had mated and then eaten their partners, and ten that had mated but not done so, and followed their reproductive success.配对后，实验小组挑选了16只交配后吃掉配偶的雌蛛，10只交配后未吃掉配偶的雌蛛，观察其繁殖成功的过程。

When these females laid their egg sacs, the researchers picked ten sacs at random from each group and monitored those until the eggs hatched.当这些雌蛛产下卵袋时，研究者从每组随机挑选了10个卵袋观察，直到卵孵化。At that point they selected 20 spiderlings from each group for further study.这时，他们从每组挑选10只幼蛛用于后续研究。

Their first pertinent observation was that, while female wolf spiders did indeed sometimes eat males before breeding with them, that happened only 10% of the time, and did not seem to be more frequent if the female had been starved.他们第一个客观观察结果是，雌狼蛛有时确实会在交配前吃掉雄狼蛛，这种概率是10%，并且似乎不比雌蛛挨饿后比率高。

Their second observation was that if a male was deemed suitable to mate with, he was never eaten in copula—even though copulation could last as long as an hour and a half.第二个观察结果是，如果雄蛛被认为适合交配，它们绝不会在交配中被吃—即使交配过程可能长达一个半小时。

Their third was that, 28% of the time, a male that had mated was indeed eaten afterwards.他们第三个观察结果是，有28%的几率雄蛛会在交配后被吃。

Successful suitors, then, succumbed more often than unsuccessful ones.如此可得出，交配成功的雄蛛被吃的比未成功的多。

The crucial finding, however—which makes sense of all the others—was the success of the spiderlings.然而，幼蛛成活率是关键的发现—这使得其他发现都有了意义。

Young born of females that had eaten their partners had a 48% chance of making it through their first month of life.吃掉配偶的雌蛛其后代48%可以活过一个月，Those born of females who had let their partners live, had only a 12% chance of surviving that long.而放生配偶的雌蛛的后代存活相同时间的只有12%。

That is a staggering difference—and certainly, in evolutionary terms, enough to drive self-sacrificial behaviour by males，这个差距是巨大的—当然，按照进化论原则，足以使雄蛛采取自我牺牲行为。

since a male would have to mate successfully another three times to match the benefit he gains by this one suicidal act.因此，为获得这一次自杀行为带来的好处，它之前必须成功交配三次。

The reason a male is almost three times as likely to be eaten if he has mated with the female in question than if he has not is thus probably that he wants to be eaten, for the good of his posterity.讨论中，如果与雌蛛交配成功，雄蛛被吃的概率几乎是未交配成功的雄蛛的三倍，其原因可能是为后代着想，它希望被吃。

Just what it is that a male meal gives, via the female's digestive system, to the hatchling spiders, remains to be determined.通过雌蛛的消化系统，雄蛛给予孵化蜘蛛的是什么？这还有待探索。

Perhaps spider bodies contain some crucial nutrients which are scarcer in other forms of prey.也许蜘蛛体内含有其他猎物所缺乏的重要的营养成分。

Whatever the details, though, the general answer to the biologists' question is now clear.不管具体如何，生物学家们的问题有了大致的答案。

In the case of spiders, fathers really do lay down their lives for their children.对蜘蛛来说，父亲们真真是为孩子放弃了他们的生命。

【经济学人】双语阅读：精神身体医学，好好反省一下吧

Science and technology 科学技术

Psychosomatic medicine 精神身体医学

Think yourself well 好好反省一下吧

You can.But it helps to think well of yourself in the first place 你可以的。只是它会首先帮你好好反省一下自己。

THE link between mind and body is terrain into which many medical researchers, fearing ridicule, dare not tread.大脑与身体之间存在着千丝万缕的联系，但是，因为怕被嘲笑，很多医学研究人员不敢涉足这块领域。

But perhaps more should do so.但是，可能应该有更多人来研究它。

For centuries, doctors have recognised the placebo effect, in which the illusion of treatment, such as pills without an active ingredient, produces real medical benefits.数个世纪以来，医生们已经认识到了安慰剂的效力，其实是一种错觉治疗达到了真正的药物效应，比如没有实际疗效的药丸等。

More recently, respectable research has demonstrated that those who frequently experience positive emotions live longer and healthier lives.最近以来，相当受重视的研究表明，那些经常以积极的态度生活的人活得更长久，而且更健康。

They have fewer heart attacks, for example, and fewer colds too.比如，他们几乎不会有心脏病，而且也很少感冒。

Why this happens, though, is only slowly becoming understood.只是这种现象现在还无法解释。

What is needed is an experiment that points out specific and measurable ways in which such emotions alter an individual's biology.我们需要的是做一个试验，指明具体的，可衡量以情绪改变人体生物机理的方式。

And a study published in Psychological Science, by Barbara Fredrickson and Bethany Kok at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, does precisely that.位于查珀尔希尔的北卡罗莱纳州大学的巴巴拉弗雷德里克松和伯斯尼考克最近进行了一项研究，发表在心理科学杂志，他们的研究正体现了这点。

Dr Fredrickson and Dr Kok concentrated their attentions on the vagus nerve.弗雷德里克松教授和考克教授集中于研究迷走神经。

This nerve starts in the brain and runs, via numerous branches, to several thoracic and abdominal organs including the heart.这种神经起始端在大脑，通过众多的分支与几大胸部和腹部器官，包括心脏相连。

Among its jobs is to send signals telling that organ to slow down during moments of calm and safety.它的一项职能就是，发出信号告诉这些器官，在人体处于平静和安全的时候减缓工作步伐。

How effectively the vagus nerve is working can be tracked by monitoring someone's heart rate as he breathes in and out.你可以通过监测一个人呼吸时的心率来有效地追踪迷走神经的工作过程。

Healthy vagal function is reflected in a subtle increase in heart rate while breathing in and a subtle decrease while breathing out.如果迷走神经工作正常的话，你可以从人体吸进空气时心率的不明显增加上看出来，同样，当人体呼出空气时心率也会有微弱的减少。

The difference yields an index of vagal tone, and the value of this index is known to be connected with health.如果迷走神经处于不健康状态时，会产生不同的迷走张力指数。

Low values are, for example, linked to inflammation and heart attacks.众所周知，这个指数值与健康密切相关。比如，指数值低的话，就可能说明有炎症，及心脏病了。

What particularly interested Dr Fredrickson and Dr Kok was recent work that showed something else about the vagal-tone index:

特别有趣的是，弗雷德里克松教授和考克教授最近研究也显示了与迷走神经张力指数有关的其它东西。

people with high tone are better than those with low at stopping bad feelings getting overblown.在避免让不良情绪扩大方面，指数高的人这方面的能力明显优于指数低的人。

