第一篇：欧洲难民危机升级
[原创]我们无法应付这股洪流！欧洲边境已经无法控制，免签证旅游区处在崩溃的边缘！
小虎很虎2015/9/3 15:08:06收藏 分享 > 6284 欧洲难民危机升级！德国承认它不再能应付大量涌入！昨晚边境控制被重新启动。德国被迫要求意大利加强边境管制之后，欧盟的护照自由行区在崩溃的边缘。
成千上万的难民从渡船上出现在希腊首都雅典的街道上，一股无法阻挡的洪流！
难民想要通过警戒线，越过边境，从希腊到马其顿，与军队发生剧烈冲突！
叙利亚移民在希腊与马其顿的交叉边境，不顾危险爬下陡峭的铁路轨道路堤。
希腊马其顿边境男孩走在轨道上。明天就会到达目的地！现实情况并不像他想的那么简单！
难民人群聚集在挪威去意大利卡利亚里港口的入口。德国要求意大利在布伦内罗，在与奥地利的边境实施检查！
一名穿红上衣、深色短裤的溺亡男童被冲到岸边，脸部朝下埋在沙中，身体不断被海浪拍打，让人看了非常不舍；随后有警察抱走他的尸体。
该名男童应是3岁的艾兰，他的5岁哥哥加利普和母亲蕾哈娜也同样溺亡，只有父亲阿卜杜拉生存下来。
阿卜杜拉库德人来到太平间!
为他的妻子和叙利亚男孩准备做最后的旅程
心碎的阿卜杜拉！
土耳其官方表示，两艘满载叙利亚难民的小船，2日从土耳其博德鲁姆出发要前往希腊的科斯岛，双双翻覆，23人中12人死亡，包括1名妇女和5名孩童；另救起9人，其中1人送医後伤重不治。
在火车站捷克警察用记号笔对儿童写下数字！在通往匈牙利和奥地利的火车上拘捕超过200名难民，大多来自叙利亚布雷科夫！
捷克绝大多数反对收容难民，据八月调查当地民调机构集中，百分之93的受访者表示，他们应该返回他们的原籍国。”他们不是纸面上的数字！他们是人！“面对维权人士引用伦理方的论述。
布拉格律师马立克费克根据法律“我知道这很困难，因为难民没有文件。民众认为警察有权这样做”
警察与成千上万的难民陷入对峙！
警察告诉他们没有有效证件不能登上火车到德国后大约3000名移民正在布达佩斯凯莱蒂站主要入口处对持！
数百人聚集在布达佩斯市中心凯莱蒂站的入口处！
数百难民车站外面与警察紧张对峙！大声呼喊“自由，自由”！
许多人在不断扩大的人群中发布恳求的消息，包括这一个：“欧洲帮助“！
在地铁站附近，许多难民在地下通道等待他们的命运！
当难民等待车站重新开放时，愤怒正在蔓延。不像其他一些欧盟国家，捷克当局认为移民进入该国前应该在出发地发出庇护的请求！
面对封锁，大声高喊“自由，自由”的难民与警察紧张对峙！
抗议中！叙利亚女孩举起一个“帮助我”牌子！
正在制作阿富汗和叙利亚难民的需求口号！
匈牙利警察在布达佩斯的凯莱蒂火车站外面对难民！
抗议中！阿富汗和叙利亚的难民把孩子裹在毛毯里，提醒他们才刚刚逃离恐怖。
难民要求他们能前往德国!
绝望的难民情绪低落！
小女孩睡在长椅上，他家人已经被驱离！
求救！
难民男孩持有一个签名，声称匈牙利警察拿走了他的钱和护照。
匈牙利警方在一份声明中说，他们打算在难民数量继续增加的时候到达塞尔维亚增加难民营数量！
绝望的难民家庭被匈牙利当局从开往奥地利火车的列车上拖走，要带他们去难民营。
紧张对峙后两天匈牙利警察从布达佩斯车站撤退，引发了混乱的场面人群冲进了一列固定的火车，相信他们被允许去奥地利和德国，难民面临的依然是挫折，附近所有的火车与船全部停用！
第二篇：安吉丽娜朱莉--难民危机
安吉丽娜•朱莉---难民危机
Thank You.I’m very very honor to be here.谢谢，我非常非常荣幸来到这里。
Over 60 million people are displaced today.More than at any time in the last 70 years.That is one in every 122 people.This tell us something deeply worrying about the peace and security of our world.It said that for all other advances this type of human insecurity is growing faster than our ability to prevent or reverse it.现在有超过六千万的人们被迫离开家乡，比过去70年的任何时候都要多，每122个人中就有一个。这让我们对世界的和平与安全表示担忧，人们的不安全形势发展的太快，我们已经没有能力去阻止或扭转这种形势。
The international humanitarian system is supposed to work on the basis that refugees will be protected largely in camps where they can be given basic food, shelter, education as a temporary measure until they are able to return to their homes.During this time, the exceptional cases of the most vulnerable people can be identified for asylum in a third country and then moved.That is how the system has worked and how it should work.Today we are seeing it break down.Not because the model is flawed or because refugees are behaving differently, but because the number of conflicts and scale of displacement have grown so large.In the past 6 years, 15 conflicts have erupted or reignited.国际人道主义制度运行的基础是难民们在难民营中受到充分保护，在那里难民们有最基本的食物、庇护所和教育作为临时保障，直至他们返回自己的家乡。在这期间，可以认定特别困难的人群在第三国寻求庇护并且定居。这就是国际人道主义制度的运作方式，并且应该这样运作。现在我们看到制度没有起作用，不是因为制度本身有缺陷或者难民们的行为异样，而是因为冲突的数量和难民的规模已经增长得太快了。在过去6年中，爆发了15起大规模的冲突，The average time a person will be displaced is now 20 years, 20 years and excel.The number of refugees returning to their homes is the lowest it is bend in 3 decades.Africa has more people displace than ever before, and millions of refugees live without sufficient food or proper shelter let alone education because UN appeals are drastically underfunded.The UNHCR appeal for the Central African Republic for example is less than 3% funded.With this then the state of today’s world is it any surprised that some of this desperate people who are running out all options and who seeing no hope of returning home would make push to Europe as a last resort even at risk of death.现在人们远离故乡的时间平均为20年，甚至高于20年，难民们返回故乡的时间最少也要30年。因为联合国的需求极度缺乏资金支持，非洲被迫离乡的难民数量比以往都要高，数百万的难民没有充足的食物、合适的住所，更不用说教育了。例如，联合国难民署对中非共和国的资助只得到了不到3%的资金支持。就现在的形势，那些走投无路的人们看不到回家的希望，只能抓住欧洲这最后的希望，哪怕冒着生命危险。