They also show more positive emotions in general.这些人平时也会表现出更乐观积极的情绪。

This may provide the missing link between emotional well-being and physical health.这可能也弥补了在情感福祉与身体健康之间缺失的一环。

第四篇：《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版2009年04月

American banks 美国银行Payback time还债赎身

Apr 16th 2009 200年4月16日From The Economist print edition 摘自《经济学人》印刷版

Goldman Sachs and other banks want to pay back bail-out cash.But the banking system is not in the clear yet

高盛投资公司及其它一些银行希望偿还政府救济资金。但银行业并非已脱离困境。

USING taxpayers’ funds to prop up America’s banking system was a necessary evil.So in many ways it is welcome that some banks now want to repay the money.On April 14th, six months after getting $10 billion from the Treasury, Goldman Sachs sold $5 billion of new shares with that in mind.用纳税人的钱来支持美国的银行业本就是一件迫不得已的事。因此从许多方面来说，现在一些银行希望偿还这些钱是受欢迎的。在四月十四号，即从财政部获取一百亿救济金六个月之后，高盛投资公司抛售了价值五十亿的新股用于还债。

It is easy to see why.Some banks, including Goldman, say that back in October they had enough capital and took part in the bail-out only to show solidarity with the government’s plan.Since then they have been excoriated by Congress and now face restrictions, mainly on pay but also on hiring foreigners, that Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman’s boss, says “limit our ability to compete”.Meanwhile banks’ shares have soared on optimism about their profits.Goldman says that repayment is a “duty”.But who wants to rely on livid voters and banker-bashing politicians when private cash is available?

其中缘由显而易见。一些银行（包括高盛）称，早在十月份他们就有充足的资金而参加政府救助计划只是为了声援政府救市方案。自那以后他们就一直受到国会非难而如今还要面临诸多限制。这些限制除薪酬问题外还包括聘用外籍员工方面。正如高盛老板劳埃德.布兰克费恩说，“那将限制我们的竞争力”.同时银行的股票已出现上涨，他们对利润收益颇为乐观。高盛称还债是“义务”。想想，当有私人资金可以利用时谁还想依靠满脸愠色的选民和欺压银行的政客？

The principles for letting a bank repay bail-out cash are clear.Its capital position must remain strong: capable of at least maintaining its lending book, absorbing shocks, and commanding enough confidence to allow borrowing without state guarantees.It should repay taxpayers by selling new shares or retaining profits.For a bank to boost capital by withdrawing credit or exiting important business lines would be counterproductive.It must have healthy profits and sane risk and pay policies.European banks, such as HSBC, that have got there without state support have rightly been applauded.能让一家银行有能力偿还救济资金的条件很明显。那便是它的资本状况务必尚需雄厚：至少有能力维持放贷、缓解冲击及有足够的信心无需国家担保获得借款。银行务必通过出售新股或保住盈利来偿还纳税人的钱。而如果银行靠降低信誉或取消重要业务来募集资金的话只会适得其反。银行务必要有相当的利润及健全的风险和薪资政策。欧洲银行，如汇丰银行，就没向国家寻求支持而被连连称赞。

Does Goldman pass these tests too? Although it has just reported bumper earnings(see article), their quality was mixed, and relied too much on volatile trading.It has a slug of hard-to-value assets and its borrowing costs have yet to return to normal;it is still using the government’s debt-guarantee scheme.But its regulatory capital ratios are solid, half as strong again as those of America’s ten biggest banks overall.When the Treasury completes its stress tests to evaluate the largest banks soon, Goldman should pass with flying colors.高盛能经得起这些考验吗？虽然据最新报道高盛获得了不错收益（见全文）,但这些收益的质量参差不齐，过多依赖于不稳定交易。高盛拥有小部分难估价资产并且它的借款费用又回到了原样；高盛仍沿用政府的债务担保方案。但是它的法定资本比率高，相当于美国前十大银行总体比率的二分之一。一等财政部完成对十大银行评估的压力测试，高盛将胜利通过。

No bank is an island 没有哪家银行能独善其身

Yet the crisis has shown that banks do not exist in isolation.Some say that by letting lenders repay the state, those unable to do so would face runs on their shares and junior debt.This cannot be made the sole consideration—the banking system should not walk at the pace of its weakest members.However there is still

a danger that the American banking system as a whole is nearly insolvent.And if the stress tests are rigorous, they could show that insolvency is indeed some banks’ likely fate: losses may well eat up much of the system’s capital.这次金融危机让人们看到银行不是孤立存在的。有人说如果让银行返还政府救济金，那些没能力偿还的银行将得拿它们的股票和顺应债务去冒险。但不可孤立地看问题-——银行业不能被这个行业的弱者拖了后腿。然而，作为一个整体而言，美国银行业仍有破产的危险。如果压力测试严格的话，破产的确是某些银行的可能面临的命运：破产损失将吞掉银行业好些资金。

The slim margin for error means confidence could still evaporate, with even good banks dragged down by counterparty risk.The government says banks that fail the stress tests must raise capital within six months(from the state if necessary)and sell toxic assets.The tests must not be fudged.Providing that the six-month deadline is a firm one, forcing Goldman and others to retain their unwanted funds till then seems fair.But that is long enough.Meanwhile, the politicians should stop changing the rules about pay and bonuses.细微的误差率也可能意味着信心的消失，因为即使实力雄厚的银行都可能被交易对手风险拖垮。政府称，如果银行未能通过压力测试，将必须在6个月内筹集资金（有必要的话通过国家筹集）和出售不良资产。测试不得掺假。如果6个月期限确定的话，要求高盛及其他银行保留其空闲资金至那时看起来似乎公平。但是，六个月的时间够长了。与此同时，政界人士应停止对工资和奖金规定变来变去。

The dollar as a reserve currency 以美元作为储备货币Handle with care小心应对Mar 26th 2009

China suggests an end to the dollar era中国建议结束美元时代

IN FUTURE, changes to the international financial system are likely to be shaped by Beijing as well as Washington.That is the message of an article by Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China.Mr Zhou calls for a radical reform of the international monetary system in which the dollar would be replaced as the main reserve currency by a global currency.It is a delicate issue, however.When Tim Geithner, America’s treasury secretary, discussed the proposal in New York on March 25th, his remarks sent the dollar tumbling before he made clear that, naturally, he thought the greenback should remain the dominant reserve currency.在将来，就像美国一样，中国很可能会促进国际金融体系的变革。这是中国人民银行行长周小川发布的一篇文章所隐含的信息。周先生要求彻底改革国际货币体系，由一种全球性的货币来取代美元成为主要储备货币。当然，这是一个很棘手的问题。当美国财政部部长蒂姆.盖特纳于3月25日在纽约讨论这项提议时，他的讲话引发了美元比价的波动，他很快就澄清，认为美元仍然是占主导地位的储备货币。

Mr Zhou’s proposal is China’s way of making clear that it is worried that the Fed’s response to the crisis—printing loads of money—will hurt the dollar and hence the value of China’s huge foreign reserves, of which around two-thirds are in dollars.周先生的建议清楚地以中国方式表明担忧，美联储为应对危机而大量印制美元将损及美元的价值，进而影响到中国巨额的外汇储备的价值，这其中近三分之二为美元储备。

He suggests that the international financial system, which is based on a single currency(he does not actually cite the dollar), has two main flaws.First, the reserve-currency status of the dollar helped to create global imbalances.Surplus countries have little choice but to place most of their spare funds in the reserve currency since it is used to settle trade and has the most liquid bond market.But this allowed America’s borrowing binge and housing bubble to persist for longer than it otherwise would have.Second, the country that issues the reserve currency faces a trade-off between domestic and international stability.Massive money-printing by the Fed to support the economy makes sense from a national perspective, but it may harm the dollar’s value.周先生认为基于单一货币（他实际上并没有提及美元）的国际金融体系，有两个主要缺陷。第一，作为储备货币地位的美元促成了全球经济的不平衡性。贸易顺差国家别无选择，只有将大量备用资金投入到储备货币中，用来稳定贸易和拥有最佳流动性的债券市场。但是，这种做法相对其他方式所导致美

国更无节制的借贷和持续时间更长的房地产泡沫。第二，储备货币的发行国面临权衡国内和国际的稳定性的抉择。从国际角度来说，美国联邦政府大规模印制美元来支持经济发展无可厚非，但这种做法很可能会损害到美元的价值。

Mr Zhou suggests that the dollar’s reserve status should be transferred to the SDR(Special Drawing Rights), a synthetic currency created by the IMF, whose value is determined as a weighted average of the dollar, euro, yen and pound.The SDR was created in 1969, during the Bretton Woods fixed exchange-rate system, because of concerns that there was insufficient liquidity to support global economic activity.It was originally intended as a reserve currency, but is now mainly used in the accounts for the IMF’s transactions with member countries.SDRs are allocated to IMF members on the basis of their contribution to the fund.周先生认为，美元的储备地位应移交给由国际货币基金组织所创立的特别提款权，其价值是取决于美元、欧元、日元和英镑的加权平均值。在1969年，因为担心没有足够的流动资金来支持全球经济活动，在制定布雷顿森林固定汇率制度时设立了特别提款权。设立特别提款权初衷是用来作为储备货币的，但现在主要用于国际货币基金组织成员国间的贸易结算。特别提款权对国际货币基金组织成员的配额是以成员国对国际货币基金组织的贡献为基础的。

Mr Zhou’s plan could win support from other emerging economies with large reserves.However, it is unlikely to get off the ground in the near future.It would take years for the SDR to be widely accepted as a means of exchange and a store of value.The total amount of SDRs outstanding is equivalent to only $32 billion, or less than 2% of China’s foreign-exchange reserves, compared with $11 trillion of American Treasury bonds.周先生的计划可能赢得来自其他拥有巨额外汇储备的新兴经济体的支持。然而，中国也不可能在很短的时间就能取得很大的成效。这将需要几年的时间让特别提款权以一种交易和保值的方式被广泛接受。相比于十一万亿美元的美国国债，特别提款权未缴总额仅相当于三百二十亿美元，还不足中国的外汇储备的百分之二。

There are also big political hurdles.America would resist, because losing its reserve-currency status would raise the cost of financing its budget and current-account deficits.Even Beijing might want to rethink the idea.Mr Zhou praised John Maynard Keynes’s proposal in the 1940s for an international currency, the “Bancor”, based on commodities.But as Mark Williams of Capital Economics says, central to Keynes’s idea was that a tax be imposed on countries running large current-account surpluses, to encourage them to boost domestic demand.该项提议同时也面临巨大的政治障碍。由于失去储备货币的地位将会提高融资预算成本和导致经常帐户赤字，美国将会抵制这项提议。就连中方可能也要重新考虑这一想法。周先生称赞凯恩斯在二十世纪四十年代所提倡的基于商品定值的国际性货币“Bancor”的建议。但资本经济学家马克.威廉姆斯说，凯恩斯的建议的实质是，对那些拥有经常账户巨大盈余的国家征税，来鼓励他们扩大内需。附加解释：Bancor：上世纪四十年代凯恩斯就曾提出采用30种有代表性的商品作为定值基础建立国际货币单位“Bancor”的设想

Economic indicator经济指标Googling the future Google一下未来

Internet search data may be useful for forecasters

网络搜索数据也许可以帮助经济预测专家

CLAIMS of clairvoyance, particularly when they come from economists, deserve a sceptical reception.Hal Varian, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley who also happens to be Google’s chief economist, has no such pretensions, but he does believe that data on internet searches can help predict certain kinds of economic statistics before they become available.人们具有预见能力的这一说，尤其是经济学家的预见能力通常都会引起质疑。加州大学伯克利分校的经济学教授，谷歌公司首席经济学家Hal Varian表示，他没有如此的洞察力和预见力，但他相信在某些经济统计数据公布之前，网络搜索的数据能够帮助预测这些数据。

In a new paper written with Hyunyoung Choi, a colleague at Google, he argues that fluctuations in the

frequency with which people search for certain words or phrases online can improve the accuracy of the econometric models used to predict, for example, retail-sales figures or house sales.Actual numbers for such things are usually available only with a lag.But Google’s search data are updated every day, so they can in theory capture shifts in consumer behaviour before official numbers are released.Varian和谷歌的另一名同事Hyunyoung Choi最新发表了一篇论文，他表示对于人们在网上搜索的一些字词短语，其频率的变化可以提高经济计量模型预测零售销售或售房数据的准确性。这些确切销售数据通常是要滞后一段时间才能得到。但是谷歌搜索数据每天都在更新，因此理论上在官方数字出炉之前，们就把握住了消费者行为的变化。

These data are available through a site called Google Trends, which allows anyone who cares to do so to download an index of the aggregate volume of searches for particular terms or categories.Mr Varian and Mr Choi show that the addition of these search trends to econometric models improves the accuracy of their estimates.人们可以在一个名叫谷歌趋势的网站上得到这些数据，并且可以下载特定条款或物品被搜索总量的指数。Varian和Choi表示，共同利用这些搜索趋势和经济计量模型就能够提高预测的准确性。

For example, using data on searches for trucks and SUVs to predict the monthly sales of motor vehicles reduces the average error by up to 18% compared with the predictions from a model that did not incorporate the search data.The volume of searches for Hong Kong carried out in countries like America, Britain, Australia and India also seems to predict eventual tourist arrivals to the territory from these countries rather well.比如，与不用搜索数据的模型得出的预测相比，利用货车和SUV的搜索数据来预测汽车月销售量会减少高达18%的平均误差。在美国，英国，澳大利亚和印度等国进行的对香港的搜索似乎也能预测从这些国家到香港旅行的游客人数。