The question is how are we respond as democracies and as an international community to this major test of our values and our resolve.The spotlight has been firmly on Europe, but the crisis in Europe is only a fraction of the global refugee problem and there for the solutions been discussed for Europe are only a fraction of the overall answer.We in the west are neither at the center of the refugee crisis nor for the most parts the one’s making the greatest sacrifice.The majority of the world’s refugees live in country such as Turkey, Pakistan, Lebanon, Iran, Ethiopia and Jordan.So my argument is that unless we address the root causes of the crisis.We will not seen it slowing of the number of refugees crossing borders and in fact quite the opposite.Countries around the world will be ask to do more and more.European nations are current negotiating to resettle 10% of refugees from just one conflict: Syria.Well, other countries are bursting at the scenes with millions of refugees from multiple conflicts.So what we must do first and foremost as citizens is to demand our government show the leadership necessary to address the fundamental courses of the refugee crisis at a global level.This is the wilder picture that I would like to dress today.现在的问题是我们作为民主国家，作为国际社会应该如何回应对我们的价值和决心的巨大考验。公众的注意力一直聚在欧洲，但是欧洲的危机只是全球难民问题的一部分。我们讨论的关于解决欧洲问题的方法只是解决全部问题的一种。我们西方国家既不是难民危机的中心，也未做出最大的牺牲。全球的难民主要分布在土耳其、巴基斯坦、黎巴嫩、伊朗、埃塞俄比亚和约旦。所以我认为，除非我们能从根源上解决问题，否则我们不会看到穿越边境的难民数量会减少，事实上还会增加，世界各国的压力会越来越大。欧洲国家现在在商讨重新安置10%的难民，只是从叙利亚一个冲突地区。然而，其他国家面临众多冲突导致数百万的难民已人满为患。所以我们作为民众首要任务是：要求政府从国际层面展现出对难民危机必要的解决基本问题的领导力，这是我今天从宏观层面想表达的观点。
I know that no one can speak for 60 million displace people, and I know that it is the democratic right of the citizens of each country to reach their own conclusions about the right way forward.I there prefer put my thoughts before you with humility and respect seeking to understand all points of view.On one hand, the refugee crisis has produce great acts of generosity and solidarity with refugees here in Europe and other parts of the world.And on the other hand, fear of uncontrolled migration has eroded public confidence and the ability of governments and international institutions to control the situation.It has given space to a false air of legitimacy to those who promote politics of fear and separation.It has created the risk of a race to the bottom with country’s competing to be the toughest in the hope of protecting themselves whatever it cost or challenge their neighbors and despite their international responsibilities.But since no country can sail itself out from the impact of the refugee crisis such a free for all would lead to an even greater site of problems.It would mount to the worst of both worlds failing to tackle the issue and undermining international law and our values in the process.我知道没有人可以代替六千万无家可归的人说话，我知道这是每个国家公民的民主权利来通过正确的方法做出自己的决定。我秉持谦逊和尊敬之意，在此阐述自己的观点，也希望了解各方观点。一方面，难民危机唤起了众多在欧洲和世界其他地方对难民的团结慷慨之举，另一方面，对无管制移民的恐惧削弱了民众的信心，以及政府和国际组织掌控局势的能力。这给那些推动政治恐惧和分裂的人提供了错误的合法空间，这恐怕将发展成为一场逐底竞争，各国竞相采取严酷手段，为求自保而不顾一切代价，不顾邻国安危，甚至置国际责任于不顾。但是既然没有国家能免受难民危机的影响，这种混乱会引发更大的问题，给双方都带来最坏的结果。无法解决问题，破坏国际法律和我们的价值观。
And there is another factor, at the moment when we need strong collective action, we are questioning our ability to cope with international crisis.I am sure that many people listening feel this.We have watched the events of the last few decades, wanting to see progress, probably feeling that we’re doing our part to make that happen.But after so many years of failed attempts by governments and leaders to do the right thing, we feel angry, we feel cheated, we feel confused.We’re starting to think that maybe it is simply not possible to make a lasting difference.But the worst possible choice we would make is to decide to step back from the world.另一个事实是，在我们需要团结一致的行动时，我们却质疑自己应对国际危机的能力，我相信很多在座的听众皆有同感。我们见证了过去几十年的事件，渴望看到进步，可能也在为取得进步而尽一己之力，但是经过这么多年政府和领导人失败的努力之后。我们感到愤怒，感到受到了欺骗，感到迷茫，我们甚至开始感觉到也许根本不可能做出永久的改变。但是我们做出的最坏的选择是对这个世界不闻不问。