How widely could this idea be applied? For some things, like retail sales, the categories into which Google classifies its search-trend data correspond closely to what people may want to predict, such as the sales of a particular brand of car(see chart).For others, like sales of houses, things are less clear.It appears that searches for estate agents work better than those for home financing.But anything that makes the crystal ball less cloudy is welcome.这一方法的应用有多广？对于一些事物，比如零售销售，某些种类（谷歌将搜索趋势数据划分到该种类）和人们期望预测的事物非常相关，比如某一种汽车品牌的销售。对于其它的项目，如房屋销售，情况就比较模糊。但对房地产经纪人的搜索似乎比对房屋抵押贷款机构的搜索更能清楚地说明房屋销售问题。无论如何，只要能使这个水晶球更加透明清晰，任何方法都是受人欢迎的。

Japanese banksA capital affair 日本银行的资本事件Apr 8th 2009 | TOKYO

The investments of Japanese banks in other firms create a vicious circle

日本银行投资于其它公司成了一个怪圈。

IN A country where social relations are paramount, Japanese banks are so loyal to their customers that they hold shares in them.That loyalty has been tested for almost 20 years whenever the stockmarket lurches lower.But still the banks cling on to their shares, carrying around ￥10 trillion-worth($100 billion)on their books.日本是一个社交至上的国家，日本银行如此忠心于其客户，以至持有他们的股权。这份忠诚已经历了20多年来股市每每受挫时的考验。而银行依然保持参股姿态，在其收支平衡表上大约值10万亿日圆（1000万美元）。

The trouble is, the further the market falls, the more banks have to write down the asset values on their balance-sheets, which increases their losses.It also shrinks the tier-one capital that they hold as a cushion against further losses, constraining their ability to lend.麻烦的是，市场越下滑，银行资产负债表上资产的价值就越缩水，为此损失越多。一级资本亦会缩

减，一级资本被用作对付进一步亏损的缓冲，同时放贷能力受限。

The country’s three “megabanks”—Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group(MUFG), Mizuho and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group(SMFG)—are particularly vulnerable.Their shareholdings as a percentage of tier-one capital range from just below 50% to above 60%(see chart).The trio are expected to post losses this year.日本三大“超级银行”——三菱日联金融集团（Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group）、瑞穗金融集团（Mizuho Financial Group）和三井住友金融集团（Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group）——尤为岌岌可危。他们所持股权占一级资本的百分比由50%以下变动至60%以上（见表）。预计三大行今年将亏损。

But in Japan, even the titans find it hard to break with tradition, especially one that dates back to the Meiji era in the late 1800s when Japan began to industrialise.Capital was scarce and banks felt they had a role to support national industry;taking a stake in a borrower showed that their fates were united.Moreover, most banks were linked to companies within corporate families, called zaibatsu.That smoothed trade within and outside the groups.但在日本，即使是伟人也难于打破传统，尤其是在19世纪末日本开始工业化的明治时代。资本匮乏，且银行认为它们有责任支撑本国的工业；参股借贷企业表示他们一损俱损，一荣俱荣。此外，大多数银行都与家族集团联系在一起，称之为财阀。这样做使集团内外的交易顺利进行。

After the second world war, huge conglomerates were forbidden and replaced by the keiretsu, a network of individual companies working together.Cross-shareholdings remained routine.二战后，大型企业集团被禁，转而由企业联盟替代，这是一个私营公司合作网。交叉持股依然是惯例。

For most of the postwar period, the arrangement was highly lucrative.As share prices soared, balance-sheets swelled.This in turn pushed share prices higher.But after the bubble burst in 1990, it took a decade for regulators to begin forcing banks to reduce their shareholdings.In 2002 the government capped the ratio of equities to tier-one capital at 100%, which marked the beginning of the reduction(with the state itself as a buyer).Now, as then, requiring banks to dump their shareholdings altogether—however laudable—would run the risk of turning a bear market into a rout.战后的大多时间里，此举带来了高额利润。随着股价高涨，资产负债表跟着膨胀。这转而推动股价进一步走高。但在1990年股市泡沫破灭后，日本监管层耗时十年开始强制银行减少其所持股权。2002年日本政府规定了所持股本最高上限，即为一级资本数额，此举标志着缩减股权的开始（国家作为买主）。目前同那时一样，要求银行抛售他们手中的股权——虽值得赞誉——却存在着使本就颓废的市场垮掉的风险。

Although today shareholdings remain huge compared with bank capital, the ratio is a third of the 150% of a decade ago.And although Japanese banks own 5% of the value of the country’s stockmarket, this too is far below the 20% they owned in 1985.So however troubling the problems remain, the banks can at least point to improvement.虽然当前所持股权相较于银行资本而言依然是庞大的，但比率却是十年前的三分之一，当时比率为（一级资本的）150%。而且尽管日本银行占有该国股市市值的5%，但这相较于其1985年所占20%的比例真是小巫见大巫。因此虽然麻烦问题仍在，银行却至少能励精图治。

Japanese banks must deduct a percentage of certain unrealised losses from their shareholdings from their tier-one capital.According to UBS, every 10% drop in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average requires banks to raise from ￥13 billion to ￥190 billion apiece to replenish their tier-one ratios to around 7.5%.That would still be below 8%, the level considered safe in the current climate.日本银行必须要从其所持股权和一级资本中扣除一定比例的未变现亏损。据瑞银集团（UBS），日经225指数每下滑10%，银行就需要增加130亿至1900亿日圆补充其一级资本，使其比率维持在7.5%左右。该比率仍低于当前环境下8%的安全度。

Raising funds is painful.In February Mizuho said it would issue ￥80 billion in preferred securities to rebuild its capital, but pay an annual fixed coupon of almost 15%—a cost it almost certainly cannot cover from

its earnings.More recently it declined to redeem a $1.5 billion security at the first possible date, underscoring its need to preserve capital.增加资本金着实困难。瑞穗金融集团在2月份表示，该集团将发行800亿日圆的优先债券修复其资本，但所支付的固定票息超过15%，收益几乎不够支付成本。最近该集团拒绝在最初的可能到期日赎回价值150亿美元的债券，强调其需要保有资本。

In recent weeks, the government has offered to inject capital into the banks and has set aside ￥20 trillion to buy many of the wilting shares from them.That would enable the banks to strengthen their balance-sheets further, preserve capital and keep on lending.But most banks have resisted: relying on the state would suggest they are in trouble.And selling would require them to crystallise the losses rather than let hope—that one day the stockmarket may miraculously recover—spring eternal.In the season of cherry blossoms, hope is all they have.近几周来，日本政府已提出向银行业注资，并留有20万亿日圆购买银行手中持有的许多贬值股票。此举可使银行资本负债表进一步充盈、保有资本及继续放贷。但多数银行却拒绝了，认为依赖政府会表明他们陷于困境。而出售手中的股权将要求他们具体化其亏损度，而非使希望——某天股市会奇迹般反弹——永存。在这个樱花盛开的季节，他们所拥有的只有希望而已。

第五篇：2015《经济学人》科技类文章整合

07.14 Autism 自闭症

Why it's not “Rain Woman”

为什么它不是“雨女”

Women have fewer cognitive disorders than men do because their bodies are better at ignoring the mutations which cause them

与男性相比，患有认知障碍的女性较少，因为她们自身的身体能更好的忽略导致认知障碍的基因突变

AUTISM is a strange condition.Sometimes its symptoms of “social blindness”(an inability to read or comprehend the emotions of others)occur alone.This is dubbed high-functioning autism, or Asperger's syndrome.Though their fellow men and women may regard them as a bit odd, high-functioning autists are often successful(sometimes very successful)members of society.On other occasions, though, autism manifests as part of a range of cognitive problems.Then, the condition is debilitating.What is common to those on all parts of the so-called autistic spectrum is that they are more often men than women—so much more often that one school of thought suggests autism is an extreme manifestation of what it means, mentally, to be male.Boys are four times more likely to be diagnosed with autism than girls are.For high-functioning autism, the ratio is seven to one.自闭症是一种奇怪的状态。有时它是由“社会失明”症状（无法阅读或理解他人的情绪）导致的孤独。这被称为高功能自闭症，或亚斯伯格症候群。虽然他们的男性和女性同伴会认为他们有点奇怪，但高功能自闭患者通常是成功的社会人士（有时非常成功）。然而，另一些场合，自闭症表现为一系列认知问题的一部分。那么，条件逐渐衰弱。对于那些所有被称为自闭症患者范围的人来说共同点是男性远多于女性，以至于一个学校认为自闭症意味着一种极端的在心理上表现为一名男性。比起女孩而言，男孩有四倍的可能性被诊断为自闭症。至于高功能自闭症，比率达到7比1。

Moreover, what is true of autism is true, to a lesser extent, of a lot of other neurological and cognitive disorders.Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)is diagnosed around three times more often in boys than in girls.“Intellectual disability”, a catch-all term for congenital low IQ, is 30-50% more common in boys, as is epilepsy.In fact, these disorders frequently show up in combination.For instance, children diagnosed with an autistic-spectrum disorder[1] often also receive a diagnosis of ADHD.此外，自闭症的真相，在较小程度上，就是神经病学的认知障碍的真相。被诊断为注意力缺乏症的男大约是女孩的三倍。“智力残疾”，一个全面概括先天性智商低下的术语，在男孩中常见比例多达30%~50%，癫痫症也是。事实上，这些疾病经常共同出现。例如，被诊断为自闭症谱系障碍的小孩经常也收到ADHD的诊断。

Autism's precise causes are unclear, but genes are important.Though no mutation which, by itself, causes autism has yet been discovered, well over 100 are known that make someone with them more vulnerable to the condition.导致自闭症的确切原因还不知道，但是基因很重要原因。虽然还没发现是由于它自身的突变导致自闭症，但超过100个基因被认为是使某些人在环境影响下更容易受到攻击的对象。Most of these mutations are as common in women as in men, so one explanation for the divergent incidence is that male brains are more vulnerable than female ones to equivalent levels of genetic disruption.This is called the female-protective model.The other broad explanation, social-bias theory, is that the difference is illusory.Girls are being under-diagnosed because of differences either in the ways they are assessed, or in the ways they cope with the condition, rather than because they actually have it less.Some researchers claim, for example, that girls are better able to hide their symptoms.这些突变在男性和女性中是一样普遍的，所以一个对分歧发生率的解释是对于同等的基因毁坏，男性大脑比女性的更容易受伤害。这被称为女性保护模式。另一个广发的解释是社会偏见理论，认为这些不同是虚幻的。这些被诊断不足的女孩，因为她们被评估的方式或对环境的处理不同，而不是他们真的很少有这个症状。例如，一些研究者声称，女孩能更好的隐藏这些症状。The weaker sex 弱势性别

To investigate this question, Sebastien Jacquemont of the University Hospital of Lausanne and his colleagues analysed genetic data from two groups of children with cognitive abnormalities.Those in one group, 800 strong, were specifically autistic.Those in the other, 16,000 strong, had a range of problems.为了调查这个问题，洛桑医科大学的医生Sebastien Jacquemont和他的同事分析来自两组患有认识异常症状孩子的基因数据。一组有800人明显确定患有自闭症；另一组是明显有一系列问题。

Dr Jacquemont has just published his results in the American Journal of Human Genetics.His crucial finding was that girls in both groups more often had mutations of the sort associated with abnormal neural development than boys did.This was true both for copy-number variants(CNVs, which are variations in the number of copies in a chromosome of particular sections of DNA), and single-nucleotide variants(SNVs, which are alterations to single genetic letters in the DNA message).医生Jacquemont刚将他的研究成果发布在美国人类遗传学杂志上。他的关键发现是两组中，女孩比男孩更多有伴随异常神经发展种类的基因突变。这在拷贝数量变异组（CNVs，一组对DNA特定部分的染色体进行复制）和单核苷酸变异组（SNVs，修改DNA信使中单独的基因字母）两组中都是对的。

On the face of it, this seems compelling evidence for the female-protective model.Since all the children whose data Dr Jacquemont examined had been diagnosed with problems, if the girls had more serious mutations than the boys did, that suggests other aspects of their physiology were covering up the consequences.Females are thus, if this interpretation is correct, better protected from developing symptoms than males are.And, as further confirmation, Dr Jacquemont's findings tally with a study published three years ago, which found that CNVs in autistic girls spanned more genes(and were thus, presumably, more damaging), than those in autistic boys.从表面上看，这似乎是令人信服的女性保护模式证据。因为Jacquemont医生检验的所有孩子的数据都被诊断有问题，如果比起男孩，女孩有更严重的突变，那就表面他们生理机能的其他方面掩盖了结果。如果这个解释是正确的，因此女性比男性能在出现的症状中更好的保护自己。而且，作为进一步的确认，Jacquemont医生的发现与一个三年前发布的研究成果相符，研究发现CNVs在自闭症女孩中横跨多个基因（也因此假设更具破坏性），比患自闭症男孩的多。