The last time there was this number of refugees was after World War Ⅱ, when nations came together to forge the United Nations, the UN Charter and Universal Declaration of Human Rights.I believe this is again that once in a generation moment when nations have to pull together.How we respond will determine whether we create a more stable world or face decades of far greater instability.At extremes, the debate about refugees in western nations has been polarized, with on one hand some people calling for open borders, and on the other hand for the complete exclusion of all refugees, or worse, for certain groups of refugees.But policies should not be driven by emotion, by what might be termed as “naïve humanitarianism” placing the perceived needs of refugees above all other considerations, or by our rational fear and unacceptable prejudice.Instead, we need to find a rational center, rebuilding public confidence and ensuring democratic consent for the long-term approach that will be needed.上一次世界上有这么多的难民是在二战以后，那时各国联合起来成立了联合国，颁布了《联合国宪章》和《世界人权宣言》，我相信这又是一个百年一遇的时刻，各国应齐心协力。我们的反应将决定我们是能够创造一个更稳定的世界，还是将面临几十年更大的混乱。在这种极端的情况下，关于西方国家的难民讨论也走向极端。一方面有人呼吁开放边境，另一方面，有人要求排斥所有难民或者更恶劣的情况：排斥部分特定的难民。但政策的制定不应被这些因素左右，例如感情，将难民的需要置于一切其他考虑之上的所谓的“简单人道主义”或者合理的恐惧和不应有的偏见。相反，我们需要建立一个理性的中心重建民众信心并保证对所需的长久之计达成民主共识。
I believe each government should make a new compact with its people, setting out what their country can contribute based on an objective assessment of the needs, of the available resources and capacity of local communities to absorb certain numbers of refugees where that is appropriate.It calls for policies which balance the needs of local communities with the needs of refugees.We shall properly fund it, communicate it and implement it consistently over time.The point is every country must do its fair share and no country can abdicate its responsibility.I suggest this should be based on four principles.我认为，各国政府与其人民达成新的一致找到他们可以出力的地方，客观评估难民需要、可利用的资源以及当地的承受能力，在合适的地区接纳一定数量的难民，这需要能够平衡当地居民需求和难民需求的政策。我们要对其长久合理地投入资金、交流沟通、贯彻执行。关键在于，每个国家都要公平承担责任，任何国家都不能逃避。我建议如下四点原则：
First, It is not wrong for citizens in any country faced with the sudden surge of people seeking refugee within their borders to want to know that there are strong processes in place to prevent law and order, to preserve and to protect their security.No one should be crossing a border and not registering and going through asylum process.第一，任何国家的居民面对突然大批涌入自己国家寻求庇护的难民，都有权知道，有强大的法律和秩序来保护他们的安全。任何人都不应在未登记注册的情况下跨越边境或进入庇护程序。
Second, it is important to maintain the distinction between refugees and economic migrants.An economic migrant chooses to move in order to improve their lives or livelihoods.Refugees have to move if they’re deceived their lives and preserved their freedoms.However difficult the situations migrants are seeking to escape, however understandable their motivation, there is no blanket human right to resettle in another country.And there is no answer to global poverty and insecurity that involves the mass transfer of people.To put it in another way, all human beings deserve equal human rights.But all people seeking asylum do not have equal grounds for asylum.Everyone must respect the laws and asylum procedures.That said, we must bear in mind that the distinction is complex and must never be used as a way of dismissing migrants who have valid claim for asylum.第二，明确难民和经济移民的区别十分重要。经济移民选择移居是为了提高生活水平或为了生计，而难民是在生命受到威胁、自由受到限制时，不得不移居。无论经济移民试图逃离的环境多么恶劣，不管他们的动机多么合理，在另一个国家重新定居都没有完整的人权。面对涉及大规模人口迁移的全球贫困和安全问题，我们却无确切答案。换句话说，所有人都应享有平等的人权，但是寻求庇护的人们却没有得到平等的庇护。每个人都必须尊重法律和庇护申请程序，这就是说，我们必须牢记，区别是很复杂的，但这绝不是拒绝合法申请庇护的移民的理由。
I will add that we would fail the basic test of humanity if we discriminate between refugees on the basis of religion, race or ethnicity.When I meet a refugee I do not see a Muslin refugee or a Christian refugee or a Yazidi, I see a mother, or a father, a son or a daughter, a person within equal right to stand in dignity on this planet.Populations uprooted are the future of their countries.These are decent families registering and waiting peacefully for a chance to return home.And the majority of them are women and children.We should never make them feel like beggars, or worse, like a commodity to be traded between countries, a burden or ever a threat, or that their children are not considered equal to others.Nobody wants to be a refugee.Nobody deserves to be a refugee.And for as long as war, it’s part of the human condition.None of us are immune to becoming refugees.So all refugees merit equal, respect and compassion.另外，如果我们根据难民的宗教信仰或种族来对听他们加以区分，我们将失掉最基本的人性。当我看到一个难民的时候，我看到的不是穆斯林或基督教徒或雅兹迪教徒，我看见的是一位母亲、父亲、儿子或女儿，一个与其他人享有平等权利、有尊严地活着的人。这些被赶出家园的人是他们国家的未来。这些礼貌的人们申请登记、平静地等待着重返家园的机会。他们中的大部分人是妇女和儿童，我们永远不能让他们感觉自己是乞丐，或更恶劣的国家之间进行交易的商品、负担甚至是威胁，或他们的孩子低人一等。没人想成为难民，没有人应该成为难民。只要战争存在，这就是人类现状，我们每个人都有可能成为难民的可能，因此，所有的难民都应受到平等对待、尊重和同情。
Third, it would be naïve to think that we can protect ourselves selectively alone from challenges in the globalized world by pulling away from other countries or peoples.As with any global problem in the 21st century uncoordinated national responses are not the answer and unstable world is an unsafe world for all.And there is no barrier high enough to protect from such disorder and desperation.If your neighbor’s house is on fire, you are not safe if you lock your doors.Isolationism is not strength.Fragmentation is not the answer.Strength lies in being unafraid in working with others and living up to our highest ideals.We must not change who we are because we face a crisis.第三，如果我们认为疏远其他国家和人民就能逃避全球化世界的挑战，从而有选择地保护自己，那将是非常幼稚的。21世纪的任何全球性问题都需要国家之间协调解决。对于任何人来说，不稳定的世界就是不安全的世界。没有任何屏障足以抵挡如此混乱和绝望，辅车相依，唇齿相连（城门失火，殃及池鱼）。孤独主义不是力量，分裂破碎不是答案。不畏与他国合作实现最高理想才是力量所在，我们不能因为危机而改变自己。And finally, none of these will be enough unless we address the underlying causes of refugee crisis.Shouldn’t we been asking how to make the world more stable rather than asking how to stabilize a mass of displace people.What are the failures and flows of our international system that are causing the number of refugees grow larger everyday.We need to recognize the decades of broken promises, double standers and partial justice are fundamental part of how we got today’s situation.If we look back and see this many people displaced, and this much conflict and so little accountability then we have to question the source of the problem.最后，除非我们从根源解决难民危机，否则我们所做的一切都还不够。我们应该让世界更稳定，而不是稳定大量的难民。到底是国际体系中哪些不足造成难民数量日益剧增。我们必须意识到数十年来的违背诺言、双重标准、部分正义导致我们走到今天这种情况。如果我们回头看，有这么多人流离失所，有这么多冲突，责任义务却少之又少，那么我们不得不质疑问题的根源。
When the Security Council member uses its veto when civilians are being killed by their own government or we turn away too soon from a conflict situation or cases refer to the international criminal court and then we don’t give it sufficient support.When we don’t help nations treat fairly in the world so that they can stand on their own.We partially meet UN aid appeal and think that we have achieve something.In all these cases, the consequence is deeper conflict and wilder instability which leads to the type of mass displacement we are dealing with today.If these things continue to happen there will be further displacement and more people on the borders of Europe and elsewhere.The long term answer involves founding our world on laws and accountability.However distant that ideal and genuinely working towards the common interests achieving this will be the work of generations but it underscores why we cannot step back from the effort to build a more stable world beyond our borders and a better future for our children.当安理会成员使其否决权，当公民被政府杀害或是我们不去面对冲突局面，或是对于涉及国际刑事法院的案子，我们不给予足够的支持，我们不帮助一些国家受到公平待遇让他们站稳脚跟，我们只是回应了一部分联合国援助呼吁而且认为自己已经有所成就。在所有这些情况下，将导致更深的矛盾和更大范围的不稳定，从而造成我们今天所面临的大规模移民的情况，如果这些持续发生，欧洲边界和其他地方将会有更大数量的难民。长远的解决方法是建立法律和责任的世界，无论这个理想有多遥远，都真诚地朝着共同利益前进。实现这个理想需要几代人的努力，但它强调了我们为什么必须努力建立一个超越边界的更稳定的世界，为我们的后代建立一个更美好的未来。