The counter-argument is that if girls are better at hiding their symptoms, only the more extreme female cases might turn up in the diagnosed groups.If that were true, a greater degree of mutation might be expected in symptomatic girls as a consequence.However, Dr Jacquemont and his colleagues also found that damaging CNVs were more likely to be inherited from a child's mother than from his or her father.They interpret this as further evidence of female-protectedness.Autistic symptoms make people of either sex less likely to become parents.If mothers are the source of the majority of autism-inducing genes in children, it suggests they are less affected by them.相反的观点认为如果女孩能更好的隐藏他们的症状，在被诊断的小组中，只有更极端女性案例会出现。如果这是正确的，那么在女孩症候群中预期有更多程度的突变。然而，Jacquemont医生和他的同事同样也发现受损的CNVs遗传于母亲的可能性大于他或她的父亲。他们解释这进一步证明了女性保护机制。自闭症症状使任何性别的人都不大愿意成为父母。如果母亲是孩子自闭症诱导基因的主要来源，因此建议孩子们能少受到影响母体的影响。

None of this, though, explains the exact mechanism that makes boys more susceptible than girls.On this question, too, there are two predominant theories.The first is that males are more sensitive because they have only one X-chromosome.This makes them vulnerable to mutations on that chromosome, because any damaged genes have no twin to cover for them.One cognitive disorder, fragile-X syndrome, is indeed much more common in men for this reason.Dr Jacquemont's study, however, found only a limited role for X-chromosome mutations.That suggests the genetic basis of the difference is distributed across the whole genome.即使没有这个，准确机制也说明男孩比女孩更易受到影响。在这个问题上，也有两个主要的理论。第一个理论认为男性更敏感，因为他们只有一个X染色体。这使对染色体的突变更易受影响，因为任何受损基因都没有双胞胎来掩盖。认知障碍，X染色体易损综合症，确实因为这个原因在男性中很常见。然而Jacquemont医生的研究发现X染色体突变的作用有限。这表明该差异的遗传基础是分布在整个基因组的。

The other kind of explanation is anatomical.It is based on brain-imaging studies which suggest differences between the patterns of internal connection in male and female brains.Male brains have stronger local connections, and weaker long-range ones, than do female brains.That is similar to a difference seen between the brains of autistic people and of those who are not.The suggestion here is that the male-type connection pattern is somehow more vulnerable to disruption by the factors which trigger autism and other cognitive problems.Why that should be, however, remains opaque.另一种解释则是解剖学意义上的。它基于男性和女性大脑内部连接模式差异的脑成像研究。男性大脑比起女性而言，有较强的本地连接，较弱的长范围连接。这与是否患有自闭症者大脑的不同相似。这表明男性类型连接模式在某种程度上更加易受因此自闭症的其他认知障碍因素得破坏。然而为什么会这样，仍是未解之谜。

05.27 Display screens 显示屏

Going through a phase 相转变

A new way to create electronic images 新的电子图案显示方法 Wave of the future? 未来之波

LIQUID-CRYSTAL displays are a familiar and ubiquitous technology.But if Harish Bhaskaran of Oxford University is right, their days may be numbered.The essential feature of LCDs is that the pixels in them switch between amorphous and crystal-like phases, which changes their optical properties.In a paper in this week's Nature, Dr Bhaskaran and his colleagues describe something similar in a solid material.At the least, that would stop the messy abstract-impressionist patterns which happen when an LCD is dropped too hard.At most, it might open up a new range of applications, from clothes that change colour to dimmable windscreens.液晶显示屏是一项成熟而广泛应用的技术。但如果牛津大学的Harish Bhaskaran的想法实现，液晶屏的好景也就没几天了。LCD的基本特征是其像素在非晶相和类晶相间转化，因此改变其光学性质。在本周的《自然》杂志上，Bhaskaran博士及其同事陈述了一种类似的固体材料。至少该材质可以防止当LCD猛烈坠地后产生麻烦的抽象印象派图案。最理想情况下，它会有新的应用范围，从变色布料到可调光挡风玻璃。

Solid phase-change materials are already used to store data in optical memory disks.They are also being considered for use in memory chips, because the switch between amorphous and crystalline states alters their electrical properties in ways that can store electronic bits of data.Dr Bhaskaran, though, has shown that thin enough films of the right sort of material can be made to change colour, too.固态相变材料已经用于在光储存盘中储存数据。也可能被用于记忆芯片，因为其非晶态和晶态之间的转变也改变了其电学性能，因此他们能储存电子数据。然而，Bhaskaran博士展示了一种特定材料膜，在足够薄的情况下也可以改变颜色。

This property would make them suitable both for displays that rely on reflected light(so-called electronic paper)and the older, backlit sort that rely on transmitted light.The resulting displays would be thin and could be flexible if printed on the right material—increasing the range of applications they might be used in.And they would consume little power, since energy need be used only when a pixel has to be flipped from one phase to another.这一性能将使其适合于反射光显示（所谓电子纸）和早期的依赖透射光的背光显示。所得显示屏不仅薄，而且铺在合适材料上时非常灵活，增加了其应用范围。而且它消耗的功率更少，因为这种材料只需要在变相的时候消耗能量。The researchers' material of choice is an alloy of germanium, antimony and tellurium.Both the crystalline and the amorphous phases of this substance are stable at any temperature a device is likely to experience, and thin films of it are more or less transparent.The power needed to effect the phase change could be fed to individual pixels by electrodes made of indium tin oxide, which is also transparent.研究人员选择的材料是镓、锑和碲合金。这一物质的晶态和非晶态在任何设备适用温度下都很稳定。其薄膜也几乎透明。要激发相转变所需的能量可以由透明的铟锡氧化物电极向单个像素提供。

The colour of a pixel would depend not only on its phase, but also on its thickness, which would affect the way light waves being reflected within it interfere with one another, cancelling out some frequencies while amplifying others.(The effect is similar to the creation of colours by a thin layer of oil on a puddle.)Generally, the alloy layer needs to be thinner than 20 nanometres for that to happen.单个像素的颜色不仅取决于其相态，也同其厚度有关。厚度会影响光波在两个像素间界面处的反射，削弱部分频率，加强其他频率。（此效应类似于池塘表面薄油层产生的色彩。）一般来说，合金层需要薄于20 nm才会发生这一现象。

To demonstrate their idea, the researchers sprayed films of their alloy onto pieces of silicon, quartz and plastic.They then used a device called an atomic-force microscope, which has a tip a few nanometres across, to apply appropriate electric currents in a grid pattern across the film's surface.This grid mimicked an array of pixels, creating a stable pattern.The result, as their picture of a Japanese wave shows, is a recognisable image—if not, yet, a perfect one.为了证明其观点，研究人员将其合金铺覆到硅，石英和塑料上。然后他们使用所谓原子力显微镜的设备来施加合适的电流在横穿膜表面的网格上。原子力显微镜尖端仅有几个纳米大小。网格模仿像素排列，产生稳定的模式。他们对日本电波的拍摄结果是一个可识别的图像，即便不可识别，也是非常完美的。