Yes, it is a difficult time in history where there are people bent on violence with no thought for the lives that are ruined by their actions but we have been through tough times and we have faced the worst in humanity on the global scale with people intent on destroying our democracies and we have fought back from that.We have more awareness and we have matched bigger enemies.And if we learn anything from the past, this is what should rally us together, not withdrawing but deciding to come together and show leadership.This is the duty that falls on all of us to the next UN Secretary General, to all governments, to civil society, to every one of us.And whether we succeed we’ll help define this century.The alternative is chaos and further displacement.A world without order and law, and institutions built by our predecessors buckling under the stream of human catastrophe that we could have prevented.是的，现在是一段艰难的时间，因为有人倾向于暴力，毫不关心被他们毁掉的生命。但是我们曾经历苦难，我们曾面对世界上最惨无人道的事，我们曾面对有人刻意破坏民主，我们都进行了反击。我们有了更多的认识，也有了更大的敌人。如果说我们从过去学到了什么，那就是我们应该团结起来，绝不退缩，齐心协力，起表率作用。这是我们所有人肩上的责任，是下一任联合国秘书长的责任，是各国政府的责任，是民间社会的责任，是我们每一个人的责任。无论成功与否，我们都会明白混乱和更多难民没有法律和秩序的世界，我们前辈建立的机构屈服于人类灾难，这些本都是我们可以阻止的。
Thank you very much!非常感谢！
第三篇：欧洲移民危机
Premier GKFX
Today though we are looking at the Impact of the immigrant crisis on Europe，今天我们来看一下移民危机对欧洲的影响。
This is a thorny subject and one beset with both moral,humanitarian conflict and economic considerations.这是一个烫手的山芋，既有道德和人道主义纷争，又有经济方面的考量。
However the rise in immigration has now become a major issue in Europe, exaggerated in the past couple of years by the numerous conflicts that have sprung up in the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans which have further accelerated this year.The stream of poignant and heartrending pictures of refugee migrants and their families trying to make their way north after having crossed the Mediterranean or Aegean Sea can have left no viewer untouched.But it also illustrates an age-old truth that on top of those fleeing war and unrest at home these migrants also want to work and simply to build a better quality of life for themselves and their families in a safe far off land.Many have simply walked their way out with only a pitiful handful of possessions or simply the clothes they stand up in whilst others in the professional classes have made the same difficult choice and arrived by more conventional methods.然而，现在移民激增成为欧洲的一个大问题，过去几年中，这一情况不断恶化，由于中东、非洲以及巴尔干半岛危机，今年的形势愈加严重。难民移民和他们的家人试图穿越地中海或者爱情海北上，场景十分悲惨、心酸，让人无不为之动容。但这也解释了一个古老的真理，在逃离家园战争和**的背后，这些移民也希望为自己建立一种更好的生活，为他们的家人寻找一片安全的乐土。不少人只带上简单的随身衣物就上路了，一些职业阶层的人也做了同样艰难的选择，采取了更加传统的方法到达欧洲。
In Europe today that mostly means going to Germany, Scandinavia, Britain and some other places such as the Netherlands by way of the open borders of existing EU members where unemployment levels are low in comparison with the likes of Spain and Greece.Germany, at 4.7%.has the lowest unemployment rate in the whole of the EU whilst Greece has the highest unemployment rate at 25% followed by Spain at 22.2%.在今天的欧洲，通往德国、斯堪的纳维亚半岛、英国和其他一些国家比如荷兰，通常的做法是借由现有欧盟国家开放的边境，那里的失业率比西班牙和希腊的失业率要低。德国的失业率为4.7%，在整个欧盟国家中，失业水平最低。希腊的失业率最高，达到25%，西班牙以22.2%的失业率紧随其后。
As the free movement of labour is one of the founding principles of the European Union, many migrants will end up where the jobs are and, to some extent, where other migrants from their home region have already settled.This will provide some start-up comfort and support and for many bridge the language barrier of the host country.由于劳动力的自由流动是欧盟建立的基本原则之一，所有哪里有工作，哪里移民就多，并且那里通常有很多来自相同故土的移民已经定居下来。这可以在初期提供一些安慰和支持，为东道国缓解一些语言障碍隔阂障碍。
The magnitude of the problem now is enormous.Net long-term migration to the UK(immigration less emigration)was estimated to be 330,000 in the calendar year ended March 2015 whilst at a rough guess, Germany may receive 400,000 to 500,000 more immigrants this year than it expected just six months ago.现在这个问题的重要性不容小觑啦！截止2015年3月，英国的长期净移民估计有33万。粗略估计一下，德国今年接收的外来移民会达到40万至50万，远远超出6个月前的预期。
If so, this would add 0.5%-0.6% to the German resident population.For the EU average as a whole, the increase may be half that scale.如果实际情况真是如此，德国的居住人口将增加0.5%-0.6%。对整个欧洲的平均水平而言，增长的人口将是德国规模的一半。
The most common nationality by far of those currently arriving in Greece and Italy is Syrian.Other common nationalities are Eritrean, Afghan, Somali, and Iraqi.In most cases they are fleeing civil war, violence and oppression.Those who do make it to the UK are highly likely to be granted refugee status or humanitarian protection.Legally and morally, they are not illegal immigrants, still less “bogus asylum seekers”.But that’s not the whole story by any means: a considerable number are from countries in west Africa, including Nigeria and Ghana.Here the motivations for most are likely to be primarily economic.目前抵达希腊和意大利的外来移民主要是叙利亚人。其他还有厄立特里亚人，阿富汗人，索马里人和伊拉克人。他们主要是为逃离内战，暴力和压迫。那些成功到达英国的人，很可能被授予难民身份，或给予人道主义保护。在法律和道义上，他们不是非法移民，也不是“虚假的寻求庇护者”。但无论如何，这也不是整个事情的全貌：还有相当数量的人来自西非国家，包括尼日尼亚和加纳。这里，多数人的动机可能主要出于经济上的考虑。
The EU needs to formulate some common response now, and quickly.These should include: a clearer foreign policy designed to stabilise Syria and Libya.The EU should also urge Turkey to play a fully constructive role.And the EU should put serious financial pressure on Eritrea to reform itself like next-door Ethiopia.现在欧盟需要制定一些通用的应对措施，并且要快。这些措施包括一个更加明朗的外交政策，旨在稳定叙利亚和利比亚。欧盟也敦促土耳其充分发挥建设性的作用。欧盟还应该对厄立特里亚施加严肃的财政压力，促使其像其邻国埃塞俄比亚一样，进行改革。
The EU also needs a common definition as to who qualifies as a refugee and who can be sent back fast to safe countries of origin.A quota system to distribute refugees makes sense to process their claims fast.欧盟也需要一个统一的定义，以区分谁有资格作为难民，以及谁可以被快速安全地送回原籍国。按配额制度实施难民分配，对于快速处理难民请求还是非常有帮助的。
But those who are accepted may ultimately move to where the jobs are and not respect an initial quota distribution between, say, Germany and Hungary or Britain and France for very long.但那些被接收的难民可能最终前往有工作的地方，并不遵从最初的配额分配，比如在德国和匈牙利之间，或英国和法国之间。
So what economic benefits are likely? Well migration does represent a small stimulus to aggregate demand.Economists estimate that extra spending on migration-related issues may amount to 0.3% to 0.4% of annual GDP in Germany.Similar results could be expected in a few other countries like Britain or the Netherlands.Some countries may even use immigration as a reason to exceed fiscal targets.那么，这会给经济带来哪些实惠呢？妥善处理的外来移民确实会给总需求带来一点小小的激励。经济学家预测，与移民问题相关的额外开支在德国年GDP中占据0.3%-0.4%的份额。其他国家，比如英国或者荷兰，情况也大致相似。还有些国家甚至可能以外来移民作为理由，超额实现财政目标。
On balance, the result could be a near-term stimulus to demand of some 0.2% of Eurozone GDP for the current half of 2015 and probably the same for 2016.总之，这一结果可能对需求有短期的刺激作用，对2015年上半年而言，在欧元区GDP中的贡献占据0.2%，也许2016年也是如此。
Longer term as the refugees integrate and work the GDP benefits will be greater.The consultancy Oxford Economics, for example, estimates that the inflow of refugees into Germany may add 0.6% to GDP by the end 2020 and cut inflationary pressures by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%.长期来看，随着难民的与当地融合及就业，GDP贡献率会更高。比如，咨询公司牛津经济研究院估计，流入德国的难民，截止到2020年年底，会为GDP贡献0.6%的增长，并把通胀压力缩减0.2个百分点，下降到1.6%。
Oxford Economics say their numbers do take into account the argued negative side of large scale immigration surges such as Housing shortages , rising rents , increased burdens on the social services , hospitals , schools , policing, not to mention the impact on initial unemployment, and costs to the taxpayer in benefits payments.该研究院还表示，这一数据也涵盖了大量移民涌入的消极影响，比如住房短缺，租金上涨，社会服务、医院、学校、警力负担加重、更别提这些因素对初始失业的影响，及其对纳税人福利支付的成本影响等。
These shorter term factors could also have an impact levels of government taxation and with it their ability to meet their short to medium term debt targets.这些短期因素对政府税收也有一个影响级别，以及在此影响下，政府满足其短期和中期债务目标的能力。
That generalization made, however, it is also clear that no simple or single policy response can be appropriate.Clearly, the impact that this latest crisis will depend upon its length and depth, and this is still largely unknown and here lies the major difficulty in arriving at an assessment of the impact of the crisis on migration which is the lack of reliable and timely data.然而，也很清楚地是，简单单一的政策反应是不合适的。显然，最近这次危机的影响将取决于危机的深度和广度，现在仍不得而知，目前的主要困难在于评价移民危机的影响，但仍缺乏及时可靠的数据。
Everything depends on how quickly the refugees are processed and allowed to work.And given language training.一切都取决于难民能否快速得到安置并允许难民开始工作。还有给难民进行语言培训。