Adding the indium-tin-oxide electrodes is a more complicated process, but to show it can be done in principle, Dr Bhaskaran has made a single pixel this way.Whether his idea will get off the lab bench and into the shops remains to be seen.It is by no means the only suggestion around for a new generation of display screens.But it looks plausible.加入铟锡氧化物电极是更为复杂的过程，但是可以从原理上展示其过程。Bhaskaran用这种方式制备了单个像素。他的想法能否从实验室走进商用还是未知。这绝不是新一代显示屏的唯一方案，但颇得看好。05.18 Mitochondria and male lifespan 粒腺体影响男性寿命 Power down 粒腺体阻断

Women outlive men.An evolutionary curiosity may explain this 女性比男性寿命长久。欲知为何，请看进化学分解 Mankiller? 男性健康杀手？

WHY past generations regarded women as the weaker sex is a mystery to anyone who has examined the question objectively, for they are far stronger than men—outliving them in pretty well every society in the world.Partly that is because men are more violent, and their violence is largely directed at other men.But partly it is physiological.Men seem to wear out faster than women do.Yet no one knows why.过去，人们认为女性比男性弱，而这对于客观地调查过此现象的人来说是个迷，因为女性比男性寿命长，很多国家或地区都是如此。在一定程度上，这可能是因为男性要狂暴一些，而且他们的狂暴是针对其他男性。但也有可能是受生理影响。男性精力耗损要比女性快。个中缘由还没有人知道。

Madeleine Beekman of the University of Sydney, Australia, and her colleagues, however, have a hypothesis.As they outline in a paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, they think at least some of the blame lies with subcellular structures called mitochondria(pictured), which provide the body with its power by burning glucose and using the energy thus released to make ATP, a molecule that is biology's universal fuel.玛德琳·比克曼是澳大利亚悉尼大学工作者，她跟同事一起提出一种假说。他们在皇家学会哲学学报发表的一篇论文中指出，男性寿命比女性短的原因可能取决于亚细胞结构，也就是粒腺体。粒腺体通过燃烧葡萄糖为机体提供能量，利用该能量释放三磷腺苷，三磷腺苷是整个机体的燃料。

Mitochondria are intriguing.They are descendants of bacteria that teamed up with the ancestors of animal and plant cells about a billion years ago.As such, they retain their own genes.And this is where the problems start.To avoid fights between genetically different mitochondria in the same cell, most species have arranged for their mitochondria to come from only one parent—usually the mother.This means, as Dr Beekman notes, that a male's mitochondria are stuck in an evolutionary dead end.They cannot evolve in male-specific ways, because no matter how much good they do a male body they inhabit, they will not be passed on to the next generation.粒腺体很有趣。他们是细菌与十亿年前的动物或植物祖先的衍生物。如此便保留住了基因。这就是问题的开始。从遗传学角度讲，为了避免同一个细胞内不同的粒腺体相互排斥，大多数生物都会选择系属同一个细胞的线粒体，通常是同一个雌细胞。如比克曼博士所提到的一样，雄性线粒体陷入进化死胡同。雄性线粒体不能逐渐形成雄性专一方式，因为雄性线粒体在雄性生物体上栖息的多么好，都不能繁衍到下一代。

Male and female physiologies are sufficiently similar for this not to be a central problem, but Dr Beekman thinks it may matter at the margins.She observes that one disease, called Leber's hereditary optic neuropathy, which is caused by a faulty mitochondrial gene, occurs in only 10% of women whose cellular power-packs include the damaged gene, but in 50% of men whose mitochondria are so encumbered.The gene in question, in other words, is less likely to harm a woman than a man.She then lists a lot of other diseases, including ones far commoner than Leber's hereditary optic neuropathy(such as cardiomyopathy, diabetes and several forms of deafness)that sometimes or always have a mitochondrial component, and speculates that some of these, too, may prove to be either more common or more serious in men than in women.As far as her searches of the literature can show, this is not something that has yet been looked into.这和女性和男性生生理机能十分相似，但又不是中心问题。比克曼博士认为，这可能关系到margin。她仔细观察了一种名为利伯氏视神经病变的疾病，是有缺陷的粒腺体基因引起的。女性的发病率只有10%，女性细胞还包括受损细胞。而男性发病率高达50%，主要是粒腺体堵塞引起的。比克曼博士又列举出了其他疾病，这比利伯氏视神经病变要常见的多（例如心肌病、糖尿病和其他耳聋症），这些疾病有时或经常含有粒腺体成分。男性患此类疾病的发病率比女性高，男性患者也比女性患者病情严重的多。此篇论文的研究程度所达程度并不是如此，而且这类问题早已有人考虑过。

Part of the reason for this absence of information may be that few doctors think like evolutionary biologists, so they fail to ask the appropriate questions.Dr Beekman's hypothesis may turn out to be wrong.But it sounds eminently plausible, and certainly worth investigating.关于这些研究缺乏信息可能是因为没有几个医生研究这类问题，比如进化生物学，他们也无法提出合适的问题。比克曼教授的假说也许是错误的，但是，这种假说看起来很有道理，有研究价值。0104 Astrophysics 天体物理 Dust to dust 尘归尘，土归土

A dramatic recent “discovery” in physics is looking rather dodgy 近期，物理学中的一项戏剧性发现看上出非常模糊

IN MARCH Chao-Lin Kuo, an astrophysicist at Stanford University, filmed himself knocking on the door of his colleague Andrei Linde.In the 1980s Dr Linde was one of several cosmologists who developed the theory of cosmic inflation, which holds that, in the first instants of its existence, the universe underwent a brief period of faster-than-light expansion.三月，斯坦福大学天体物理学家郭兆林拍下了自己造访同事Andrei Linde的一幕。上世纪80年代，Linden博士是少有的几位发展了宇宙膨胀论的宇宙学家。宇宙膨胀论认为，在其出现的那一瞬间，宇宙经历了一段超光速膨胀。

Because inflation neatly cleaves several knotty problems in cosmology, many astrophysicists(though not all)subscribe to the theory.But direct, unambiguous evidence for it has been lacking.That was why Dr Kuo was visiting Dr Linde—to tell him that, thanks to the work of a telescope in Antarctica called BICEP-2, such evidence had now been found.After digesting the news, an emotional Dr Linde broke open a bottle of champagne to celebrate.The video has been viewed almost 3m times.因为膨胀论能完整解释宇宙学中的一些难题，许多天体物理学家都倾向于该理论。但是膨胀论仍缺乏直接、清晰的证据。这正是郭博士拜访Linde博士的原因—在南极洲的BICEP-2天文望远镜发现了这种证据。收到消息后，Linde博士开了一瓶香槟来庆祝。这段视频已经被浏览了将近300万次。

It now seems that Dr Kuo might have to make a new video, informing Dr Linde that he has wasted a bottle of bubbly.A paper just released by the team behind Planck, a European space telescope, casts serious doubt on the BICEP-2 result.What looked like a clear window back into the earliest moments of the universe might simply have been a faint glow from the diaphanous clouds of dust that exist between the stars.现在好像郭博士不得不再做一个视频，告诉Linde博士他浪费了一瓶香槟。新近有文献报道称，欧洲的普朗克天文望远镜拍到了对BICEP研究构成重大质疑的结果。回溯到宇宙最初时间，看上去似乎是清晰的窗户的图像可能仅仅是恒星间的透明灰云折射的淡淡光芒。The BICEP-2 team, led by John Kovac of Harvard University, had been studying the cosmic microwave background radiation(CMB)—a weak bath of radiation, left over from the Big Bang, that suffuses the universe.They were looking for evidence of primordial gravitational waves.These are ripples in the fabric of space, created, if the theory of inflation is correct, as the early universe was undergoing its post-creation growth spurt.由哈佛大学John Kovac领导的BICEP-2小组长期研究宇宙微波背景辐射，即一种由大爆炸产生的微弱辐射，弥漫在宇宙中。他们在找寻原始引力波的证据。如果膨胀论是正确的的话，那么这种由宇宙在初创后迸发过程中产生的波会存在于空间架构中。A dusty trail 布满尘埃的小径

Such waves should have left a distinctive, polarised mark imprinted upon the CMB.And, in a press conference on March 17th, that is exactly what the BICEP-2 team claimed to have found.It was the biggest news in physics since the discovery, in 2012, of the Higgs boson, and it was widely covered(including in The Economist).Not only would the BICEP result have confirmed the theory of inflation, but studying the gravitational waves it purported to have found would have given cosmologists a way to look back to the very earliest moments of the universe.这种波应该在宇宙微波辐射背景上留下了一个独特的、极化的记号。并且，在3月17日的新闻发布会上，BICEP-2小组宣布发现的，正是这个记号。这是从2012年希格斯玻色子发现以来，物理学界最大的新闻，并广为传播（包括《经济学人》）。BICEP的结果不仅确认了膨胀论这么简单，研究他们宣称所发现的引力波，将为宇宙学家提供一条回溯宇宙最开始的时刻的方法。

But gravitational waves are not the only things that BICEP-2 might have picked up.The Milky Way is filled with thin clouds of interstellar dust which, under the influence of the galaxy's magnetic field, scatter and polarise starlight.The BICEP team were confident that the contamination from the dust was small enough not to affect their detection of gravitational waves.But the behaviour of the dust is poorly understood, says Chris Lintott, an astronomer at Oxford University, and not everyone was convinced.但是引力波并不是BICEP-2发现的唯一一件事情。银河中遍布的星级尘埃，在星系磁场的作用下，散射或极化星光。BICEP小组相信，灰尘的污染非常小，不足以影响其对引力波的测定。但是牛津大学的天文学家Chris Lintott称，对灰尘行迹我们理解不足，而且无法令所有人信服。

The Planck results suggest that they were right to be sceptical.The European telescope has just unveiled a map of dust density across the entire sky.It suggests that, contrary to the BICEP team's hopes, the signal from the dust is so strong that the telescope might well have seen no primordial gravity waves at all.Planck小组的结果说明，怀疑论者是正确的。欧洲天文望远镜最近提出了一份整个天空中的灰尘的密度分布图。分布图显示，同BICEP小组的假定相反，灰尘发出的信号很强，天文望远镜甚至无法检测到任何的原始引力波。

That, at least, is the most likely interpretation, but it is not the only one.The Planck team are careful to stop short of saying that their results are fatal to BICEP's claims, pointing out that applying their data to the BICEP results involves considerable “statistical and systematic uncertainties”.There are, in other words, a couple of glimmers of hope that signs of inflation have actually been seen.One is that the precise behaviour of the dust is still mysterious, which means the mathematical transformations used to apply Planck's data to BICEP's results may turn out to be incorrect.And even if those maths are sound, statistics may ride to the rescue—for if the amount of radiation from the dust is at the lowest end of Planck's estimates, a small gravitational-wave signal may survive.至少这是最有可能的解释。但却不是唯一的。普朗克小组谨慎地不曾宣称他们的结果对BICEP小组的声明有颠覆效果，而是指出，将他们所获得的数据应用于BICEP的结论中会产生可观的“统计学和系统上的不确定性”。换句话说，有些闪烁有望作为膨胀论确实存在的证据。一方面，灰尘行迹的精确表述依然是个谜，也就是说，将普朗克小组的数据转换为BICEP结果的数学过程可能是错误的。而且即使这些数学转换可靠，数据也可能出现问题。因为如果灰尘的辐射数量处在普朗克小组估计的最低端，可能会有一点点引力波信号留存。Rowing back on a triumphant announcement about the first instants of creation may be a little embarrassing, but the saga is a useful reminder of how science works.There is no suggestion that anyone has behaved dishonourably.Admittedly, the BICEP team's original press conference looks, with hindsight, seriously overconfident.More information-sharing between the various gravitational wave-hunters, all of whom guard their data jealously, might have helped tone down the triumphalism.But science, ideally, proceeds by exactly this sort of good-faith argument and honourable squabbling—until the weight of evidence forces one side to admit defeat.收回早期的胜利宣言可能有点尴尬，但是这个冒险非常恰当地提醒了我们，科学工作者的工作方式。没人会觉得谁的表现有愧其身份。固然，BICEP小组最初的新闻发布会，事后来看，过度自信了。在各种引力波守望者当中共享贡多信息可能有助于缓和这种胜利主义，可惜他们都视自己的数据如命根子。但是，想象中的科学，正是通过这种善意的争论和尊重彼此的吵闹，直到证据的分量迫使一方承认失败。

That could happen soon: the Planck and BICEP teams have pooled their data and are working on a joint paper, expected to be published in the next few months.Information from other gravity-wave hunting experiments—including some run by the BICEP team themselves—will shed extra light, too.It is not yet impossible that Dr Kovac and his colleagues will be proved right after all.But at this point it would take a brave cosmologist to bet on it.这一幕可能很快上演：普朗克小组和BICEP小组已将各自的数据凑到一起，并联合撰写论文，预计将于接下来的几个月中发表。通过其他引力波探测实验，包括BICEP小组自己的，将会摆脱多余的光。可能最终Kovac博士及其同事无法自圆其说。但在这一时刻，需要勇敢的天文学家站出来孤注一掷。

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