One of the ironies about Europe’s state of panic about migration across the Mediterranean is that for a number of years policymakers have been warning that Europe’s population is ageing and, in many countries, shrinking.The EU’s total fertility rate is just over 1.5 – you don’t need to be a demographer to work out the long-term implications.If it weren’t for migration, the EU’s working-age population would already be shrinking.欧洲对于跨越地中海的移民持恐慌态度，而欧洲的政策制定者多年来一直嚷着欧洲多国人口正在老龄化，在萎缩，这真的是颇具讽刺意义。欧洲的整体生育率才刚刚超过1.5，你不需要成为人口学家也能算出这其中的长期含义。要不是外来移民，欧洲的劳动年龄人口应该已经萎缩了。
Last year, deaths exceeded births in both Greece and Italy – where the vast majority of the migrants arrived – and in Germany, where the largest number end up.Like that of the UK, Germany’s economy is creating jobs faster than the natives can fill them.去年，希腊和意大利的死亡率超过出生率，现在大批的移民去了希腊和意大利，然而最终在德国安定下来的最多。与英国相比，德国创造工作岗位的速度大于其岗位填补的速度。
But to realise this supply potential for GDP growth it is vital that recipient countries keep their labour markets flexible and upgrade their education systems.但要这种潜在的供给实现对GDP增长的贡献，接收国一定要保持劳动力市场的灵活性，并升级教育体系。
These refugees have taken huge risks to get to Europe.And arguably these refugees often tend to be more entrepreneurial people.Otherwise, why would they have fled? They should be a net long term gain for an economy, not a burden.为了抵达欧洲，这些难民也承受了巨大的风险。但无可争辩的是，这些难民通常更具有创业精神。否则，他们为什么要逃离呢？对一个经济体而言，他们应该是长期的净收益，而不是负担。
As a British economist we can’t help thinking of the enormous benefits the UK economy has gained over time from the influx of refugees.One only has to think of the Jews fleeing Nazi persecution or the Asian refugees from Uganda.Both groups became highly productive and useful members of British society.And, their descendants are still building on the previous generations heritage today.The worst possible policy response for governments like Germany or Britain would be to tighten employment laws.These two countries are a draw for immigrants thanks to their recent labour market dynamics.Though it is clear that populist opinion is hampering the decision making by respective their governments who are clearly trying to do the right by the humanitarian issues whilst seeking to placate those at home who fear for their own employment and standards of living.作为一个英国经济学家，我禁不住想到一段时间后，难民的涌入对英国经济的巨大好处。你只要想想犹太人逃离纳粹，或者亚洲人逃离乌干达，就知道了。这两类人都成为英国社会的优秀成员，产出很高。他们的后代也在继承先辈的基础上，为社会做出新的贡献。政府可能做出的最坏的政策反应，比如德国政府或英国政府，可能就是收紧劳动法。由于其劳动力市场的近期动态，德国和英国倒是吸引不少移民。显然，尽管民粹主义的观点妨碍了各自政府的决定，政府显然试图做出正确人道的决策，并试图安抚那些在家里担心自己就业状况和生活水平的人。
They are treading a very fine line here because if Britain and Germany make it more difficult to create jobs, they could store-up enormous social trouble for the future.For example, raising minimum wages and tightening rules for temporary work contracts would not seem to be the right policies when you have a rising level of immigrants.他们也是在走钢丝，因为如果英国和德国难以创造更多的就业岗位，那他们就给未来埋下大量的社会问题。比如，当移民水平不断上升时，提高最低工资水平，严格临时工作合同，似乎就不太明智了。
Immigration is a very contentious issue.It touches upon fundamental questions of culture and national identity.移民问题确实非常棘手。它涉及到文化和民族认同上的基本问题。
A rise in immigration as we have seen only too well in the last UK election campaign often triggers some right-wing populist backlash.Governments should do their utmost to avoid this happening.在过去英国的竞选活动中，移民增加通常激发右翼民粹主义的回归。政府应尽量避免右翼民粹主义的回归。
But the bigger story in Europe remains that the Eurozone economy is now creating jobs at a reasonable rate.France currently is an exception to this.But, so long as Europe does not get its policy response badly wrong, Europe can cope with the economic and political impact of immigration.但是欧洲的大背景依然是欧元区经济正以合理的速度创造工作岗位。当然，法国例外。但是，只要欧洲的政治反应不要错得太离谱，欧洲依然能解决好移民问题的经济影响和政治影响。
Perhaps the most important lesson to be learned here is the need to distinguish long-term from short-term trends in the migration and development nexus.Clearly EU governments need to continue to prepare for the migrants they need The current thinking and data on migration in general tends to be problematic and this is even starker in the current climate coming as it has amidst the global economic slowdown and with governments in the developed world struggling to keep their respective economies float.The EU needs to work quickly now or the continuing levels of dissention will eat like a cancer into the very heart of the Union and the new found levels of confidence in the euro will quickly erode once gain putting the currency under threat once more.As we have noted in previous reviews on the Greek crisis the fate of the single currency remains under threat and has most bank research analysts looking for parity with the dollar within the next twelve months This is primarily because more QE will be needed for longer to help the Eurozone economy grow again.This also means interest rates will also remain low as the ECB battles to inject more life into the Eurozone economy.But while this is going on US growth is likely to remain steady to possibly rising further despite the recent anxiety over last week’s Fed decision to keep rates on hold for at least another month or so.In this environment then a decisive and coordinated action plan over the immigrant issue can only help to restore some much needed confidence in the market all round.也许，这里最重要的教训，是需要区分移民和发展关系中的长期趋势和短期趋势。显然，欧洲政府要继续为他们需要的移民做准备。目前关于移民的想法和数据，总体来说，是有问题的，甚至在当前背景下看是刻板的，因为欧洲也处于全球经济下滑的大背景下，发达国家的政府也正努力保持各自的经济浮动。欧洲现在必须要行动快，否则分歧的持续升级会像癌症一样侵蚀欧盟的心脏，欧元新建起来的信心也将再次迅速消失，让欧元再一次受到威胁。我们在前几期希腊危机的评论中指出，单一货币的命运依然受到威胁，多数银行的研究员都预计未来12个月里，欧元兑美元将跌至平价。这主要是因为欧洲经济的再次增长需要更多的量化宽松支持。这也表明利率将继续保持低位，因为欧洲央行意欲给欧洲经济注入更多活力。但与此同时，美国经济可能依然稳定，也可能进一步增长，尽管担心上周美联储决定把利率不变的状态至少再维持一个月或更久。在此背景下，针对移民问题作出一个果断和协调一致的行动计划只能有助于重拾市场必须的一些信心。
This has been Alex Heath reporting to you for GKFX
这就是本期的Alex Health 视频报道。
Goodbye and….Thanks for watching
再见，感谢您的观看。
第四篇：沃尔玛诚信危机升级
沃尔玛诚信危机升级
日期:20111014
作者： 来源：经济导报 【 查看PDF版】
◆导报记者 邵好 济南报道
出售假冒“绿色猪肉”的重庆沃尔玛或将面临严厉惩处。9日，重庆市食品安全工作新闻发布会宣布，当日起，沃尔玛在重庆的10家分店将陆续接受15天的停业整顿处罚。其中，7家分店已于9日停业，其余3家待调查取证完成后再予以实施。对此，沃尔玛官方表示，已经同意重庆市工商局作出的处罚决定，决定将沃尔玛在重庆当地的13家门店全部暂停营业15天。“沃尔玛的现象并非个案，其他超市可能也存在类似问题。沃尔玛的被关注度比较高，且暴露出的问题在行业内的影响也比较大。”13日，中国人民大学商学院营销系副教授牛海鹏接受经济导报记者采访时表示。涉案37人罚款269万元12日，导报记者在沃尔玛济南泉城路店采访时发现，“绿色猪肉”并没有在济南沃尔玛超市内销售。“济南沃尔玛没有卖过绿色猪肉。”该店生鲜部工作人员告诉导报记者。在该工作人员的指引下，导报记者看到，肉类产品专区内摆放着两个品牌的猪肉产品，分别为普通猪肉和“无公害猪肉”，均没有“绿色猪肉”。一位济南市民也告诉导报记者，并未在该沃尔玛超市见过“绿色猪肉”。今年9月初，沃尔玛重庆分店被指销售假冒“绿色猪肉”。在相关部门的调查下，重庆沃尔玛出售假冒绿色猪肉的行为被曝光：自去年1月以来，重庆沃尔玛凤天分店、松青路分店等多家分店以普通猪肉冒充“绿色食品”猪肉对外销售，涉案销售金额190万余元。事发后，重庆市工商局依法没收其违法所得，并处罚款269万元。12日，重庆警方打假总队通报称，由于涉嫌用普通猪肉假冒“绿色猪肉”销售，欺骗消费者，沃尔玛“重庆事件”涉案人员已达37人。其中，已有25人被刑事拘留，2人被逮捕，7人被监视居住，另有3人被取保候审。值得注意的是，这并不是沃尔玛第一次受罚，入驻重庆5年来，沃尔玛多家门店因销售过期食品、不合格食品和虚假宣传等行为，累计已被工商部门处罚21次，仅今年就被处罚了9次。管理不严漏洞频出
“或许沃尔玛并非为了利益有意欺诈、做假，毕竟这是一家全球性企业，问题曝光后会对其信誉和形象产生不利影响，而通过做假带来的利润并不大。”牛海鹏说。牛海鹏认为，沃尔玛多次受罚问题出在管理上，其在进货检验、商品管理等问题上可能存在漏洞。因为管理制度本土化不彻底等，不能及时发现和避免管理漏洞。沃尔玛作为零售商，所售产品大部分并非自产，虽然问题出现在销售环节，但是牛海鹏认为应当反思和考问整个商品流通链条。“从生产到流通，每个环节都应当严格把关。产品出现问题，上下游都不能推卸责任。”他说。牛海鹏认为，相关的监管部门也应该对此作出反思。突击检查应当变为经常性、持续性监督，及时发现问题。
第五篇：欧洲债务危机模拟希腊发言
近年爆發的歐洲債務危機在歷經幾次跌宕起伏後進入了暫時平穩狀態。在這次危機中，不只歐元區，甚至全球經濟都籠罩在陰霾之下。而我國希臘，受到了重大衝擊，爲了走出陰霾，推出一系列經濟改革措施已是刻不容緩。應對這一危機，首先要推行國內的改革。然而，兩年來的大力度緊縮措施未見成效，反引發了國民的反感情緒，令社會動蕩。因此，在新一輪的改革當中，我國將採取較為緩和的緊縮措施，具體如裁減公務員薪金，以內閣官員為首減薪三成，以減少政府開支。第二，政府亦將會致力於打擊貪污、嚴查偷逃欠稅，例如成立獨立稅務調查組，或召開專門會議等。此舉可望為國庫增加超過100億歐元收入，並使企業開支可以真正投放於提升營運收益。第三，我國會重整國内現正處於困難局面的金融體系，例如鼓勵銀行合併或暫時國有化銀行，將規模做大，增加資金流動性，提升競爭力，從而達到海外融資的條件，獲取更多融資機會與發展資金。更重要的，我國也將從‘開源’方面著手，大力發展經濟產業，重振本土經濟。以佔國民生產總值最大比例，逾15%的旅遊業為例，我國將善用擁有豐富旅遊資源這項優勢，配以希臘古典文化作為賣點，向世界各地推廣希臘旅遊業，並以提升旅遊業的國民生產總值百分比至20%為目標。我國更將會透過改善旅遊配套（如興建綜合渡假區、郵輪碼頭以及提升酒店業服務質素）帶動各類周邊產業，如零售業、運輸業、建造業等，從而刺激經濟並降低失業率。
然而以我國目前的經濟狀況，單憑一己之力並不足以克服這一難題，因此外界的援助必不可缺。為此，我國將增加與世界各國及歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織的接觸，尋求及爭取更多的資金援助，並申請歐洲穩定機制，以獲取緊急貸款。我國亦希望通過與各界商討，修改原有債務條款，放鬆援助條件，例如將歐盟及國際貨幣基金組織的赤字控制期限延遲兩年，以便繼續發行債券作融資。
雖然各界目前對希臘的經濟前景態度並不樂觀，但正所謂 ‚山重水復疑無路，柳暗花明又一村‛，我們相信憑著新一輪經濟改革措施，輔以各界的援助，我國的財政赤字必將慢慢縮小，債務水平亦將逐步降低。我們會竭盡所能，為希臘，也為全球經濟的未來創造轉機。
在全球化的大背景下，各國經濟可謂牽一髮，動全身, 歐洲一體化更是不能逆轉。如果希臘步冰島之後塵，甚至退出歐元區，將會使債權國損失上千億歐元，並引起市場新一輪信心危機，使各國債務危機惡化；那樣的結果，相信也絕非各國所樂見。希臘會盡最大的努力，做好本份，也希望可以得到各國的援助和支持。
点击咨询 